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Dynasty: QB Gardner Minshew II, Jaguars - The clock has struck midnight on Minshew Mania!


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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

It kind of is a no win situation. I'd personally go back to Foles, he looked really good before he got hurt(in very limited work) and they thought enough of him to sign him to a relatively big contract. 

Minshew has been good, exceptional for a 6th round rookie, but I feel like Foles would be having even more success, and Minshew's youth isn't a huge factor, because you can always go back to him. Jaguars have a nice schedule coming up, and in my opinion could still very much win this division, so I'd play whomever I thought was the better player right now, and not be concerned about optics.

This is how I'd be thinking about it if I was Jax.  You signed him to the contract for a reason, seems like need to see what he has to offer before just moving on.  This has some similarities to the Matt Flynn/ Wilson scenario when Wilson was drafted, but the difference is Minshew didn't beat out Foles for the job.  He has played well, but is it enough to just toss Foles away.  I'm not so sure about that.

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it is only one game and the NFL is a tough place to make long shots come true, but Minshew has been an overcomer his entire life. He started at my local high school in Brandon Mississippi his last thr

Put me in the crowd that thinks this isn't even a question right now. Would have said Minshew heading into the season. The only thing anyone can hold against Minshew is his draft position. Minshe

Anybody call this guy Fu Minshew yet? I think that may be perfect.

Another compelling reason to not play Foles.... 

If you want to get out of that contract, right now you can probably just trade him in the offseason to a QB needy team.  If he plays and doesn't play well, you will be stuck with him next year as a high paid backup, possibly preventing you from taking full advantage on your QB on a rookie deal - and with a 6th rounder you only get 4 years. 

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5 hours ago, RushHour said:

I like Foles a lot and think he is still very underrated but I'm not sure why anyone would assume that he'd play at a higher level or give the team a better chance to win than Minshew. If Foles is actually better than Minshew at this point, the difference would be marginal. I agree that they will probably go back to Foles (unless the Jags win this week) because this is the NFL, but I think it would be the wrong decision.

Why do you not think Foles would be an upgrade? He's a solid NFL vet, and the Jags suddenly have a pretty diverse set of weapons. Foles has been a good QB his entire career, other than a brief stretch in a Jeff Fisher offense, where everyone who isn't Steve McNair struggled. 

I'm not saying there is a Bridgewater/Brees like difference between Minshew/Foles, but I think the difference is more than marginal. 

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

Why do you not think Foles would be an upgrade? He's a solid NFL vet, and the Jags suddenly have a pretty diverse set of weapons. Foles has been a good QB his entire career, other than a brief stretch in a Jeff Fisher offense, where everyone who isn't Steve McNair struggled. 

I'm not saying there is a Bridgewater/Brees like difference between Minshew/Foles, but I think the difference is more than marginal. 

Minshew is destroying Foles' career numbers in per game stats.  His career passer rating is 10 points higher.  I think it's also fair to say that Foles has played in far more favorable offensive systems in his career?

Foles is a vet, but he has had bad runs mixed with some really good but not that long runs.  

I think Foles is Drew Bledsoe here and Minshew is Brady/Romo emerging behind him.   TBF Minshew is destroying Brady first season as a starter as well, and Brady was a year older and not a rookie. 

Check out the comparison to elite QBs first season starting.  Rookie Minshew is on pace for 3900 passing yards and he only has 2 Interceptions. Foles career high is 2800 yards in that elite season he had in his second year with the Eagles.  Minshew's numbers are close to Rodgers, who forced Favre to be run out of town. 

 

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I think Minshew is a great story. He's a guy you just kind of root for, no matter how you feel about the Jaguars. I'm just not seeing the dilemma here. 

The Jaguars are 4-4. They beat terrible teams (Jets, Bengals, Broncos, Titans) and lose to good teams (Saints, Panthers, Texans, Chiefs). Are they trying to be the kings of bad teams, or are they trying to win a title?  Does anyone think Foles would have lost to the teams they beat? Might they have beaten a team currently in the loss column? 

Look, maybe Minshew is the long-term answer and they stumbled upon their starter. But right now they don't beat anyone good (Titans have won a couple since their QB change). How can you pay Foles all that money and not see if he can get you over the hump? How do you not at least find out if he's the missing piece to being a title contender? I say you give him his job back. If he flops, worry about it in the offseason. Minshew isn't going anywhere.  

Edited by Neil Beaufort Zod
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There’s always the risk of a Brock Osweiler situation, where putting the old vet back in so deeply offends the ego of the youngster that he never recovers and holds a grudge for years.

Somehow, Menshew doesn’t strike me as having a mental makeup anywhere near as delicate as Brock (plus he seems more talented).  Jags are in a win-win here with two decent starters at a position where many teams are struggling to find one.

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9 hours ago, Gandalf said:

I don’t know how you go back to Foles with what Minshew has done as a rookie. The money is a sunk cost. 

how much money you think the jags made from minshew schwag? 

kinda sucks for nick foles....i love bdn but i dont see how you make a change the jags have some swagger now...

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Barring a holdout, it shouldn't really matter to the Jags who they're giving the money to at the position, so long as they get commensurate performance for the money thrown at said position. Big caveat about job satisfaction and happiness, though. 

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Going by the numbers, Minshew has been so impressive that benching him for Nick Foles would be the most notorious example of coaching malpractice in the history of the league. 

I'd like to see a list of rookie QBs who have had better numbers through half a season in the history of the league.  Based on the hall of famers I've spot checked, Minshew is probably near the top, especially if you only look at actual rookies and not older players getting their first starting job. 

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Unless Minshew has an awful game this week i can't see how they can bench him.  A lot of the JAX offensive success has been due to Minshew being able to extend plays and run when appropriate.  Foles can't do those things near as well.

He's on pace for 3952 passing/26 TD's/4 INT's.  Plus 402 rushing yards.

Those are good numbers for a seasoned vet.  

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Thoughts on Minshew this week in London vs. a poor Houston team that just lost Watt? On paper I like Minshew this week. Cons for me are the travel to London. Goff did well there so the travel/time zone stuff might be overblown. Minshew has some sort of a shoulder injury. I suppose they can shoot him up before the game, so if he continues to be full at practice he should be ok I think. His WRs also seemed banged up, which probably concerns me the most. Pro's are the 18 PTDs and 280 a game Houston has been giving up while Watt was playing and the fact that Houston should be able to score points to dictate a JAX passing script. I have Allen as a second choice, but he's not a slam dunk by any means. Sticking with Gardner starting for now, but my gut is telling me that Minshew might fall flat despite the juicy match-up. Not sure why.

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1 hour ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

Unless Minshew has an awful game this week i can't see how they can bench him.  A lot of the JAX offensive success has been due to Minshew being able to extend plays and run when appropriate.  Foles can't do those things near as well.

Foles can read defenses better.

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9 minutes ago, simey said:

Foles can read defenses better.

Not saying this is not true, but what are you basing it on?  It seems like an arbitrary comment that would be difficult to truly quantify, unless you are somehow dialed into the NFL or some sort of scout.  Any veteran QB should probably be able to read NFL defenses better than a rookie - I get that.  Is that basically what you are saying, or is there actual evidence aside from just that?  Minshew's TD/INT ratio and off the charts (for a rookie) success against the blitz would suggest that he actually reads defenses pretty well.

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5 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

Not saying this is not true, but what are you basing it on?  It seems like an arbitrary comment that would be difficult to truly quantify, unless you are somehow dialed into the NFL or some sort of scout.  Any veteran QB should probably be able to read NFL defenses better than a rookie - I get that.  Is that basically what you are saying, or is there actual evidence aside from just that?  Minshew's TD/INT ratio and off the charts (for a rookie) success against the blitz would suggest that he actually reads defenses pretty well.

Based on comments made by Minshew and Marrone.

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26 minutes ago, simey said:

Based on comments made by Minshew and Marrone.

I'm sure it's true... But how long will it be true?  If a rookie who can't read defenses as well as vet,but is putting up amazing numbers, it seems obvious to stick with the guy whose weakness in reading defenses, the skill that is most likely to improve over time. 

Flynn probably read defenses better than Wilson in his rookie year. 

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2 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Going by the numbers, Minshew has been so impressive that benching him for Nick Foles would be the most notorious example of coaching malpractice in the history of the league. 

I'd like to see a list of rookie QBs who have had better numbers through half a season in the history of the league.  Based on the hall of famers I've spot checked, Minshew is probably near the top, especially if you only look at actual rookies and not older players getting their first starting job. 

