What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

FanDuel Week 5 (1 Viewer)

KarmaPolice

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Started my position lists for main slate.  I will look up RZ targets later, but started narrowing down the WRs by target %, air yard %, and aDOT.   

Here is the list of guys with 20%+ target share, 30%+ of the team air yards, AND an aDOT of at least 10 yards:

K.Allen, Hopkins, Evans, D.Adams, A.Robinson, M.Brown, J.Brown, Thielen, Julio, Sutton, C.Samuel, Chark.

I highlighted the sub-6K WRs, since once again there are some top $ RBs in good spots and we might need to save here.   

 
Small list of TEs with 15%+ target share, 20%+ of air yards, and aDOT of 8yds+:

Ertz, Andrews, Olsen, Walker

 
Raging weasel said:
These 4 plus Dissly,Engram and whoever is playing Ariz are my TE cash pool every week.
Click to expand...
I think Eifert is only 4.6k or something nutty like that.  Also G.Tate is only 4.5K.  Throw those 2 in and you probably could jam in 3 elite RBs this week.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Seems like the pricing is easy this week.  Feels like I like about 10 WRs under 6K, and GB DT could be an interesting gpp option with Dallas LT out.  

Put this together on the fly:

Ryan - McCaffrey/Cook/D.Johnson - Julio/Fuller/Ridley - Walker - GB.  

 
My cash placeholder

Jackson,Cook, Fournette,Evans,Fitz,Sutton,Eifert,DJ,Pat's

Also looking at Wentz or Brady for cash

 
Raging weasel said:
These 4 plus Dissly,Engram and whoever is playing Ariz are my TE cash pool every week.
Click to expand...


KarmaPolice said:
I think Eifert is only 4.6k or something nutty like that.  Also G.Tate is only 4.5K.  Throw those 2 in and you probably could jam in 3 elite RBs this week.  
Click to expand...
Eifert may be cheap, and yes it is Arizona, but I do not trust that Cincy offense at all.  In fact, I am eyeballing the Arizona defense as my cash D this week.  I think I will stay away from Eifert unless I get desperate for a place to save.

 
Haven't looked at too much yet, but Cook and D. Johnson are good candidates to be my core RBs...Actually eyeballing Gordon as well, but not sure I can go there yet.  Winston at QB could be involved in another shootout

 
Galileo said:
Eifert may be cheap, and yes it is Arizona, but I do not trust that Cincy offense at all.  In fact, I am eyeballing the Arizona defense as my cash D this week.  I think I will stay away from Eifert unless I get desperate for a place to save.
Click to expand...
I hear you.  I don't think it's as easy as play who's going against AZ.   I think DJ is way too cheap, and I would probably rather have Tate at 4.5k.  I don't think you need either though - like I said, i really like a lot of WRs in the 5.4-5.9K range.  

I think in cash I might be starting with something like L.Jackson - McCaff/Cook/DJ and going from there.  

 
Seems like the RB's are the only chalk thing at first glance.  

You're almost required to run DJ and Cook in some way.  After that it's kind of up in the air.  Personally I like James Conner (if healthy), Mixon good matchup, Fournette isn't bad, or if you're going cheaper, Miles Sanders, Ronald Jones, David Montgomery possible plays.  All might be cash viable.  

WR chalk seems like it could include someone that nobody has used this entire year.  Stefon Diggs.  Along with him I like Nuk, Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Edelman, Tyrell Williams, Sutton, Curtis Samuel, Marquise Brown.  All with good matchups and seem to be on "prove it" weeks in a way.  

TE depends on the slate you play I think.  Kittle is so cheap if you go through Monday for one of the best TE's in the league coming off a bye.  He's a no brainer, but he's Monday night.  The main slate Greg Olsen and Jared Cook seem to stand out at the price.  Other than that it kind of looks ugly.

Not an easy slate to feel comfortable with off the bat.  

My first glance at a cash lineup came out to this:

Deshaun Watson 

Dalvin, DJ, Conner

Allen Robinson, Diggs, Edelman

Olsen

Minnesota

WR isn't comfortable but it leaves me with $500 still to play with an upgrade elsewhere 

 
As usual I start my research with whether or not I can make a good cash lineup with Mahomes and the best chalk, reliable RBs.  This week that's Cook, CMC, and maybe DJ.  

I get:

Mahomes,

Cook, CMC, D Johnson

Fitz, Sutton, M. Brown (ugh)

Engram

49ers D

 
Here is my current placeholder...

