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Weekly Projections: Tremblay vs Dodds vs Bloom (1 Viewer)

timschochet

timschochet

Footballguy
I’m wondering who here you rely on most and why. I’m sure all of these guys are extremely knowledgeable and they all have their formulas, but they also reach very different conclusions on a weekly basis (particularly Bloom.) I have no idea which has the highest statistical rate of success. 

 
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It would be good if there were more posts like this and the blip/sign thread.

I tend to track Maurile.

 
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Even if you knew their past rate of success it wouldn't tell you who will be more right this week.

I go with my own calls, usually check their rankings to see if I am missing something blatant.

 
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Let me offer an example of why I brought this up this week (even though I've wondered about it for sometime.) So I need to start two wide receivers, out of these 4:

Brandin Cooks

Stefon Diggs

John Ross

Marquise Brown

Now I started Cooks and Diggs last week, both had terrible games. I picked up Ross and Brown off waivers, after a great week. I'd love to start them if they're for real. Here's the official ranking from Dodds:

Cooks 19

Diggs 30

Ross 33

Brown 44

Tremblay basically agrees:

Cooks 19

Diggs 30

Ross 33

Brown 44

So both of them say I should stick with the veterans one more week, right? But here is Bloom:

Brown 23

Ross 25

Cooks 40

Diggs 44

That's quite a difference. In fact it's almost the exact opposite! And that's why I'd like to know more about the thought process that goes into these before making a decision.

 
Bloom tends to go boom or bust IMO. Dodd’s is more conservative. A good mix of both seems to work well in most instances. I lean towards Bloom because I think he does pick up on positive point advantages/ trends that the other two miss.

See John Brown BUF last week

 
There's no world in which Brown plays a significant role and finishes as WR44.  Those guys are baking in the risk of him playing limited snaps, and I would expect that prediction to change drastically by Sunday morning.

 
sit ur studs.

No seriously, I used to have a great NYT article talking about the various fantasy personalities and how they rank their teams.

The takeaway and relevance for this: Bloom and Mike Clay are the two top performers/rankers that deviate from the norm than most of all the guys.

Bloom is good, but he's often an outlier who, as noted, loves boom/bust. Note him calling the FLEX position a "what the heck..." position, which works literarily, but also allows one a peek-a-boo into what his tone reveals about his strategy. That's the best I got for ya, tim. 

And I never, ever use rankings other than as the most basic guidepost.

AND THE POLITICAL FORUM IS IN THE DROP DOWN MENU UNDER "FORUMS!"

 
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BroncoFreak_2K3 said:
Bloom tends to go boom or bust IMO. Dodd’s is more conservative. A good mix of both seems to work well in most instances. I lean towards Bloom because I think he does pick up on positive point advantages/ trends that the other two miss.

See John Brown BUF last week
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Dodds generally conservative going off projected stats is spot on. Tremblay is out there on a limb sometimes. Bloom is who I follow the most, probably because I often Ask Bloom questions or follow it when it's soooo close. The call ultimately is on the Team Manager. Now, sometimes ya gotta get balsy too. At first I picked up Adrian Peterson and started to see two TD's / 100+ yards, then I dropped him for Rex Burkhead. My rationale is Rex has a better chance to break out and become a significant part of a league winner more then AP I believe. So does Bloom LOL. 

 
I never "relied" on the rankings but will look at them to validate my selections.  Also use them to see who may be ranked high and available in my leagues on waivers.   I notice that I am more in line with Bloom's rankings.   

 
Bloom by far for me. I like that he's not afraid to stick his neck out a bit and go against the group think in the FF community. 

You look at the "most accurate" experts at fantasy pros, and they all basically just play it safe, I feel like their rating system is catered more toward experts who go with consensus and make very few bold calls. Following their draft/lineup advice a great way to avoid finishing bottom 4 in your 12 team league, but I don't believe it's the best for actually winning leagues, especially when it comes to draft advice. 

