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Dynasty & Redraft: RB D’Andre Swift, Lions


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2 hours ago, zed2283 said:

I'll have to watch it again with those things in mind, but my first impression was that Florida was bottling him up.

Yeah, that's exactly what I thought watching that. I mean, one play is from the pistol and he barely even gets the ball before he's being tackled. I haven't seen enough clips of these guys to figure out who I like best, but from the ones I've seen, it looks like him. 

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I'm in the belief Swift landed in the worst possible spot for a RB and it has zero to do with Kerryon Johnson and everything to do with being a Detroit Lion. The Lions have been awful at running the b

They never are. Except next year.

Typical loser Lions. They should have cut bait with his guy before the sun went down in the D Sunday. You have to send a message to the team that dropping game winning 4th quarter TDs is never accepta

3 hours ago, zed2283 said:

I'll have to watch it again with those things in mind, but my first impression was that Florida was bottling him up.

They definitely did bottle him up, just pointing out a game that made me come down to earth on him

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The Athletic's Dane Brugler ranks Georgia RB D'Andre Swift second in his rankings of the top running backs in the 2020 NFL Draft class.

The only tailback Brugler ranks above Swift is Ohio State's JK Dobbins. As the analyst notes, Swift was very effective with the ball in his hands with the Bulldogs, and he leaves Georgia as the leader in yards per carry at 6.56. "Swift is a patient athlete with the short-area explosiveness and speed to pick, slide and juke, making him tough to tackle one-on-one," Brugler writes. He does note that the 5-foot-9, 215-pound needs to show more in the passing game, but he makes an effort as a pass blocker and can be used in the screen game. Some of this is going to depend on preference, but Swift has a real chance to be that first tailback off the board come April, for all the reasons Brugler lists.

SOURCE: The Athletic

Feb 8, 2020, 12:43 PM ET

 

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My personal gut instinct when first watching this guy run was that he's a total stud. Enough people are throwing shade on him to cast doubt. At this point, people have his value similar to Josh Jacobs's. I think that's a stretch for Swift, but what do I know? Only that upon seeing him he looked better than the other backs coming out, except maybe Dobbins. 

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21 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

He seems to be the consensus 1.01 precombine. 

I doubt he'll be consensus post-combine.  The reason I say that is because Taylor is likely to blaze the 40, Akers will look so great in drills and Dobbins is likely to be very solid all around.  Swift will have to have a special kind of day in order to keep pace.  That along with whichever dark horse type of RB shows well, we could be looking at Swift as the bottom of the top4.  That is, if they all participate.  

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10 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I doubt he'll be consensus post-combine.  The reason I say that is because Taylor is likely to blaze the 40, Akers will look so great in drills and Dobbins is likely to be very solid all around.  Swift will have to have a special kind of day in order to keep pace.  That along with whichever dark horse type of RB shows well, we could be looking at Swift as the bottom of the top4.  That is, if they all participate.  

I believe the FF community is undeterred and will select Swift 1.01 in most dynasty rookie drafts.  That doesn't mean you aren't right, it just means most FF players have already made their mind up IMO.

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16 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I believe the FF community is undeterred and will select Swift 1.01 in most dynasty rookie drafts.  That doesn't mean you aren't right, it just means most FF players have already made their mind up IMO.

I think Swift is the most talented RB in the draft based on the eye test - the combine will shed a little more light on things as well. However I think the NFL draft will also help shape things as we’ll see which RB is the first off the board and where each of them land. We all know That situation plays a big role for RBs to succeed and fantasy owners need them to produce early to get their value out of them.

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18 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think Swift is the most talented RB in the draft based on the eye test - the combine will shed a little more light on things as well. However I think the NFL draft will also help shape things as we’ll see which RB is the first off the board and where each of them land. We all know That situation plays a big role for RBs to succeed and fantasy owners need them to produce early to get their value out of them.

He is for me. The others really don’t interest me much but it’s early. I’m tempted to shop picks later when the hype picks up. Not sure this draft is quite as good as the hype.

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34 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

He is for me. The others really don’t interest me much but it’s early. I’m tempted to shop picks later when the hype picks up. Not sure this draft is quite as good as the hype.

They never are. Except next year.

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1 hour ago, voiceofunreason said:

He is for me. The others really don’t interest me much but it’s early. I’m tempted to shop picks later when the hype picks up. Not sure this draft is quite as good as the hype.

I gladly traded Odell Beckham for the 1.5 in a dynasty league....twice.

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4 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

With Etienne and Hubbard and Harris going back to school, that hurt the rbs at the top and depth. This draft is still awesome in my opinion. There aren’t any Zeke’s but there are about 10 or so prospects that would typically go top 5. 

Agreed... this year's rookie draft smells like 2017 rookie draft, which didnt have an once-a-generation player (i.e. Zeke or Barkley) who is heavily-favored #1 pick.  

