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Mixon at 1.05?


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6 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

I have no problem with drafting the way you did. Mixon would not have been there round 2 and you got Evans. Engram was appropriate. I like targeting Fuller.

 

If you draft by ADP then just set yourself to auto draft. what's the point in looking at a list and taking guys you're supposed to take because that's where everyone else has them? I use ADP to give me an idea of about where guys I like go. then I go get them, and maybe it's a half a round early but who cares? I'd rather draft a guy I really want a half a round early than miss out completely 

One of the worst feelings in FF is taking the guy you are "supposed to" take and then watching your team crash and burn while the players you really wanted thrive. FF is pretty volatile and things rarely work out as cleanly as preseason rankings would have you believe. That's why I don't have a big problem with reaching as long as it's not excessive. If you know for sure that a guy will fall to your next pick then you might want to let him slide, but if you're within 10-15 picks of his ADP then you might not have another chance at him, so it could be worth taking a shot. There's a nice middle ground between trusting your gut and taking insane, unnecessary gambles.

I see Mixon as a reasonable choice anywhere between 5-15. Some posts in this thread have emphasized his question marks, but there's also a lot of upside since he only had 237 carries last season and ranked outside the top 10 in rushing TDs despite finishing near the top in big plays. A slight uptick in touches and/or TDs could see his total points rise quite a bit, and they were already respectable last season. A dip in YPC or touches could see his totals fall, so ultimately it may come down to how much faith you have in the player.

I'm a believer in the talent and that's why he made sense to me at a high ADP ahead of some guys whose warts and question marks bother me more. It's not like Zeke (holdout), Bell (out of football, new team), Gurley (health?), Chubb (relatively unproven), Cook (injuries + never produced a good season), and DJ (terrible in 2018) are mortal locks to have a good year. Any one of these guys can burn you, so picking from that group may to come down to whose question marks bother you the least.

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Classic oppty to apply a tier-based drafting strategy.

I'd much rather walk away with an elite WR or even Kelce...then start seeing which RB's fall and/or BPA beginning in the 2nd round.

Taking Mixon seems like forcing an RB-heavy draft instead of adapting to what the draft slot is giving you.

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27 minutes ago, PhantomJB said:

Classic oppty to apply a tier-based drafting strategy.

I'd much rather walk away with an elite WR or even Kelce...then start seeing which RB's fall and/or BPA beginning in the 2nd round.

Taking Mixon seems like forcing an RB-heavy draft instead of adapting to what the draft slot is giving you.

I’m in this boat. 

I don’t understand the “I started with a WR in another draft so I had to start with a RB in this draft” thing.

right out of the gate you’re trying to force the draft to your will instead of letting the draft come to you.

its not about being a slave to ADP or projections or even tiers. It’s about maximizing on value. If a player slips to you & you’re not in a position to take advantage of that, you’re missing on value. 

I’ve seen the comment several times that it sucks to take the player “you’re supposed to take” & end up missing the guy you wanted who blows up on someone else’s team. 

First, that’s purely anecdotal/hypothetical. The guy you wanted could also be a monumental bust on someone else’s team. Missing Bell by 1 pick last year saved my season.

secondly, it also sucks to reach for a player & have value fall to you but you’re not able to take advantage because you went a specific direction, putting you behind the 8-ball all draft.

in my earlier years in fantasy sports I targeted players.

now I target tiers. My best drafts are fluid & I'm able to adjust on the fly to take advantage of opportunities within the flow of the draft. 

A leaf in a high water rapids will flow on down, while a branch will be smashed to pieces. I’d always rather be the leaf. ;) 

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Looking at a current adp list I saw Mixon 18 and Cook 19 giving each probably close to a 50% chance of sliding to 20 or close enough to keep this fairly simple.

Taking actual names out of it. If I am picking 5th and my top 4 are off the board but my 5th has about a 50% chance of being there with my next pick. I'm probably taking my 6th player (assuming his adp is more in line with where I have him ranked). This will give me about a 50% chance of having my 5 and 6 after two rounds with about a 50% chance of having my 6 and say 15. If I take my 5 I almost certainly end up with my 5 and 15.

