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Official 2019 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

My current iteration.  More Week 12 guys that I typically carry, but I ended up getting eliminated in Week 10/11 last year because I avoided too many Week 12 players.  It felt like I needed some Week 12 players just to make it to Week 12.  Another change was dropping some more money on kicker this year.  A lot of variation on who goes off week to week, but, when the cut line is close, having those extra points from a kicker who has a few field goals can make the difference. 

QB - Baker Mayfield - CLE/7 - $19
QB - Joe Flacco - DEN/10 - $7
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/12 - $24
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Austin Ekeler - LAC/12 - $16
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Devin Singletary - BUF/6 - $8
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/12 - $24
WR - Brandin Cooks - LAR/9 - $22
WR - Jarvis Landry - CLE/7 - $18
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/10 - $13
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/11 - $11
WR - Terry McLaurin - WAS/10 - $4
TE - Evan Engram - NYG/11 - $18
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
PK - Stephen Gostkowski - NE/10 - $6
PK - Harrison Butker - KC/12 - $6
PK - Austin Seibert - CLE/7 - $3
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/7 - $6
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $4

 
QB - Carson Wentz - PHI/10 - $19
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12

Love Wentz this year and Jackson seems like a great best ball option.

RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/7 - $25
RB - David Montgomery - CHI/6 - $18
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5

Yes, I'm scared about Hunt coming back.  Banking on the DMontgomery hype here.

WR - Julio Jones - ATL/9 - $32
WR - D.J. Moore - CAR/7 - $20
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/11 - $19
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - Michael Gallup - DAL/8 - $10

Stud plus two other $20  WR1s.  

TE - George Kittle - SF/4 - $25
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9

Early stud bye and best cheap option.

PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/10 - $4

Job secure veteran and thin air kicker.

TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/4 - $3
TD - Cincinnati Bengals - CIN/9 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

Meh.

 
Scoresman said:
QB - Carson Wentz - PHI/10 - $19
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12

Love Wentz this year and Jackson seems like a great best ball option.

RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/7 - $25
RB - David Montgomery - CHI/6 - $18
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5

Yes, I'm scared about Hunt coming back.  Banking on the DMontgomery hype here.

WR - Julio Jones - ATL/9 - $32
WR - D.J. Moore - CAR/7 - $20
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/11 - $19
WR - Curtis Samuel - CAR/7 - $12
WR - Michael Gallup - DAL/8 - $10

Stud plus two other $20  WR1s.  

TE - George Kittle - SF/4 - $25
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9

Early stud bye and best cheap option.

PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/10 - $4

Job secure veteran and thin air kicker.

TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/4 - $3
TD - Cincinnati Bengals - CIN/9 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

Meh.
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I like this team quite a bit.....I'd prolly go with a different stud WR, but I can't fault u for going with Julio.

 
TheWinz said:
For the sake or argument, provide a single example
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Hopkins $34 - The o line is still a disaster so Watson could easily have a season ending injury dropping Hopkins to 2016 production.

Adams $33 - New offense (potential for run game to pickup from non-existent to pass attempts reduction) and target share erosion to emergent WRs

Thomas $32 - No legitimate WR2 / WR3 and career under-achiever at TE.  Saints offense went limp at the end of last year.

Julio $32 - TDs capped at 6-8 via gauranteed double coverage in the end zone.  No running game this last year (elevated targets).  Mouths to feed.

OBJ $31 - toxic millenial cancer on unproven offense with a QB with a temper.  Denny Green called: if you want to crown them, then crown their....

Hill $31 - only 5 of last year's 12 TDs were inside the redzone.  Is KC's offense reliably 20% better than 2017?  Week 12 bye.

JuJu $30 - his projected 100/1300/8 is discounted AB production by about 0/0/4.  shouldn't a bigger discount be applied versus top tier cornerbacks?

AB $29 - I'll skip the low hanging fruit of Carr bashing, helmets and frostbite.  This is a new situation.  AB is projected to produce 80% of his Steeler history.  

Evans $27 - swiss cheese o line, qb on a short leash, new coaching staff, still cant run the ball.  reasonable to expect a certain amount of turmoil over and above last year.

Hilton $25 - out of Luck

Allen $25 - all he does is not catch touchdowns.  and get hurt (2018 defied the trend).

