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***Official Joe Biden Campaign Thread


Joe Bryant

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Just now, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I don't know.

I'd recommend thinking about it a bit.  In my opinion (and various Sanders supporters have conceded repeatedly) Sanders is going to have a very tough time in PA and FL.  I don't think they're very likely at all to go to him.  And there's really not much chance he wins AZ.  So that really leaves one path - North Carolina and Wisconsin.

Do you think Sanders wins North Carolina?

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5 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Every single Republican scenario to win this year runs through Florida.  If the Democrats take Florida, it's going to be virtually impossible for Trump to win.

So conceding Florida by nominating Bernie seems like a strategically foolish move.

Do you see Biden beating Trump in Florida?  I don’t.  Hillary didn’t either.  Not to say it should be conceded but main focus should be to reconnect with the swing states (and former Democratic strongholds) they lost in 2016.  

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3 hours ago, timschochet said:

I don’t agree. I’ve been watching Biden in recent days give interviews and speeches, and my firm impression is that he sounds sharper and more clear minded than he has in months. It’s as if he’s drawing off the energy around him. I’ve made this comparison a few times before, but at the moment he reminds me very much of Ronald Reagan in 1984. 

I’d be on board with them injecting him daily with amphetamines until November 4th.

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2 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

Do you see Biden beating Trump in Florida?  I don’t.  Hillary didn’t either.  Not to say it should be conceded but main focus should be to reconnect with the swing states (and former Democratic strongholds) they lost in 2016.  

Oh, you mean like Florida, which Democrats won in 2008 and 2012?

Edited by Henry Ford
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Just now, ren hoek said:

Do you see Biden beating Trump in Florida?  I don’t.  Hillary didn’t either.  Not to say it should be conceded but main focus should be to reconnect with the swing states (and former Democratic strongholds) they lost in 2016.  

These polls show he can...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html


Regardless, the D has to win SoFla and Fidel Sanders just killed any hope of that happening for him. 

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2 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

I'd recommend thinking about it a bit.  In my opinion (and various Sanders supporters have conceded repeatedly) Sanders is going to have a very tough time in PA and FL.  I don't think they're very likely at all to go to him.  And there's really not much chance he wins AZ.  So that really leaves one path - North Carolina and Wisconsin.

Do you think Sanders wins North Carolina?

I have thought a lot about it.  I still don't know to any real degree of certainty.  I can see reasonable arguments favoring each of the remaining candidates.  I don't know which of those arguments is most accurate. 

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6 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

Are these polls also literally meaningless?  What about this one?

I think they are valuable as a snapshot in time.  

Not to mention, Clinton had a ton of flaws that put her on a downward trajectory in 2016.  A laughably corrupt candidate with positions that changed with the wind under FBI investigation.  Sanders has tons of upside and an extremely strong base.  I just don’t see people turning out for Biden like the pundits say.  People aren’t going to turn out for a stale message hinged on not being Trump.  

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1 minute ago, ren hoek said:

Not to mention, Clinton had a ton of flaws that put her on a downward trajectory in 2016.  A laughably corrupt candidate with positions that changed with the wind under FBI investigation.  Sanders has tons of upside and an extremely strong base.  I just don’t see people turning out for Biden like the pundits say.  People aren’t going to turn out for a stale message hinged on not being Trump.  

His VP pick is certainly going to be important.  It needs to be seen as grooming the next President for a win.

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3 minutes ago, bigmarc27 said:

These polls show he can...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html


Regardless, the D has to win SoFla and Fidel Sanders just killed any hope of that happening for him. 

A 1.7% lead in March before people have really had exposure to this weak candidate, before the GOP rolls out its billion dollar campaign exposing how terrible he is?  Well golly hand it over to Joe, he’s got this!  

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3 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

If you were a Republican in early March 2016, I think it's likely you were hearing a lot of the same arguments.  "Who do you think is more likely to win Florida and the rust belt?  Trump or Kasich?"  

You seem to have an unstated premise, here, that Kasich would have lost to Clinton.

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5 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

A 1.7% lead in March before people have really had exposure to this weak candidate, before the GOP rolls out its billion dollar campaign exposing how terrible he is?  Well golly hand it over to Joe, he’s got this!  

