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Foreign Elections Thread - Currently: Brazil 🇧🇷 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Don Quixote
- Start date
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I'm sure the next general election will be free and clear of tampering or rigging.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
In Blow to Beijing, Taiwan Re-elects Tsai Ing-wen as President
The victory was a remarkable comeback for Ms. Tsai and suggested that Beijing’s pressure campaign had backfired.
The victory was a remarkable comeback for Ms. Tsai and suggested that Beijing’s pressure campaign had backfired.
- Defeat for populist authoritarianism in the west Pacific.
ren hoek
Footballguy
How would it have been populist for a pro-China govt to take the reins in Taiwan? Isn't a pro-Taiwan sovereignty candidate winning over a pro-China candidate populist in effect?
I think it's a misuse of the term populist to apply it to a foreign govt trying to assert power in another country's elections.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Election in Peru tomorrow for new Congress.
Peru’s Vote for a New Congress Could Shape the President’s Legacy
After suspending the country’s Congress last fall, new legislative elections could give Martín Vizcarra the support he needs to confront corruption—or lead to renewed political gridlock.
BY JOE PARKIN DANIELS | JANUARY 24, 2020, 5:12 PM
LIMA, Peru—Peru spent the last few months of 2019 facing a constitutional crisis, but some in the Andean nation remain optimistic that the turbulence in the halls of power could ultimately provide a shot in the arm for the president’s anti-corruption efforts. Following months of steadfast opposition from the unicameral Congress and an effort to unseat him, President Martín Vizcarra dissolved the legislative body altogether at the end of September, which then turned around and suspended him. Vizcarra, who with public and military backing remained the country’s de facto leader, called legislative elections, to be held on Jan. 26, to solve the impasse. Meanwhile, Peru’s top court ruled last week that Vizcarra’s closure of Congress was legal.
At the time, much of the public applauded Vizcarra’s move, and Peruvians have been consistently in favor of the president’s anti-corruption efforts. Unlike a number of protests that emerged in other Latin American countries late last year, including Chile and Colombia, protests after the closure ended quickly.
Since he assumed office in 2018, many of Vizcarra’s popular reforms have been blocked by the hard-line Popular Force party, which held a majority in Congress until its dissolution. “What happened in Congress underscores the shamelessness to which the legislative majority has fallen,” Vizcarra said at the time, taking particular umbrage at the opposition’s attempts to install judges to the court that would ultimately decide how the impasse is settled. “Peruvian people, we have done all we could.”
Much has changed since Congress was dissolved last fall, and the outcome of the upcoming election is anything but certain. Twenty-one parties are running in the election, and all are polling badly.
However, much has changed since Congress was dissolved last fall, and the outcome of the upcoming election is anything but certain. Twenty-one parties are running in the election, and all are polling badly. Furthermore, a significant number of voters have signaled their intent to submit blank ballots. Yet the consensus of observers is that centrists seem likely to come out best, and if enough legislators continue to support Vizcarra’s anti-corruption drive, the president could make a significant impact before the next election in 2021....
Peru’s Vote for a New Congress Could Shape the President’s Legacy
After suspending the country’s Congress last fall, new legislative elections could give Martín Vizcarra the support he needs to confront corruption—or lead to renewed political gridlock.
BY JOE PARKIN DANIELS | JANUARY 24, 2020, 5:12 PM
LIMA, Peru—Peru spent the last few months of 2019 facing a constitutional crisis, but some in the Andean nation remain optimistic that the turbulence in the halls of power could ultimately provide a shot in the arm for the president’s anti-corruption efforts. Following months of steadfast opposition from the unicameral Congress and an effort to unseat him, President Martín Vizcarra dissolved the legislative body altogether at the end of September, which then turned around and suspended him. Vizcarra, who with public and military backing remained the country’s de facto leader, called legislative elections, to be held on Jan. 26, to solve the impasse. Meanwhile, Peru’s top court ruled last week that Vizcarra’s closure of Congress was legal.
At the time, much of the public applauded Vizcarra’s move, and Peruvians have been consistently in favor of the president’s anti-corruption efforts. Unlike a number of protests that emerged in other Latin American countries late last year, including Chile and Colombia, protests after the closure ended quickly.
Since he assumed office in 2018, many of Vizcarra’s popular reforms have been blocked by the hard-line Popular Force party, which held a majority in Congress until its dissolution. “What happened in Congress underscores the shamelessness to which the legislative majority has fallen,” Vizcarra said at the time, taking particular umbrage at the opposition’s attempts to install judges to the court that would ultimately decide how the impasse is settled. “Peruvian people, we have done all we could.”
Much has changed since Congress was dissolved last fall, and the outcome of the upcoming election is anything but certain. Twenty-one parties are running in the election, and all are polling badly.
However, much has changed since Congress was dissolved last fall, and the outcome of the upcoming election is anything but certain. Twenty-one parties are running in the election, and all are polling badly. Furthermore, a significant number of voters have signaled their intent to submit blank ballots. Yet the consensus of observers is that centrists seem likely to come out best, and if enough legislators continue to support Vizcarra’s anti-corruption drive, the president could make a significant impact before the next election in 2021....
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Also, a key regional election in Italy tomorrow.
Salvini’s return? A regional vote in Italy risks further chaos in Rome
The face of anti-immigration politics in Italy could be about to make a comeback amid an election in the northeast region of Emilia-Romagna.
Matteo Salvini, head of the right-leaning Lega party, left the Italian government abruptly in the summer of 2019 after clashing with his coalition partner – the Five Star Movement (M5S), a party supportive of more social benefits. Salvini decided to put forward a motion of no confidence on the then prime minister Giuseppe Conte. His move, dubbed by critics as an attempt to govern Italy alone, led M5S to join forces with Partito Democratico (PD) – a pro-European social democratic party, averting the need for a snap election and thus stopping Salvini from potentially forming a government.
However, with regional elections due later this month, analysts are wondering whether Salvini could return to government soon.
