timschochet said:
...on an infrastructure deal.
The wall fight is over. Trump lost. There’s not going to be another shutdown. Maybe there will be a border security for DACA deal, maybe Trump will declare a national emergency (he’ll just look foolish and lose in the courts if he tries) but there won’t be a wall. Time to move on.
The Democrats can gloat and have a bunch of committees investigating Trump, but I don’t think this will go down well with the public. Barring a miracle, Trump is a one term lame duck. He was an experiment that some people in the Midwest wanted to try out; it turned out awful, they won’t do it again. The next President will be a Democrat, and 2019-20 will be largely devoted to finding out which one.
That leaves us the question of what the federal government should do over the next couple of years. The one thing that polls consistently tell us is that everyone, conservative and liberal and independent alike, is sick of all the fighting. They want something accomplished, something big. Infrastructure seems like the obvious choice.
Two things I disagree with here:
First, no way I view Trump as a lame duck. I've said since he was elected that I view him as 50/50 to get a second term, and while I might put it at slightly less than that after the last couple weeks, I still think Democrats underestimate him at their peril. Particularly if they nominate an uninspiring candidate, he could very easily win with roughly the same map as 2016.
Second, I think the biggest problem with your formulation is that you assume a normal functioning political system where both parties are pursuing the same goal, and just have slightly different ways to get there. But that's not how things work nowadays. The GOP caucus is effectively controlled by a faction that has zero interest in compromising to achieve part, or even most, of their goals. Not only will they reject anything short of their maximalist demands, they will punish any Republicans who want to form a working coalition with Democrats (see, Hastert Rule). Trump is mostly in agreement with this group, and to the extent that he isn't, he is captured by them (eg, when he blew up an agreement to fund the government because Anne Coulter criticized him).
We have already seen this dynamic play out with the shutdown as well as last year's immigration compromise. Furthermore, given the fact that Pelosi just dog-walked him over the shutdown and he's seen as weak, the last thing the House Freedom Caucus is going to stand for is Trump cutting a deal with Pelosi. He wants to focus on the exact opposite -- repairing his relationship with the GOP base and proving he's not a loser.
In practical terms, the way that would play out in terms of an infrastructure bill is that the right wing would only sign on to a bill that they knew was unacceptable to Dems. That wouldn't be an issue in the House, which would presumably pass something the Dems actually wanted, but it would almost certainly lead to Trump following the lead of the HFC and opposing it, which would in turn lead to McConnell refusing to bring it up in the Senate.
Now, what if they sat down ahead of time and tried to hammer out a compromise? Well, conservatives wouldn't trust Trump to cut a deal, and Democrats would have zero confidence that he'd actually stick to anything they could get him to agree to.
(And before anyone tries to "both sides" this problem, yes, there would also be pressure from the left not to work with Trump. The difference is that Pelosi is a strong enough leader that if she were able to cut a mostly favorable deal with Trump that he actually stuck to, she could get her caucus behind it.)
In other words, all of the incentives are against anyone making a deal.