Thinking of it this way. If you had your 5 and 15 and someone offered you a trade. He is willing to trade you your 6. You flip a coin if it's heads you give up your 5. If it's tails you give up your 16. I'm taking that chance any time.

However if my number 1 or 2  player fell to 5 I would grab him there. That's not a risk I would take.

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12 minutes ago, MrSoup said:

Not touching ANY Bengals players as long as Andy Dalton is their QB. 

 Seems I was being generous with their “bottom five OL“… The latest ranking I see has them at 31st. 

 That’s… Not awesome. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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7 minutes ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Can you stop being a jerk?  This had nothing to do with bragging or showing my team or anything.  If it were that, I would have started a thread about my high stakes team which I've done in the past.  My god, man. I used to like you, but you are sure coming off like a d bag.  You keep finding ways to pick on this thread yet you've posted more than anyone else including myself.  If this thread bothers you so much, why spend so much time posting in it?  Because you need to argue and/or be 'right' about something only you have in your head?  

Despite what you think, this thread was very innocent.  I was preparing for a draft, had a thought about Mixon being a top 5 RB basically and started a thread about that notion since he's flying under the radar.  It's really that simple.  I had no other motive.  Maybe if my thread title would have been "Mixon a top 5 RB?" you would have been more chill? You seem overly engaged for no reason other than to argue.  I've been a board member since 2008 and have about 3,300 posts in that time, hardly anything that's attention whoring as you're hinting at.  Meanwhile you joined in 2016 and have over 12k posts.  It seems clear you need to back away from the computer my man.  

:rolleyes: 

So weird that I’m not the only one who called you on that yet I’m the one you’re fixated on & making personal attacks against.

I was actually thoughtful and engaging in here, but you had no interest in a discussion.

you're on ignore now. Also people who obsess over post counts are ridiculous. 👍🏼

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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5 hours ago, PhantomJB said:

Classic oppty to apply a tier-based drafting strategy.

I'd much rather walk away with an elite WR or even Kelce...then start seeing which RB's fall and/or BPA beginning in the 2nd round.

Taking Mixon seems like forcing an RB-heavy draft instead of adapting to what the draft slot is giving you.

I see your point, but I also don't think WR is that top-heavy right now. You can wait until round 2-3 and get guys like Evans, Hilton, and Thielen who are reliable and have multiple strong seasons in recent years. A combination like Mixon + Evans may provide more total value than a combination like Julio + Fournette even though Julio is better than Evans. I generally like a BPA approach, but you also need to be realistic about having a viable lineup each week and identifying tier dropoffs so you don't get stuck with garbage in a mandatory starting position. This year I'd probably default towards a RB/WR/WR strategy in the first three rounds because it fits how I see the dropoffs and available players.

Anyway, with my first pick I am not necessarily looking to win the draft, but rather lock up a starting position with a guy who should be solid. If I decide that I like the WR depth in rounds 2-3 then I may go RB in the 1st even if it's not the best VBD pick in a vacuum. As far as Mixon goes, he makes sense around that territory because he's unlikely to be a colossal flop, yet has some latent upside that he hasn't realized yet. I don't see him being a pick that costs you the league. He makes sense after the top guys are gone, but I wouldn't fault someone for going with Julio/Hopkins/OBJ if they feel like they can grab some good RBs later.

Personally, I like Ingram and J Jacobs this year a couple rounds behind Mixon, but I'd much rather have them as a RB2 than be relying on either to carry my FF team's RB position. I think I'd really want to come out of round 1 with a solid three-down back this year in PPR redrafts, but that's just my preference. If you like the rounds 2-5 options and you get your projections right then certainly nabbing a top WR can work for you.

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29 minutes ago, EBF said:

I see your point, but I also don't think WR is that top-heavy right now. You can wait until round 2-3 and get guys like Evans, Hilton, and Thielen who are reliable and have multiple strong seasons in recent years. A combination like Mixon + Evans may provide more total value than a combination like Julio + Fournette even though Julio is better than Evans. I generally like a BPA approach, but you also need to be realistic about having a viable lineup each week and identifying tier dropoffs so you don't get stuck with garbage in a mandatory starting position. This year I'd probably default towards a RB/WR/WR strategy in the first three rounds because it fits how I see the dropoffs and available players.

