Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Josh Jacobs, GB (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Jacobs looks like a solid if not elite prospect. He has starting back talent, inarguably so with a shared load.
To me, his trajectory relies on three things:
1) He has yet to play a down in the pros. You never know until you know.
RISK: Medium-Low. Jacobs is not in the same league prospect-wise as Barkley, but I think his style, skills, and proven ability at the college level will translate.
2) He is unproven handling a 3-down load
RISK: Medium. Not sure Gruden's offensive philosophy dictates needing a 3-down back (he seemed much more attuned to a Thunder/Lightning, more dynamic attack), but with Jacobs' ability with both his feet and his hands, he can be used situationally for all 3 downs. As for how he handles the wear and tear of playing against the big boys? Again, you never know until you know, but that downside is also tempered by not coming into the league with a lot of wear on the tires already.
3) The Raiders O-line was a complete sieve made out of hot, stinking garbage last year, with a completely inept, incompetent, bungling, maladroit o-line coach in Cable.
RISK: Medium-High. To me, this is the biggest issue for Jacobs' success -- in the NFL and fantasy-wise. Hudson, Jackson, and Trent Brown look to be a solid if not spectacular anchor middle-to-right (still some questions about whether Brown's last year was an anomaly or a trend), but Good and Miller on the left side is still shaky. Cable loves Z-block, and Jacobs one-cut style seems to suit it. But this t me is the biggest impediment to Jacobs' success.
To me, his trajectory relies on three things:
1) He has yet to play a down in the pros. You never know until you know.
RISK: Medium-Low. Jacobs is not in the same league prospect-wise as Barkley, but I think his style, skills, and proven ability at the college level will translate.
2) He is unproven handling a 3-down load
RISK: Medium. Not sure Gruden's offensive philosophy dictates needing a 3-down back (he seemed much more attuned to a Thunder/Lightning, more dynamic attack), but with Jacobs' ability with both his feet and his hands, he can be used situationally for all 3 downs. As for how he handles the wear and tear of playing against the big boys? Again, you never know until you know, but that downside is also tempered by not coming into the league with a lot of wear on the tires already.
3) The Raiders O-line was a complete sieve made out of hot, stinking garbage last year, with a completely inept, incompetent, bungling, maladroit o-line coach in Cable.
RISK: Medium-High. To me, this is the biggest issue for Jacobs' success -- in the NFL and fantasy-wise. Hudson, Jackson, and Trent Brown look to be a solid if not spectacular anchor middle-to-right (still some questions about whether Brown's last year was an anomaly or a trend), but Good and Miller on the left side is still shaky. Cable loves Z-block, and Jacobs one-cut style seems to suit it. But this t me is the biggest impediment to Jacobs' success.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Finally got to watch more tape on him and the more I watch the more I'm convinced he's the 1.01 over Harry (or anyone else). There were plays where he lost yardage, but that was only when his O-line was completely blown up, like by Jeffrey Simmons, a beast. Or other times where his guards completely whiffed on blocks. Bama might have one of the best lines in the game, but every line makes mistakes and it was rarely Jacobs' fault when he was tackled for a loss. Sometimes he would lose a yard, but a lesser back would have lost 3-4. It reminds me a bit of Leveon coming out of Mich St. Their line would consistently put him in position to be tackled for a loss or at the line, and he'd earn a little extra, and Jacobs does the same thing.
I like his game speed, his ability to break tackles, the power he can generate (like pulling 2 defenders with him for a first down), and I really like his blocking. His blocking will be what allows him to be on the field for all 3 downs. He definitely needs to work on his route running, but I think that he's capable of being one of the top pass catching backs in the league and he is a solid hands catcher, rarely bringing the ball into his body for a catch.
My favorite play I've seen so far was against Miss St where he was goal to go, he runs forward and 2 defenders come up to block him, he has a jump cut that makes both of them fall down and he powers through an arm tackle to get a TD. It was a testament to his drive and agility. There was a 2nd play against Miss St that was great, and he lost 1-2 yards. The QB gets flushed so he blocks, then moves up to catch the screen. The defense reads it so they're ready as soon as the pass is thrown, but it's thrown off target and Jacobs is able to reach out and snag it one-handed. Then he gets crushed and holds onto it. It would have been better for Bama if he had dropped it instead of losing the 1-2 yards, but that pass catching ability is impressive.
The main downside I see with him is also one of his assets, his physicality. He has a tendency to use his head as a battering ram, leading with his shoulder, but also getting his helmet in play, and that just won't last long term. If he can adjust this and keep his head safe, and sometimes avoid trying to land the big hit on defenders, I think that will add to his career longevity. I was nervous about his lack of play in college, but when you look at the other RBs that Bama had to offer, and his skills at blocking, it makes more sense. There are numerous plays with 2 RBs on the field and he's used similar to a FB leading the charge, often for big gains. It's not how an NFL coach would use a player with those skills, but it worked for Bama.