I'll stop there / you get the point

 
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SeniorVBDStudent said:
Hopkins $34 - The o line is still a disaster so Watson could easily have a season ending injury dropping Hopkins to 2016 production.  Nuke was WR1 last year with the same crappy OL that allowed Watson to be sacked 62 times.  And what if Watson goes down?  Let's look back to 2017, when Watson started the year with 7 great games.  Nuke averaged 86 yards.  When Watson went down, enter the immortal Tom Savage.  Nuke's yards went up to 96.  Last year, Nuke had 115/1572/11 with Watson.  In 2015, he had 111/1521/11 with a combo of Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, TJ Yates, and Brandon Weeden.  That's right, he had a virtually identical season with 4 different scrub QB's at the helm.  He is QB-proof!
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I'll stop there.  I will gladly do this for any other stud that scares you...

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
I like it.  Can I talk you into the same for Julio, Hill, Evans and Allen?  I won't be considering any of the others.
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SeniorVBDStudent said:
Julio $32 - TDs capped at 6-8 via gauranteed double coverage in the end zone.  No running game this last year (elevated targets).  Mouths to feed.
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1599 - that's not a year; it's Julio's 5 year yardage average since 2014.  His lowest during this span was 1409... with 2 missed games.  He has finished no lower than WR7 five straight years, even with limited TD's.  What can you count on more - yards or TD's?  And which WR has finished 1, 1, 2, 2, and 3 in yards the last 5 seasons?  If you are worried about the mouths to feed, they were fed last year with plenty left over for Julio.  Hooper saw 88, Ridley had 92, Sanu had 94, and RB's saw 90.  Guess what?  There were still another 70 targets for the backup WR's and TE's.  You think ATL's defense has become studly during the offseason, or do you expect another year of Ryan chucking it?

 
Your team has been successfully entered.

QB - Carson Wentz - PHI/10 - $19
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12
QB - Derek Carr - OAK/6 - $9
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/7 - $25
RB - Kerryon Johnson - DET/5 - $23
RB - Josh Jacobs - OAK/6 - $20
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Alexander Mattison - MIN/12 - $6
WR - Mike Evans - TB/7 - $27
WR - Julian Edelman - NE/10 - $23
WR - Robby Anderson - NYJ/4 - $17
WR - Tyrell Williams - OAK/6 - $13
WR - Josh Gordon - NE/10 - $6
TE - Jared Cook - NO/9 - $17
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
PK - Greg Joseph - CLE/7 - $3
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/9 - $5
TD - Cincinnati Bengals - CIN/9 - $3

Trying this year to actually put together a team that might compete, never got beyond about week 10.  Think I am ok for Bye weeks, but if you have any thought

Any thoughts?

Thinking about maybe dropping a QB for RB?  I have Mattison, based on Cooks health in the past, but I'm just some guy, I dont spend hours or months researching, but trying to be smart.

Thanks

Pyro boy

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Hill $31 - only 5 of last year's 12 TDs were inside the redzone.  Is KC's offense reliably 20% better than 2017?  Week 12 bye.
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Talking you into Tyreek Hill will be easy.  First, I will answer the bolded above with 5 easy words - Patrick Mahomes versus Alex Smith.  As for the week 12 bye, just don't roster other high priced studs with the same bye.  And what's wrong with long TD's?  You don't like getting a usable weekly score from a single 75 yard pass?  Also, the last I checked, KC wasn't chock full of RZ threats.  What are you going to worry about next - the fact that he's too fast?  There is room to improve for 2019.  Hill only had 87 catches last year, and KC was one of only 10 teams to run under 1000 total plays.  While I expect his YPC to decrease, I think he can offset that with an increase in catches.  And with an increase in catches, why can't he maintain double digit TD's?

