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Darwin Thompson, Chiefs RB


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30 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

I dont disagree with this, but it should also be noted that Andy Reid missed it too.  Williams got no playing time at all (6 touches for 19 yards before week 13) until it was completely dire.  After Hunt was released, Spencer Ware was being traded for future 2nd rounders all over America.  Had he not been injured immediately, Damien Williams conceivably may have been a name few people outside of Miami even knows.  He was given the keys to a Lamborghini, and to his credit he did great with them, but lets not pretend that he was some uber-talented RB who only missed out on greatness due to Miami's ineptness.  If he was so talented, a highly competent guy like Andy Reid would give him more than 6 touches in 11 games.  He is probably a JAG who is in the perfect system to make a JAG look like a stud.

Can we stop with the word jag?  

Veach said it best when they went out to get damien Williams last off season. They were looking for a backup rb and when they were reviewing Williams they said he's not a backup, he's a "borderline starter". 

That was before the 2018 season.  I think it's a good insight into how they see him.  A borderline starter. Not a stud.  Not an elite player at his position.  Not a career backup. Not a journeyman.   Not a role player.  It's a good term - a borderline starter. It means they could upgrade the position, but they don't necessarily have to.  

Since then, he played well when called upon, and if anything played better than they'd hoped or expected.  He's a better receiver than a runner, but they gave him 25 carries against the colts in the playoffs and trusted him to run it on 4th and 1 twice.  They extended his contract in December, almost immediately after seeing him carry the load the first time. It was not for huge money, but also without having seen him crush it in the playoffs.  

They didn't sign a top free agent, and they didn't spend a day one or day two draft pick on a running back. They called Williams the starter all through the offseason, they've treated him like the other starters, playing him sparingly and he excelled with that long touchdown reception.  

Thompson has also done well. You know what he looks like?  A borderline starter.  A guy who could take the keys to the Lamborghini if called upon, and do pretty well.  If something happens to Williams, he'd probably be a high end rb2 or low end rb1. He's probably going to get a handful of touches, and if he does real well he might even earn a 1b role.  But the 1a role doesn't seem to be up for grabs unless something happens to Williams.

That makes Thompson a very high upside backup for redraft - the kind you should take ahead of bad rb1s or even some rbbc "starters" who will outperform him early.  

For dynasty, the upside is a little higher - you're hoping he becomes the starter and stays the starter. But guess what will happen if he does?  You'll still have half of everybody talking about how he is a jag driving a Lamborghini, and you'll still be watching every draft with your hands over your eyes when the chiefs pick.  He's younger than Williams, sure, but the same issues exist.  He's a jag who looked good in a couple preseason games and in practice against guys who aren't good enough to start for the chiefs.  

People spending early firsts on him in rookie drafts are paying the absolute maximum for the hype.  It might pay off, and he could end up being better than a lot of the consensus early picks like when Jordan Howard was a better pick than the consensus top picks doctson, treadwell and Coleman at the top of another weak draft.  I won't argue with anyone getting their guy, i just think an honest assessment of the situation says that's a little too high.  

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It's a natural selection  

People seem to be getting a bit too excited right now.  From early accounts, looks like the injuries to both Shady and Williams are minor.  I’m a Thompson owner, too, but don’t expect him to be r

16 page thread for a 4th string running back. Sheesh. 

8 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Can we stop with the word jag?  

Veach said it best when they went out to get damien Williams last off season. They were looking for a backup rb and when they were reviewing Williams they said he's not a backup, he's a "borderline starter". 

That was before the 2018 season.  I think it's a good insight into how they see him.  A borderline starter. Not a stud.  Not an elite player at his position.  Not a career backup. Not a journeyman.   Not a role player.  It's a good term - a borderline starter. It means they could upgrade the position, but they don't necessarily have to.  

Since then, he played well when called upon, and if anything played better than they'd hoped or expected.  He's a better receiver than a runner, but they gave him 25 carries against the colts in the playoffs and trusted him to run it on 4th and 1 twice.  They extended his contract in December, almost immediately after seeing him carry the load the first time. It was not for huge money, but also without having seen him crush it in the playoffs.  

They didn't sign a top free agent, and they didn't spend a day one or day two draft pick on a running back. They called Williams the starter all through the offseason, they've treated him like the other starters, playing him sparingly and he excelled with that long touchdown reception.  

