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Dynasty & Redraft: RB D’Andre Swift, Lions


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Moody @EricNMoody

D'Andre Swift had the 4th highest Fantasy Points Per Opportunity (1.11) among RBs last season. He was very effective last season when provided 10 or more opportunities. No need for Lynn to complicate things.

https://twitter.com/ericnmoody/status/1400500524860985349?s=21
 

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Chris Burke @ChrisBurkeNFL

Anthony Lynn says he's going to ride the hot hand at RB. "If you go in the game and you’re ballin’, you’re gonna stay in there."

https://twitter.com/chrisburkenfl/status/1400479789434163206?s=21

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42 minutes ago, Kiddnets said:

It's almost like Lynn is trying to make Swift lose ADP so he can snag him late...Im still buying

As a Lions fan, I want Jamaal to see 175+ touches. I want our most talented back to still be healthy at the end of his rookie deal.

As a prospective buyer in redraft, "we'll go with the hot hand" does not deter me. Williams is a good all around back who does a lot of things well, but D'Andre dwarfs him in the talent department. He'll be very efficient with his 250-275 touches this year and I feel pretty confident 1.3-1.4K 8 TDs and 65 receptions are his floor. Could easily see him approach 1500 and 85 (TDs are variable, who knows.)

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Posted (edited)

The hot hand comment does not bother me at all in regards to Smiths opportunity. The hot hand means explosive and efficient plays and Swift is MUCH more likely to provide that than Williams is. It will sort itself out quickly.

Edited by Biabreakable
Swift not Smith sorry still thinking a bit about Irv Smith
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On 6/3/2021 at 3:47 PM, barackdhouse said:

A former RB as head coach trying to foster competition and excellence in that room. Seems par for the course. Wish I could get him in the 3rd like a lot of people have been able to. 

Agreed.  With all the effort that goes into a game plan, how often do NFL teams just say we'll "play it by ear".

I heard some concerns (Sirius Fantasy Sports) about managing Swift's workload.  We've also got an extra game now.  I expect Williams to get his touches, which might frustrate some.  They probably need to find a level that keeps Swift fresh/effective.

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Ok, I'm going to help everyone out here. You are going to want to get this guy, especially in dynasty. He is about to get huge.  If there is someone worried about Jamal Williams/Gurley as being a threat to his production then great! You can get a discount. If not don't worry about it, pay the price. I see his path as that of McCaffreys. And yes I'm saying he's the next McCaffrey. They had the same amount of carries their rookie years but McCaffrey doubled Swift up in catches. In McCaffreys second year he had 100 more carries and 30 more catches. I see that for Swift easy. Then McCaffreys third year he reached 287 carries and 116 catches. Now I don't see that many carries but I do think 230 is reasonable to go along with 80 to 90 catches. McCaffreys tds went up from 7 to 13 to 19 in that span as well. I see an incremental increase for Swift in this department also, but tds are hard to predict. Plus Carolinas record got worse the better McCaffrey did. 11-5, 7-9, then 5-11. Which is good news because Detroit is awful. But Swift is Detroits only weapon. Just like McCaffrey was Carolinas only weapon. And their skill sets are the same. I'm excited. I hope this can convince some to invest in this guy. You won't regret it.

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5 hours ago, Mark Football said:

Ok, I'm going to help everyone out here. You are going to want to get this guy, especially in dynasty. He is about to get huge.  If there is someone worried about Jamal Williams/Gurley as being a threat to his production then great! You can get a discount. If not don't worry about it, pay the price. I see his path as that of McCaffreys. And yes I'm saying he's the next McCaffrey. They had the same amount of carries their rookie years but McCaffrey doubled Swift up in catches. In McCaffreys second year he had 100 more carries and 30 more catches. I see that for Swift easy. Then McCaffreys third year he reached 287 carries and 116 catches. Now I don't see that many carries but I do think 230 is reasonable to go along with 80 to 90 catches. McCaffreys tds went up from 7 to 13 to 19 in that span as well. I see an incremental increase for Swift in this department also, but tds are hard to predict. Plus Carolinas record got worse the better McCaffrey did. 11-5, 7-9, then 5-11. Which is good news because Detroit is awful. But Swift is Detroits only weapon. Just like McCaffrey was Carolinas only weapon. And their skill sets are the same. I'm excited. I hope this can convince some to invest in this guy. You won't regret it.

