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Just Released: Interactive Target Visualizer (1 Viewer)

ebzded

ebzded

Footballguy
As I shared in this thread, this season I'm using my skills as a data professional to build some apps in my free time.

I think this one is the most fantasy-relevant:  The Target Analyzer

(***EDIT: and now also The Target Sorter which is actually proving more popular).

EX:  If you click on the bars for Brees vs. Bridgewater, you'll see that Michael Thomas' target share spiked significantly with Bridgewater (yay), but his depth of target plummeted (boo) and his catch % fell significantly (also boo).

Try it out - it's got most of the targeted players in it for '19 (I'm debugging the missing ones now), and will soon have '18 historical data as well.  Filter to individual games, down and distance situations, go nuts.

MODS:  as I said in the other thread, this is a side project/hobby, and I never intend to charge for it.  It's (hopefully) good advertising for my company's business data consulting services, but there's no intention to make money off the football crowd.  I'm a longtime subscriber (rcollie, look me up) and in all seriousness owe my career in data to Joe Bryant's VBD article many years ago. Much love.

 
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When a buddy of mine was helping design the UX for Sunday Ticket this is exactly the kind of thing she would love to have slid into it. 

 
Henry Ford said:
When a buddy of mine was helping design the UX for Sunday Ticket this is exactly the kind of thing she would love to have slid into it. 
Click to expand...
I appreciate that. Here's something I've learned in my career as a "data guy" though: 

  1. You either have the Data Gene, or you don't.
  2. The ratio of Data Gene "carriers" to non-carriers is 1:15 at best.
  3. If you lack the Data Gene, no amount of obviously-demonstrated value or coolness will win you over.
  4. If you possess the Data Gene, it is virtually impossible to understand or predict #3.
So in short, people like us who dig this stuff...  are the minority.  And we repeatedly overestimate how broad the appeal is.

That said...  there ARE enough of us to make it interesting.  Just not mainstream.

 
rockaction said:
Wow. This is. Vegas prop bet stuff. Kudos for this.

We barely knew ye. 
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I've lurked on these boards for maybe as long as 15 years but never felt like I could contribute enough value to make it worth signing in.  You could say I've picked my spot very patiently.

Getting such kind words from people I've followed for so long - it's very gratifying.

 
ebzded said:
I appreciate that. Here's something I've learned in my career as a "data guy" though: 

  1. You either have the Data Gene, or you don't.
  2. The ratio of Data Gene "carriers" to non-carriers is 1:15 at best.
  3. If you lack the Data Gene, no amount of obviously-demonstrated value or coolness will win you over.
  4. If you possess the Data Gene, it is virtually impossible to understand or predict #3.
So in short, people like us who dig this stuff...  are the minority.  And we repeatedly overestimate how broad the appeal is.

That said...  there ARE enough of us to make it interesting.  Just not mainstream.
Click to expand...
ESPN or NFL.com should jump at something like this for their fantasy players. If not, Fleaflicker should. 

 
ebzded said:
Getting love from MoP??  I got all kinds of warm fuzzies now.  Been reading your posts since my first marriage - and like, when it was still HAPPY.

In other words?  For a long freaking time.

This sort of thing makes all the work feel super worthwhile.
Click to expand...
I don't know what to say other than thank you   :wub:

 
NYRAGE said:
Looks good.

Maybe they can hire you to fix MyFBG on this site.
Click to expand...
After years in the software trenches I can tell you that MyFBG is pretty damn solid.  The sheer amount of noise they have to deal with across all those sites - sites powered by non-cooperative development teams with their own quirks, random agendas...  ya MyFBG is pretty much a triumph despite the hiccups.

 
ebzded said:
After years in the software trenches I can tell you that MyFBG is pretty damn solid.  The sheer amount of noise they have to deal with across all those sites - sites powered by non-cooperative development teams with their own quirks, random agendas...  ya MyFBG is pretty much a triumph despite the hiccups.
Click to expand...
At times yes. Other times, it can be a mess. Some teams don't load. Failed synchs. Sometimes all the players appear as free agents. The trade algorithm is a wreck. I keep getting suggested trades like Mahomes and Davante Adams for Delanie Walker.  