Thompson has also done well. You know what he looks like?  A borderline starter.  A guy who could take the keys to the Lamborghini if called upon, and do pretty well.  If something happens to Williams, he'd probably be a high end rb2 or low end rb1. He's probably going to get a handful of touches, and if he does real well he might even earn a 1b role.  But the 1a role doesn't seem to be up for grabs unless something happens to Williams.

That makes Thompson a very high upside backup for redraft - the kind you should take ahead of bad rb1s or even some rbbc "starters" who will outperform him early.  

For dynasty, the upside is a little higher - you're hoping he becomes the starter and stays the starter. But guess what will happen if he does?  You'll still have half of everybody talking about how he is a jag driving a Lamborghini, and you'll still be watching every draft with your hands over your eyes when the chiefs pick.  He's younger than Williams, sure, but the same issues exist.  He's a jag who looked good in a couple preseason games and in practice against guys who aren't good enough to start for the chiefs.  

People spending early firsts on him in rookie drafts are paying the absolute maximum for the hype.  It might pay off, and he could end up being better than a lot of the consensus early picks like when Jordan Howard was a better pick than the consensus top picks doctson, treadwell and Coleman at the top of another weak draft.  I won't argue with anyone getting their guy, i just think an honest assessment of the situation says that's a little too high.  

I personally prefer the term "JAG" to "Borderline starter".  While the later may be more descriptive, the former is just 3 letters and says the same thing to those who understand it.

That said, I think your assessment is excellent and makes a lot of sense.

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9 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Can we stop with the word jag?  

Veach said it best when they went out to get damien Williams last off season. They were looking for a backup rb and when they were reviewing Williams they said he's not a backup, he's a "borderline starter". 

That was before the 2018 season.  I think it's a good insight into how they see him.  A borderline starter. Not a stud.  Not an elite player at his position.  Not a career backup. Not a journeyman.   Not a role player.  It's a good term - a borderline starter. It means they could upgrade the position, but they don't necessarily have to.  

Since then, he played well when called upon, and if anything played better than they'd hoped or expected.  He's a better receiver than a runner, but they gave him 25 carries against the colts in the playoffs and trusted him to run it on 4th and 1 twice.  They extended his contract in December, almost immediately after seeing him carry the load the first time. It was not for huge money, but also without having seen him crush it in the playoffs.  

They didn't sign a top free agent, and they didn't spend a day one or day two draft pick on a running back. They called Williams the starter all through the offseason, they've treated him like the other starters, playing him sparingly and he excelled with that long touchdown reception.  

Thompson has also done well. You know what he looks like?  A borderline starter.  A guy who could take the keys to the Lamborghini if called upon, and do pretty well.  If something happens to Williams, he'd probably be a high end rb2 or low end rb1. He's probably going to get a handful of touches, and if he does real well he might even earn a 1b role.  But the 1a role doesn't seem to be up for grabs unless something happens to Williams.

That makes Thompson a very high upside backup for redraft - the kind you should take ahead of bad rb1s or even some rbbc "starters" who will outperform him early.  

For dynasty, the upside is a little higher - you're hoping he becomes the starter and stays the starter. But guess what will happen if he does?  You'll still have half of everybody talking about how he is a jag driving a Lamborghini, and you'll still be watching every draft with your hands over your eyes when the chiefs pick.  He's younger than Williams, sure, but the same issues exist.  He's a jag who looked good in a couple preseason games and in practice against guys who aren't good enough to start for the chiefs.  

People spending early firsts on him in rookie drafts are paying the absolute maximum for the hype.  It might pay off, and he could end up being better than a lot of the consensus early picks like when Jordan Howard was a better pick than the consensus top picks doctson, treadwell and Coleman at the top of another weak draft.  I won't argue with anyone getting their guy, i just think an honest assessment of the situation says that's a little too high.  

Don’t disagree with any of this. 

I was able to land him 16.05 in a PPR IDP, which is roughly the equivalent to a 12th rounder in non-IDP.  It was prior to peak hype & I felt the value was correct. Plus we have 28 man teams & as a guy who went WR/WR/WR a big part of my strategy is to stack up on lottery ticket RBs (May have already hit one with singletary) 

but that all said, I think there’s an added perception that DWill is injury prone. Like many, I tend to think injuries are random, and it’s an unfair label to slap on someone - but much of the hype I’ve seen on Thompson always seems to include mention of DWill’s inability to stay healthy. 

Whether it’s fair or not, it’s definitely driven up DWill’s price tag by a lot. 

