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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Diontae Johnson, Steelers


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On 5/6/2020 at 7:34 AM, Milkman said:

Don't disagree with this post that's a situation to monitor but It's hard to look much past two years and Diontae started to warm up last year without Ben. Diontae is going to pop this year and next. If I don't like his situation when Ben is gone I can trade him for a haul 2022

 

 

No you won't.  If his situation is bad the window to get a haul closes.  You're only getting a haul if they commit resources to the position or Rudolph makes huge strides, in which case the situation no longer stinks.

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Exactly. Except Enron was a disaster for the whole country, Ebron just one in Detroit. 

And then what on 2nd and goal?

Near zero chance he plays this week. He's just not tough enough. 

19 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

No you won't.  If his situation is bad the window to get a haul closes.  You're only getting a haul if they commit resources to the position or Rudolph makes huge strides, in which case the situation no longer stinks.

If he has two top 10 seasons and Ben leaves you'll have no problem trading Antonio Brown ooops I mean Diontae Johnson for a haul. 

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Diontae Johnson Fantasy Football Outlook (2020)

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He could be one of the biggest steals in fantasy football, period. Despite being thrown to by Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph, Johnson was able to post WR2 or better numbers in 31.3 percent of his games as a rookie in 2019. Now getting Ben Roethlisberger back under center, he might just explode. Don't forget that there were room for two top-tier receivers with Roethlisberger under center.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
8 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Shhhhhh most think he's WR38 or something crazy like that......

Coming off a promising rookie year you’d expect some natural progression and now you add in the fact that he gets a major Qb upgrade in terms of both quality and quantity of targets. And strength was a noted weakness of his in a lot of evaluations, he’s had a full offseason to put on a few lbs. I don’t see how he’s not pushing for 75-80 catches 900-1000 yards. Like I’d probably see him at 70/850 if he had the same awful Qb play just factoring in some added strength and familiarity with the turd qbs. Ben has to add something significant to that.

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29 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

Coming off a promising rookie year you’d expect some natural progression and now you add in the fact that he gets a major Qb upgrade in terms of both quality and quantity of targets. And strength was a noted weakness of his in a lot of evaluations, he’s had a full offseason to put on a few lbs. I don’t see how he’s not pushing for 75-80 catches 900-1000 yards. Like I’d probably see him at 70/850 if he had the same awful Qb play just factoring in some added strength and familiarity with the turd qbs. Ben has to add something significant to that.

He's going over 1000 this year barring injury. 85-1100-8 and he'll be everybody's fav. 

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On 5/19/2020 at 9:55 PM, Cobbler1 said:

Guess who had the number 1 target separation on player profiler...

I was pretty high on Diontae well before I ever saw he was top WR in target separation. It's actually pretty easy to see when you watch him, he kind of jumps out at you.

Did not need this nugget of info I came across yesterday either to know what I was watching but it's pretty impressive nonetheless. I don't follow fantasy writers but an NFL reporter  I follow, who was super high on Diontae Johnson last year tweeted out some information provided by a Scott Barrett. Basically this Barret guy is stating  that per PFF Diontae Johnson was charted as being open 84% of the time, second in the NFL among non-majority slot WR's to some guy named Michael Thomas but 44% of his targets were deemed inaccurate which was 78th out of 82 qualifiers.

I don't really spend a lot of time getting caught up in the JuJu or him as the #1 WR debate. It's just not necessary to me. I like them both and good QB play should improve both of them drastically but without a doubt Diontae is considerably better value and it's not even close(and JuJu's a pretty decent value play himself)

 

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21 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

Less likely to get Covid though at the target point which is being underrated here. In all seriousness, shouldn’t that graph be showing fantasy points during year N+1 not the current year?

I get what you're saying, but when not even correlated to fantasy points in the current year, I would think you would find the same in year n+1. It's just the worthlessness of the stat, which measures something about when the QB throws to said receiver.

And yes, covid19 transmissions per target, I would expect D Johnson to lead in this category next year. 

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54 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I get what you're saying, but when not even correlated to fantasy points in the current year, I would think you would find the same in year n+1. It's just the worthlessness of the stat, which measures something about when the QB throws to said receiver.

And yes, covid19 transmissions per target, I would expect D Johnson to lead in this category next year. 

