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Stock Market under Trump (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sinn Fein
- Start date
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
And just like that, the market is in the red. Care to update your analysis?
Do you see how silly this is?
msommer
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Why would I want that to happen? You may be the biggest troll on here.....keep your fingers crossed, good luck!
I am not sure what is more surprising to me this morning - the 6.6 million new unemployment claims, or that "experts" were expecting only 3.1 new claims.
It seems as though the "experts" are living under rocks - and not paying attention to the world around them. 6.6 is obviously a huge number, and it might have been a stretch to predict that level - but with increased stay at home orders, and widespread reports of people having difficulties getting through to file unemployment - the number had to be bigger than the 3.3 from the previous week.
Experts tend to be very slow to adapt to changing circumstances - things their models could not have anticipated.
It seems as though the "experts" are living under rocks - and not paying attention to the world around them. 6.6 is obviously a huge number, and it might have been a stretch to predict that level - but with increased stay at home orders, and widespread reports of people having difficulties getting through to file unemployment - the number had to be bigger than the 3.3 from the previous week.
Experts tend to be very slow to adapt to changing circumstances - things their models could not have anticipated.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Foolish and massive bailouts despite them flying foreign flags to avoid taxes in the US.
GROOT
Footballguy
cruises and airlines i think are going to take a decade to come back to normal...if they ever do
the residual effect of all this is that i think alot of big companies are not going to come back to the staffing levels that they had pre-covid. It's the perfect excuse to hoard more cash
the residual effect of all this is that i think alot of big companies are not going to come back to the staffing levels that they had pre-covid. It's the perfect excuse to hoard more cash
sho nuff
Footballguy
Is what retribution?
You asked how they would survive...and massive bailouts seems the only way.
But should the taxpayer be bailing out industries that rely on shelters to avoid US taxes?
Gopher State
Footballguy
The future of trade and work will be different. I buying amazon, chewy, zoom, and Microsoft. The will have handsome returns.
The Commish
Footballguy
I suspect they were thinking "the economy" is first/foremost in Donald's mind and he'd do the necessary to keep this viral problem from becoming an economic problem. WIth the inaction and allowing states to do whatever they want, it's going to delay recovery and getting people back to work which is going to turn this into an economic problem. It would have been painful for 6-8 weeks with everyone on the same page doing what they were supposed to. Now, with the divisions and mixed messages it's going to be double that time if not more.
adonis
Footballguy
Thinking that if they didn't slowly acclimate folks to the new situation, that there would be a collapse.
Or perhaps they were being measured in a time of huge uncertainty to ensure no Deus Ex Machina solution came forward. Maybe seasonality would start to hold off infections, heat of summer, better treatments...
But as it becomes clear we're in this for the long haul and it is as bad as most everyone assumed, they are putting it out now.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Market up huge, jobs up. Looks like we have flattened the down curve and getting bullish again. Hopefully this continues we need this good news right now.
GoBirds
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
MPR News
@MPRnews The Labor Department admitted that government household survey-takers mistakenly counted about 4.9 million temporarily laid-off people as employed. The government doesn't correct its survey results for fear of the appearance of political manipulation.
Had the mistake been corrected, the unemployment rate would have risen to 16.1 percent in May. But the corrected April figure would have been more than than 19 percent, rather than 14.7 percent.
@MPRnews The Labor Department admitted that government household survey-takers mistakenly counted about 4.9 million temporarily laid-off people as employed. The government doesn't correct its survey results for fear of the appearance of political manipulation.
Had the mistake been corrected, the unemployment rate would have risen to 16.1 percent in May. But the corrected April figure would have been more than than 19 percent, rather than 14.7 percent.
beef
Footballguy
By liking a few of the recent posts about this market rebound I don't mean for that to look selfish or come off as everything is back to normal for the economy. Not the case at all, and I'm sorry if it does appear that way. The forward thinking ways of the markets give me hope. But yes, there is certainly still real economic and jobs concerns our country needs to continue to rebound from.