Anyway, with my first pick I am not necessarily looking to win the draft, but rather lock up a starting position with a guy who should be solid. If I decide that I like the WR depth in rounds 2-3 then I may go RB in the 1st even if it's not the best VBD pick in a vacuum. As far as Mixon goes, he makes sense around that territory because he's unlikely to be a colossal flop, yet has some latent upside that he hasn't realized yet. I don't see him being a pick that costs you the league. He makes sense after the top guys are gone, but I wouldn't fault someone for going with Julio/Hopkins/OBJ if they feel like they can grab some good RBs later.

Personally, I like Ingram and J Jacobs this year a couple rounds behind Mixon, but I'd much rather have them as a RB2 than be relying on either to carry my FF team's RB position. I think I'd really want to come out of round 1 with a solid three-down back this year in PPR redrafts, but that's just my preference. If you like the rounds 2-5 options and you get your projections right then certainly nabbing a top WR can work for you.

Yeah. Those are good thoughts. If it's Chubb (vs. Mixon) then I'm totally on board with you. That's where I see the tier break. 

But through the middle of the first round I'm looking for rock solid: proven elite performance, good offense, not a new offense system and minimal injury risk. Mixon fails on two of those IMO (which is interesting since you believe he is solid). I would go with Nuk at #5 in this hypothetical and then slightly overdraft RB's from then on.

Good stuff.

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1 hour ago, EBF said:

I see your point, but I also don't think WR is that top-heavy right now.

I feel like it’s the most top-heavy WR draft in years. 

There’s 8 maybe 9 blue chip WRs & I’m knocking Hilton off the list now. 

Adams

Hopkins

Julio

Juju

OBJ

Hill

Evans

You've got Thielen & Diggs as 1a & 1b, but a lower tier WR1

Then there’s a ton of guys with huge question marks like Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, Cooper, Edelman - age, injury & other issues make them risky plays as your WR1, and even WR2. Upside guys like Lockett, Mike Williams, Robinson Godwin and a couple others who might be great or might not depending on circumstances, health, QB play, etc.  

After that it’s a pretty decent drop-off - lots of potential WR3s with upside.

so while not a desert, the truly elite, dependable WRs with no question marks is about 8-10. Considering 12 teams start 3 ea + flex? I’d says that’s pretty thin compared to RB this year. 

Quote

You can wait until round 2-3 and get guys like Evans, Hilton, and Thielen who are reliable and have multiple strong seasons in recent years. A combination like Mixon + Evans may provide more total value than a combination like Julio + Fournette even though Julio is better than Evans.

Not sure how you’re arriving that that conclusion. Give me the Julio side. I don’t see it. and IMO Mixon has as much chance to make it back as Evans  - can’t bank on Evans being there.  

And at 5 why take Julio in your hypothetical? Adams & Hopkins are on the board. So it’s more likely Hopkins/Fournette. But Fournette is frequently available In the early 3rd, so also a little off. 

And why only take it two deep? You could theoretically go Hopkins/Evans/Fournette, which would seemingly be much more valuable than Mixon/Evans/Lockett 

I get what you’re saying but I’m unconvinced that taking Mixon at 5 can possibly result in comparable value as taking one of the elite WRs.

And as has been mentioned, mixon over Chubb or Cook is already a little questionable. Given the talent around them and better OL, that would seem to offset the slight risk of the unknown like injury history or lack of experience. The talent is pretty even across those 3. So if you’re gonna reach, why do it for the dude on the team with the mediocre QB & terrible OL? 

Quote

I generally like a BPA approach, but you also need to be realistic about having a viable lineup each week and identifying tier dropoffs so you don't get stuck with garbage in a mandatory starting position. This year I'd probably default towards a RB/WR/WR strategy in the first three rounds because it fits how I see the dropoffs and available players.