Passionate write-up. Curious though, are you a Lions fan?

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2 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Passionate write-up. Curious though, are you a Lions fan?

I think we should all listen to a guy who's last name is "Football".

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8 hours ago, Mark Football said:

Ok, I'm going to help everyone out here. You are going to want to get this guy, especially in dynasty. He is about to get huge.  If there is someone worried about Jamal Williams/Gurley as being a threat to his production then great! You can get a discount. If not don't worry about it, pay the price. I see his path as that of McCaffreys. And yes I'm saying he's the next McCaffrey. They had the same amount of carries their rookie years but McCaffrey doubled Swift up in catches. In McCaffreys second year he had 100 more carries and 30 more catches. I see that for Swift easy. Then McCaffreys third year he reached 287 carries and 116 catches. Now I don't see that many carries but I do think 230 is reasonable to go along with 80 to 90 catches. McCaffreys tds went up from 7 to 13 to 19 in that span as well. I see an incremental increase for Swift in this department also, but tds are hard to predict. Plus Carolinas record got worse the better McCaffrey did. 11-5, 7-9, then 5-11. Which is good news because Detroit is awful. But Swift is Detroits only weapon. Just like McCaffrey was Carolinas only weapon. And their skill sets are the same. I'm excited. I hope this can convince some to invest in this guy. You won't regret it.

I like it all but  I'm seeing more Kamara if things go well then CMC. I think the carries is where he'll fall a little short, at least that would plan of Lions staff, just really think they are not trying to run him into the ground while they rebuild.

We are doing a startup right now using FFPC site with just people from this board. I drew pick 1.6 and could not trade back for nothing so had to stick and pick at 6 but he was one of my main 3-4 players I considered. I passed, he went 2.1.

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18 hours ago, Mark Football said:

Ok, I'm going to help everyone out here. You are going to want to get this guy, especially in dynasty. He is about to get huge.  If there is someone worried about Jamal Williams/Gurley as being a threat to his production then great! You can get a discount. If not don't worry about it, pay the price. I see his path as that of McCaffreys. And yes I'm saying he's the next McCaffrey. They had the same amount of carries their rookie years but McCaffrey doubled Swift up in catches. In McCaffreys second year he had 100 more carries and 30 more catches. I see that for Swift easy. Then McCaffreys third year he reached 287 carries and 116 catches. Now I don't see that many carries but I do think 230 is reasonable to go along with 80 to 90 catches. McCaffreys tds went up from 7 to 13 to 19 in that span as well. I see an incremental increase for Swift in this department also, but tds are hard to predict. Plus Carolinas record got worse the better McCaffrey did. 11-5, 7-9, then 5-11. Which is good news because Detroit is awful. But Swift is Detroits only weapon. Just like McCaffrey was Carolinas only weapon. And their skill sets are the same. I'm excited. I hope this can convince some to invest in this guy. You won't regret it.

Don't think I'm comfortable with an "only weapon argument". I'd rather see a diverse offense than a predictable one bound to lead to injury.

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NFL Beat Writers @32BeatWriters

“Not sure I’ve seen a defensive answer for either D’Andre Swift or Jamaal Williams in coverage. They’re both too smooth & too quick in their routes to handle. That’s a great sign for the offense,but also something def. coaches have to be hoping improves on their side of the ball”

https://twitter.com/32beatwriters/status/1402439993075945472?s=21

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Fair warning, I don't have a link for what I'm about to write as it's from rencent Lions-centric podcasts (Pride of Detroit, Locked on Lions, Detroit Lions Breakdown) or the YouTube channel WoodwardSports. I also watch Motor City Dan Campbell's daily presser before OTAs.

Hey, it's just organized mandatory drills, it's competitive and intense (more than the previous weeks voluntary OTAs) but it's still guys running around in shorts and doing 7-on-7s. It's early, so take it with a grain of salt.

A couple recurring themes:

  • Duce Staley is not your typical Running Backs coach. This guy has immense respect in the league, they have a freaking Duce Staley Drill at the NFL Combine. He's also the Lions Assistant Head Coach - same path DC took to his current job. Meaning if, for instance, Swift burns a LB in drills, yeah he'll trash talk Aaron Glenn. But he'll also go over to the young LB and explain to him what he has to do to prevent that from happening again. You could almost say the Lions offense is being run by the triumvirate of Campbell, Anthony Lynn and Staley. They are constantly huddled up going over things or talking to Goff. This guy is THE MOST VOCAL assistant coach on the practice field. They are clearly grooming him to become a HC in the NFL. 
  • Staley loves Jamaal Williams. So does MCDC. Like, to the point it wouldn't surprise me to see him wearing a "C" on game days. They love his energy, it fits this new regime to a T. They love that he's a seasoned pro who can do a lot of things well. The franchise has him in front of the media a lot, not every day like Goff, but more than Hock or Swift. This guy is on a new team but they have definitely embraced him as a veteran leader.
  • MCDC loves his backup RB and praises him often in press conferences. Now listen, these guys are all about positivity, I wouldn't put too much into that alone. They also love Quintez Cephus and Victor Bolden, neither of whom are likely to see significant snaps come September. I wouldn't go so far as to say they prefer the less talented backup. Maybe they're trying to motivate the younger back. IDK. But he's made a great impression on the folks who make the decisions.
  • Staley is on Swift's case a lot. In his grill, explaining to him what he's doing wrong, and again, praising JW during practice. There's a lot of that, it's a high energy, intense environment rn, very much unlike previous years OTAs. Like night and day compared to the prior regime. I'm not saying D'Andre can't do anything right, but as it stands right now, he's not drawing many compliments from the HC or AHC/RBs assistant.

It's early June. A lot of things will change and evolve over the next three months. The cream will rise to the top. But it's pretty clear that Jamaal Williams is emblematic of the type of leadership and player they want to build this team around.

Full disclosure: I'm buying Swift in redraft this year. I think he can do a lot with 250 or so touches. He's their best playmaker. But definitely keep your eye on this situation because he's got some work to do to win over the staff.

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Say what you want about the hoodie, he'd cut his own mother to save 5 bucks on the cap. Only stupid coaches play guys because they have good attitudes. If all the failed Patriots coaches had a common mistake that's it. They brought in a bunch of low talent ex-patriots to lead by example. Jamaal Williams just isn't good enough to be a threat and I can't see the new coaches making that mistake.

Don't get me wrong, attitude is important. But only if they are good enough to beat the guy behind them on the depth chart.

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In-house Lions beat writer Tim Twentyman reports D'Andre Swift and Jared Goff are "building a nice rapport, especially on option routes."

Per Twentyman, "Swift's ability to catch the football in space, put his foot in the ground, make one cut and then get to full speed in a couple steps stood out this week." We would hope Swift is looking good in padless practices, while we wouldn't expect someone employed by the team to report something negative. It is nevertheless important to remember the sky isn't falling in Swift-land after a spring's worth of panic over Jamaal Williams' role. This is going to be a two-man backfield, but play-maker Swift is still oozing upside in what will be a run-based offense. 

SOURCE: detroitlions.com 

Jun 12, 2021, 2:02 PM ET

 

 

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On 6/9/2021 at 7:21 PM, BobbyLayne said:

 

  • Staley is on Swift's case a lot. In his grill, explaining to him what he's doing wrong, and again, praising JW during practice. There's a lot of that, it's a high energy, intense environment rn, very much unlike previous years OTAs. Like night and day compared to the prior regime. I'm not saying D'Andre can't do anything right, but as it stands right now, he's not drawing many compliments from the HC or AHC/RBs assistant.

Thanks for the post BL.

