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Darwin Thompson, Chiefs RB


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Got to the 14th round yesterday, needed a lottery ticket. Scooped up Thompson. 

Bear in mind, it’s an IDP format, so adjusted for defensive players that closer to 11th/12th round.

really happy to have him on my taxi squad. If anything happens to DWill, he could be a league-winner. 

DWill looks really good - he went 2.10, shockingly. 

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I could care less about where the teams KC is playing are ranked in run defense. Damien is going to be facing light boxes all year long. You think they’re going to be focusing on stopping the run with Tyreek, Kelce and Mahomes on the field? And when those guys are covered you’re going to see a lot more dump-offs to Williams out of the backfield because he’s an exceptional pass-catching back, and has 4.4 speed to take it to the house. 

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There is a couple of great articles about running back efficiency for the various teams on The Athletic right now. The Chiefs are far and away the most efficient at using running backs.

Seth Keysor wrote one as a follow up to a Ben Baldwin piece. Worth checking out.

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8 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I could care less about where the teams KC is playing are ranked in run defense. Damien is going to be facing light boxes all year long. You think they’re going to be focusing on stopping the run with Tyreek, Kelce and Mahomes on the field? And when those guys are covered you’re going to see a lot more dump-offs to Williams out of the backfield because he’s an exceptional pass-catching back, and has 4.4 speed to take it to the house. 

Exceptional pass catching back?  He has 108 career catches for 893 yards in 5 NFL seasons.  It may be a bit of a stretch to call him exceptional at anything aside maybe from running fast - which he does do.

I realize he had limited playing time, but in addition to there probably being a reason for that, it also does not provide enough data to call him exceptional at it.

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2 minutes ago, Warhogs said:

If you were going to trade DT right now what rookie this year (which QB,RB,WR or TE would you have ahead of him) or draft pick next year would it take? 

I am probably on an island, but I personally would take Darwin at 1.4.  Nobody else after Jacobs, Montgomery, and Sanders inspires me at all.  Damien Williams is just a guy.  The road to Darwin owning that backfield is short and flat.  And thats a great backfield to own.

Only other considerations would be Hock or DK for me after those top 3.

I would trade him though for a 2020 first except maybe for one that will clearly be real late.  Stacked draft from what I understand.

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4 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

Exceptional pass catching back?  He has 108 career catches for 893 yards in 5 NFL seasons.  It may be a bit of a stretch to call him exceptional at anything aside maybe from running fast - which he does do.

I realize he had limited playing time, but in addition to there probably being a reason for that, it also does not provide enough data to call him exceptional at it.

Yes, exceptional. He can run any route you need out of the backfield or line up as a wide receiver, and he has great hands. 

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5 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Yes, exceptional. He can run any route you need out of the backfield or line up as a wide receiver, and he has great hands. 

Maybe so.  It would mean that 5 years of coaching staffs somehow missed it (including KC, who only used him out of pure necessity), but it was Miami for most of those years, so....

ETA - Never seen more than 31 targets or had more than 23 catches in a season

Edited by ChuckLiddell
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Where is this bastard going this week? Have my draft this weekend and starting to come around to the DWill/DThom combo. I remember first looking into him about a month ago we were looking at round 14 maybe. But that’s obviously not the case now - thanks hype from all fantasy outlets. God I hate to even say it but are we thinking 7 for a guarantee? I would shoot for 8 or 9 if I did not take DWill but if I do I would reach a bit more I think. And now with Hyde all but nonexistent people are just steadily moving DT up the board. 

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5 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

Where is this bastard going this week? Have my draft this weekend and starting to come around to the DWill/DThom combo. I remember first looking into him about a month ago we were looking at round 14 maybe. But that’s obviously not the case now - thanks hype from all fantasy outlets. God I hate to even say it but are we thinking 7 for a guarantee? I would shoot for 8 or 9 if I did not take DWill but if I do I would reach a bit more I think. And now with Hyde all but nonexistent people are just steadily moving DT up the board. 

7th round is about right to guarantee.

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BB10s adp page (previously MFL10s) allows you to break down adps on a per day basis.  It also shows the highest and lowest places where he was picked.  In the last 2 days, the earliest he was picked in any draft was pick 80 and pick 81 so you're probably pretty safe waiting until the 8th round to draft him.  Personally, I'd wait until the 9th round since there is still a 50% of getting him.  There is probably a 75% chance he'll be there in round 9 if it's a local league.  Obviously, he is much more likely to be available in the early 9th round than the late 9th round.  Here are Darwin's adps from each day this month:

August

1st   189

2nd  172

3rd   171

4th   180

5th   174

6th   178

7th   171

8th   170

9th   170

10th  173

11th  155

12th  155

13th  151

14th  146

15th  146

16th  140

17th  147

18th  130

19th  125

20th  123

21st  115

22nd  104

23rd  97

24th  93

25th  91

26th  90

27th  93

28th  94

29th  91

Edited by Don Hutson
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On 8/26/2019 at 2:21 PM, ChuckLiddell said:

Maybe so.  It would mean that 5 years of coaching staffs somehow missed it (including KC, who only used him out of pure necessity), but it was Miami for most of those years, so....

