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***Official Joe Biden Campaign Thread (2 Viewers)

Biden has a lot of baggage and a pretty bad voting record. He's obviously the front runner now, but when people start laying in to his record, we will see what happens.

This is probably more me hoping than anything, though. Because I don't want him to be the nominee.
Can you elaborate why? 

And if he were the nominee, do you think he would beat Trump?

Who would you like to see as the nominee? And do you give them the same, better or worse chance to beat Trump?

 
I think the lefts desire to be progressive left will hurt them. Biden is about middle ground as it comes in this election. Their base doesnt want that.

 
I'm confident because the polling says he is already beating Trump on average by double digits in the 3 states the Democrats need to win back to ensure an electoral victory. I try to be fact based Tim.
I know. I wasn’t trying to suggest you weren’t fact based. 

You know my main reason for concern. If the 2020 election is a referendum on Trump, Trump loses. But Bernie more than any other candidate will change the theme- rather than a referendum on Trump it will become a referendum on Bernie’s ideas- and while those ideas are currently popular (as your polling demonstrates) they may not be after subjected to intense scrutiny and criticism. 

 
And as far as Biden video announcement goes it's the exact opposite of what everybody has been saying you have to do. It was a Trump bad me not Trump video.  Rhat is not going to win the election it's really a crappy start but it's about what I expect from Joe Biden who has been a crappy campaigner for president every time he's run.

 
And as far as Biden video announcement goes it's the exact opposite of what everybody has been saying you have to do. It was a Trump bad me not Trump video.  Rhat is not going to win the election it's really a crappy start but it's about what I expect from Joe Biden who has been a crappy campaigner for president every time he's run.
Thanks. What is it you think people have to do?

You're a zillion times more knowledgeable in politics than I am, but from a game strategy angle, I'd have to think "I'm the one guy who can beat Trump" is a strong play. 

 
The only positive thing you could say about Hillary in 2016 was "she can beat Trump"

The only positive thing you can say about Biden in 2020 is "he can beat Trump"

Yeah, sign me up for that again.

 
Can you elaborate why? 

And if he were the nominee, do you think he would beat Trump?

Who would you like to see as the nominee? And do you give them the same, better or worse chance to beat Trump?
Sure.

  • His track record on treating women. Both the handsy/touchy stuff and his embarrassing display in the Anita Hill hearings.
  • His track record on criminal justice/war on drugs. He has constantly been on the wrong side of this issue. (Joe Biden's long record supporting the War on Drugs)
  • He is too old.
I do think he would beat Trump. Well, I don't know. It amazes me that Trump gets any votes. And he is an extremely unpopular President. But there are a lot of areas that are going to vote GOP regardless of who the nominee is. So can Biden flip some of FLA, PA, MI, WI, OH? I honestly don't know. I don't really know what to make of it.

My favorites are Beto/Mayor Pete/Booker. I can also live with Harris, though her record as a prosecutor and on criminal justice worries me. And I don't really know if any of those will beat Trump either.

 
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And I agree the video announcement seemed boring. It seemed like an 80s movie.

Background music for dramatic effect and such. I'd be shocked if it wasn't super expensive and created by an old school marketing firm.

Where Buttigieg's videos will be crowdsourced, and made in exchange for a shoutout on Twitter. And way better. 

 
Thanks. What is it you think people have to do?

You're a zillion times more knowledgeable in politics than I am, but from a game strategy angle, I'd have to think "I'm the one guy who can beat Trump" is a strong play. 
Well the thing is he isn't Joe. And I think people understand that. Further I'm not even sure it's true. He came out talking about racism. Who isn't against racism in this race? And who is the one candidate on video saying desegregation is a bad idea? Joe Biden. Who is the guy who made a mess of the Anita Hill hearing? Joe Biden. If I'm the GOP I'm salivating to run against another 3rd way Democrat while I sell my fake populism. Especially a guy like Biden who has the baggage he does.

 
I think the lefts desire to be progressive left will hurt them. Biden is about middle ground as it comes in this election. Their base doesnt want that.
Yeah, there's one lesson we've learned from the last decade-plus of elections it's that American voters love centrists and reject candidates that move too far to the left or right. 

That's why Americans chose experienced, "safe" centrist presidential candidates over passionate partisans in 2008, 2012 and 2016 and rejected the angry partisan messaging of the opposition parties during the midterms of 2010, 2014, and 2018.

 
Thanks. What is it you think people have to do?

You're a zillion times more knowledgeable in politics than I am, but from a game strategy angle, I'd have to think "I'm the one guy who can beat Trump" is a strong play. 
I think the big problem with Biden is that to the extent his candidacy is about Trump it's also inevitably about saying "let's go back to before Trump, when everything was OK."  But everything wasn't OK.  If it was, we wouldn't have gotten Trump.

