Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He’s only been disappointing when he’s injured.Cook has been disappointing...not sure you want to ride or die on that one.
That being said, Cook does have limited wiggle...I nailed that one.
He’s only been disappointing when he’s injured.Cook has been disappointing...not sure you want to ride or die on that one.
That being said, Cook does have limited wiggle...I nailed that one.
Josh Jacobs' Le'Veon Bell-like skill-setBama might have one of the best lines in the game, but every line makes mistakes and it was rarely Jacobs' fault when he was tackled for a loss. Sometimes he would lose a yard, but a lesser back would have lost 3-4. It reminds me a bit of Leveon coming out of Mich St. Their line would consistently put him in position to be tackled for a loss or at the line, and he'd earn a little extra, and Jacobs does the same thing.
Its interesting to hear Kennedy ask Jacobs what he is thinking and seeing on each of these plays.Raiders.com correspondent breaks down film with Josh Jacobs
It's all highlights, but it helps show what he's capable of, and he shows the ability to remember all of his plays and admit when he makes mistakes. Not going to change any minds I don't think, but helped reaffirm him as the 1.01 for me.
ALAMEDA, Calif. — Raiders rookie Josh Jacobs donned a No. 28 white jersey, black shorts and white shoes when stretching Tuesday with teammates before the start of practice.
His practice never began.
The chance to see the team’s second of three first-round picks participate in organized team activities (OTAs) will wait. The exact reason for the former Alabama running back’s departure is unclear, but it appeared to be planned. Doug Martin handled most of the starter reps.
“We have a lot of guys that are on different programs right now,” coach Jon Gruden said. “We’re not playing for a while. Jacobs will be back, if not late this week, early next week. He’s taking part in the walkthroughs. We’re fast tracking him to be ready.”
Didnt he also sit out the combine because of a pulled muscleBronco Billy said:So he hurt himself stretching? Definitely 1.01 material...
It’s almost like his use case and injury history might mean something.Didnt he also sit out the combine because of a pulled muscle
Where did you see this? I haven't seen this anywhere.Bronco Billy said:So he hurt himself stretching? Definitely 1.01 material...
This is all I've seen reported, didn't take part in practice, but that it was planned.The exact reason for the former Alabama running back’s departure is unclear, but it appeared to be planned
What’s the diagnosis, doc? Steroid usage?Didnt he also sit out the combine because of a pulled muscle
funnyWhat’s the diagnosis, doc? Steroid usage?
Where was it reported that he was sitting due to a pulled muscle?funny
guy seems to have had 2 uncomfirmed pulled muscles within the last 4 months. That's a red flag to me
Henderson has had hammy issues each of the last two seasons. How worried should we be about these guys?funny
guy seems to have had 2 uncomfirmed pulled muscles within the last 4 months. That's a red flag to me
I don’t worry much about it at all since he did more in one season than Jacobs did his entire career.Henderson has had hammy issues each of the last two seasons. How worried should we be about these guys?
A guy who has had 2 unconfirmed muscle strains within 4 months is alarming to me. Especially when people are blindly taking him 1.1Henderson has had hammy issues each of the last two seasons. How worried should we be about these guys?
I see.A guy who has had 2 unconfirmed muscle strains within 4 months is alarming to me. Especially when people are blindly taking him 1.1
Isn't this the key word? You're assuming it's a muscle strain, where has that been reported? I can't find a mention of it anywhere.A guy who has had 2 unconfirmed muscle strains within 4 months is alarming to me. Especially when people are blindly taking him 1.1
Just cash out while you still can.Isn't this the key word? You're assuming it's a muscle strain, where has that been reported? I can't find a mention of it anywhere.
This. It’s idiotic.Isn't this the key word? You're assuming it's a muscle strain, where has that been reported? I can't find a mention of it anywhere.
Yep. They dont have to report injuries right now, so we will never know, but it's quite obvious he missed practice for a reason; he didnt get all dressed to stretch and go inside. but to each their own. bookmarking for laterIsn't this the key word? You're assuming it's a muscle strain, where has that been reported? I can't find a mention of it anywhere.