 
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12
QB - Sam Darnold - NYJ/4 - $9
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/7 - $35
RB - Mark Ingram - BAL/8 - $20
RB - David Montgomery - CHI/6 - $18
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5
WR - Michael Thomas - NO/9 - $32
WR - Odell Beckham - CLE/7 - $31
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/11 - $11
WR - Donte Moncrief - PIT/7 - $10
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO/9 - $8
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - PHI/10 - $6
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/10 - $5
WR - Terry McLaurin - WAS/10 - $4
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
TE - C.J. Uzomah - CIN/9 - $4
PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/10 - $4
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/4 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Evans $27 - swiss cheese o line, qb on a short leash, new coaching staff, still cant run the ball.  reasonable to expect a certain amount of turmoil over and above last year.
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Remember last year when Big Ben and Mahomes threw for a country mile?  Do you also remember that Tampa Bay actually threw for more yards?  And I bet you didn't know only KC & IND had more TD passes.  As for the bad OL, the same can be said for HOU and ATL, and look at their passing games.  You honestly think Jameis is on a short leash this year?  I think you have him confused with Mariota.  Worried about TB not being able to run the ball?  They aren't.  They will move the ball through the air, just like last year.  With Fitz gone, the QB controversy is gone.  Now, as for Evans...

What's not to like about a 6'5" WR who has topped 1K in all 5 of his seasons?  Do you think his targets are going to decrease?  180 TB targets just left the team (Humphries & Jackson).  He could improve on his 138 targets from last year, quite easily.  Did I mention he is a huge specimen at 6'5"?  Every time I watch him, it doesn't even look like he's trying hard - quite effortless.  He makes it look so easy.

Disclaimer - I like Godwin better at his price 

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Allen $25 - all he does is not catch touchdowns.  and get hurt (2018 defied the trend)
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So you think Keenan is an injury risk, and 2018 defied a "trend"?  What about 2017?  He has played all 16 games the last 2 seasons, racking up 200 catches, with an awesome 67% catch rate.  And let's discuss those three "trendy" injuries since he joined the league 6 years ago that have forced him to miss games.  His last, an ACL tear to his right knee, cost him the 2016 season.  The year before, he lacerated his kidney halfway through the season, while on pace for 134/1450/8.  In 2014, he missed the last 2 weeks with a broken collarbone.  That's it - knee, kidney, and collarbone.  Bad luck - yes.  Trendy - no, unless you think lacerated kidney's and broken collarbones are usual occurrences.  As a matter of fact, he is considered only a medium injury risk by www.sportsinjurypredictor.com

Rivers had 508 pass attempts last year, because the running game was finally working.  Melvin increased his YPC by more than a full yard!  And he was on pace for 88 targets.  Do you really think Austin Ekeler & Justin Jackson are going to allow Rivers to stay in the low 500's in 2019?  Or is it more likely Rivers will revert to his average of 596 from the last 4 years?  All Keenan does is soak up targets.

 
barackdhouse said:
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12
QB - Sam Darnold - NYJ/4 - $9
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/7 - $35
RB - Mark Ingram - BAL/8 - $20
RB - David Montgomery - CHI/6 - $18
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5
WR - Michael Thomas - NO/9 - $32
WR - Odell Beckham - CLE/7 - $31
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/11 - $11
WR - Donte Moncrief - PIT/7 - $10
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO/9 - $8
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - PHI/10 - $6
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/10 - $5
WR - Terry McLaurin - WAS/10 - $4
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
TE - C.J. Uzomah - CIN/9 - $4
PK - Matt Prater - DET/5 - $4
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/10 - $4
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/4 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3
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Montgomery over Carson... whys this? 

 
barackdhouse said:
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/7 - $35
RB - Mark Ingram - BAL/8 - $20
RB - David Montgomery - CHI/6 - $18
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5
WR - Michael Thomas - NO/9 - $32
WR - Odell Beckham - CLE/7 - $31
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/11 - $11
WR - Donte Moncrief - PIT/7 - $10
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO/9 - $8
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - PHI/10 - $6
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/10 - $5
WR - Terry McLaurin - WAS/10 - $4
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Pretty strong at RB & WR.  Only thing here I see is 2 top dogs with same bye.  If you equally like Tyreek and OBJ, you could remove this conflict, but as I said, only if you like Tyreek just as much as OBJ.  Good luck

 
Changed this multiple times, but really like the RBs and WRs.  