 
Well the thing is he isn't Joe. And I think people understand that. Further I'm not even sure it's true. He came out talking about racism. Who isn't against racism in this race? And who is the one candidate on video saying desegregation is a bad idea? Joe Biden. Who is the guy who made a mess of the Anita Hill hearing? Joe Biden. If I'm the GOP I'm salivating to run against another 3rd way Democrat while I sell my fake populism. Especially a guy like Biden who has the baggage he does.
Gotcha. So it's not you're dismissing the "he can beat Trump". It's you don't think he's the guy that can beat him?

 
I think the big problem with Biden is that to the extent his candidacy is about Trump it's also inevitably about saying "let's go back to before Trump, when everything was OK."  But everything wasn't OK.  If it was, we wouldn't have gotten Trump.
Thanks. I always like to hear your perspective, but it seems puzzling to me. If Obama could have run for a 3rd term, would it not have been a giant landslide for him? Maybe I'm overestimating his popularity. 

 
And this fascinates me because if I were Biden's manager, I'd be doing nothing but "let's go back to before Trump, when everything was OK."  

 
Thanks. I always like to hear your perspective, but it seems puzzling to me. If Obama could have run for a 3rd term, would it not have been a giant landslide for him? Maybe I'm overestimating his popularity. 
Biden would love to hear you use terms like “if Obama could have run for a 3rd term” in reference to him. That’s exactly what he’s hoping people will think. 

 
Thanks. I always like to hear your perspective, but it seems puzzling to me. If Obama could have run for a 3rd term, would it not have been a giant landslide for him? Maybe I'm overestimating his popularity. 
Joe, the problem is the Obama Economy* was a tale of two cities. I personally did very well, and based on your post I suspect you did too. But the fact is, we're in the minority.

*It is complete and totally unfair to pin this all on Obama, but he's the one we're talking about now.

 
Thanks. I always like to hear your perspective, but it seems puzzling to me. If Obama could have run for a 3rd term, would it not have been a giant landslide for him? Maybe I'm overestimating his popularity. 
I think he would have won, although perhaps not in a landslide. But Obama is an excellent politician. He had the ability to convince people that he genuinely cared about their problems and wanted to solve them (largely because I genuinely think he did) even as inequality worsened.

Biden could do the same, and maybe he will. But I'm not hearing that message from him so far. His message is specifically anti-Trump, but I think the far better message this cycle is opposing all the things that Trump represents as well- the inequality of opportunity, the different justice systems for the rich and the poor, the general notion that the rich and powerful can get away with anything from from sexually assaulting women to giving themselves and their donors massive tax breaks to trashing protections for preexisting conditions because you don't like the name on the law that created them, while the rest of us are left holding the bag.

That's what the Dem midterm candidates did, and it worked out very well in the states that Trump turned from blue to red in 2016.

 
Although on a serious note, I'm becoming more and more convinced this is really just about business and marketing. 

And marketing is about clarity. People rarely move toward confusion. They almost always move toward clarity. 

I was listening to a podcast recently and the guy talked about speaking to crowds of people. 

He noted Jeb Bush was extremely qualified to be president. Knowledgeable on policy, Governor, family experience etc.

He said he'd asked this question repeatedly: What was Jeb Bush's vision for America? Crickets. Nobody knew.

He asked "What was Hillary Clinton's vision for America?" A few people said, "I'm with her"

He asked "What was Donald Trump's vision for America?" Of course everyone knows "Make America Great Again".

Clarity is big. 

 
I think he would have won, although perhaps not in a landslide. But Obama is an excellent politician. He had the ability to convince people that he genuinely cared about their problems and wanted to solve them (largely because I genuinely think he did) even as inequality worsened.

Biden could do the same, and maybe he will. But I'm not hearing that message from him so far. His message is specifically anti-Trump, but I think the far better message this cycle is opposing all the things that Trump represents as well- the inequality of opportunity, the different justice systems for the rich and the poor, the general notion that the rich and powerful can get away with anything from from sexually assaulting women to giving themselves and their donors massive tax breaks to trashing protections for preexisting conditions because you don't like the name on the law that created them, while the rest of us are left holding the bag.

That's what the Dem midterm candidates did, and it worked out very well in the states that Trump turned from blue to red in 2016.
Thanks. I think I do over value how popular Obama was. I would think an Obama 3.0 would be far and away the heaviest favorite in presidential election history. But I also say that knowing I'm a novice. 

 
I guess we'll see if I'd be any good at managing a campaign... 

I pretty much doubt it. 
This one sells itself though. It may fail because the Democrats have moved in a different direction- but it won’t be because of the message. This is clearly Biden’s best strategy and he’d be a fool to try anything else. 

 
Although on a serious note, I'm becoming more and more convinced this is really just about business and marketing. 

And marketing is about clarity. People rarely move toward confusion. They almost always move toward clarity. 

