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Official 2019 FBG Subscriber Contest


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On 10/2/2019 at 5:30 PM, TheWinz said:

Starting week 5 with Rams vs Seahawks, and cutting down to 6250

QB - Goff (1546), Wilson (262)

RB - Carson (3586), Brown (459), Gurley (184), Henderson (80), Penny (78)

WR - Lockett (2923), Kupp (1111), Cooks (269), Woods (221), Metcalf (173), Reynolds (133), Brown (97), Moore (65)

TE - Dissly (175), Everett (165)

K - Zuerlein (664), Myers (360)

D - Seahawks (1593), Rams (288)

I will be starting with Goff & Lockett, as will 623 others.

Wow just wow in all my years doing this I’ve never experienced this .... in .25 above the cut at 6246th place a meaningless 2 yard pick up by Chubb on last drive put me over ( barring adjustment) T.Y. kittle !!!

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Cut to 5000 next week

Now we get to see who put a little time in spreading out bye weeks  and bigger rosters should have advantage the next 7 weeks

Week 6 Buffalo, Indianapolis, Oakland, Chicago ,Jacobs, Waller and Carlson for me

Week 7 Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Winston, Evans, Austin Seibert, and TB DEF

Week 8 Dallas, Baltimore, Andrews and Gallup

Week 9 Cincinnati, Atlanta, LA Rams, New Orleans , none

Week 10 New England, Denver, Philadelphia, Washington, Jacksonville, Houston, Brady, Gordon, Fournette

Week 11 Tennessee, Seattle, NY Giants, Green Bay,  A.Jones, MVS, Seattle DEF

Week 12 Kansas City, LA Chargers, Arizona, Minnesota, Zane Gonzalez and Fitz

7 and 10 are my worst, but feel like im below average of most

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5 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

but duke was supposed to be the top scorer at $9 this year. I was told to book it:) 

Here are all the $9 RB's in the contest, and their current rankings:

Carlos Hyde - RB30

Duke Johnson - RB38

Matt Breida - RB49

Giovani Bernard - RB55

Justin Jackson - RB63

Jalen Richard - RB67

Mike Davis - RB77

Justice Hill - RB78

CJ Anderson - RB95

Well, Duke isn't the top guy, but I guess he's doing better than a guy like Justice Hill, whose best weekly score is 2.7  ;)

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3 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Here are all the $9 RB's in the contest, and their current rankings:

Carlos Hyde - RB30

Duke Johnson - RB38

Matt Breida - RB49

Giovani Bernard - RB55

Justin Jackson - RB63

Jalen Richard - RB67

Mike Davis - RB77

Justice Hill - RB78

CJ Anderson - RB95

Well, Duke isn't the top guy, but I guess he's doing better than a guy like Justice Hill, whose best weekly score is 2.7  ;)

Duke has been possibly the biggest disappointment based on his hype... i was told he was a lock to get rb2 numbers and would get 60 receptions. 

Regardless, hea definitely a lead weight on peoppe in this contest. I would still take anyone else $8-9 over him. the upside is big for all of those guys. Duke is a bust. These groupthink "steals" seem to always bust

Edited by Dr. Dan
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19 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

Well, another week where I need MNF to come thru for me....sitting at 137.0 (and cut is currently 137.30)

Chubb (-8.4), Sibiert (-17.6) & SF Def (-4.0)

It appears the "Fat Lady has sung" my tune....  Started 0.3 below cut and the Cut Line moved 10 points ...  

Chubb (10.4 -->  2.0 positive) & SF Def (12.0 -->  8.0 positive) for a net 10.0 climb.  

Score 147.0  -->  Cut 147.25 

The only issue was Watkins = 0.0 (while Hock was on bye).  

 

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL!  It is an exciting challenge! 

Edited by Birdie048
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Scored 192 and advanced!  Kittle and Kerryon survived the BYE's

My roster is pretty highly owned except a few players.

No Singletary/Beasley/Bears kicker this week.

