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*** Official Road to the 2020 Belmont Stakes * * * MAXFIELD OUT (1 Viewer)

I actually like it. Shorter race first building to the Derby at a mile and a quarter. Too early for these to go a mile and a half.

if Charlatan doesn’t mind the sandy/cuppy track it’ll be a procession 

 
Judge Smails said:
I actually like it. Shorter race first building to the Derby at a mile and a quarter. Too early for these to go a mile and a half.

if Charlatan doesn’t mind the sandy/cuppy track it’ll be a procession 
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yeah, pretty much fait accompli that the distance was gonna be cut back once that date was floated - it makes nothing but sense, and it's the right decision - which we're not used to in this gig, but it was more by attrition than anything else ... they really had no other choice. 

as far as Charly showin' up - he's nominated, along with Raffa ... we're in uncharted waters here, to see BB toss them head to head, and vs Tiz, would be too good to be true, especially in this more compact field than the Derby will be. 

 
It makes total sense the way they did it but...

1) Is NY really ready? I know there's no fans but the horses and support folks have to get there ahead of time. This isn't NASCAR where haulers are leaving company HQ same day to go to Darlington.

B) If a horse wins the Triple Crown how huge is the asterisk that the Belmont was a reduced difference?

 
JaxBill said:
It makes total sense the way they did it but...

1) Is NY really ready? I know there's no fans but the horses and support folks have to get there ahead of time. This isn't NASCAR where haulers are leaving company HQ same day to go to Darlington.
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NYRA has been preparing for the early June opening for awhile - the Belmont will be run 2 weeks after the official start (June 5th) - don't really see too much of a logistical problem, that backside is one of the best in the biz. 

JaxBill said:
B) If a horse wins the Triple Crown how huge is the asterisk that the Belmont was a reduced difference?
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i'd be shocked if we get a TC winner this year - most unlikely considering this lot - cases can be made for a solid 4 being best in the game right now, and that's not factoring the relatively deep second tier, which currently features legit beast Maxfield, who will probably reinsert himself into that upper echelon after Saturday's Winn at Churchill. 

not to mention the new shooters who are not even on the radar yet, but rounding into form (see Cezanne).

if there is an asterik due to the facacta shuffling and reordering of the tests, not to mention the cutback on Big Sandy, i think it would more than be overwritten by a massive talent finishing first THREE TIMES vs this crop ... i'd say it'll be a wash, as far as the history books are concerned, in that scenario - but if one horse can establish dominance over this phenomenal crop, well, i'd consider it one of the legjt all-timers, purists be damned. 

 
🐴 Current Belmont Offshore Futures 🐴

these are all nominated probables:

Charly +250

Tiz +250

Raffa +350

Dr Post +1600

Honor A.P +1600

Sole Volante +2000

Basin +2500

Farmington Road +2500

Gouverneur Morris +2500

Max Player +2500

Wells Bayou +2500

Modernist +3300

interesting to note that the S.A. Derby is slated for June 6th ... probably why Authentic isn't here ... would've figured Honor A.P. as staying in Cali. 

that field speaks to what i pointed out earlier ... being able to get horses like Sole Volante/Honor A.P. at those juicy ### high numbers shows how steep this class is. 

hell, i'll toss some coin on Wells Bayou ... speedy cat who knows one way home - from the engine. 

worth a shot at that number. 

this is simply a mind blowing gift of a field, though ... look at those possibilities!  :thumbup:

 
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otb_lifer said:
Maxfield

just romped in the Futurity at Keeneland ... big, beautiful, powerful - blew the ####### doors off the field - had plenty left in the tank.  

by Street Sense, out of a Bernardini bottom ... oh, and won his maiden try at Churchill. 

i'm usually not one for futures, things flip on a ####### dime in this gig ... and we've seen a few recent vintage Derby winners not even being offered on the first or second fututes go 'round. 

but this beast is a beast. 

trained by Walsh, shed at Godolphin barn ... if you never see me in this thread again, just remember who gave ya the winner:

MAXFIELD. 
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damn near an 8 month layoff ... but he's finally back!

post #10 in Race #10 today at Churchill, the GrIII Matt Winn Stakes, at 1m1/16th.

won his first ever start over this track some 9 months ago ... rallying from the back to take a 1m Mdn95k in 1:37 flat (87bsf) - he followed that up with the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, cited in my op of this thread (same distance as today, 99bsf).

robust 11 horse field here, and this is a pretty decent bunch to face in a first off the 8 month bench ... not a crew of tomato cans, i assure you. 

attention gotta be tossed to the #1 Mystic Guide, #2 Pneumatic, #6 NY Traffic, #11 Attachment Rate, #12 Major Fred.

pretty wide open bunch - Max is the best horse here, but the 8 month rust/working back into Stakes shape could be enough of an equalizer.  in short, he'll be tested, and it wouldn't shock me to see him punch the clock here with underneath spoils - what would shock me is if he misses the board entirely. 

his works have been top-notch in prep ... and they'll be plenty of early pace from NY Traffic for him to close into (he'll be joined late by Major Fred).

