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***Official Joe Biden Campaign Thread


Joe Bryant

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11 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Still trailing, but old joe is rolling like a locomotive down the stretch.

https://www.electionbettingodds.com

Note that Bernie is slightly more likely than Biden to win the Democratic nomination, but even so, as of right now, Biden is more likely than Bernie to be the next President.

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25 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Note that Bernie is slightly more likely than Biden to win the Democratic nomination, but even so, as of right now, Biden is more likely than Bernie to be the next President.

As of right now, electionbettingodds says that Bernie has a 44.6% chance of being the nominee and a 17.6% chance of being the next President. That implies a 39.46% chance of beating Trump if he's the nominee. Biden has a 43% chance of being the nominee and a 20.4% chance of being the next President. That implies a 47.44% chance of beating Trump if he's the nominee.

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9 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Note that Bernie is slightly more likely than Biden to win the Democratic nomination, but even so, as of right now, Biden is more likely than Bernie to be the next President.

Nate Silver sees it as a tossup

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1234549072876515330

The safest thing is probably just to think of the nomination as a toss-up between Sanders and Biden now.

I'm not sure if our model will say that, but **it's getting pretty close to saying that** and the factors it isn't considering (i.e. that Biden could pick up a disproportionate share of Klobuchar and Buttigieg voters) would likely push it in that direction.

 

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10 minutes ago, Todem said:

Bloomberg needs to shift as well after Super Tuesday and drop out. Get behind Joe and get the moderate vote going here. Biden can have a ton of steam heading out of Super Tuesday. 

Wouldn’t hurt to have Warren stick around raising her hand to speak for another few weeks. 

Edited by bigmarc27
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Nate Silver‏ @NateSilver538 7m7 minutes ago

Biden and Sanders are now ~tied in our forecast.

Yes, there are a lot of assumptions here, about Biden's SC bounce and the effect of the Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraws. But I don't think those assumptions are particularly aggressive or Biden-friendly. For instance, it gives him no extra credit for Pete/Klob *endorsing* him.

The only national poll post-SC had just a 3-point Sanders lead, and that was before Buttigieg and Klobuchar quit. Biden has gained a lot in California polls and could limit Sanders's delegate haul. His performance in SC bodes well for how he'll do in the South tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1234619291120685056

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57 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

I completely forgot Beto existed. Looks like there was a party conference call and Bernie didn't get the invite.

Bernie was probably asked to support him too and Bernie said, “Can you at least wait until the convention before you screw me again?”

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On 2/14/2020 at 1:14 PM, ren hoek said:

Not ready to do my official slam dunk on Biden just yet, I mean he is really Holding Serve here and who knows what his loyal black FireWall will bring.  But in the meantime I just want to say I appreciate Tim for fighting the good fight, and never adjusting his information sources regardless of how many times they get it wrong.  I swear he'd make a great CNN analyst.  

Hey you’re welcome. 

What I wrote, from the beginning, is that no matter how poorly Biden appeared to be doing so long as he won South Carolina and retained black support he should be regarded as the favorite. That wasn’t on “sources”, it was simple logic, or so I thought. I admit I wavered a bit after some poor debate performances but it appears to be true after all. We’ll know a lot more tomorrow night. 

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14 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Hey you’re welcome. 

What I wrote, from the beginning, is that no matter how poorly Biden appeared to be doing so long as he won South Carolina and retained black support he should be regarded as the favorite. That wasn’t on “sources”, it was simple logic, or so I thought. I admit I wavered a bit after some poor debate performances but it appears to be true after all. We’ll know a lot more tomorrow night. 

Kudos to you for sticking to your guns tim.   I didn’t think the American people were this misguided, but I was way way wrong.  You pegged this from the beginning!

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1 minute ago, BassNBrew said:

I see two paths...the one that lead us to the highest Coronavirus mortality rate in the world or the one that leads us to medical care for all.  Glad to voting for someone who cares about us tomorrow.

This deserves a good old-fashioned wut.

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Just now, BassNBrew said:

Wut do you need help understanding.

Haven't six people died in America? That seems awfully premature to be calling our path a path to the highest death rate in the world. Might want to back up a minute and let this run its course. 

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3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Haven't six people died in America? That seems awfully premature to be calling our path a path to the highest death rate in the world. Might want to back up a minute and let this run its course. 

It is at the moment.

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6 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

It is at the moment.

It's okay. I'll let you have it. The last thing I want to do is politicize it, though its very nature may make it have to fall under the rubric of political decisions and structural shocks to waking life. I'm just not sure yet. 

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41 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Hillary was 10x more competent than Biden and still lost to Trump.  I disagree with your assessment.

She didn't lose because of incompetance.  She lost because she was not well liked.  

Biden doesn't have the same issue there as Hillary and can appeal to people that she didn't.

Its not about competance though because I agree with you, Biden is not the best candidate if that's how we are judging.  I don't think it matters though, he still has the best chance to beat Trump.  I wish there was someone better too but there isn't.

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