Maybe he had the runs.Yep. They dont have to report injuries right now, so we will never know, but it's quite obvious he missed practice for a reason; he didnt get all dressed to stretch and go inside. but to each their own. bookmarking for later
Right. But he could’ve had the s h i t s for all anyone knows, yet you spew nonsense about two muscle pulls in months RED FLAG! And the first was before the combine, which very possibly was his agent advising him not to participate in the combine (which if the case, was sage advise). FFS.Yep. They dont have to report injuries right now, so we will never know, but it's quite obvious he missed practice for a reason; he didnt get all dressed to stretch and go inside. but to each their own. bookmarking for later
Sure, maybe. Then just say he was ill. Dont say "well everyone is on a different program" give me a break.Maybe he had the runs.
Never mind I was wrong. Williams had 12 rushing attempts and 1 reception in the preseason 2005.IIRC Cadilac William's barely did anything during otas and training camp after being selected in the 1st round by Gruden and the Bucs at that time.
This had no bearing on how Gruden used William's in the regular season. William's got a lot of action once the regular season started but got injured after a 40 touch game week 3.
He also has a half dozen unconfirmed murders to his name.funny
guy seems to have had 2 uncomfirmed pulled muscles within the last 4 months. That's a red flag to me
With these injury issues, he is off my board.How far are we dropping him with this news? Is 1.05 too high, now? How likely is this to be a chronic issue?
Whether the recent injury is news at all is sort of irrelevant. What is relevant is that people have been brushing one more thing aside to make him the top back without even acknowledging his collegiate career was littered with injuries while he was a part time back. He made Fred Taylor look like Emmitt Smith. But let’s put all that aside and think he’s going to gloriously get 300+ touches.He also has a half dozen unconfirmed murders to his name.
Probably an unconfirmed streaking incident.
And, while no one can confirm it, he might also have an unconfirmed habit of tossing macaroni noodles at the neighborhood cats.
I didn't suggest otherwise, don't drag me into your unabashed hatred for the guy.Whether the recent injury is news at all is sort of irrelevant. What is relevant is that people have been brushing one more thing aside to make him the top back without even acknowledging his collegiate career was littered with injuries while he was a part time back. He made Fred Taylor look like Emmitt Smith. But let’s put all that aside and think he’s going to gloriously get 300+ touches.
I didn't suggest otherwise, don't drag me into your unabashed hatred for the guy.
who among us hasn't tossed a few noodles at cats?he might also have an unconfirmed habit of tossing macaroni noodles at the neighborhood cats.
I said nothing about you being a horrible nor biased poster. You have unabashed hatred for the guy, you've made that clear, and I'm not interested in debating him with you. Taking a guy at good value doesn't change any facts, it just means you recognize good value and a chance to flip him for a profit.
Ya certainly no reason to not like a guy who had multiple injuries with no 1000 yard season who was then a sub replacement athlete who everyone makes excuse after excuse after excuse for. I didn’t drag anyone into anything. Sorry for being a voice in the dark for everyone’s 1.01. Sheep gonna sheep though.
ETA: So unabashed, I begrudgingly had him in my top tier at the end of the day. Just because I wouldn’t want him until Henderson, Montgomery and Sanders are off the board make me such a horrible and biased poster, amirite?
I find these kinds of composites very interesting. I didn't see any of their historical data other than the small table of bad scores, is there one available?Some very familiar historical names on the list below, plus some interesting comparisons
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Josh Jacobs, Alabama
BackCAST Score: -39.3%
RecIndex: +0.02
Similar Historical Prospects: Chris Perry, Julius Jones
If you have been following the 2019 draft prospects closely, you might have thought that we had forgotten Josh Jacobs, who many consider to be the best running back in this class. Jacobs' BackCAST is unusually low for a running back who could go in the first two rounds.
Below is a chart of the running back prospects selected in the first two rounds of the draft who have the lowest BackCAST projections:
You had me until this. Any stat that ranks Kamara worst out of 50 has to be garbage.Of the top 50 most productive running backs in BackCAST's database, only one running back -- Alvin Kamara -- had a worse AOEPS than Jacobs.
You had me until this. Any stat that ranks Kamara worst out of 50 has to be garbage.
I do admit the first list does look concerning though.
I find these kinds of composites very interesting. I didn't see any of their historical data other than the small table of bad scores, is there one available?
In fairness, I wouldn't refer to a subjectively-created predictive model as 'facts'. From what I can tell, the model places heavy emphasis on YPC adjusted for total # of carries (seemingly without adjusting for defensive competition), playing time %, and weight-adjusted 40 times. These are all already noted 'short-comings' of Jacobs, with at least reasonable rationalizations for each that have been thoroughly discussed upthread.Bronco Billy said:Use or discards facts anyway you choose.