Keenan Allen 200 left

Julio Jones 277 left

Kittle 332 left.

Kerryon 659 and CMC 670

Brady 1,221 and Lamar 3,254 are my QB's who remain pretty popular.

Singletary has gone from 5,023 down to 2,702 though. 

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I’ve managed to make it through so far with only Derek Carr at QB.  If Darnold doesn’t come back this week I will take a 0 at QB.  Though I made it comfortably this week with Carr only giving me 12 points so it’s possible I could still survive with a 0 at QB

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Duke has been possibly the biggest disappointment based on his hype... i was told he was a lock to get rb2 numbers and would get 60 receptions. 

Regardless, hea definitely a lead weight on peoppe in this contest. I would still take anyone else $8-9 over him. the upside is big for all of those guys. Duke is a bust

Sure, he isn't producing RB2 numbers, but that's why he was priced at $9.  And to say you'd rather have all the other $8 & $9 options is silly.  This isn't a dynasty or keeper league - it's a yearly contest.  Duke is far from a bust - he has 205 rushing yards on just 32 carries - that's 6.4 YPC (as compared to Hyde's 4.2).  He is also averaging 9.4 YPR (9/85), while Hyde sits at 1.6 YPR (5/8).  The Texans are simply not giving him enough touches.  Don't hate the player... hate the team.

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3 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Sure, he isn't producing RB2 numbers, but that's why he was priced at $9.  And to say you'd rather have all the other $8 & $9 options is silly.  This isn't a dynasty or keeper league - it's a yearly contest.  Duke is far from a bust - he has 205 rushing yards on just 32 carries - that's 6.4 YPC (as compared to Hyde's 4.2).  He is also averaging 9.4 YPR (9/85), while Hyde sits at 1.6 YPR (5/8).  The Texans are simply not giving him enough touches.  Don't hate the player... hate the team.

right, he was $9, but people were falling all over themselves told take him. I recall you saying duke was the first guy you would choose when remaking your roster.

idk how many people have actually used Duke, but his ceiling I what it is. Some guys around 8-9 dollars have higher ceilings. It's a long season. Injuries happen. You mentioned Hill... I would be willing to bet hes more involved in the offense week 15 than he is today. Same for Henderson. Brieda may post RB2 numbers ROS. 

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Have been averaging over 200 so that’s nice, but next week will be a bit of a test with Jacobs and possibly 3 of my 4 TEs out (Doyle/Waller bye and Hock possibly out). 
 

Brady / Jackson / Winston - (no shared byes) 

Jacobs / Carson / Ekeler / Breida / Pollard - (no shared Byes)
 

Edelman / Ridley / Lockett / Samuel / MVS / Gordon - (Edelman/Gordon w10)


Doyle / Hockenson / Andrews / Waller - (Doyle/Waller this week)

Carlson / Seibert

Chiefs / Seahawks / Bucks (no shared byes)

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

right, he was $9, but people were falling all over themselves told take him. I recall you saying duke was the first guy you would choose when remaking your roster.

idk how many people have actually used Duke, but his ceiling I what it is. Some guys around 8-9 dollars have higher ceilings. It's a long season. Injuries happen. You mentioned Hill... I would be willing to bet hes more involved in the offense week 15 than he is today. Same for Henderson. Brieda may post RB2 numbers ROS. 

Yes, Duke was the first player I choose.  And no, I have yet to use him (along with Singletary).  As for Breida, I already said he was a good deal, and I rostered him too.  Henderson was $15, so he should not be a part of this conversation.  As for Hill, of course he will be more involved as the season goes on.  It would be hard for him to be used less (7, 2, 1, 4, 2 touches since week 1).

Duke has 32 rushes thus far.  Only Barkley and Breida have as many carries and a better YPC.

Duke has 9 catches thus far.  Only David Johnson, Dalvin Cook, Miles Sanders, Chris Thompson, & TJ Yeldon have as many catches and a better YPR.