My impression of this part is that Williams is the coaches example of what they want their players to do and to be like. He is already there.

They have higher expectations of Swift so the criticism and coaching is all about trying to get him there. Jamaal Williams is already maxed out. Giving him a hard time isn't going to help him become a better player.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Thanks for the post BL.

My impression of this part is that Williams is the coaches example of what they want their players to do and to be like. He is already there.

 

They have higher expectations of Swift so the criticism and coaching is all about trying to get him there. Jamaal Williams is already maxed out. Giving him a hard time isn't going to help him become a better player.

I think that's a good call.

In between Duce riding him, Swift was torching everyone in passing drills. Jamaal is a good player and he definitely has a role this fall. But D'Andre is the star and they cleared out his competition bc they plan on relying upon him this year.

My only concern is I don't want to see him overused. We are in full rebuild mode and it would be criminally stupid to give him 300 touches in a year they'll probably only win 4-5 games. They're not tanking, they want to be competitive, but in today's league you're better off spreading the load unless you have a generational talent like Henry.

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I'm going to be really curious to watch Swift's ADP as we get closer to draft season.  It rose a lot coming off of last season but I'm hearing podcasters I like who think he's now substantially overrated based on Lynn's comments.  Perhaps there will be an over-correction? Swift's talent is undeniable but we can't ignore the fact that he wasn't drafted by this regime whereas Holmes/Campbell/Lynn brought in Williams.  It would stand to reason that Lynn would want to feature his best player prominently but what does Bloom always say about the assumption of rational coaching?  I think some caution is warranted.  Lynn is extremely stubborn, as demonstrated by the fact that he was forcing touches last year to Kallen Ballage (and not just when Ekeler was hurt).  It's easy to assume that Lynn will use Swift the way he used Ekeler.  And that may be the case but I don't think it's a given.  The Lions clearly want to be an old-school power football team and Williams is an underrated player in his own right. It's possible they lean on him more than FF owners would like.  On the plus side for Swift, the Lions have a strong line and they will be playing from behind a lot so you'd think that would put him on the field quite a bit. But, again, remember that Williams is a good receiver, too.  A lot has changed for this team -- GM, coaching staff, QB, etc, and we don't know exactly how things will shake out.

This situation is more muddled than I'd like it to be.  I wish I could write off Lynn's comments entirely but I don't think that's wise. With all of this said, I'm still buying Swift, depending on what happens with his ADP.

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That is all fair to point out about the coach. Ballage is a terrible RB and some one else always deserves the ball more than he does. That said Ekeler not the best RB for those dive plays and I can sort of see why he might do that. Those plays do set up other aspects of the offense.

As far as rational coaching goes, the statement presupposes that we are rational or at least more rational than the coaches, and in Blooms case I think he has always been more of a go with your gut over data type of person. So its kind of funny coming from him. Its also arrogant to think we actually know more of the ins and outs of these teams better than their coaches do.

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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

That is all fair to point out about the coach. Ballage is a terrible RB and some one else always deserves the ball more than he does. That said Ekeler not the best RB for those dive plays and I can sort of see why he might do that. Those plays do set up other aspects of the offense.

As far as rational coaching goes, the statement presupposes that we are rational or at least more rational than the coaches, and in Blooms case I think he has always been more of a go with your gut over data type of person. So its kind of funny coming from him. Its also arrogant to think we actually know more of the ins and outs of these teams better than their coaches do.

Fair enough.  The point I was trying to make (and probably didn't communicate correctly) is that just because Swift may be the most talented weapon on the team, it doesn't mean that Lynn and Campbell will use him as much as fantasy owners would like.  

Edited by TS Garp
grammar
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35 minutes ago, TS Garp said:

Fair enough.  The point I was trying to make (and probably didn't communicate correctly) is that just because Swift may be the most talented weapon on the team, it doesn't mean that Lynn and Campbell will use him as much as fantasy owners would like.  

Oh of course.

I would expect William's to have something near 100 touches if healthy all season.

I would expect Swifts opportunities to be twice that with upside for more if he does play very well.

Edited by Biabreakable
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So you guys know that deal with opinions, so take this with a grain of salt. But just to quantify what a few sites expect from the 2021 Lions backfield (full PPR projections):

  1. Swift 192-865-6 46-339-2 212.4 pts (RB17)
    Williams 125-525-4 35-229-1 140.4 pts (RB34)
  2. Swift 194.0-818.9-8.5 64.4-475.6-2.0 187.5 (RB17)
    Williams 134.6-525.8-3.0 36.5-250.8-1.5 102.1 (RB44)
  3. Swift 188-811-6 84 targets 66-495-2 241 (RB15)
    Williams 134-558-3 42 targets 34-249-1 138 (RB41)
  4. Swift 221.4-989-8.5 58.0-446-2.4 266.9 (RB11)
    Williams 141.0-586-3.6 31.9-247-1.4 145.2 (RB37)
  5. Swift 238-1020-8.7 68 targets 53.4-442-2.1 265.81 (RB15)
    Williams 102-411-2.7 34 targets 26.2-220-0 105.47 (RB56)

Four of those came from the public domain, one behind a paywall (not really germane to the discussion so let's leave it at that.)

In mid-June, Swift has an ECR of 30 in full PPR (RB14), and an ADP of 21. Williams ECR is 119 (RB42) and his ADP is 116.

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I would be shocked if Swift is not a top 10 RB.  He is a very talented and gifted runner and a superb receiver. He is running behind a top 5 OL in an offense which will be run heavy.  People are grossly underestimating Goff and the consensus that the Lions offense will be terrible are just wrong..  Sure Williams will eat into Swift's numbers, but true work horse running backs are unicorns in today's NFL.  

Edited by jon_mx
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Think I’m steering away from Anthony Lynn.  Could be wrong, but feel like Melvin Gordon (and his ill-advised holdout) is what discovered Ekeler, not Lynn.  2019, that offense was humming - Gordon comes back, grinds to a halt. Then last year...continued to fart around with lesser talents (Kelley/Ballange).

Just doubt there is parabolic upside here.  Lynn caps it.

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1 hour ago, TheDirtyWord said:

Think I’m steering away from Anthony Lynn.  Could be wrong, but feel like Melvin Gordon (and his ill-advised holdout) is what discovered Ekeler, not Lynn.  2019, that offense was humming - Gordon comes back, grinds to a halt. Then last year...continued to fart around with lesser talents (Kelley/Ballange).

Just doubt there is parabolic upside here.  Lynn caps it.

The 2019 Chargers RB group led the entire NFL in PPR fantasy scoring in 2019.

They were also third in 2018 and dropped to 10th last year which is not that bad considering Ekeler missed 10 games and the other RB's on the team are not much.

The 2018 and 2019 seasons the Chargers RB group went over 30 fantasy points a game, if you split that 50/50 between two RB's most years that would put both of them in the 10-15 range.

I'll take some of that cap.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

The 2019 Chargers RB group led the entire NFL in PPR fantasy scoring in 2019.

They were also third in 2018 and dropped to 10th last year which is not that bad considering Ekeler missed 10 games and the other RB's on the team are not much.

The 2018 and 2019 seasons the Chargers RB group went over 30 fantasy points a game, if you split that 50/50 between two RB's most years that would put both of them in the 10-15 range.

I'll take some of that cap.

I think what limits Swift's upside is the fact that even if Williams were to get hurt, I think it's highly unlikely that Lynn would use him as a three-down back. I think he'd give someone else carries, no matter who that was or how ineffective they might be.  As I said above, I do like Swift and will buy if the price isn't too high, but I do agree with TDW that his upside is capped, especially when you consider that the offense as a whole will be limited and is highly unlikely the reach the heights that the Chargers did.

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1 hour ago, TS Garp said:

I think what limits Swift's upside is the fact that even if Williams were to get hurt, I think it's highly unlikely that Lynn would use him as a three-down back. I think he'd give someone else carries, no matter who that was or how ineffective they might be.  As I said above, I do like Swift and will buy if the price isn't too high, but I do agree with TDW that his upside is capped, especially when you consider that the offense as a whole will be limited and is highly unlikely the reach the heights that the Chargers did.

