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2019 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings


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I would bet that Bolden is only seeing offensive snaps while White and Michel are both healthy because he is a special teams standout. If Michael or White were to go down Harris could leapfrog Bolden, with Bolden staying mostly on ST's. 

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13 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Some updates in the new month:

I think Reggie Bonnafon may have leapt-frogged Jordan Scarlett as the backup to own in CAR.

Likely need to clean up the list as Ito Smith, not Brian Hill, seems to be the cuff.

Hilliman looks like the next man up for the Gints (but Elijhaa Penny still there as well).

Brandon Bolden may have leapt-frogged Damien Harris as the guy behind the other three backs (Michel, White, Rex).

Tra Carson brought in to spell Aaron Jones in GB, but that will likely change when Jamaal Williams is healed.

Made updates.

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11 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I would bet that Bolden is only seeing offensive snaps while White and Michel are both healthy because he is a special teams standout. If Michael or White were to go down Harris could leapfrog Bolden, with Bolden staying mostly on ST's. 

this

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Per Rotowire:

"Elijhaa Penny could be in store for an elevated role in the Giants' game plan Thursday against the Patriots with neither Saquon Barkley (ankle) nor Wayne Gallman (concussion) expected to be available to play, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports.  Analysis: Barkley was a limited participant in practice Tuesday while Gallman was held out of the session entirely, but with the Giants facing a quick turnaround for their Week 6 matchup, the team will likely err on the side of caution with its franchise back and hold him out for a third straight contest. If that's the case, the Giants will count Penny and Jon Hilliman as the lone healthy backfield options on the 53-man roster, though the team would almost certainly promote Austin Walter from the practice squad before Thursday to provide additional depth. Though he's listed as a fullback, Penny spent the first two years in the pro ranks as a tailback and owns a 3.9 yard-per-carry mark over 46 career totes. Considering that Hilliman is an undrafted rookie who has delivered underwhelming production to date, it wouldn't be surprising if the Giants ultimately chose to lean more heavily on Penny as Thursday's contest unfolds."

Anything to see here?

Edited by daylight
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2 hours ago, daylight said:

Per Rotowire:

"Elijhaa Penny could be in store for an elevated role in the Giants' game plan Thursday against the Patriots with neither Saquon Barkley (ankle) nor Wayne Gallman (concussion) expected to be available to play, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports.  Analysis: Barkley was a limited participant in practice Tuesday while Gallman was held out of the session entirely, but with the Giants facing a quick turnaround for their Week 6 matchup, the team will likely err on the side of caution with its franchise back and hold him out for a third straight contest. If that's the case, the Giants will count Penny and Jon Hilliman as the lone healthy backfield options on the 53-man roster, though the team would almost certainly promote Austin Walter from the practice squad before Thursday to provide additional depth. Though he's listed as a fullback, Penny spent the first two years in the pro ranks as a tailback and owns a 3.9 yard-per-carry mark over 46 career totes. Considering that Hilliman is an undrafted rookie who has delivered underwhelming production to date, it wouldn't be surprising if the Giants ultimately chose to lean more heavily on Penny as Thursday's contest unfolds."

Anything to see here?

Probably nothing to see regardless of opponent, but definitely not against NE.

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26 minutes ago, icehouse said:

Curious. Are those with David Johnson bypassing some other lotto ticket RBs for Chase?

I just dropped Malcolm Brown to grab Chase.

So, there's one yes.  Although Brown's outlook has been fading fast.  (Decided to keep Darrel Williams over Brown, FWIW.)

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2 hours ago, icehouse said:

Curious. Are those with David Johnson bypassing some other lotto ticket RBs for Chase?

It's interesting as Chase has definitive value as a handcuff, which we might very well see this week.

Otherwise, Chase is an interesting stash as he seems to get low but consistent (even growing over the past 3 weeks) in both the run and pass games, and could hold value as ARI continues to protect DJ's health and maybe leverage him more split out wide in this offense. For DJ owners I am not sure you would play both DJ and Chase together any given week.