That's kind of the thing - they've already rolled out their campaign about how terrible he is.  They haven't even done that to Sanders yet.  They're still talking about how great Sanders is because they want Sanders as the opponent.

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Just now, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

My only premise is that in my opinion you are WAY too confident that Bernie would lose.

Oh, there's still a path for him to win.  It's just a whole lot narrower.  Provided he could get a few hundred million dollars' worth of foreign interference and get the FBI to make an announcement that they're reopening an investigation into Trump a couple weeks before the election, and somehow manage to convince half the internet that Trump eats babies at elaborate "Spirit Cooking" dinners, he could definitely still do it.

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10 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

A 1.7% lead in March before people have really had exposure to this weak candidate, before the GOP rolls out its billion dollar campaign exposing how terrible he is?  Well golly hand it over to Joe, he’s got this!  

The damage is done in FL.  Castro in FL in like Hitler to Jews. 

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Just now, Henry Ford said:

Oh, there's still a path for him to win.  It's just a whole lot narrower.  Provided he could get a few hundred million dollars' worth of foreign interference and get the FBI to make an announcement that they're reopening an investigation into Trump a couple weeks before the election, and somehow manage to convince half the internet that Trump eats babies at elaborate "Spirit Cooking" dinners, he could definitely still do it.

See?!!!  Was that so hard?

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3 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Because you don't think it's true? Or because you think old people losing some of their mental facilities is funny?

about Trump? definitely

about Biden? maybe, haven't watched him enough yet

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2 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

That's kind of the thing - they've already rolled out their campaign about how terrible he is.  They haven't even done that to Sanders yet.  They're still talking about how great Sanders is because they want Sanders as the opponent.

Nope- they sure haven’t.  And there is a metric ton of damaging oppo on him.  Not to mention the fact that he is an extremely weak and feeble candidate that doesn’t excite people.  

The ‘Castro’ stuff falls apart upon basic scrutiny, and being able to hold two ideas in your head at the same time.  It might not get Florida, but there’s 50 states and tons of Trump/crossover/independent country to deal with as well. 

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5 minutes ago, bigmarc27 said:

The damage is done in FL.  Castro in FL in like Hitler to Jews. 

Sanders has zero shot of winning Florida in the primary or general election. Like seriously......zero shot. Not only did he infuriate the cuban vote, he has lost a lot of the Jewish votes too with his talk on Israel. 

Anyway. I see Biden getting the nomination. It is starting to come together for him. SC was the start, Super Tuesday can be another momentum gathering event and then he will win Florida as well in the primary. This will be an interesting convention to say the least.

Biden has my vote. Always had it to be frank because I truly always believed he was the only candidate that had a real chance to beat Trump. I still think it will be too close to call in the general......but Biden has a real punchers chance.

Edited by Todem
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3 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

Nope- they sure haven’t.  And there is a metric ton of damaging oppo on him.  Not to mention the fact that he is an extremely weak and feeble candidate that doesn’t excite people.  

The ‘Castro’ stuff falls apart upon basic scrutiny, and being able to hold two ideas in your head at the same time.  It might not get Florida, but there’s 50 states and tons of Trump/crossover/independent country to deal with as well. 

There are 50 states.  Six of them will almost certainly decide this election.  The most important is Florida.  The second most important is Pennsylvania.  The third most important is North Carolina.

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2 hours ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Then why stop at student loan debt? Why not home loan and auto loan debt forgiveness?

Forgiving student loans give the young people in our society money to spend to buy homes. That’s what creates a stable, prosperous society (home buying by young people.) 

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Just now, timschochet said:

Forgiving student loans give the young people in our society money to spend to buy homes. That’s what creates a stable, prosperous society (home buying by young people.) 

But it only gives money to the young people who took on loans they couldn't handle, not the responsible young people who paid their debts or chose more responsible options.

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11 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

I understand why you laughed yes. But seriously, watch some Biden. It's more sad than funny at this point.

