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9.27.19 - Poll - % Chance You Think Trump Will Be Removed From Office Over Ukraine Issue (1 Viewer)

What Percent Chance Do You Say Trump Is Removed From Office Over The Ukraine Issue?

  • 100% he's removed over this issue

    Votes: 4 1.8%

  • 90%

    Votes: 4 1.8%

  • 80%

    Votes: 6 2.7%

  • 70%

    Votes: 9 4.0%

  • 60%

    Votes: 7 3.1%

  • 50%

    Votes: 13 5.8%

  • 40%

    Votes: 17 7.5%

  • 30%

    Votes: 21 9.3%

  • 20%

    Votes: 27 11.9%

  • 10%

    Votes: 43 19.0%

  • 0%

    Votes: 75 33.2%
  • Total voters
    226
Joe Bryant

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
Trying to get a sense for what people are thinking here. 

I know the opinions range from widely. 

What's your answer to this question:

What Percent Chance Do You Say Trump Is Removed From Office Over The Ukraine Issue?

"Removed From Office" meaning removed by Impeachment or resigning due to the issue. Not that he loses the reelection because the issue was damaging or something like that. 

Also feel free to share your vote and why you think it.

Also to add - for sure this is asking your prediction on what you think think WILL happen. Not what you think SHOULD happen. 

 
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The Commish said:
0%...just like with Russia

ETA:  And not because I don't think he should be.  The GOP has shown zero desire to do the right thing and their constituents certainly aren't going to push them to do the right thing.
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Good point. I edited the original post:

Also to add - for sure this is asking your prediction on what you think think WILL happen. Not what you think SHOULD happen. 
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Joe Bryant said:
What Percent Chance Do You Say Trump Is Removed From Office Over The Ukraine Issue?
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Lol. Joe I'd like to use one of those fancy variance tools that you have on MyFBGs on this. I need a ceiling, a floor, and some formula inputting past performance and variables like Trump flipping his wig on live audio at any given moment.

 
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30%. Depends on public opinion. If the House can prove that the whistleblower’s report of a cover up is true, he’s done. 

But even if he is not removed, I firmly believe Trump will emerge from this so weakened that he has very little chance of re-election. And this will severely weaken the Republicans who defend him as well. 

 
I went with 40%.  

I'm pretty confident that a large majority of senate Republicans loathe Trump and would love to see the guy gone.  If a few come out as "guilty" votes, it's extremely easy to imagine a stampede forming.  It's still unlikely, but more likely than some are thinking IMO.

 
This is really a poll on what McConnell thinks is best for him politically (and if he can save Pence).  I went high since he doesn’t want to be beholden to Trump.  

 
toshiba said:
10%, I don't have much faith that the Senate Republicans would ever move on Trump no matter what he did.
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Those rats have not gotten this far via loyalty. They're happy to ride his corrupt coattails as long as they can, but if they smell blood, trump is gone. That said, trump has survived some reprehensible stuff unscathed, so I still don't feel great about them turning.

ETA: I voted 40% with the information available now. Things could change quickly with more information, though.

 
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I don't even put much thought into it anymore.  I've given up thinking anything will be done.  He only has one year left so I figure we'll just ride it out and hopefully someone beats him in the next election.  I'm tired of all this.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I don't even put much thought into it anymore.  I've given up thinking anything will be done.  He only has one year left so I figure we'll just ride it out and hopefully someone beats him in the next election.  I'm tired of all this.
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It's exhausting. You quote Donald saying something typically stupid and his supporters rush out of the woodwork to deny that he said it. We end up battling for reality.

I only hope that the country can muster one last burst of energy next November to get to the polls and remove this guy.

 
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I hate to split hairs, but the qualification "Over Ukraine Issue" is somewhat problematic.  If republicans cross over on impeachment, its going to be for a cumulation of reasons, and I would say the Ukraine stuff is probably not at the top of the list.  Its not even a little bit surprising he has absolutely no reservations to use his office for personal gain. 

 
Went with 70%.  You are already starting to see some cracks in the GOP.. when public pressure comes out and when the facts start to come out with the investigations.. Not sure he can recover.  

 
The GOP does not care and GOP voters do not care. There is nothing Trump could do (outside of being less racist) that would lose him voters. The GOP is more of a personality cult than political party at this point. I don't think live boy/dead girl situations really apply anymore, it will always be party over country for 35% of the US population and 95% of elected GOP officials. 

 
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60% he's impeached.

50% chance Mitch McConnell allows a trial.

0.0% chance he's removed from office.

And that applies to all current, former, and future crimes committed by Trump.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I went with 40%.  

I'm pretty confident that a large majority of senate Republicans loathe Trump and would love to see the guy gone.  If a few come out as "guilty" votes, it's extremely easy to imagine a stampede forming.  It's still unlikely, but more likely than some are thinking IMO.
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I went with 40 also but I should have gone much lower. I went that high only considering he may resign under pressure but I think I’m wrong there as well; I can’t see him resigning, it’s not in his DNA to admit guilt.

I wish I shared your ability to “imagine a stampede” but I think they are at the “go down with the ship fighting” stage. It’s just too easy currently to influence thinking and this current period of time has been a right wing wet dream.

Reconsidering, I should have gone 0 or 10%

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I went with 40%.  

I'm pretty confident that a large majority of senate Republicans loathe Trump and would love to see the guy gone.  If a few come out as "guilty" votes, it's extremely easy to imagine a stampede forming.  It's still unlikely, but more likely than some are thinking IMO.
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I think you underestimate the number of Senate Republicans who loathe Trump but like being employed.