“The regional election in Emilia-Romagna on 26 January is by far the most important political event that could determine the shelf life of the government,” Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of the research firm Teneo, said in a note Friday.
The region of Emilia Romagna, which includes the emblematic city of Bologna, has traditionally supported left-leaning parties. However, polls suggest that the candidate for the anti-immigration Lega party could win the vote and give the party its ninth consecutive win in regional ballots since the last national election in 2018, according to Reuters.
“Salvini has been campaigning in the region since November, pledging to ‘liberate’ it from the left. A PD (Partito Democratico) defeat at the hands of Salvini’s Lega would strip the center-left party of its symbolic heartland, and likely trigger an internal confrontation,” Piccoli added.
If the upcoming regional vote ends up seeing a victory for the Lega party, both the PD and the M5S would be under pressure – potentially leading their current government to an end.
“The (election) risks are significant because a loss could not only encourage the PD to leave its coalition with the M5S as it looks for a new identity, but it could also trigger an implosion of the M5S,” Erik Jones, professor of European Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Italy, told CNBC Monday.
“The M5S does not typically do well in regional elections and is currently polling only at about 8% in the region. But this region is also where M5S started, and where it first entered into local government. So, a devastating loss here will fuel ammunition for those who don’t like (Luigi) Di Maio (M5S’ leader) and who worry that the Movement has lost its way.”
Furthermore, a Lega victory in Emilia Romagna could resurface concerns about the Italian economy.
“The (regional) election will not bring back Salvini itself. But it will reveal the popularity of Salvini and the Lega, respectively,” Marc Wagner, senior economist at Commerzbank, told CNBC Monday via email.
Salvini’s Lega party is currently above all other political parties in nationwide polls, with 31% of support, followed by the PD with 19%.
“The risks coming with Salvini are clear-cut: with his strict anti-immigration policy, anti-austerity, anti-EU and pro-Russia stance there will be again stress with the EU. But Salvini will also be harmful for the Italian economy: his socialist policy of redistribution will not bring Italy’s economy forward and set it on a higher growth path,” Wagner from Commerzbank also said.
Italy is the European country with the second highest public debt pile at around 130% of GDP (gross domestic product). On top of that, its economy is barely growing. According to the Italian statistics office, Istat, the economy grew at a pace of 0.1% in the third quarter of 2019 from the previous three-month period.
The regional vote is adding pressure to the M5S-PD coalition at a time when they are also discussing plans to change the constitution, in a way that it reduces the number of lawmakers. M5S has pushed for the change, arguing that there are too many parliamentarians and thus a drag on taxpayers’ money. However, some members of the coalition partner, PD, are against the reform.
“Given the government’s divide in major political issues, I suppose the government may not… last beyond 2020,” Wagner from Commerzbank also said.
Salvini’s return? A regional vote in Italy risks further chaos in Rome
The face of anti-immigration politics in Italy could be about to make a comeback amid an election in the northeast region of Emilia-Romagna.
Matteo Salvini, head of the right-leaning Lega party, left the Italian government abruptly in the summer of 2019 after clashing with his coalition partner – the Five Star Movement (M5S), a party supportive of more social benefits. Salvini decided to put forward a motion of no confidence on the then prime minister Giuseppe Conte. His move, dubbed by critics as an attempt to govern Italy alone, led M5S to join forces with Partito Democratico (PD) – a pro-European social democratic party, averting the need for a snap election and thus stopping Salvini from potentially forming a government.
However, with regional elections due later this month, analysts are wondering whether Salvini could return to government soon.
“The regional election in Emilia-Romagna on 26 January is by far the most important political event that could determine the shelf life of the government,” Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of the research firm Teneo, said in a note Friday.
The region of Emilia Romagna, which includes the emblematic city of Bologna, has traditionally supported left-leaning parties. However, polls suggest that the candidate for the anti-immigration Lega party could win the vote and give the party its ninth consecutive win in regional ballots since the last national election in 2018, according to Reuters.
“Salvini has been campaigning in the region since November, pledging to ‘liberate’ it from the left. A PD (Partito Democratico) defeat at the hands of Salvini’s Lega would strip the center-left party of its symbolic heartland, and likely trigger an internal confrontation,” Piccoli added.
If the upcoming regional vote ends up seeing a victory for the Lega party, both the PD and the M5S would be under pressure – potentially leading their current government to an end.
“The (election) risks are significant because a loss could not only encourage the PD to leave its coalition with the M5S as it looks for a new identity, but it could also trigger an implosion of the M5S,” Erik Jones, professor of European Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Italy, told CNBC Monday.
“The M5S does not typically do well in regional elections and is currently polling only at about 8% in the region. But this region is also where M5S started, and where it first entered into local government. So, a devastating loss here will fuel ammunition for those who don’t like (Luigi) Di Maio (M5S’ leader) and who worry that the Movement has lost its way.”
Furthermore, a Lega victory in Emilia Romagna could resurface concerns about the Italian economy.
“The (regional) election will not bring back Salvini itself. But it will reveal the popularity of Salvini and the Lega, respectively,” Marc Wagner, senior economist at Commerzbank, told CNBC Monday via email.
Salvini’s Lega party is currently above all other political parties in nationwide polls, with 31% of support, followed by the PD with 19%.
“The risks coming with Salvini are clear-cut: with his strict anti-immigration policy, anti-austerity, anti-EU and pro-Russia stance there will be again stress with the EU. But Salvini will also be harmful for the Italian economy: his socialist policy of redistribution will not bring Italy’s economy forward and set it on a higher growth path,” Wagner from Commerzbank also said.
Italy is the European country with the second highest public debt pile at around 130% of GDP (gross domestic product). On top of that, its economy is barely growing. According to the Italian statistics office, Istat, the economy grew at a pace of 0.1% in the third quarter of 2019 from the previous three-month period.
