Team JWB:
1.3 Travis Kelce, TE, KC - Drafted as TE1. Finished last season as TE1 and the #1 overall scorer excluding TMQB, so he should be about as good a value as is possible to draft at this position. Playoff points seem very likely.
In the first round, my only concern was whether Kelce and Ertz would go 1-2, since I saw them as easily the top two picks in this format. Thankfully, neither of them were picked before me, so I had my choice. Planned to go WR-WR at the next turn, and hoped unrealistically for Keenan Allen.
2.14 Adam Thielen, WR, MIN - Drafted as WR13. Finished last season as WR7, despite the fact that MIN did not make the playoffs. Feels like a great value here, even though playoff points seem unlikely.
3.3 Julian Edelman, WR, NE - Drafted as WR14. Finished last season as WR13, despite missing the first 4 regular season games, and was WR11 in ppg. It seems reasonable to expect Edelman to be Brady's top target again. Playoff points seem very likely.
My objective in the first few rounds is to try to target safe players, and I think I did that here. I also want to focus almost exclusively on TE and WR, unless incredible value presents itself at RB. Would not consider any TMQB this early. Tentatively planned on 1 RB and 1 TE/WR at the next turn.
4.14 Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN - Drafted as WR24. Finished last season as WR19, playing in 14 games. He actually averaged more ppg in the games AJ Green played than in those he didn't, so Green possibly playing most of the season shouldn't hurt Boyd much, if at all.
5.3 Allen Robinson, WR, CHI - Drafted as WR26. Finished last season as WR31, playing in 14 games. He tore his ACL in the first game of the 2017 season, so he missed a lot of time last offseason, his first with Chicago. He should be healthier and in better sync with Nagy and Trubisky this season, so his production could improve. Playoff points seem likely.
Was hoping for Mack, Michel, or Carson at 4.14, but all were taken within the 7 picks before mine, so felt Boyd was the best value on the board. Would have considered James White at 5.3, but he went at 5.2. No compelling TE value, so came out of this turn with 2 WRs. Hoped to get 2 of Coleman, Guice, Ekeler at the next turn.
6.14 Tevin Coleman, RB, SF - Drafted as RB31. Finished last season as RB21. Surprised he made it back to me here. Should be the lead RB in SF this season.
7.3 Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC - Drafted as RB33. Finished last season as RB25, despite missing 2 games. It seems likely that Gordon will actually hold out into the season, but Ekeler is good value at this position even if he doesn't. If Gordon does hold out, Ekeler should be great value here. Playoff points seem very likely. As a Chargers fan, glad to have one of my favorite players on board.
Happy that Coleman, Guice, and Ekeler all made it back and felt comfortable letting Ekeler slide to 7.3, with Guice as a fallback. With 2 RBs, 4 WRs, and a TE, definitely wanted a TE at the next turn.
8.14 Ravens, TMQB, BAL - Drafted as TMQB19. Finished last season as TMQB17, but from week 11 (when Jackson became the starter) to week 21, BAL was the #10 TMQB. It is reasonable to expect that Jackson will be better this season, in which case BAL could finish as a top 10 TMQB. Playoff points are possible.
9.3 Gerald Everett, TE, LAR - Drafted as TE27. Finished last season as TE21, but was TE12 from week 9 to week 21, despite scoring only 9 points total in 3 playoff games. He is in a crowded offense, but I expect him to score more points in his third season if he stays healthy. Playoff points seem very likely.
I waited later than I usually do to draft my second TE, but I think it worked out well. There was a big QB run between 7.3 and 8.14, with 12 TMQBs taken in 26 picks. So I felt I had to get on the board with one of the last ones with high upside potential. Figured I might get my next one at the next turn, if I could get one before the next tier drop.
10.14 Stephen Gostkowski, PK, NE - Drafted as PK3. Finished last season PK4, the first time he finished outside the top 3 in this format since 2010, and he was only 1 point behind Tucker at #3. Gostkowski is arguably the safest PK pick in the league given his history and the likelihood of multiple playoff games.
11.3 Bengals, TMQB, CIN - Drafted as TMQB24. Finished last season as TMQB17, despite the fact that Dalton got hurt and Jeff Driskel had to start the last 5 games. In weeks 1 to 12, with Dalton starting, CIN was the #15 TMQB. That was under Marvin Lewis, who has now been replaced by Zac Taylor, who was an offensive coach under Sean McVay the past few seasons. All things considered, it seems very likely the Bengals TMQB will outperform this draft position, maybe by a lot, and it appeared to me there was a significant dropoff to all of the remaining TMQBs after CIN.
I like to draft my first PK a bit early in this format so I only need 1 more if a PK run starts, especially drafting near a turn, with 26 picks in between my odd and even round picks. I don't want to get stuck with a zero at PK, as 1 or more teams typically do in this league. Since a few had been drafted, wanted to get started. With 7 picks to go, needed 2 RBs, 1 WR, 1 PK, 2 DSTs, and 1 Flex. Figured I would likely punt RBs to later and target PK and best non-RB value at the next turn. Was expecting a run on PK before my next pick.
12.14 Golden Tate, WR, NYG - Drafted as WR67. Finished last season as WR24, despite being traded midseason to PHI, at which point his production understandably dropped off. Over the past 5 seasons, he has averaged 13.9 ppg in this format, and I see no reason he cannot carry that forward in New York, with Beckham's departure vacating 124 targets. Tate will miss 4 games due to suspension, but applying that average across 12 games projects to 167 points, which would have been good for WR36 last season. Happy to get him this late.
13.3 Mason Crosby, PK, GB - Drafted as PK15. Finished last season as PK8. He is a slight risk, since the team brought in another PK for competition, but I expect Crosby to win that competition. If so, this achieves my goal of not getting stuck on the wrong end of the PK list. Playoff points are possible.
In retrospect, I drafted my PKs a bit too early. In past A2 drafts, I seem to recall there was typically a significant run on PKs earlier than the late 15th/early 16th rounds, which is where it came this year. Looking forward, I had several RBs in mind and planned to get my 3rd at the next turn if any of them were still available. And probably my first DST.
14.14 Geoff Swaim, TE, JAC - Drafted as TE32. Finished last season as TE37 playing for Dallas, but he missed 7 games. He was TE24 in ppg. He now looks to be the starter for the Jaguars and should get a healthy target share there. Expecting 100+ points here if he stays healthy, which is great value at this point in the draft.
15.3 Mike Davis, RB, CHI - Drafted as RB61. Finished last season as RB35, despite sharing the backfield with Carson and Penny. Now he will share with rookie Montgomery and Cohen. While SEA was #1 in RB touches last season, CHI was #5, not too far off. Potential for 100 points from a RB in the 15th round, another great value.
Couldn't pass up Swaim for a RB who will probably score 50 fewer points or for a DST. At this point, I decided my last pick would be on RB and I would take 2 DSTs at the next turn.
16.14 Seahawks, DST, SEA - Drafted as DST20. Finished last season as DST11. Always happy to draft a SEA defense under Carroll. Playoff points are possible. Hoping for a repeat of last year's 150 points.
17.3 Redskins, DST, WAS - Drafted as DST24. Finished last season as DST15. Hoping for a repeat of last year's 140 points.
As planned. Hoped Malcolm Brown or Jamaal Williams would make it back to my final pick, but did not expect that, and they didn't.
18.14 Rex Burkhead, RB, NE - Drafted as RB69. Finished last season as RB56 and has generally found a productive role when healthy the past few seasons. Hoping for 50+ points.
I liked drafting from the #3 spot. Hopefully I will still like it once the season plays out.