So in this view, Chase actually becomes potentially more valuable to non-DJ owners as a bye week/flex play than to the DJ owners who likely sit Chase when DJ is healthy.

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I like Chase and he would stash him on my bench if I had room - especially because of Johnson's injury history. I agree with Stompin' Tom's take on him.

I would also consider Murray as a stash if he is available. He had a decent game week 1 (not great but ~12 PPR points). Brees went down in week 2 and his value plummeted and he has been dropped in a bunch of leagues. The offense is run a little differently with Bridgewater at the helm. Brees is due back in the next few weeks and if he gets 75% of what Ingram got last year he will be a good bye week play with possible flex value depending on the matchup.  Obviously Kamara is by far the #1 RB in that system.

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12 minutes ago, L5UT1ger said:

If yahoo is to be believed, the Bonnafon guy is season changing/winning handcuff.

More like a season saving handcuff. Not sure about the winning part. Yet to be proven in a starting role, but if you have CMC, looks like he's the handcuff to have.

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11 minutes ago, 4th&inches said:

With recent Gurley news (link below), not only Malcolm Brown, but possibly even Darrell Henderson would be worth the speculative add this week:

 

I drafted Henderson thinking he might be something. Dropped him when he didn't do anything for a few weeks. Started picking him back up to see if it hits if this Gurley thing turns into more.

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Hard to find much out of the Dolphins dumpster fire, but what about Mark Walton?

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/20191009/miami-dolphins-why-rb-mark-walton-really-impresses-coaches-and-is-in-line-for-more-reps

Seems like he's passing (or passed) Ballage on the depth chart. And while Drake seems to be doing OK with limited opportunities, it's not like he's had a stranglehold on the starting RB job. And Walton seems to be impressing in the passing game, which is where the RBs on this team are going to have any value.

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Quote

Eagles coach Doug Pederson indicated that Boston Scott will be promoted to the team's active roster ahead of Sunday's Week 6 game against the Vikings.

The Eagles were able to stash Scott on their practice squad after he was let go at the end of training camp. Scott gives the Eagles' backfield a much-needed healthy body with Darren Sproles (quad) slated to miss time.

RELATED: 

Philadelphia Eagles

SOURCE: Reuben Frank on Twitter

Oct 11, 2019, 11:13 AM ET

 

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Free agent Jay Ajayi (knee) is expected to work out for teams next week.

Ajayi is a full year removed from a torn ACL. He's told teams he's healthy and could start to draw interest if he can prove it in workouts. Ajayi has a scary knee history, but he's still just 26 and averaged 4.1 YPC in three starts before going down last year. It may take the right situation, but Ajayi should resurface on a non-guaranteed deal.

SOURCE: Les Bowen on Twitter

Oct 12, 2019, 11:12 AM ET

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

Quote

Free agent RB Jay Ajayi will work out for the Cardinals on Tuesday.

Ajayi is over his 2018 ACL tear and will begin his free-agent tour in Arizona. The Cards are also taking a look at former Chief Spencer Ware, suggesting the team expects to be without David Johnson (who was limited to three snaps in Sunday's win over the Giants) when they visit New Orleans in Week 8. Both would be depth options behind presumed starter Chase Edmonds, who broke out for 150 yards (126 rushing, 24 receiving) and three touchdowns against the Giants.

RELATED: 

David Johnson

, Arizona Cardinals

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Oct 21, 2019, 11:28 AM ET

 

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On 10/13/2019 at 8:38 AM, 4th&inches said:

Trayveon Williams was just activated. Depending on league size, he might be worth a stash

Interesting. RIght now neither Mixon nor Gio are getting anything done, mostly (IMHO) related to the sorry state of the Bengals' o-line.

