Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Who Were The Most Overrated & Underrated Players Of 2018?


Recommended Posts

I bought in on Mahomes before the season started based on the fact the Chiefs traded a Top 5 fantasy QB from the season before to have Mahomes as their starter. To me, that was a case of Reid knowing what he had, so I expected production better than Smith from 2017.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Good call there except for the missing a bit on Woods. I was willing to accept Goff would throw more because he was so low in 2017 but I didn't think he would stay nearly as efficient in yards/attempt, completion % or TD %. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Good call there except for the missing a bit on Woods. I was willing to accept Goff would throw more because he was so low in 2017 but I didn't think he would stay nearly as efficient in yards/attempt, completion % or TD %. 

Injuries to Kupp and Gurley changed things somewhat. I pretty much expect most teams to throw near the average unless they have a history of doing something different. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Injuries to Kupp and Gurley changed things somewhat. I pretty much expect most teams to throw near the average unless they have a history of doing something different. 

Losing Kupp might have slowed down Woods. Kupp was lost for the season after game 8. The first 8 games Woods was on a 16 game pace for 1344/6 and the last 8 games with out Kupp was 1094/6. That difference could also just be random chance or a SOS difference. Seems negligible. 

I agree about the average. It didn't surprise me they threw more, it surprised me that the efficiency stayed on point with the increased throws. Usually, we see efficiency drop as volume increases. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Losing Kupp might have slowed down Woods. Kupp was lost for the season after game 8. The first 8 games Woods was on a 16 game pace for 1344/6 and the last 8 games with out Kupp was 1094/6. That difference could also just be random chance or a SOS difference. Seems negligible. 

I agree about the average. It didn't surprise me they threw more, it surprised me that the efficiency stayed on point with the increased throws. Usually, we see efficiency drop as volume increases. 

Yeah efficiency tends to go down with more volume. So when it doesn't, that is unusual and a sign of great play by Goff moreso than his supporting cast, which is excellent.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Gally said:

 

David Johnson finished as an RB1 (right around RB10) in most scoring systems.  How overrated was he actually?  The team itself was dreadful and he didn't have the huge games he has had in the past but overall he wasn't as bad as the perception that most had for his season.  He was still an auto start every week and returned starting caliber performance.

 

I would think he is a good opportunity to be way undervalued because of this misconception that he had a bad year.  The unrealistic high expectations he had last year overshadowed his actually solid performance.  I think that was a floor for him so he might have a lot of value for this year. 

His RB10 finish is a product of staying healthy all year and a lot of receptions. He was RB12 in PPG, bouyed by one huge game in week 10. The other 15 games of the year he averaged mid to low RB2 numbers. That's pretty disappointing especially when his ADP was 4th overall.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah efficiency tends to go down with more volume. So when it doesn't, that is unusual and a sign of great play by Goff moreso than his supporting cast, which is excellent.

Yep and a smart staff. You definitely did a better job calling that situation than I did. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Buckna said:

His RB10 finish is a product of staying healthy all year and a lot of receptions. He was RB12 in PPG, bouyed by one huge game in week 10. The other 15 games of the year he averaged mid to low RB2 numbers. That's pretty disappointing especially when his ADP was 4th overall.

Disappointing for sure but he was at least a player that could be started every week. I also like it for this year. We have seen DJ's floor and it's pretty safe. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Disappointing for sure but he was at least a player that could be started every week. I also like it for this year. We have seen DJ's floor and it's pretty safe. 

Depending on how far his ADP tumbles he may be a value play in redraft this year, I agree. I have a feeling he will get talked up again though as pre-season optimism takes over (Kingsbury will revolutionize football! Murray will turn the Card's around!) and will probably go too high because his "floor" as you call is probabaly closer to his most likely statline for 2019.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, the lone star said:

I just generally don't like Dak, so that's always going to be my answer, lol.

If I were to pick someone else, it would probably be David Johnson. Perhaps Big Ben.

Dak actually looked like a value to me last year. ADP of QB17 and finished as QB12 in my league. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Dak actually looked like a value to me last year. ADP of QB17 and finished as QB12 in my league. 

just starting conversation...not being snarky....but I see comments like this....and I guess in my mind they don't really mean much to me in fantasy....in a 12 team league....that means he is barely startable.....and as QB17 he probably saw very few "fantasy starts" because his owner probably had somebody else....and even though DAK ended up as QB12, most of those were wasted points as he was never really in a starting fantasy lineup....so end of year stuff says he was 5 QB's worth of value.....but its "empty" value....