I drafted him with 2 expectations:

1. He could have stand-alone flex value if Reed opts to incorporate him into the offense,

and

2. IF DWill misses time he’s a plug & play borderline RB1 merely because of the situation - e.g. stepping into a Lamborghini of an offense.  But that was the low % play, and it feels like people are banking on it as though it’s a lock. 

I think your assessment of him is fair - and those investing high picks in redraft will likely end up regretting it unless DWill goes down with an injury early.  You can’t draft the dude as a RB3/Flex. You can draft him as a RB5 who you hope might develop into a Flex play or better.

seems like we see the same thing happen every year. Value player get hyped up to the point that the draft equity required to pick them exceeds their upside value. 

Call it “Larry Johnson syndrome”. IIRC, the year Priest went down he was having a fine season. Just as beastly as ever. LJ, a ~6th round pick, wasn’t doing much at all. 

Around week 3 he started getting traded for peanuts.

then Priest went down, Johnson blew up & the rest, as they say, is history. 

And those LJ shareholders who didn’t dump/trade him felt like geniuses.

Every FF manager wants to be that guy. To get (cliche alert) “league-winning upside” out of a bench player/late pick. Hey, I do too. 

But when you start reaching for those dudes, it detracts from their value. Now they’re not bench players. Those LJ owners weren’t really geniuses for taking him in the 5/6 rounds, they were damn lucky. Had Priest not been injured, they could easily have had a league losing pick. 

Feels like that’s kinda how people are treating DThompson in redraft. What’s his ADP, 7th round? 8th? Woof. Gimme a stud QB or WR3 there or a RB3-4 who’ll be guaranteed touches instead. 

 

 

 

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On 8/30/2019 at 3:07 PM, Tanner9919 said:

Dwill just hasnt proven he can do it for a full season. if he was sooo good why'd Miami give up on him?  I dunno I don't think he's anything more than just a JAG. that long pass rec for TD last week has people looking at things with rosey colored glasses. he's nothing special.plays a murderer's row of run defenses, starts with Jags week one.. I just don't see him holding the gig all season long. when the Cheifs are one of the bottom 10 teams in rushing thru first 5 weeks, they're going to switch gears. DT is going to get some action. 

you can use all the 2018 numbers you want, but their schedule is brutal to begin with, and absolutely toxic last 8 weeks. DT will get his #'s but in the end, I don't think either will be nearly as effective as 2018 or cheifs 2017 rushing  numbers.

They are projected to win the second most games in the league by Vegas so your evaluation of schedule strength doesn't make much sense.  

And they play Oakland in week 2.  He might have 200 yfs that week 🤣

 

 

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On 8/26/2019 at 2:23 PM, Warhogs said:

KC seems similar to Pittsburgh to me in that any RB that starts puts up great numbers. Leveon Bell for several years but DeAngelo Williams in a fill in and James Conner last year.

Yep, Jaylen Samuels also did pretty well.  Plug in basically any RB in an elite offensive system and they will translate to fantasy gold.  

 

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As a DThompson owner I’m disappointed. 

As a guy who missed DWill in my leagues, I’m relieved.

Should be a mess in KC if McCoy gets significant playing time. Good for the Chiefs - bad for people who drafted DWill. Potentially a jackpot for McCoy owners. What a destination. :o 

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22 minutes ago, Mozeta said:

McCoy didn't go to a team to sit and they didn't pay him twice as much as the other guy to sit either.  McCoy is the #1.  this bumps Thompson down to being almost undraftable in some smaller bench leagues.  

I dunno about that. DWill earned his job. He’s done nothing to lose it. I could see RBBC, but I have a hard time believing Reid would do that. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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1 minute ago, bumpman said:

Perhaps, but timing matters.  He signed his deal just now, which means it reflects KC's current view of his value.

Or they figured they’d better beat the Pats, Eagles & Chargers to the punch. 

I don’t see anything DWill has done to lose his job, and it may be as simple as that was what the chiefs offered to bring in a coach's favorite & McCoy wanted to play there. 

At face value that seems to be what happened. 

We’ll know soon enough - season starts in ~5 days. :shrug:

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As difficult as the news is, I’d be in a holding pattern. As Mike Tyson says “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face”. 

I’m not dropping him until I see what happens when McCoy gets on the field. Andy Reid ain’t gonna drop the chance of a Super Bowl for McCoy.

 

who gets punched in the face, me or Reid?

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26 minutes ago, pbandy1 said:

3 million GTD - 1.5 more than they gave to Hyde. Obviously the situation is a mess, but I don't think he just becomes 'the guy'.

Guaranteed money is irrelevant for the player, it only matters for the team.  Veteran salaries are fully guaranteed week 1. 

