EBF
Footballguy
One of the worst feelings in FF is taking the guy you are "supposed to" take and then watching your team crash and burn while the players you really wanted thrive. FF is pretty volatile and things rarely work out as cleanly as preseason rankings would have you believe. That's why I don't have a big problem with reaching as long as it's not excessive. If you know for sure that a guy will fall to your next pick then you might want to let him slide, but if you're within 10-15 picks of his ADP then you might not have another chance at him, so it could be worth taking a shot. There's a nice middle ground between trusting your gut and taking insane, unnecessary gambles.I have no problem with drafting the way you did. Mixon would not have been there round 2 and you got Evans. Engram was appropriate. I like targeting Fuller.
If you draft by ADP then just set yourself to auto draft. what's the point in looking at a list and taking guys you're supposed to take because that's where everyone else has them? I use ADP to give me an idea of about where guys I like go. then I go get them, and maybe it's a half a round early but who cares? I'd rather draft a guy I really want a half a round early than miss out completely
I see Mixon as a reasonable choice anywhere between 5-15. Some posts in this thread have emphasized his question marks, but there's also a lot of upside since he only had 237 carries last season and ranked outside the top 10 in rushing TDs despite finishing near the top in big plays. A slight uptick in touches and/or TDs could see his total points rise quite a bit, and they were already respectable last season. A dip in YPC or touches could see his totals fall, so ultimately it may come down to how much faith you have in the player.
I'm a believer in the talent and that's why he made sense to me at a high ADP ahead of some guys whose warts and question marks bother me more. It's not like Zeke (holdout), Bell (out of football, new team), Gurley (health?), Chubb (relatively unproven), Cook (injuries + never produced a good season), and DJ (terrible in 2018) are mortal locks to have a good year. Any one of these guys can burn you, so picking from that group may to come down to whose question marks bother you the least.