ETA - Never seen more than 31 targets or had more than 23 catches in a season

You said it yourself, it was MyHammy.

KC is notorious for RB diamonds. Damn Will (DeAngel took DWill, eff off) was behind your boy Kareem the dream and not-for-long Spencer B. Ware. And don't forget a certain Ravens undersized platoon RB.

Started from the bottom.

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I'm in a semi dynasty keep-8 league I just joined this year and would love to have him.  I pick 1.06 but feel like that might be a bit early for him so going to target him hard at 2.07.  Fingers crossed I get him, but might be playing a dangerous game.

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4 minutes ago, Deamon said:

I'm in a semi dynasty keep-8 league I just joined this year and would love to have him.  I pick 1.06 but feel like that might be a bit early for him so going to target him hard at 2.07.  Fingers crossed I get him, but might be playing a dangerous game.

I seriously doubt he'll make it back to the 2.07, man.

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4 minutes ago, Deamon said:

I'm in a semi dynasty keep-8 league I just joined this year and would love to have him.  I pick 1.06 but feel like that might be a bit early for him so going to target him hard at 2.07.  Fingers crossed I get him, but might be playing a dangerous game.

All the recent hype, I wouldn’t hold your breath. It’s gettin kinda crazy out there. 

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4 minutes ago, jm192 said:

I would take him at 1.06 or 1.07

Jacobs

Montgomery

Sanders

Harry

Henderson

Maybe JJAW?

I’d be tempted to take Monty over Jacobs, purely for quality of team/trust in coaching/ownership. 

I don’t trust Mark Davis to spend what he needs to make the Raiders a winner.

i trust the Eagles to put a competitive team on the field every year.

I think Gruden is wildly overrated & may well fall flat on his face as Raiders coach. 

Time will tell, but if I’ve got 1st pick in a rookie draft I’m checking with team 2 to see if I can work out a trade to get 1.02 + something to move down one spot if they want Jacobs. 

Personal preference. I’m sure many will disagree with me. 

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OK...with Darwin's meteoritic rise up the ranks, wouldn't this be a great time to try and sell in dynasty? See what you can get for him from the D. Williams owner? I mean, I'm a believer in Thompson...I gave up a 2020 2nd during our rookie draft in May to move up and get him in the early 3rd, but...this is getting a little crazy. I'm in no way a believer of Williams and although the Chiefs have had top tier RBs in their stable....the position has mostly been a revolving door in KC. Would you trade him for a 2020 1st? I think I would.

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2 hours ago, Black and Gold said:

OK...with Darwin's meteoritic rise up the ranks, wouldn't this be a great time to try and sell in dynasty? See what you can get for him from the D. Williams owner? I mean, I'm a believer in Thompson...I gave up a 2020 2nd during our rookie draft in May to move up and get him in the early 3rd, but...this is getting a little crazy. I'm in no way a believer of Williams and although the Chiefs have had top tier RBs in their stable....the position has mostly been a revolving door in KC. Would you trade him for a 2020 1st? I think I would.

Yes, yes it would be.  I gave him, Justice Hill, and Kupp for David Johnson, Jalen Richard, and Mark Andrews

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I'd probably take the best 2020 1st I could get right now, especially if it wasn't a projected late pick.

The bottom line is Thompson is a sub 200-pounder & isn't overly dynamic. He's definitely got some things going for him, but small (light) RBs have a big disadvantage to overcome in today's NFL. Only the most elusive with an elite overall skill set can survive as a long-term feature back, IMO. Thompson is very strong, but size (weight) transfers better than strength at the RB position due to carrying the ball.

The caveat is how much you need him this season. Is there a decent chance Thompson would actually make the difference in winning a title? His short-term situation has good upside so you have to weigh that.

Full disclosure: I'm not high on Thompson's raw ability. He's a player I'm essentially neutral on, but would acquire him at value to resell (or use if absolutely needed).

