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Dynasty & Redraft: Travis Etienne, Jaguars


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7 hours ago, travdogg said:

Arguably the worst pick of round 1. Jags had like 3 positions they didn't have a need at, so naturally they spend a 1st at one of them. Maybe they are hoping for a McAllister/Bush type thing, but man, feels like a reach for the player, and a terrible use of resources. 

Even though I had my doubts about ETN being a bell cow RB, the Jags had nothing behind Robinson.

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Lets just get this out there and not sugar coat it.  Absurd pick for a 1-15 team to take a RB in the first round.  They own the 33rd pick so they will get a great value but a 1st round RB? The re

Man...someone gave this kid TERRIBLE advice. Why in the world any running back (let alone a speed running back) would come back for his senior year when he was projected to go in 2nd round....abs

Funny how everyone in this thread rated cmc higher than etn as a prospect coming out of college.  Cuz if you read this forum back when cmc was a rookie he was gonna be lucky to carve out a Danny woodh

Despite my protestations in the other threads, I do think Etienne has to win the job, actually. That's different than being able to step in and catch your footing. Robinson was ready to go right from the jump last year; one thinks Etienne must do the same to win the job. I think Meyer wants competition in camp. He's a rah-rah guy. No better place to rah-rah it than a good old-fashioned professional UDFA vs. first-round battle at running back. 

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Tough landing spot for Etienne for the next few years unless he really outplays Robinson. Robinson is signed through 2022 and then becomes a RFA, so he’s likely not going anywhere anytime soon. 

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12 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Do you guys hear yourselves? "If" he beats out Robinson?

No kidding.  There is no way Etienne doesn't lead this backfield.  Based on how well Robinson did last season, Etienne should feast.

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1 minute ago, Blick said:

No kidding.  There is no way Etienne doesn't lead this backfield.  Based on how well Robinson did last season, Etienne should feast.

Excuse me, 1000+ yards, 4.5 avg, 7 TDs, 49 receptions 344 yds and 3 TDs isn't chop liver.  You think they are going to bench that?  I think not.  You have to look at the reality of this and ETN going to the Jags hurts both Robinson and ETN for fantasy, but helps the Jags, because they didn't have much behind Robinson. 

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5 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Excuse me, 1000+ yards, 4.5 avg, 7 TDs, 49 receptions 344 yds and 3 TDs isn't chop liver.  You think they are going to bench that?  I think not.  You have to look at the reality of this and ETN going to the Jags hurts both Robinson and ETN for fantasy, but helps the Jags, because they didn't have much behind Robinson. 

So you think Etienne and Robinson are similar talents?  Obviously Robinson isn't going away.  Its going to be a shared backfield.  I just don't see how Etienne doesn't get the bigger share.

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11 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Excuse me, 1000+ yards, 4.5 avg, 7 TDs, 49 receptions 344 yds and 3 TDs isn't chop liver.  You think they are going to bench that?  I think not.  You have to look at the reality of this and ETN going to the Jags hurts both Robinson and ETN for fantasy, but helps the Jags, because they didn't have much behind Robinson. 

I just don’t think the coaching staff sees it that way.  RB’s are a dime a dozen in the NFL.  We’ve seen fewer and fewer RB’s go in the 1st round.  And yet they took one here, despite having a ton of needs.

I don’t think they’re drafting for RB depth.  I don’t think they see Robinson as a really good player.  I don’t think they see him as unbenchable.  You just don’t use that kind of draft capital on a RB and not use the heck out of him.  
 

Maybe they want to ease ETN in and Robinson gets more work early.  I certainly don’t think Robinson just goes away.  He’ll have a role.  He’s not chopped liver.  But I think  this pick sends a big message as to how the new regime sees Robinson.

Edited by jm192
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2 minutes ago, jm192 said:

I just don’t think the coaching staff sees it that way.  RB’s are a dime a dozen in the NFL.  We’ve seen fewer and fewer RB’s go in the 1st round.  And yet they took one here, despite having a ton of needs.

I don’t think they’re drafting for RB depth.  I don’t think they see Robinson as a really good player.  I don’t think they see him as unbenchable.  You just don’t use that kind of draft capital on a RB and not use the heck out of him.  
 

Maybe they want to ease ETN in and Robinson gets more work early.  But I think  this pick sends a big message as to how the new regime sees Robinson.

....or maybe they see a specific role for ETN.  This isn't a situation that is bell cow or the bench.  Yes, I see them using ETN a lot, but that doesn't mean they won't use Robinson, especially on early downs and at the goal line.  Anyone thinking this is going to be a 70/30 split for ETN need to take off the rose colored glasses and look at the reality of this.