The regional vote is adding pressure to the M5S-PD coalition at a time when they are also discussing plans to change the constitution, in a way that it reduces the number of lawmakers. M5S has pushed for the change, arguing that there are too many parliamentarians and thus a drag on taxpayers’ money. However, some members of the coalition partner, PD, are against the reform.
“Given the government’s divide in major political issues, I suppose the government may not… last beyond 2020,” Wagner from Commerzbank also said.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Salvini beat back in Italy....
Italy’s Center-Left Incumbents Hold Off Salvini to Win Crucial Election
The contest in a stronghold of Italy’s left became the most closely watched Italian regional election in years
ROME—Italy’s wobbly government coalition breathed a sigh of relief after the center-left Democratic Party won a crucial regional election on Sunday, seeing off a strong challenge by Matteo Salvini’s far-right League.
With most of the votes counted, Stefano Bonaccini, the Democratic incumbent president of Emilia-Romagna, was re-elected with 51% of the vote. The League’s candidate, Lucia Borgonzoni, won 44% of the vote.
The contest in the affluent northern region of Emilia-Romagna became the most closely watched Italian regional election in years as Mr. Salvini campaigned there relentlessly to oust the incumbent Democrats.
Emilia-Romagna has been a stronghold of Italy’s left throughout the post-World War II era. But as in much of Europe, mainstream left-of-center parties are struggling to hold on to their traditional working-class voters, opening up new opportunities for nationalist, anti-immigration politicians such as Mr. Salvini.
Despite the Democrats’ win in their own historic heartland, the foundations on which Italy’s coalition government between the Democrats and the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement rests remain fragile. Democrats are struggling to increase their popularity and win back disillusioned voters who in recent years have turned to other parties including the League.
The 5 Star Movement, meanwhile, is in steep decline. Its candidate won only 3% of votes in Emilia-Romagna, and just 7% in another regional election Sunday in the southern region of Calabria, where 5 Star was popular until recently. The presidency of Calabria went to a center-right candidate backed by the League.
After becoming one of Europe’s strongest antiestablishment parties and coming first in 2018 national elections with 33% of the vote, 5 Star lost its way and most of their popular support, after leading members struggled to transition from opposition to governing. The movement’s leader Luigi Di Maio resigned last week, following a string of defections among his lawmakers.
Mr. Salvini remains Italy’s rising political force, despite the League failing to win Emilia-Romagna. Opinion polls suggest the League would win national elections if held soon. Mr. Salvini’s problem is that although he is calling for snap elections, he can’t force them: He needs the Democrat-5 Star coalition to break down.
The Democrats’ win in Emilia-Romagna somewhat reduces the likelihood that the party will call time on their unhappy coalition with the 5 Star just yet.
Italy’s Center-Left Incumbents Hold Off Salvini to Win Crucial Election
The contest in a stronghold of Italy’s left became the most closely watched Italian regional election in years
ROME—Italy’s wobbly government coalition breathed a sigh of relief after the center-left Democratic Party won a crucial regional election on Sunday, seeing off a strong challenge by Matteo Salvini’s far-right League.
With most of the votes counted, Stefano Bonaccini, the Democratic incumbent president of Emilia-Romagna, was re-elected with 51% of the vote. The League’s candidate, Lucia Borgonzoni, won 44% of the vote.
The contest in the affluent northern region of Emilia-Romagna became the most closely watched Italian regional election in years as Mr. Salvini campaigned there relentlessly to oust the incumbent Democrats.
Emilia-Romagna has been a stronghold of Italy’s left throughout the post-World War II era. But as in much of Europe, mainstream left-of-center parties are struggling to hold on to their traditional working-class voters, opening up new opportunities for nationalist, anti-immigration politicians such as Mr. Salvini.
Despite the Democrats’ win in their own historic heartland, the foundations on which Italy’s coalition government between the Democrats and the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement rests remain fragile. Democrats are struggling to increase their popularity and win back disillusioned voters who in recent years have turned to other parties including the League.
The 5 Star Movement, meanwhile, is in steep decline. Its candidate won only 3% of votes in Emilia-Romagna, and just 7% in another regional election Sunday in the southern region of Calabria, where 5 Star was popular until recently. The presidency of Calabria went to a center-right candidate backed by the League.
After becoming one of Europe’s strongest antiestablishment parties and coming first in 2018 national elections with 33% of the vote, 5 Star lost its way and most of their popular support, after leading members struggled to transition from opposition to governing. The movement’s leader Luigi Di Maio resigned last week, following a string of defections among his lawmakers.
Mr. Salvini remains Italy’s rising political force, despite the League failing to win Emilia-Romagna. Opinion polls suggest the League would win national elections if held soon. Mr. Salvini’s problem is that although he is calling for snap elections, he can’t force them: He needs the Democrat-5 Star coalition to break down.
The Democrats’ win in Emilia-Romagna somewhat reduces the likelihood that the party will call time on their unhappy coalition with the 5 Star just yet.
msommer
Footballguy
Peru is a head scratcher. The Fujimori years led to them changing the constitution to have a term limit of one in a row for president (before they had two, but the Fujimori went for three...). This has essentially killed off/transformed idealogical political parties to become one man/woman vehicles of more or less populist nature.
I can't think of any president in the post Fujimori years whose party wasn\t demolished the next election, usually followed by a congressional inquiry of corruption.
Vizcarra may be different as he came up as number two in PKK's party.
Anyway, the Fujimoris have a strong grip on the congress the past two elections, leading to a lot of issues, not least Alberto Fujimori's release and subsequent re imprisonment (which ultimately felled PKK)
msommer
Footballguy
And the Fujimoris lost the election
It will be interesting to see if Vizcarra can swing a working alliance out of the centrist parties now in congress
Keiko has been returned to jail (not because of the vote but because an appelate judge issueda ruling), but there is little other clarity in the result.