I am fairly confident that he'll be a top 15 RB this season and a potential top 10 back for several seasons to come (assuming he stays healthy).
I like his game speed, his ability to break tackles, the power he can generate (like pulling 2 defenders with him for a first down), and I really like his blocking. His blocking will be what allows him to be on the field for all 3 downs. He definitely needs to work on his route running, but I think that he's capable of being one of the top pass catching backs in the league and he is a solid hands catcher, rarely bringing the ball into his body for a catch.
My favorite play I've seen so far was against Miss St where he was goal to go, he runs forward and 2 defenders come up to block him, he has a jump cut that makes both of them fall down and he powers through an arm tackle to get a TD. It was a testament to his drive and agility. There was a 2nd play against Miss St that was great, and he lost 1-2 yards. The QB gets flushed so he blocks, then moves up to catch the screen. The defense reads it so they're ready as soon as the pass is thrown, but it's thrown off target and Jacobs is able to reach out and snag it one-handed. Then he gets crushed and holds onto it. It would have been better for Bama if he had dropped it instead of losing the 1-2 yards, but that pass catching ability is impressive.
The main downside I see with him is also one of his assets, his physicality. He has a tendency to use his head as a battering ram, leading with his shoulder, but also getting his helmet in play, and that just won't last long term. If he can adjust this and keep his head safe, and sometimes avoid trying to land the big hit on defenders, I think that will add to his career longevity. I was nervous about his lack of play in college, but when you look at the other RBs that Bama had to offer, and his skills at blocking, it makes more sense. There are numerous plays with 2 RBs on the field and he's used similar to a FB leading the charge, often for big gains. It's not how an NFL coach would use a player with those skills, but it worked for Bama.
I am fairly confident that he'll be a top 15 RB this season and a potential top 10 back for several seasons to come (assuming he stays healthy).
Last edited by a moderator:
LawFitz
Footballguy
steelers1080
Footballguy
Raiders.com correspondent breaks down film with Josh Jacobs
It's all highlights, but it helps show what he's capable of, and he shows the ability to remember all of his plays and admit when he makes mistakes. Not going to change any minds I don't think, but helped reaffirm him as the 1.01 for me.
It's all highlights, but it helps show what he's capable of, and he shows the ability to remember all of his plays and admit when he makes mistakes. Not going to change any minds I don't think, but helped reaffirm him as the 1.01 for me.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Its interesting to hear Kennedy ask Jacobs what he is thinking and seeing on each of these plays.
I wish more teams would do something like this with their rookies. Its not like they would be giving up anything of their teams game plan talking about college plays.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
So he hurt himself stretching? Definitely 1.01 material...
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Pfffffttttttttt....
this thread...
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Didnt he also sit out the combine because of a pulled muscleBronco Billy said:
Last edited by a moderator:
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
It’s almost like his use case and injury history might mean something.Didnt he also sit out the combine because of a pulled muscle
steelers1080
Footballguy
Where did you see this? I haven't seen this anywhere.Bronco Billy said:
This is all I've seen reported, didn't take part in practice, but that it was planned.
Let other people worry about about not practicing in a May OTA, keep your eye on the prize:
3. Josh Jacobs: Offensive rookie of the year?
I don't think it's any shock that the expectation is that Josh Jacobs will be used a lot. But I was surprised when, after I asked Jacobs about his expected passing-game usage with the Oakland Raiders, he told me he's been lining up in the slot and even outside. "Oh yeah," he said after I gave him a look. "They got me all over the place." Jacobs told me that coaches have told him they expect him to be in the offensive rookie of the year conversation because of how much they are going to place on him.
http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/26800322/fantasy-football-nflpa-rookie-premiere-takeaways-too-low-kyler-murray
3. Josh Jacobs: Offensive rookie of the year?
I don't think it's any shock that the expectation is that Josh Jacobs will be used a lot. But I was surprised when, after I asked Jacobs about his expected passing-game usage with the Oakland Raiders, he told me he's been lining up in the slot and even outside. "Oh yeah," he said after I gave him a look. "They got me all over the place." Jacobs told me that coaches have told him they expect him to be in the offensive rookie of the year conversation because of how much they are going to place on him.
http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/26800322/fantasy-football-nflpa-rookie-premiere-takeaways-too-low-kyler-murray
Biabreakable
Footballguy
IIRC Cadilac William's barely did anything during otas and training camp after being selected in the 1st round by Gruden and the Bucs at that time.
This had no bearing on how Gruden used William's in the regular season. William's got a lot of action once the regular season started but got injured after a 40 touch game week 3.
This had no bearing on how Gruden used William's in the regular season. William's got a lot of action once the regular season started but got injured after a 40 touch game week 3.