Do you have him in fantasy? Just curious. You really seem to be beating the drum for him, and he has gone 4-4.  I don't think benching Minshew for Foles would be the most notorious example of coaching malpractice in the history of the league. Minshew has done well, and he has also had some rookie moments. Foles is more experienced and has led a team to the SB.  He started off well throwing a touchdown this season, but unfortunately got hurt immediately after. A poster brought up above that the Jags with Minshew under center have beaten the bad teams, and have lost to the good ones. Foles may have helped beat one of those good ones. We will never know. I don't believe Minshew is better than Foles at this point, but I think he has improved as the season has progressed. He has definitely improved since his days at ECU (my alma mater). The Jags have a hard decision, and I won't fault them for whatever they decide. At least this time around it is which good QB to go with, and not which bad one. Things are looking up in Jacksonville.

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7 minutes ago, simey said:

Do you have him in fantasy? Just curious. You really seem to be beating the drum for him, and he has gone 4-4.  I don't think benching Minshew for Foles would be the most notorious example of coaching malpractice in the history of the league. Minshew has done well, and he has also had some rookie moments. Foles is more experienced and has led a team to the SB.  He started off well throwing a touchdown this season, but unfortunately got hurt immediately after. A poster brought up above that the Jags with Minshew under center have beaten the bad teams, and have lost to the good ones. Foles may have helped beat one of those good ones. We will never know. I don't believe Minshew is better than Foles at this point, but I think he has improved as the season has progressed. He has definitely improved since his days at ECU (my alma mater). The Jags have a hard decision, and I won't fault them for whatever they decide. At least this time around it is which good QB to go with, and not which bad one. Things are looking up in Jacksonville.

Yes, but only in 1 of 7 leagues so it's not like I stand that much to gain in fantasy.  I own Foles in 2 leagues so I guess I would benefit most from Foles getting the job back.

To be fair I said if you go by the numbers it would be quite possibly the most notorious example of malpractice, because Minshew's numbers are amazing.  His numbers are on par with what Aaron Rodgers did his first year starting (4th year in the league).  He's in hall of fame territory so far going by the numbers.

Numbers are not everything, but as time passes the scouting of what actually happened fades and the numbers remain fresh - to fill in the forgotten story.  Looking back and only having the benefit of stats, you'd be flabbergasted that a rookie QB with a 98.9 Passer Rating got benched for Nick Foles.  Only 7 players in the entire history of the sport have put up those kind of numbers at Minshew's age or younger.

 

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According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Gardner Minshew has a "chance" to retain the starting job upon Nick Foles' return in Week 11.

With Foles fully expected to return in Week 11 following a broken collarbone suffered in Jacksonville's opener, Minshew will have a lot riding on Sunday's game in London, the Jags' final contest before their Week 10 bye. Alluding to the uncertainty of Jacksonville's quarterback hierarchy, Rapoport said the situation is "up in the air" while adding that it's "no guarantee" Foles returns to his starting job upon his return to active status. A fan favorite and leading Rookie of the Year candidate, Minshew has done a remarkable job in Foles' stead, producing an electric 98.9 quarterback rating in eight appearances while submitting an equally brilliant 13-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. It will be a tough decision for coach Doug Marrone, who must now choose between a wildly popular cultural phenomenon and a former Super Bowl MVP signed to an $88-million contract.

RELATED: 

Nick Foles

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Nov 3, 2019, 9:05 AM ET

 

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Houston is giving him fits. NO did, too. I don't see any easy way to deal with the situation. I'm not entirely impressed with his arm strength or athleticism but he has great pocket presence and can seemingly read defenses already.

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Gardner Minshew completed 27-of-47 passes for 309 yards with two interceptions in Week 9 against the Texans.

He also took three sacks and lost two fumbles. This was only the second game in eight starts that Minshew failed to throw a touchdown. Minshew fell apart with four fourth-quarter turnovers — including three on consecutive drives. The down game couldn't have come at a worse time for Minshew with Nick Foles returning after the bye. The Jaguars have yet to announce who will be their Week 11 starter, but the late game meltdown has Minshew at risk of losing the job.

Nov 3, 2019, 1:00 PM ET

 

 

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He certainly left the door open for Marrone to go with Foles. 

After watching the game I'm not sure Foles would have done better.  Perhaps if he's more decisive, but it looked like Houston just hung back and  rushed 4, daring Minshew to throw into their zone all game long.  Didn't look like he was missing open WRs too often, but it's hard to see downfield every play.  JAX weapons are obviously lacking with Westbrook out., especially today against that defensive scheme

The two Interceptions were pretty bad.  WRs wide open on both and he overthrew by a mile.  Same route it looked like.  Made the right read at least... 

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I just don't see how they don't at least try Foles at this point.  They haven't had a chance to evaluate him yet, and spent big money for him.  Minshew got some great experience and reps in, putting him on the bench behind a Superbowl MVP isn't going to kill him.  If Foles can't get it done you move you have Minshew ready to plug back in.  The game against Houston just makes that decision a little easier imo.

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On 11/3/2019 at 1:15 PM, kittenmittens said:

He certainly left the door open for Marrone to go with Foles. 

After watching the game I'm not sure Foles would have done better.  Perhaps if he's more decisive, but it looked like Houston just hung back and  rushed 4, daring Minshew to throw into their zone all game long.  Didn't look like he was missing open WRs too often, but it's hard to see downfield every play.  JAX weapons are obviously lacking with Westbrook out., especially today against that defensive scheme

The two Interceptions were pretty bad.  WRs wide open on both and he overthrew by a mile.  Same route it looked like.  Made the right read at least... 

I agree about the zone. Trouble is he just doesn’t have the zip to fit it in tight windows. So if they can’t run the ball effectively in those scenarios then that will be the formula to shut them down going forward. 

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Anyone else find it strange, or to be more unkind, that it is bad leadership to not confidently assert the starter immediately and without question. 

You have to make a decision? It isn't clear? That invites disunity in the locker room.  At least they announced it on Tuesday and not Sunday like Maronne initially said. 

I cant see any positives other than for the QB who doesn't get the job, but that can be handled entirely internally. 

IMO it's bad leadership.  Interested in the counter points that might contradict that. 

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On 11/4/2019 at 4:57 PM, King of the Jungle said:

I agree about the zone. Trouble is he just doesn’t have the zip to fit it in tight windows. So if they can’t run the ball effectively in those scenarios then that will be the formula to shut them down going forward. 

That's pretty common though. Minshew has about average arm strength for an NFL QB. 

Watson has well below average arm strength.  Does he not have the zip to fit it into tight windows? 

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1 minute ago, kittenmittens said:

Anyone else find it strange, or to be more unkind, that it is bad leadership to not confidently assert the starter immediately and without question. 

You have to make a decision? It isn't clear? That invites disunity in the locker room.  At least they announced it on Tuesday and not Sunday like Maronne initially said. 

I cant see any positives other than for the QB who doesn't get the job, but that can be handled entirely internally. 

IMO it's bad leadership.  Interested in the counter points that might contradict that. 

There was a video last week of Foles on the practice field and he wasn't even using his left arm when catching balls. So I would think a reasonable period to evaluate his health and risk of a setback was prudent.

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3 minutes ago, PhantomJB said:

There was a video last week of Foles on the practice field and he wasn't even using his left arm when catching balls. So I would think a reasonable period to evaluate his health and risk of a setback was prudent.

Good point.  I would say in that case you say "Foles is the starter when healthy."

It should not come down to evaluating performance in just the most recent game.  They should have known what the plan was or at least publicly stood firm in one direction.  You can always spin a pivot to the other option. 

Maronne isn't a good coach so I guess it's about what I expect. 

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4 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Anyone else find it strange, or to be more unkind, that it is bad leadership to not confidently assert the starter immediately and without question. 

You have to make a decision? It isn't clear? That invites disunity in the locker room.  At least they announced it on Tuesday and not Sunday like Maronne initially said. 

I cant see any positives other than for the QB who doesn't get the job, but that can be handled entirely internally. 

IMO it's bad leadership.  Interested in the counter points that might contradict that. 

Eh, it could be that they just wanted time to have a face-to-face meeting with Minshew before making the announcement.

The whole "invites disunity in the locker room" stuff is just fodder for the Skips and Stephen A's of the world. The locker room doesn't care unless a clearly inferior player (or a total jerk) is pushed ahead of a better player.

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4 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Eh, it could be that they just wanted time to have a face-to-face meeting with Minshew before making the announcement.

The whole "invites disunity in the locker room" stuff is just fodder for the Skips and Stephen A's of the world. The locker room doesn't care unless a clearly inferior player (or a total jerk) is pushed ahead of a better player.

If they had to wait until after the game, it shows that they didn't have a decision and could waffle back and forth.  Here Nick, the job is yours now because Minshew had a bad game.   What happens if Foles has a bad game in his first action? 

A lot of leadership is thinking about what message your actions are taking and managing perception.  Is this a horrible gaffe? No, but it is also not really a great way to handle it IMO. 

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1 minute ago, kittenmittens said:

If they had to wait until after the game, it shows that they didn't have a decision and could waffle back and forth. 