It will be interesting to see if Vizcarra can swing a working alliance out of the centrist parties now in congress
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msommer
Footballguy
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Let em eat 
. i get sad when i hear the words Sinn Fein now 
. i get sad when i hear the words Sinn Fein now
msommer
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
Don Quixote
Footballguy
While we wait to see what government comes out of Ireland, an upcoming one in Iran, but, unfortunately, not going to be much to watch there.
With Most Reformists Barred, Iran's Parliamentary Elections Offer Little Choice
With Most Reformists Barred, Iran's Parliamentary Elections Offer Little Choice
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Ghani Is Named Afghan Election Winner. His Opponent Also Claims Victory.
After a five-month dispute, President Ashraf Ghani was announced as the winner. But a parallel declaration by his main rival threatens another crisis ahead of a potential U.S.-Taliban peace deal.
After a five-month dispute, President Ashraf Ghani was announced as the winner. But a parallel declaration by his main rival threatens another crisis ahead of a potential U.S.-Taliban peace deal.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Dictators are using the coronavirus to strengthen their grip on power
Authoritarians hate to squander an emergency. In the pandemic, they’ve found the perfect one.
Authoritarians hate to squander an emergency. In the pandemic, they’ve found the perfect one.
rockaction
Footballguy
Josh Kurlantzick, the author of the article, is the son of my old law professor, Lewis Kurlantzick, all-around brilliant and very cool guy. He teaches Copyright and Sports Law, along with core staples like Contracts and other requirements at UConn Law.
Great guy, Lewis. Helped me out a bunch in law school. He's actually responsible for your mp3 player that Congress had tried to block from existing but upon lawsuit, succumbed to his "device-shifting" argument as an end-around the DMCA, a paper and argument that can be found here, though I think the link might be broken
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-Audio-Home-Recording-Act-of-1992-and-the-of-Kurlantzick/e7bef3f2b7f2d1ff39b5995fe695c3b71ef050db
Great guy, Lewis. Helped me out a bunch in law school. He's actually responsible for your mp3 player that Congress had tried to block from existing but upon lawsuit, succumbed to his "device-shifting" argument as an end-around the DMCA, a paper and argument that can be found here, though I think the link might be broken
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-Audio-Home-Recording-Act-of-1992-and-the-of-Kurlantzick/e7bef3f2b7f2d1ff39b5995fe695c3b71ef050db
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rockaction
Footballguy
As for the article itself, there is no doubt that once power has been granted and centralized, the hopes of the people ever getting it back decreases greatly in countries that have less restraint among their leaders and/or have nascent democratic institutions. It takes a leap of faith to determine that rights should be given over to men and women for our own good; the political capital of trust must remain at all-time highs for it to work. Corona obviously provides an opportunity for leaders to cynically seize power in front of the eyes of the world seemingly without the usual reproach. That said, the world and the people always know, the divorce of government from the individual already felt and known by the populace usually before the centralization even begins.
Thus we come to a unique time in America. It would seem that contrary to easy analysis, the President has decided to back off and let the states that comprise the union decide and fend for themselves. In a way, it is odd, this non-consolidation of power at the federal level. Often the executive would seize a chance to broaden its scope of power for either itself or its bureaucracies, and for all the howls against this particular President, we see the devolution of power from the federal government to the states. Gavin Newsom keeps referring to California as a "republic" and a "nation-state." The language is no accident. The question so far, then, becomes not whether the federal government will overreach tyrannically, but whether there is a vacuum of power that the states will or even can fill. Interesting times, sad ones, and certainly a zeitgeist that reflects the political upheaval and surprise that 2016 promised.
Anyway, dudes, that's my take.
Thus we come to a unique time in America. It would seem that contrary to easy analysis, the President has decided to back off and let the states that comprise the union decide and fend for themselves. In a way, it is odd, this non-consolidation of power at the federal level. Often the executive would seize a chance to broaden its scope of power for either itself or its bureaucracies, and for all the howls against this particular President, we see the devolution of power from the federal government to the states. Gavin Newsom keeps referring to California as a "republic" and a "nation-state." The language is no accident. The question so far, then, becomes not whether the federal government will overreach tyrannically, but whether there is a vacuum of power that the states will or even can fill. Interesting times, sad ones, and certainly a zeitgeist that reflects the political upheaval and surprise that 2016 promised.
Anyway, dudes, that's my take.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Polish president, battling for reelection, headed to runoff with Warsaw mayor
By Loveday Morris
June 28, 2020 at 5:37 p.m. EDT
Polish President Andrzej Duda failed to win enough of the vote in Sunday's election to avoid a runoff, according to exit polls, forcing him into what is expected to be a tightly fought contest with the liberal mayor of Warsaw next month.
Duda, the candidate of the governing populist Law and Justice party, was on track to win 41.8 percent of the vote, according to the polls, while Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski is expected to win 30.4 percent. He needed a majority to win outright. Turnout was high, at 62.9 percent.
Although Duda came out comfortably ahead on Sunday, analysts expect that to change in the runoff election in two weeks, as opposition voters whose support was split in the first round unite around Trzaskowski.
"It will be close," said Malgorzata Bonikowska, president of the Warsaw-based Center for International Relations. "People are voting for two different Polands. They are like fire and water."
The vote could reshape Poland's relationship with Europe. Duda has been a figurehead for the Law and Justice political program that has put it on a collision course with the European Union. Brussels accuses the government of threatening the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary.
His reelection uncertain, Polish president seeks a boost from Trump
Trzaskowski, a former member of the European Parliament who speaks seven languages, is known to have more amicable relations with Brussels.
Speaking at a jubilant election night event, Trzaskowski said the choice for voters would be between an "open Poland" and one that is "looking for an enemy," with a president who is trying to divide.
Duda, at his event, maintained that his advantage was “enormous” and said the choice was between “development” and a deterioration of the lives of normal Poles under the opposition. Social benefits for families have been a major pillar of Law and Justice policy.