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

just starting conversation...not being snarky....but I see comments like this....and I guess in my mind they don't really mean much to me in fantasy....in a 12 team league....that means he is barely startable.....and as QB17 he probably saw very few "fantasy starts" because his owner probably had somebody else....and even though DAK ended up as QB12, most of those were wasted points as he was never really in a starting fantasy lineup....so end of year stuff says he was 5 QB's worth of value.....but its "empty" value....

Oh yeah I agree, unless it’s a 2 QB league QB12 isn’t interesting. I was just wondering how Dak could be considered the most overrated player in fantasy last year and now we know. Lone star just personally dislikes Dak.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, the lone star said:

I just generally don't like Dak, so that's always going to be my answer, lol.

If I were to pick someone else, it would probably be David Johnson. Perhaps Big Ben.

What the hell?  Ben finished as QB3 in FBG scoring last year.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/15/2019 at 12:03 PM, Ilov80s said:

And Leveon Bell was easily the most overrated. That had nothing to do with a talent eval but a situational eval. Nobody have serious thought to the idea that he might not play and all the through the process he remained at 1.02 in ADP.  FF Calculator shows that his lowest draft spot with 5th overall. 

That was definitely unprecidented. 

History had taught me to ignore hold outs for the most part.

Some times you have to unlearn what you have learned.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

That was definitely unprecidented. 

History had taught me to ignore hold outs for the most part.

Some times you have to unlearn what you have learned.

Yep and everyone missed it. Even when were days away from the season and there was no movement, everybody was still advocating Lev Bell in the top 2.

Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

just starting conversation...not being snarky....but I see comments like this....and I guess in my mind they don't really mean much to me in fantasy....in a 12 team league....that means he is barely startable.....and as QB17 he probably saw very few "fantasy starts" because his owner probably had somebody else....and even though DAK ended up as QB12, most of those were wasted points as he was never really in a starting fantasy lineup....so end of year stuff says he was 5 QB's worth of value.....but its "empty" value....

The last quarter of the season he was QB5 and 3/10's of a point away from Mahommes.  Actually he was QB5 from week 5 on.  His slow start doomed him to low yearly ranking, but he was quite playable and an asset most of the season.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

The last quarter of the season he was QB5 and 3/10's of a point away from Mahommes.  Actually he was QB5 from week 5 on.  His slow start doomed him to low yearly ranking, but he was quite playable and an asset most of the season.

if only we could find out when those sweet spots are about to start and/or end before we even draft.....kind of like if you knew which weeks to start Winston or Fitzpatrick there for awhile last year...

Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

if only we could find out when those sweet spots are about to start and/or end before we even draft.....kind of like if you knew which weeks to start Winston or Fitzpatrick there for awhile last year...

The correct answer was start the starting TB QB every week.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

The correct answer was start the starting TB QB every week.

not true and was actually my point.....there was a time when you probably lost about 3-5 games when you started the TB announced "starter"....as they were pulled at halftime or sooner....if you could start Tampa Bay Team QB then you may have been on to something....

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Dak actually looked like a value to me last year. ADP of QB17 and finished as QB12 in my league. 

I looked in one of my leagues and the only way he finished at #12 was if you counted week 17, his best game of the year by far that counted nothing for most leagues.   Just dropping it to 16 games he drops to 15th and if you look at starting him during the first 13 games he was #16 in that league.  You aren't making the playoffs starting the #16 QB unless you are lucky enough to be absolutely loaded elsewhere.  He was o.k. as an injury fill-in if you caught him in the right week or could work as a serviceable backup but in general you probably could have picked up an equivalent starter off the waiver wire in a redraft most weeks, he was not regular starter material.   

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Stinkin Ref said:

not true and was actually my point.....there was a time when you probably lost about 3-5 games when you started the TB announced "starter"....as they were pulled at halftime or sooner....if you could start Tampa Bay Team QB then you may have been on to something....

There were 3 games where Tampa swapped QBs. 

Fitz 19, Winston 19

Fitz 15, Winston 19

Fitz 6, Winston 12

Goff was QB 6 and he scored below 15 four times. Were you able to predict when this those 4 dud games were coming anymore than one could have predicted when Tampa would bench theirs?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Men-in-Cleats said:

I looked in one of my leagues and the only way he finished at #12 was if you counted week 17, his best game of the year by far that counted nothing for most leagues.   Just dropping it to 16 games he drops to 15th and if you look at starting him during the first 13 games he was #16 in that league.  You aren't making the playoffs starting the #16 QB unless you are lucky enough to be absolutely loaded elsewhere.  He was o.k. as an injury fill-in if you caught him in the right week or could work as a serviceable backup but in general you probably could have picked up an equivalent starter off the waiver wire in a redraft most weeks, he was not regular starter material.   