Winston, CMC, Cook, D. Johnson, Allen, Edelman, Sutton, Eifert, ARI

$300 sitting idle...would really like to change TE, but $300 isn't going to get me anywhere worthwhile...may need to come down from Allen to do it.  Kyler Murray might buy me a couple hundred in salary too...I like that Cincy match up for him.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Zyphros said:
Seems like the RB's are the only chalk thing at first glance.  

You're almost required to run DJ and Cook in some way.  After that it's kind of up in the air.  Personally I like James Conner (if healthy), Mixon good matchup, Fournette isn't bad, or if you're going cheaper, Miles Sanders, Ronald Jones, David Montgomery possible plays.  All might be cash viable.  

WR chalk seems like it could include someone that nobody has used this entire year.  Stefon Diggs.  Along with him I like Nuk, Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Edelman, Tyrell Williams, Sutton, Curtis Samuel, Marquise Brown.  All with good matchups and seem to be on "prove it" weeks in a way.  

TE depends on the slate you play I think.  Kittle is so cheap if you go through Monday for one of the best TE's in the league coming off a bye.  He's a no brainer, but he's Monday night.  The main slate Greg Olsen and Jared Cook seem to stand out at the price.  Other than that it kind of looks ugly.

Not an easy slate to feel comfortable with off the bat.  

My first glance at a cash lineup came out to this:

Deshaun Watson 

Dalvin, DJ, Conner

Allen Robinson, Diggs, Edelman

Olsen

Minnesota

WR isn't comfortable but it leaves me with $500 still to play with an upgrade elsewhere 
Click to expand...
IMO, Diggs seems a bit thin for cash.  I know the WRs are chirping in Minny, but they have the 2nd lowest pass% as a team on the season.  I guess maybe last week was the trend up?

 
This is a little harder than I thought for the week.  Seems like more RBs have seen a pop up in usage over the last couple weeks.  I have 12 written down that have 20 touches/g average over the last few weeks.  Then a few others like R.Jones, Howard, Gallaman that have seen that usage in a game or two during that time.  

Seems like looking at stats it's D.Johnson and Cook for cash, and then deciding between McCaffrey and Zeke.  Zeke has the better team total and OL/DL matchup, but not sure how to process the LT injury.  

For gpps I think guys like Gallman, D.Montg, A.Jones, Fournette, Kamara, Mixon come into play.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
IMO, Diggs seems a bit thin for cash.  I know the WRs are chirping in Minny, but they have the 2nd lowest pass% as a team on the season.  I guess maybe last week was the trend up?
Click to expand...
My first thought was it's the Giants so they use it as a tune up for their passing game.  Maybe I'm wrong here as there's really no data behind it, but if Jenkins is out again for NYG then I see him as a solid play, even with the trend of super run friendly so far.  

 
Zyphros said:
My first thought was it's the Giants so they use it as a tune up for their passing game.  Maybe I'm wrong here as there's really no data behind it, but if Jenkins is out again for NYG then I see him as a solid play, even with the trend of super run friendly so far.  
Click to expand...
we are on the same page here - just thinking out loud and talking through the process.  

Yeah, I am going more on how little they are throwing in general, but Diggs is cheap, got more last week, and the WRs have been #####ing about their O.  The other thing that gave me pause was I didn't think their O was that good or in such a smash spot that Diggs/Cook in the same LU was cash-worthy.  Dunno.  

 
Really struggling with QB this week.  So used to plugging in Mahomes and not thinking about it.  

Right now I have:

7.8K for a QB - McCaffrey or Zeke/Cook/D.Johnson - K.Allen/Edelman/C.Samuel - Eifert - NO

 
KarmaPolice said:
Really struggling with QB this week.  So used to plugging in Mahomes and not thinking about it.  

Right now I have:

7.8K for a QB - McCaffrey or Zeke/Cook/D.Johnson - K.Allen/Edelman/C.Samuel - Eifert - NO
Click to expand...
Watson seems to be the popular chalk play at QB this week.  ATL pass rush is garbage so he should have a good floor.  I really like Brady to bounce back too.  

Mahomes is just too expensive this week to make a good cash team with.  

Stick Brady in that lineup above and I think you have a good start.  

 
Early look at Cash LU

Prelem look prior to the Sharp report coming out, have a feeling DCook will be the player this week.  Will give a more in depth post of the LU sometime tomorrow

Watson/L4/Cook/Hopk/Fitz/MBrown/Eifert/DJ/NE

 
Megla said:
It will matter, if Ramsey is a no go then yea, but if not this def is not easy to run on
Click to expand...
CMC is pretty much matchup proof, but its not a terrible matchup.  Favorable game script at home. Football outsiders has JAX ranked 23rd against the run and 24th in pass D vs. RBs.