The vote had been slated for May. Law and Justice wanted to keep to that schedule despite the country’s coronavirus outbreak. Poland has reported more than 33,900 cases and 1,438 deaths. The party was concerned that a delay could hurt its chances amid the resulting economic crisis and mounting scrutiny over how the government has responded to the virus. But its coalition partners insisted on pushing the vote back.
As polls tightened before the vote Sunday, Duda fell back on anti-LGBT rhetoric, branding gay and transgender rights as an “ideology” akin to communism, in an apparent effort to galvanize his base. But his comments caused a backlash even in staunchly Catholic Poland.
Members of Law and Justice had said they hoped Duda’s visit to Washington last week would boost his chances of reelection. But the trip fell short of initial expectations on the Polish side, with no firm details announced on the movement of U.S. troops to Poland.
Warsaw has been lobbying for the United States to increase its security presence in Poland, which its officials say is even more important following President Trump’s order this month to withdraw 9,500 troops from Germany.
Trump said Wednesday that he would send “some” of the troops he planned to pull out of Germany to Poland, but he made no new commitment to increase the number permanently based in the country.
Speaking during Duda’s visit to Washington, Trump said he believed the incumbent would be “very successful.”
Duda has worked to strengthen relations with Washington to counter Poland’s growing isolation within Europe as his government has become increasingly autocratic.
By Loveday Morris
June 28, 2020 at 5:37 p.m. EDT
Polish President Andrzej Duda failed to win enough of the vote in Sunday's election to avoid a runoff, according to exit polls, forcing him into what is expected to be a tightly fought contest with the liberal mayor of Warsaw next month.
Duda, the candidate of the governing populist Law and Justice party, was on track to win 41.8 percent of the vote, according to the polls, while Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski is expected to win 30.4 percent. He needed a majority to win outright. Turnout was high, at 62.9 percent.
Although Duda came out comfortably ahead on Sunday, analysts expect that to change in the runoff election in two weeks, as opposition voters whose support was split in the first round unite around Trzaskowski.
"It will be close," said Malgorzata Bonikowska, president of the Warsaw-based Center for International Relations. "People are voting for two different Polands. They are like fire and water."
The vote could reshape Poland's relationship with Europe. Duda has been a figurehead for the Law and Justice political program that has put it on a collision course with the European Union. Brussels accuses the government of threatening the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary.
His reelection uncertain, Polish president seeks a boost from Trump
Trzaskowski, a former member of the European Parliament who speaks seven languages, is known to have more amicable relations with Brussels.
Speaking at a jubilant election night event, Trzaskowski said the choice for voters would be between an "open Poland" and one that is "looking for an enemy," with a president who is trying to divide.
Duda, at his event, maintained that his advantage was “enormous” and said the choice was between “development” and a deterioration of the lives of normal Poles under the opposition. Social benefits for families have been a major pillar of Law and Justice policy.
The vote had been slated for May. Law and Justice wanted to keep to that schedule despite the country’s coronavirus outbreak. Poland has reported more than 33,900 cases and 1,438 deaths. The party was concerned that a delay could hurt its chances amid the resulting economic crisis and mounting scrutiny over how the government has responded to the virus. But its coalition partners insisted on pushing the vote back.
As polls tightened before the vote Sunday, Duda fell back on anti-LGBT rhetoric, branding gay and transgender rights as an “ideology” akin to communism, in an apparent effort to galvanize his base. But his comments caused a backlash even in staunchly Catholic Poland.
Members of Law and Justice had said they hoped Duda’s visit to Washington last week would boost his chances of reelection. But the trip fell short of initial expectations on the Polish side, with no firm details announced on the movement of U.S. troops to Poland.
Warsaw has been lobbying for the United States to increase its security presence in Poland, which its officials say is even more important following President Trump’s order this month to withdraw 9,500 troops from Germany.
Trump said Wednesday that he would send “some” of the troops he planned to pull out of Germany to Poland, but he made no new commitment to increase the number permanently based in the country.
Speaking during Duda’s visit to Washington, Trump said he believed the incumbent would be “very successful.”
Duda has worked to strengthen relations with Washington to counter Poland’s growing isolation within Europe as his government has become increasingly autocratic.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Don Quixote
Footballguy
From Politico Europe. Going to be close.
“BREAKING: Exit poll shows a very close Polish presidential election — incumbent Andrzej Duda at 50.4 percent and Rafał Trzaskowski at 49.6 percent. Story to come”
“BREAKING: Exit poll shows a very close Polish presidential election — incumbent Andrzej Duda at 50.4 percent and Rafał Trzaskowski at 49.6 percent. Story to come”
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Preliminary results showing a win for Duda...
https://www.politico.eu/article/duda-wins-polish-presidential-election-preliminary-result/
https://www.politico.eu/article/duda-wins-polish-presidential-election-preliminary-result/
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Unfortunately, a bit predictable...
Turkey’s crackdown on political opposition finds a favored target: Elected Kurdish mayors
To serve as a mayor from Turkey’s pro-Kurdish political party these days is to fear arrest at any moment and govern in circumstances that hover between stifling and absurd, said Ayhan Bilgen, one of the few who has kept his office during an unrelenting government purge.
His party’s mayoral candidates captured 65 Turkish municipalities when local elections were held in March 2019. During a subsequent crackdown by the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the authorities have effectively taken over all but 10 of the municipalities, while detaining at least 20 mayors....
Turkey’s crackdown on political opposition finds a favored target: Elected Kurdish mayors
To serve as a mayor from Turkey’s pro-Kurdish political party these days is to fear arrest at any moment and govern in circumstances that hover between stifling and absurd, said Ayhan Bilgen, one of the few who has kept his office during an unrelenting government purge.
His party’s mayoral candidates captured 65 Turkish municipalities when local elections were held in March 2019. During a subsequent crackdown by the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the authorities have effectively taken over all but 10 of the municipalities, while detaining at least 20 mayors....
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Released exit poll showing Lukashenka with 80% of the vote, and Tsikhanouskaya at 7%. LOL.
https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1292508528666648577?s=20 (Good Twitter follow for today, BTW.)
https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1292508528666648577?s=20 (Good Twitter follow for today, BTW.)