Maybe. And there’s definitely a ton of noise in the stat. I cited it without really diving into what it means. I brought up N+1 because if the stat has any correlation to a players ability they would receive extra targets/defensive attention and you’d expect efficiency stats to go down (holding steady all kinds of other variables like Qb play, defense faced, weather, what read they are, slot or wide, OL play, etc which is impossible). That could correct week to week but likely more so season to season. Extra targets and attention probably results in more fantasy points but less target separation in that season.

 

More simply hypothesized: if more separation = good player, good player = increased role, increased role = more targets/attention/less efficiency which is good for fantasy but would result in less future target separation. 

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13 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

More simply hypothesized: if more separation = good player, good player = increased role, increased role = more targets/attention/less efficiency which is good for fantasy but would result in less future target separation. 

Seperation is good, but the per target part introduces bias, makes it a non random sample. A better stat would be seperation per pass play. 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I was pretty high on Diontae well before I ever saw he was top WR in target separation. It's actually pretty easy to see when you watch him, he kind of jumps out at you.

Did not need this nugget of info I came across yesterday either to know what I was watching but it's pretty impressive nonetheless. I don't follow fantasy writers but an NFL reporter  I follow, who was super high on Diontae Johnson last year tweeted out some information provided by a Scott Barrett. Basically this Barret guy is stating  that per PFF Diontae Johnson was charted as being open 84% of the time, second in the NFL among non-majority slot WR's to some guy named Michael Thomas but 44% of his targets were deemed inaccurate which was 78th out of 82 qualifiers.

I don't really spend a lot of time getting caught up in the JuJu or him as the #1 WR debate. It's just not necessary to me. I like them both and good QB play should improve both of them drastically but without a doubt Diontae is considerably better value and it's not even close(and JuJu's a pretty decent value play himself)

 

Sounds like numbers another elite WR put in Pittsburgh a couple years ago.......

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11 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Seperation is good, but the per target part introduces bias, makes it a non random sample. A better stat would be seperation per pass play. 

Yeah but even then you’d have to account for a large chunk of plays where the receiver may be clearing out for something underneath or setting a soft pick or the offensive line gave extra time to get separation or the play is a quick bubble screen to the left so the wr on the right isn’t expected to have the time to run a complete route. Good news is all the variables allows good old watching the player himself still have a huge role in the process.

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16 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

So what would you pay for him in dynasty (in picks or comparable valued receiver)?

I drafted him everywhere I could last year (usually mid to late 2nd) and I wouldn't consider moving him for anything less than a top 5 rookie pick, and honestly wouldn't feel overly motivated to do that unless I had a need at RB. The only place I moved him was in a league where I gave up Diontae and Hollywood Brown for JuJu (who I then parlayed along with Gallup for MT) He's a hold or buy for sure IMO. 

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2 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

So what would you pay for him in dynasty (in picks or comparable valued receiver)?

Get him as a throw in on a bigger deal. Don't ask for him directly. 

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23 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Get him as a throw in on a bigger deal. Don't ask for him directly. 

Trying to turn Cooper Kupp into him plus some but having trouble finding a combination. I like Johnson and am bummed because I had to drop him due to shorter rosters and a bye week last year this owner scooped him up.

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1 hour ago, King of the Jungle said:

Trying to turn Cooper Kupp into him plus some but having trouble finding a combination. I like Johnson and am bummed because I had to drop him due to shorter rosters and a bye week last year this owner scooped him up.

I hate when I do that. Lol

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1 hour ago, King of the Jungle said:

I like Johnson and am bummed because I had to drop him due to shorter rosters and a bye week last year this owner scooped him up.

I traded Johnson around week 6 I think last year in a deal that netted me Julio and it's one of the two really horrible trades I made last year because I gave up a lot more then Diontae. Been trying to get him back since and just can't do it. You ever been in a situation were every time you have a trade discussion with someone they always want the same player from you and your reluctance to deal that player kills all talks? That's what happened with my efforts to get Diontae back, the other owner always wanted Hunt and that always kills the talks.

So I was surprised about a month ago, since I had failed a few attempts at getting Johnson back and was mainly offering what I thought was pretty qualify stuff like Ty Hilton and a mid round pick to see him dealt for just Chase Edmonds and a third. I was surprised but happy I had a new trade partner to work with on getting him back but he just ended up on the roster of a fellow Diontae truther and my window was now shut.

When this offseason started I listed Diontae Johnson as my #1 guy to go after in trades. Had him on just one league at this point, and did acquire him on 3 more teams. But I'm still bummed and po'ed at myself for letting go of him in this league and my inability to get him back.