Last edited by a moderator:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
What’s the diagnosis, doc? Steroid usage?Didnt he also sit out the combine because of a pulled muscle
Last edited by a moderator:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
funny
guy seems to have had 2 uncomfirmed pulled muscles within the last 4 months. That's a red flag to me
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Henderson has had hammy issues each of the last two seasons. How worried should we be about these guys?
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I don’t worry much about it at all since he did more in one season than Jacobs did his entire career.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
A guy who has had 2 unconfirmed muscle strains within 4 months is alarming to me. Especially when people are blindly taking him 1.1
Last edited by a moderator:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
steelers1080
Footballguy
Isn't this the key word? You're assuming it's a muscle strain, where has that been reported? I can't find a mention of it anywhere.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yep. They dont have to report injuries right now, so we will never know, but it's quite obvious he missed practice for a reason; he didnt get all dressed to stretch and go inside. but to each their own. bookmarking for later
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
FWIW, my post was tongue-in-cheek. But Gruden did say he was not practicing after stretching but that he was participating in walk throughs.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
How far are we dropping him with this news? Is 1.05 too high, now? How likely is this to be a chronic issue?
Last edited by a moderator:
Right. But he could’ve had the s h i t s for all anyone knows, yet you spew nonsense about two muscle pulls in months RED FLAG! And the first was before the combine, which very possibly was his agent advising him not to participate in the combine (which if the case, was sage advise). FFS.
And bookmarking this for what? If he pulls a muscle in October, you’re going to bump your post and say “see, I told you he had a muscle pull when he sat out of the first day of OTAs back in May!”
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Sure, maybe. Then just say he was ill. Dont say "well everyone is on a different program" give me a break.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Never mind I was wrong. Williams had 12 rushing attempts and 1 reception in the preseason 2005.
It was Benson and and Ronnie Brown who held out during training camp not Williams.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
He also has a half dozen unconfirmed murders to his name.
Probably an unconfirmed streaking incident.
And, while no one can confirm it, he might also have an unconfirmed habit of tossing macaroni noodles at the neighborhood cats.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Whether the recent injury is news at all is sort of irrelevant. What is relevant is that people have been brushing one more thing aside to make him the top back without even acknowledging his collegiate career was littered with injuries while he was a part time back. He made Fred Taylor look like Emmitt Smith. But let’s put all that aside and think he’s going to gloriously get 300+ touches.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Some very familiar historical names on the list below, plus some interesting comparisons
**********************
link
Josh Jacobs, Alabama
BackCAST Score: -39.3%
RecIndex: +0.02
Similar Historical Prospects: Chris Perry, Julius Jones
If you have been following the 2019 draft prospects closely, you might have thought that we had forgotten Josh Jacobs, who many consider to be the best running back in this class. Jacobs' BackCAST is unusually low for a running back who could go in the first two rounds.
Below is a chart of the running back prospects selected in the first two rounds of the draft who have the lowest BackCAST projections:
Worst Backcast for 1st/2nd round RBs 1998-2019
Joe Montgomery -73.7%
Kenny Irons -63.2%
Brandon Jackson -60.6%
John Avery -46.8%
Chris Henry -45.5%
Josh Jacobs -39.3%
Julius Jones -38.2%
Travis Henry -35.1%
Montario Hardesty -33.0%
Christine Michael -26.3%
Ameer Abdullah -21.9%
DeShaun Foster -14.7%
Mike Cloud -12.8%
Chris Perry -12.7%
Montee Ball -9.5%
That is not a great list. So why is BackCAST so down on Jacobs?
When a running back fails to even lead his own team in rushing attempts, it is typically a major red flag. Here, Jacobs had fewer carries than his teammate, Damien Harris, whom BackCAST does not particularly like either. In terms of yards, Jacobs was not even the second-leading rusher on his own team. That distinction goes to sophomore Najee Harris, who had three fewer carries but 140 more rushing yards. Of the top 50 most productive running backs in BackCAST's database, only one running back -- Alvin Kamara -- had a worse AOEPS than Jacobs.
That leads to another issue with Jacobs' prospects -- his relative inefficiency. Last year, Jacobs averaged only 5.33 yards per carry, which was a full half-yard per carry less than Damien Harris and nearly a yard and a half per carry less than Najee Harris. Indeed, Damien Harris is a similar prospect to Jacobs, but he edges Jacobs out in BackCAST because he had a larger share of Alabama's carries and a higher average yards per carry.
To top it off, Jacobs appears to be rather slow. Jacobs did not run at the combine, but reports from his pro day suggest that he, at the fastest, ran the 40-yard dash in 4.60 seconds. That is not a time that will doom a running back to failure, but slow college running backs who succeed at the NFL level typically have more college production than Jacobs. Unfortunately for Jacobs, his BackCAST numbers are simply poor overall.