Outside of listing as a guy who potentially gets carreis if Gio/Mixon goes out, not sure he's a higher priority stash than others. Not saying he's not worth listing -- it's a great call-out, @4th&inches . Right now I am focused on who might be a better stash right now, balancing out injury opportunity to longer term value -- Ty Johnson/DJ McKissic vs. Gus Edwards or Walton or even Gio, or a guy like Hunt.

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3 minutes ago, TZMarkie said:

Ty Johnson's stock just went through the roof.

 TZM

What % of your FAAB would you spend on him?  I'm very hesitant.  Both K Johnson and Ty Johnson are averaging <4 YPC and DET is 18th in YPC and 19th in attempts.

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1 minute ago, daylight said:

What % of your FAAB would you spend on him?  I'm very hesitant.  Both K Johnson and Ty Johnson are averaging <4 YPC and DET is 18th in YPC and 19th in attempts.

He's obviously worth a lot in order to snag him, but that could also all turn to dust if the Lions go out and sign a FA.

What to do, what to do....

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7 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Ty Johnson's obviously worth a lot in order to snag him, but that could also all turn to dust if the Lions go out and sign a FA.

What to do, what to do....

I don't think he belongs in the King Maker / Season Changer list.  Agree or Disagree?

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10 minutes ago, daylight said:

What % of your FAAB would you spend on him?  I'm very hesitant.  Both K Johnson and Ty Johnson are averaging <4 YPC and DET is 18th in YPC and 19th in attempts.

I'm not as much into FAAB as others, and I rarely look into that strategy side of things.  But as with any pickup, it likely boils down to need.

How badly do you need a RB?

 

I will say this, I have priority in 2 separate re-draft leagues. One I am 3rd in priority (judging from what I see, I should land Ty Johnson there) and in the other league I am #1.

The league where I am #1, is tricky. Mainly because I am so loaded at RB there. I am primed up for a playoff run there.

(In said league I have this at RB, DEVONTA FREEMAN, LATAVIUS MURRAY, TEVIN COLEMAN, MATT BREIDA,  DAVID JOHNSON , CHASE EDMONDS) So I can choose to keep priority, or snag what should be the hot pickup and stash him on my bench.   I might actually use Ty Johnson because of byes, but the more I think about it, I am contemplating on just keeping priority. Once I reach #1 priority, I am extremely patient on who I pick up, as you never know who will be the fantasy season changer.  Some seasons I just hang on and hang on, and never sacrifice priority, but you need to take everything into consideration. Is TY Johnson a big pickup?  I don't know, but it certainly looks like a situation where most re-draft owners just have to bite the bullet and get him if they need a RB.

 

If I weren't truly desperate in FAAB, I would likely see if I could grab him for a small FAAB offer, like 18%-20%. If I get him great, but since I'm not desperate, you could save those bullets for a better more sure-fire scenario.

 

 TZM

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3 hours ago, daylight said:

Kerryon Johnson went on IR today

Zach Zenner just released by the Saints, would not be surprised to see the Lions bring him back. ZZ will never be considered a stud but watching him for years I had the opinion he always seemed to out produce the other Lion RB's. He does everything fairly well and for fantasy he can be the goal line back and also good in pass pro and receiving.

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38 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

So worth a high waiver claim? I understand FAAB is better but one league has waivers.

If a guy with midlevel RB2 potential would be a big gain to your team, yes. 

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6 hours ago, daylight said:

I don't think he belongs in the King Maker / Season Changer list.  Agree or Disagree?

Agree, but willing to be wrong. Heard a lot of great hype about Johnson and that all he needs is a chance.

Well, he has it -- for now. Let's see what he does with it. And let's see what the Lions do next in terms of adding to this corps or not.

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On 10/10/2019 at 10:35 AM, zamboni said:

Hard to find much out of the Dolphins dumpster fire, but what about Mark Walton?

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/20191009/miami-dolphins-why-rb-mark-walton-really-impresses-coaches-and-is-in-line-for-more-reps

Seems like he's passing (or passed) Ballage on the depth chart. And while Drake seems to be doing OK with limited opportunities, it's not like he's had a stranglehold on the starting RB job. And Walton seems to be impressing in the passing game, which is where the RBs on this team are going to have any value.

