Time to sell Rams, has McVay been figured out? (1 Viewer)

Ghost Rider said:

Not sure we can put all of the blame on him, but Goff has noticeably dropped off, just not in the numbers; using the eye test, he hasn't looked like the same QB he did for the first 2/3 of the season last year. 

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voiceofunreason said:

I think he’s the biggest problem. He lost Kupp and I think he lost his confidence more than anything. And it’s really hard to forget that he couldn’t hardly get a first down in the super bowl. I was worried in the offseason that he’d recover from that kind of an embarrassment. That’s a big blow to anyone’s confidence. He as really exposed.

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FreeBaGeL said:

Lost in all of the discussion about Todd Gurley and whatnot is that the Rams offense has been pretty pedestrian for quite some time now, and a lot of people don't seem to have adjusted to that new reality when ranking Rams' fantasy players.

The Rams' offense the first 11 games of last year and the 10 games since (counting playoffs) almost could not be more different.  Some have noticed but assumed it was Cooper Kupp's absence causing problems (with is an issue of its own, if one of these WRs getting hurt can tank an entire offense), but things don't appear to be much better so far this year.  You have to wonder if the NFL hasn't figured out Sean McVay to some extent.  This has not been an elite offense in a while now but people are still treating it as an elite unit that can support 3 strong fantasy WRs and multiple fantasy RBs.

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tjnc09 said:

lol I like how you made the cut right after they scored 54 against KC.

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Ghost Rider said:

Not sure we can put all of the blame on him, but Goff has noticeably dropped off, just not in the numbers; using the eye test, he hasn't looked like the same QB he did for the first 2/3 of the season last year. 

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According to Fox Sports, Ryan Flaherty, a strength and speed coach, studied Jared Goff’s blood work and discovered that Goff “has an enzyme deficiency that didn’t allow him to break down proteins.” 

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FreeBaGeL said:

Pass TDs in order

2
1
3
5
1
0
2
3
3
2
4
1
0
0
1
4
0
1
0
1
1

Again, it's not just a game here or there.

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Slider said:

He's 2-0 and has scored 30 and 27 points against quality teams.

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SaintsInDome2006 said:

Fwiw teh Saints game was a pretty tight defensive battle for a while, even after Brees went out. Eventually the Saints D got exhausted and stuck in lousy field position. Bit of a null result IMO.

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Biabreakable said:

Its an interesting observation.

Does the drop off coincide with Gurleys injury?

I do not find the ypa or TD splits to be very convincing. Those seem like a normally random distribution.

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FreeBaGeL said:

9 of 11 multiple TD games in one set and 1 of 10 in the other is normally random distribution?

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9.3ypa in one set and 6.5ypa in the other is normally random distribution?

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0 of 11 games under 7ypa in one set and 6 of 10 games under 7 ypa is normally random distribution?

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I would disagree on that.  And if we were to stretch random distribution that far we could equally say that Gurley's huge dropoff in TDs, yards, carries, ypc, etc is all just normally random distribution and the knee is not actually a problem and he is still the fantasy #1 RB.  But we know that not to be true.

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dkp993 said:

I’ll just put this here.  Nobody succeeds under these circumstances.  

PFF rankings through last week....

LT Andrew Whitworth 32nd/75 OTs

LG Jamil Demby 76th/77 OGs

C Brian Allen 31st/33 Cs

RG Austin Blythe 72nd/77 OGs

RT Rob Havenstein 74th/75 OTs

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dkp993 said:

I’ll just put this here.  Nobody succeeds under these circumstances.  

PFF rankings through last week....

LT Andrew Whitworth 32nd/75 OTs

LG Jamil Demby 76th/77 OGs

C Brian Allen 31st/33 Cs

RG Austin Blythe 72nd/77 OGs

RT Rob Havenstein 74th/75 OTs

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What's wrong with Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams' offense?

That's the million-dollar question floating around league circles, with the defending NFC champions now sitting at 5-4 following another dismal offensive performance in last Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Rams' play this season has observers scratching their heads when watching an offense that looks nothing like the unit that dominated opponents during McVay's first two years at the helm. After averaging 32.9 points and 421.1 total yards per game in 2018, those Rams figures have plummeted to 25.1 points and 375.8 yards in 2019. That's a significant decline in production for an offense that appeared unstoppable during the early part of the McVay era.

What happened? Did the NFL finally catch up to the creative schemes dreamed up by the ballyhooed young coach?

"McVay's gotten too cute," a former NFL defensive coordinator told me. "He's gotten too far away from the 'bread and butter' schemes that made the offense pop. They're not using Todd Gurley as the focal point of the offense. The fly-sweep motion and runs to various perimeter players have diminished. And the passing game has become more dropback than play-action-based. ... Plus, the offensive line isn't nearly as good as it once was.

"They're a completely different offense than the one that took the league by storm."