**********************
link
Josh Jacobs, Alabama
BackCAST Score: -39.3%
RecIndex: +0.02
Similar Historical Prospects: Chris Perry, Julius Jones
If you have been following the 2019 draft prospects closely, you might have thought that we had forgotten Josh Jacobs, who many consider to be the best running back in this class. Jacobs' BackCAST is unusually low for a running back who could go in the first two rounds.
Below is a chart of the running back prospects selected in the first two rounds of the draft who have the lowest BackCAST projections:
Worst Backcast for 1st/2nd round RBs 1998-2019
Joe Montgomery -73.7%
Kenny Irons -63.2%
Brandon Jackson -60.6%
John Avery -46.8%
Chris Henry -45.5%
Josh Jacobs -39.3%
Julius Jones -38.2%
Travis Henry -35.1%
Montario Hardesty -33.0%
Christine Michael -26.3%
Ameer Abdullah -21.9%
DeShaun Foster -14.7%
Mike Cloud -12.8%
Chris Perry -12.7%
Montee Ball -9.5%
That is not a great list. So why is BackCAST so down on Jacobs?
When a running back fails to even lead his own team in rushing attempts, it is typically a major red flag. Here, Jacobs had fewer carries than his teammate, Damien Harris, whom BackCAST does not particularly like either. In terms of yards, Jacobs was not even the second-leading rusher on his own team. That distinction goes to sophomore Najee Harris, who had three fewer carries but 140 more rushing yards. Of the top 50 most productive running backs in BackCAST's database, only one running back -- Alvin Kamara -- had a worse AOEPS than Jacobs.
That leads to another issue with Jacobs' prospects -- his relative inefficiency. Last year, Jacobs averaged only 5.33 yards per carry, which was a full half-yard per carry less than Damien Harris and nearly a yard and a half per carry less than Najee Harris. Indeed, Damien Harris is a similar prospect to Jacobs, but he edges Jacobs out in BackCAST because he had a larger share of Alabama's carries and a higher average yards per carry.
To top it off, Jacobs appears to be rather slow. Jacobs did not run at the combine, but reports from his pro day suggest that he, at the fastest, ran the 40-yard dash in 4.60 seconds. That is not a time that will doom a running back to failure, but slow college running backs who succeed at the NFL level typically have more college production than Jacobs. Unfortunately for Jacobs, his BackCAST numbers are simply poor overall.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Ya certainly no reason to not like a guy who had multiple injuries with no 1000 yard season who was then a sub replacement athlete who everyone makes excuse after excuse after excuse for. I didn’t drag anyone into anything. Sorry for being a voice in the dark for everyone’s 1.01. Sheep gonna sheep though.
ETA: So unabashed, I begrudgingly had him in my top tier at the end of the day. Just because I wouldn’t want him until Henderson, Montgomery and Sanders are off the board make me such a horrible and biased poster, amirite?
Last edited by a moderator:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I said nothing about you being a horrible nor biased poster. You have unabashed hatred for the guy, you've made that clear, and I'm not interested in debating him with you. Taking a guy at good value doesn't change any facts, it just means you recognize good value and a chance to flip him for a profit.
Ya certainly no reason to not like a guy who had multiple injuries with no 1000 yard season who was then a sub replacement athlete who everyone makes excuse after excuse after excuse for. I didn’t drag anyone into anything. Sorry for being a voice in the dark for everyone’s 1.01. Sheep gonna sheep though.
ETA: So unabashed, I begrudgingly had him in my top tier at the end of the day. Just because I wouldn’t want him until Henderson, Montgomery and Sanders are off the board make me such a horrible and biased poster, amirite?
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I find these kinds of composites very interesting. I didn't see any of their historical data other than the small table of bad scores, is there one available?
LawFitz
Footballguy
You had me until this. Any stat that ranks Kamara worst out of 50 has to be garbage.
I do admit the first list does look concerning though.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Looks like they have at least 21 years of data evaluating all RBs in each draft - but you’re welcome to ask them.
LawFitz
Footballguy
In fairness, I wouldn't refer to a subjectively-created predictive model as 'facts'. From what I can tell, the model places heavy emphasis on YPC adjusted for total # of carries (seemingly without adjusting for defensive competition), playing time %, and weight-adjusted 40 times. These are all already noted 'short-comings' of Jacobs, with at least reasonable rationalizations for each that have been thoroughly discussed upthread.Bronco Billy said:
That said, thanks for posting it. 'Twas and interesting read, and something I'll keep an eye on going forward. Looks like the model only likes Dalvin Henderson this year.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2017/backcast-2017
Here's another major miss from 2016:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/introducing-backcast
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Of course. The noodles are his penis. Unfortunately, the cat is just a cat. Dr. O is a major perv.tangfoot said:
