2020 Rebel Stakes
this would be a rather nondescript affair without the star power that is Nadal/Baffert ... there are some very capable entrants otherwise, and they are familiar with this track. our big boy is stretching out for the first time, shipping, and will be sans blinks ... so, if one is of the "bet against a favorite trying something new", well, Nadal is 3 deep in that axiom.
1) Nadal 5/2 ml
sprint debut in mid January, hung a 94 up in that race, then wheeled back some 3 weeks later to take down the 7f San Vicente (96 fig). has been working ridiculously well, and is clearly the story in this one. Baffert has had great success down here, winning 6 of the previous 11 (but none of the last 3) ... BB is also hitting at a 31% clip this year with his shippers. this beast is outta Blame, with the Pulpit line underneath ... he should relish the added distances he has coming up. 5/2 is very tepid for such a ballyhooed horse, but, as i stated up top, he does have a few questions to answer today. the ml is an absolute GIFT if you believe in him, and i reallyreallyreally do ... he has the best speed figs up in here (along w/Basin, Silver Prospector), and can control the pace from his rail slot. i expect nothing short of a scintillating victory. YES.
2) Excession 30/1
first of the 3 Asmussen entrants, and easily the weakest. was 7th and 8th his last 2 out (Lecomte/Risen Star). seasoned animal, this will be his 9th career start ... consistent mid 80s grinder, very outclassed here today. one plus for him was a 3rd place finish behind Maxfield (under 2 lengths) back in September.
3) Basin 3/1
Asmussen #2, and damn near co- favorite. matches Nadal's top speed effort, and was runaway winner (6+ lengths!) his last out (G1 Hopeful) ... problem is, that was SIX months ago. so, we got a yuuuuuge layoff, and first stab at a route. tall orders here, best case scenario would be similar to Honor A.P. in last week's San Felipe - an honest effort behind a Baffert Bullet, but too much to overcome, all things considered. will be interesting to see if they gun him out that 3 hole to pinch Nadal in somewhat, seeing as how the 2 horse has no answer for Nadal's burst. lotta love being tossed his way, and if big boy falters ... ? really?
4) Silver Prospector 7/2
Asmussen #3 ... howzabout that draw, all 3 flanking Baffert? hmmm ...couldn't have asked for better, a lil' home cooking, perhaps. THIS is a very intriguing horse, and that price is definitely right. has been banging around this track since January, where he came in as fave in the Smarty Jones, which was well deserved after his taking down of the Kentucky Jockey Cup in November, where he beat current Derby fave Tiz the Law by 2 lengths. the Smarty was a muddy affair, and Santana stayed too far off a soft pace ... was a very well beaten 4th by 7 lengths. followed that up some 3 weeks later with huge win (his 96 fig) in the Southwest - stayed closer (never further back than 3rd by 2 lengths) to the quick fractions set by Wells Bayou, and closed with authority to take it by a full length. started his career on turf, then took his first dirt outing easily at Keeneland ... this will be his 5th dirt stakes in a row, he is battle tested with the top class, and seasoned as #### - his works have not exactly been stellar, but this cat seems to always be honest in the afternoons. Santana/Asmussen are crushing it down there atm, and this is the biggest threat to Nadal's coronation, imo. forecast is looking kinda wet for later on, but don't expect the same bull#### we saw in the Smarty ... Asmussen knows better. also note his KJC win was over a sloppy surface. if we get a hot pace today, he'll be on Nadal's ### - LOVE/LIVE.
5) No Parole 8/1
has been demoloshing LA. breds down in the Bayou state ... won his first 2 races at the Fairgrounds by 14 and 13 lengths (95 figs in both 6f) ... shipped to Delta for a stretch out (1m) in the Premier Prince, and was a comfy 7 length winner in that one. he is working very well, last was a :47.3 4f on 3/9. this is a big step up in class, his top speed fits here, but he dropped to a 90 when he tried his first route. was a needed foundation springboard, no doubt ... Amoss and Talamo are hot in these conditions, but, again - these are some upper class horses to tangle with today - he has the oooomph to hustle outta there and force the pace ... whether he can hang or not is the big question - Nadal can cook him. not a horrible price for the more adventurous chaps out there - i wouldn't be shocked if he took this down, but it would be surprising.
6) Three Technique 7/2
ya want the "wiseguy" horse? well, here he is! finished 2nd in that sloppy Smarty, closing fast on winner Gold Street ... again, soft pace assisted that victory, but 3Tech made a very sweet late move down the center, looked to be fresh and ready to go a few more furlongs ... his top speed fig fits with these, and he fired the top 2020 Oaklawn 4f workout with a dazzling :46! some 2 weeks ago ... he's ready for this asking - 3 tries to break the maiden (up at the Spa), but was beaten by Basin on that same track. Englehart is hitting at 32% when wheeling back a beaten favorite - but we have a 50 day layoff, and Englehart's paltry 7% mark in graded stakes to toss some cold water on this hotshot. if this thing melts, even in the slop, this cat is primed to benefit. live.
7) Coach Bahe 30/1
ya wanna dream? KING GUILLERMO redux??? ok - broke his maiden last out at the FG, a 1m muddy affair which bagged gim a respectable 90 fig. first time lasix today ... GO AHEAD! I DARE YA!
American Theorem 6/1
son of American Pharoah, so we got that going for him - hell, he even came in 2nd in his pops G1 namesake stakes race out at S.A., going the same distance they will try today, finishing ahead of one time darling, and eventual Juvey winner, Storm the Court. but, yeah ... that was six months ago. working great coming in, but top speed is a cut below the best here ... gonna need a huge step forward to make a ruckus here today.
it's Nadal's day to stamp his dominance cred ... sloppy track gives slight pause ( though Blame's sire #s in slop are very good), as we have wet chops up in this mutha - will Baffert send him? will the Asmussen's pinch? can No Parole get over first?
pretty decent field, certainly gonna test the favorite.
gimme 1/4/6 as of now, will revisit when we see conditions later on, but that rail, coupled with his sire Blame flashing slop chops, has me sticking bigly on the chalk.
59.60) that i mentioned earlier 
it's ridiculous how smoove he looks ... so much fun to watch. and so great for a game under fire, once again. 