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I am not buying. Last year was a throw away year for Pitt. No Ben, JuJu and Conner. Maybe he’s cheap enough (was) to return value. Way too much hype for anyone to get on board that wasn’t already there at this point. Gl

 

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17 hours ago, menobrown said:

I traded Johnson around week 6 I think last year in a deal that netted me Julio and it's one of the two really horrible trades I made last year because I gave up a lot more then Diontae. Been trying to get him back since and just can't do it. You ever been in a situation were every time you have a trade discussion with someone they always want the same player from you and your reluctance to deal that player kills all talks? That's what happened with my efforts to get Diontae back, the other owner always wanted Hunt and that always kills the talks.

So I was surprised about a month ago, since I had failed a few attempts at getting Johnson back and was mainly offering what I thought was pretty qualify stuff like Ty Hilton and a mid round pick to see him dealt for just Chase Edmonds and a third. I was surprised but happy I had a new trade partner to work with on getting him back but he just ended up on the roster of a fellow Diontae truther and my window was now shut.

When this offseason started I listed Diontae Johnson as my #1 guy to go after in trades. Had him on just one league at this point, and did acquire him on 3 more teams. But I'm still bummed and po'ed at myself for letting go of him in this league and my inability to get him back.

Thanks for the feedback. Your offer seems much better than what they settled for. I don’t want to start obsessing and overpay but I feel I am headed that way.

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17 hours ago, menobrown said:

I traded Johnson around week 6 I think last year in a deal that netted me Julio and it's one of the two really horrible trades I made last year because I gave up a lot more then Diontae. Been trying to get him back since and just can't do it. You ever been in a situation were every time you have a trade discussion with someone they always want the same player from you and your reluctance to deal that player kills all talks? That's what happened with my efforts to get Diontae back, the other owner always wanted Hunt and that always kills the talks.

So I was surprised about a month ago, since I had failed a few attempts at getting Johnson back and was mainly offering what I thought was pretty qualify stuff like Ty Hilton and a mid round pick to see him dealt for just Chase Edmonds and a third. I was surprised but happy I had a new trade partner to work with on getting him back but he just ended up on the roster of a fellow Diontae truther and my window was now shut.

When this offseason started I listed Diontae Johnson as my #1 guy to go after in trades. Had him on just one league at this point, and did acquire him on 3 more teams. But I'm still bummed and po'ed at myself for letting go of him in this league and my inability to get him back.

My belief is to never "have to have a certain player".  It doesn't help you in trading if the other owner knows this about you.  I like my fellow owners to know I can walk away without overpaying.   I compare it to buying a new car.  The salesman smells blood when he knows you want the car badly.  However, in FF it's OK to overpay in certain situations.  Example, you have the capital to overpay and it won't hurt your team too much if you trade for a player you really want.  But you have to be OK with just walking away from any deal and not get upset over it.

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25 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

You changed your photo. Not sure I can handle this type of alteration in my life right now. What are you offering for Diontae?

It was a while back. It would have been Jones and Guice (see other thread) for Chark, Johnson, and Mostert, but he declined.

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3 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

My belief is to never "have to have a certain player".  It doesn't help you in trading if the other owner knows this about you.  I like my fellow owners to know I can walk away without overpaying.   I compare it to buying a new car.  The salesman smells blood when he knows you want the car badly.  However, in FF it's OK to overpay in certain situations.  Example, you have the capital to overpay and it won't hurt your team too much if you trade for a player you really want.  But you have to be OK with just walking away from any deal and not get upset over it.

Agree completely on setting a price and I use car buying analogy myself. 

I would only add that listing Diontae as my #1 guy to acquire in trades should not be confused with "have to have him". The whole point of of getting a guy like Diontae before he potentially breaks out is to get a good deal, that's why he was my top trade acquisition target.  But if  I'm paying post-breakout prices for a pre-breakout player I see no point.  I never have a player I have to have, don't understand the concept of trade block or untouchable player  to be honest because all my players are always available for the right cost,  and I have no loyalty to any player on my team for what they've done for me in years past.

 

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He's trading at low end WR3 values right now. As soon as I ask someone that owns him "What do you want for Diontae Johnson?" The value shoots up to WR2 values. 

 

I'll overpay for some players but given the current WR landscape Diontae Johnson would not be one of them. 

 

 

Edited by Milkman
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SECOND-YEAR WRS POISED TO BREAKOUT IN 2020

Excerpt:

Quote

DIONTAE JOHNSON, PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Diontae Johnson saw nearly 100 targets in his first season of action and was able to rope in 59 catches for 680 yards. He did not top more than 85 receiving yards in a single game, but remember who was throwing him the ball.

