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9.27.19 - Poll - % Chance You Think Trump Will Be Removed From Office Over Ukraine Issue (1 Viewer)

What Percent Chance Do You Say Trump Is Removed From Office Over The Ukraine Issue?

  • 100% he's removed over this issue

    Votes: 4 1.8%

  • 90%

    Votes: 4 1.8%

  • 80%

    Votes: 6 2.7%

  • 70%

    Votes: 9 4.0%

  • 60%

    Votes: 7 3.1%

  • 50%

    Votes: 13 5.8%

  • 40%

    Votes: 17 7.5%

  • 30%

    Votes: 21 9.3%

  • 20%

    Votes: 27 11.9%

  • 10%

    Votes: 43 19.0%

  • 0%

    Votes: 75 33.2%
  • Total voters
    226
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
Anyone voting over 10% is WAY more optimistic than I am.  I voted 0%.  If the GOP pisses off Trump's base, 2020 will be a bloodbath.  Way way worse than 2008.  They are not going to come out to vote for down-ballot Republicans if those people just ousted Trump.

2020 is a redistricting year and the Supreme Court just said partisan gerrymandering is OK.  Democrats will lock down the House for the next 10 years and will do the same with lots of state legislatures.  They would also retake the Senate and White House convincingly.  Dems will make D.C. and Puerto Rico states, which will further solidify their grip on power.  They'll restore voting rights to felons and create a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants, the majority of whom are likely to vote Democratic.  It would bring in a long period of Democratic dominance. 

No way that 20 Republican Senators vote to destroy their party.  I predict a maximum of three Republican Senators would vote for removal.  That's probably over optimistic.
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Thanks. Another dumb question as I know you follow this and I don't really that much.

That's a pretty devastating picture for Republicans you paint. But I can see it. 

How likely a scenario would you think the above would be if the GOP angers Trump's base of supporters?

I guess I mean, assuming the GOP did this to Trump supporters, do you feel like you're going on on a limb on how things would fall after? Or do you feel pretty confident that would play out that way? What percentage of politically savvy people do you think would agree with you?

 
KCitons said:
I also think that, if Trump makes it through this impeachment process, and if Trump is reelected, he could be the only President in history to have two impeachment processes brought against him. 
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It would have to be a brand new crime, carried out after the election, in that event. And it would have to be extremely blatant. 

 
timschochet said:
But- I can almost guarantee with 99.999% certainty that there will NEVER be an actual vote to convict the President. 

Just as in 1974, if enough Republicans indicate their willingness to convict him, they will do so first in private to McConnell and he will then go to the White House and demand that Trump resign. Unless exoneration is a sure thing there will never be an actual vote. 
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Meaning so the Republican Senators aren't on record with their vote? Was this why they did it with Nixon? 

 
timschochet said:
But- I can almost guarantee with 99.999% certainty that there will NEVER be an actual vote to convict the President. 

Just as in 1974, if enough Republicans indicate their willingness to convict him, they will do so first in private to McConnell and he will then go to the White House and demand that Trump resign. Unless exoneration is a sure thing there will never be an actual vote. 
Click to expand...
This assumes that Trump has a similar mentality as Nixon. That is a very wrong assumption, IMO.

If McConnell dared to go to the White House and "demand" that Trump resign, then Trump would immediately go nuclear on McConnell and anyone else voting against him, instructing his loyal supporters to vote against these Senators.

The problem with your theory is that Nixon cared about keeping the Republican party afloat. Trump does not. He ONLY ONLY ONLY cares about himself, and he will do WHATEVER it takes to maintain his position. If that means that he destroys the Republican party, so be it.

 
timschochet said:
But- I can almost guarantee with 99.999% certainty that there will NEVER be an actual vote to convict the President. 

Just as in 1974, if enough Republicans indicate their willingness to convict him, they will do so first in private to McConnell and he will then go to the White House and demand that Trump resign. Unless exoneration is a sure thing there will never be an actual vote. 
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Big if. Because that won't happen. Not even close

 
I am greater than 90% confident that if McConnell went to Trump and asked for his resignation after explaining everything to him that Trump would laugh at him and tell him to pound sand.  Trump only cares about Trump.  This should be clear by now.