Probably right, I just looked at overall. So you agree with lone star that Dak was the most overrated fantasy player of 2018? Because that’s the argument I was disagreeing with.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

The last quarter of the season he was QB5 and 3/10's of a point away from Mahommes.  Actually he was QB5 from week 5 on.  His slow start doomed him to low yearly ranking, but he was quite playable and an asset most of the season.

If you went from week 5 to the end of the regular season he was QB 14 in the league I checked, QB12 if you go to week 16.  If you look at the last quarter of the season you are obviously looking at the last 4 games of the season which went 39 - 6 - 18 - 43 in the league I checked and likely wouldn't have gotten to use the 43 pointer unless they had a week 17 Super Bowl, and likely would have gotten taken out by the dud in week 15.  Maholmes worst game in that same quarter of the season was 243 yards and 2 TD's and no picks, he wouldn't have won it for you that week but he certainly wouldn't have lost it for you either. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Probably right, I just looked at overall. So you agree with lone star that Dak was the most overrated fantasy player of 2018? Because that’s the argument I was disagreeing with.

No, he probably fell pretty darn close to where he was rated, was more commenting on him being a viable starter as he wasn't in the top 12 for most of the season and even after the Cooper deal was very hit or miss. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Men-in-Cleats said:

No, he probably fell pretty darn close to where he was rated, was more commenting on him being a viable starter as he wasn't in the top 12 for most of the season and even after the Cooper deal was very hit or miss. 

He was a viable starter for stretches and especially good for 2 QB leagues but you are right he wasn’t a major difference maker or winning leagues. Though for a guy who likely could have been added off of waivers after week 4 or 5, he gave teams a decent ROI.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Men-in-Cleats said:

If you went from week 5 to the end of the regular season he was QB 14 in the league I checked, QB12 if you go to week 16.  If you look at the last quarter of the season you are obviously looking at the last 4 games of the season which went 39 - 6 - 18 - 43 in the league I checked and likely wouldn't have gotten to use the 43 pointer unless they had a week 17 Super Bowl, and likely would have gotten taken out by the dud in week 15.  Maholmes worst game in that same quarter of the season was 243 yards and 2 TD's and no picks, he wouldn't have won it for you that week but he certainly wouldn't have lost it for you either. 

An scoring can vary wildly. I just used the fbg stats

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/15/2019 at 4:27 PM, Joe Bryant said:

Absolutely. That's exactly why we release the "What We Learned" series in February. 

No worry at all about drawing attention to what we learned. We spend four big feature articles on that. 

Thanks and as always, we'll hope to do even better this year. 

Those articles would be more useful if you had all the staffers revisit their rankings.  I'd pay to see some measurement of how individual staffers did at each position with some commentary mixed in.  

  • Love 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, the lone star said:

Yeah, Rodgers is a good pick.

Rodgers was hurt in week 1 and was never the same. Not sure he was overrated. He had some bad luck.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, kutta said:

Rodgers was hurt in week 1 and was never the same. Not sure he was overrated. He had some bad luck.

But I think that's also why he's overrated. He's had injuries before and some of them have been on him. Like, had he not rolled out and extended the play, he probably wouldn't have been injured. It's cool that he can extend plays, but you also gotta get rid of the ball quickly and stay protected as best you can. 

Maybe a new coach will help him get rid of it more quickly though. The offense needs to become more Pats-like for sure.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, the lone star said:

lol, I guess so. I made sure to include that in the OP and the description of this forum says general NFL talk is welcome, but it seems like it is, of course, fantasy-heavy in here.

Ben was definitely overrated in NFL. He threw the ball 248 more times than Wilson last year and somehow had 1 less TD pass. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Ben was definitely overrated in NFL. He threw the ball 248 more times than Wilson last year and somehow had 1 less TD pass. 

He wasn't a difference maker in some games where he could have have easily provided that difference. Sometimes, he was a difference maker in the bad way.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, the lone star said:

He wasn't a difference maker in some games where he could have have easily provided that difference. Sometimes, he was a difference maker in the bad way.

I agree, his fantasy success was totally driven by volume.

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you all think there is a difference between improving and being underrated?

Like, I think Tom Brady could improve, but I don't think you can call him underrated. I just ask because I believe someone on here mistook them to be the same thing.

In whatever case, here are my picks for most and least improved players on offense and defense.

Most ImprovedJaylon Smith & Trubisky
Least Improved: Tre'Davious White, Fournette, and Keelan Cole.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...