Anyway, with my first pick I am not necessarily looking to win the draft, but rather lock up a starting position with a guy who should be solid. If I decide that I like the WR depth in rounds 2-3 then I may go RB in the 1st even if it's not the best VBD pick in a vacuum. As far as Mixon goes, he makes sense around that territory because he's unlikely to be a colossal flop, yet has some latent upside that he hasn't realized yet. I don't see him being a pick that costs you the league. He makes sense after the top guys are gone, but I wouldn't fault someone for going with Julio/Hopkins/OBJ if they feel like they can grab some good RBs later.

Personally, I like Ingram and J Jacobs this year a couple rounds behind Mixon, but I'd much rather have them as a RB2 than be relying on either to carry my FF team's RB position. I think I'd really want to come out of round 1 with a solid three-down back this year in PPR redrafts, but that's just my preference. If you like the rounds 2-5 options and you get your projections right then certainly nabbing a top WR can work for you.

I don’t disagree with any of this part. On board totally though if I were at 5 I’d strongly consider locking up 2 elite WRs & stacking up on the value backs like Montgomery, Carson, DWill, etc. 

In a game where creating positional advantages gives you an edge, I see great value in being able to obtain 2 blue chip WRs. It also allows you a little breathing room at the position to gamble on upside guys; since you really only need to hit on 1-2 of them for a viable WR3 & BYE/injury replacement. 

Same reason people take Kelce or Mahomes in the 1st/2nd respectively to gain a positional advantage. With Adams/Evans or Hopkins/OBJ you’ve likely got an advantage at WR every week.

 But that’s personal preference. I won’t fault you for going RB1/WR/WR, but I certainly wouldn’t make Mixon my guy over Chubb or Cook. 

But that’s also personal preference. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I feel like it’s the most top-heavy WR draft in years. 

There’s 8 maybe 9 blue chip WRs & I’m knocking Hilton off the list now. 

Adams

Hopkins

Julio

Juju

OBJ

Hill

Evans

You've got Thielen & Diggs as 1a & 1b, but a lower tier WR1

 

Right, so if there are 8-9 strong WR1s then it diminishes the value of having any specific one of them. That's more incentive for passing on your first choice WR in round one and scooping up the leftovers in R2-3. Unless you think one of these guys is going to go nuclear this year, there's not necessarily a huge obvious incentive for having OBJ/Hopkins/MT over the likes of Thielen/Hill/Evans. You could almost flip them and the ADP would make sense. 

As far as Mixon goes, I think I'm just higher on his ability than most. Loved his film at Oklahoma. Thought he was the best back in his draft. 4.9 YPC last season and finished tied with Zeke/Gurley/Chubb for 2nd place behind Saquon in 20+ yard rushes. Great receiver too. People just haven't caught up to how good he is yet and maybe that's why the thought of him as an elite guy seems weird to them. I already see him as on that Zeke/Bell/DJ type of level as a three down back. 

Other backs in his ADP range have their merits and I wouldn't feel bad about drafting Chubb onto my FF team, but as I said previously, you can nitpick any of the backs outside the first tier, so it mainly comes down to which warts bother you and which don't. For example, you mention Cook and Chubb as alternatives to Mixon, but they each carry question marks of their own. They have as many 1,000 yard rushing seasons as Josh Jacobs so far. The veterans like Bell, DJ, and Zeke also have their issues. Any pick you make is a leap of faith in some way.  

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25 minutes ago, EBF said:

Right, so if there are 8-9 strong WR1s then it diminishes the value of having any specific one of them. That's more incentive for passing on your first choice WR in round one and scooping up the leftovers in R2-3. Unless you think one of these guys is going to go nuclear this year, there's not necessarily a huge obvious incentive for having OBJ/Hopkins/MT over the likes of Thielen/Hill/Evans. You could almost flip them and the ADP would make sense. 

As far as Mixon goes, I think I'm just higher on his ability than most. Loved his film at Oklahoma. Thought he was the best back in his draft. 4.9 YPC last season and finished tied with Zeke/Gurley/Chubb for 2nd place behind Saquon in 20+ yard rushes. Great receiver too. People just haven't caught up to how good he is yet and maybe that's why the thought of him as an elite guy seems weird to them. I already see him as on that Zeke/Bell/DJ type of level as a three down back. 

