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***Official Joe Biden Campaign Thread


Joe Bryant

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8 minutes ago, Don Quixote said:

Yeah, Bernie worries me in on an electoral vote basis too.  Besides President, I worry about trickle down on all of the down ballot stuff -- Congressmen and congresswomen in swing districts, and state elections. State elections are  going to be particularly important on a national level due to redistricting.

Yeah.  Lindsey Graham could realistically lose to a Democrat this cycle - if the downballot races get a boost from the top of the ticket. Lots of states and districts are in play that usually aren’t because of Trump.  
 

And Joe will only go four years.  Hopefully whoever his VP pick is will be ready then. 

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25 minutes ago, Phil Elliott said:

It is getting him support from the younger crowd. This is campaign season. Candidates say the darnedest things right now to get votes. A lot of people thought Obama was giving them free phones.

If Bernie gets the nomination, I think there is very little chance Bernie walks back to the center like most traditional candidates do after the primary. He is who he is.

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I'm starting to warm up to Biden, oddly, because of his age.  Yes, he's old but, I think he is going to accelerate the careers of many young (relatively speaking) people on the national stage - Buttigieg, Castro, and Abrams, to name three. And, having thought about it, I'm convinced Kamala Harris will be his VP pick, setting her up for the 2024 or 2028 run.

In a vacuum, I like Warren more than Biden, but I still think Warren's ultimate calling is to serve as the Senate majority leader.

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There are recent polls of Sanders leading Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.  There's even one from October where he's leading in Ohio. 

Of course, it's early.  And, of course, polls will fluctuate.  And there is a lot of volatile stuff going on with the virus and the economy that can change things.  Plus there will undoubtedly be some other surprises. 

But what I don't understand is why so many people think these polls are so overwhelming likely to swing in Trump's favor.

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1 minute ago, Juxtatarot said:

There are recent polls of Sanders leading Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.  There's even one from October where he's leading in Ohio. 

Of course, it's early.  And, of course, polls will fluctuate.  And there is a lot of volatile stuff going on with the virus and the economy that can change things.  Plus there will undoubtedly be some other surprises. 

But what I don't understand is why so many people think these polls are so overwhelming likely to swing in Trump's favor.

Tens of millions of American voters rely on anecdotal evidence about a lot of stuff, including elections. The '16 election meant, to them, that "polls are wrong."

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8 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

There are recent polls of Sanders leading Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.  There's even one from October where he's leading in Ohio. 

Of course, it's early.  And, of course, polls will fluctuate.  And there is a lot of volatile stuff going on with the virus and the economy that can change things.  Plus there will undoubtedly be some other surprises. 

But what I don't understand is why so many people think these polls are so overwhelming likely to swing in Trump's favor.

He jettisoned Florida last week. And most of the others are within margin of error. The Republicans haven’t even started going after him yet.  

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2 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Really looking forward to those campaign. ads.

Me too. Good weekly reminder that the President illegally asked a foreign leader to interfere in the election. It’ll be like him bringing up the fact that he was impeached over and over again. 

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14 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

There are recent polls of Sanders leading Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.  There's even one from October where he's leading in Ohio. 

Of course, it's early.  And, of course, polls will fluctuate.  And there is a lot of volatile stuff going on with the virus and the economy that can change things.  Plus there will undoubtedly be some other surprises. 

But what I don't understand is why so many people think these polls are so overwhelming likely to swing in Trump's favor.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

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1 hour ago, Sweet J said:

Up until yesterday I was going Bernie.  But then one of his fans stupidly posted about his "student loan forgiveness" plan.  And I read about it.  Holy smokes that's the STUPIDEST idea in the world.  Made me mad just reading about it.  

Pulled this trigger for Biden this morning in VA.  

That’s how I feel about child labor laws. A real slap in the face to everyone who lost an arm in a textile machine when he was 8. 

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

No. While I don’t blame you at all for feeling that way, personally I never look at political issues in terms of fairness or unfairness. I look at them in terms of what benefits us best as a society. If I believed that forgiving student loans was a viable issue (I don’t) and that it would benefit society (I think I do) then it wouldn’t matter to me that it was a slap in the face to you and others. (Well, it would matter, but it wouldn’t affect my decision.) 