 
[scooter] said:
This assumes that Trump has a similar mentality as Nixon. That is a very wrong assumption, IMO.

If McConnell dared to go to the White House and "demand" that Trump resign, then Trump would immediately go nuclear on McConnell and anyone else voting against him, instructing his loyal supporters to vote against these Senators.

The problem with your theory is that Nixon cared about keeping the Republican party afloat. Trump does not. He ONLY ONLY ONLY cares about himself, and he will do WHATEVER it takes to maintain his position. If that means that he destroys the Republican party, so be it.
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He’ll go along. He won’t want a vote that goes against him either. Only President to ever be removed? Not a chance. And besides McConnell will offer a pardon from Pence. 

Trump will say he’s resigning for the sake of the nation, that he’s been framed and railroaded but that he’s doing this for the country, etc. Then he’ll continue to have rallies. He won’t go away. 

 
There's a 1% chance he's removed from office and a 99% chance he's impeached.  Political suicide for any R that does it.  Sure a few will flip but to expect 20 Republican senators to flip is just not going to happen.  I've seen zero pressure on Trump on the right-leaning twitter and forums that I try and check to understand what they are thinking.

If 20 R senators vote him to be removed, the party will collapse into a (politically speaking) civil war.  

 
0% to 5%.....I guess there's a chance the Republicans in the Senate  could "William Wallace" his ###.......but he's not resigning and they're not abandoning him.  

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
Anyone voting over 10% is WAY more optimistic than I am.  I voted 0%.  If the GOP pisses off Trump's base, 2020 will be a bloodbath.  Way way worse than 2008.  They are not going to come out to vote for down-ballot Republicans if those people just ousted Trump.

2020 is a redistricting year and the Supreme Court just said partisan gerrymandering is OK.  Democrats will lock down the House for the next 10 years and will do the same with lots of state legislatures.  They would also retake the Senate and White House convincingly.  Dems will make D.C. and Puerto Rico states, which will further solidify their grip on power.  They'll restore voting rights to felons and create a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants, the majority of whom are likely to vote Democratic.  It would bring in a long period of Democratic dominance. 

No way that 20 Republican Senators vote to destroy their party.  I predict a maximum of three Republican Senators would vote for removal.  That's probably over optimistic.
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This is pretty good. As bad as he is, and he probably hasn't done his worst yet, Trump remains the GOP's best chance of staving off the looming demographic disaster facing the party in the next two decades. Congressional Republicans may be bad people but they can count and they know they can't put the crazy base off to the side yet while they reshape the party to be more hospitable to minorities, women and yoot voters.

 
Zero.   There aren't enough Republicans with backbones to stand up for what's right.    They've basically given Trump carte blanche to do whatever he wants thereby setting a new standard for future presidents.   

 
timschochet said:
[scooter] said:
This assumes that Trump has a similar mentality as Nixon. That is a very wrong assumption, IMO.

If McConnell dared to go to the White House and "demand" that Trump resign, then Trump would immediately go nuclear on McConnell and anyone else voting against him, instructing his loyal supporters to vote against these Senators.

The problem with your theory is that Nixon cared about keeping the Republican party afloat. Trump does not. He ONLY ONLY ONLY cares about himself, and he will do WHATEVER it takes to maintain his position. If that means that he destroys the Republican party, so be it.
Click to expand...
He’ll go along. He won’t want a vote that goes against him either. Only President to ever be removed? Not a chance. And besides McConnell will offer a pardon from Pence. 

Trump will say he’s resigning for the sake of the nation, that he’s been framed and railroaded but that he’s doing this for the country, etc. Then he’ll continue to have rallies. He won’t go away. 
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Trump wouldn't "go along" because McConnell would never approach him in the first place. McConnell fears what would happen if Trump turned on him.

Also, you're completely discounting the possibility that McConnell approaches Trump, Trump goes nuclear on McConnell and the other Senators..........and THEN Trump resigns 30 seconds before the Senate votes to convict. THAT scenario would allow Trump to avoid being the only President ever to be removed AND it would destroy McConnell and every other Republican Senator who voted against Trump. It's the perfect scenario for a narcissistic sociopath.

