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2019 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter daylight
- Start date
TZMarkie
Footballguy
JUSTICE HILL is the ultimate end-of-bench lottery ticket.daylight said:
Note I said........... end of bench. If you need something, go grab it. If you are 0-3 somewhere, address your needs.
But otherwise, Hill is a hold. Hill has all the college tape you would ever need to see AND IS electric. If something happens to Ingram, the FAAB wars will commence to acquire Hill. He is very close to the next JAMAAL CHARLES , but thats just a bit of a comparison for some of you. (I think Charles was as "smart" a runner as I have ever seen at avoiding contact, realize one of Charles' big injuries was actually running out of bounds avoiding a mascot on the sidelines)
Some of the best FF plays never come to fruition, and this one may not. But I am holding, and I am certainly not picking up some WR4 trash (that likely will never start for me) to part with this lotto ticket.
Of course, you could be like a few of my league mates who want a "backup TE" , or a "backup QB"..... but thats not me nor how I look at all this.
I'm trying to stumble into the next league winner at RB, like Hill or one ALEXANDER MATTISON, but I know not everyone agrees with this point of view.
TZM
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Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I mean, Hill is in my post.daylight said:
I did miss Henderson, but I'd have to say trending way down, as he has 2 snaps all season.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
i didn't include guys who are in the "former candidates" list in the first post. however, I can certainly do so. I was mainly trying to gather together the guys that I saw as particularly relevant to track in more organized way than what is in the first post. Maybe as additional guys get a bump, they should just be added in to the stock up list.
Chaka
Footballguy
Fair enough. I think Jones is on the rise regardless. He just seems like the back TB hoped they were getting with that 2nd round pick.
Faust
MVP
RB Jay Ajayi nearing NFL return?
Reported by Ian Rapoport for what it’s worth as Ian takes some deserved flak for getting information wrong at times.
Reported by Ian Rapoport for what it’s worth as Ian takes some deserved flak for getting information wrong at times.
swabs
Footballguy
I’m old enough to remember his fictitious stint with the Texans, so I’ll only believe it when I see it.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
justice hill and darrell henderson cut in my 12 man league......dont have the space to add them......not sure if they are even next man up in redraft....gus and malcolm seem to have those roles
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
thought about both in my league too. in redraft gus over hill for sure at this point imo, hill available in my league also and though I thought about drafting him as a lottery ticket, i didn't think about gus still being there. i'm a keeper league, so i might dive in on the hill train in the latter part of the season, but hard to justify right now. same with henderson really, both Gurley and Brown running well. Gus and Brown were not unknown commodities at the start of the season, so i'll tag both hill and henderson as overhyped for now.
daylight
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Already ahead of you and aboard the ship. Unfortunately, I cut Haskins for him in a Superflex league because I've got three QBs, so I thought.
Chaka
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
problem is that in re-draft you just don't have the room. Damien Harris hasn't even been active yet this season and he has 3 options in front of him.
Holding people like this had made you miss out on Charks and McLaurins of the world....poor advice, its just simply is.....
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I'm not that old enough that my memory has completely gone (yet), so even when I see it, I won't believe it until I see his knees holding up.
rockaction
Footballguy
I used to miss out. I would listen to people preach patience. Now I've found that the FF year is often won in the first three-four weeks when you have to suss all of the dynamism of the new year out.
Pietaster2
Footballguy
I missed Chark because I was hoarding a couple of those. You're right, sometimes it's better to hit doubles than always waiting for the home run.
hardcoredx
Footballguy
I fully expect fresh legs Damien Harris to get traction in the 2nd half. Burkhead has never stayed healthy and we all know about Michel’s knee. Harris,Hill,singletary, and Henderson look like the best backs talent wise in the rookie pool. Perry will get the starting gig sometime this year , he is one of the RB’s that can be a 4 down workhorse. I think Carson is a JAG who fumbles left and right. Superior first round talent Perry will takeover.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think you mean Penny.
And I don't look for Harris to have a huge role. Some role, yes, but I still think with adequate blocking and non-telegraphed plays that Michel will surprise a lot of people who are so down on him.
With you on Harris - picked him up this week for free. First time he gets carries, he is going to be expensive.
Not with you on Hill - Ingram and Edwards are killing it. No reason to bring him in but for spot play and injury.
Not with you on Henderson either - sure looks like Brown gets first shot - but that might change
With you on Penny - wish I had him.
Curious why you expect Harris to be significantly more productive than Michel has been if/when he gets carries.
Seems like all the NE RBs have got a nasty mix of RBBC, bad O-line, and (potentially) radical changes in role from week to week going against them.
Based mostly on the fact that he might get the opportunity. Not super familiar with him but he is supposed to be a downhilll runner - and that change in approach may bode well. Plus the coach has no loyalty to anyone on the team. He spent a round one pick on him so he either liked the talent he offered or wasn't thrilled with the talent he had at that spot - or both.
ETA: I am probably weeks early on this but the cost is nothing now plus the low upside guy i released. I wouldn't tell anyone to grab him now but to monitor and try to get there a week early - not a week late.