QB - Jared Goff - 14
QB - Tom Brady - 11
RB - Nick Chubb - 25
RB - David Montgomery - 18
RB - Chris Carson - 18
RB - Miles Sanders - 15
RB - Jaylen Samuels - 11
RB - Duke Johnson - 9
RB - Darwin Thompson - 5
WR - Calvin Ridley - 20
WR - Tyler Lockett - 19
WR - James Washington - 13
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 11
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - 6
WR - Josh Gordon - 6
TE - Hunter Henry - 17
TE - Vance McDonald - 16
PK - Mike Badgley - 5
PK - Steve Hauschka - 3
TD - Dallas Cowboys - 5
TD - New York Jets - 3

Total value: 250

 
QB - Dak Prescott - DAL/8 - $12
QB - Josh Allen - BUF/6 - $11
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/7 - $35
RB - David Montgomery - CHI/6 - $18
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Nyheim Hines - IND/6 - $13
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5
RB - Tony Pollard - DAL/8 - $4
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/7 - $22
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/9 - $20
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/10 - $13
WR - Michael Gallup - DAL/8 - $10
WR - Mohamed Sanu - ATL/9 - $10
WR - John Brown - BUF/6 - $9
TE - David Njoku - CLE/7 - $15
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
PK - Ryan Succop - TEN/11 - $4
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/10 - $4
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/9 - $5
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/12 - $5

Honest thoughts.  I'm not really top-heavy, but think everybody should at least put up points every week.  Quantity over quality a good idea?

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Does this mean that you also like Fuller, Ridley, Watkins, and Mike Williams better than their corresponding WR1s?
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Haha, no

Of the WR2's you listed, I know Godwin is the most expensive.  While I don't expect a full-blown monster season, I think he will bridge the target gap between himself and Evans.  Last year, TB had 412 targets distributed to 4 different WR's.  Two of those WR's are gone, and have basically been replaced by Breshad Perriman.  While I expect an uptick in RB targets and a decent chunk to go to TE's, there is still a gold mine left for Godwin.  His volume will mitigate the need to be TD dependent.

As for the others, I kinda like them all, but each one has his shortcomings.  Fuller has been in the league 3 years, and each year he has played less and less games.  With Coutee ailing, it would be nice if he could distance himself before Coutee recovers from his ankle sprain.  Fuller appears healed from last season's ACL, but we really won't know how he's doing until week 1.  He has been in bubble wrap.  In Ridley's case, I think his only hindrance is the talent around him.  Ryan was studly last year, being the only QB to produce a WR1 (Julio at #2), WR2 (Ridley at #20), WR3 (Sanu at #29) and TE1 (Hooper at #6).  With a healthy (?) Devonta, where can Ridley's target increase come from?  I guess he could siphon from Julio and Sanu, but those 10 TD's might be fun to chase this year.  Sammy started his career with a bang, racking up over 2K in his first 2 seasons in BUF.  Then the wheels started coming off.  He hasn't played a full 16 since his rookie year in 2014.  And he hasn't topped 40 catches or 600 yards since his sophomore season in 2015.  Just as with Fuller, Watkins will pay huge dividends if their bodies allow.  And finally, Mike Williams.  I guess I put him in the same kind of category as Godwin - meaning that I prefer him at $16 vs Keenan at $25.  But I will take Hopkins, Julio, and Hill over Fuller, Ridley, and Watkins.  If I had to narrow it down one more, I'd take Ridley over Julio.

 
Titans_fan said:
QB - Dak Prescott - DAL/8 - $12
QB - Josh Allen - BUF/6 - $11
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/7 - $35
RB - David Montgomery - CHI/6 - $18
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Nyheim Hines - IND/6 - $13
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5
RB - Tony Pollard - DAL/8 - $4
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/7 - $22
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/9 - $20
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/10 - $13
WR - Michael Gallup - DAL/8 - $10
WR - Mohamed Sanu - ATL/9 - $10
WR - John Brown - BUF/6 - $9
TE - David Njoku - CLE/7 - $15
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
PK - Ryan Succop - TEN/11 - $4
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/10 - $4
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/9 - $5
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/12 - $5

Honest thoughts.  I'm not really top-heavy, but think everybody should at least put up points every week.  Quantity over quality a good idea?
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This is gonna be a weird question, but did you pick your team based on early bye weeks?  I don't ask because I hate your choices, but simply because I have yet to see a team with so few players from the later weeks.

 
TheWinz said:
This is gonna be a weird question, but did you pick your team based on early bye weeks?  I don't ask because I hate your choices, but simply because I have yet to see a team with so few players from the later weeks.
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For the most part.  I went through each week and looked at who I would be happy with not looking at prices (other than a general knowledge of where they would fall) or opponents..

