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TRUMP TO INFINITY AND BEYOND HQ - The Great and Positive Place (6 Viewers)
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HellToupee
Footballguy
Wow.
Exactly what would it take for you to lose faith in polls.....specially when Donald Trump is involved?
After 2016, I would be embarrassed to even mention what "the polls say".
When will you learn that polls are generally taken in centers of high populations and centers of high population are generally populated by liberals looking for a hand-out and like to hear themselves talk about their opinions.
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mrip541
Footballguy
Are his numbers in battleground states actually improving? I haven't been keeping track but a glance at rcp doesn't seem to show movement.
mrip541
Footballguy
mmmm from predicting (from poll results) a Clinton win with a certainty of 95% ....to Clinton losing....it would appear their conclusions were off by a bit more that 1%.
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Plus taken at a time where the left is shuttered up in their houses afraid to come out means what, probalaby 20% swing in the polls just based on who's available to answer the phone.
Coupled with what happened in 2016, I am sure that Trump supporters are feed the pollsters what they want to hear.
I would love to see Biden as a "lock" to win according to the polls and then Trump win in a landslide!
I know that if a pollster called me, I'd lie!
Of course, I don't live in a big city...they'll never call me.
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mrip541
Footballguy
My understanding was that the polls showed a late Trump surge with the final polls being very close to the real outcome, which was Clinton taking the popular vote by 2.1%, so within the expected margin of error.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Clinton was killing Trump early in the polls by 8-10 points, then as things got closer to the election she went from up 8-10 point to up 3-5 points. They were off, just a bit to what actually happened. It's why I don't put much stock in polls. When someone gets a phone call and gets asked who they would vote for it's totally different than actually getting out and voting. The Republican primaries showed that people voting for Trump are motivated to GO OUT and actually FOLLOW THROUGH with that vote. He was getting really high voter turnout in an unopposed election, it was crazy.
...and yet somehow, on election night, Clinton was predicted to win by the pollsters and the media...with 95% confidence
Whatever helps you keep believing in polls and keeps your light of hope shining bright...believe that too.
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squistion
Footballguy
I am not sure about that, but Nate Silver of 538 on election eve refused to call the race for Hillary - as per the polls aggregate, he felt that Trump was within the margin of error and could still pull it off, which he did. Also the polls reflected pretty accurately what was the actual popular vote.
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...yeah...in the popular vote.
She won California and NY....a few times over.
Numbers that added to the total yet had nothing to do with the results
The polls were wrong in many, many states
Look...you can defend polls all you want if it gives you hope but there is only one poll that counts.
The rest are simply fluff.
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Well, maybe 3-5 states, though I wonder about that. Is anyone really familiar with Wisconsin polling in 2016? Is anyone now?
Why is this so confusing? Yes, polls that said Hillary would win by 3% nationally were right. Yes, people consumed by horserace politics (I plead guilty) were wrong to assume MI, WI & PA were in the bag. Don't make the same mistake. No one should care (well maybe a little) about enthusiasm for Trump or Biden nationally. What's Dem enthusiasm in Philly and Detroit? How is GOP enthusiasm in Phoenix and Pittsburgh suburbs? IIRC 2016 came down to like 250 (?) counties.
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Sure, they had to correct the numbers the best they could as the absentee and exit poll numbers were being reported.
Hillary was too arrogant to go to those states. Biden is in such decline he can't even get out of the basement. They are already in the bag for the Repubs this time around.
ETA: And for frequent posters like yourself we are going to have to check your "credentials" here. TIA
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Bucsfan5493
Footballguy
This is a fair point but you also need to factor in how much Trump is hated by people. I’d imagine when you factor that in the numbers would be very similar. For example, I’m not motivated to vote for Biden but I am motivated to get Trump out of office. I’m actually officially registering to vote for the first time ever tomorrow. If Trump wasn’t an option there’s a very strong chance I just wouldn’t have voted or gone 3rd party.
supermike80
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
It is not just Nate Silver working by himself, 538 tracks all the polls and has a pretty good (but not infallible) track record
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008 as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver
Silver was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009 after an election forecasting system he developed successfully predicted the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election.[5] In the 2012 United States presidential election, the forecasting system correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[6]
You have to go back to 2012 because they wished they could take that award away from him after 2016.
supermike80
Footballguy
Yeah. One source. Polls are biased, generally unreliable and a waste of time.
Of course that's my pinion. But there is enough evidence to support my position. IF you are willing to look at all polls and not just the ones you agree with.
