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*** Official Road to the 2020 Belmont Stakes * * * MAXFIELD OUT


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10 hours ago, elguapo07 said:

I got 20-1 on Max in March

 

6 hours ago, Judge Smails said:

My buddy has 18-1 on Max for the Derby. Another had Charlatan at 20-1 for a grand. 

first futures i posted here had Max at roughly 20-1, so right up with those two fixes ... i recall remarking at the time that it showed a ton of respect for him, seeing as he still hadn't even hit the track in rehab yet. 

but for @facook to bag him at 8-1 after the Winn and the Charly/Raffa bull####, well ... that's a pretty sweet nab in it's own right. 

 

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to *** Official Road to the 2020 Belmont Stakes * * * Raffa To The Shed, Futures Look Good For Thread Muse Maxfield - Bill James Is Still A Richard
10 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Damn

Isn’t Palm Meadows notoriously slow?

it may be a tad cuppy, but i don't recall it being on the slow side - not saying it isn't, just don't know for sure :shrug:

btw, yes - Tiz had the blinks on - but still think he sensed that 7 on his outside.

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So after this big lay-off California racing posts decent fields for about 1 weeks. Today’s cards at Santa Anita and Golden Gate loaded with 6 horse fields. Terrible product. Where are the freakin horses? Kills me to see Oaklawn fill every race. Tampa Bay loaded. Many others. But not California. Must be the bad weather year round. 

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i think the turf racing has been exceptional at S.A. thus far ... the flats have been another story altogether - lotta bombs were popping up in the exotics that first week, and a few juiced up the horizontals - been lackluster since. 

Churchill has been fantastic for playing ... as has TB, hit a couple nice P4s there ✌

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On 6/1/2020 at 1:22 AM, Judge Smails said:

So after this big lay-off California racing posts decent fields for about 1 weeks. Today’s cards at Santa Anita and Golden Gate loaded with 6 horse fields. Terrible product. Where are the freakin horses? Kills me to see Oaklawn fill every race. Tampa Bay loaded. Many others. But not California. Must be the bad weather year round. 

 California has seemed like a real trouble spot for racing the last few years, I hope they can rebound eventually.

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I love horse racing, but man is it a painful and disappointing sport to follow at times.  Just in the last few months, there's - California breakdown epidemic, Maximum Security drug scandal, Charlatan drug test, Nadal early retirement and yesterday Arrogate died at only 7 years old.  I know he didn't really get discussed here because he started racing after the Triple Crown races ended in 2016 , but in my opinion he was the best horse since Spectacular Bid, and I'm not sure that any horse ever had a four race stretch that was better than his (admittedly very short) prime.

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2 minutes ago, zoobird said:

I love horse racing, but man is it a painful and disappointing sport to follow at times.  Just in the last few months, there's - California breakdown epidemic, Maximum Security drug scandal, Charlatan drug test, Nadal early retirement and yesterday Arrogate died at only 7 years old.  I know he didn't really get discussed here because he started racing after the Triple Crown races ended in 2016 , but in my opinion he was the best horse since Spectacular Bid, and I'm not sure that any horse ever had a four race stretch that was better than his (admittedly very short) prime.

Arrogate deserves all the praise he gets, had just heard of his passing last night ... a real champ, took 'em all on during that stretch you mention, and turned 'em all back ... was a pleasure watching him run. 

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S.A. Derby

field of seven, thanks to Honor A.P. deciding to stay put in Cali, lest this would've lost a ton of luster as a mere 6 horse field serving as another Authentic exclamation point. 

Baffert also has Azul Coast up in there, who has run admirably enough in his spots ... my ol' buddy Anneau d'Or also makes an appearance.  

enough early speed from the #3 Shooters Shoot to get Authentic working hard from the 7 hole, right outside of HAP - the latter can dive in and rate off what will hopefully be hot fractions ... i'm calling this one for him, think Shirreffs has him cranked, the San Felipe was his first out in 5 months and he looked fit enough coming in second behind Authentic that day ... it was a baby step, and the works coming in for this have been spot on ... Smiff in the irons for what i expect to be a patient stalk and pounce and win journey. 

Authentic has had little bother thus far, and might very well wire this one with ease ... with all the Charly and Raffa talk lately it seems as if he's been forgotten. 

gimme 6/3,7/3,4,7 :thumbup:

the most expensive horse in the Baffert barn will be making his debut today, as monster work freak Cezanne hits the dirt in a 6.5f, 50k MSW in race #6 (also at S.A., of course).

they are calling this one better looking than Charly and Justy ... so BB got himself another potential wunderkind just in time ... 4/5 ml odds, and the most anticipated first out of the year ... play the ice cold 1/4 exacta in this one for all ya got.  