Here's another major miss from 2016:BackCAST is expressed in terms of the percentage that the running back is projected to over-perform or under-perform the average running back prospect. For example, a player who has a +50.0% BackCAST score is expected to be 1.5 times as productive as the average drafted running back. Conversely, a player with a BackCAST score of -50.0% is expected to be only half as productive as the average drafted running back.
BackCAST also includes "RecIndex," which measures whether the player is likely to be a ground-and-pound two-down back, a player who catches passes out of the backfield more often than he takes handoffs, or something in between. In short, RecIndex measures the likelihood that the player records a disproportionately high or low number of receiving yards versus his rushing yards. The two factors that are significant in predicting RecIndex are receiving yards per game in college and weight, as smaller players are more likely to be receiving backs.
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Alvin Kamara, Tennessee
BackCAST Score: -30.4%
RecIndex: +0.71
Alvin Kamara is not a hopeless case, but it is unusual for a player with this many holes in his BackCAST projection to be rated as a second-round pick by scouts. Kamara had trouble getting carries for the Tennessee Volunteers, posting a -14.2% AOEPS. It would be one thing if Kamara had been stuck behind a particularly talented teammate, but the available evidence does not suggest that Kamara was permanently locked in some sort of Thurman Thomas/Barry Sanders situation (both played for Oklahoma State at the same time). Kamara was the clear second running back behind Jalen Hurd as a sophomore (though, in all fairness, Hurd was considered a possible future high-round draft pick at the time). During Kamara's junior year, Hurd battled injuries and his production cratered, resulting in an abrupt decision to transfer from Tennessee. Even with Hurd out of the picture, Kamara barely edged out sophomore running back and former three-star recruit John Kelly for carries. It certainly could be the case that Tennessee's coaches failed to realize what they had in Kamara and that his NFL career will prove them wrong for failing to give him the rock enough times to shine. However, Kelly was actually more productive than Kamara on a per-carry basis, so Tennessee's coaches were not clearly wrong to platoon their backs.
Other signs that Kamara could be a transcendent talent stuck in a bad situation are just not there. Kamara ran a 4.56-second 40-yard dash at 214 pounds -- those are firmly average numbers. Kamara averaged more than 6 yards per carry, which is good, but not unusual for a back with relatively low attempts, nor is it a number that makes Kamara stand out amongst the running back prospects in this class. Kamara has strong receiving numbers, but that should only get him so far. Would teams spend a second-round pick on a player who was going to be the next Travaris Cadet?
The following table provides the BackCAST and RecIndex numbers for all of the halfback prospects invited to this year's NFL combine.
BackCAST Projections, 2017 Combine Invitees
Name | School | Weight | 40 | AOEPS | Adj Y/A | Rcyds/G | BackCAST | RecIndex
Leonard Fournette | LSU | 240 | 4.51 | 11.8% | 6.22 | 16.4 | +142.2% | -0.01
Dalvin Cook | Florida St. | 210 | 4.49 | 20.7% | 6.50 | 24.6 | +136.0% | 0.61
Joe Mixon | Oklahoma | 228 | 4.45 | 1.9% | 6.16 | 35.8 | +115.7% | 0.90
Brian Hill | Wyoming | 219 | 4.54 | 20.6% | 5.53 | 10.9+ | 84.6% | -0.07
Marlon Mack | South Florida | 213 | 4.50 | 11.5% | 6.16 | 13.8 | +80.8% | 0.10
Christian McCaffrey | Stanford | 202 | 4.48 | 9.1% | 6.21 | 32.8 | +76.2% | 0.99
Samaje Perine | Oklahoma | 233 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 6.02 | 8.9+ | 72.9% | -0.27
Jeremy McNichols | Boise St. | 214 | 4.49 | 8.3% | 5.6 | 132.0+ | 69.5% | 0.86
Elijah McGuire | Louisiana-Lafayette | 214 | 4.53 | 1.9% | 6.06 | 27.3+ | 50.3% | 0.66
D'Onta Foreman | Texas | 233 | 4.58 | -3.4% | 6.26 | 5.4+ | 43.9% | -0.42