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
They needed to keep Lukashenka in. He's been a real trailblazer in his approach to COVID-19.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1292606289839824897?s=21
“It was the darkest day in Belarus modern history. Government waged a war against his people, brought army in cities, and targeted unarmed people with pepper spray, water cannons, guns and stun grenades.
“And same time - I am proud of my people. After 26 six years of humiliation, I see my nation awakening. They dream about freedom and independence, and they are ready to fight for it.”
“It was the darkest day in Belarus modern history. Government waged a war against his people, brought army in cities, and targeted unarmed people with pepper spray, water cannons, guns and stun grenades.
“And same time - I am proud of my people. After 26 six years of humiliation, I see my nation awakening. They dream about freedom and independence, and they are ready to fight for it.”
Don Quixote
Footballguy
https://www.vox.com/21509191/kyrgyzstan-protest-political-power-vacuum-explained
Kyrgyzstan in a bit of disarray due to annulled elections.
Kyrgyzstan in a bit of disarray due to annulled elections.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Bolivia’s election is a test for Latin American socialism — and democracy
LA PAZ, Bolivia — Half a century after the execution of leftist firebrand Ernesto "Che" Guevara in the Bolivian jungle, the forces of the political right and left are once again waging ideological war in this impoverished Andean nation.
Bolivia is heading toward a bitterly disputed presidential vote on Sunday, the outcome of which could spark violence regardless of the winner. The vote pits the socialists of Evo Morales, who ran the country for 13 years before he fled it last year, against rivals who are laboring to thwart their return to power. Each side claims that the other is planning to cheat to win, setting up a tense day of voting that could serve as the start of a prolonged struggle for the presidential sash....
LA PAZ, Bolivia — Half a century after the execution of leftist firebrand Ernesto "Che" Guevara in the Bolivian jungle, the forces of the political right and left are once again waging ideological war in this impoverished Andean nation.
Bolivia is heading toward a bitterly disputed presidential vote on Sunday, the outcome of which could spark violence regardless of the winner. The vote pits the socialists of Evo Morales, who ran the country for 13 years before he fled it last year, against rivals who are laboring to thwart their return to power. Each side claims that the other is planning to cheat to win, setting up a tense day of voting that could serve as the start of a prolonged struggle for the presidential sash....
John Maddens Lunchbox
Socialism for Dummies
New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern was returned with a massive swing of over 12% for her left wing government.
Her go hard and go early lockdown measures were among the toughest in the world and highly successful. In a proportional representational government she holds well over half the seats in her own right, with the Greens also holding a high percentage. The right wing National party lost heavily.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-prime-minister-wins-second-term-in-election-landslide/
Her go hard and go early lockdown measures were among the toughest in the world and highly successful. In a proportional representational government she holds well over half the seats in her own right, with the Greens also holding a high percentage. The right wing National party lost heavily.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-prime-minister-wins-second-term-in-election-landslide/
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Don Quixote
Footballguy
Socialists claim massive victory in Bolivia, one year after being ousted
LA PAZ, Bolivia — Exit polls issued early Monday showed Bolivia's socialists taking a seemingly insurmountable lead in the country's bitterly fought presidential election, a result that, if confirmed by the official tally, would amount to a massive popular rebuke of the right-wing forces that drove the left from power a year ago.
Sunday’s much-delayed election was a do-over of last year’s contest. That vote ended with longtime socialist President Evo Morales fleeing into exile as opponents alleged electoral fraud and supporters decried a “coup.”
Morales, banned from running this time, watched from Argentina as his former finance minister, front-runner Luis Arce, 57, faced two main competitors who sought to stop a socialist comeback: centrist former president Carlos Mesa, 67, and right-wing nationalist Luis Camacho, 41.
Bolivia’s election is a test for Latin American socialism — and democracy
The exit poll by the firm Ciesmori, with margin of error of less than 2 percentage points, indicated that Arce, the candidate of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, had claimed 52.4 percent of the vote, compared to Mesa’s 31.5 percent and Camacho’s 14.1 percent. A second exit poll by a group of universities and Catholic institutions showed similar figures, giving Arce 53 percent and Mesa 30.8 percent.
In a tweet, the right-wing, U.S.-backed interim president, Jeanine Áñez Chavez, noted that the official tally was still being counted. But she nevertheless recognized Arce’s apparent victory.
“We do not yet have an official count, but from the data we have, Mr. Arce and [his vice-presidential candidate] Mr. [David] Choquehuanca have won the election. I congratulate the winners and ask them to govern with Bolivia and democracy in mind.”
If the exit poll numbers are confirmed by the official count, which was being tabulated slowly late Sunday, it would be more than enough to avoid a November runoff and claim outright victory.
“We have recovered democracy,” Arce said in a public speech early Monday. “We promise to respond to our pledge to work and bring our program to fruition. We are going to govern for all Bolivians and construct a government of national unity.”
Experts cautioned that the exit polls are not the same as the official count, of which less than 5 percent was tallied by midnight. But they offered what many observers called a fairly precise snapshot of a huge wave of support for the socialists, who had ruled the country since 2006 before being forced out last year following claims of fraud.
One of Arce’s successful tactics appeared to be a major distancing of his candidacy from Morales. But the polarizing former president nevertheless seemed to portray the election as a vindication.
“Bolivia is an example to the world,” Morales told reporters in Buenos Aires. “Very soon our country will begin a new stage of great challenges. We must put aside differences and sectoral and regional interests to achieve a great national agreement."
In a surprise decision Saturday, Bolivia’s electoral tribunal announced it would not release the traditional quick-count projection of the outcome as initially expected Sunday. The tribunal said it would instead wait to release results until all ballots were counted or tallies showed an indisputable trend, something that could take at least a day or two, and potentially up to a week.