And guys like Carlos Hyde and LeSean McCoy did decent against JAX, and CMC is leagues above them.  

 
Scoresman said:
CMC is pretty much matchup proof, but its not a terrible matchup.  Favorable game script at home. Football outsiders has JAX ranked 23rd against the run and 24th in pass D vs. RBs.

And guys like Carlos Hyde and LeSean McCoy did decent against JAX, and CMC is leagues above them.  
Click to expand...
Buyer be ware if Ramsey plays.

Week 1 was an apparition in all phases of the def and McCoy only had 83 yards rushing

Week 2 Hyde had 90 yards and no TDs, Jags gave up no rec yards to RBs

Week 3 Henry had 44 rush yards and a TD and the Tenn RBs had a total of 2 Rec for 9 yards

Week 4 with no Ramsey Lindsey had 49 rush yards and RBs had 6 rec for 49 yards between 3 RBs

That's 3 rushing TDs on the year, 1 by a QB and 0 Rec TDs for RBs

Just saying overall ranking don't always give a clear picture of what is happening

 
Scoresman said:
Watson seems to be the popular chalk play at QB this week.  ATL pass rush is garbage so he should have a good floor.  I really like Brady to bounce back too.  

Mahomes is just too expensive this week to make a good cash team with.  

Stick Brady in that lineup above and I think you have a good start.  
Click to expand...
That was my initial thought, but I am not so sure he will need to.  Do you see Washington doing anything meaningful against the NE defense?  I don't see a need for them to be throwing the ball.

 
Galileo said:
Eifert may be cheap, and yes it is Arizona, but I do not trust that Cincy offense at all.  In fact, I am eyeballing the Arizona defense as my cash D this week.  I think I will stay away from Eifert unless I get desperate for a place to save.
Click to expand...
I like your thoughts on Eifert. You're making me second guess using him even in GPPs.

 
Galileo said:
That was my initial thought, but I am not so sure he will need to.  Do you see Washington doing anything meaningful against the NE defense?  I don't see a need for them to be throwing the ball.
Click to expand...
It's a concern, but the NE running game just isn't very good.  I read a stat that said Sony Michel is dead last or near dead last in broken tackles. I can see NE getting a huge lead and then running, but I feel Brady would be a big part of getting that huge lead.  

 
jdoggydogg said:
I like your thoughts on Eifert. You're making me second guess using him even in GPPs.
Click to expand...
I think he's worth the price.  Dalton and Cincinnati always look like crap in primetime games.  They've been reasonably competent in other games this year and are now at home against a not good Arizona team who is REALLY not good against TEs.  

There are TEs I like better for sure, but Eifert lets me build the rest of my team the way I'd like.  

 
jdoggydogg said:
I like your thoughts on Eifert. You're making me second guess using him even in GPPs.
Click to expand...
Ha ha...don't blame me if things go south!  Sadly, I actually have him in my line up right now.  I will need to make a significant change elsewhere if I swap him out.  To be honest, I don't feel comfortable with any TEs until I get to Waller, but that is almost a $2k difference!!!

 
jdoggydogg said:
Am I nuts to own a ton of David Johnson in GPPs this week? Cincy allowed 18 catches to RBs last Monday. 
Click to expand...
I think he is a great play at the price he is going for, but expect a high ownership %.  That's OK if you if you consider that in building the remainder of your line up.

ETA...remember the reason Cincy gave all that up to RBs may not so much be a statement about their weakness on defense as it was a statement about the capabilities of the Pittsburgh offense.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
jdoggydogg said:
Am I nuts to own a ton of David Johnson in GPPs this week? Cincy allowed 18 catches to RBs last Monday. 
Click to expand...
Here is stuff that I was thinking about as I looked at DJ's stats (and remember - he's in my cash LU right now).  

What might make me look away in gpp a little bit is his RZ usage, Vegas total, and that this isn't a ppr site.  

So looking at the % of team rushes inside the 20, 10, and 5 yard lines, D.Johnson is 50%, 50%, and 100%.    Because he has a running Qb, K.Murray takes 33% of the carries in the RZ and decreases his scoring TD upside a little.  They don't pass to him much either - he gets 10% of the team targets in the RZ - a lot go to Fitz and Kirk, but they spread the wealth a bit.   By contrast, somebody like A.Jones gets 75%, 75%, and 100% of the rushing work and still gets 10% of the RZ targets.  

Just used this example because both are the same price, basically the same Vegas team total, and average the same amount of touches/g over the last few games - but one has more RZ usage and will probably be a lot less owned.  