Well, yeah. If Minshew threw for 500 yards and 6 TDs, of course, they weren't going to bench him.

 

2 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Here Nick, the job is yours now because Minshew had a bad game.   What happens if Foles has a bad game in his first action? 

If Foles plays worse than Minshew, then Foles goes to the bench. He knows this. He's not going to let it affect his game, because he is not a 12-year-old girl.

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1 minute ago, [scooter] said:

Well, yeah. If Minshew threw for 500 yards and 6 TDs, of course, they weren't going to bench him.

 

If Foles plays worse than Minshew, then Foles goes to the bench. He knows this. He's not going to let it affect his game, because he is not a 12-year-old girl.

I guess my point is that if Minshew basically had the job but could lose it with one bad game, what does that say?  Are you going to change to the other guy each week the starter doesn't play well? 

Sure Foles knows he's benched if he doesn't play well, but what's the measurement period?  1 game?

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They didn’t give Foles an $88 million contract to be a backup to a rookie.  Minshew played well, and now they know what they have on the bench, but the job was Foles’ to lose.  As long as he stays healthy, Minshew won’t see the field again unless Foles starts having Nathan Peterman-like games.

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2 minutes ago, -fish- said:

They didn’t give Foles an $88 million contract to be a backup to a rookie.  Minshew played well, and now they know what they have on the bench, but the job was Foles’ to lose.  As long as he stays healthy, Minshew won’t see the field again unless Foles starts having Nathan Peterman-like games.

I agree with this. Minshew looked good until it really mattered in the sense of foles return looming. He looked terrible out there so with how much they paid foles it would make sense to put him out there once he’s healthy imo. If minshew kept his magic and didn’t have that ugly ugly ugly game then maybe but that was awful. He looked terrible. 

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1 hour ago, RushHour said:

Shame for Minshew - that London meltdown was the worst timing. I think he'll be back though - he showed more than enough to get another shot as a starter (if not with the Jags then somewhere else).

It was bad timing. If Gardner plays well and Jacksonville wins that game I think they really would have stayed with the hot hand. This makes it easy to go to Foles and they know they have a young capable backup who will hopefully continue to progress.

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2 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

I guess my point is that if Minshew basically had the job but could lose it with one bad game, what does that say?  Are you going to change to the other guy each week the starter doesn't play well? 

Sure Foles knows he's benched if he doesn't play well, but what's the measurement period?  1 game?

I think it says they paid a lot of money to a super bowl QB, who deserves to play. But if minshsw looked like the next Tom Brady, they'd be okay with foles being bledsoe.

It's Nick's job for the rest of the season at least. (Unless he completely implodes). And they have a good backup.

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2 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

I guess my point is that if Minshew basically had the job but could lose it with one bad game, what does that say?  Are you going to change to the other guy each week the starter doesn't play well? 

Sure Foles knows he's benched if he doesn't play well, but what's the measurement period?  1 game?

It was going to be Foles barring some kind of lights out performance IMO and even then who knows. Wanted to make sure Foles was healthy and really no reason to announce it sooner. Made the announcement 10 days before the next game. Not sure what else you can ask for really.

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3 hours ago, Shutout said:

It's a good problem to have, knowing they have a starter that has been a super bowl mvp and a rookie that is more comprehensive than about 10 starters in the league.  

Yes. Definitely a good problem to have.  However... 

Mahomes

Wilson

Watson

Rodgers

Jackson

Brady

Brees

Dak

Ryan

Stafford

Goff

Wentz

Rivers

We are up to 12 that are almost impossible to dispute, with Foles in the next group somewhere but debateable where. He isn't somebody who needs to be handed back the job over a very promising rookie because of his track record of success.  His track record is spotty. They paid him on recency bias.  They put him back in on recency bias. 

I just think it's bad management in terms of being proactive for what comes next. What are you going to do if Foles has a worse game than Minshew's latest game next week? I assume Maronne can't even afford for that to happen I guess.  If it does happen, what does he do that doesn't make him look like an incompetent fool who needs to be replaced?

He can't immediately switch back to Minshew or play Foles again without looking foolish. 

What happens when Foles loses a game or two and they are completely out of playoff contention. Do you go back to Minshew then? If he plays well, you look like an idiot. Also the fan base second guesses every Foles mistake in those losses. 

Too many ways to look bad as an organization.  I'll sit back and see how it plays out and I very much might be wrong.  Thanks everyone for indulging me, many great points in this thread. 

 

 

 

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