Then why stop at student loan debt? Why not home loan and auto loan debt forgiveness?

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56 minutes ago, Don Quixote said:

Yeah, Bernie worries me in on an electoral vote basis too.  Besides President, I worry about trickle down on all of the down ballot stuff -- Congressmen and congresswomen in swing districts, and state elections. State elections are  going to be particularly important on a national level due to redistricting.

I read an interesting theory that voters will split the ticket b/c they wouldn't want the gop having complete control.   The theory goes that the reason the gop kept the house in 2016 is b/c most people thought clinton had the election won.   Personally, I have a tendency to do that when it comes to my house vote as I don't want the dems having complete control and I have always voted dem for pres.    It didn't talk about state level elections though so those still may be vulnerable.

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5 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Yeah, "I had to pay so we can't make it better for the people who come afterwards" is not a good look. By extension of that logic, we can't improve anything.

Right. "I took out a loan I don't want to pay. Make it go away comrade" is a much better look.

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6 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Yeah, "I had to pay so we can't make it better for the people who come afterwards" is not a good look. By extension of that logic, we can't improve anything.

This is why I prefer loan forgiveness more for teachers and public servants rather than across the board. 

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15 minutes ago, Ramsay Hunt Experience said:

That’s how I feel about child labor laws. A real slap in the face to everyone who lost an arm in a textile machine when he was 8. 

I don't want to be judgmental, but that seems really insensitive.  Slapping a one-armed person in the face, I mean.

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1 minute ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I'm not sure how much leverage you can get with just a little kid arm, might not be too bad.

Depends.  We're talking about an arm someone lost when he was eight... before child labor laws.  So that thing's been preserved for a lot of years.  It has to be full of that embalming liquid stuff they put body parts in.

Did RHE just save one of those in a jar? Because this is sounding really creepy all of a sudden.

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1 minute ago, Henry Ford said:

Depends.  We're talking about an arm someone lost when he was eight... before child labor laws.  So that thing's been preserved for a lot of years.  It has to be full of that embalming liquid stuff they put body parts in.

Did RHE just save one of those in a jar? Because this is sounding really creepy all of a sudden.

Yeah, I'm realizing that somebody that was 8 pre-child labor laws is probably in his 90s now.  Go gentle with the slapping everyone.

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5 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Depends.  We're talking about an arm someone lost when he was eight... before child labor laws.  So that thing's been preserved for a lot of years.  It has to be full of that embalming liquid stuff they put body parts in.

Did RHE just save one of those in a jar? Because this is sounding really creepy all of a sudden.

Listen, we’ve disagreed before, but when you start disparaging my family heirlooms, we have a problem. My great grandfather spent a lot of time and energy building the third—largest collection of Irish limbs lost to industrial accidents on the Eastern Seaboard. 

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Just now, Ramsay Hunt Experience said:

Listen, we’ve disagreed before, but when you start disparaging my family heirlooms, we have a problem. My great grandfather spent a lot of time and energy building the third—largest collection of Irish limbs lost to industrial accidents on the Eastern Seaboard. 

I knew it! You're not anti-child-labor laws for economic reasons at all! This is about Big Limb trying to influence the vote!

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27 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Yeah, "I had to pay so we can't make it better for the people who come afterwards" is not a good look. By extension of that logic, we can't improve anything.

It's not just "I had to pay so I want everyone else to."  It's a horrible precedent to set.  Why are we going to encourage people to go to expensive schools.

You want to make all public colleges free?  Fine.  You want to clear debt of all public colleges?  I don't love it but fine.  You want to give the private school snobs who COULD have gone to public school but instead chose to go to a school 5x as expensive the "in-state" equivalent of debt relief?  Again, I don't love it, but maybe i could be talked into it. 

But Bernie's "plan" is 100% debt forgiveness of 100% of loans for 100% of people.  good golly. 

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3 minutes ago, Sweet J said:

It's not just "I had to pay so I want everyone else to."  It's a horrible precedent to set.  Why are we going to encourage people to go to expensive schools.

