Hankmoody
Footballguy
No you won't. If his situation is bad the window to get a haul closes. You're only getting a haul if they commit resources to the position or Rudolph makes huge strides, in which case the situation no longer stinks.
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WR Diontae Johnson, CAR (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Milkman
Footballguy
If he has two top 10 seasons and Ben leaves you'll have no problem trading Antonio Brown ooops I mean Diontae Johnson for a haul.
Faust
MVP
Could Steelers Diontae Johnson become a number one receiver in the NFL? (FanSided article with autoplay video)
Milkman
Footballguy
Coming off a promising rookie year you’d expect some natural progression and now you add in the fact that he gets a major Qb upgrade in terms of both quality and quantity of targets. And strength was a noted weakness of his in a lot of evaluations, he’s had a full offseason to put on a few lbs. I don’t see how he’s not pushing for 75-80 catches 900-1000 yards. Like I’d probably see him at 70/850 if he had the same awful Qb play just factoring in some added strength and familiarity with the turd qbs. Ben has to add something significant to that.
Milkman
Footballguy
He's going over 1000 this year barring injury. 85-1100-8 and he'll be everybody's fav.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I was pretty high on Diontae well before I ever saw he was top WR in target separation. It's actually pretty easy to see when you watch him, he kind of jumps out at you.
Did not need this nugget of info I came across yesterday either to know what I was watching but it's pretty impressive nonetheless. I don't follow fantasy writers but an NFL reporter I follow, who was super high on Diontae Johnson last year tweeted out some information provided by a Scott Barrett. Basically this Barret guy is stating that per PFF Diontae Johnson was charted as being open 84% of the time, second in the NFL among non-majority slot WR's to some guy named Michael Thomas but 44% of his targets were deemed inaccurate which was 78th out of 82 qualifiers.
I don't really spend a lot of time getting caught up in the JuJu or him as the #1 WR debate. It's just not necessary to me. I like them both and good QB play should improve both of them drastically but without a doubt Diontae is considerably better value and it's not even close(and JuJu's a pretty decent value play himself)
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Less likely to get Covid though at the target point which is being underrated here. In all seriousness, shouldn’t that graph be showing fantasy points during year N+1 not the current year?
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I get what you're saying, but when not even correlated to fantasy points in the current year, I would think you would find the same in year n+1. It's just the worthlessness of the stat, which measures something about when the QB throws to said receiver.
And yes, covid19 transmissions per target, I would expect D Johnson to lead in this category next year.
Maybe. And there’s definitely a ton of noise in the stat. I cited it without really diving into what it means. I brought up N+1 because if the stat has any correlation to a players ability they would receive extra targets/defensive attention and you’d expect efficiency stats to go down (holding steady all kinds of other variables like Qb play, defense faced, weather, what read they are, slot or wide, OL play, etc which is impossible). That could correct week to week but likely more so season to season. Extra targets and attention probably results in more fantasy points but less target separation in that season.
More simply hypothesized: if more separation = good player, good player = increased role, increased role = more targets/attention/less efficiency which is good for fantasy but would result in less future target separation.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Seperation is good, but the per target part introduces bias, makes it a non random sample. A better stat would be seperation per pass play.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah but even then you’d have to account for a large chunk of plays where the receiver may be clearing out for something underneath or setting a soft pick or the offensive line gave extra time to get separation or the play is a quick bubble screen to the left so the wr on the right isn’t expected to have the time to run a complete route. Good news is all the variables allows good old watching the player himself still have a huge role in the process.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
So what would you pay for him in dynasty (in picks or comparable valued receiver)?
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I drafted him everywhere I could last year (usually mid to late 2nd) and I wouldn't consider moving him for anything less than a top 5 rookie pick, and honestly wouldn't feel overly motivated to do that unless I had a need at RB. The only place I moved him was in a league where I gave up Diontae and Hollywood Brown for JuJu (who I then parlayed along with Gallup for MT) He's a hold or buy for sure IMO.
Milkman
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Trying to turn Cooper Kupp into him plus some but having trouble finding a combination. I like Johnson and am bummed because I had to drop him due to shorter rosters and a bye week last year this owner scooped him up.
Milkman
Footballguy
I traded Johnson around week 6 I think last year in a deal that netted me Julio and it's one of the two really horrible trades I made last year because I gave up a lot more then Diontae. Been trying to get him back since and just can't do it. You ever been in a situation were every time you have a trade discussion with someone they always want the same player from you and your reluctance to deal that player kills all talks? That's what happened with my efforts to get Diontae back, the other owner always wanted Hunt and that always kills the talks.