Pnuematic really intrigues me in this slot ... steady improvement, patiently handled ... think he's ready to uncork a monster - Asmussen/Santana are killing it - undefeated in 2 starts (6f/1m) bagging a 94 and 95, respectively - his last work was a so so breeze, but he did punch a 5f bullet in :60 flat two weeks ago - he's ready. 

NY Traffic gonna lay it down, then we get Pnuematic, Max, Fred joining him at the turn for home ... should be a good one - and, if Max is fit, look up above to see what can happen. 

big day of Stakes out there, great to see them back - oh, and btw, with the Derby still 3+ months away, i'm still alive on my call for Max to take it down 🐴

 
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.20 P6 Churchill

2,3,4,10/4,6,8/9,14/7,10,13,14/2,6,10,11/1,5  =  $153.60

Winn, Race 10

$2 tri-key box 2 w 6/10/11/12 = $72

 
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🐴 MAXFIELD 🐴

didn't exactly get the swiftest pace, was fanned out 4 wide ... but got steadied and set down perfectly for the drive, inhaling 2 pretty decent horses in Pnuematic and NY Traffic (who actually rated today, contributing to the more tepid early pace).

that move looked pretty damn good for first time out since October 5th ... the Belmont/TC just got a whoooole lot more interesting.

 
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otb_lifer said:
🐴 MAXFIELD 🐴

didn't exactly get the swiftest pace, was fanned out 4 wide ... but got steadied and set down perfectly for the drive, inhaling 2 pretty decent horses in Pnuematic and NY Traffic (who actually rated today, contributing to the more tepid early pace).

that move looked pretty damn good for first time out since October 5th ... the Belmont/TC just got a whoooole lot more interesting.
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forward to Elmont!

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
Unfortunately, horses popping hot doesn’t surprise me anymore 
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yeah ... can't argue with that. 

but we're finally sitting on a plan for this season, deepest crop in who knows how long - now THIS.  

a doped up potential TC winner slaps this sport at a time when it was picking up some steam,

the Servis bust still fresh on the memory, as well. 

 
otb_lifer said:
yeah ... can't argue with that. 

but we're finally sitting on a plan for this season, deepest crop in who knows how long - now THIS.  

a doped up potential TC winner slaps this sport at a time when it was picking up some steam,

the Servis bust still fresh on the memory, as well. 
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Yep

####### sucks 

 
otb_lifer said:
yeah ... can't argue with that. 

but we're finally sitting on a plan for this season, deepest crop in who knows how long - now THIS.  

a doped up potential TC winner slaps this sport at a time when it was picking up some steam,

the Servis bust still fresh on the memory, as well. 
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I can understand that but there's always the argument that even if one of these 3 year olds won the TC it's tainted as 1) they were run out of order and the Belmont was shortened making the Derby the longest leg 2) the spacing of the three races makes for much more recovery, the whole TC feat was to win these 3 grueling races in 5 weeks with the final leg being a 1 1/2 and 3) The later starts are making for more mature and stronger 3 year olds. It's uncharted territory and crazy times we are living in

 
Also, with the Haskill and possibly the Travers stakes being Derby preps, are they being limited to 3 year old fields?

 
Louis Cella, the owner and president of Oaklawn Park, said the commission was “grabbing the bull by the horns.”

“We will not have a situation like in California, where a horse ran in the Kentucky Derby after failing a drug test,” Cella said, referring to a test failed by Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown winner. “That was an embarrassment to the industry. We will push to have this cleared up by the Belmont Stakes.”
 

the Justy #### hits the fan again.

 
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otb_lifer said:
Louis Cella, the owner and president of Oaklawn Park, said the commission was “grabbing the bull by the horns.”

“We will not have a situation like in California, where a horse ran in the Kentucky Derby after failing a drug test,” Cella said, referring to a test failed by Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown winner. “That was an embarrassment to the industry. We will push to have this cleared up by the Belmont Stakes.”
 

the Justy #### hits the fan again.
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is this all about EIPH, like usual, or steroids kinda stuff? i dont follow anymore

 
as per BloodHorse:

One day after reports surfaced that Charlatan failed an initial drug test following his victory in the first division of the May 2 Arkansas Derby (G1), the 3-year-old returned to the work tab for an easy half-mile drill and may have a new target for his next race.

The :50 work May 27 at Santa Anita Park for trainer Bob Baffert was the first for Charlatan since his victory in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, which is now in dispute following the May 26 reports that post-race testing revealed traces of a banned substance.

A split sample is now being tested and if it confirms the initial positive that would likely result in the disqualification of Charlatan and a redistribution of purse money and Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) qualifying points from the win at Oaklawn.