 
You’ve also got to think of these guys working and having a career.

What happens if you put x player with y moderate to high risk and say *this is the week you start him. This just happened with Ronald Jones for instance and Hardman is another this week. Say you push that - because that’s what you’re paid for, I don’t need you to tell me to start Kamara - and then it flops. People are banging down your door, angry as hell. “You said.....”.

I do think Joe and his team use some serious statistical variance measurements. Tbqh I don’t even understand half the stuff in MyFbg’s, they really invite you to use the Data... and you might as well be handing me stock data or pork belly futures weather charts.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
You’ve also got to think of these guys working and having a career.

What happens if you put x player with y moderate to high risk and say *this is the week you start him. This just happened with Ronald Jones for instance and Hardman is another this week. Say you push that - because that’s what you’re paid for, I don’t need you to tell me to start Kamara - and then it flops. People are banging down your door, angry as hell. “You said.....”.

I do think Joe and his team use some serious statistical variance measurements. Tbqh I don’t even understand half the stuff in MyFbg’s, they really invite you to use the Data... and you might as well be handing me stock data or pork belly futures weather charts.
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Straight butter. Could not agree any more than I do with this science.

MyFBGs has some stuff that might as well be in Greek. Well, it is, sometimes. ∑, baby. 

 
I've been wondering why FBG projectors don't have their accuracy on FantasyPros anymore.

Anyways, Bloom for basically everything (esp WRs). Dodds isn't bad for RB and TE.

 
I have zero quant analysis upon which to base the following opinions, but:

Dodds seems to me the most rationale, statistically safe, and generally the most accurate (just seemed his rankings have panned out more true over time as I've followed them).

Bloom is solid at identifying sleepers and boom/bust candidates, and his rationale always seemed sound. Like others, when I have a tough decision where consensus/Dodds' rankings really don't sway me over two similarly valued players, that's where I value Bloom's wider variances.

I like Tremblay's early rankings to get a feel for WW, but these tend to be a little reactive, and overall his rankings tend to have more outliers. 

I respect all three as they are all very insightful into this sport, and take into account the entire game situation when thinking through their rankings. I don't take the average of the three, but I do weigh them all in terms of the sources on this site.

A pre-emptive thanks to all three of you for doing what you do!

 
Personally, I use Dave Richard. I like to see where he has decided NOT to cheat off of Jamey Eisenberg...and then I do the opposite of whatever Dave Richard's rankings suggest: sell, buy, start, sit, pick up, whatever.   Easy money!  Thank me later.

 
Nucker101 said:
Bloom by far for me. I like that he's not afraid to stick his neck out a bit and go against the group think in the FF community. 

You look at the "most accurate" experts at fantasy pros, and they all basically just play it safe, I feel like their rating system is catered more toward experts who go with consensus and make very few bold calls. Following their draft/lineup advice a great way to avoid finishing bottom 4 in your 12 team league, but I don't believe it's the best for actually winning leagues, especially when it comes to draft advice. 
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I too like to look at those "bold calls" and then assess somewhere and ask myself can I see this happening? Then it's the gut with match ups and who's do / who's a fade for a week or more sometimes. Likewise, sometimes I;m not feeling it for a highly rated player and go with the guy who I think will do well, like a Tyrell Williams over Mike Evans this week. Bloom allows me flexibility to make the call vs. before I would put too many chips in on a player he TARGETS yet sometimes doesn't pan out that way. Ya gotta keep working it - at least I do lol. I'd like to hit a majority of the time. 

 
What I'd really like to see is all these supposed experts or guru's on mass media put their money where their mouth is and keep track of who's the most accurate predictor? Someone to keep a file on who hits the most? It's easy to rewind a hit, whereas a miss often just fades away. I like to hear folks say that totally missed that one!

Footballguys and all the other talking heads doing their research. Who ranks the highest, the most average, the lowest.