Late Sunday, Salvador Romero, head of the electoral council, would not confirm a timeline for releasing the definitive results.
“This process, at this stage, can be slower and accelerate progressively,” he told reporters in La Paz. “We ask the people for patience. We need to be certain about the results.”
An outright win for the socialists would amount to a major reversal of fortune for the powers that be in this impoverished Andean nation and mark a major victory for the Latin American left. It would also mark a stunning defeat for the right, which sought to sell its actions to purge the socialists in Bolivia as a “liberation” of the country — a liberation its people seemed not to want.
Áñez, a right-wing firebrand who took over after Morales’s exile, dropped out of the race due to low poll numbers. She has been blamed for haphazard handling of the coronavirus pandemic, as well as presiding over a wave of repression against leftists during her year in power. Observers say officials in her government as well as senior members of the military brass could potentially face charges from a new socialist government — although Arce told The Washington Post in an interview last week that he would not seek to influence the justice system.
“It’s an end to the politics of persecution and an opening for thorough, credible investigations of human rights violations, corruption and other irregularities,” said Kathryn Ledebur, director of the Andean Information Network. “Justice for these issues is the first crucial step toward reconciliation.”
Going into Sunday, opinion polls showed Arce close to the threshold needed for a first-round victory. To avoid a runoff, a candidate had to win more than 50 percent of the vote, or at least 40 percent with a 10-point margin of victory.
Analysts say Mesa, running second in the polls, would become the favorite in a second round of voting next month, assuming the opposition to the socialists coalesced around him. Camacho trailed both men in the polls by significant margins.
Carla Nina Martínez, a 30-year-old nurse voting in a rural area just south of La Paz, described herself as a longtime supporter of the left. But she said she was changing her vote this year to support Mesa.
“I value some things that President Evo Morales did. Everything was going very well,” she said. “But in the end, as always, politics end up being corrupt.”
A survivor of covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, she said she blamed the Áñez government for a poorly executed coronavirus plan.
“During the high points of the pandemic, we were never provided with personal protective equipment, and health personnel ended up being infected,” she said.
Santos Vallejo, 52, said the country’s bad economy in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic led him to vote for the socialists.
During Morales’s three terms, the socialists were credited with a successful drive to turn Bolivia into a leader in the effort to fight poverty in Latin America. At the same time, they embraced a “Socialist lite” approach that maintained relatively business-friendly policies — especially as compared to the more far more repressive and severe socialist government in Venezuela.
Under socialist governments, “we had jobs,” Vallejo said outside a polling station in El Alto, a socialist stronghold near La Paz. “I believe MAS will win because we, the poor, are with them.”
More than 10,000 troops were called to keep the peace. In a message clearly aimed at the socialists, Áñez’s influential interior minister, Arturo Murillo, led a show of force Saturday with soldiers and armored vehicles on the streets of La Paz. Murillo said the effort was meant to prevent “the return of dictators” — a clear reference to Morales, who was democratically elected three times before his controversial bid for a fourth term last year.
Arce has sought to distance himself from Morales. In an interview last week with The Post, Arce said Morales would need to face the justice system to defend himself against “numerous” charges if he returned.
“We think that our comrade Evo has every right, if he so wishes, to return to the country and defend himself,” Arce said.
LA PAZ, Bolivia — Exit polls issued early Monday showed Bolivia's socialists taking a seemingly insurmountable lead in the country's bitterly fought presidential election, a result that, if confirmed by the official tally, would amount to a massive popular rebuke of the right-wing forces that drove the left from power a year ago.
Sunday’s much-delayed election was a do-over of last year’s contest. That vote ended with longtime socialist President Evo Morales fleeing into exile as opponents alleged electoral fraud and supporters decried a “coup.”
Morales, banned from running this time, watched from Argentina as his former finance minister, front-runner Luis Arce, 57, faced two main competitors who sought to stop a socialist comeback: centrist former president Carlos Mesa, 67, and right-wing nationalist Luis Camacho, 41.
Bolivia’s election is a test for Latin American socialism — and democracy
The exit poll by the firm Ciesmori, with margin of error of less than 2 percentage points, indicated that Arce, the candidate of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, had claimed 52.4 percent of the vote, compared to Mesa’s 31.5 percent and Camacho’s 14.1 percent. A second exit poll by a group of universities and Catholic institutions showed similar figures, giving Arce 53 percent and Mesa 30.8 percent.
In a tweet, the right-wing, U.S.-backed interim president, Jeanine Áñez Chavez, noted that the official tally was still being counted. But she nevertheless recognized Arce’s apparent victory.
“We do not yet have an official count, but from the data we have, Mr. Arce and [his vice-presidential candidate] Mr. [David] Choquehuanca have won the election. I congratulate the winners and ask them to govern with Bolivia and democracy in mind.”
If the exit poll numbers are confirmed by the official count, which was being tabulated slowly late Sunday, it would be more than enough to avoid a November runoff and claim outright victory.
“We have recovered democracy,” Arce said in a public speech early Monday. “We promise to respond to our pledge to work and bring our program to fruition. We are going to govern for all Bolivians and construct a government of national unity.”
Experts cautioned that the exit polls are not the same as the official count, of which less than 5 percent was tallied by midnight. But they offered what many observers called a fairly precise snapshot of a huge wave of support for the socialists, who had ruled the country since 2006 before being forced out last year following claims of fraud.
One of Arce’s successful tactics appeared to be a major distancing of his candidacy from Morales. But the polarizing former president nevertheless seemed to portray the election as a vindication.
“Bolivia is an example to the world,” Morales told reporters in Buenos Aires. “Very soon our country will begin a new stage of great challenges. We must put aside differences and sectoral and regional interests to achieve a great national agreement."
In a surprise decision Saturday, Bolivia’s electoral tribunal announced it would not release the traditional quick-count projection of the outcome as initially expected Sunday. The tribunal said it would instead wait to release results until all ballots were counted or tallies showed an indisputable trend, something that could take at least a day or two, and potentially up to a week.