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We have some delusional Robinson owners in here. ETN wasn't drafted in the first to spell Robinson. I'm also pretty sure the new franchise QB is going to make it clear how much he loves playing with his college buddy. In fact I'd say Lawrence may have had a big impact on this selection. Glad I don't own Robinson anywhere. He just turned into Trent Richardson (year 2) overnight. 

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7 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

....or maybe they see a specific role for ETN.  This isn't a situation that is bell cow or the bench.  Yes, I see them using ETN a lot, but that doesn't mean they won't use Robinson, especially on early downs and at the goal line.  Anyone thinking this is going to be a 70/30 split for ETN need to take off the rose colored glasses and look at the reality of this.

I’m not calling you crazy or anything, I find myself agreeing with a ton of your posts.  
 

I can’t see Jacksonville’s new coaching staff spending a 1st round pick on a RB for specific role.  There are other solid RB’s that they could have taken later for that kind of utilization.

Why not go Carter/Gainwell later?  
 

I don’t think Robinson goes away.  It could be a split for part of this season.  But I think the 1st round RB is very much “the plan.” 
 

 

Edited by jm192
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40 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Do you guys hear yourselves? "If" he beats out Robinson?

I'm just hedging against Etienne coming into the pros and throwing a horrific dud up, á la Trent Richardson. I think if Etienne flashes in camp, it's over. 

Robinson's not awful. He also didn't just get drafted in the first round. We all, except really for one or two guys, see that. 

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22 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Excuse me, 1000+ yards, 4.5 avg, 7 TDs, 49 receptions 344 yds and 3 TDs isn't chop liver.  You think they are going to bench that?  I think not.  You have to look at the reality of this and ETN going to the Jags hurts both Robinson and ETN for fantasy, but helps the Jags, because they didn't have much behind Robinson. 

I agree with the bolded but I also felt there was a pretty good chance ETN was going to be in a RBBC type situation so this doesn't move him down all that much for me - I've always been a lot less high on Robinson than most people here. I just didn't see anything other than a decent grinder type RB that saw massive volume. He should surely still see a decent workload but he went from a potential RB1 to a fantasy RB3.

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Guys like Robinson get supplanted on the regular.

CJ Anderson was coming off a 1k year when he went to Carolina - and was obliterated by year 2 Christian McCaffrey. 

Chester Taylor went for 1200 yards and 42 receptions - and was obliterated by rookie Adrian Peterson.

Even pretty good Mark Ingram welcomed Kamara to the backfield in 2017 and both had great years - but by the next year was being shown the door. 

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12 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I agree with the bolded but I also felt there was a pretty good chance ETN was going to be in a RBBC type situation so this doesn't move him down all that much for me - I've always been a lot less high on Robinson than most people here. I just didn't see anything other than a decent grinder type RB that saw massive volume. He should surely still see a decent workload but he went from a potential RB1 to a fantasy RB3.

No doubt this hurts Robinson the most, but it isn't great for ETN either (short term).  I'm a big believer in draft capital, so there is that, but Robinson had a great year for someone that went undrafted.  Worst case scenario for ETN is being used primarily in passing situations.  I suppose this could end up being a 70/30 split for ETN because of draft capital, but perhaps the Jags have a specific role in mind for ETN, we don't know.

Edited by JohnnyU
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Lets just get this out there and not sugar coat it.  Absurd pick for a 1-15 team to take a RB in the first round.  They own the 33rd pick so they will get a great value but a 1st round RB?

The reason Robinson blew up is because the Jags took Leonard Fournette with the 4th pick of the 2017 draft and didn't resign him.  Lesson NOT-learned.

I can see Pittsburgh taking Najee since they are a 11-5 playoff team in dire need of a RB and don't have a 1,000 yard rusher on the team but Jacksonville?  

You don't build a team from the RB position.  

Come on, this was a terrible TERRIBLE pick because of the position before considering need.

Edited by Bracie Smathers
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4 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

No doubt this hurts Robinson the most, but it isn't great for ETN either (short term).  I'm a big believer in draft capital, so there is that, but Robinson had a great year for someone that went undrafted.  Worst case scenario for ETN is being used primarily in passing situations.  I suppose this could end up being a 70/30 split for ETN because of draft capital, but perhaps the Jags have a specific role in mind for ETN, we don't know.

We don’t know if the tv will come on when we press the power button, but from previous experience, it’s likely.