Elijah Hood | North Carolina | 232 | 4.59 | 2.0% | 5.89 | 6.4+ | 43.5% | -0.37
Kareem Hunt | Toledo | 216 | 4.62 | 6.0% | 6.32 | 12.6+ | 40.6% | 0.03
Stanley Williams | Kentucky | 212 | 4.51 | -2.9% | 6.41 | 8.8 | +30.1% | -0.10
Aaron Jones | UTEP | 208 | 4.56 | 1.7% | 6.25 | 18.5 | +27.8% | 0.34
Donnel Pumphrey | San Diego St. | 176 | 4.48 | 12.8% | 6.05 | 19.2 | +12.0% | 0.63
James Conner | Pittsburgh | 233 | 4.65 | -1.2% | 5.59 | 10.6 | +9.1% | -0.20
Wayne Gallman | Clemson | 215 | 4.60 | 8.5% | 5.06 | 11.6 | -3.1% | -0.01
Matt Dayes | North Carolina St. | 205 | 4.47 | -5.2% | 5.19 | 20.7 | -22.6% | 0.46
Jamaal Williams | BYU | 210 | 4.59 | 0.1% | 5.37 | 13.2 | -26.0% | 0.10
Alvin Kamara | Tennessee | 214 | 4.56 | -14.2% | 5.69 | 28.5 | -30.4% | 0.71
T.J. Logan | North Carolina | 196 | 4.37 | -10.5% | 5.42 | 13.5 | -31.6% | 0.23
Joe Williams | Utah | 190 | 4.41 | -11.9% | 5.75 | 10.1 | -49.8% | 0.13
Justin Davis | USC | 208 | 4.53 | -9.8% | 5.35 | 9.3 | -54.3% | -0.05
De'Veon Smith | Michigan | 223 | 4.57 | -7.2% | 4.55 | 6.1 | -61.7% | -0.30
Corey Clement | Wisconsin | 220 | 4.68 | -8.9% | 5.37 | 7.2 | -67.7% | -0.24
Christopher Carson | Oklahoma St. | 218 | 4.58 | -16.9% | 5.23 | 14.2 | -71.5% | 0.08
Jahad Thomas | Temple | 190 | 4.62 | 1.2% | 4.62 | 21.7 | -97.0% | 0.62
Rushel Shell | West Virginia | 227 | 4.74 | -10.4% | 4.58 | 9.7 | -100.0% | -0.18
Dare Ogunbowale | Wisconsin | 213 | 4.65 | -17.0% | 4.99 | 12.7 | -100.0% | 0.05
Devine Redding | Indiana | 205 | 4.76 | 1.9% | 4.45 | 7.4 | -100.0% | -0.10
Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State
BackCAST Score: +46.2%
RecIndex: -0.04
Ezekiel Elliott is a nice prospect who is probably overrated as a high first-round pick. On the positive side, Elliott has a nice size/speed combination -- he recorded a 4.45-second 40-yard dash at 225 pounds. Elliott also had a great 6.69 yards per attempt for the Ohio State Buckeyes. However, Ohio State's offense was highly prolific during Elliott's stay, and it averaged 5.61 yards per attempt on non-Elliott runs.
Interestingly Elliott's projection also suffers because he only carried the ball on 51 percent of Ohio State's rushing attempts during his junior year, which was his best season. However, Ohio State gave few carries to running backs other than Elliott. Rather, Elliott lost carries to Ohio State's quarterbacks. We actually looked at re-calculating peak rushing percentage by subtracting out quarterback runs to see if it made the model stronger. However, it turns out that subtracting quarterback runs actually makes this factor (and the whole model) much weaker. It's interesting to think about why this might be so. It could be that running backs compete with quarterbacks for rushing attempts in the same way they compete with other running backs, or that rushing in a backfield with a running quarterback could cause the running back's numbers to be overstated in a way not captured by other metrics.
(Also, the rushing totals used here are based on official college stats and thus include sacks as runs, not passes; at some point, depending on how far back we can get clean data, we plan on analyzing these percentages with sacks removed from team rushing totals.)
Given his higher draft projection, Elliott is still probably the best bet to be the best back of this class. However, he lacks the statistical indicators that have been harbingers of elite running backs in the past. Especially given the relatively low value of the running back position in the modern NFL, a team picking in the top ten might be well advised to go in a different direction with its pick.
Based on what, did I miss something or are you just basing this on 1998 in the chart? Not busting chops, I would like to see the rest of their data and not just the snippet that supports the theme of their article.Bronco Billy said:Looks like they have at least 21 years of data evaluating all RBs in each draft - but you’re welcome to ask them.
Of course. The noodles are his penis. Unfortunately, the cat is just a cat. Dr. O is a major perv.tangfoot said:Euphemism?