After Ben Roethlisberger went down with a season-ending elbow injury in Week 2, Johnson was relying on Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges to get him the ball. As you would expect, it wasn't as smooth as the veteran Roethlisberger would have been. However, according to Pro Football Focus, Johnson caught 91% of catchable passes thrown his way, and his 88.1% true catch rate ranked 10th among receivers.

Even with the Steelers drafting Chase Claypool in the second round of the 2020 draft, Johnson should still be on the up with Roethlisberger back in action.

 

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On 5/24/2020 at 2:12 PM, Milkman said:

He's trading at low end WR3 values right now. As soon as I ask someone that owns him "What do you want for Diontae Johnson?" The value shoots up to WR2 values. 

 

I'll overpay for some players but given the current WR landscape Diontae Johnson would not be one of them. 

 

 

Wow!  He is being traded as a low end wr3?  I definitely value him as at least a mid-wr2.  I guess that makes me a truther?

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13 minutes ago, Phantom Knight said:

Wow!  He is being traded as a low end wr3?  I definitely value him as at least a mid-wr2.  I guess that makes me a truther?

His May ADP at Mizelle is 88 overall, WR47. 
But good luck trying to trade for him at all, his going rate is somewhere near McLaurin, near 50 overall and WR27

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1 hour ago, Phantom Knight said:

Wow!  He is being traded as a low end wr3?  I definitely value him as at least a mid-wr2.  I guess that makes me a truther?

 

1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

His May ADP at Mizelle is 88 overall, WR47. 
But good luck trying to trade for him at all, his going rate is somewhere near McLaurin, near 50 overall and WR27

Without a doubt that info confirms me as a truther.  I rate Dionte higher than McLaurin who I would rate somewhere between an upper wr3 to lower wr2.

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https://twitter.com/bepryor/status/1265711208415539201?s=20

Steelers WR Diontae Johnson told reporters Wednesday he sustained a groin injury Week 2 and had surgery for the sports hernia in the offseason. He hasn't received full clearance to return to training yet, but he's hopeful he'll get it "in the next couple days." "I was running and it felt like my groin got a little tight on me,” Johnson said, describing the injury. The second-year player has spent time working out with Ben Roethlisberger and is focused on building a connection with him.

 

Man this story just keeps getting better and better. He had that kind of injury, terrible QB play, and still put up that kind of year?

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42 minutes ago, Milkman said:

 

Man this story just keeps getting better and better. He had that kind of injury, terrible QB play, and still put up that kind of year?

Might even be a little better then he makes it sound, that groin might have been bothering him as far back as about a week into camp when he missed I believe about 2 weeks with what was called a groin injury.

I was surprised that tweet said he worked out with Roethlisberger since I did not see him with the group that worked out with him on the video that came out last week.

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6 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Might even be a little better then he makes it sound, that groin might have been bothering him as far back as about a week into camp when he missed I believe about 2 weeks with what was called a groin injury.

I was surprised that tweet said he worked out with Roethlisberger since I did not see him with the group that worked out with him on the video that came out last week.

Yeah I didn't see him in that video either. 

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Quote

Evan Silva @evansilva

#Steelers WR Diontae Johnson is generating warranted 2020 #fantasyfootball hype after a dynamic rookie year.

Here's a thread from @PFF_AustinGayle that pinpointed Johnson's strengths coming out of Toledo:

https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/1265841985350500358?s=21

 

Quote

Austin Gayle @PFF_AustinGayle

Toledo's Diontae Johnson (@Juiceup__3) is a creative route-runner with quick, efficient feet. He's one of the better separators at the short and intermediate level in this class.

Dude just always gets open.

https://twitter.com/pff_austingayle/status/1114919962647379968?s=21

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Four wide receivers who could be this year's Chris Godwin

Excerpt:

Quote

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers second-year wideout is one of the most exciting young route-runners to watch at the position. Diontae Johnson showed flashes of brilliance as a separator in his first season. Even as his quarterbacks left a bevy of yards on the field, Johnson routinely got open no matter who covered him. Everything about his film is pristine.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is the odds-on favorite to lead the Steelers in targets and fantasy points this year. However, you cannot run a healthy passing offense through an interior receiver without an outside threat emerging to win at all levels and dictate coverages. Johnson can be that player and if he is, the gap between their stats at the end of the year will not be as wide as the ADP is today. 