I see this a lot. I drafted him in dynasty knowing he’d probably never be a super high volume back. I figured the passing game is where most of his value would come from, but he showed to be a good runner and was effective at the goal-line. I do think Jamal will get a decent amount of snaps and so I agree his ceiling is almost surely capped. I’ve always priced that into his value. In ppr leagues I still project him in the RB 10-12 range so still a RB1. Like any RB, he has his injury risks as well.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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12 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I see this a lot. I drafted him in dynasty knowing he’d probably never be a super high volume back. I figured the passing game is where most of his value would come from, but he showed to be a good runner and was effective at the goal-line. I do think Jamal will get a decent amount of snaps and so I agree his ceiling is almost surely capped. I’ve always priced that into his value. In ppr leagues I still project him in the RB 10-12 range so still a RB1. Like any RB, he has his injury risks as well.

I see him in more of the 15-20 range, with guys like Sanders, Montgomery, Carson, CEH, and Dobbins (I'd put him at the top of that tier with Carson and CEH) but behind guys like Ekeler, Akers, Gibson, and Mixon.  In any case, we're splitting hairs. I hear what you're saying that the limited usage is generally baked into his ADP and it's not hard to imagine a scenario where he's the RB10 or so. I'd just feel a lot better about him at the end of the 3rd than I would at the end of the 2nd/beginning of the 3rd. 

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Interesting stuff talking about where Swift should be ranked compared to the other RBs. While 10 to 20 might seem like a pretty large variance we might not be talking about a difference more than 2 points per game here. 2 points per game is a difference between winning and losing, don't get me wrong but as far as projections go its a similar neighborhood.

I decided to try to rank the top 20 RB for the 2021 season just based on the order that I would select them and lets see where Swifts ends up.

CMC

Cook

Kamara

Taylor

Chubb

Elliot

Barkley

Etienne

Henry

A Jones

Swift

Dobbins

Gibson

Eckeler

CEH

Mixon

N Harris

Montgomery

Akers

Sanders

I may have forgotten someone. Almost forgot Barkley.

I bolded the 3 players who are my main targets for this season because of their price and upside to outperform ADP.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

Interesting stuff talking about where Swift should be ranked compared to the other RBs. While 10 to 20 might seem like a pretty large variance we might not be talking about a difference more than 2 points per game here. 2 points per game is a difference between winning and losing, don't get me wrong but as far as projections go its a similar neighborhood.

I decided to try to rank the top 20 RB for the 2021 season just based on the order that I would select them and lets see where Swifts ends up.

CMC

Cook

Kamara

Taylor

Chubb

Elliot

Barkley

Etienne

Henry

A Jones

Swift

Dobbins

Gibson

Eckeler

CEH

Mixon

N Harris

Montgomery

Akers

Sanders

I may have forgotten someone. Almost forgot Barkley.

I bolded the 3 players who are my main targets for this season because of their price and upside to outperform ADP.

 

 

Not sure James Robinson is going away or Etienne is that good, but appreciate the ranks. My gut says Swift disappoints as Jamaal Williams takes more of the workload than anticipated. Lion’s are finally “aware”…and know they are not going anywhere this season. This in my belief leads to more of a split backfield than what is expected.

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3 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Not sure James Robinson is going away or Etienne is that good, but appreciate the ranks. My gut says Swift disappoints as Jamaal Williams takes more of the workload than anticipated. Lion’s are finally “aware”…and know they are not going anywhere this season. This in my belief leads to more of a split backfield than what is expected.

I dont think Robinson is going away either but I think ETN is too good for him to have much more action than William's will.

This is mostly what I think of the players relative talent with some consideration for age.

A projection based ranking might look different than this but I do have a ballpark idea about that for all of these players as well.

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I was curious so I took a gander at current ADP info.

These are mock drafts but it looks like ETN is being massively under rated by the community who participates in these.

