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1 hour ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I think it's fair as a benchmark against itself though. Actually when I looked that up in the link Widbill provided I actually suspected the strong approve/disapprove numbers would look different, but actually Trump is doing pretty well there too. - I just keep pointing out that modeling off of Obama 2012 is not necessarily a good thing, Obama lost EVs and percentage in 2012. Trump has to improve on his own 2016.

Can I ask you why your initial lean was this way? Media coverage? This forum? 

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

Wow. You guys really need to expand your news sources. Turn off talk radio and stop reading Breitbart. 

That is completely out of the realm of possibilities for you?  Why is she out doing events constantly?  Why is she still sending tweets like this one 15 mins ago-

Quote

When the Trump administration threatened to pull out of the Iran deal and impose more sanctions last year, it was clear that we'd lose our leverage and Iran would be free to do what it wanted. Predictably, Iran is now exceeding enrichment limits the deal once imposed.

 

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3 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

That is completely out of the realm of possibilities for you?  Why is she out doing events constantly?  Why is she still sending tweets like this one 15 mins ago-

Completely and absolutely out of the realm of possibility that Hillary will run again. There is no law that she had to retire from public life after she lost the 2016 election or refrain from making statements on Twitter. She can still help Democratic candidates and raise money which is why is in demand and is doing events.

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16 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

That is completely out of the realm of possibilities for you?  Why is she out doing events constantly?  Why is she still sending tweets like this one 15 mins ago-

 

Probably because she was instrumental in securing a deal that would have protected us from a nuclear Iran for decades, and Trump destroyed it, and she’s pissed off about that? I certainly am. 

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3 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:

Biden’s lead still looks very sizable in any poll I have seen and Harris is a distant 4th.  

Not according to Quinnipiac:

https://www.msnbc.com/am-joy/watch/kamala-harris-surges-to-second-in-new-quinnipiac-poll-63386181929

Kamala Harris surges to second in new Quinnipiac University poll

Senator Kamala Harris surges to second place in new Quinnipiac University poll after the first Democratic presidential debate. Joy and her panel talk about the prospects for the 2020 Democratic nominee and the results of the new poll.

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30 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

Can I ask you why your initial lean was this way? Media coverage? This forum? 

Yep, but let me explain what I was looking for first:

Obama

23% Strongly Approve

41% Strongly Disapprove

******

Trump:

35% Strongly Approve

42% Strongly Disapprove

******

Obama's total on these is 54% (strong one way or another), Trump's is 77%.

That's really what I was interested in. I don't really buy into Ras and I don't really think horse race politics (following who will do better in a given race as a marker for how to treat them), but I did have the impression - just from following news events about Trump - that people felt very strongly about him on both sides.

So even though I didn't mention it I do think I found what I expected there. - What I also thought might be the case - maybe from this forum, and it's a different issue - is that those who support him would not be so much in the Strong Approve number and that there would be more in the Strong Disapprove number. That was not the case.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006
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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

Again you’re not paying attention to what’s actually happening. As I write this, Bernie supporters are defecting in droves to Liz Warren. 

Where are these Bernie Sanders supporters deserting for Liz Warren? First I’ve ever heard of this. 

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There’s basically 2 Democratic races going on right now: One is between Warren and Bernie. Warren is winning. The other is between Biden and Harris. Biden is ahead but Harris is gaining. All of the other candidates are on the outside looking in. Of them, Buttigieg has the best shot at the moment of getting into the contest- but he’s not in it now. 

I expect the winner of Biden vs Harris to be the eventual nominee. I give Warren about a 25% shot though. I give Bernie almost no shot. I think he’s done. 

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1 hour ago, squistion said:

Not according to Quinnipiac:

https://www.msnbc.com/am-joy/watch/kamala-harris-surges-to-second-in-new-quinnipiac-poll-63386181929

Kamala Harris surges to second in new Quinnipiac University poll

Senator Kamala Harris surges to second place in new Quinnipiac University poll after the first Democratic presidential debate. Joy and her panel talk about the prospects for the 2020 Democratic nominee and the results of the new poll.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

I looked at 538 and their most recent polls.  Biden still looks solid.  

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As I've been saying for months, here is the key to Harris: look at South Carolina, look at black votes in South Carolina, look at black votes in other southern states. Up to the debate, all of those numbers have been SOLID for Biden: anywhere from 45-55% and nobody else close. If that stays roughly the same, Biden will be the nominee no matter what else happens. If those numbers for Biden start to go down, and Harris starts to rise, she's got a real shot.

Keep in mind: Harris does not need to win South Carolina. But she needs to prevent Biden from winning there decisively. She needs to at least come close.