I was listening to a podcast recently and the guy talked about speaking to crowds of people. 

He noted Jeb Bush was extremely qualified to be president. Knowledgeable on policy, Governor, family experience etc.

He said he'd asked this question repeatedly: What was Jeb Bush's vision for America? Crickets. Nobody knew.

He asked "What was Hillary Clinton's vision for America?" A few people said, "I'm with her"

He asked "What was Donald Trump's vision for America?" Of course everyone knows "Make America Great Again".

Clarity is big. 
Totally agree. It seems so silly, but one reason I think Kamala Harris would be a very good candidate is that the "For the People" slogan is excellent.

 
I don’t think it’s wise to oversimplify. A clear slogan and theme is a big help, and lack of it of it a hindrance- we can all agree on that. But there are tons of other factors that go into a winning campaign. Timing, luck, ability to read changing public opinion and act on it, charisma (an undefinable quality) and so many other factors. It’s like trying to produce a hit song. 

 
I do want to add that one thing that should be dismissed here are Biden’s previous attempts to run for President. In both instances he was a 3rd tier candidate with almost no chance. This time around he starts out In the 1st tier, so it’s completely different. 

 
And this fascinates me because if I were Biden's manager, I'd be doing nothing but "let's go back to before Trump, when everything was OK."  
Everything is better now with Trump so that doesn't make any sense.  Lower unemployment, booming economy, record highs in stock market, etc.

 
Is he first tier because of name recognition or his politics?  I’d guess it’s much more the former than the latter when comparing him to the other dem candidates.  I think he’s comfy and familiar, and that will help him for a while.  But if he’s not much more than “remember when...”, I think voices like Mayor Pete (admitted bias here) will resonate far greater.

 
I don’t think it’s wise to oversimplify. A clear slogan and theme is a big help, and lack of it of it a hindrance- we can all agree on that. But there are tons of other factors that go into a winning campaign. Timing, luck, ability to read changing public opinion and act on it, charisma (an undefinable quality) and so many other factors. It’s like trying to produce a hit song. 
I Disagree. Obviously, the simple message has to be a good one. That's a given. But I think most people make the same assumption you do and decide "not to oversimplify". 

When in reality, what they're actually saying is "I think I sound smarter by trying to convince people how smart I sound with tons of copy and words and video and different and sometimes slightly conflicting messages. We need to make sure people know we're not simple".

The result is unclarity. And then losing. 

It was Bill Clinton and "It's the Economy Stupid", It was Obama with Hope. And it was Trump with Make America Great Again. 

I remember when everyone was dismissing Trump and I was "I dunno. For better or for worse, Guy's a marketer" 

I think maybe the most ironic thing in the entire election was the guy who's likely the most narcissistic president ever had the marketing chops to realize the fatal flaw was making it a story about himself and instead made it about the voter. While Hillary Clinton chose the narcissistic angle and made it about her. (I'm With Her). 

He knows what sells. 

 
And this fascinates me because if I were Biden's manager, I'd be doing nothing but "let's go back to before Trump, when everything was OK."  
This is a good point.

"Let's Go Back To When We Had A Stable President" would be a pretty good theme to run on. I'm not sure if Biden in particular could pull it off, but I think it would be a better theme than attacking Trump's morally ambiguous quotes.

 
This is a good point.

"Let's Go Back To When We Had A Stable President" would be a pretty good theme to run on. I'm not sure if Biden in particular could pull it off, but I think it would be a better theme than attacking Trump's morally ambiguous quotes.
I hear you. I think all the Democrats though can play the "stable" card though. Although interestingly, it seems Sanders is the most vulnerable there.

Biden specifically though has the "I'm the closest thing to the greatest president in history" factor the others simply don't have.

Now it all depends on how accurate my assumption that Obama 3.0 would be the landslide I think it would be.

 
And this fascinates me because if I were Biden's manager, I'd be doing nothing but "let's go back to before Trump, when everything was OK."  
This is a good point.

"Let's Go Back To When We Had A Stable President" would be a pretty good theme to run on. I'm not sure if Biden in particular could pull it off, but I think it would be a better theme than attacking Trump's morally ambiguous quotes.
Or "Let's go back to when democracy, the rule of law and morality meant something".

 
Gotcha. So it's not you're dismissing the "he can beat Trump". It's you don't think he's the guy that can beat him?
Yeah I think he's too much Hillary. Now he is way more likable but in the end it's the same policy foundation that drove 2 time Obama voters to vote Trump. To me and I know this isn't popular opinion in a lot if circles, but we need to run a real populist to beat Trump. The people are tired of no real choice between Republican and Republican lite.

 
@Joe Bryant Bump for no response.  How can Biden or any Democrat for that matter run on the myth things were better with Obama?
We were a kinder, gentler nation.  We had friends we knew and trusted around the world.  We had less hate in our hearts - at least were were less emboldened to show it.