 

Edited by Football Jones
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Dwill just hasnt proven he can do it for a full season. if he was sooo good why'd Miami give up on him?  I dunno I don't think he's anything more than just a JAG. that long pass rec for TD last week has people looking at things with rosey colored glasses. he's nothing special.plays a murderer's row of run defenses, starts with Jags week one.. I just don't see him holding the gig all season long. when the Cheifs are one of the bottom 10 teams in rushing thru first 5 weeks, they're going to switch gears. DT is going to get some action. 

you can use all the 2018 numbers you want, but their schedule is brutal to begin with, and absolutely toxic last 8 weeks. DT will get his #'s but in the end, I don't think either will be nearly as effective as 2018 or cheifs 2017 rushing  numbers.

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1 hour ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Im not sure I like that deal for you long term...

For sure. But I’m in win now mode.  Lamar Jackson, Barkley, DJ, Fournette, Keenan Allen, Godwin, are starters.  Certainly may see the two rooks both hit.  My league was in an uproar over the deal thinking to a man that I got an unfair lopsided victory on the deal.  

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On 8/26/2019 at 1:59 PM, JoeJoe88 said:

I could care less about where the teams KC is playing are ranked in run defense. Damien is going to be facing light boxes all year long. You think they’re going to be focusing on stopping the run with Tyreek, Kelce and Mahomes on the field? And when those guys are covered you’re going to see a lot more dump-offs to Williams out of the backfield because he’s an exceptional pass-catching back, and has 4.4 speed to take it to the house. 

And Watkins. I agree with this take completely.

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10 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’d be tempted to take Monty over Jacobs, purely for quality of team/trust in coaching/ownership. 

I don’t trust Mark Davis to spend what he needs to make the Raiders a winner.

i trust the Eagles to put a competitive team on the field every year.

I think Gruden is wildly overrated & may well fall flat on his face as Raiders coach. 

Time will tell, but if I’ve got 1st pick in a rookie draft I’m checking with team 2 to see if I can work out a trade to get 1.02 + something to move down one spot if they want Jacobs. 

Personal preference. I’m sure many will disagree with me. 

Nope. I agree 100% with you on this. That organization terrifies me into trusting they will help make Jacobs a good fantasy player. I just traded down from 1.01 to 1.03 for the very reason you just stated

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21 minutes ago, finfansteve said:

Nope. I agree 100% with you on this. That organization terrifies me into trusting they will help make Jacobs a good fantasy player. I just traded down from 1.01 to 1.03 for the very reason you just stated

I did the exact same thing and he threw in DJ Moore.

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7 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

Dwill just hasnt proven he can do it for a full season. if he was sooo good why'd Miami give up on him?  I dunno I don't think he's anything more than just a JAG. that long pass rec for TD last week has people looking at things with rosey colored glasses. he's nothing special.plays a murderer's row of run defenses, starts with Jags week one.. I just don't see him holding the gig all season long. when the Cheifs are one of the bottom 10 teams in rushing thru first 5 weeks, they're going to switch gears. DT is going to get some action. 

you can use all the 2018 numbers you want, but their schedule is brutal to begin with, and absolutely toxic last 8 weeks. DT will get his #'s but in the end, I don't think either will be nearly as effective as 2018 or cheifs 2017 rushing  numbers.

Wes Welker hasn't proven he can do it for a full season. if he was sooo good why'd Miami give up on him?  I dunno I don't think he's anything more than just a JAG. that long pass rec for TD last week has people looking at things with rosey colored glasses. he's nothing special.

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7 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

Dwill just hasnt proven he can do it for a full season. if he was sooo good why'd Miami give up on him? 

I'm gonna have to stop you right there.  The brain trust in Miami is not exactly known for their astute decision-making. 

Miami giving up on him informs us of almost nothing.  They're just clicking buttons out there and they have been for some time. 

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6 hours ago, elmanx said:

I'm gonna have to stop you right there.  The brain trust in Miami is not exactly known for their astute decision-making. 

Miami giving up on him informs us of almost nothing.  They're just clicking buttons out there and they have been for some time. 

I dont disagree with this, but it should also be noted that Andy Reid missed it too.  Williams got no playing time at all (6 touches for 19 yards before week 13) until it was completely dire.  After Hunt was released, Spencer Ware was being traded for future 2nd rounders all over America.  Had he not been injured immediately, Damien Williams conceivably may have been a name few people outside of Miami even knows.  He was given the keys to a Lamborghini, and to his credit he did great with them, but lets not pretend that he was some uber-talented RB who only missed out on greatness due to Miami's ineptness.  If he was so talented, a highly competent guy like Andy Reid would give him more than 6 touches in 11 games.  He is probably a JAG who is in the perfect system to make a JAG look like a stud.

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Wouldn’t surprise me if were all sitting here with our ##### in our hands when Darrell Williams gets goal line touches and Thompson third down work. Everyone is in love with the situation, rightfully so. I find it hard to be in love with these backs as a profile. Thompson comes the closest and him being a 6th round pick with one year of WAC production doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies. 

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