Anyway, not to take away from your work. Your site looks really promising.

 
Henry Ford said:
ESPN or NFL.com should jump at something like this for their fantasy players. If not, Fleaflicker should. 
Click to expand...
True story:  In 2006 I left the Excel team at Microsoft to join MSN Fantasy Sports.  We were gonna launch our own Fantasy football site to compete with ESPN, Yahoo, Fox, etc.

And one of the differentiating features we had planned was a very early version of what I've pulled together here 13 years later.  But even with the huge budget (by comparison) and a whole team supporting me... the thing we were working on in 2006 would have SUCKED compared to what I can do with today's tools and a small amount of support.

Then the entire project got canceled - the entire fantasy sports thing, not just this stats part.  I got folded into working on Bing and at that point wished I'd stayed on Excel.

 
Cooper Kupp is fun to look at...something like 18 targets from close range producing 16 receptions if my eyes are still good which they're not. 

2nd pass it's more like 21 targets 18 receptions, what's neat is how the YAC are on display if you click over the green target/reception. 

-One of the many good things with this tool will be the off season and how a player's role might change with a new OC or HC. You can't assume they will be used the same way. 

Kupp has not missed on any targets to Goff's left side and has missed on 4-5 targets on the right side. Perfect down the middle and also to the left between the hash and the numbers, even outside the numbers Kupp is pretty darn good. 

 
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Just finishing up the Rams...

Robert Woods...0 for 4 on targets of about 20 yds and over, and you can take that to 13 yds and beyond, Woods is 2 for 8. Most of his receptions are of the shorter variety. 

Brandin Cooks did most of his damage outside the numbers vs Cleveland. Otherwise he has been very quiet so far. Rams have not exploded or blown out their opponents yet and we have not see a lot of big plays from Gurley like we are accustomed to or Cooks for that matter. 

Fascinating to see how all these Receivers are used. There is lots of info to give complete perspective on what was happening at the time, this isn't just a graph or chart, you supply a lot of info in the pop up box as you hover over the targets, down/distance, 1stQ/2ndQ etc, depth, YAC, all that helps land the plane when we are discussing players all year. 

Thanks for sharing this with everyone, pretty sure it's gonna be popular and also settle endless debates. 

 
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@Ministry of Pain - really happy to see you digging in. 

In all seriousness, I expect this citizens of this board to do better things with these tools than I can (I can build race cars but that doesn't make me the best driver). I'm eager to see the sorts of analyses and discussion that comes out of it.

Make sure to check out all of the apps - some more useful than others - on the homepage NoCheckdowns.com

Also I'm all ears to requested changes/improvements.  Can't guarantee that everything is doable, but there's quite a bit of flexibility in the system.

How do I effectively follow such efforts?  EX: If you tag me in other threads, do I get notified?

 
Thank you for posting this, really cool stuff. Just scratching the surface of this.

On the sorter, Los Angeles includes both LA team stats. It would be nice to split the two teams if possible, LA Rams and LA Chargers, or Los Angeles and Carson since they Chargers are in LA like Angels are in LA. (I guess this goes over your head if you don't know LA geography.)

How are you differentiating targets vs. quality targets? That qualifier alone makes this tool a mega tool, but curious what the differentiating factor is behind the scenes.

Gonna say thanks again for posting this, the UI aspect of this is amazing.

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
On the sorter, Los Angeles includes both LA team stats.
Click to expand...
Fixing now, changing to mascot instead of location. Was trying to cut corners there and got burned :)

Pigskin Fanatic said:
or Los Angeles and Carson since they Chargers are in LA like Angels are in LA. (I guess this goes over your head if you don't know LA geography.)
Click to expand...
I don't know the geography, but I laughed anyway.