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brewer
Footballguy
I like Harris but he was a third round pick, not a first round pick. Sony Michel was the first round pick.
Whoops!
Plus add to my point - Michel has a ypc near 1 in 2 of 3 games. He's not cutting it. Burkhead is hurt. DH time could be sooner than later.
week 1 - 14 carries for 15 yards
week 2 (Miami) - 21 for 83
week 3 - 9 for 11
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I made the decision to stick with Brown; could have picked up Darrel but didn't. I'm betting that there might be some missed games with Gurley by the end of the season and the KC situation is awfully crowded.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
No he didn't -- the Fridge is back!rockaction said:
I mean, the guy scored a TD every fourth rush!
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
What are people's views on Ryquell Armstead?
Pros:
Minshew breathing some life into that offense? Maybe?
Fournette is frequently injured
Seems similar in build and running style to Fournette. Would he be used similarly (i.e workhorse?)
He can't be less efficient than Fournette, can he?
Cons:
His college highlights didn't impress me (yes, one cut but no wiggle and seems slow)
His ability to catch the ball is a question
It's the Jags offense
Other thoughts?
Pros:
Minshew breathing some life into that offense? Maybe?
Fournette is frequently injured
Seems similar in build and running style to Fournette. Would he be used similarly (i.e workhorse?)
He can't be less efficient than Fournette, can he?
Cons:
His college highlights didn't impress me (yes, one cut but no wiggle and seems slow)
His ability to catch the ball is a question
It's the Jags offense
Other thoughts?
TZMarkie
Footballguy
I have him in 1 league where I own Fournette. In fact, I drafted Armstead in this particular standard 12 teamer (start 3 WRs, no flex).
I cut him after week 1, needing WR help badly then I just re-snagged him last night late.
I think hes interesting to watch, but as mentioned hes not a "lightning bolt" kind of back, he's more thunder and running angry up the middle guy.
Its all about situation for me. If Fournette goes down, we could be staring down the barrel of 17+ touches a game and sign me up for that.
For us Fournette owners, there is definitely some appeal, but for non-Fournette owners in re-draft..... Armstead is likely just an end of bench flier back.
Word has been leaking out they want him to get a few touches, as Fournette has been getting damn near every snap thus far. If Fournette gets injured like he often is, I see some almost instant RB2-ish appeal.
I'm not always into cuffing my RB's, but in this type scenario (main RB frequently injured, possible sizeable workload if he gets the keys to the backfield) I try and snag these type guys too when I can.
TZM
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4th&inches
Footballguy
Assuming he signs somewhere; where are we thinking his value will be?
The obvious (and likely best) fit is NYG - assuming Gallman is Gallman; I’d say ceiling of Low RB2
I’ve read other sites throwing out places like: OAK, GB, NO, etc... as possible landing spots, but barring another RB injury this weekend, I really don’t see another team with more of a need than the Giants. And if one of the above mentioned teams sign him; it’s purely as a backup/ short yardage back IMO
rockaction
Footballguy
Burkhead is questionable with a foot injury, I believe, but almost all is quiet on that front, so I don't have much forward-looking info to pass on. When not pressed, the NEP are of course not forthcoming, and nobody seemed to press, so no answer. Check out Anarchy99's various Patriot postings.
daylight
Footballguy
daylight
Footballguy
I feel like I need to step up here and speak out, especially on behalf of the 'newbies' who might be reading this thread for the first time...
ALWAYS REMEMBER: The standard disclaimer, whether stated, or even intended or not, is YOUR MILEAGE MAY (WILL) VARY".
Meaning (with all due respect @bicycle_seat_sniffer
) :- "problem is that in re-draft you just don't have the room" - In my Home (Primary/REDRAFT) League I *DO* have the room - I'm carrying 3 of 5 of those guys and if I work at it really hard I could add AT LEAST one more - it all depends upon Bench Size - I draft based on having studs in every position and then carrying RB Lotto Tickets in ALL my bench spots - the Top 12 RBs are different in the last 4 weeks of the NFL that the first 4 weeks of the NFL (every year) - in deep bench leagues I could see that it is totally worth it to carry these guys - the shorter the bench, the more subjective it becomes
- "Damien Harris hasn't even been active yet this season" - Actually, he was active Week 3 (Sep. 22nd) - and (this is just my opinion) I expect to see him active Week 4 - Two Weeks is "a trend" in the NFL (whoops, I dare to quote Bloom again)
- "and (Damien Harris) has 3 options in front of him" - Means nothing in a Bill Belichick backfield
- "Holding people like this had made you miss out" - Well, Holding anything makes you miss out on something, this is true in FF and in Life
- "made you miss out on Charks and McLaurins of the world" - are you absolutely certain of your opinion here (over Bloom's, and for EVERY REDRAFT LEAGUE out there)? In my Home (Primary) League I didn't even make a claim or Blind Bid on either of those guys because of my League Size, my Roster Size, my Knowledge of League Mates behavior (we've been together for 20 years), the Premium on RBs vs WRs and on and on and on
If one were to "advise" a former CEO to take a job shoveling #### it MIGHT be BAD advice (it might consume his time and inhibit him from finding an Execute position based on his experience and skills) - If one were to advise a jobless person who only washed dishes his whole live to take a job shoveling #### it MIGHT be GOOD advice (you have to start somewhere) - remember the disclaimer: YOUR MILEAGE MAY (WILL) VARY .
