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TRUMP TO INFINITY AND BEYOND HQ - The Great and Positive Place


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5 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

Study of the effect of Tump rallies from Stanford economics professor. RIP Herman Cain.

>>We investigate the effects of large group meetings on the spread of COVID-19 by studying the impact of eighteen Trump campaign rallies. To capture the effects of subsequent contagion within the pertinent communities, our analysis encompasses up to ten post-rally weeks for each event. Our method is based on a collection of regression models, one for each event, that capture the relationships between post-event outcomes and pre-event characteristics, including demographics and the trajectory of COVID-19 cases, in similar counties. We explore a total of 24 procedures for identifying sets of matched counties. For the vast majority of these variants, our estimate of the average treatment effect across the eighteen events implies that they increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents. Extrapolating this figure to the entire sample, we conclude that these eighteen rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19. Applying county-specific post-event death rates, we conclude that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths (not necessarily among attendees).<<

 

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18 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

One thread was left up to mock the President for 4 years and the other about Biden  2 weeks 

:lmao:

Let's be honest.  Everything that flew around here for 4 years will not be allowed as soon as Biden wins. 

And you know the "no victory laps" thing right?  If Biden wins, how many of these guys are going to take victory laps Tuesday night?  Trump wins and one person celebrates and it's probably 3 months off.  Just look at Megla vs GM earlier this week.

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8 minutes ago, Ramblin Wreck said:

Let's be honest.  Everything that flew around here for 4 years will not be allowed as soon as Biden wins. 

And you know the "no victory laps" thing right?  If Biden wins, how many of these guys are going to take victory laps Tuesday night?  Trump wins and one person celebrates and it's probably 3 months off.  Just look at Megla vs GM earlier this week.

Lighten up on the victim playing. We want everyone to be cool after this. Regardless of who wins. TIA. 

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21 minutes ago, Ramblin Wreck said:

Let's be honest.  Everything that flew around here for 4 years will not be allowed as soon as Biden wins. 

And you know the "no victory laps" thing right?  If Biden wins, how many of these guys are going to take victory laps Tuesday night?  Trump wins and one person celebrates and it's probably 3 months off.  Just look at Megla vs GM earlier this week.

I’m certain there are other fantasy football message boards you can post on that cater to free speech, regardless of bigotry or false content, and where you can pretty much call anyone any names you want. You can even start a thread to piss and moan about how unfair it is here and how overrun with liberals it has become. 

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7 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

I’m certain there are other fantasy football message boards you can post on that cater to free speech, regardless of bigotry or false content, and where you can pretty much call anyone any names you want. You can even start a thread to piss and moan about how unfair it is here and how overrun with liberals it has become. 

Be better. Seriously. 

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9 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

I’m certain there are other fantasy football message boards you can post on that cater to free speech, regardless of bigotry or false content, and where you can pretty much call anyone any names you want. You can even start a thread to piss and moan about how unfair it is here and how overrun with liberals it has become. 

Exhibit A

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13 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

What’s wrong with the tweet? Our education system has been in the dumpster for decades. 

Besides the low hanging fruit of that man talking about education?

As far as we need improvement in science, math, critical thinking, reading comprehension, etc..  I would agree with that.   Unless you have a different interpretation of what Patriotic Education would look like, it seems to me like it would be the opposite of a couple of the things I just listed.  

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7 hours ago, Ramblin Wreck said:

Let's be honest.  Everything that flew around here for 4 years will not be allowed as soon as Biden wins. 

And you know the "no victory laps" thing right?  If Biden wins, how many of these guys are going to take victory laps Tuesday night?  Trump wins and one person celebrates and it's probably 3 months off.  Just look at Megla vs GM earlier this week.

Wait, what now? :confused:

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4 hours ago, jerseydevil20 said:

Hmmm. This looking good and it correlates with the tremendous support the President is getting at every one of his rallies.  If this translates to other states Biden is in serious trouble.  Momentum!!!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/6061937002

 

Nobody is expecting Biden to win Iowa.  :shrug: 

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28 minutes ago, Max Power said:

Driving traffic to another FF board? Is that acceptable here?

I’ll take my lumps if so. I think my initial post is harsh and not productive in retrospect. There is a contingent of people who get banned here and get together to coordinate trolling, and then whine when they get timeouts here and claim they aren’t trolling. One guy bragging about having 40 alt accounts banned. As I think it pertains to and affects discussion here, and this particular timeout was brought up by someone upthread, I figured I’d point this out. 