And while Charlatan and fellow Baffert trainee Nadal, winner of the second division of the Arkansas Derby, were mentioned as candidates for the June 20 Belmont Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, Baffert is backing away from plans to run both horses in the opening leg of the 2020 Triple Crown. He will most likely point Charlatan toward the seven-furlong, $250,000 Woody Stephens Stakes Presented by Claiborne Farm (G1), one of four graded events on the Belmont Stakes undercard, and run Nadal in the Belmont.

Plans to run Charlatan in the Woody Stephens were being discussed before the news of the drug positive, according to Baffert and a member of the colt's ownership group that includes SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Fred Hertrich III, John Fielding, and Golconda Stables. If Charlatan runs in the Woody Stephens, it would likely be a steppingstone to a start in the July 18 TVG.com Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park.

"I really don't want to run both horses in the (Belmont Stakes). The Woody Stephens was an option for Charlatan before (Tuesday) and I'm not going to let what happened since then change my thinking," said Baffert, who did not discuss any particulars of the failed drug test, citing confidentiality. "I don't want to rule anything out, because I may not like the way Nadal is training and I might start just Charlatan in the Belmont. In a perfect world, both of them will not start in the Belmont, but we'll see. It's still three weeks away."

As for the workout, which was the 23rd fastest of 37 at the distance, Baffert's goal was to teach the speedy son of Speightstown  to relax and rate.

"I worked Charlatan with another horse and made him relax next to him. I was teaching him to rate," Baffert said. "At Oaklawn, I told them to let him go and get the job done."

While the Belmont Stakes may lose one of its headliners, it could pick up another intriguing candidate in Unbridled Stakes winner Dr Post, who has captured two of his three career starts. Trainer Todd Pletcher said Wednesday he is considering running St. Elias Stable's son of Quality Road  in the 1 1/8-mile test along with Farmington Road and Gouverneur Morris. 

Gouverneur Morris was third behind Charlatan and Basin in the Arkansas Derby and if there is a disqualification after the release of the split sample, he would be elevated to second and receive an additional $50,000 in purse money and 20 more points toward a start in the Kentucky Derby.

The Arkansas Derby, which carried a purse of $500,000 in each division, awarded $300,000 to the winners and 100-40-20-10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top four finishers in each split.

:kicksrock:

 
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so, we now get a bit of starch taken outta what would've been one of the greatest TC fields in ages ... still gonna be a tremendous battle, and a very competitive bunch - but BB is full of #### saying Charly was kinda pointing towards the Stephens even prior to Lidocaine-gate. 

still think Raffa was gonna wind up the better of the two when it was all said and done ... Tiz and Max are gonna have a ton more to say about this shake out going forward. 

 
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Cowboysfan8 said:
wtf 

☹️
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it was a ride.

... and the plot sickens.

Max just shot right up on Tiz's ###, though ... those two could be the Affirmed/Alydar of this era. 

still not buying Authentic as in their class ... matter of fact, it just very well may be Honor A.P. waving the West Coast banner when we finally get cookin'

 
darn good horse. not an unprecedented one like Charly, but the best performer so far. we'd be wrapping up the TC in a wk in a normal year - shame that foursome wont get to show itself as maybe an unprecedented class

 
otb_lifer said:
it was a ride.

... and the plot sickens.

Max just shot right up on Tiz's ###, though ... those two could be the Affirmed/Alydar of this era. 

still not buying Authentic as in their class ... matter of fact, it just very well may be Honor A.P. waving the West Coast banner when we finally get cookin'
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Now have both Tiz and Maxfield at 8-1 in the Derby.  Kinda stupefied my book had not taken KD odds down with these issues the last two days.  Tiz now 4-1.  I'm tempted to double up on both at those odds.

 
facook said:
Now have both Tiz and Maxfield at 8-1 in the Derby.  Kinda stupefied my book had not taken KD odds down with these issues the last two days.  Tiz now 4-1.  I'm tempted to double up on both at those odds.
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you got a fixed 8-1?  how long ago was that? 

 
otb_lifer said:
you got a fixed 8-1?  how long ago was that? 
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Tiz was just before Florida on your rec.  Maxfield was today.  Both fixed 8-1.  Tiz is now 4-1 fixed, Max 8-1.

Would you lay more on both at those odds?

 
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facook said:
Tiz was just before Florida on your rec.  Maxfield was today.  Both fixed 8-1.  Tiz is now 4-1 fixed, Max 8-1.
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:hifive:

damn ... long way to Churchill, and anything can happen (look at all the ripped up futures scattering in today's wind), but dual 8-1 on TizMax is two Willie Wonka Golden Tickets atm ... one would be lucky to get either over 5/2 come Churchill if their forms hold ... and if it's less than the customary 20 horse field, you can knock that down to maybe 2-1, if that. 

good on ya, let's keep 'em both healthy ✌

 
General Malaise said:
Looks like two stakes races at Churchill and one at Santa Anita on Saturday. :thumbup:
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Chantal Sutherland is on the 4 in the Mint Julep

I didn’t even know she was riding again

 
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