A team doesnt draft a RB in the 1st because they have a specific role.  Jacksonville does not have the luxury of taking a COP/3rd down back in the 1st.  

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42 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Excuse me, 1000+ yards, 4.5 avg, 7 TDs, 49 receptions 344 yds and 3 TDs isn't chop liver.  You think they are going to bench that?  I think not.  You have to look at the reality of this and ETN going to the Jags hurts both Robinson and ETN for fantasy, but helps the Jags, because they didn't have much behind Robinson. 

This is a solid point but J Rob also had literally 99% of the volume or something crazy like that. This muddys the water a ton for both in terms of opportunities they might get. If they are both really efficient they could be contributors to your fantasy team, but their value just dropped a lot from any ideal scenario 

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Just realized, this was the pick they got from the Rams.  
 

I love ETN, but Rams making out like bandits. 
 

Elite cover corner for RB and Chaisson who remains to be seen what he’ll become.  

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1 hour ago, jm192 said:

A team doesnt draft a RB in the 1st because they have a specific role.  Jacksonville does not have the luxury of taking a COP/3rd down back in the 1st.  

Perhaps they view him an every down back. Certainly showed that in college ;)

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3 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Even though I had my doubts about ETN being a bell cow RB, the Jags had nothing behind Robinson.

They had Hyde, who is nothing special, but a competent backup. Other than QB, C and LB, there wasn't a position the Jags needed less than a RB. 

Its especially weird to me, because no team should have appreciated the RB's don't matter idea, more than the team that just got a pro bowl year from the undrafted rookie who has several cheap years left. 

48 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Just realized, this was the pick they got from the Rams.  
 

I love ETN, but Rams making out like bandits. 
 

Elite cover corner for RB and Chaisson who remains to be seen what he’ll become.  

Great point. Its like Khalil Mack trade a bit, where on paper the draft picks should be the winning side, but if this is how they were spent, then never mind.

It was true to a study that showed when teams have multiple 1sts, they tend to be a little more bold with the 2nd one, like they are playing with house money so to speak.

Edited by travdogg
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2021 NFL Draft: Instant fantasy analysis on Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Kyle Pitts and entire first round
 

Excerpts:
 

Quote

Okay, I got a little over-excited about Etienne. I adjusted his target share down from 15% and 12% and it knocked him down from RB12 to RB20. That seems more reasonable, but the upside really is that high. That also indicates how narrow the gap between the 10-ish range and 20-ish range for me -- Clyde Edwards-Helaire is my RB11 now, projected for 262.4 PPR points per game. Etienne is projected for 239.8 at RB20, and RB18 is David Montgomery at 248.3 points -- less than a point per game from RB11.

Chris Towers

 

Quote

If you're going to replicate the Clemson offense, you might as well go all the way with it! Travis Etienne reunites with his college quarterback in Jacksonville. Thinking back to Urban Meyer's running backs at Ohio State, I don't quite remember one being as lean as Etienne, but I don't remember many as explosive either. The Jaguars figure to line him up everywhere and feed him at least a dozen touches per game to start, but it shouldn't take too long for Etienne to dominate touches over James Robinson. I'm OK calling Etienne a low-end No. 2 Fantasy rusher in PPR and would prefer to target him in Round 4. He'll be a top-six overall pick in rookie-only drafts.

Dave Richard

 


 

Quote

This offense in Jacksonville will be based off of creating matchup nightmares. Many are. Etienne will be flexed out wide and used as a RB. His speed and ability to be used in different spots made him their pick because the idea to find guys that are duel threats are needed.

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) April 30, 2021

@JameyEisenberg via Twitter

 

 

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ETN is obviously the odds on favorite to lead the backfield sooner rather than later, but the certainty people have in it is probably over the top.  We FFers sure do have short memories.

When the Seahawks drafted Rashaad Penny at roughly the same spot in the draft Chris Carson hadn't done half as much as what JRob has done, AND Carson was coming off a major injury, AND the Seahawks were adamant that Rashaad Penny was their stud 3-down back going forward.

Carson ran for 1150 yards and 9 TDs that year while Penny spelled him

ETN was drafted in roughly the same spot in the draft as Penny, the incumbent JRob is 100% healthy, and the coaching staff has already said ETN will be a 3rd down back with JRob leading the way on early downs.

I don't buy what Urban is saying, and I am targeting ETN if anyone is selling at a discount, but we've seen plenty of times before where the incumbent surprisingly held onto the lead role for another year or two and in many of those circumstances the writing was a lot less on the wall than it is here.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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9 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Guys like Robinson get supplanted on the regular.

CJ Anderson was coming off a 1k year when he went to Carolina - and was obliterated by year 2 Christian McCaffrey. 

Chester Taylor went for 1200 yards and 42 receptions - and was obliterated by rookie Adrian Peterson.

Even pretty good Mark Ingram welcomed Kamara to the backfield in 2017 and both had great years - but by the next year was being shown the door. 

Is this the same CJ Anderson that was an undrafted free agent who surprisingly held onto the lead RB job in Denver for 4 more years after they spent an early pick on Montee Ball?

:P

 

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Guys like Robinson get supplanted on the regular.

CJ Anderson was coming off a 1k year when he went to Carolina - and was obliterated by year 2 Christian McCaffrey. 

Chester Taylor went for 1200 yards and 42 receptions - and was obliterated by rookie Adrian Peterson.

Even pretty good Mark Ingram welcomed Kamara to the backfield in 2017 and both had great years - but by the next year was being shown the door. 

Big difference between those RBs and James Robinson. JR still has 2 yrs left on his contract..and CJ anderson had only like a 4.0 yd avg.

 

IMO, I think ETN is just a fall back option just in case James Robinson falls below a 4.0 yd avg.

Edited by Unwrittenlaw
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People on Twitter keep talking about ETN playing the Harvin Role in this offense and how they wanted Toney for it.

I think Toney would have been used similarly to Harvin had they gotten him.  But just because that's your plan for Toney, are they going to make ETN a WR that they occasionally use as a running back?  That doesn't make sense to me.  

Harvin's career high in touches was 139.  ETN  is going to get more than that.  I'm sure they'll want to get him out in space.  Alvin Kamara is probably a better comparison for how he'll be used.  Not saying he's Kamara. 

ETN will be the most heavily utilized back, and not some guy with "a role."  Robinson won't shrivel up and die.  But he won't be anywhere near what he was this past year.  As time goes on, it will become more lopsided for ETN, IMO.  

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On 4/30/2021 at 6:18 AM, Andy Dufresne said:

Guys like Robinson get supplanted on the regular.

CJ Anderson was coming off a 1k year when he went to Carolina - and was obliterated by year 2 Christian McCaffrey. 

Chester Taylor went for 1200 yards and 42 receptions - and was obliterated by rookie Adrian Peterson.

Even pretty good Mark Ingram welcomed Kamara to the backfield in 2017 and both had great years - but by the next year was being shown the door. 

 

On 4/30/2021 at 5:04 PM, Unwrittenlaw said:

Big difference between those RBs and James Robinson. JR still has 2 yrs left on his contract..and CJ anderson had only like a 4.0 yd avg.

 

IMO, I think ETN is just a fall back option just in case James Robinson falls below a 4.0 yd avg.

There is also a big difference between Adrian Peterson/CMC and ETN.  I really don't seem him in that type of class.

 

The other thing I haven't seen mentioned on this board since the pick was that the biggest thing the new Jax staff said they needed from the backfield was explosiveness which matches the weakness of Robinson.  I think this pick fits perfectly with what the coaches speak was before the draft.  I see them using both of these guys together as they are really complimentary to each other based on strengths/weaknesses.  It should be great for the Jags but terrible for FF.  That being said, it was still a terrible pick for what that team really needs.  

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14 minutes ago, Gally said:

There is also a big difference between Adrian Peterson/CMC and ETN.  I really don't seem him in that type of class.

 

People said nearly the exact same things about CMC as they are Etienne. "Too early", "A complimentary back"...

It's amazing that people seem to think less of him after a year of getting better at the position.

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I'm not sure if people think Spiller's lack of success in the NFL coming out of Clemson is why they are down on Etienne but I don't think those are good comps anyway. I think as long as he's used correctly (and it sure sounds like they will, focusing on his speed, pass catching ability) he's going to be a very good FF player right out of the gate. 

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5 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

People said nearly the exact same things about CMC as they are Etienne. "Too early", "A complimentary back"...

It's amazing that people seem to think less of him after a year of getting better at the position.

I was higher on CMC than most so I wasn't one of those guys that had CMC as too early or a complimentary back.  I just don't see ETN in that same caliber of player.  I think he can be productive and I think Robinson is really good at what he does (between tackles, initial burst to gain positive yardage, and power enough to break first tackles) which is a nice compliment to ETN as I don't think he is as good at those things but is better in space and long speed.  I just don't think a 1st rounder was necessary for this team.  