Edited by Snorkelson
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I’ll bow out of this thread, as I’m probably just adding snark and I truly don’t want to be part of the problem. Regardless of who wins this election, we need to find a way to come together, because we will continue to have some of the biggest issues this country has had to face in a long time. The pandemic isn’t going to disappear, the economic toll will take years to recover from, inequities in wealth will become more and more apparent, and whether you believe it’s man made or not, we have an existential threat of a changing climate to react to. Plus China Russia Iran domestic terrorists another novel virus etc. 

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17 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

I’ll take my lumps if so. I think my initial post is harsh and not productive in retrospect. There is a contingent of people who get banned here and get together to coordinate trolling, and then whine when they get timeouts here and claim they aren’t trolling. One guy bragging about having 40 alt accounts banned. As I think it pertains to and affects discussion here, and this particular timeout was brought up by someone upthread, I figured I’d point this out. 

Also the irony of in the few posts I scrolled through i saw people calling each other the R word and other things while claiming what a horrible place this is seems to be lost on them.  

Seem like lovely folks over there.  ;)

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12 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

I’m certain there are other fantasy football message boards you can post on that cater to free speech, regardless of bigotry or false content, and where you can pretty much call anyone any names you want. You can even start a thread to piss and moan about how unfair it is here and how overrun with liberals it has become. 

Posts like this are a huge part of the problem here.     Not a good look at all..come on man be better or this board is probably not for you.

Edited by Summer Wheat
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1 minute ago, fred_1_15301 said:

I've been monitoring a betting site (because I'm sick) and Iowa has been firmly in Trump's territory for quite some time.  :shrug: 

The magnitude of Trump’s advantage and quality of the pollster is what makes that poll notable. States aren’t independent of each other.  If Trump were to win Iowa by 7, it would make me question Biden’s polling leads in other battleground states. 

I suspect it’s an outlier. Their earlier poll in late September showed a tie in IA. Is there reason to believe the race has changed so much in the last month? We’re not seeing such dramatic movement in other polls. Regardless, though, it’s a point of hope for Trump supporters who believe in polling.
 

 

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12 minutes ago, Max Power said:

Interested to see how many outlets/polls come out with CYA articles about how Trump COULD win this thing. 

It seems like an obvious article to write because it’s true. Trump could win. Anyone who states otherwise doesn’t understand polling and statistics.

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6 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

It seems like an obvious article to write because it’s true. Trump could win. Anyone who states otherwise doesn’t understand polling and statistics.

I agree. I just find it interesting that outlets are NOW willing to address the polling factors and Biden campaign errors that some of the right leaning outlets have been pointing out for weeks.

Issues that plenty on these boards have dismissed as "talking points". 

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2 minutes ago, Max Power said:

I agree. I just find it interesting that outlets are NOW willing to address the polling factors and Biden campaign errors that some of the right leaning outlets have been pointing out for weeks.

Issues that plenty on these boards have dismissed as "talking points". 

I haven’t seen this too much personally but I’ve been more interested in the data/stats guys than the partisan talking heads. The stats guys have talked about it a lot. Nate Silver quipped about how he spends 90% of his time thinking about something that will happen 10% of the time.

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18 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

I haven’t seen this too much personally but I’ve been more interested in the data/stats guys than the partisan talking heads. The stats guys have talked about it a lot. Nate Silver quipped about how he spends 90% of his time thinking about something that will happen 10% of the time.

So what is your opinion on statistics? It feels like no matter the side the statistics can be skewed to show favorable to either candidate.

There have been a couple studies now that show trump voters are less likely to answer polls accurately due to fears of being judged or outed. Some here think that is ridiculous, but now we're seeing reporting that polls could be wrong and this is likely a reason why.

 

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1 minute ago, Max Power said:

So what is your opinion on statistics? It feels like no matter the side the statistics can be skewed to show favorable to either candidate.

There have been a couple studies now that show trump voters are less likely to answer polls accurately due to fears of being judged or outed. Some here think that is ridiculous, but now we're seeing reporting that polls could be wrong and this is likely a reason why.

 

Factors like that can play a role in why Trump can win despite the polls usually giving Biden such big leads.  If Trump wins, it will be interesting to read the post-mortems from the pollsters.  The pollsters do make adjustments to their numbers to reflect what they believe are proper samples of voters.  That includes the "shy" Trump voter concept.   