I am just trying to show you he is not a bust, as you said he was.  Underutilized... definitely, but we as FF'ers can't control that.

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47 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Yes, Duke was the first player I choose.  And no, I have yet to use him (along with Singletary).  As for Breida, I already said he was a good deal, and I rostered him too.  Henderson was $15, so he should not be a part of this conversation.  As for Hill, of course he will be more involved as the season goes on.  It would be hard for him to be used less (7, 2, 1, 4, 2 touches since week 1).

Duke has 32 rushes thus far.  Only Barkley and Breida have as many carries and a better YPC.

Duke has 9 catches thus far.  Only David Johnson, Dalvin Cook, Miles Sanders, Chris Thompson, & TJ Yeldon have as many catches and a better YPR.

I am just trying to show you he is not a bust, as you said he was.  Underutilized... definitely, but we as FF'ers can't control that.

Agree. When you're spending $9 on RB's you're hoping one hits.  I paired Breida, Duke and Singletary and am happy with that back end depth.  Singletary fresh legs for second half and half his owners are gone.  Duke will have some games here and there that'll count and I used Breida last night.

 

 

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Fun teams still alive...

- 43 teams with only 1 QB, 2 of which have survived with only Brees and his goose eggs

- 5 teams with only 2 RB's, 2 of which have survived with Saquon and his goose eggs

- 3 teams with only 2 WR's, 1 of which rostered exactly 4 RB's and 1 TE, forcing him to use all of his RB/WR/TE every week

- 288 teams with only 1 TE, but my favorite has to be the guy with only Gronk.  He's gonna be hurting when NE is off week 10.

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6 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Here are all the $9 RB's in the contest, and their current rankings:

Carlos Hyde - RB30

Duke Johnson - RB38

Matt Breida - RB49

Giovani Bernard - RB55

Justin Jackson - RB63

Jalen Richard - RB67

Mike Davis - RB77

Justice Hill - RB78

CJ Anderson - RB95

Well, Duke isn't the top guy, but I guess he's doing better than a guy like Justice Hill, whose best weekly score is 2.7  ;)

for obvious reasons raw positional rankings arent the best metric of determining value in best ball formats.  for example brieda has been much better than djj so far even though hes scored fewer points per week.

as to your point, going forward i guess id rank the $9 rbs: 1-brieda.  2-hyde.  3-gio.  4- djj

as far as whether djj has been a 'bust' so far or not...idk, i guess depends how youd define a bust.  i mean should you ever be too disappointed with a $9 player not contributing in this contest?  maybe not?  having said that, you certainly havent got your $9 worth and it doesnt look like you ever will. 

 

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21 minutes ago, sooted72 said:

for obvious reasons raw positional rankings arent the best metric of determining value in best ball formats.  for example brieda has been much better than djj so far even though hes scored fewer points per week.

as to your point, going forward i guess id rank the $9 rbs: 1-brieda.  2-hyde.  3-gio.  4- djj

as far as whether djj has been a 'bust' so far or not...idk, i guess depends how youd define a bust.  i mean should you ever be too disappointed with a $9 player not contributing in this contest?  maybe not?  having said that, you certainly havent got your $9 worth and it doesnt look like you ever will

Here is where we differ.  He has had weeks of 11, 8, 7, 3 and 3 so far, without scoring a TD.  To me, a usable score is anything in the double digits, so he has had one thus far.  If I recall when I selected him, I was hoping for about 6 usable games, and I still think he can reach that mark.

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Fun teams still alive...

- 43 teams with only 1 QB, 2 of which have survived with only Brees and his goose eggs

- 5 teams with only 2 RB's, 2 of which have survived with Saquon and his goose eggs

- 3 teams with only 2 WR's, 1 of which rostered exactly 4 RB's and 1 TE, forcing him to use all of his RB/WR/TE every week

- 288 teams with only 1 TE, but my favorite has to be the guy with only Gronk.  He's gonna be hurting when NE is off week 10.