[*]The bottom line is, this is a redraft thread for RB Lotto Tickets (no other criteria) as is, in a way, Bloom's Weekly WW Podcast and...
[*]Your roster is your responsibility, listen objectively to as many opinions as you can and make your own decisions (which are probably radically different form the decisions of others with vastly different League Configurations)... i.e. there is no such thing as bad advise (in the same way as there is no such thing as a bad question) and...
[*]Lastly, I make my living as a Keyboard Monkey in IT while Bloom makes his living watching, studying and analyzing Football and Fantasy Football... when he (and others in his position speak) I listen - For you Newbies out there I advise listening to Cecil and Bloom's free weekly FA podcast and also Fantasy Pros Weekly FA podcast and then form your own opinions
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rockaction
Footballguy
Chark and Marquise Brown are working out nicely in one league.
Just saying.
Just saying.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I've seen worse WRs getting started this year, that is for sure. I think Chark is legit.
daylight
Footballguy
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rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, and I've got them all.
Just kidding: Nah, there have been worse.
I think Chark is legit, too, from the brief time I've gotten to see him.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
I think there is a distinct difference between possible "king maker", and someone on the "honorable mentions". It seems fairly obvious, .... or does it?
Seems like every year someone we don't much envision, comes out of the woodwork and greatly helps teams.
I tend to think of my "lotto backs" in RB2-ish terms. Exactly how much "better" can they be? Or more appropriately, if thats essentially all we can expect. (RB2-ish range)
I place backs like ALEXANDER MATTISON in the "king maker territory", and I would also include JUSTICE HILL in the potential "king maker territory". Mattison, on usage and circumstances alone if Cook goes down. (and nothing wrong with that)
Justice Hill I view as the opposite. Look at how strong he looked at times in college. I do still think it would take an injury to Ingram to fully spring Justice Hill, but the talent/speed combo is as good as it gets. It may well never come to fruition, nor are we assured a full workload for Hill in the event of Ingram injury. But one thing is for sure, if Ingram goes down, I will be stoked to own Hill, and watch what unfolds. His end of season schedule isn't the greatest, but in the right scenario it wouldn't matter. His pass catching would make up for that.
TZM
TZMarkie
Footballguy
For 2 reasons.
1 - Gus Edwards has already shown he is basically an average runner. He looked decidedly meh last year in 11 games. He had exactly 2 receptions, and a mere 2 TDs. I think most have no idea just how dynamic Hill was in college. He is extremely fast, has great hands and simply runs away from the rest of the guys on the field. (His knock in my opinion , is that he isn't that big bruising back, hes more of a speed and shifty guy, though he has supposedly put on more weight.) Look at some tape on Hill, even if its just a few highlight reels on Youtube. Seriously.
Also read this - https://www.pressboxonline.com/2019/08/05/five-things-to-know-about-ravens-rookie-running-back-justice-hill
Gus Edwards may indeed be utilized some if Ingram goes down, but its evident Hill is the more athletic and versatile back. The Ravens already know exactly what they have in Edwards. Think low end RB2 numbers, with the hope of decent games on volume. (and that's when he had little competition last year at times)
2 - Think about what we are trying to accomplish here.......the thrust of this thread isn't about sniffing out who the next average handcuff guy is, its to possibly stumble onto the next KING MAKER. You don't draft Hill hoping for low end serviceable numbers in the event of injury, you basically consider him as a strong lottery ticket back. One who could be a league winner if things fell right. The odds on this happening are not massive, but every year 1-2 backs light it up down the stretch, and the talent here is as good as any. He has the potential to be that lottery ticket , fantasy season-changing back. Gus Edwards just isn't this type of league winning talent, the upside isn't there, at least not the big upside we are trying to harvest.
I said it back in 2016 and it was talked about in the first post of this thread........"This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".
TZM
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Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Some updates in the new month:
I think Reggie Bonnafon may have leapt-frogged Jordan Scarlett as the backup to own in CAR.
Likely need to clean up the list as Ito Smith, not Brian Hill, seems to be the cuff.
Hilliman looks like the next man up for the Gints (but Elijhaa Penny still there as well).
Brandon Bolden may have leapt-frogged Damien Harris as the guy behind the other three backs (Michel, White, Rex).
Tra Carson brought in to spell Aaron Jones in GB, but that will likely change when Jamaal Williams is healed.
I think Reggie Bonnafon may have leapt-frogged Jordan Scarlett as the backup to own in CAR.
Likely need to clean up the list as Ito Smith, not Brian Hill, seems to be the cuff.
Hilliman looks like the next man up for the Gints (but Elijhaa Penny still there as well).
Brandon Bolden may have leapt-frogged Damien Harris as the guy behind the other three backs (Michel, White, Rex).
Tra Carson brought in to spell Aaron Jones in GB, but that will likely change when Jamaal Williams is healed.