Why is that?
My, albeit rusty, recollection was that 538 gave Trump the best chance of winning of any of the media outlets.
squistion
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
Your recollection is correct (and it should be remembered that the Trump campaign itself did not expect to win, as evidenced by the fact they didn't bother in advance to draft a campaign acceptance speech).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver
2016 U.S. elections[edit]
Main article: FiveThirtyEight: 2016 U.S. elections
In the week leading up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the FiveThirtyEight team predicted that Hillary Clinton had a 64.5% chance of winning the election. Their final prediction on November 8, 2016, gave Clinton a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election,[89] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.[90][91] Donald Trump won the election. FiveThirtyEight argued it projected a much higher chance (29%) of Donald Trump winning the presidency than other pollsters,[90] a projection which was criticized days before the election by Ryan Grim of The Huffington Post as "unskewing" too much in favor of Trump.[92]
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I can tell you here in Philly, it's very Democratic. They will vote Democrat even against their best interest. But the leadership of Gov. Wolf, Mayor Kenney and DA Larry Krasner has people starting to get pissed with the Democratic leadership here in Philly and the close suburbs. Obama in 2012 got 588,000 votes in Philly vs. 96,000 for Romney. In 2016, Hillary got 560,000 vs Trumps 105,000. My guess is Trump beats the 105,000 votes here in Philly. Does Biden get more than the 560,000 Hillary got? His ceiling is Obama's 588,000 but I don't think he sniffs that. At best you could see a return of the results of 2008 where Obama got 574,000 votes vs. 113,000 for McCain. So basically, a negligible increase for Biden at best, but I'm not sure Biden reaches 570,000. Looking at the results maps in PA the areas north of Philly matter more. They were blue for Obama and red for Trump.
EDIT: Trump won PA by 78,000 votes. Biden is going to need way more than a bump in Philly. Gov. Wolf is doing his best to get people to vote Republican in November.
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
You guys seem to be spending a lot of time trying to reassure each other why these polls don’t matter or are wrong (or in the case of one of you, why NO polls matter and they’re ALL wrong.) Why not just embrace reality?
Let me offer an example: I am for pretty much wide open immigration to this country. At least 70% of Americans, both Republican and Democrat, disagree with me on this. So I’m not going to get what I want and the issue is a political loser for me. It’s always going to be a loser for me unless the public changes their mind about that. I seriously doubt they ever will.
See? Was that so hard? Never once did I have to admit that I am wrong about that issue (I’m not; it’s the majority who’s wrong.) I just had to admit that in terms of public opinion I’m in the minority. I can deal with reality.
Why not just admit: “Hey things look pretty bad for Trump right now. As a Trump supporter I sure hope that changes before November, but right now it doesn’t look good for me.” Why try to argue yourself into knots? Public opinion is what it is.
Let me offer an example: I am for pretty much wide open immigration to this country. At least 70% of Americans, both Republican and Democrat, disagree with me on this. So I’m not going to get what I want and the issue is a political loser for me. It’s always going to be a loser for me unless the public changes their mind about that. I seriously doubt they ever will.
See? Was that so hard? Never once did I have to admit that I am wrong about that issue (I’m not; it’s the majority who’s wrong.) I just had to admit that in terms of public opinion I’m in the minority. I can deal with reality.
Why not just admit: “Hey things look pretty bad for Trump right now. As a Trump supporter I sure hope that changes before November, but right now it doesn’t look good for me.” Why try to argue yourself into knots? Public opinion is what it is.
supermike80
Footballguy
Because I guarantee I can find a poll that shows Trump is not looking bad.
Are your partisan binders that restrictive you cant acknowledge that?
Was that SO hard to admit?
timschochet
Footballguy
I will say this: I do believe that Pennsylvania will decide the election. If Trump wins that state, it’s likely he wins the election.
timschochet
Footballguy
Sure you can. Start with Rasmussen. And there are a few other outliers.
But the majority of polls reflect clearly that Trump is in deep trouble.
supermike80
Footballguy
Not gonna have the same fight with you man. Joe already told me to stop. You're wrong and you're biased and this conversation cannot continue.
HellToupee
Footballguy
Tim you are Charlie Browns teacher in this thread
Wah wah woh wah wah
Wah wah woh wah wah
timschochet
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
Sorry you feel that way. If you believe you can’t continue the conversation without personal attacks, then you’re right to stop. Best of luck.
timschochet
Footballguy
You could be right but I don’t believe President Trump shares your opinion. He did everything he could to destroy Biden before the primaries, (for which he was rightfully impeached) and then tried to promote Bernie at every opportunity. Biden is the one guy Trump didn’t want to face.