Walton vs. Ty. Who will be more valuable?

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2 hours ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

What is everyone’s preferred order with Guice, Armstead, and Snell? Having a hard time ranking them. 

 

ROCK ARMSTEAD all day every day.

Guice is stuck on a bad team mired in a committee and Snell would essentially need 2 long term injuries to rise to prominence. (although admittedly thats already sort of the case)

 

 The Jags have OAK and ATL in weeks 15-16 and they haven't shied away from giving their lead back (Fournette) so many carries its crazy. Oh, did we forget Fournette has a bit of an injury history?

The Armstead/Fournette backfield has "season saver" written all over it in the fantasy playoffs.

I have Fournette + Armstead on my bench in 1/4 re-drafts, and I sent offers tonight for Fournette in 2 others.  I have slipped Armstead on my end of bench in another, and may well tuck him there in all 4.

I currently have Latavius Murray in 4/4, so I believe in cuffing the big workload scenarios.

 

 TZM

 

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5 hours ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

What is everyone’s preferred order with Guice, Armstead, and Snell? Having a hard time ranking them. 

Really different situations, so hard for me to rank them.

If you are looking for a guy who can deliver steady points, that would be Guice -- once healthy that, is. His floor might be low because the Skins look terrible offensively, but seems to me he has a chance for anywhere from 50-70% of the carries once he's back.

Snell has value in the here and now -- but once Jaylen Samuels is back over the next game or two, I think Snell is mostly relegated to the bench and only has value if Connor or Samuels go out again. And given their health history, there is a chance of that.

Armstead would be a season saver and pure lotto gold but doesn't have value now or through the last half of the season, and is wholly dependent on a Fournette injury.

Such different situations, so I would say if you are looking for a guy to contribute now, Snell. A guy you can hold but will need to potentially contribute as a flex later, Guice. And a guy you can afford to hold on to an not play at all unless/until he hits as a pure lotto ticket, Armstead.

 

Three guys I am trying to rank are Guice, Samuels, and Hunt. I will have a need for a flex contributor starting ~Week 10/11. All three of these backs, if healthy, will see some carries. All three have a path to get a large share of carries if the starter falters or they simply flat out outperform them. So by comparison standards, I think this group is more apples-to-apples.

How would you rank them if you were looking for a potential flex contributor with upside?

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3 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Really different situations, so hard for me to rank them.

Armstead would be a season saver and pure lotto gold but doesn't have value now or through the last half of the season, and is wholly dependent on a Fournette injury. And a guy you can afford to hold on to an not play at all unless/until he hits as a pure lotto ticket, Armstead.

 

Three guys I am trying to rank are Guice, Samuels, and Hunt. I will have a need for a flex contributor starting ~Week 10/11. All three of these backs, if healthy, will see some carries. All three have a path to get a large share of carries if the starter falters or they simply flat out outperform them. So by comparison standards, I think this group is more apples-to-apples.

How would you rank them if you were looking for a potential flex contributor with upside?

 

 Some snip. I wrote a bit on Armstead , and included it it in the "playoff push" thread that Wrigley started, and I also placed it into the Armstead thread as well.

 

 Hunt can come back in week 10, but would you fully trust him unless he had at least one week back playing?  Essentially week 11.  Chubb has looked so good at times, I don't see where Hunt would get but so much work. (Of course injuries can happen, and we should always keep that in mind)

Samuels would likely be one you can depend on, or at least for SOME type of low floor of work. Note they worked him pretty extensively in a game or two already, with end arounds, handoffs, even a pass or two if I recall correctly. Conner hasn't looked great, and Samuels has looked very good, even back well into last year. In fact, Jaylen Samuels might be one of the better lottery back type scenarios in the league. His schedule isn't the greatest, but he DOES have CINCY WEEK 12, AND AZ WEEK 14. He would be my choice TBH.