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7 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Wait a minute...You mean polls tell different stories?  This just cant be right. Cant be.

I thought Trump and his supporters were celebrating the polls showing how his approval numbers are at a high.  How does it work both ways?

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2 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I'm terrible with political predictions, so here are some more! I predict:

1. Warren will win Iowa.

2. Warren will win New Hampshire.

3. Either Biden or Harris wins South Carolina. if one of them does so decisively, that will be the candidate.

Bold

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1 minute ago, knowledge dropper said:

:no:

She’s 15 and 17 points behind Biden.  Granted she has separated herself from the bottom feeders, but bullying a popular old man will only get her so far.  

At least 2 polls have her within a couple points of Biden. One of them even has her ahead.

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10 minutes ago, timschochet said:

As I've been saying for months, here is the key to Harris: look at South Carolina, look at black votes in South Carolina, look at black votes in other southern states. Up to the debate, all of those numbers have been SOLID for Biden: anywhere from 45-55% and nobody else close. If that stays roughly the same, Biden will be the nominee no matter what else happens. If those numbers for Biden start to go down, and Harris starts to rise, she's got a real shot.

Keep in mind: Harris does not need to win South Carolina. But she needs to prevent Biden from winning there decisively. She needs to at least come close.

It won't. Recall that in 2008 Obama got a lukewarm reception from African Americans early in the polls until they saw that he was a legitimate candidate after winning in Iowa. I think black voters are being equally cautious and pragmatic about Harris at this time.

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11 minutes ago, timschochet said:

As I've been saying for months, here is the key to Harris: look at South Carolina, look at black votes in South Carolina, look at black votes in other southern states. Up to the debate, all of those numbers have been SOLID for Biden: anywhere from 45-55% and nobody else close. If that stays roughly the same, Biden will be the nominee no matter what else happens. If those numbers for Biden start to go down, and Harris starts to rise, she's got a real shot.

Keep in mind: Harris does not need to win South Carolina. But she needs to prevent Biden from winning there decisively. She needs to at least come close.

South Carolina was essentially game over for Bernie in 2016.  The primary slogged on and it was back and forth in some states but it was a deficit he was never going to overcome.

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2 minutes ago, squistion said:

It won't. Recall that in 2008 Obama got a lukewarm reception from African Americans early in the polls until they saw that he was a legitimate candidate after winning in Iowa. I think black voters are being equally cautious and pragmatic about Harris at this time.

Absolutely correct. But- I wouldn't carry this analogy too far. It all depends. Obama represented a first time ever, that won't be repeated. Black voters in the south tend to be pretty conservative: are they willing to vote for a black woman with as much enthusiasm as they did for a black man? Not sure yet. Plus they love Biden. They don't just like him; they love him.They know him and trust him. That's a big deal.

So I honestly have no idea how this will go.

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10 minutes ago, timschochet said:

As I've been saying for months, here is the key to Harris: look at South Carolina, look at black votes in South Carolina, look at black votes in other southern states. Up to the debate, all of those numbers have been SOLID for Biden: anywhere from 45-55% and nobody else close. If that stays roughly the same, Biden will be the nominee no matter what else happens. If those numbers for Biden start to go down, and Harris starts to rise, she's got a real shot.

Keep in mind: Harris does not need to win South Carolina. But she needs to prevent Biden from winning there decisively. She needs to at least come close.

Why would you just take for granted that blacks will come out en masse for a Jamaican over Booker.  

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1 minute ago, knowledge dropper said:

I asked you first.  You pointed out the black vote going to Harris.  Why?

Lots of reasons. The main one being that she was by far the best in the debates. She has a special charisma which other candidates can't match (particularly not Booker IMO.) She's very likeable. And anyone watching her gets the sense that she would simply slice up Trump in a debate, just destroy him.

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7 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Lots of reasons. The main one being that she was by far the best in the debates. She has a special charisma which other candidates can't match (particularly not Booker IMO.) She's very likeable. And anyone watching her gets the sense that she would simply slice up Trump in a debate, just destroy him.

She won’t beat Trump in a debate and has way too many skeletons. The GOP PACs will have a field day.  I don’t see the charisma that you see.  I think that may be some Californian homerism.  

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1 minute ago, knowledge dropper said:

She won’t beat Trump in a debate and has way too many skeletons. The GOP PACs will have a field day.  I don’t see the charisma that you see.  I think that may be some Californian homerism.  

What is the criteria for determining this?

Because actually being able to logically and factually debate a topic os definitely not a Trump strong suit.  If you count lies and attacks as a win...he can do that.

I don't think there is a front runner for the democrats that Trump can just beat on logic and facts of the issues.  He just isn't that good at it.