 

Now all that being said, the totally new coaching staff gives pause about Robinson although from watching him all last year (I had him most of the year until I traded him for Taylor right before Taylor took off) I think Robinson is a lot better of an NFL RB than he is given credit for.  Not flashy but good at what he does.  

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Etienne isn't anywhere near the prospect CMC was. Etienne has a lot more warts, and landed in a worse situation.

I don't hate Etienne, I just think the Jags erred in spending a 1st at a less valuable position, that they didn't need. I think Robinson will probably be seeing at least 45% of the work. This might be a dreaded RBBC for years to come.

I'd probably rank Etienne as the 1.6 rookie pick right now. I'd rather have him than Robinson, but I'm a lot less excited about him(both of them really) than I was before the draft.

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I have had some time to think about this and despite Harris being selected one pick higher than ETN and Harris going to the Steelers who have a long track record if not using RBBC and the Jaguars with no track record to speak of with new coaches I still settle on who I think is the best player and that is ETN.

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

I'd probably rank Etienne as the 1.6 rookie pick right now. I'd rather have him than Robinson, but I'm a lot less excited about him(both of them really) than I was before the draft.

Oh please, oh please, oh please (says the guy with 1.5 and 1.6)...

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

Remember when Chris Carson got shown the door when 1st round RB Penny showed up?

I've heard this narrative a lot.

The issue(s) with Penny started before he even set foot on the football field.

He had put on 25 lbs between the NFL draft and training camp.  He showed up to TC balloooned up and out of shape.

That played a big part in his under performing, opening the door for Carson to out perform him.

He eventually got his weight down mid to end of  season of his rookie year and began to show some of that explosiveness, tackle breaking ability and skill that got him drafted (seemingly close to at least making the backfield a time share if not outright taking control) and then went on to tear his ACL.

Edited by ty247
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2 minutes ago, ty247 said:

I've heard this narrative a lot.

The issue(s) with Penny started before he even set foot on the football field.

He had put on 25 lbs between the NFL draft and training camp.  He showed up to TC balloooned up and out of shape.

That played a big part in his under performing, opening the door for Carson to out perform him.

He eventually got his weight down mid to end of  season of his rookie year and began to show some of that explosiveness, tackle breaking ability and skill that got him drafted (seemingly close to at least making the backfield a time share if not outright taking control) and then went on to tear his ACL.

The point is that it isn't a forgone conclusion.  Maybe Etienne comes in and blows the doors off, but writing off a guy that ran for over 1000 yards on that team seems a little short sighted.

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3 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

The point is that it isn't a forgone conclusion.  Maybe Etienne comes in and blows the doors off, but writing off a guy that ran for over 1000 yards on that team seems a little short sighted.

Etienne was never going to be a workhorse, at least I didn't think so.  He's in a spot where he doesn't have to be.  I just can't see a world where is doesn't get 10-12 touches a game with most of those in space on receptions or outside runs.  Short yardage TDs may not be there, but receptions should be.

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4 minutes ago, Blick said:

Etienne was never going to be a workhorse, at least I didn't think so.  He's in a spot where he doesn't have to be.  I just can't see a world where is doesn't get 10-12 touches a game with most of those in space on receptions or outside runs.  Short yardage TDs may not be there, but receptions should be.

He'll definitely get touches, and maybe a lot if he's really good.  JAX would be pretty foolish to immediately throw Robinson to the side though.

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5 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I seriously don't know how some of you guys draft anybody.

Fade everyone!

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Posted (edited)
On 5/5/2021 at 9:24 AM, Gally said:

The other thing I haven't seen mentioned on this board since the pick was that the biggest thing the new Jax staff said they needed from the backfield was explosiveness which matches the weakness of Robinson.

Yes, the Jax staff said that, and we actually did cover that in the Robinson thread or another thread. A bunch of us actually had a long discussion about what the coaches said and how it would impact their drafting. menobrown and I said the only back we could see them going that would really put a dent in Robinson in the early rounds (because Harris and Williams aren't speed guys) was Etienne at 25 or 33, and sure enough, it came to fruition.

Edited by rockaction
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On 5/5/2021 at 3:00 PM, Foosball God said:

Remember when Chris Carson got shown the door when 1st round RB Penny showed up?

We can always find exceptions to rules but teams usually don't draft RBs in the 1st without the intention of getting them the ball early and often. Also, if ETN is truly the talent his college career makes him appear to be, he's going to force his way onto the field like Kamara did as a rookie. 

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