Other backs in his ADP range have their merits and I wouldn't feel bad about drafting Chubb onto my FF team, but as I said previously, you can nitpick any of the backs outside the first tier, so it mainly comes down to which warts bother you and which don't. For example, you mention Cook and Chubb as alternatives to Mixon, but they each carry question marks of their own. They have as many 1,000 yard rushing seasons as Josh Jacobs so far. The veterans like Bell, DJ, and Zeke also have their issues. Any pick you make is a leap of faith in some way.  

That’s fair,  but I also think it’s more valuable to try to land 2 WRs vs RB/WR due to that same drop-off.

We know a team is likely to take Kelce, and it’s possible a team will take Mahomes in round 2. 

At 5 you likely get dealer’s choice of WR, and if you do go WR, that legit your only shot at 2x top 8 WRs, right?

i feel like that gives your team a value advantage over every other team that goes WR/RB, RB/QB, TE/WR, TE/QB or RB/RB. 

There are so many breakout potential RBs with a number of rookie starters, and guys like Carson, DWill, Coleman, Mack, etc - players on better teams than the Bengals who will likely not be a huge drop-off from Mixon. 

Using your same logic, if you lose little at RB by giving yourself a huge advantage at WR, why reach for Mixon? 

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6 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I don’t mind that. What went 1-8? 

How many teams? 

Didn't think he'd make it back? 

Chubb went 8 no I didn’t think he’d make it back.

I ended up getting Zeke, Mixon, Cook and David Johnson as my Running Backs. Overall there are a few questions but I drafted a strong team with a fairly favorable  playoff schedule.

Tex

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32 minutes ago, BigTex said:

I ended up getting Zeke, Mixon, Cook and David Johnson as my Running Backs. Overall there are a few questions 

I have one...

how did you get 2x first rounders (Zeke / DJ) and 2x second rounders, when you said you took Mixon at 1.09? 

That seems not possible. 

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38 minutes ago, BigTex said:

Chubb went 8 no I didn’t think he’d make it back.

I ended up getting Zeke, Mixon, Cook and David Johnson as my Running Backs. Overall there are a few questions but I drafted a strong team with a fairly favorable  playoff schedule.

Tex

What?

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40 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

What?

Maybe he meant Duke Johnson?

Anyway, I see the projection that the Bengals will have a bad offense this year, and I really don't think that is going to be the case.  I think the defense is going to be atrocious, and they may be garbage time fantasy gold this year.  They have as much talent as Tampa last year, albeit in different positions.  I do believe there will be a more efficient scheme this year than last year, and the O-line is not that much worse than last year, and it even has a chance to improve a bit if it gels and the scheme is right.

That defense, though.  oof.  I like some pieces in the secondary, but the LB are junk and the D-line was neutralized pretty easily last season.  I expect more of the same.  The offense will get plenty of chances with and Mixon will be on the field even when trailing, with some spells by Gio likely.  

All that being said, I was at a live draft weekend, and many were talking about Mixon in the second being too high.  I think a lot of people are down on him, and that just screams value to me.  (see the above post from someone taking him at 2.12).  I would not take him in the first because I have at least a good chance to get him in the second, and if he is not there, there then I follow the value and take someone else I like.  I just don't see the need to reach for him at 1.05.  Now, if you truly believe he will be a top 5 back, then go for it, but realize you are drafting him at his ceiling, and losing out on a top WR in the process.

 

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43 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Yeah, but Zeke, Mixon & Cook?  Even with benefit of the doubt that it was Duke Johnson, that’s still 3 players with a 1st/2nd round ADP. 

I remain baffled. 

 

Maybe people were low on Mixon and Cook.  Its not a plausible start, but isn't impossible.  3rd round reversal in a ten teamer?  I saw Zeke go 1.12 over the weekend.

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9 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Maybe people were low on Mixon and Cook.  Its not a plausible start, but isn't impossible.  3rd round reversal in a ten teamer?  I saw Zeke go 1.12 over the weekend.

And Cook makes it to the 3rd at 3.09?

after his 85 yard TD his ADP jumped like 5 spots. 

I find it improbable. 

And if it is David Johnson, doubly so. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

And Cook makes it to the 3rd at 3.09?

after his 85 yard TD his ADP jumped like 5 spots. 