And, the things Trump has done to prop the economy up - I think - are detrimental to long-term stable growth.  Removing regulations and safeguards to boost profits, is a short-term boost, and a long-term mistake.  Not addressing immigration, nor infra-structure is a mistake.  Not addressing climate change is a mistake.  Not moving forward on non-fossil fuel energy sources is a huge mistake.

 
Is he first tier because of name recognition or his politics?  I’d guess it’s much more the former than the latter when comparing him to the other dem candidates.  I think he’s comfy and familiar, and that will help him for a while.  But if he’s not much more than “remember when...”, I think voices like Mayor Pete (admitted bias here) will resonate far greater.


NCCommish disagreed with this, but on a 538 podcast a couple of weeks ago, Nate Silver said Mayor Pete and Bernie were essentially tied. Because Bernie had like 100% name recognition and about 20% of the vote, while Mayor Pete had like 40% recognition and 8% of the vote.

I'm way oversimplifying the numbers, but the point was when you adjust for name recognition, he thought they were basically tied.

 
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I Disagree. Obviously, the simple message has to be a good one. That's a given. But I think most people make the same assumption you do and decide "not to oversimplify". 

When in reality, what they're actually saying is "I think I sound smarter by trying to convince people how smart I sound with tons of copy and words and video and different and sometimes slightly conflicting messages. We need to make sure people know we're not simple".

The result is unclarity. And then losing. 

It was Bill Clinton and "It's the Economy Stupid", It was Obama with Hope. And it was Trump with Make America Great Again. 

I remember when everyone was dismissing Trump and I was "I dunno. For better or for worse, Guy's a marketer" 

I think maybe the most ironic thing in the entire election was the guy who's likely the most narcissistic president ever had the marketing chops to realize the fatal flaw was making it a story about himself and instead made it about the voter. While Hillary Clinton chose the narcissistic angle and made it about her. (I'm With Her). 

He knows what sells. 
You completely misunderstood my point. I did not mean that it was unwise to oversimplify one’s campaign message- I agree with you on that. I meant that it’s unwise for YOU to oversimplify your analysis of what makes a winning campaign- messaging is important, but there are other important factors as well. I mentioned some of them in my previous post. 

 
You completely misunderstood my point. I did not mean that it was unwise to oversimplify one’s campaign message- I agree with you on that. I meant that it’s unwise for YOU to oversimplify your analysis of what makes a winning campaign- messaging is important, but there are other important factors as well. I mentioned some of them in my previous post. 
I did not misunderstand your point. Much less, completely. 

I think you are wrong if you don't believe messaging is way more important than the other things you mentioned. 

 
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I did not misunderstand your point. Much less, completely. 

I think you are wrong if you don't believe messaging is way more important than the other things you mentioned. 
Your response to my post was do the effect that people don’t simplify their message enough. That had nothing whatsoever to do with what I wrote; I happen to agree with that point as a matter of fact. But it didn’t respond at all to my post, hence my assumption that you misunderstood me. 

 
The only positive thing you could say about Hillary in 2016 was "she can beat Trump"

The only positive thing you can say about Biden in 2020 is "he can beat Trump"

Yeah, sign me up for that again.
Biden is a likable kind of guy, mellow down to earth. HRC is/ was not very personable and had considerably more baggage than Biden does.   A clear cut significant difference.

 
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It simply means I saw you responded to everyone else but me.  It seems like the only strategy the Dems have is to attack Trump since the economy is doing so well.  Isn't that exactly what Biden did in his announcement?  
It’s not the only strategy at all. 

Long term the economy is not doing well. Right now things look good because Trump has chosen to spend the nation’s credit card for short term prosperity, but that’s not sustainable and even he knows it. He’s done nothing to address any of our biggest problems: healthcare, infrastructure, new energy sources. These are the issues the Democrats can and will win on. 

 
We were a kinder, gentler nation.  We had friends we knew and trusted around the world.  We had less hate in our hearts - at least were were less emboldened to show it.

And, the things Trump has done to prop the economy up - I think - are detrimental to long-term stable growth.  Removing regulations and safeguards to boost profits, is a short-term boost, and a long-term mistake.  Not addressing immigration, nor infra-structure is a mistake.  Not addressing climate change is a mistake.  Not moving forward on non-fossil fuel energy sources is a huge mistake.
Trump, like Obama, is a divisive President I will give you that.  He would be better to lay off the twitter.  However, that is just his personality and he will not sit there when he is constantly getting attacked by the media.

I obviously disagree on the regulations and lowering tax rates has helped the majority of Americans.  Time will tell if it works out in the long run but basic economics are on his side.

How can you say not facing immigration with a straight face?  Dems have stonewalled him there and that is squarely on them.  I don't believe climate change is a big issue. 

 

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