 
Voted 10%. I don't think its likely he would be removed but i don't think its a non zero chance.

I think if more piles up he would resign before being removed by the Senate.

 
Answered 10%.  I think it far more likely it’s 0 but left some wiggle room in case some extremely damning testimony comes out from the people the Whistleblower references.  

 
tonydead said:
All my Trump serves a full term bets were a lock from Day 1.
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I don't want to derail the thread with a separate topic, but I think the precise wording of a bet like that matters quite a bit.

If Trump loses in November 2020, which seems to be at least around 50% likely, I think there's a good chance that he'll resign before January 20, 2021. If he resigns on January 18 so that Mike Pence can pardon him, would that count as serving a full term? Because I think that scenario has way more than a 0% chance of occurring.

 
Also, I don't think Tony is accounting for the KFC factor here. There's a greater than 0% chance that Trump's veins won't make it to 2021.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
I don't want to derail the thread with a separate topic, but I think the precise wording of a bet like that matters quite a bit.

If Trump loses in November 2020, which seems to be at least around 50% likely, I think there's a good chance that he'll resign before January 20, 2021. If he resigns on January 18 so that Mike Pence can pardon him, would that count as serving a full term? Because I think that scenario has way more than a 0% chance of occurring.
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I would not count that as a full term, but, I see that happening at about as much as I see the OP happening.

Joe Summer said:
Also, I don't think Tony is accounting for the KFC factor here. There's a greater than 0% chance that Trump's veins won't make it to 2021.
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I almost added a disclaimer to my comment about that.  Much higher chance of that happening than any of the other hope fors in here.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I'm pretty confident that a large majority of senate Republicans loathe Trump and would love to see the guy gone. 
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Taking out right and wrong and just looking at it from a pure "game strategy" / "What's good for us" angle, do you really think a large majority of Senate Republicans would prefer he be removed by impeachment? 

 
Anyone voting over 10% is WAY more optimistic than I am.  I voted 0%.  If the GOP pisses off Trump's base, 2020 will be a bloodbath.  Way way worse than 2008.  They are not going to come out to vote for down-ballot Republicans if those people just ousted Trump.

2020 is a redistricting year and the Supreme Court just said partisan gerrymandering is OK.  Democrats will lock down the House for the next 10 years and will do the same with lots of state legislatures.  They would also retake the Senate and White House convincingly.  Dems will make D.C. and Puerto Rico states, which will further solidify their grip on power.  They'll restore voting rights to felons and create a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants, the majority of whom are likely to vote Democratic.  It would bring in a long period of Democratic dominance. 

No way that 20 Republican Senators vote to destroy their party.  I predict a maximum of three Republican Senators would vote for removal.  That's probably over optimistic.

 
timschochet said:
What do you think, Joe? 
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I'll be honest in I truly don't know enough of the facts to feel like I have much of an opinion.

That's sincerely why I asked here. I see folks talking nothing burger but also see folks talking about how somber FOX news as they know Trump is done. When I see lots of variety like that, I'll often ask like this to ask folks to pin it down. I do think it's kind of interesting as "putting a number on it" is kind of how I live my FBG life in the fall where we don't say "Rodgers will have a great game", but we have to project exactly how many yards he'll throw for. That's sort of this in the prediction area.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
No way that 20 Republican Senators vote to destroy their party.  I predict a maximum of three Republican Senators would vote for removal.  That's probably over optimistic.
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Thanks. That's sort of what I meant questioning @IvanKaramazov when he said the majority would love to see him gone. (and I know voting for removal vs wanting it are different).

Dumb question I'm too lazy to look up, how many Republican Senators would it likely take to vote for his removal to make it happen? 20?

 
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Joe Bryant said:
Thanks. That's sort of what I meant questioning @IvanKaramazov when he said the majority would love to see him gone. (and I know voting for removal vs wanting it are different).

Dumb question I'm too lazy to look up, how many Republican Senators would it likely take to vote for his removal to make it happen?
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20. 

53 Republican Senators, 47 Democrat and independent. 67 needed so 20. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
I'll be honest in I truly don't know enough of the facts to feel like I have much of an opinion.

That's sincerely why I asked here. I see folks talking nothing burger but also see folks talking about how somber FOX news as they know Trump is done. When I see lots of variety like that, I'll often ask like this to ask folks to pin it down. I do think it's kind of interesting as "putting a number on it" is kind of how I live my FBG life in the fall where we don't say "Rodgers will have a great game", but we have to project exactly how many yards he'll throw for. That's sort of this in the prediction area.
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I voted 50%. Although I believe we have enough information, the Dems want to stick to a narrow scope. Which I don't agree with. I think the McGahn testimony shows a pattern of behavior that adds to the Ukraine incident. I also think there is a chance that more is found the more they dig. I also believe finding Trump guilty of these offenses and removing him from office are two different things that have two different factors to determine the outcomes. 

I also think that, if Trump makes it through this impeachment process, and if Trump is reelected, he could be the only President in history to have two impeachment processes brought against him. 

 
But- I can almost guarantee with 99.999% certainty that there will NEVER be an actual vote to convict the President. 

Just as in 1974, if enough Republicans indicate their willingness to convict him, they will do so first in private to McConnell and he will then go to the White House and demand that Trump resign. Unless exoneration is a sure thing there will never be an actual vote. 

 
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