Bucsfan5493
Footballguy
https://twitter.com/davidmackau/status/1263516997746405379?s=21
Trump supporters want to say Biden’s mental decline is a reason we shouldn’t vote for him yet this is the other option and the guy that they worship? Good god
Trump supporters want to say Biden’s mental decline is a reason we shouldn’t vote for him yet this is the other option and the guy that they worship? Good god
Thunderlips
Footballguy
What's this assumption based on? 2016 or the 2018 elections?
I'd imagine that Trump carried 2016 based on a combination of traditional Republican values, being a newcomer, Democratic fatigue and Hillary hate.
2018 showed that once Hillary (arguably right there with Trump as the most liked/disliked National political candidate of the past 40 years) was out of the picture and Trump wasn't the newcomer and actually had a political record......his party suffered.
What have Trump/Republicans done since 2018 that mitigates some of the hate/concern over his leadership methods that helped flip the script from 16 to 18?
Trey
Footballguy
Hillary runs circles around Biden in every conceivable way. As I mentioned earlier, I have no idea how this man is the nominee.
That said, the way he is discussed is very similar to how those on "my side" talk about Trump. "He's this, he's that. How does this appeal to anyone?"
And then suddenly you wake up one day and he's the President.
Wouldn't be shocked if that is what happens with Biden.
Trey
Footballguy
The suburbs however are an absolute mine field for Rs in the time of Trump however. I'd imagine bumping Philadelphia city turnout and then peeling away more of the educated white vote in the suburbs is the entire Biden playbook.
Obama net about 62k more votes than Romney in Bucks/Chester/Montgomery in 2012.
Clinton net about 120k more votes than Trump in those same counties in 2016.
The biggest piece of the puzzle here is how much further can Ds fall in the rural rest of the state. Clinton still carries PA with Obama '12 rural margins. The bottom totally fell out there however leading to the narrow Trump win.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Mid-terms usually don't end up to well for the party that wins the general election. There is usually a lack of enthusiasm for the winning party and a wave for the losing party. Obama lost 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats. He did ok in 2012. Clinton lost 54 House and 10 Senate seats. He did ok. Trump lost 40 House seats and GAINED 2 Senate seats. So he definitely did better in the mid-terms than either of those two guys. Going back 100 years only FDR and Bush II didn't lose seats in their first mid-term. 2018 isn't even relevant for 2020 IMO.
I base my thoughts on the voter turnout in the primaries. This isn't the article I wanted to link but it's good enough. The one I read the other day had charts and percentages of voter turnout in the primaries that showed a larger percentage of Republicans turned out to vote in the primaries than Democrats. But this article is a symptom of the enthusiasm problems Biden has and why I think he's going to lose in November.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/2020-democratic-primary-turnout-problems-960784/
squistion
Footballguy
Yes, I was just about to post this - and we keep hearing that Biden can't string two coherent sentences together.https://twitter.com/davidmackau/status/1263516997746405379?s=21
Trump supporters want to say Biden’s mental decline is a reason we shouldn’t vote for him yet this is the other option and the guy that they worship? Good god
Trump this morning on not having the coronavirus:
"And I tested very positively in another sense. So this morning, I tested positively toward negative, right? So no, I tested perfectly this morning. Meaning I tested negative. But that's a way of saying it. Positively toward the negative."
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knowledge dropper
Footballguy
I am going to love Joe’s reaction when he sees Corn Pop sitting in the front row of the debate as a guest of Trump
squistion
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
knowledge dropper
Footballguy
Does Biden even have a platform? Any fresh ideas?
knowledge dropper
Footballguy
Great addition to Team Trump in the pennant race
https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/05/21/report-karl-rove-advising-trumps-reelection-campaign/
https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/05/21/report-karl-rove-advising-trumps-reelection-campaign/
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I'm sure Trump will make that a campaign slogan.Yes, I was just about to post this - and we keep hearing that Biden can't string two coherent sentences together.
Trump this morning on not having the coronavirus:
"And I tested very positively in another sense. So this morning, I tested positively toward negative, right? So no, I tested perfectly this morning. Meaning I tested negative. But that's a way of saying it. Positively toward the negative."
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Max Power
Footballguy
Bringing back record players. Proposing solar-powered ports to land locked states.
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