Rams fans might not want to hear that kind of cold, hard truth, but the veteran defensive coach is simply pointing out the flaws that stand out on tape. McVay's offense looks nothing like the version that pummeled opponents during his first two years on the job. Just over halfway through the 2019 season, the Rams already have more games with fewer than 30 points (6), fewer than 400 total yards (6) and fewer than 100 rush yards (6) than they had during the entire 2018 campaign. They're just not nearly as explosive, dynamic or consistent on offense this season -- and their decline has been utterly apparent to anyone who has studied the film.

Reviewing the All-22 Coaches Film, the first thing that stands out is the lack of punch in the running game, and McVay's waning commitment to Gurley. I've heard all the theories on Gurley and his arthritic knee. Obviously, I don't have all of the medical information that Gurley and the Rams have at their disposal. But at times this season, the 25-year-old back has run quite effectively. He just hasn't received anywhere near the workload he used to get. I don't know if this is some kind of "load management" plan or just a change in strategy. Bottom line: Gurley's no longer the center of gravity in this offense. From 2015 through '18, Gurley averaged 21.2 touches and 110.9 scrimmage yards per game, tallying 56 total touchdown in the process. He's not even close to sniffing those bell-cow figures this season, averaging 14.9 touches and 63.6 scrimmage yards per game, with seven scores through eight outings. (Gurley missed L.A.'s Week 6 loss to San Francisco with a quad injury.) After opening the season with 14 rushes for 97 yards against the Panthers, Gurley has averaged just 12.9 carries and 47.3 rushing yards per game since. His percentage of the team's scrimmage yards is the lowest of his career (27.2, 27th overall) after ranking third (44.3) and sixth (38.1) in this category during each of McVay's first two seasons. 

With Gurley not as involved in the offensive game plan, the Rams have suffered the second-largest decrease in rushing yards from 2018 to '19, posting 43.2 fewer ground yards per game this season. This has dropped Los Angeles' run game from third in 2018 to 20th this year. And this significantly impacts the entire offense. Although the Rams appeared to be a high-flying attack fueled on big plays in the passing game over the past couple seasons, the ground game was actually the foundation of the offense, with Gurley creasing defenses on an assortment of outside-zone runs with wide receivers racing across the formation on fly-sweep action prior to the snap. But Gurley's usage -- and Los Angeles' implementation of the fly sweep -- have decreased drastically.

"The fly sweep was a big part of their offense in McVay's early years," said the former NFL defensive coordinator. "McVay would give the ball to any of their receivers (Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods), so you had to stay home on the edges, which created lanes for Gurley. Without the persistent threat of the sweep, defenders can lock in on No. 30 and keep him under control in the box."

The fly sweep not only helped Gurley enjoy success, but it was a big driver in Jared Goff's ascension as a quarterback. The Rams featured a play-action passing game during those early years with the young quarterback thriving from the pocket, thanks to defenders being left dazed and confused by the misdirection action the backfield. Defensive hesitation created huge voids at intermediate range, which led to easy completions from the pocket for No. 16.

Without the threat of the running game creating easy throws for Goff, though, the former No. 1 overall pick hasn't been nearly as effective as a passer. He is one of only six quarterbacks with at least three more giveaways than passing touchdowns (14 giveaways, 11 touchdowns). In fact, Goff has seen his numbers decline in every major statistical category, including completion percentage (-4.6), yards per attempt (-1.0) and passer rating (-18.4). With an 82.7 passer rating, Goff has the lowest mark of the 11 active quarterbacks who started a playoff game in 2018. Yes, even lower than much-maligned BearsQB Mitchell Trubisky (85.2).

Considering Goff's disappointing performance, you wonder why the Rams have attempted to put so much on his shoulders when he is also playing behind a porous offensive line. Goff has been pressured on 30.5 percent of his dropbacks, which is the highest rate that he's faced since his rookie season under Jeff Fisher. With the 25-year-old QB also suddenly struggling against the blitz (53.4 percent completion rate, 7.0 yards per attempt, 2:2 TD-to-INT ratio and a 74.4 passer rating, per Next Gen Stats) -- after torching blitz pressure in 2017 and '18 (58.3 percent completion rate, 8.9 yards per attempt, 19:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 103.4 passer rating) -- questions should persist over the Rams' offense approach.

"We have to get back to the basics," a Rams official told me. "It's not too late, but we have to play the right way to turn things around."

If playing the right way means leaning on the running game, the Rams will need to get a better performance from the front five. L.A.'s offensive line has struggled following the losses of Rodger Saffold (free-agent departure) and John Sullivan (contract option declined). Without as much deception and misdirection in the offense, the Rams have been unable to block defenders at the point of attack and the resulting traffic jam at the line of scrimmage has left the offense stuck in neutral. Not to mention, the New England Patriots' Super Bowl-winning blueprint -- which featured a variety of exotic stunts, line games and fronts -- has been copied by defensive coordinators, and the Ramshaven't come up with solid counters.

If the Rams are going to re-emerge as contenders in a loaded NFC field, McVay will need to come up with answers to the league's copycat tactics while returning the offense to the "bread and butter" approach that used deception, misdirection and a strong, Gurley-led ground attack. Let's see if the offensive wizard can rediscover his magical powers and fix the league's most disappointing attack.

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