 Guice is potentially the best of the three, but we are closing in on a couple of lost seasons for Guice.  I know the temptation will be there for the Skins to "roll their Corvette out of the garage and see what they have", but I don't see any real positives to that.  Its a waste of a season, they are already out of the playoff picture and what can they gain by giving Guice a bunch of work.  Other than to give him a bit of playing time, the answer is nothing.

 

 TZM

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2 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Mattison vs Henderson?  Who do you prefer for this season?

Henderson because he's about to take the second back job from Brown and arthritis is chronic, whereas Dalvin's injury history can be traced to one source and isn't chronic and he's running really healthily (not to mention he looks 1 1/2 times better than Gurley, who doesn't even look as good as Darrell...). Plus, local watchers hate the LA line while MN loves theirs. 

Edited by rockaction
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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

Henderson because he's about to take the second back job from Brown and arthritis is chronic, whereas Dalvin's injury history can be traced to one source and isn't chronic and he's running really healthily (not to mention he looks 1 1/2 times better than Gurley, who doesn't even look as good as Darrell...). Plus, local watchers hate the LA line while MN loves theirs. 

This is my feeling and is why I have Henderson in 2 leagues, BUT I do wonder if Henderson is less likely than Mattison to be a true bellcow because I think that if Gurley goes out then more of a timeshare with Brown is likely as opposed to MIN where Mattison could be the guy.  Plus Gurley's condition being chronic means that there is sort of a week-to-week feeling of the whole thing, whereas Mattison will be clear when to start and when to not.  It's like Mattison has a 15% chance of being relevant, but relevancy for him means like a 90% chance of RB1.  Whereas Henderson has a 40% chance of being relevant, but only a 65% of RB1.  

Or something like that.  Henderson has a higher median outcome but Mattison has the higher ceiling, if we are talking about real lotto, that's Mattison.

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1 minute ago, Long Ball Larry said:

This is my feeling and is why I have Henderson in 2 leagues, BUT I do wonder if Henderson is less likely than Mattison to be a true bellcow because I think that if Gurley goes out then more of a timeshare with Brown is likely as opposed to MIN where Mattison could be the guy.  Plus Gurley's condition being chronic means that there is sort of a week-to-week feeling of the whole thing, whereas Mattison will be clear when to start and when to not.  It's like Mattison has a 15% chance of being relevant, but relevancy for him means like a 90% chance of RB1.  Whereas Henderson has a 40% chance of being relevant, but only a 65% of RB1.  

Or something like that.  Henderson has a higher median outcome but Mattison has the higher ceiling, if we are talking about real lotto, that's Mattison.

With Henderson you also have to consider that if Gurley goes out, some out-of-nowhere add like 2018 CJ Anderson could be the guy.

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39 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

 It's like Mattison has a 15% chance of being relevant, but relevancy for him means like a 90% chance of RB1.  Whereas Henderson has a 40% chance of being relevant, but only a 65% of RB1.  

Or something like that. 

Gotcha. I think I see what you're saying. Should something happen to Cook it's clear Mattison is the back. Gurley will be in-and-out (athritis is pain management, not injury) so Henderson will see points regardless, just in a timeshare with Brown and the severity of the injury that keeps Gurley out is less likely to be debilitating like Cook's.

Dig. 

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3 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

This is my feeling and is why I have Henderson in 2 leagues, BUT I do wonder if Henderson is less likely than Mattison to be a true bellcow because I think that if Gurley goes out then more of a timeshare with Brown is likely as opposed to MIN where Mattison could be the guy.  Plus Gurley's condition being chronic means that there is sort of a week-to-week feeling of the whole thing, whereas Mattison will be clear when to start and when to not.  It's like Mattison has a 15% chance of being relevant, but relevancy for him means like a 90% chance of RB1.  Whereas Henderson has a 40% chance of being relevant, but only a 65% of RB1.  

Or something like that.  Henderson has a higher median outcome but Mattison has the higher ceiling, if we are talking about real lotto, that's Mattison.