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37 minutes ago, Max Power said:

So what is your opinion on statistics? It feels like no matter the side the statistics can be skewed to show favorable to either candidate.

There have been a couple studies now that show trump voters are less likely to answer polls accurately due to fears of being judged or outed. Some here think that is ridiculous, but now we're seeing reporting that polls could be wrong and this is likely a reason why.

 

I think for the most part polls have been fairly accurate.  They get it wrong sometimes and then try to use historicals to figure out how they got it wrong and adjust for next time.  But for the most part they are correct.

I believe that the pollsters are so worried about what happened in 2016 that they are over adjusting.  I'm one of the few on these boards that think Biden will beat his polls numbers and that this election will not be close.  I just see everything pointing to Trump getting smoked.  Polls, early voting, massive voting numbers, 2018 midterms.  All of these things are favoring the Democrats.  To me this is a case of Occam's razor.  

I have a couple $100 bets with some friends who are positive Trump is going to win.  One of my friend even offered me 3-1 odds (I did not take the odds), but he gets all his news from Conservative channels.

I know anything can happen, but I am generally driven by logic.

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5 minutes ago, Chaz McNulty said:

I think for the most part polls have been fairly accurate.  They get it wrong sometimes and then try to use historicals to figure out how they got it wrong and adjust for next time.  But for the most part they are correct.

I believe that the pollsters are so worried about what happened in 2016 that they are over adjusting.  I'm one of the few on these boards that think Biden will beat his polls numbers and that this election will not be close.  I just see everything pointing to Trump getting smoked.  Polls, early voting, massive voting numbers, 2018 midterms.  All of these things are favoring the Democrats.  To me this is a case of Occam's razor.  

I have a couple $100 bets with some friends who are positive Trump is going to win.  One of my friend even offered me 3-1 odds (I did not take the odds), but he gets all his news from Conservative channels.

I know anything can happen, but I am generally driven by logic.

I'm with you.  The record number of voters coming out are not split 50-50.  Logic would point to a blue landslide.  Trump will have succeeded in uniting this country (against him).  Too many folks are tired of the hate and division he's caused.

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2 minutes ago, Prinefan said:

I'm with you.  The record number of voters coming out are not split 50-50.  Logic would point to a blue landslide.  Trump will have succeeded in uniting this country (against him).  Too many folks are tired of the hate and division he's caused.

I think that Trump incorrectly believes that great rally's won him the 2016 election.  The rally's may have helped a little, but the big factor in 2016 were the undecided voters breaking towards Trump, and the Dems staying home (a large part because of peoples feelings about Hillary).  He captured a huge percentage of these voters and most of them did not go to Trump rally's.

Biden is up a lot more than Hillary was at this point in the election, the number of undecided voters is substantially less, and the polls are showing that this small group is breaking evenly between the candidates.

I just don't get how people can be positive about a Trump win.  I could understand being hopeful but recognizing that its an uphill battle, but there are so many that think without a doubt that Trump will win.

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Some of the attendees at MAGA rallies are repeats, such as this guy and his family who were the first in line at OpaLocka airport in north Miami-Dade (of Amelia Earhart fame). It's his 7th MAGA rally this summer and he's super-excited to see the president yet again. He showed up 14 hours early. The rally is supposed to start at 11:30pm tonight, which means it would likely be in violation of the county midnight curfew. And as usual, attendees are waiving all their legal rights to sue over COVID-19 exposure. 

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1 hour ago, Juxtatarot said:

Factors like that can play a role in why Trump can win despite the polls usually giving Biden such big leads.  If Trump wins, it will be interesting to read the post-mortems from the pollsters.  The pollsters do make adjustments to their numbers to reflect what they believe are proper samples of voters.  That includes the "shy" Trump voter concept.   

I just don't trust the pollsters right now. I think the social bias against Trump support can not be accurately measured. Everyone is giving themselves an out in case they are wrong and I think it speaks to that. 

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5 hours ago, knowledge dropper said:

In their defense the Trump bashing thread was only 2850 pages, 142,456 posts and over 2.5 million views.  

And the Biden thread was only up for 2 weeks?  That's remarkable. What is the point of political discussion without dissenting opinion?  

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  • knowledge dropper changed the title to TRUMP TO INFINITY AND BEYOND HQ - The Great and Positive Place

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