Pigskin Fanatic said:
How are you differentiating targets vs. quality targets? That qualifier alone makes this tool a mega tool, but curious what the differentiating factor is behind the scenes.
Click to expand...
It's based on film review by a longtime football analyst.  We're paying him to review every pass play for accuracy and provide us the data.

Yes, my biz partners green lit the spending on this because 1 - they know that when I get on an obsessive tear about these sorts of things, good things happen for our biz  and 2 - they're just amazing biz partners.

There's a lot of parallel between "dumb football stats" and "dumb business stats."  Using completion percentage to judge accuracy is dumb because it rewards conservatism (hence the title No Checkdowns).  Using raw revenue/sales numbers to judge biz health is just as dumb, because for example if your sales reps are offering ever-more-aggressive discounts, your profitability is falling even as your sales go up. We've made people millions by helping them tell the difference.

But yeah, football is more fun :)

 
ebzded said:
As I shared in this thread, this season I'm using my skills as a data professional to build some apps in my free time.

I think this one is the most fantasy-relevant:  The Target Analyzer

EX:  If you click on the bars for Brees vs. Bridgewater, you'll see that Michael Thomas' target share spiked significantly with Bridgewater (yay), but his depth of target plummeted (boo) and his catch % fell significantly (also boo).

Try it out - it's got most of the targeted players in it for '19 (I'm debugging the missing ones now), and will soon have '18 historical data as well.  Filter to individual games, down and distance situations, go nuts.

MODS:  as I said in the other thread, this is a side project/hobby, and I never intend to charge for it.  It's (hopefully) good advertising for my company's business data consulting services, but there's no intention to make money off the football crowd.  I'm a longtime subscriber (rcollie, look me up) and in all seriousness owe my career in data to Joe Bryant's VBD article many years ago. Much love.
Click to expand...
amazing work....fyi, Phillip Dorsett appears twice ("Philip" and "Phillip")  one has weeks one and two and the other has week 3

 
chad in Indy said:
amazing work....fyi, Phillip Dorsett appears twice ("Philip" and "Phillip")  one has weeks one and two and the other has week 3
Click to expand...
Thanks for pointing that out.  We're likely to have a bunch of these spelling mistakes actually so keep them coming. 

When that happens, the stats get split across the two names too which makes him look less productive than he actually is.

Fixing now.

 
ebzded said:
It's based on film review by a longtime football analyst.  We're paying him to review every pass play for accuracy and provide us the data.

Yes, my biz partners green lit the spending on this because 1 - they know that when I get on an obsessive tear about these sorts of things, good things happen for our biz  and 2 - they're just amazing biz partners.

There's a lot of parallel between "dumb football stats" and "dumb business stats."  Using completion percentage to judge accuracy is dumb because it rewards conservatism (hence the title No Checkdowns).  Using raw revenue/sales numbers to judge biz health is just as dumb, because for example if your sales reps are offering ever-more-aggressive discounts, your profitability is falling even as your sales go up. We've made people millions by helping them tell the difference.
Click to expand...
un f'n believable. :tebow:

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Cooper Kupp is fun to look at...something like 18 targets from close range producing 16 receptions if my eyes are still good which they're not. 

2nd pass it's more like 21 targets 18 receptions, what's neat is how the YAC are on display if you click over the green target/reception. 

-One of the many good things with this tool will be the off season and how a player's role might change with a new OC or HC. You can't assume they will be used the same way. 

Kupp has not missed on any targets to Goff's left side and has missed on 4-5 targets on the right side. Perfect down the middle and also to the left between the hash and the numbers, even outside the numbers Kupp is pretty darn good. 
Click to expand...
Since you were reviewing Kupp I thought you'd like to know that in follow-on film review today, we subtracted a Kupp week 3 drop and put it on Goff as inaccurate:

https://twitter.com/NoCheckdowns/status/1176933701541924871

 
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