Agreed.

At this point you are banking on the unpredictability of injury.  For me I consider what if both Cook and Gurley were out and which backup would I prefer in that situation?  For me that's Mattison.

Although if you are looking for a one week bye fill in at RB...well both should get opportunities this week but I like Henderson vs Cinci in London.  If the Rams roll like they should McVay will spell Gurley early and often and there is a decent chance he doesn't even see the field in the fourth quarter.  That Cinci D is absolutely terrible against the run and it has been pretty consistent.  Washington hasn't been very good vs the run either but the NE game was responsible for a large chunk of their season long points against.

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14 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Really different situations, so hard for me to rank them.

If you are looking for a guy who can deliver steady points, that would be Guice -- once healthy that, is. His floor might be low because the Skins look terrible offensively, but seems to me he has a chance for anywhere from 50-70% of the carries once he's back.

Snell has value in the here and now -- but once Jaylen Samuels is back over the next game or two, I think Snell is mostly relegated to the bench and only has value if Connor or Samuels go out again. And given their health history, there is a chance of that.

Armstead would be a season saver and pure lotto gold but doesn't have value now or through the last half of the season, and is wholly dependent on a Fournette injury.

Such different situations, so I would say if you are looking for a guy to contribute now, Snell. A guy you can hold but will need to potentially contribute as a flex later, Guice. And a guy you can afford to hold on to an not play at all unless/until he hits as a pure lotto ticket, Armstead.

 

Three guys I am trying to rank are Guice, Samuels, and Hunt. I will have a need for a flex contributor starting ~Week 10/11. All three of these backs, if healthy, will see some carries. All three have a path to get a large share of carries if the starter falters or they simply flat out outperform them. So by comparison standards, I think this group is more apples-to-apples.

How would you rank them if you were looking for a potential flex contributor with upside?

I like Guice’s talent the best but his team is so bad that I feel at best he will be a floor play which can still be valuable. 

If Conner went down I think Samuels and Snell would split the work. I would feel a lot better about the situation if Ben wasn’t hurt this season. 

Hunt to me is the best mix of talent and situation is Chubb went down. I’d put him first among these 3. 

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After losing K. Johnson I'm stacking lotto tickets and watching others.

I'm keeping my WR corp dense (K. Alllen, T. Lockett, C. Davis only) in order to load up on these guys.

Current Lottos on roster: D. Henderson, A. Mattison, R. Armstead.

Watch List: G. Edwards, J. Samuel, R. Bonnofon, J. Wilkins, T. Pollard, D. Guice.

A lot of Guice talk here, but after watching AP last night, damn...that guy can still run. Not sure Guice emerges anytime soon.

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1 hour ago, kyoun1e said:

After losing K. Johnson I'm stacking lotto tickets and watching others.

I'm keeping my WR corp dense (K. Alllen, T. Lockett, C. Davis only) in order to load up on these guys.

Current Lottos on roster: D. Henderson, A. Mattison, R. Armstead.

Watch List: G. Edwards, J. Samuel, R. Bonnofon, J. Wilkins, T. Pollard, D. Guice.

A lot of Guice talk here, but after watching AP last night, damn...that guy can still run. Not sure Guice emerges anytime soon.

I think Pollard would be my number 1 out of that watch list.  You've gotta assume he will be a clear-cut number 1 back there.

I know very little about Bonnafon, but from a strict upside play, I feel like he might be the next best.  CMac seems like he could go down at any time just based on his massive usage, and it sounds like Bonnafon would be the starter (if anyone has a different feel on that, then I am happy to be corrected).

Guice or Edwards next, but I think that those offenses are a lot harder to predict from usage standpoint.

Then Wilkins and Samuel.  I definitely like Wilkins, but Hines would got plenty of play and it seems to me like he is getting a fair amount of RZ work (without looking at the numbers).  Samuels, I'm just not totally sold on as a full-time back and Pgh offense seems a bit risky right now.

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