I'm of the belief that what Trump supporters say is important. Maybe that's not a great belief but there it is, and they are raising this. Tucker Carlson was certainly pushing it last night. And what I see is an effort to recreate the Hillary 2016 rubric. In this aspect, the gaffe-prone opponent aspect (there are others), I don't think this plays out like Hillary. Hillary was gaffe prone, but in a flawed, wooden way. - Personally I think these Biden moments - "c'mon America you know the thing...' - will wind up endearing him to Americans. He's a warm speaker with a positive attitude who admittedly gets ahead of his skis. I just don't see the same impact.

Now for people who actually care about mental acuity and capacity as a true value upon which to base a voting decision, I think Trump's regular gaffes come out way worse, especially as they typically reflect his basic ignorance of essential issues, facts, geography and history.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006
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16 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

But it only gives money to the young people who took on loans they couldn't handle, not the responsible young people who paid their debts or chose more responsible options.

IMO, your assumption that most people who struggle with student loan repayments are irresponsible is a gross misconception. 

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59 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

My only premise is that in my opinion you are WAY too confident that Bernie would lose.

I think anybody who wins the nomination of one of the two major parties has at least a 30% chance of victory.  Admittedly that number is based largely on gut feeling, but there is a baked-in level of tribal support that automatically flows to the nominee, and so many of the states are slam-dunks that an otherwise-shaky candidate really just needs a few things to break right for them to pull out a win.

IMO, Sanders is more likely to lose than most other Democratic candidates, but he's not a sure loser.

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13 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

You're asking me if I think Sanders would carry California and if Trump would carry Alabama?  I don't need polling data to answer that one.

I was refuting the idea that head-to-head polling data is "literally meaningless".  If they were, it would be a huge coincidence that California and Alabama results are about what we'd expect.

 

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56 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Now for people who actually care about mental acuity and capacity as a true value upon which to base a voting decision, I think Trump's regular gaffes come out way worse, especially as they typically reflect his basic ignorance of essential issues, facts, geography and history.

so Ivanka hasn't created 15m new jobs?

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1 hour ago, Henry Ford said:

There are 50 states.  Six of them will almost certainly decide this election.  The most important is Florida.  The second most important is Pennsylvania.  The third most important is North Carolina.

Thanks, this will save me a lot of time on election night. 

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2 hours ago, Henry Ford said:

There are 50 states.  Six of them will almost certainly decide this election.  The most important is Florida.  The second most important is Pennsylvania.  The third most important is North Carolina.

Maybe it is just my bubble, but it will be very hard for Bernie/Warren to win in NC.  There are 60k+ banking employees in Charlotte alone and it is difficult to expect those people to vote for candidates that constantly vilify their employers. I will, but I know a lot who will do 3rd party/Trump if one of those make it.

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7 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

Maybe it is just my bubble, but it will be very hard for Bernie/Warren to win in NC.  There are 60k+ banking employees in Charlotte alone and it is difficult to expect those people to vote for candidates that constantly vilify their employers. I will, but I know a lot who will do 3rd party/Trump if one of those make it.

It's not just your bubble.

Edit: Bernie might be able to win Pennsylvania, despite the difficulties.  I don't believe he has much chance at the other two.

Edited by Henry Ford
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26 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

Maybe it is just my bubble, but it will be very hard for Bernie/Warren to win in NC.  There are 60k+ banking employees in Charlotte alone and it is difficult to expect those people to vote for candidates that constantly vilify their employers. I will, but I know a lot who will do 3rd party/Trump if one of those make it.

Most bank employees I know hate the employer, but that may be my bubble.

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Text exchange...

Hey Scott, it's Jessica with Bernie 2020! Did you hear? Bernie is hosting a Rally in Phoenix on Thursday, Mar 5 at 6:30 PM. Are you able to join him?

Thanks for the invite but I'm busy that day riding the No Malarkey Express. 🚃

Ok, I understand. Have a great rest of your day!

You too 🙂

 

 

I wonder if they really understand the reference.

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Just now, BassNBrew said:

 I don’t want to hear any of the board liberals talk about our poor health care system or global warming now that you’ve every candidate that was going to adore these issues 

Guess you should probably keep that "ignore" button handy, then.

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