Again, not telling you to not play DJ, just talking outloud here and sharing stuff that I was noticing as I looked through stats this week.  

 
Scoresman said:
Watson seems to be the popular chalk play at QB this week.  ATL pass rush is garbage so he should have a good floor.  I really like Brady to bounce back too.  

Mahomes is just too expensive this week to make a good cash team with.  

Stick Brady in that lineup above and I think you have a good start.  
Click to expand...
I think I am just going to have to find a way to fit L.Jackson in the QB spot.  

I wrote down a list of 13 QBs with the highest attempts/g in the last 3 games.  Then I also looked at expected completion %, air yards, Vegas totals, etc..  and he seemed to still have the most boxes checked.  Add to that this 9-10 rushing attempts/game and you start with a 5-6 point floor for cash.  

The other couple that checked many boxes were Ryan, Rivers, and Wentz.  

Interesting list when I looked at the lowest expected completion % and a couple that might regress were Winston, Rodgers, Prescott, Wilson.  Cousins was also at the bottom.   

 
Granted, it's a couple years old, but I was looking at a graph of fantasy points correlations for dfs for a reminder.  A lot was obvious - ie QB + WR1 was the highest. But a couple takeaways that I like to remind myself:

-  Qb + TE was higher than QB+ WR2.  

-  The 2nd highest correlation on the board was QB + opposing QB.  So, if you really like a game for a shootout and are multi-entering, it might be a good idea to make the same LU with the opposing QB too.  

-  for running it back in a game stack, I was surprised to see that the Opposing RB1 had a slightly higher correlation than opposing WR1.   

-  everybody talks about RB + Def correlation, but according to the chart it's behind just about every other combo for offenses and opposing offenses you could do, but it's a popular way to stack still.   Again, according to this chart, QB+RB2 is slightly more correlated than DT+RB1.  

IMO the long and short of this is also what we were talking about with gpps/chalk plays, etc..   Another way to have chalk guys and have a unique LU would be to stack them in ways that correlate, but might not be as popular.   Also since seeing this last year, the DT+RB stuck in my head.  I play weird DTs with sack and TO potential a lot in gpps.  If I have the RB from that team in the LU already - cool, but I don't make a point to do it.  

So thinking about this week/chalk/getting different for gpp but not insane - I assume GB/Dallas, TB/NO, Atl/Houst and AZ/Cinc will be spots people look at and have some chalky players.  Also I assume game stacks like:   Winston/Godwin + M.Thomas will be popular.   Or McCaffrey/Carolina D.   Or Watson/Hopkins + Julio  Or K.Murray + Fitz + Boyd

What about:   Winston/Evans + Kamara?    Minshew/Chark + McCaffrey?   K.Murray + D.Johnson + Eifert?

Also, I TRY To think about that and have a couple correlating plays in my gpps for even more boom/bust in large field gpps.  So just now I wrote down to look at something like Rodgers/MVS + Zeke in a lineup + Hooper/Hopkins from that game.  Still a bit of chalk, but a MAYBE a different way to do it?  Then add a weird D and a couple other pieces....

 
Scoresman said:
As usual I start my research with whether or not I can make a good cash lineup with Mahomes and the best chalk, reliable RBs.  This week that's Cook, CMC, and maybe DJ.  

I get:

Mahomes,

Cook, CMC, D Johnson

Fitz, Sutton, M. Brown (ugh)

Engram

49ers D
Click to expand...
I just saw this after I entered my LU.   I have a Sun-Mon 10man league, and I am using a similar "studs and scrubs" approach.   I just put in for a placeholder:

Mahomes - CMC/Zeke/Cook - Sutton/M.Brown/C.Samuel - Eifert - 9ers.  

I also put in for 4 cheap 25cent entries for that slate and I am going to probably keep the core of all the positions besides WR and just rotate guys like Chark, Moore, Kirk, J.Brown, Sanders, Tate into that that LU.  Most on that list are still getting good target share, air yards, etc..   

 
More ramblings - I was looking at my list and comparing it to the ownership %, and IMO this week is very much like what we were talking about - hard to get away from the chalk 10%+ owned RBs, and I might not even try.   

However, I have my usual list of WRs with 20% of their teams targets and 30% of their team air yards (most of that list is in the OP - few less names on there b/c I looked for high aDOT on those guys too).  For the main slate, that list was 14 and 8 of them had sub 10% projected ownership and 4 or 5 had 3% or less projected.   Of the 14, 7 are sub-6K salaries too, so it's not like I am just talking about Hopkins and Julio salaries here.  