 
Team Smokin' said:
What I'd really like to see is all these supposed experts or guru's on mass media put their money where their mouth is and keep track of who's the most accurate predictor? Someone to keep a file on who hits the most? It's easy to rewind a hit, whereas a miss often just fades away. I like to hear folks say that totally missed that one!

Footballguys and all the other talking heads doing their research. Who ranks the highest, the most average, the lowest.
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This data is out there.

 
I kind of tracked this last year by entering the optimal lineup based on all 3's projections into DFS 50/50's to see who could beat the baseline/average score at the best rate.  Here were my results:

ROI:
Dodds: 1.176
Tremblay: 0.907
Bloom: 0.752

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I kind of tracked this last year by entering the optimal lineup based on all 3's projections into DFS 50/50's to see who could beat the baseline/average score at the best rate.  Here were my results:

ROI:
Dodds: 1.176
Tremblay: 0.907
Bloom: 0.752
Click to expand...
So, use Dodds when you are favored to win, and Bloom if you are an underdog?

 
timschochet said:
Let me offer an example of why I brought this up this week (even though I've wondered about it for sometime.) So I need to start two wide receivers, out of these 4:

Brandin Cooks

Stefon Diggs

John Ross

Marquise Brown

Now I started Cooks and Diggs last week, both had terrible games. I picked up Ross and Brown off waivers, after a great week. I'd love to start them if they're for real. Here's the official ranking from Dodds:

Cooks 19

Diggs 30

Ross 33

Brown 44

Tremblay basically agrees:

Cooks 19

Diggs 30

Ross 33

Brown 44

So both of them say I should stick with the veterans one more week, right? But here is Bloom:

Brown 23

Ross 25

Cooks 40

Diggs 44

That's quite a difference. In fact it's almost the exact opposite! And that's why I'd like to know more about the thought process that goes into these before making a decision.
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It's too early, after just one game, to move Ross and Brown ahead of Cooks and Diggs. Revisit after game 2, especially Diggs performance, since the running game has been a bigger part of the Viking game plan since midway through last year. 

 
SoBeDad said:
It's too early, after just one game, to move Ross and Brown ahead of Cooks and Diggs. Revisit after game 2, especially Diggs performance, since the running game has been a bigger part of the Viking game plan since midway through last year. 
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Well I decided to split the difference: I’m going with Cooks and Ross. Now watch my team get punished for it. 

 
timschochet said:
That first game really scared me. Not the total numbers but the targets. With Cook healthy they seemed to be determined to run the ball a lot more. 
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This is totally true. I have Diggs in a league of mine and I was sort of saddened watching this development. They seem, per last year's OC change and the breakdown of run/pass attempt % after the change, very determined to run the ball.

But that's also, for this year, a small sample size and game-script dependent. That said, MN has announced, "We want to run the ball more." And then they did just that after a big coaching change last year. Sometimes coach don't lie. 

Regarding Ross: Why did Cincinnati throw fifty times last game? New coaching staff or poor Seattle secondary or game-script determined? Mixon's injury? We won't know the trends until the trends tell us so.

So, really, I'm just kidding. I wanted an excuse to use a meme, some slang, and ALL CAPS. Good luck with the FF decision. 

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
You’ve also got to think of these guys working and having a career.

What happens if you put x player with y moderate to high risk and say *this is the week you start him. This just happened with Ronald Jones for instance and Hardman is another this week. Say you push that - because that’s what you’re paid for, I don’t need you to tell me to start Kamara - and then it flops. People are banging down your door, angry as hell. “You said.....”.

I do think Joe and his team use some serious statistical variance measurements. Tbqh I don’t even understand half the stuff in MyFbg’s, they really invite you to use the Data... and you might as well be handing me stock data or pork belly futures weather charts.
Click to expand...
I'm with you on this.  good post.