 
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fatguyinalittlecoat said:
2020 is a redistricting year and the Supreme Court just said partisan gerrymandering is OK.  Democrats will lock down the House for the next 10 years and will do the same with lots of state legislatures.  They would also retake the Senate and White House convincingly.  Dems will make D.C. and Puerto Rico states, which will further solidify their grip on power.  They'll restore voting rights to felons and create a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants, the majority of whom are likely to vote Democratic.  It would bring in a long period of Democratic dominance. 
Click to expand...
This part reads like a Don’t Noonan nightmare.

 
Joe Bryant said:
Thanks. Another dumb question as I know you follow this and I don't really that much.

That's a pretty devastating picture for Republicans you paint. But I can see it. 

How likely a scenario would you think the above would be if the GOP angers Trump's base of supporters?

I guess I mean, assuming the GOP did this to Trump supporters, do you feel like you're going on on a limb on how things would fall after? Or do you feel pretty confident that would play out that way? What percentage of politically savvy people do you think would agree with you?
Click to expand...
I view it as extremely likely if the Senate voted to remove him.  I think most politically savvy people would agree.  Look at how terrified the Republicans are to piss off Trump's base.  They know.

 
30%, which is also about the current % of GOPer Senators that want to join the impeachment but won't because of polital blowback and fear.  

 
I said 10% because I still think it's a non-zero chance but it's highly unlikely that the GOP will risk alienating the Trump base. They're going down with the ship.

 
The Commish said:
I hadn't considered this...is this even an option?  I'd change my vote to slightly less than 0% if this was an option.  Seems EXACTLY like the option the cowardly GOP would take.  Oh the ####storm THAT vote would cause.  It would be the ultimate implosion.  
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I was looking into it and don't believe it is.  vote must be public.  Would be fun if it wasn't.

 
I put it at 20%. That’s probably too high, but I do think there’s a decent shot that enough Republican Senators in tough races like Collins and Gardner and a few wannabe iconoclasts who can sense a sea change (Romney, Sasse) could move so that there is a bare majority in the Senate in favor of removal. And if that were to happen, I can’t rule out the possibility that the argument that there is at least some bipartisan support for removal could move the public further in support and create a possibility of a mass exodus. 

 
20% or less. I'd go with closer to zero except I'm pretty sure there's also other illegal stuff the he's done that may get exposed if the start in with an impeachment investigation. In that case, there could be an avalanche of garbage worthy of expulsion even this collection of Republican Senators couldn't shrug off.

 
I voted 100%.  How Trump has also used his office to enrich himself at taxpayer expense will conjointly become a focus of impeachment proceedings and I think that is going to be not too difficult to prove.

Repeated exposures of his corruption over many weeks of testimony/evidence will inflame taxpayers, weaken opposition and eventually result in Trump cutting a deal (resignation or refusal to seek a second term) to avoid impeachment and later prosecution.

 
Moonlight said:
I voted 100%.  How Trump has also used his office to enrich himself at taxpayer expense will conjointly become a focus of impeachment proceedings and I think that is going to be not too difficult to prove.

Repeated exposures of his corruption over many weeks of testimony/evidence will inflame taxpayers, weaken opposition and eventually result in Trump cutting a deal (resignation or refusal to seek a second term) to avoid impeachment and later prosecution.
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reality ignored, just like all Dems.  Everything is based on emotion.

 
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I voted 60%, I think all of the stuff he's done over the past 3 years is going to catch up with him. I don't know if the Senate will actually vote to remove him, but it's going to be interesting to see what happens. I doubt his diehard supporters would take it well.

 
I said 70%.  I understand the R's don't have the spine to vote against him, but Trump is sliding down the slope now and I only see his situation getting worse.  The wolves smell blood.  We're approaching the stage of a non-functioning government, and that can't continue for a year (yes, I know it's been disfunctional for quite a while).