You want to make all public colleges free?  Fine.  You want to clear debt of all public colleges?  I don't love it but fine.  You want to give the private school snobs who COULD have gone to public school but instead chose to go to a school 5x as expensive the "in-state" equivalent of debt relief?  Again, I don't love it, but maybe i could be talked into it. 

But Bernie's "plan" is 100% debt forgiveness of 100% of loans for 100% of people.  good golly. 

I personally would only like to see free college to those in certain majors.   I just don't think we have the luxury of dropping over $100k on a liberal arts major.   

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28 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

Is the point to show the potential volatility?  If so, I agree that's probable.

 

 

Exactly.  In July 2016, polls had Hillary leading Trump by nearly 20 points.  They were statistically tied by September.

There is no point in even looking at head-to-head polls featuring hypothetical match-ups in early March.  Those polls are literally meaningless.  We would make more accurate predictions reading entrails than by examining that sort of polling data.

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3 hours ago, timschochet said:

I don’t agree. I’ve been watching Biden in recent days give interviews and speeches, and my firm impression is that he sounds sharper and more clear minded than he has in months. It’s as if he’s drawing off the energy around him. I’ve made this comparison a few times before, but at the moment he reminds me very much of Ronald Reagan in 1984. 

Makes sense.  Reagan’s mind was already mush by 1984, but he was able to rally in short bursts and put on a good show for the media.

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34 minutes ago, Sweet J said:

It's not just "I had to pay so I want everyone else to."  It's a horrible precedent to set.  Why are we going to encourage people to go to expensive schools.

You want to make all public colleges free?  Fine.  You want to clear debt of all public colleges?  I don't love it but fine.  You want to give the private school snobs who COULD have gone to public school but instead chose to go to a school 5x as expensive the "in-state" equivalent of debt relief?  Again, I don't love it, but maybe i could be talked into it. 

But Bernie's "plan" is 100% debt forgiveness of 100% of loans for 100% of people.  good golly. 

Is this more dangerous than Biden’s work selling the Iraq War?  Or shilling for law enforcement tactics that ratcheted up the prison complex and put tons of black men behind bars?  We could have easily afforded every stupid pet project in the world by not blowing 6 trillion dollars in the Middle East.  

It’s hard for me to reconcile voting against harebrained ideas with voting for real world policies that have destroyed millions of people’s lives.  

I don’t know, I get that it’s a personal decision and we all have our issues.  Just seems like that’s a rather inconsequential one versus their respective lifetime bodies of work.  

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Biden supporters better hope Bloomberg stays in the race.  If not, the Sanders/Biden head to head debates are going to be like Young Mike Tyson v. anyone.  Biden desperately needs Mike around to attack Bernie and to cover his speaking time.

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10 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Biden supporters better hope Bloomberg stays in the race.  If not, the Sanders/Biden head to head debates are going to be like Young Mike Tyson v. anyone.  Biden desperately needs Mike around to attack Bernie and to cover his speaking time.

I'm not sure you want Bernie talking more than he currently does.  The more the field has thinned, the worse his performance has been perceived in debates.

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Every single Republican scenario to win this year runs through Florida.  If the Democrats take Florida, it's going to be virtually impossible for Trump to win.

So conceding Florida by nominating Bernie seems like a strategically foolish move.

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43 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Exactly.  In July 2016, polls had Hillary leading Trump by nearly 20 points.  They were statistically tied by September.

There is no point in even looking at head-to-head polls featuring hypothetical match-ups in early March.  Those polls are literally meaningless.  We would make more accurate predictions reading entrails than by examining that sort of polling data.

Are these polls also literally meaningless?  What about this one?

I think they are valuable as a snapshot in time.  

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5 hours ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

This used to be true but I think those days are past. It's getting difficult to even watch him stammer and gaffe. He's not getting better, he's in serious decline. And we haven't even reached the starting line.

He was the "cool VP" to one of the most popular Presidents ever. Should have quit on top. 

sorry, but this literally made me laugh out loud in my cube.  had to make up an excuse.

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1 minute ago, bigmarc27 said:

Obama going to sit this out or endorse Biden at some point?  I feel like that would just about put this one down. 

After Super Tuesday if Biden has a strong showing it will come. 

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