My first pass through was $5 over, so I had to make a few adjustments.  (Dropped Breida for Darwin and adjusted K and D to get under cap).

 
Dr. Dan said:
Montgomery over Carson... whys this? 
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Fair question. I have them dead equal in my rankings, they're equal in value here, but tiebreaker goes to being a Bears fan. Even though I live in the NW. I fully expect Montgomery to crush it this year. I like Carson a lot, though. Week 11 bye for Carson might be another tiebreaker in favor of Montgomery. 

TheWinz said:
Pretty strong at RB & WR.  Only thing here I see is 2 top dogs with same bye.  If you equally like Tyreek and OBJ, you could remove this conflict, but as I said, only if you like Tyreek just as much as OBJ.  Good luck
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Good observation. I can probably talk myself into that one. In a vacuum I think OBJ could have a transcendent type of season. I don't think we've seen his best numbers yet. But Hill and Mahomes are special, too. So.......I might reconsider that. 

 
Elevencents said:
I love Carson but it’s a great idea since a lot of people are going to roster Carson. 
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It's a great idea IF Carson bombs (or at least does worse than Montgomery). If he does well (better than Montgomery), you're suddenly behind the 8000 people with him on their roster and worrying about a cut.

 
apalmer said:
It's a great idea IF Carson bombs (or at least does worse than Montgomery). If he does well (better than Montgomery), you're suddenly behind the 8000 people with him on their roster and worrying about a cut.
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Yes if a player you don't pick scores better than a player you do pick, you are worse off. In other news water is wet. ;)

 
barackdhouse said:
Yes if a player you don't pick scores better than a player you do pick, you are worse off. In other news water is wet. ;)
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You know what he means - if you don't own a very common player who does well, you are at a huge disadvantage.  If you don't own a very rare player that has the best season ever, that player barely moves the needle, and doesn't hurt you.  In other news, the contest begins in one short week!

 
barackdhouse said:
Yes if a player you don't pick scores better than a player you do pick, you are worse off. In other news water is wet. ;)
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If it's between Montgomery and Tevin Coleman and one you don't pick does better than your guy it's not a big deal. It won't bump the cut line that much and there aren't an enormous number of teams getting a benefit you have to overcome. If it's a guy who is on 40-50% of the teams who does better than your guy, it's both raising the cut line dramatically and putting a whole lot of teams above you that you have to find a way to catch.  Ask people who didn't have James Conner last year how that works.

 
TheWinz said:
You know what he means - if you don't own a very common player who does well, you are at a huge disadvantage.  If you don't own a very rare player that has the best season ever, that player barely moves the needle, and doesn't hurt you.  In other news, the contest begins in one short week!
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Yeah I get it but it still comes down to who do you think scores more and being right about it. Lots of people are picking Montgomery too. I don't know why it's being assumed Carson is going to have a higher ownership %. They're priced equal and lots of people have them ranked close to equal. Mostly I was just being snarky though.

 
barackdhouse said:
Yeah I get it but it still comes down to who do you think scores more and being right about it. Lots of people are picking Montgomery too. I don't know why it's being assumed Carson is going to have a higher ownership %. They're priced equal and lots of people have them ranked close to equal. Mostly I was just being snarky though.
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I knew you were joking, and yes, Montgomery will be a fairly common guy too.  Not all 15K entries are in this thread drooling over Carson at the moment.

 
barackdhouse said:
Yeah I get it but it still comes down to who do you think scores more and being right about it. Lots of people are picking Montgomery too. I don't know why it's being assumed Carson is going to have a higher ownership %. They're priced equal and lots of people have them ranked close to equal. Mostly I was just being snarky though.
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FWIW, I wasn't knocking your pick.  I was responding to the post that said taking Montgomery was a good move because a lot of teams were going to have Carson. Taking Montgomery because you think he'll do better is legit. Taking him simply to zag when everyone else is zigging, isn't.

 
Built this roster on the premise that (a) I wanted Kelce despite the week 12 bye, and (b) I wanted a stud RB with an early bye.  I anticipate I'll take a few other cracks at this swapping Bell for McCaffery, Elliot, or Kamara and see how things shake out.  Taking both Saquon and Kelce would just seem too improbable to get past both weeks 11 and 12, especially with Saquon facing the Bears in week 12 likely preventing a monster score that week.

QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/8 - $12
QB - Matthew Stafford - DET/5 - $10
QB - Derek Carr - OAK/6 - $9

In past years the 3rd QB has saved my hide multiple weeks (vs. 2 slightly higher scoring QBs)

RB - LeVeon Bell - NYJ/4 - $29
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/11 - $18
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/10 - $9
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/12 - $5

Obviously I'm counting on Bell here as my RB stud... Carson/Johnson should hopefully be a solid RB2 combo and occasional flex filler... Darwin obvi due to upside, I don't know how you don't roster him for $5, but can't rely on him either.

WR - Mike Evans - TB/7 - $27
WR - Kenny Golladay - DET/5 - $21
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/9 - $20
WR - D.K. Metcalf - SEA/11 - $11
WR - Josh Gordon - NE/10 - $6

Metcalf my pick I'm least excited about but should have a couple weeks where a long TD alone gives him Best Ball value... and his bye week fit well with my squad.  Gordon like Thompson I feel like you gotta slot him in there... the potential upside for $6 is hard to fine elsewhere.

TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $29
TE - O.J. Howard - TB/7 - $18
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $9

I always like to go for flex scoring from TE slot.  Obvi Kelce is tough with that week 12 bye, but as noted that was my starting point.

PK - Randy Bullock - CIN/9 - $3
PK - Jason Sanders - MIA/5 - $3
PK - Daniel Carlson - OAK/6 - $3
TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/6 - $5
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/4 - $3

Picks here mostly based on bye weeks.  I prefer taking 3 kickers since output is so erratic week-to-week.  Same with team defense, but couldn't afford it, and took Indy to ensure the week 6 bye since all my skill position players are active that week.

Feedback appreciated!

 
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I'm having a hard time understanding the Derek Carr love.  I get that he's cheap, and he's a starting QB.....there's a reason he's cheap....he's a turd samich.....and if he couldn't consistently feed Cooper,  what makes anyone think bringing in AB is going to fix things?  Hard pass on this whole offense.

 
Dialed into a 21 player roster.  Took a risk at QB scares me but I feel good about it. Mostly highly owned guys and will need the studs to be consistent and stay healthy  

QB $31

RB $82

WR $65

TE $53

K $12

D $7

 
Manster said:
I'm having a hard time understanding the Derek Carr love.  I get that he's cheap, and he's a starting QB.....there's a reason he's cheap....he's a turd samich.....and if he couldn't consistently feed Cooper,  what makes anyone think bringing in AB is going to fix things?  Hard pass on this whole offense.
Click to expand...
Because AB is worlds better than Cooper?

Neither Carr nor Cooper are world beaters.  AB is.

Having said that, there are plenty of QB options in the $9 - $11 range in the contest, and I'm not advocating Carr be on your roster.  I'm just not convinced that the 2019 Raiders are doomed.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Because AB is worlds better than Cooper?

Neither Carr nor Cooper are world beaters.  AB is.

Having said that, there are plenty of QB options in the $9 - $11 range in the contest, and I'm not advocating Carr be on your roster.  I'm just not convinced that the 2019 Raiders are doomed.
Click to expand...
Cooper is not that far below AB.....I think they are very similar players, AB obviously better, but Cooper has elite quickness and route running.....If you switch where they've played over their careers so far, what do u think their numbers look like?

Carr, and a poor pass blocking line are the issue in Oakland......AB will most likely have a huge game and then disappear for a couple, wash, rinse, repeat.....sound familiar?

 
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Manster said:
Cooper is not that far below AB.....I think they are very similar players, AB obviously better, but Cooper has elite quickness and route running.....If you switch where they've played over their careers so far, what do u think their numbers look like?

Carr, and a poor pass blocking line are the issue in Oakland......AB will most likely have a huge game and then disappear for a couple, wash, rinse, repeat.....sound familiar?
Click to expand...
I don't think you're crazy; we just disagree.  I don't think Cooper would have put anything like AB numbers if he had been in Pittsburg the last 5 years.

AB and Tyrell and Jacobs can cover up a lot of Carr / o line weakness....how much so remains to be seen.

