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[Dynasty] 2020 NFL Draft Class


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Faust, I don't think you necessarily get the props for doing what you do -- just wanted to say that it's appreciated. Not only are you taking the time to do all this for this community, you go to

Just finished my one and only dev draft of the year. 2020-eligible players only. This is a TE-premium league, but none were taken. Bryan Edwards was out of the pool due to being taken last year.

Sorry if posted before, but this was interesting. Best/Value picks and tendencies of GMs. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001108562/article/nfl-draft-guide-each-gms-best-pick-top-value-pick-

NFL Draft: How Strong is Joe Burrow’s Arm? How Quick is Tua Tagovailoa’s Release? I Frame-Counted More Than 400 Throws to Find Out.

Quote

Of the four quarterback prospects, Jordan Love has the strongest arm. With a maximum launch velocity that’s nearly equivalent to a 98 mile per hour fastball, he’s able to make some throws the other QBs cannot. While Tua Tagovailoa’s arm is a concern, he makes up for it with the quickest throwing motion I’ve ever analyzed — yes, it’s faster than Dan Marino’s. Joe Burrow, on the other hand, was in the middle of the pack for both arm strength and release time, but he’s the quickest decision maker. In fact, he took less time, on average, to pull the trigger on throws than any other quarterback I’ve tracked. Justin Herbert was generally around average for each metric.

 

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:
12 hours ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Before you fall over yourself to draft Mims, Edwards, Aiyuk...

Avoid seniors at WR

Verrrrry interesting... 🤔

Extremely interesting.

I went to the link to try and figure-out/glean fantasy-relevant information and found something very-interesting.

They cross-tabulated information to include draft status/where players went off the board and it should not shock anyone that players picked higher fared better but this stat stands out.

Round 1 WR Draft Selections Over the Past 10 Years

..............................  WR#  WR3  ++  WR2  +++  WR1  

Total......................  34  - 61.76%  - 50.00% -  26.47%

Early Declare.........  25  - 68.00% - 64.00%  -  40.00%

Non-Early Declare.... 9 -  44.44% - 11.11%  --  0.00%

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7 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Extremely interesting.

I went to the link to try and figure-out/glean fantasy-relevant information and found something very-interesting.

They cross-tabulated information to include draft status/where players went off the board and it should not shock anyone that players picked higher fared better but this stat stands out.

Round 1 WR Draft Selections Over the Past 10 Years

..............................  WR#  WR3  ++  WR2  +++  WR1  

Total......................  34  - 61.76%  - 50.00% -  26.47%

Early Declare.........  25  - 68.00% - 64.00%  -  40.00%

Non-Early Declare.... 9 -  44.44% - 11.11%  --  0.00%

I saw that too. I may upgrade my spreadsheet to account for early vs non early declares

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10 minutes ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

I saw that too. I may upgrade my spreadsheet to account for early vs non early declares

Day 2 has net some quality upperclassmen. I think it's noteworthy info, but don't over react to it. 

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5 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Day 2 has net some quality upperclassmen. I think it's noteworthy info, but don't over react to it. 

I agree to not overreact, but I've always preferred underclassman to seniors.  Not all, but in most cases, they are seniors for a reason ;)

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I was a bit disappointed to see they didn't offer much in terms of distinguishing production because fantasy output is the key. 

Using #1 WR status is good but I would like to see the names/production because a guy taken in the first round may be gifted/pushed into the #1 WR position due to need but what sort of production are we talking about? 

I felt the takeaway is that WRs who don't come out early haven't gotten #1 WR status yet.  That's a good bit of information to have in a rookie dynasty draft if you have a tie-breaker decision to make.

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8 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

I was a bit disappointed to see they didn't offer much in terms of distinguishing production because fantasy output is the key. 

Using #1 WR status is good but I would like to see the names/production because a guy taken in the first round may be gifted/pushed into the #1 WR position due to need but what sort of production are we talking about? 

I felt the takeaway is that WRs who don't come out early haven't gotten #1 WR status yet.  That's a good bit of information to have in a rookie dynasty draft if you have a tie-breaker decision to make.

Anecdotal example warning - I recall using this logic to slide Michael Thomas further than my eyes thought I should. 

Whoops.

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13 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Anecdotal example warning - I recall using this logic to slide Michael Thomas further than my eyes thought I should. 

Whoops.

I wasn't aware of this information till today and even though I did not him #1 I had MT higher on my list than where he went in the NFL draft.

I use the information I have at the time and I'm going to use this as a tie-breaker.

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Just now, MAC_32 said:

And he red shirted a year. 

Doesn't matter, he "played" 3 years at OSU and when I think of seniors as it relates to the draft I think of players who played 4 years.  That's not the case with Thomas.

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41 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Doesn't matter, he "played" 3 years at OSU and when I think of seniors as it relates to the draft I think of players who played 4 years.  That's not the case with Thomas.

This

It's also how underclassmen are defined when they apply for early declaration 

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56 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Doesn't matter, he "played" 3 years at OSU and when I think of seniors as it relates to the draft I think of players who played 4 years.  That's not the case with Thomas.