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8 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I believe the FF community is undeterred and will select Swift 1.01 in most dynasty rookie drafts.  That doesn't mean you aren't right, it just means most FF players have already made their mind up IMO.

You may be right but it feels like Swift is getting picked apart lately and I think after the combine (and depending on draft landing spot of course) he will fall below Taylor and Dobbins in most dynasty rankings. It just feels that way to me. 

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16 minutes ago, RushHour said:

You may be right but it feels like Swift is getting picked apart lately and I think after the combine (and depending on draft landing spot of course) he will fall below Taylor and Dobbins in most dynasty rankings. It just feels that way to me. 

Then the person in your league sitting at 1.3 must be giddy.

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41 minutes ago, RushHour said:

You may be right but it feels like Swift is getting picked apart lately and I think after the combine (and depending on draft landing spot of course) he will fall below Taylor and Dobbins in most dynasty rankings. It just feels that way to me. 

I most assuredly do not feel that way. Could fall behind Dobbins but Taylor is the RB I think is going to fall, can easily see him falling to like RB6.

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17 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

not after he runs in the 4.3s at the combine...

 

ETA- I think there is zero chance JT falls after the combine. He likely tests the best of all the RBs. The only reason he falls is if Moss or Akers goes before him in the draft, and/or of they are drafted in a very favorable situation

Taylor won’t test that great IMO and he does stand the greatest chance to fall in the NFL draft and could fall to 1.5 in dynasty drafts

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

 

also, the whole "tread on the tires" is a false correlation to NFL success or injury risk

You can have that opinion all you want and I' have zero care to talk you out of that opinion but I know for fact that it matters to NFL decision makers and I know for a fact it matters to me.

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19 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Taylor won’t test that great IMO and he does stand the greatest chance to fall in the NFL draft and could fall to 1.5 in dynasty drafts

Honestly based on my own rankings and rankings of people I view as having credibility if he went 1.5 he'd not even be dropping based on where he's ranked right now.

I've said this before in another thread and I'll say it again. I got Swift and Dobbins a cut above the rest. Got 4 other RB's in the next tier and could easily see any of them being my third RB and I could easily see me preferring Jeudy or Lamb over them.

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31 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

the exact same source quoted taylor 1 month apart in the 4.3s and 4.4s.  I would say that source is officially throwing **** at the wall.  

 

https://withthefirstpick.com/2019/06/13/jonathan-taylor-wisconsin-running-back-2020-nfl-draft-scouting-report/ 

Did this source obtain a 40 yard time 1 mont after writing that article or do they just write to appease an audience?

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

not after he runs in the 4.3s at the combine...

 

ETA- I think there is zero chance JT falls after the combine. He likely tests the best of all the RBs. The only reason he falls is if Moss or Akers goes before him in the draft, and/or of they are drafted in a very favorable situation

Yes, IMO Taylor will be the consensus 1.01 after the draft. He'll test well at the combine and I believe he'll be the first RB taken in the draft. 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Do a lot of peoppe here feel Swift can be an every down back? That's my biggest issue with him; I'm just not sure he can be. I'd like to hear some points as to why someone might think he can

I guess I would answer by turning the question back to you - why couldn't he be?

He's 216 pounds and I've seen him be able to handle inside power runs. Ill admit I don't know much about his blocking yet but he looks like he can be useful in the passing game as a receiver.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Do a lot of peoppe here feel Swift can be an every down back? That's my biggest issue with him; I'm just not sure he can be. I'd like to hear some points as to why someone might think he can

The way I imagine Swift's role in the NFL is a better version of Phillip Lindsay.  Used as a workhorse (most of the time), but also needs to be rotated out.  But there were plenty of RB's last year used the same type of way and completely smashed.  Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara all hovering just below 60% snap share.  

From last year there's only 1 RB over 90% of their teams snaps (McCaffrey), there's only 2 RB's over 80% (Zeke and Fournette), and 2 more above 70% (Bell and Gurley).  You don't need be out there every play to be a top fantasy producer.  

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13 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

If Taylor runs a slow 40 I would agree completely. I'm just not sure I see that happening. I see Dobbins, Akers, and Taylor generating a lot of post combine buzz after they test out. As I said, we will see in a few short weeks. 

 

Personally I'm having a hard time ranking any of these RBs. Taylor has shown drops and fumbling, Swift has been injury prone and has not been a work horse, Akers has several questions, and Moss seems slow and a Montgomery clone so far... Dobbins may be the one with the least questionmarks. I'm hoping there is more clarity to this group after the combine. 

We got caught up in Taylor's 40 and for sure if he ran a 4.3 that's sit up and notice speed but I don't think the 40 is that key for RB's. It's one of the 4 workout numbers I look at but in terms of importance I'd say it's third, though it does play a part to some degree in the second metric.