 
Grid71 said:
Dialed into a 21 player roster.  Took a risk at QB scares me but I feel good about it. Mostly highly owned guys and will need the studs to be consistent and stay healthy  

QB $31

RB $82

WR $65

TE $53

K $12

D $7
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I like your mixture of studs and value picks, just not a fan of the QB's you chose.  Watch out for the byes!

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
I don't think you're crazy; we just disagree.  I don't think Cooper would have put anything like AB numbers if he had been in Pittsburg the last 5 years.

AB and Tyrell and Jacobs can cover up a lot of Carr / o line weakness....how much so remains to be seen.
Click to expand...
Ben finds a guy and locks onto him.....juju is now that guy.

I'm betting AB will be missing Ben big time soon enough

 
apalmer said:
FWIW, I wasn't knocking your pick.  I was responding to the post that said taking Montgomery was a good move because a lot of teams were going to have Carson. Taking Montgomery because you think he'll do better is legit. Taking him simply to zag when everyone else is zigging, isn't.
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You know what I meant. It works both ways. If Montgomery does well and Carson doesn’t, you’re at a significant advantage because a lot of people are tanking and a less amount are enjoying the Montgomery production. I’ll remember to spell it all out next time. 

 
Elevencents said:
You know what I meant. It works both ways. If Montgomery does well and Carson doesn’t, you’re at a significant advantage because a lot of people are tanking and a less amount are enjoying the Montgomery production. I’ll remember to spell it all out next time. 
Click to expand...
Maybe I'm the one who needs to spell it out. It's not a one week and there are no bonus points for being a high scorer in any week. All that's important for 13 weeks is not being at the bottom of the pile.  If there really are a huge amount of Carson owners (as you implied), the risk is that it only takes one week of him putting up a big number to create a situation where you're looking up at 5000 teams above you.  It doesn't matter if Montgomery out-performed him for 8 straight weeks or if Montgomery scores more than Carson for the season--one big week from a highly owned player can be fatal for those that don't own him.

 
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apalmer said:
Maybe I'm the one who needs to spell it out. It's not a one week and there are no bonus points for being a high scorer in any week. All that's important for 13 weeks is not being at the bottom of the pile.  If there really are a huge amount of Carson owners (as you implied), the risk is that it only takes one week of him putting up a big number to create a situation where you're looking up at 5000 teams above you.  It doesn't matter if Montgomery out-performed him for 8 straight weeks or if Montgomery scores more than Carson for the season--one big week from a highly owned player can be fatal for those that don't own him.
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Fair. But the assumption that one or the other will be higher owned is an arbitrary guess by any of us at this point. It can just as easily be Carson that is underowned. You definitely want some chalk picks and some that are underowned and excel. Of course there are also all the permutations of those who own both players. It's just simpler to think of it as "who do I think scores more?" and not worry about ownership % since we can't control that. 

 
With as much time as we spend trying to build the best roster, I wonder how much time David spends compiling the values. It really is amazing.

Every time I think I have it figured out, I'm over by 1 or 2. I mean it really is constructed well. 

 
I came up with a new way for me to look at my roster construction (% spent on each Position) and Bye week impact....  $ Spent/Bye Week 

QB = 13%     RB = 32%   WR = 31%        TE = 14%      PK = 5%    Def = 5% 

The biggest financial BYE issues are Weeks are 9 and 12  --> Both have 23% of budget on Bye those weeks...  

Week 9 - Brees, Ridley & J Cook & PK

Week 12 - Cousins, D Cook, D Thompson & Mike Williams

I might have to diversify some of my choices....  

 
Birdie048 said:
I came up with a new way for me to look at my roster construction (% spent on each Position) and Bye week impact....  $ Spent/Bye Week 

QB = 13%     RB = 32%   WR = 31%        TE = 14%      PK = 5%    Def = 5% 

The biggest financial BYE issues are Weeks are 9 and 12  --> Both have 23% of budget on Bye those weeks...  

Week 9 - Brees, Ridley & J Cook & PK

Week 12 - Cousins, D Cook, D Thompson & Mike Williams

I might have to diversify some of my choices....  
Click to expand...
I've always found week 9 a difficult bye week to work around.  There are three potent offenses on bye that week:

Falcons, Rams and the Saints.  It does require some very difficult choices, who do you really want from those three teams?

 
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