Edited by otb_lifer
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  • otb_lifer changed the title to *** Official Road to the 2020 Belmont Stakes * * * It's An Honor To Have An Authentic Seven Horse Field For The S.A. Derby/ Baffert's Golden Diaper Maiden Looks To Make A Big Impression
7 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

S.A. Derby

field of seven, thanks to Honor A.P. deciding to stay put in Cali, lest this would've lost a ton of luster as a mere 6 horse field serving as another Authentic exclamation point. 

Baffert also has Azul Coast up in there, who has run admirably enough in his spots ... my ol' buddy Anneau d'Or also makes an appearance.  

enough early speed from the #3 Shooters Shoot to get Authentic working hard from the 7 hole, right outside of HAP - the latter can dive in and rate off what will hopefully be hot fractions ... i'm calling this one for him, think Shirreffs has him cranked, the San Felipe was his first out in 5 months and he looked fit enough coming in second behind Authentic that day ... it was a baby step, and the works coming in for this have been spot on ... Smiff in the irons for what i expect to be a patient stalk and pounce and win journey. 

Authentic has had little bother thus far, and might very well wire this one with ease ... with all the Charly and Raffa talk lately it seems as if he's been forgotten. 

gimme 6/3,7/3,4,7 :thumbup:

the most expensive horse in the Baffert barn will be making his debut today, as monster work freak Cezanne hits the dirt in a 6.5f, 50k MSW in race #6 (also at S.A., of course).

they are calling this one better looking than Charly and Justy ... so BB got himself another potential wunderkind just in time ... 4/5 ml odds, and the most anticipated first out of the year ... play the ice cold 1/4 exacta in this one for all ya got.  

Great writeup.   Think Authentic is just too good.

Looking at the Hollywood Gold Cup, we get to see Improbable disappoint again.   I've got Midcourt taking it over Higher Power.

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On 6/6/2020 at 7:14 AM, otb_lifer said:

S.A. Derby

field of seven, thanks to Honor A.P. deciding to stay put in Cali, lest this would've lost a ton of luster as a mere 6 horse field serving as another Authentic exclamation point. 

Baffert also has Azul Coast up in there, who has run admirably enough in his spots ... my ol' buddy Anneau d'Or also makes an appearance.  

enough early speed from the #3 Shooters Shoot to get Authentic working hard from the 7 hole, right outside of HAP - the latter can dive in and rate off what will hopefully be hot fractions ... i'm calling this one for him, think Shirreffs has him cranked, the San Felipe was his first out in 5 months and he looked fit enough coming in second behind Authentic that day ... it was a baby step, and the works coming in for this have been spot on ... Smiff in the irons for what i expect to be a patient stalk and pounce and win journey

Honor A.P. much the best

 couldn't have gone any better than what i envisioned for this one ... slight hiccup for Authentic out the gate, but he found his spot on the lead pack ... HAP made a beauty move, sweeping 4 wide and charging - that was a textbook Stakes winning finish, and he had more left. 

been touting him for awhile, this was the perfect spot for him to stamp his cred ... remember, this is basically February for him, in terms of prep for the Derby, in terms of a normal year. 

second off the bench since October, and the move forward has been like clockwork.  as i said after the San Felipe, it wouldn't surprise me to see him waving the WC banner over the Bafferts, and that included Charly & Raffa back then. 

by the time September rolls around this may be the one to beat ... he's just now rounding into championship form ... he's gonna get better as they go longer.  

 

Cezanne's First Impression

good looking win, had nothing to prove, except a 3m dollar price tag 😁  1:16.13 for the 6.5f, not too shabby for a leg stretcher ... he's pointed in one direction, gonna be fun watching this cat climb the ladder. 

 

... but the biggest news yesterday was the running of the Inaugural Eye On Corona Virus Futurity ... won by Political Bedlam, of course 

:deadhorse:

Edited by otb_lifer
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  • otb_lifer changed the title to *** Official Road to the 2020 Belmont Stakes * * * New Shirreffs Out West

that was a seriously bad break-out and rush-up for Authentic. as much as i enjoy the rarity of seeing a Slew-chocolate horse with blaze & socks, Honor AP will lose the rubber match

unless Cezanne can do what we saw all day, i didnt see much to be impressed about

if i was more motivated, i'd write a Doodles Weaver/Beedlebum-type racecall for the Corona Futurity:shrug:

Edited by wikkidpissah
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@tracksidejennie

Final Fractions Theory from the @SantaAnitaDerby:

1f      3f

12.9  37.6  Honor A. P.

13.0  38.4  Rushie

13.2  38.4  Authentic

13.4  39.7  Azul Coast

27 of last 30 @KentuckyDerby winners ≤ 13.0 last 1f and/or ≤ 38.0 last 3f in final 9f prep.

 

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DRF's McGee: Maxfield OUT of Belmont

The unbeaten @godolphin colt Maxfield is skipping the 6/20 @BelmontStakes to await the 7/11 Blue Grass  @keenelandracing, per trainer@brenpwalsh - The Sept. 5 #KentuckyDerby is "the main aim," he said. "We think this is the right thing to do."