So the criteria you all are using is restricted to only 5th year seniors? 

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

Put it in context of playing 4 years vs playing < 4 years.  Besides, the NFL defines underclassman that way,.

Just doesn't make any sense to me. In a vacuum a 4th year senior dominating is how different than a 4th year junior? They have both been in the program 4 years. I mean, i get it if the player came in under developed and redshirt freshman year for physical reasons. That should be considered. But that wasn't the case with Thomas who didn't redshirt as a freshman. 

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13 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Just doesn't make any sense to me. In a vacuum a 4th year senior dominating is how different than a 4th year junior? They have both been in the program 4 years. I mean, i get it if the player came in under developed and redshirt freshman year for physical reasons. That should be considered. But that wasn't the case with Thomas who didn't redshirt as a freshman. 

I suppose going back and forth on this is fruitless, so I'll stop after this post.   What it comes down to is that Thomas left after his junior year and played 3 seasons and was an NFL draft underclassman.

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43 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I suppose going back and forth on this is fruitless, so I'll stop after this post.   What it comes down to is that Thomas left after his junior year and played 3 seasons and was an NFL draft underclassman.

I don't think it's fruitless. Context matters when applied to this class - or any class. Devaluing 1st round upperclassman receivers because prior 1st round upperclassman receivers didn't produce seems arbitrary, especially because day 2 upperclassman receivers have produced in the NFL. I only mentioned Thomas because he was the first that came to mind. Jordy Nelson, Anquan Boldin, Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, TY Hilton, etc.

I think there are valid reasons to be skeptical of Aiyuck, but his being a Sr. is not one of them. He was a JUCO transfer that came into a situation with a clear 1-2 in the pecking order. His usage and productivity trended up through the course of the year and then when given alpha responsibilities in 2019 he rose to the occasion. That set of circumstances getting a 'flag' because he's a senior vs a redshirt junior makes no logical sense.

I think there are less reasons to be skeptical of Michael Pittman and I am not going to be swayed away from him just because he's a senior. He was given a 3rd round grade last year, but opted to return because he thought he could improve upon that. Then went on to dominate. If I were to follow this 'rule' then I am to devalue him because he chose to improve his stock?

^^^I think those two cases are vastly different than a Denzel Mims, a 4th year Sr. that started for 3 years but didn't develop into a consistent threat until year 3. He's been a known commodity in the devy community and correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall seeing his name as a top 50 type until the end of this season. So I'm much more concerned about this particular late breakout than I am the other two.

Tl;Dr - make decisions based on good information, not arbitrary criteria.

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21 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

My opinion of 2020 draft TEs is who cares?  I wouldn’t waste a rookie pick, except maybe a late 4th on a 2020 TE.  Next year is the year of the TE.

Generally speaking I agree, but I am curious what comes of Claypool and Trautman. To a lesser degree Moss. Those 3 could develop into targets in a good situation. I can't imagine my mind will be swayed on any of the others though.

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1 hour ago, MAC_32 said:

So the criteria you all are using is restricted to only 5th year seniors? 

or true seniors yes. that is the definition of a non-early declaration 

 

It's quite literally how the NFL defines it. Underclassmen are players who are eligible for the NFL draft and still have remaining eligibility in college. 

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Does not ,after as this report is based on age and Thomas was at Ohio St for 4 years. He had a red shirt year and thus was older coming out ala the Seniors. So it does matter and skews these numbers. 

also not sure why Golloday is not considered having a #1 season who played till his senior year. Now only played 2. He was #11 in my league last year. 
 

I understand the junior to senior because you get graded early, you come out chasing the cash. Why the numbers had more way more seniors drafted in round 4 or later. So top talent comes out early. But if you put Golloday and Thomas into equation, #1 WR goes up to 22% just like that. 

Plus what is your risk this year. The top 4 are all juniors. If Mims and the boys go late 1st, 2nd over Higgins etc, I think draft capital is still more Important. Because in top 10 is 7 Jr and 3 Sr. 2 failures for jr and 1 for Sr, than the numbers will continue to favour Juniors. Make it 4 misses to 2. The amount has bearing here because we all know, not many talented WRs stay for all 4 years. Most might not even spend 3 years in college if they where not forced. 
 

I am okay with the risk factor on the 3 seniors compared to the 3 juniors after the big 4 and draft capital and landing spot will be more important than age. 

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2 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Generally speaking I agree, but I am curious what comes of Claypool and Trautman. To a lesser degree Moss. Those 3 could develop into targets in a good situation. I can't imagine my mind will be swayed on any of the others though.

Kmet and Trautman in the 4th only for me. Claypool as a TE is interesting, but still only a 4th for me.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Where are people getting this from?

It's actually talked about quite a bit by film guys and podcasts that hes not as good of a between the tackle guy as Swift or Dobbins. IMO Taylor goes after both of them in the NFL draft. Leaving fantasy owners scratching their heads. Rookie drafts will be interesting 

Edited by Johnny B. Goode
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