 
The Commish said:
I am greater than 90% confident that if McConnell went to Trump and asked for his resignation after explaining everything to him that Trump would laugh at him and tell him to pound sand.  Trump only cares about Trump.  This should be clear by now.
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:goodposting: . Anybody thinking Trump would resign, under any circumstance, doesnt understand Trump. 

 
Worth pointing out that on the eve of the Supreme Court ruling that forced the Nixon WH to release the tapes (and not just the "transcripts"), polling was at 53% for Impeachment and 47% against it.  Immediately after the SC ruling Nixon's political support collapsed and he was done for.  Only after that did Impeachment become popular with the public.

 
I voted 0%

Trump doesn't lose.

I was talking to a guy visiting from Canada. He said even though he hates Trump we would be stupid to get rid of him. The economy is great, The dollar is strong, and the nation is safe. He has to deal with the strong dollar and doesn't like it much. 

 
Mongidig said:
I voted 0%

Trump doesn't lose.

I was talking to a guy visiting from Canada. He said even though he hates Trump we would be stupid to get rid of him. The economy is great, The dollar is strong, and the nation is safe. He has to deal with the strong dollar and doesn't like it much. 
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Nation isn't that safe...the economy was great before him.  And the guy loses all the time.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
2020 is a redistricting year and the Supreme Court just said partisan gerrymandering is OK.  Democrats will lock down the House for the next 10 years and will do the same with lots of state legislatures.  They would also retake the Senate and White House convincingly.  Dems will make D.C. and Puerto Rico states, which will further solidify their grip on power.  They'll restore voting rights to felons and create a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants, the majority of whom are likely to vote Democratic.  It would bring in a long period of Democratic dominance. 
Click to expand...
I can envision plausible scenarios where all of this becomes more likely if Trump is on the ballot than if he’s not.

Speaking of which ... what happens if Trump is impeached and removed, but it happens too late to remove him from the ballot? Is that possible? Would the Republican Party urge voters to vote for Pence as a write-in candidate?

 
Mongidig said:
I voted 0%

Trump doesn't lose.

I was talking to a guy visiting from Canada. He said even though he hates Trump we would be stupid to get rid of him. The economy is great, The dollar is strong, and the nation is safe. He has to deal with the strong dollar and doesn't like it much. 
Click to expand...
To be honest, I work with Canadians and Australians on a daily basis, and whenever the topic of Trump comes up (which isn't daily, but happens enough), he's thoroughly trashed.  I don't bring it up, I don't talk politics with clients.  But regardless of what Americans think of him, and plenty like him sure, he is absolutely a laughingstock to the average joe Canadian and Australian.

I think many Americans (not you personally, but in general) fail to realize how closely foreigners follow US politics.  Trump is front and center news worldwide.  And it's not good news.

 
tonydead said:
No way. And not even close to the same thing.  
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Remember, we’re talking, theoretically,  about a situation in which he KNOWS he’s going to be convicted. You honestly think that if he knows that he would be willing to be the first President in history to be kicked out of office? And risk prosecution? I say not a chance. He’ll take the easy way out, claim he was railroaded. Easy call. 

 
timschochet said:
Remember, we’re talking, theoretically,  about a situation in which he KNOWS he’s going to be convicted. You honestly think that if he knows that he would be willing to be the first President in history to be kicked out of office? And risk prosecution? I say not a chance. He’ll take the easy way out, claim he was railroaded. Easy call. 
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OK if he knows hes going to be teleported to mars where a giant sand monster is going to eat him he might just resign to avoid that. 

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
I can envision plausible scenarios where all of this becomes more likely if Trump is on the ballot than if he’s not.

Speaking of which ... what happens if Trump is impeached and removed, but it happens too late to remove him from the ballot? Is that possible? Would the Republican Party urge voters to vote for Pence as a write-in candidate?
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He would remain on the ballot and potentially be elected to another term.

There's nothing in the Constitution that prevents an impeached President from running for office again.

Of course, he could be re-impeached, but depending upon the outcome of the 2020 Senate elections, he might survive a second vote.

 
[scooter] said:
There's nothing in the Constitution that prevents an impeached President from running for office again.
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Impeached and convicted. Article I, Section 3, Clause 7.

”Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.”

 
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