Good summary!  Nice to believe somebody thinks Gronk will return (and not to the Fox Booth)??

I noticed the Top Scoring Team in Week 5 will not have a QB in Week 8 (Dak & Lamar both on Bye).

 

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15 hours ago, sooted72 said:

shouldnt have advanced but matt brieda made it so.

Yep

Every year I wonder who will be there player who keeps the team alive. This year it was Breida. (Or maybe arob, but that wasn't MNF)

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Not sure who's noticed, but Calcomatic results don't match FBG results for this week. FBG has the cutoff at 147.35, Calcomatic has it at 147.25. Pretty sure Calcomatic is wrong.

The discrepancy is the Denver defense and comes down to the last play of the half in the DEN-LAC game. Ekeler fumbled through the end zone, which is a turnover, which makes 3 takeaways for Denver, which gives them 6 points. Calcomatic is only crediting them with 4.

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47 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Yep

Every year I wonder who will be there player who keeps the team alive. This year it was Breida. (Or maybe arob, but that wasn't MNF)

the only year i ever made the money ray rice made that ridiculous play on like 4th and 21 or whatever.  needed more from him to stay alive and he delivered.  if they dont convert that long 4th down im toast.  think i got $25 back lol.

also was it a texans/jaguars game like 5 years ago that was like 45-42 where matt schaub threw 5 tds?  he kept me alive that week and it was the only week i used him the whole contest but if i didnt have him as my qb3 i wouldnt have advanced that week.

too lazy to look all the details up lol.

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3 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Here is where we differ.  He has had weeks of 11, 8, 7, 3 and 3 so far, without scoring a TD.  To me, a usable score is anything in the double digits, so he has had one thus far.  If I recall when I selected him, I was hoping for about 6 usable games, and I still think he can reach that mark.

i mean sure he has some paths to value, but gun to your head if you had to choose between him being valuable and useless for the rest of the year, youd have to choose useless.  hyde has been getting the lions share of the carries in addition to goal line work and watson doesnt check it down ever so theres just nothing to see here.

sure he'll get into the end zone at some point and will maybe even score for you some weeks, but its pretty unlikely he'll be any kind of impact player over the rest of this contest.  not impossible ofc, just unlikely.  like i said i still think hes like the 4th best $9 rb going forward so im not giving up hope on him altogether.

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46 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

$18 worth out this Week.  Singletary, Beasley, Bears kicker.

Anyone with a couple Bears and Colts?  

I will be without RB Devin Singletary ($8) & K Daniel Carlson ($3)

Also, sounds like I may be without TE Evan Engram ($18 - knee) and possibly RB David Johnson ($30 - back)

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4 hours ago, jdkapow said:

Not sure who's noticed, but Calcomatic results don't match FBG results for this week. FBG has the cutoff at 147.35, Calcomatic has it at 147.25. Pretty sure Calcomatic is wrong.

The discrepancy is the Denver defense and comes down to the last play of the half in the DEN-LAC game. Ekeler fumbled through the end zone, which is a turnover, which makes 3 takeaways for Denver, which gives them 6 points. Calcomatic is only crediting them with 4.

Yep!  We've noticed :) 

I will have to review my process to see why that fumble was not credited to the DEN defense.  It's on my to-do list for tonight.

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Awards and notable teams of the week.

Strongest Living Team: Last week’s leader, Entry 107906, cleared 200 points again in week 5 and now is averaging 229.47 points per week…which is only good enough for 2nd place. Entry 109548 took the lead by the tiniest margin with an average of 229.48.

Strongest Dead Team: Entry 106112, dead since week 3, is averaging 205.31 points per week, good enough for 204th overall.

Keep Your Day Job Award:  Parrot Head (Entry 110903) had a pretty good week and escaped after a two week run here. The worst team in the contest (not counting 10+ QB gimmick teams) is Entry 105433, averaging a lowly 112.12 points per week.