Unlike the two players proceeding him on this list, Johnson has more players to contend with beyond just the team’s top receiver. The Falcons and Seahawks don’t have a receiver of James Washington’s ability on their roster. Washington’s presence will no doubt shave off targets from a possible ceiling for Johnson. 

Everything here hinges on Ben Roethlisberger’s health. If he doesn’t return to something even close to peak form, far too many scenarios exist where the offense isn’t good enough to support two fantasy-relevant wideouts. That risk must be taken into account when pegging Johnson a breakout receiver. 

Confidence meter: Medium-high

 

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I honestly viewed him as a career WR3, but it's interesting seeing the stats about separation. Makes me realize I need to rethink things.  I am also cautious about PFF stuff.  

For all the truthers I wonder if the age gives you pause?  He is actually older than Juju. If he was only 21 his numbers last year would be more impressive. 

 

 

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Go find the video of the WR coach who GUSHED, I mean, GUSHED about him after they drafted him last year. Its why I drafted him EVERYWHERE. Same guy that scouted AB before he was anyone thought this kid might be the best route runner he'd EVER studied. I was sold before I saw him play a snap. 

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8 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Go find the video of the WR coach who GUSHED, I mean, GUSHED about him after they drafted him last year. Its why I drafted him EVERYWHERE. Same guy that scouted AB before he was anyone thought this kid might be the best route runner he'd EVER studied. I was sold before I saw him play a snap. 

Here it is: https://www.steelers.com/video/drake-on-johnson

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

 

Will Ben Roethlisberger's return transform this team back into a fantasy juggernaut?

Excerpt:

Quote

Diontae Johnson is everyone’s favorite breakout candidate this year, but does he really represent the best draft value among the Steelers wide receivers (JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington, Chase Claypool)?

Matt: Please ignore what Andy Behrens says about me in the next paragraph. I do not wield that kind of power. However, he is right: Diontae Johnson was one of my personal biggest risers after charting him for Reception Perception. Johnson posted a 75 percent success rate vs. man coverage, scoring at the 88th percentile. That is an excellent signal that a breakout could be coming for Johnson. Now, even if the skill is there, the profile for fantasy has some risks. Obviously there is Ben’s health and the competition for targets is real. JuJu Smith-Schuster will likely lead the team in looks and James Washington is quite good in his own right. In fact, if Johnson continues to climb up fantasy boards, you could argue the vertically skilled Washington is the superior draft value going outside the first 10 rounds.

Andy: First of all, let’s make sure that everyone understands Matt Harmon deserves the blame for Diontae’s rising ADP. You truly hate to see it.

Still, Johnson is going 90 picks later than Smith-Schuster in an average Yahoo draft; he represents the far better value in our game. Johnson was a revelation last season, despite his team’s mostly miserable quarterback situation. He closed the season by gaining 273 scrimmage yards and making three house calls over his final four games. If Big Ben can simply remain healthy, keeping Pittsburgh’s offense among the league’s best, Johnson won’t need 120-plus targets in order to make a huge fantasy splash in 2020.

Scott: Here’s one argument for drafting early (I like a post-NFL draft fantasy draft, myself), before door-busting opportunities dry up. Johnson’s become a fantasy darling and the value is almost completely sucked out of his ADP; it’s so difficult to make a birdie on a hipster pick because the buzz is priced into the purchase. Okay, Chris Godwin happened last year, though Godwin had a much longer resume entering 2019 than 2020 Johnson does (Godwin’s draft cost was also a tier more expensive). The best best-ball value is probably Washington because you get him for peanuts. Oddly, I see JuJu’s arc being somewhat forgotten in this passing game; his 2020 ADP might look laughably cheap in retrospect.

(Full disclosure, I took Johnson in the sixth round of my most recent Best Ball draft. Hey, but he’s my WR4!)

#FantasyHotTaek

Matt: Diontae Johnson leads the Steelers in yards and touchdowns. Despite my word of caution (you could say moderate hedging), I’m quite bullish on Johnson’s talent. He looks like the league’s next great route runner, and as I mentioned earlier, players that profile like him in Reception Perception rarely fail. Smith-Schuster is still a key player for the Steelers but the team hasn’t moved on a big-money extension for this player yet and that might be a signal. You just can’t run a healthy offense through a player who needs to line up inside to get open. A true No. 1 receiver wins at all levels of the field and separates vs. press/man coverage. Johnson is that player. If Roethlisberger is healthy and near 85 to 90 percent of his old form, Johnson could be a Stefon Diggs-type player in real life and fantasy.

 

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