I find it improbable. 

And if it is David Johnson, doubly so. 

I agree with you.  Just stating a case.  We always see some weird stuff in drafts this time of year.  

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1 minute ago, Caesar said:

I agree with you.  Just stating a case.  We always see some weird stuff in drafts this time of year.  

Oh for sure. 

Especially in live drafts.

off-topic,  but i think FFB has lost something with online drafts. 

Everyone sitting at their computer, staring at a screen, using draft software & spreadsheets open in other windows & no one busting your balls while you pick or yelling “30 seconds, no pressure!” 

We had 12 idiots in my house yesterday, tons of good food & a pony keg. 

People were taking tequila shots & hitting vape pens or burning flowers at the breaks. 

By about round 9 things go a little sideways. Especially with IDP thrown into the mix. People sometimes make worse decisions letting value fall further. I’m guilty of it myself from time to time. 

But in all that drunken chaos, ain’t no way one guy gets Zeke, David Johnson, Mixon & Cook from the 9 hole. No one was that wasted, that early to let that happen. :lol: 

But yeah - I’ll always 100% prefer live, in-person drafts. There’s a charm to pulling stickers and slapping them on the board & getting heckled.

When you steal 3 different manager’s handcuffs as your lottery tickets & you get to actually see them seethe with bitterness - and when they tell you it was a reach, you say cheerfully, “they’re available for trade, so remember where I took them when you make an offer!”

Harder to get bargains online where little flashing lights go off to tell people who’s past their ADP (I’m guessing - I’ve never actually used draft software) :) 

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22 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Oh for sure. 

Especially in live drafts.

off-topic,  but i think FFB has lost something with online drafts. 

Everyone sitting at their computer, staring at a screen, using draft software & spreadsheets open in other windows & no one busting your balls while you pick or yelling “30 seconds, no pressure!” 

We had 12 idiots in my house yesterday, tons of good food & a pony keg. 

People were taking tequila shots & hitting vape pens or burning flowers at the breaks. 

By about round 9 things go a little sideways. Especially with IDP thrown into the mix. People sometimes make worse decisions letting value fall further. I’m guilty of it myself from time to time. 

But in all that drunken chaos, ain’t no way one guy gets Zeke, David Johnson, Mixon & Cook from the 9 hole. No one was that wasted, that early to let that happen. :lol: 

But yeah - I’ll always 100% prefer live, in-person drafts. There’s a charm to pulling stickers and slapping them on the board & getting heckled.

When you steal 3 different manager’s handcuffs as your lottery tickets & you get to actually see them seethe with bitterness - and when they tell you it was a reach, you say cheerfully, “they’re available for trade, so remember where I took them when you make an offer!”

Harder to get bargains online where little flashing lights go off to tell people who’s past their ADP (I’m guessing - I’ve never actually used draft software) :) 

OK.  I'll follow the hijack.  :)

This is so true.  At the live drafts over the weekend, we were routinely getting done with 12 teams, 20 rounds in less than 1:45.  That was with 25 minutes of breaks built in.  Online drafts typically are going at around 2 hours with no breaks.  I don't have that long of an attention span.  

To your original point, FFB has lost something.

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8 minutes ago, Caesar said:

OK.  I'll follow the hijack.  :)

This is so true.  At the live drafts over the weekend, we were routinely getting done with 12 teams, 20 rounds in less than 1:45.  That was with 25 minutes of breaks built in.  Online drafts typically are going at around 2 hours with no breaks.  I don't have that long of an attention span.  

To your original point, FFB has lost something.

We went 27 rounds (IDP) and it took about 5 hours with 3 breaks. 

But we were in a marathon, not a sprint. No one was in a huge hurry - we were on a timer, but breaks ran long, no one cared. 

We were there to enjoy the day. It’s the one Sunday I take off of work every year. Also 3 guys in the league have either an Aug 20 or 19th birthday, so it’s also sort of a birthday party. 

People stayed late to hang out,  bust chops, talk about part seasons/bad beats/etc. 

I don’t know if I’ll ever draft online and enjoy it anywhere near as much. It’s way too mechanical. 

/hijack  

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