Safest Team: Entry 103256 has cleared the cutoff by at least 63.7 points every week. This is one of four teams that’s scored over 200 every week. Not surprisingly, each of those teams is in the top 20 in this category.

Just Skating By Award: I looked at this award two different ways this week: (1) the living team whose BEST week cleared the cutoff by the smallest amount, and (2) the living team with the smallest TOTAL clearance (summing up their weekly clearance over the season). Turns out it’s the same team both ways: Entry 112425 has cleared the bar by a total of 14.40 points (nobody else is under 20). This team’s clearances by week are 2.55, 7.30, 3.25 and 1.30. There are four living teams that have yet to clear the cutoff by 10 points.

Steady Eddie Award: Team 111553 is kind of amazing. Here are their scores: 152.95, 153.85, 153.25, 155.50, 154.50. That’s a standard deviation of 1.02, easily the lowest in the contest. Unfortunately, this team is dead because they missed the cutoff by 1.05 points in week 3. The most consistent living team (3rd overall) is MANLYMAN (Entry 108710), with a standard deviation of 3.09.

Missed it by That Much Award: Team 111553 inspired this award: which dead team has come the closest to still being alive? Aaaaand it turns out we’re not really ready for this one. There are 7 teams that died by 0.05 points one week and would otherwise still be alive. I’ll revisit this when/if it gets more interesting.

Icarus Award: Through 4 weeks, Entry 108717 was sitting in 60th place overall (by average points). But they collapsed to 123.30 this week and died. Nothing in particular brought them low (the zero from Mike Evans certainly didn’t help), just mediocre weeks from most of their players.

Notable Teams:

QBs: Last week, two of the 25 teams with 8 or more QBs were alive. This week, Entry 106359 died, leaving only Entry 107204 and their 11 QBs remaining.

RBs: Sugarbears (Entry 100544), the last surviving 12-RB team, is still with us.

WRs: We lost the last 13-WR team this week. Five 12-WR teams remain.

TEs: Two of the three 7-TE teams died this week, leaving only Road Rage (Team 104111).

PKs: The two remaining 7-PK teams both survived this week: Entry 107296 and Entry 112043.

DEFs: Lots of 6-DEF teams still around.

And me, you ask? I’m alive and doing great: I’m in 190th overall.

More to come later...

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And now the players:

Eliminated Players: Happy trails, Ryan Griffin. Your 4 owners are all dead, and you become the 3rd player completely eliminated from the contest. D’Onta Foreman is on life support, still rostered on one living team (out of 10 originally).

The Biggest Mistake: T.Y. Hilton was only rostered on 90 teams, but that doesn’t make his owners feel better about his dismal 21.1% survival rate (the overall survival rate is 49.7%). Saquon Barkley and Damien Williams are much more heavily owned but have survival rates below 24%. Eric Ebron has the lowest survival rate, 24.5%, among players who’ve actually scored points each week. Looking at it still another way, Harrison Butker has the highest ownership (he’s on 1120 teams) among players with a below-average survival rate (47.8%). Hunter Henry (1580 teams, 39.1% survival rate) is another strong contender.

The Survivor: No ambiguity here: Cooper Kupp was expensive ($20), heavily owned (1371 teams), and totally worth it, with a 74.3% survival rate. Chris Godwin and Will Dissly are at 70.5%; nobody else is above 70%.

The Bargain: Dissly cost you only $7.

The Parasite:  Chris Herndon and Zach Zenner haven’t gone near a football field this season, and yet 50.7% and 50.0% of their owners, respectively, are still alive. No other player who hasn’t scored yet has a survival rate better than average.

The Martyr: Aaron Rodgers is averaging over 20 points per week to no avail: only 27.4% of his owners are still alive. In the non-QB category, DeAndre Hopkins is averaging over 15 per week (okay, a lot of that came in week 1) and yet 2/3 of his owners have been eliminated.