Late Sunday, Salvador Romero, head of the electoral council, would not confirm a timeline for releasing the definitive results.
“This process, at this stage, can be slower and accelerate progressively,” he told reporters in La Paz. “We ask the people for patience. We need to be certain about the results.”
An outright win for the socialists would amount to a major reversal of fortune for the powers that be in this impoverished Andean nation and mark a major victory for the Latin American left. It would also mark a stunning defeat for the right, which sought to sell its actions to purge the socialists in Bolivia as a “liberation” of the country — a liberation its people seemed not to want.
Áñez, a right-wing firebrand who took over after Morales’s exile, dropped out of the race due to low poll numbers. She has been blamed for haphazard handling of the coronavirus pandemic, as well as presiding over a wave of repression against leftists during her year in power. Observers say officials in her government as well as senior members of the military brass could potentially face charges from a new socialist government — although Arce told The Washington Post in an interview last week that he would not seek to influence the justice system.
“It’s an end to the politics of persecution and an opening for thorough, credible investigations of human rights violations, corruption and other irregularities,” said Kathryn Ledebur, director of the Andean Information Network. “Justice for these issues is the first crucial step toward reconciliation.”
Going into Sunday, opinion polls showed Arce close to the threshold needed for a first-round victory. To avoid a runoff, a candidate had to win more than 50 percent of the vote, or at least 40 percent with a 10-point margin of victory.
Analysts say Mesa, running second in the polls, would become the favorite in a second round of voting next month, assuming the opposition to the socialists coalesced around him. Camacho trailed both men in the polls by significant margins.
Carla Nina Martínez, a 30-year-old nurse voting in a rural area just south of La Paz, described herself as a longtime supporter of the left. But she said she was changing her vote this year to support Mesa.
“I value some things that President Evo Morales did. Everything was going very well,” she said. “But in the end, as always, politics end up being corrupt.”
A survivor of covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, she said she blamed the Áñez government for a poorly executed coronavirus plan.
“During the high points of the pandemic, we were never provided with personal protective equipment, and health personnel ended up being infected,” she said.
Santos Vallejo, 52, said the country’s bad economy in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic led him to vote for the socialists.
During Morales’s three terms, the socialists were credited with a successful drive to turn Bolivia into a leader in the effort to fight poverty in Latin America. At the same time, they embraced a “Socialist lite” approach that maintained relatively business-friendly policies — especially as compared to the more far more repressive and severe socialist government in Venezuela.
Under socialist governments, “we had jobs,” Vallejo said outside a polling station in El Alto, a socialist stronghold near La Paz. “I believe MAS will win because we, the poor, are with them.”
More than 10,000 troops were called to keep the peace. In a message clearly aimed at the socialists, Áñez’s influential interior minister, Arturo Murillo, led a show of force Saturday with soldiers and armored vehicles on the streets of La Paz. Murillo said the effort was meant to prevent “the return of dictators” — a clear reference to Morales, who was democratically elected three times before his controversial bid for a fourth term last year.
Arce has sought to distance himself from Morales. In an interview last week with The Post, Arce said Morales would need to face the justice system to defend himself against “numerous” charges if he returned.
“We think that our comrade Evo has every right, if he so wishes, to return to the country and defend himself,” Arce said.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Italy's coalition government on brink of collapse...
Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli
@silvia_sb_
#Breaking: former PM Renzi announces resignation of his party from the govt he effectively created less than 18 months ago.
And there goes another government crisis in Italy. This time, right in the middle of a pandemic.
12:19 PM · Jan 13, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli
@silvia_sb_
#Breaking: former PM Renzi announces resignation of his party from the govt he effectively created less than 18 months ago.
And there goes another government crisis in Italy. This time, right in the middle of a pandemic.
12:19 PM · Jan 13, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Myanmar military takes control of country after detaining Aung San Suu Kyi
Myanmar's military has confirmed it has taken control of the country after Aung San Suu Kyi and other political leaders were arrested in the early hours.
The coup comes after tensions rose between the civilian government and the military following a disputed election.
Hours after the arrests, military TV confirmed a state of emergency had been declared for one year.
Myanmar, also known as Burma, was ruled by the military until democratic reforms began in 2011.
In November's election, Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won enough seats to form a government. The army says the vote was fraudulent.
On Monday, the military said it was handing power to commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing. Soldiers are on the streets of the capital, Naypyitaw, and the main city, Yangon....
Myanmar's military has confirmed it has taken control of the country after Aung San Suu Kyi and other political leaders were arrested in the early hours.
The coup comes after tensions rose between the civilian government and the military following a disputed election.
Hours after the arrests, military TV confirmed a state of emergency had been declared for one year.
Myanmar, also known as Burma, was ruled by the military until democratic reforms began in 2011.
In November's election, Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won enough seats to form a government. The army says the vote was fraudulent.
On Monday, the military said it was handing power to commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing. Soldiers are on the streets of the capital, Naypyitaw, and the main city, Yangon....
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Why don’t we refer to this country simply as Myanmar? It hasn’t been Burma for 25 years at least, we know this thanks to J. Peterman. Every article I read has something about it being Burma.
After some short reflection, I suppose there’s probably a good part of the population that probably thinks Myanmar and Burma are both countries that exist today.
krista4
Footballguy
When I visited several years back, the people I met still all called it Burma and were adamant about it. I’m not sure why, though. They were pro-democracy supporters.
Such a sad situation on every front.
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Don Quixote
Footballguy
Yeah, it is pretty sad. I know Aung San Suu Kyi's reputation was hit by the Rohingya genocide, but she may have been a bit limited in what she could by the military (and it is not like the military is going to be any better than her on that front). Her government still seemed popular based on the election returns. It feels like the military just decided time to show they still wield the power.
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knowledge dropper
Footballguy
BigJim®
Footballguy
Right, perhaps thanks to a open letter from a 10 former defense secretaries.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
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