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53 minutes ago, CKoz24 said:

This has the smell of Adrian Peterson in New Orleans. Performance, not the trade

I can see the reasoning behind the comp, but AP had never played for Sean Payton and had Alvin Kamara breathing on him.

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31 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Id say yes

I’d hold to see how this plays out for a few weeks. That’s what imma do anyway. 

DWill (fragile) or McCoy (31) could get banged up. 

I don’t see Thompson’s path to FF-relevant PT being that difficult. 

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Andy Reid finally realizes his lifelong dream of having not three but FOUR usable RBs he can roll out in random intervals and take turns forgetting the existence of for entire quarters.

If my drafts weren’t all done I’d start avoiding this backfield completely.

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I’m holding my one share for sure and taking a wait and see approach, like HotSauce said. I didn’t draft him thinking he’d be utilized out the gate anyways. He was always a wait and see candidate. Of course it was wrapped up in more hope prior to the McCoy signing, but a wait and see nonetheless. This does make his path to relevance little more difficult but I’ll give it 6-8 weeks and reevaluate at that point.

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18 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’d hold to see how this plays out for a few weeks. That’s what imma do anyway. 

DWill (fragile) or McCoy (31) could get banged up. 

I don’t see Thompson’s path to FF-relevant PT being that difficult. 

It's hard to roster 3rd string running backs. I already dropped him. 

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26 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’d hold to see how this plays out for a few weeks. That’s what imma do anyway. 

DWill (fragile) or McCoy (31) could get banged up. 

I don’t see Thompson’s path to FF-relevant PT being that difficult. 

This. No shot I’m dropping him, when you consider he’s playing behind a 32 year old back in the twilight of his career, and a career backup (despite his success last year). 

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6 hours ago, LawFitz said:

I can see the reasoning behind the comp, but AP had never played for Sean Payton and had Alvin Kamara breathing on him.

I get the McCoy/Reid connection, but you can argue the Kamara breathing on him with D.Thompson as well. Very few people knew Kamara’s name until like week 2 or 3 and I’m a Saints fan.

I was at the Vikings/Saints game in week 1 and none of the RBs looked good.

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This sixth round RBs value has surely been a roller coaster ride this offseason. In May rookie drafts he was going mid-third to early fourth, last week people were taking about taking him at 1.04. Redraft value was similar.

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24 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

The denial is entertaining

What denial? 

Advising people to hold on dropping Thompson isn’t denial. It’s resistance to knee-jerk roster moves. 

I find it somewhat remarkable that the same dude who advised picking up Dare on a terrible TB team while Ellington, Barber & RoJo were all still there is somehow also against rostering a seemingly more talented Thompson who plays for the best offense in football with just 2 backs ahead of him, one who’s old & one who can’t stay healthy. 

43 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

It's hard to roster 3rd string running backs. I already dropped him. 

Small bench, I get it. 

The one league I have a Thompson share is a 28 man roster (IDP) so I’ve got room/time.

He’s still a lottery ticket - which is exactly why I drafted him. Context matters. DWill goes down, Thompson is immediately flex-worthy. 

McCoy fails to perform, pre-signing value is restored to both. 

Reid may love McCoy, but he’s not going to hurt his offense running him out there if he’s not effective. 

Wait & see by a week or 3 isn’t gonna hurt anyone. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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7 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

If you wanted to make a disingenuous argument, sure. 

How is that disingenuous? I’m being sincere with that comment. Huge Saints fan, didn’t know who Kamara was, had two veterans ahead of him.  Won people championships.

its all hypothetical until we get a few weeks in. 

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Dynasty wise I think patience could still pay off. I kind of felt he would need an injury to Williams to really produce anyway. But now he would need several dominoes to fall, and the tough thing in dynasty is having enough conviction on his talent to hold a roster spot (I plan to). This whole backfield may be difficult to capitalize on for this year.

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13 minutes ago, CKoz24 said:

How is that disingenuous? I’m being sincere with that comment. Huge Saints fan, didn’t know who Kamara was, had two veterans ahead of him.  Won people championships.

its all hypothetical until we get a few weeks in. 

Kamara was an early third round pick. Thompson a late sixth. Maybe you didn’t know who Kamara was but he was going between pick 1.06-1.10 in early rookie drafts while Thompson was going in the late third, early fourth. 

Plus with the hindsight of how good Kamara has been it is unrealistic to compare Thompson to him - obviously it’s not impossible but it’s improbable.

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