I mean these people are taking AJ Dillon and Devin Singletary before ETN.

Sorry thats very very wrong and I am going to take advantage of this as much as I can.

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12 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I was curious so I took a gander at current ADP info.

These are mock drafts but it looks like ETN is being massively under rated by the community who participates in these.

I mean these people are taking AJ Dillon and Devin Singletary before ETN.

Sorry thats very very wrong and I am going to take advantage of this as much as I can.

RB33 (81 overall) at FantasyPros, but still being taken after several roster clogger turds (Fournette/Ronald Jones, James Connor, David Johnson) he should outperform.

I think James Robinson will still be the RB1 but I expect Etienne to produce in the same (or better) efficient manner Swift did as a rookie. He'll line up all over and be very active in the passing game from the start, and his rushing load will probably increase as the season goes along. But who knows with their HC, anything is possible.

WRT Swift, I have him in the 4th Tier:

Tier 1

RB1 Christian McCaffrey

RB2 Dalvin Cook

Tier 2

RB3 Alvin Kamara

RB4 Saquon Barkley

RB5 Derrick Henry 

RB6 Ezekiel Elliott

Tier 3

RB7 Aaron Jones

RB8 Austin Ekeler

RB9 Nick Chubb (very unlikely I'll own him, everyone has him higher)

RB10 Jonathan Taylor (see above)

Tier 4

RB11 Joe Mixon (likely will be dropping lower over the summer)

RB12 Cam Akers

RB13 Antonio Gibson

EB14 D'Andre Swift (has the most upside in this Tier IMO)

Tier 5

RB 15 Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB16 Najee Harris (will probably move him up over the summer)

RB17 J.K. Dobbins

RB18 Chris Carson

I know a lot of people will say Montgomery or maybe even Hunt belong in this tier but I'll be focusing on my WR2/3/4 after this list is depleted. Obviously no one can say with certainty, you have to adjust according to what's actually being taken, but my expectation for my redrafts is roughly 10 RBs will go Round 1 and another 4-6 in Round 2 and Round 3 each. If form holds, I want nothing to do with the running back dead zone we often see in Rounds 4-7 because you are better off taking WRs who hold more value in PPR.

Quite a few articles out there on the hit rate of drafting RBs versus WRs in Rounds 4-7. Google Is your friend. Basically, the opportunity cost of taking timeshare RBs in those rounds is missing out on consistent producers at WR. The replacement level RBs found in say back half of Round 7b and Rounds 8-10 are basically the same hit rate as the RBs people chase in Rounds 4-7a. In general, RBs ranked RB19-30 preseason hit about as often as the guys ranked RB31-42. The hit rate on WR13-24 and WR25-36 is much higher.

Again, don't get locked into a certain strategy, be flexible and react to what your leaguemates are doing on draft day.

_________________

My expectation (and I've been drafting against the same guys for decades) is I'll take an RB in the 1st and *maybe* the 2nd if one falls, then load up on WRs. We start 3 WR and have a W/R/T Flex, 2 RBs, 1 TE, full PPR. If I get one RB who is getting 65% of the workload I'm always better off grabbing as many Top 36 WRs as I can find.

I also wait on QB and TE, bc I can always stream those or one will emerge on the WW. Never draft a K or a DST bc nobody knows who is going to be good for FF at those two in late August and the replacement level I find on the WW will produce as good or better than anyone I draft.

Edited by BobbyLayne
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12 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

In FFPC dynasty startups ETN is going as RB16, Swift as RB8. In FBG redrafts ETN is going RB22 and Swift RB16. FWIW.

Yeah real drafts very different than the mock drafts.

Swift at 8 might actually be too high in my opinion but not by much.

RB 16 for ETN is much more reasonable than those mock drafts.

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On 6/3/2021 at 2:40 PM, BobbyLayne said:

As a Lions fan, I want Jamaal to see 175+ touches. I want our most talented back to still be healthy at the end of his rookie deal.