:unsure:

 

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1 hour ago, Judge Smails said:

So terrible to read about the tragic accident with  horses from Clement’s barn. Horrific. Lost some quality thoroughbreds, including an American Pharaoh offspring. Sad. https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/241628/clement-stable-loses-10-horses-in-trailer-fire

Read that yesterday but didn’t want to post it

awful ☹️

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MAXFIELD DONE :(

Churchill Downs' May 23 Matt Winn Stakes (G3), Maxfield suffered a non-displaced condylar fracture Wednesday morning at Keeneland.

Jimmy Bell, head of Godolphin's U.S. operations, said the Street Sense colt -- unbeaten in his three starts -- will undergo surgery to repair the injury in his right-front leg and miss the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

"He went a maintenance half mile this morning," Bell said of Maxfield's breeze, measured in 49 seconds. "It was as nice as you'd want to see. We were on hand to watch.

"When he turned back to jog home, he was off. We got him back to the barn and took X-rays."

Weeks after a similar injury sent undefeated Nadal into retirement, Bell said there's plenty of hope Maxfield will continue his career on the racetrack once healed from a non-life-threatening ailment.

"This was very clean," Bell said. "It was non-displaced, so it's fortuitous if you want to look at it that way. It looks like a straightforward procedure. We'll always have a discussion, but certainly racing is still in the game plan."

Brendan Walsh trains Maxfield, a Godolphin homebred who also won Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity at age 2 after an eye-catching debut at Churchill Downs, showing a bold rally that has become his signature running style.

An ankle chip also requiring minor surgery left Maxfield out of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. But the Kentucky Derby's postponement to Sept. 5 gave connections renewed hope their colt could factor in the Triple Crown series.

William Hill U.S. listed Maxfield as the Derby's 7-1 fourth choice this week behind only co-favorites Tiz the Law and Honor A. P. and Authentic (6-1).

In recent days, Maxfield's connections had opted to bypass the June 20 Belmont Stakes, taking a more conservative route into the Derby by staying home for Keeneland's July 11 Blue Grass Stakes (G2).

"Sometimes all you're hoping for is not having any bad luck," Bell said, "and we just got a little unlucky here."

 

don't think we see him race again ... tough game, this really blows. 

 

ETA: Wells Bayou & Governour Morris also now OUT. 

Edited by otb_lifer
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  • otb_lifer changed the title to *** Official Road to the 2020 Belmont Stakes * * * MAXFIELD OUT

today's Gulfstream Race #9 is not your ordinary 1m, AOC 55k affair ... oh, no - far from it. 

Derby Trail darlings Ete Injun and ol' buddy Sole Volante are bookending (respectively) the seven horse field ... FD blazer Shivaree (2nd to Tiz) also on board, firing out the 4 hole. 

3 months since SV been out, and 2+ for the Injun & Shiv. 

none too shabby for a  no d1ck midweek card ... post time 4:15.

PS - now down to a 6 horse field as the #3 horse scratched. 

 

 

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54 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

today's Gulfstream Race #9 is not your ordinary 1m, AOC 55k affair ... oh, no - far from it. 

Derby Trail darlings Ete Injun and ol' buddy Sole Volante are bookending (respectively) the seven horse field ... FD blazer Shivaree (2nd to Tiz) also on board, firing out the 4 hole. 

3 months since SV been out, and 2+ for the Injun & Shiv. 

none too shabby for a  no d1ck midweek card ... post time 4:15.

PS - now down to a 6 horse field as the #3 horse scratched. 

 

 

That's quite the AOC.   Claiming price of $100k.    Injun has made $400k in 6 races.

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Injun got absolutely cooked by Shiv, allowing SV and Jesus' Team to rally up for 1st & 2nd - Shiv held on for 3rd. 

the Injun just looked a bit off in post parade, as mentioned above ... Sole Volante was huge on his charge ... he can certainly run 'em down. 

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1 hour ago, JShare87 said:

@otb_lifer, going to need that printable Belmont PP and race analysis ASAP. TIA, you da man!

Here are the PP's.

I'll leave it to otb_lifer to do an analysis, but if you didn't get Tiz at something more than even money on a futures bet, you better be good at exotics.   

Edited by -fish-
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9 minutes ago, Walking Boot said:

Um.... anyone wanna piece of Authentic? Looks like shares are coming out soon.

 

Bummer.  Can't buy shares in Alabama, Nebraska, Florida, and Washington.  $206 per share seems like an ok price for 1/12,500 of 10% of a horse that got torched by Honor AP.

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So after my....oh 10 minutes of research I'll make my picks.  Track ain't open and I don't want to get a horse app and go total degen so just for fun today.

$5 ATB on #10

$1 Exacta Box 10, 3, 8, 4

$1 Trifecta Box 10, 3, 8, 4

$51 investment.  Good luck all!

:deadhorse:

-QG

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