 
It’s like picking individual stocks. No better than throwing darts. I appreciate reading points of view but most of the myfootballguys stuff I delete instantly especially the rushing and passing matchups. I can’t remember which one said it, but one or two of them had Winston as a start over Mahomes week one. Oh and Henry was pretty much a sit everywhere. No one can get this stuff exact,y right. It’s fun to ponder but I don’t believe for one second any professional would consistently do any better than your average informed poster on this board. I purchase the website because it’s awesome for tracking my multiple league free agents and I do like Bloom’s waiver wire report.

 
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I'm Dodds for life.   Been following him for so many years now (MrFootball yo) and he's steered me right way, way more  than he's steered me wrong.

 
it would be very beneficial to get any understanding on why the ranks are the way the are... why not tell us player x is going up against a slot corner who hasnt given up a TD in 20 games... stuff like this is really what i want to see... not just a list. one of the reasons i enjoy paul charcian's rankings is at least he gives you a reason why a player is way up or down this week

i generally dont rely on the weekly rankings, they sort of make you feel better is all

 
pbandy1 said:
I've been wondering why FBG projectors don't have their accuracy on FantasyPros anymore.

Anyways, Bloom for basically everything (esp WRs). Dodds isn't bad for RB and TE.
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Just a total guess, but the way FantasyPros does business seems really unethical to me. They take the consensus rankings from a ton of fantasy experts and then package them and sell that consensus ranking as a competing fantasy product. That seems pretty messed up to me and I could see why experts would not want to provide their data to another site who is doing that.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I kind of tracked this last year by entering the optimal lineup based on all 3's projections into DFS 50/50's to see who could beat the baseline/average score at the best rate.  Here were my results:

ROI:
Dodds: 1.176
Tremblay: 0.907
Bloom: 0.752
Click to expand...
This appears to be quite a spread. I don't think this post got enough attention.

But I wonder how much entering optimal lineups differs from using their projections to fill a more typical fantasy league lineup, where the choices go much deeper into the rankings. Any thoughts on that?

Also, could these results have been skewed at all by position (e.g., Dodds is super elite at projecting RBs, but all three were about the same at projecting other positions). Any thoughts on that?

 
I've listened to Dodds for probably the last ten years and have won many championships in that timespan so I'm pretty loyal to Dodds. I also find myself agreeing with him the most and Bloom the least FWIW.

Which is why the whole pizza gate thing was frustrating to see in the FFA.
 
Team Smokin' said:
What I'd really like to see is all these supposed experts or guru's on mass media put their money where their mouth is and keep track of who's the most accurate predictor? Someone to keep a file on who hits the most? It's easy to rewind a hit, whereas a miss often just fades away. I like to hear folks say that totally missed that one!

Footballguys and all the other talking heads doing their research. Who ranks the highest, the most average, the lowest.
Click to expand...
Yeah I'm pretty sure there's a site that does this already and has for awhile. I believe like 4 years ago Dodds was the most accurate predictor on the internet (which, not coincidentally, was the same year I won like 4 of my 7 leagues). 

 
As I am posting this, Dodds/Nortons projections were updated Sun Sep 15 11:33 AM.

Trembley's were last updated Fri Sep 13 5:01 PM.

And Blooms apparently have not been updated.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I kind of tracked this last year by entering the optimal lineup based on all 3's projections into DFS 50/50's to see who could beat the baseline/average score at the best rate.  Here were my results:

ROI:
Dodds: 1.176
Tremblay: 0.907
Bloom: 0.752
Click to expand...
This is really interesting. I was going to post that it really depended on what type of league you were playing in. For instance I'd lean more heavily on Dodds in 50/50 situations and Bloom more heavily if I were trying to win a contest or a winner-take-all type league. Dodds is Tony Gwynn, Bloom is Harmon Killebrew. Neither is bad, they are just different. 

Unlike others here I actually like Tremblay as the happy medium between the two. I agree with what some have said that he may have more outliers from popular opinion... but that's not a bad thing imo and actually gives me more to think about. 

 
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