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1 minute ago, sho nuff said:

What is the criteria for determining this?

Because actually being able to logically and factually debate a topic os definitely not a Trump strong suit.  If you count lies and attacks as a win...he can do that.

I don't think there is a front runner for the democrats that Trump can just beat on logic and facts of the issues.  He just isn't that good at it.

Trump is a master communicator.  He knows how to connect and give the voters what they want to hear.  You underestimate him and overestimate why people watch debates.   

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1 minute ago, knowledge dropper said:

Trump is a master communicator.  He knows how to connect and give the voters what they want to hear.  You underestimate him and overestimate why people watch debates.   

So more perception of a win for his supporters?  Because that doesn't seem like the criteria for an actual debate on the issues.  Moreover it reads like a description of what people already label him as a con man.

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9 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

So more perception of a win for his supporters?  Because that doesn't seem like the criteria for an actual debate on the issues.  Moreover it reads like a description of what people already label him as a con man.

Trump has his own style that plays well with the voters that lead him to victory.   

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29 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:

Why would you just take for granted that blacks will come out en masse for a Jamaican over Booker.  

That will not be an issue for black voters. People on the right will continue to talk about it, as it somehow matters but she will not be looked upon my most AA voters as being less black or as not a real AA because of her Jamaican ancestry.

This is similar to the argument that was raised repeatedly in the Kaepernick thread, that he should not be considered African American or be allowed to speak for AAs because his birth mother was white. However it is a distinction without a difference if you are classified and discriminated against for being perceived as an AA even though your actual racial percentage has 50% or less AA blood.

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Debate winners are hardly sure-thing election winners.

I don't have any numbers to prove it, but watched enough of them to know there's no consistent correlation.

Edited by identikit
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3 minutes ago, identikit said:

Debate winners are hardly sure-thing election winners.

I don't have any numbers to prove it, but watched enough of them to know there's no consistent correlation.

The debate performances of Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Michael Dukakis and Mitt Romney would argue against that premise.

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3 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:
8 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

He bigly proved that when talking about airports recently. He's got the best words. Best in the world. If only he could spell them gud.

He is a big hit in all 57 states. 

Obama: "I said 'fifty-seven' because I hastily combined multiple words in a moment of exhaustion."

Trump: "I said 'airports' because I knew the speech very well."

:mellow:

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29 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:

He is a big hit in all 57 states. 

You found one example. If you really want to do this, it's going to be about as lopsided as finding scientists who acknowledge climate change vs. scientists who deny it.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/03/05/trumps_rambling_cpac_speech_should_alarm_all_of_us_139653.html

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/02/donald-trump-national-emergency-declaration-wall

https://www.vox.com/2018/9/26/17907608/trump-kavanaugh-rosenstein-press-conference-un-nafta-full-text-transcript

He's truly a national embarrassment and this has never been more fitting than for him.

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24 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:

Didn’t people claim Hillary beat Trump (not me)?  How did that turn out?

Yes, but he didn't make a major gaffe in the debates like Ford, Dukakis and Romney. Hillary bested him overall IMO but it, like the Access Hollywood video, his mocking of a disabled man and several other incidents that would have ended the candidacy of any one else but didn't faze those who voted for him.

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

Lots of reasons. The main one being that she was by far the best in the debates. She has a special charisma which other candidates can't match (particularly not Booker IMO.) She's very likeable. And anyone watching her gets the sense that she would simply slice up Trump in a debate, just destroy him.

It was one debate and let’s face it, Joe Biden was too lazy to prep properly . You loved him while you were waving your Biden pom poms but he was horrendous . Everyone on that stage was protected by the loon on the end. Buttigieg did a good job for who he is and let’s not forget the old dnc dirty tricks on Yang

It was a very good moment in 1 debate but don’t underestimate Biden pooping his pants

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1 hour ago, knowledge dropper said:

He is a big hit in all 57 states. 

Desperado...

why don't you come to your senses?
You been out ridin' fences for so long now
Oh, you're a hard one
But I know that you got your reasons
These things that are pleasin' you
Can hurt you somehow

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1 minute ago, HellToupee said:

It was one debate and let’s face it, Joe Biden was too lazy to prep properly . You loved him while you were waving your Biden pom poms but he was horrendous . Everyone on that stage was protected by the loon on the end. Buttigieg did a good job for who he is and let’s not forget the old dnc dirty tricks on Yang

It was a very good moment in 1 debate but don’t underestimate Biden pooping his pants

Agree with all of this.

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  • knowledge dropper changed the title to TRUMP TO INFINITY AND BEYOND HQ - The Great and Positive Place

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