GoBirds
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
There should be no question. This thing didn't hurt all the large financial sectors. They are cruising along as they were before this. They are pretty much unphased and that will reflect in the stock market. Economy will be interesting to observe moving forward. I just hope we are passed all the nonsense around how an individual is the be all end all of the market or how they are the sole reason it's tanking. We are now in the confidence portion of economic recovery. The more faith we have in the message, the faster things will get back to normal. The slower obviously means we don't have faith in the message. Let's see what happens.
Van Dyman
Footballguy
So...
1.) the correct numbers from May and April are 16.1% and "more than 19%", respectively
2.) they won't fix the error because fixing it might have the appearance of political manipulation
3.) IMO, mis-categorizing nearly FIVE MILLION laid off people as "employed" and, therefore, posting a lower-than-actual unemployment percentage already reeks of political manipulation. They should just correct the error. The more I think about it, I really want to know how this happened.
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HellToupee
Footballguy
sho nuff
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
Covid is over?+800. To the moon! now the Covid is over and people are coming back to work.. Good times ahead.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yep. And we could have opened up a lot earlier with a capable leader and effective handling of COVID. In any event, things are definitely on the upswing finally.tonydead said:
sporthenry
Footballguy
Well it will be interesting to see what happens when Dems want to spend more money, in essence helping Trump? Does Trump get the Republicans in line? From a political standpoint, Dems shouldn't fight Republicans too hard. We'll get to see the true value of this government intervention.
The Commish
Footballguy
From what I've read, the next "dem" proposal (from the House) is 3T+. This time mainly focused on the "bubble up" approach with individuals and actual small businesses. Same $1200 per adult and upping the ante to $1K per kid. Also heard the Senate is mumbling "but the budget" shtick again. At least it isn't full throated? Guess when it's not big business cost matters? Seems weird and predictable all at the same time.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Well think they already passed that? But that is DOA in the Senate, especially now. The two things Republicans seem to want in the next bill are payroll tax cuts/holidays and liability language for hospitals and companies. Because you know who has been hurt the most in this? The corporations. And after seeing videos of Vegas and people going about like nothing has changed, it is no surprise they'd rather just absolve themselves of any liability than actually protect them.
But I digress. McConnell has pretty much said it would be the 'fourth and final' stimulus bill. I don't disagree with them waiting to see how the stimulus plays out. They've already put 3x into the economy than they did when the world was ending in 2008. I know they needed to get money out the door but I also don't think it's been allocated that efficiently. The $600 unemployment benefit won't stick around. Maybe something much smaller but it has impacted unemployment and created a disincentive to work. PPP or some of the Fed programs could be extended.
But Congress could effectively be the equivalent of the Fed tightening too soon if they don't extend some benefits. I'm sure they'll be proactive given it's an election year and I presume Trump will push for it especially if the economy shows any cracks. Just creates an interesting dynamic since Republicans could put the economy in a tailspin.
The Commish
Footballguy
I'm not sure if they have or not. I stopped following it when I saw it was likely going to be more of the same. It's been quite the botched approach all the way around, IMO. For the life of me, I can't figure out why me and my family got well over $3K. We weren't impacted at all minus some inconvenience of places being closed. We didn't need the money and gave it away to the people who did...will do the same with this round if they do the same dumb things as last time. This approach has thrown yet another huge divide between "mom/pop" shops and big companies. It's been disgusting to watch if I'm being honest. If there's anything that needed to be "bubble up", this was it yet we continue with this "trickle down"
that doesn't do anything but grow the wealth divide in this country.It will be interesting to watch McConnell and company with their
about the budget, deficits etc. It's all garbage, but many will go dumpster diving with them. They'll get their money for large companies via the "small business" shtick while leaving actual small businesses behind just like the first time. Rinse repeat...the world goes on.Yes. Bought a lot throughout March as I was ~40% cash coming into this. Although got conserative selling out my indexes a couple of weeks ago to lock in some gains. Still holding very cyclical stuff like banks, airlines, and small caps.
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Henry Ford
Footballguy
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Part of this recent market run up is likely due to investors realizing that a Biden Presidency, and all of the competency that will come with it, is extremely likely at this point.
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