As a prospective buyer in redraft, "we'll go with the hot hand" does not deter me. Williams is a good all around back who does a lot of things well, but D'Andre dwarfs him in the talent department. He'll be very efficient with his 250-275 touches this year and I feel pretty confident 1.3-1.4K 8 TDs and 65 receptions are his floor. Could easily see him approach 1500 and 85 (TDs are variable, who knows.)

But yet not a top 32 back according to PFF.  1100 and 60 are closer to his ceiling.  You can't put up 1500 and 85 in a 60/40 shared backfield.  

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21 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

RB33 (81 overall) at FantasyPros, but still being taken after several roster clogger turds (Fournette/Ronald Jones, James Connor, David Johnson) he should outperform.

I think James Robinson will still be the RB1 but I expect Etienne to produce in the same (or better) efficient manner Swift did as a rookie. He'll line up all over and be very active in the passing game from the start, and his rushing load will probably increase as the season goes along. But who knows with their HC, anything is possible.

WRT Swift, I have him in the 4th Tier:

Tier 1

RB1 Christian McCaffrey

RB2 Dalvin Cook

Tier 2

RB3 Alvin Kamara

RB4 Saquon Barkley

RB5 Derrick Henry 

RB6 Ezekiel Elliott

Tier 3

RB7 Aaron Jones

RB8 Austin Ekeler

RB9 Nick Chubb (very unlikely I'll own him, everyone has him higher)

RB10 Jonathan Taylor (see above)

Tier 4

RB11 Joe Mixon (likely will be dropping lower over the summer)

RB12 Cam Akers

RB13 Antonio Gibson

EB14 D'Andre Swift (has the most upside in this Tier IMO)

Tier 5

RB 15 Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB16 Najee Harris (will probably move him up over the summer)

RB17 J.K. Dobbins

RB18 Chris Carson

I know a lot of people will say Montgomery or maybe even Hunt belong in this tier but I'll be focusing on my WR2/3/4 after this list is depleted. Obviously no one can say with certainty, you have to adjust according to what's actually being taken, but my expectation for my redrafts is roughly 10 RBs will go Round 1 and another 4-6 in Round 2 and Round 3 each. If form holds, I want nothing to do with the running back dead zone we often see in Rounds 4-7 because you are better off taking WRs who hold more value in PPR.

Quite a few articles out there on the hit rate of drafting RBs versus WRs in Rounds 4-7. Google Is your friend. Basically, the opportunity cost of taking timeshare RBs in those rounds is missing out on consistent producers at WR. The replacement level RBs found in say back half of Round 7b and Rounds 8-10 are basically the same hit rate as the RBs people chase in Rounds 4-7a. In general, RBs ranked RB19-30 preseason hit about as often as the guys ranked RB31-42. The hit rate on WR13-24 and WR25-36 is much higher.

Again, don't get locked into a certain strategy, be flexible and react to what your leaguemates are doing on draft day.

_________________

My expectation (and I've been drafting against the same guys for decades) is I'll take an RB in the 1st and *maybe* the 2nd if one falls, then load up on WRs. We start 3 WR and have a W/R/T Flex, 2 RBs, 1 TE, full PPR. If I get one RB who is getting 65% of the workload I'm always better off grabbing as many Top 36 WRs as I can find.

I also wait on QB and TE, bc I can always stream those or one will emerge on the WW. Never draft a K or a DST bc nobody knows who is going to be good for FF at those two in late August and the replacement level I find on the WW will produce as good or better than anyone I draft.

I see Swift as better than all the tier 3 guys, but not quite the level of the tier 2 guys.  

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8 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah real drafts very different than the mock drafts.

Swift at 8 might actually be too high in my opinion but not by much.

RB 16 for ETN is much more reasonable than those mock drafts.

Yes, and I've been getting ETN in the 4th round of redrafts predominantly. Even snuck into the early 5th on me once.

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5 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Yes, and I've been getting ETN in the 4th round of redrafts predominantly. Even snuck into the early 5th on me once.

Thats good to know.

While I wont be going as far as you have this situation does have me wanting to add more leagues.

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