Also, talking about DTs for gpps one of my main stops is RG or football outsiders.  I look at the adjusted sack rate for the OL vs. adjusted sack rate for the DL.  RG had it free on their NFL first look page in a nice "sack potential" column.   Of their top 5 for the main slate, 3 are 3% projected or less and all 3 are sub 4K DTs.  

ETA:  for comparision of RBS/WR ownership, of my list of 11 RBs with 20+carries/game average, only 1 had an ownership projection of <10% and just barely so.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
OK

Week #5 Cash LUs

#1

As usual I'm starting my base with the Sharp recommendation, WR ATate at  $5300.00.  With Ross on IR and Cincy playing Ariz this looks like a goo spot for Tate.  Cicny scores over 50% of their points via the pass and Ariz gives up over 50% of their points via the pass.

Next I'm spending up at Def and going with NE at $5500, they are playing at such a high level and the Skins cant even name a starting QB, yes please

At QB I'm going DWatson at $8000 and I'm going to stack with WR Hopkins at $8500.  Atl is terrible against #1 WRs and Vegas has Houst scoring 26+ this week.

At RB I'm going Fournette at $6900, he has a great matchup against Carolina who is giving up 4.9 ypr and Minshew is wearing a knee brace from hits he took in the Den game.  Jax will look to protect him by running often against a Carolina Def that is very good against the pass.

Also at RB I'm going Zek at $8800, GB is allowing 5.0 ypr this year and I'm just not sold on McCaff against the Jags, I might be homering here but RBs have not had a lot of success against them and if Ramsey plays I don't like McCaff at $9100.  Lastly at RB I will be going DJ at $6800 in a up tempo game against a bad rush Def in Cincy.

At TE I'm sticking with the play against Ariz theme and playing Eifert at $4600.00.  Yea yea I know, 2 Cincy receiving slots in a cash LU??  Against Ariz and the number of plays Cincy should get with the tempo I'm OK with it.

That leaves one WR slot and $5600, I like two options here, E Sanders at $5600 and MBrown at $5400.  Balt is projected to score 23.75, Den 19 and I don't like the trend in Den of Sutton getting more targets and RZ targets so I'm going MBrown here

Watson/L4/Zeke/ATate/Hopkins/MBrown/Eifert/DJ/NE, IVC has this at 127.3 and the Optimizer has it at 128.11 with a ceiling of 174.4

Also going with a #2 Cash LU of

LJack/Kamara/Cook/ESanders/ATate/Fitz/MAndrews/L4/NE, the IVC has this at 134.9 and the optimizer has it at 135.86 with a ceiling of 183.31

Interesting enough I actually prefer LU #1

Good luck

 
I'm hearing more and more that Dalvin Cook isn't a cash option this week.  Part of the reason is that they are 1. likely in a negative gamescript, 2. They're going to want to throw against the Giants, and 3. Everyone called out their pass game so they're going to want to get that on track so they can be a balanced team moving forward.  

 
Zyphros said:
I'm hearing more and more that Dalvin Cook isn't a cash option this week.  Part of the reason is that they are 1. likely in a negative gamescript, 2. They're going to want to throw against the Giants, and 3. Everyone called out their pass game so they're going to want to get that on track so they can be a balanced team moving forward.  
Click to expand...
I don't understand how anyone can come to the conclusion of #1??  They are 5.5 point road favs, they are projected to score 25.5, NYG are projected to score 20, how is this going to be a negative game script? 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Megla said:
I don't understand how anyone can come to the conclusion of #1??  They are 5.5 point road favs, they are projected to score 25.5, NYG are projected to score 20, how is this going to be a negative game script? 
Click to expand...
I think the theory was because they are on the road, and all they can do is run the ball.  If they can't pass they won't be able to keep up.  

This wasn't my conclusion for the game, just someone's rational as to why Cook wouldn't be a chalk option as much as it might look like it is.  

 
Zyphros said:
I think the theory was because they are on the road, and all they can do is run the ball.  If they can't pass they won't be able to keep up.  

This wasn't my conclusion for the game, just someone's rational as to why Cook wouldn't be a chalk option as much as it might look like it is.  
Click to expand...
That's crazy, sounds like a NYG's fan theory.  In what world does a 5.5 road favorite have to keep up, LOL, is the NYG offense going to score at will against a very good Minn, top 10 def, don't think so

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

KarmaPolice
Draftkings Week 9
Replies
42
Views
1K
Caesar
Caesar
Scoresman
Fanduel Week 6
2
Replies
65
Views
2K
Cabby
C
NixonMask
Fanduel Week 9
5 6 7
Replies
322
Views
9K
sooted72
S

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top