So I was surprised about a month ago, since I had failed a few attempts at getting Johnson back and was mainly offering what I thought was pretty qualify stuff like Ty Hilton and a mid round pick to see him dealt for just Chase Edmonds and a third. I was surprised but happy I had a new trade partner to work with on getting him back but he just ended up on the roster of a fellow Diontae truther and my window was now shut.
When this offseason started I listed Diontae Johnson as my #1 guy to go after in trades. Had him on just one league at this point, and did acquire him on 3 more teams. But I'm still bummed and po'ed at myself for letting go of him in this league and my inability to get him back.
dipandglide
Footballguy
I am not buying. Last year was a throw away year for Pitt. No Ben, JuJu and Conner. Maybe he’s cheap enough (was) to return value. Way too much hype for anyone to get on board that wasn’t already there at this point. Gl
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm buying and tried to buy him from a Pittsburgh homer. Another truther, as it were. Best of luck. GLLL peas.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Thanks for the feedback. Your offer seems much better than what they settled for. I don’t want to start obsessing and overpay but I feel I am headed that way.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
My belief is to never "have to have a certain player". It doesn't help you in trading if the other owner knows this about you. I like my fellow owners to know I can walk away without overpaying. I compare it to buying a new car. The salesman smells blood when he knows you want the car badly. However, in FF it's OK to overpay in certain situations. Example, you have the capital to overpay and it won't hurt your team too much if you trade for a player you really want. But you have to be OK with just walking away from any deal and not get upset over it.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
You changed your photo. Not sure I can handle this type of alteration in my life right now. What are you offering for Diontae?
rockaction
Footballguy
It was a while back. It would have been Jones and Guice (see other thread) for Chark, Johnson, and Mostert, but he declined.
Agree completely on setting a price and I use car buying analogy myself.
I would only add that listing Diontae as my #1 guy to acquire in trades should not be confused with "have to have him". The whole point of of getting a guy like Diontae before he potentially breaks out is to get a good deal, that's why he was my top trade acquisition target. But if I'm paying post-breakout prices for a pre-breakout player I see no point. I never have a player I have to have, don't understand the concept of trade block or untouchable player to be honest because all my players are always available for the right cost, and I have no loyalty to any player on my team for what they've done for me in years past.
Milkman
Footballguy
He's trading at low end WR3 values right now. As soon as I ask someone that owns him "What do you want for Diontae Johnson?" The value shoots up to WR2 values.
I'll overpay for some players but given the current WR landscape Diontae Johnson would not be one of them.
I'll overpay for some players but given the current WR landscape Diontae Johnson would not be one of them.
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Faust
MVP
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
Wow! He is being traded as a low end wr3? I definitely value him as at least a mid-wr2. I guess that makes me a truther?Milkman said:
His May ADP at Mizelle is 88 overall, WR47.
But good luck trying to trade for him at all, his going rate is somewhere near McLaurin, near 50 overall and WR27
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
Without a doubt that info confirms me as a truther. I rate Dionte higher than McLaurin who I would rate somewhere between an upper wr3 to lower wr2.
Milkman
Footballguy
https://twitter.com/bepryor/status/1265711208415539201?s=20
Man this story just keeps getting better and better. He had that kind of injury, terrible QB play, and still put up that kind of year?
Man this story just keeps getting better and better. He had that kind of injury, terrible QB play, and still put up that kind of year?
Might even be a little better then he makes it sound, that groin might have been bothering him as far back as about a week into camp when he missed I believe about 2 weeks with what was called a groin injury.
I was surprised that tweet said he worked out with Roethlisberger since I did not see him with the group that worked out with him on the video that came out last week.
Milkman
Footballguy
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I honestly viewed him as a career WR3, but it's interesting seeing the stats about separation. Makes me realize I need to rethink things. I am also cautious about PFF stuff.
For all the truthers I wonder if the age gives you pause? He is actually older than Juju. If he was only 21 his numbers last year would be more impressive.
For all the truthers I wonder if the age gives you pause? He is actually older than Juju. If he was only 21 his numbers last year would be more impressive.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Go find the video of the WR coach who GUSHED, I mean, GUSHED about him after they drafted him last year. Its why I drafted him EVERYWHERE. Same guy that scouted AB before he was anyone thought this kid might be the best route runner he'd EVER studied. I was sold before I saw him play a snap.
Steeler
Footballguy
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Aznflyer14
Footballguy
Breezy H2O
Footballguy
Stud.