For me I doubt the combine will clear much up and fact I put so little stock in the 40 is one of those reasons. Now what I have done in years past, is drastically lower a RB because he tests so poorly across the board in the 4 key workout numbers I take stock in examing.  Stepfan Taylor and Alex Collins would be examples and despite Collins brief run I'd consider that a success. Last year it came back to bite me on Devin Singletary, Holyfield would be a success.

The primary reason I'm not as high on Taylor as you and why most non-fantasy people I pay attention to and give some some respect are also not high on him is his lack of passing down skills. I totally get they involved him more as a receiver last year but I don't think he's got three down skills now.  It's fair to say I almost look at RB's reverse of most people, I focus on what they can do in the passing game first and and analyze what they bring as runners next. I'm the kind of guy who still has trouble warming up to Derrick Henry or at least valuing him on par with his production. I did say I almost look at RB's in reverse  of receiving ability first but obvious exceptions would be someone like a Cohen,  whose game is almost entirely in the passing game. If  I was just trying to locate the best rusher in this draft things would be a bit more difficult, Taylor would for sure be  a candidate. And of course things don't always work out like we think,  for example I thought Fournette was a solid 40'ish catch RB but I don't think anyone considered him a 76 catch RB, probably would have hit 80 if he had played the last week.

So for me I see Swift and Dobbins as being the most likely to be three down backs. That's why they remain in a tier above and would take some kind of injury coming out or horrendous landing spot to move me from that position.  I don't mind saying I have Hellaire third and I think he might run over 4.6. If it's low 4.6 it won't move me, if it's 4.65 or higher he better have some amazing 3 cone or that's pushing it for me. Out of my top 6 tiered RB's I would say the combine is most critical for Hellaire and Moss because I don't need you to run a blazing 40, but I can't have you performing like Holyfield last year and remain a first round or if as bad as he did even a second round consideration.

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46 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I think he has the skill set. my concern is pass blocking (I just dont know how good he is here) and I have injury concerns as he always seemed banged up being in a committee in college. That's my biggest concern. 

Swift, to me, seems good at everything, but great at nothing. 

I see the same about Dobbins too, except I'd argue that he could be great at separation and speed compared to Swift. 

Taylor has concerns in the passing game, however actually watching him, WI wasnt opposed to getting him the ball or wouldnt put a different back in for that role. 

Being in a committee at these top programs isn’t a concern for me because these programs have so many top recruits and they have to keep them happy. Injuries are tough to predict so unless it looks like it’s something that could linger long term or affect the future I don’t read into it too much. Pass blocking could be an issue but he looks like a capable target which is a plus.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

not saying I agree with this statement, but it's thought provoking

Oof. I'm totally lost now. The eye test had Swift, Dobbins, Taylor, just like you had. Not sure what more can be done until the combine and draft.  

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8 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

good point on committees

 

I want to like him a lot. at this point I have Swift, dobbins, taylor in that order, but it's been tough to figure these guys out. 

I’ve also read that these top talents especially at running back are choosing to go to these schools where they know it’s going to be a committee because they are high profile schools AND they will have fresh legs for the NFL therefore they’ll likely make more $$$$$!!!

I would have never thought of that until I read it myself and after thinking about it with these younger players these days it makes total sense.

Bama, LSU, Ohio St...big time schools why else would you go there?

Tex

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22 hours ago, Zyphros said:

The way I imagine Swift's role in the NFL is a better version of Phillip Lindsay.  Used as a workhorse (most of the time), but also needs to be rotated out.  But there were plenty of RB's last year used the same type of way and completely smashed.  Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara all hovering just below 60% snap share.  

From last year there's only 1 RB over 90% of their teams snaps (McCaffrey), there's only 2 RB's over 80% (Zeke and Fournette), and 2 more above 70% (Bell and Gurley).  You don't need be out there every play to be a top fantasy producer.  

I'm noticing the main difference between these rbs is their coaches. Fournette and Zeke are no more 3 down backs than Cook, Mixon, or Kamara. Swift definitely has it in him as well, it's only a matter of whether his coach wants to give him the opportunity.

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8 hours ago, BigTex said:

I’ve also read that these top talents especially at running back are choosing to go to these schools where they know it’s going to be a committee because they are high profile schools AND they will have fresh legs for the NFL therefore they’ll likely make more $$$$$!!!

I would have never thought of that until I read it myself and after thinking about it with these younger players these days it makes total sense.

Bama, LSU, Ohio St...big time schools why else would you go there?

Tex

Nick Saban is on record saying he recruits RB's telling them that exact thing.  That they aren't going to be "the guy" and they'll be fresh after their time there.  It makes total sense.  

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54 minutes ago, Faust said:

Not that he headline is not true but he has Lamb ranked exactly one spot ahead of Jeudy in his overall, they are his 8th and 9th ranked players. That article failing to mention that almost comes across as a pro--Lamb piece,  whoever wrote almost seemed to try and put Jeudy in the next tier.

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