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1 hour ago, jdkapow said:

And now the players:

Eliminated Players: Happy trails, Ryan Griffin. Your 4 owners are all dead, and you become the 3rd player completely eliminated from the contest. D’Onta Foreman is on life support, still rostered on one living team (out of 10 originally).

The Biggest Mistake: T.Y. Hilton was only rostered on 90 teams, but that doesn’t make his owners feel better about his dismal 21.1% survival rate (the overall survival rate is 49.7%). Saquon Barkley and Damien Williams are much more heavily owned but have survival rates below 24%. Eric Ebron has the lowest survival rate, 24.5%, among players who’ve actually scored points each week. Looking at it still another way, Harrison Butker has the highest ownership (he’s on 1120 teams) among players with a below-average survival rate (47.8%). Hunter Henry (1580 teams, 39.1% survival rate) is another strong contender.

The Survivor: No ambiguity here: Cooper Kupp was expensive ($20), heavily owned (1371 teams), and totally worth it, with a 74.3% survival rate. Chris Godwin and Will Dissly are at 70.5%; nobody else is above 70%.

The Bargain: Dissly cost you only $7.

The Parasite:  Chris Herndon and Zach Zenner haven’t gone near a football field this season, and yet 50.7% and 50.0% of their owners, respectively, are still alive. No other player who hasn’t scored yet has a survival rate better than average.

The Martyr: Aaron Rodgers is averaging over 20 points per week to no avail: only 27.4% of his owners are still alive. In the non-QB category, DeAndre Hopkins is averaging over 15 per week (okay, a lot of that came in week 1) and yet 2/3 of his owners have been eliminated.

Look forward to this every week. Thank You.  

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Usage to date and bye weeks:
 

Lamar Jackson (3)        
Tom Brady (1)          
Daniel Jones (1)        
Dalvin Cook (5)         
Chris Carson (3)        
Latavius Murray (0)       
Duke Johnson (0)   <---- one of many owners I'd guess with $9 dead money here.     
Frank Gore (3)           
Julio Jones (4)        
JuJu Smith-Schuster (3)   
Tyler Lockett (4)      
Deebo Samuel (1)                                                                                               
Josh Gordon (3)                                                  
O.J. Howard (0)     <---- $18 of dead money.  Ouch!   
Mark Andrews (4)         
Darren Waller (5)        
Matt Gay (3)             
Daniel Carlson (0)        
Zane Gonzalez (2)        
Dallas Cowboys (3)       
Arizona Cardinals (2)    
Cincinnati Bengals (0)   

I could really use some additional scores from my RBs.  TEs are covering the flex position pretty well, but if OJ Howard continues as dead money, that isn’t going to help me any at all.  And, if my defenses don’t start producing, I’m going to check out soon.  Through 5 weeks (15 games between the three of them) they’ve scored a total of 54 points, or an average of 3.6 points per.  That’s pathetic.  My usable scores have been 7, 2, 5, 7 and 2.  Ugh.

As to byes, I'm in pretty good shape throughout, having no more than three players out any given week, and never two at any one position.

Those sitting out in week 6 are Frank Gore, Darren Waller, and Daniel Carlson (who hasn't scored yet anyway).

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11 hours ago, jdkapow said:

Awards and notable teams of the week.

Missed it by That Much Award: Team 111553 inspired this award: which dead team has come the closest to still being alive? Aaaaand it turns out we’re not really ready for this one. There are 7 teams that died by 0.05 points one week and would otherwise still be alive. I’ll revisit this when/if it gets more interesting.

WOW!  I don't know if I would want to know I was in the running for this award!  

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Usage to date. I've used everyone of my 20 guys but with the bye weeks coming it'll get tough.

Lamar (3), Brady (2)

CMC (4), Kerryon (3), Breida (2), Singletary (2), Duke Johnson (1)

Julio (4), Keenan Allen (4), Gordon (3), Beasley (2), Dede (2), MVS (1)

Andrews (3), Kittle (2)

Piniero (1), Gonzalez (3), Siebert (1)

Jets (4), Bengals (1)

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