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Draftkings Week 7 (1 Viewer)

KarmaPolice

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Let's fire this thread up.  

I liked a couple ideas that it gave me last week, so I did the $/opportunities list again this week to see what RBs stuck out as good values for their volume.  Here were the top 6 guys on the main slate (in order):

Hyde

K.Johnson

Fournette

Carson

Jacobs

Freeman

The 4 I highlighted are on teams that have a Vegas projection in the top 1/2 for the slate.  I did this for the #s on the last 3 games as usual.  My first thought was to go Cook/Carson and one of Fournette/DJ, but this has me thinking if I should be looking at one of those cheap RBs as my RB3.  

 
For QB, DK has for sure been scrunching up the QB salaries, and it's hard to get away from that group in the mid 6K range of: Ryan, Allen, Wilson, Murray, Jackson, Watson.  

IF you need to save, one name that kept coming up was Brissett at 5.6K.   Looks like top ten as far as attempts in the RZ/10yd line, has some rushing floor, at home in a potential shootout.  Besides a tough game on the road in KC last week, the lowest of the 3 games before that was 3.7X salary.  Not saying I will go there, but it was a cheap option.  Probably safe for cash, but not sure the upside is there for gpps.  

 
TE is the same ol' same ol' names.   Kittle and Engram would be nice, but not sure I will get up there.  Might be ending up in the Andrews/Waller/Henry tier.  Maybe somebody like Fells if I really need to punt the position?  

Going to make a WR list and try to build a lineup later tonight or tomorrow.  

 
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KarmaPolice said:
Let's fire this thread up.  

I liked a couple ideas that it gave me last week, so I did the $/opportunities list again this week to see what RBs stuck out as good values for their volume.  Here were the top 6 guys on the main slate (in order):

Hyde

K.Johnson

Fournette

Carson

Jacobs

Freeman

The 4 I highlighted are on teams that have a Vegas projection in the top 1/2 for the slate.  I did this for the #s on the last 3 games as usual.  My first thought was to go Cook/Carson and one of Fournette/DJ, but this has me thinking if I should be looking at one of those cheap RBs as my RB3.  
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Which Freeman is that? I like Royce for gpp but probably not good for cash.

 
I don't really do much analysis.  I go off my base knowledge of what is going on.  sometimes I hit, sometimes I don't.  I play mostly for fun with the chance at one day getting a big payout.  I don't post too many lineups because I don't want anyone following any bad advice of mine.  So, with that disclaimer, here is my first run at GPP this week.

Goff   6200    (bounce back against a horrible defense on a fast track)

Fournette    7000    (been one of the top opportunity guys all year.  Bengals can't tackle.  Easy choice)

Singletary    5400     (Will obviously be keeping an eye, but coming off injury, I am thinking low ownership.  He's a little pricey, but I think he can't find value)

Cooks     5400    (Part of the stack)

Kupp    7400     (bounceback part of the stack)

K Johnson    3900     (Dart throw?  Gotta save money somewhere and its the Giants D.  Johnson has been getting targets)

Engram    6500     (Again, keeping an eye on this situation, but it a TE against Arizona)

Kittle    6700    (Going double TE is a crap play this year, which means if nothing else, my lineup should be unique.  Guy is just good)

Dolphins     1500    (I don't usually play a D against one of my O players, but this is solely based on Josh Allen's ability to throw a pic-6 or two)

:)

 
Caesar said:
I don't really do much analysis.  I go off my base knowledge of what is going on.  sometimes I hit, sometimes I don't.  I play mostly for fun with the chance at one day getting a big payout.  I don't post too many lineups because I don't want anyone following any bad advice of mine.  So, with that disclaimer, here is my first run at GPP this week.

Goff   6200    (bounce back against a horrible defense on a fast track)

Fournette    7000    (been one of the top opportunity guys all year.  Bengals can't tackle.  Easy choice)

Singletary    5400     (Will obviously be keeping an eye, but coming off injury, I am thinking low ownership.  He's a little pricey, but I think he can't find value)

Cooks     5400    (Part of the stack)

Kupp    7400     (bounceback part of the stack)

K Johnson    3900     (Dart throw?  Gotta save money somewhere and its the Giants D.  Johnson has been getting targets)

Engram    6500     (Again, keeping an eye on this situation, but it a TE against Arizona)

Kittle    6700    (Going double TE is a crap play this year, which means if nothing else, my lineup should be unique.  Guy is just good)

Dolphins     1500    (I don't usually play a D against one of my O players, but this is solely based on Josh Allen's ability to throw a pic-6 or two)

:)
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Couple comments - one is that usually if I like a team/game enough to stack 3+ guys,  I look at a player from the other team for a comback player.   If you are stacking like this, you are saying that you think it's either a shootout or that Atl scored a ton and Goff has to start slinging it.     I also really dislike 2 TE unless it's a small afternoon slate.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
Couple comments - one is that usually if I like a team/game enough to stack 3+ guys,  I look at a player from the other team for a comback player.   If you are stacking like this, you are saying that you think it's either a shootout or that Atl scored a ton and Goff has to start slinging it.     I also really dislike 2 TE unless it's a small afternoon slate.  
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I'm with you on both points.  I did not mention that this is for a single entry, so I tend to change up my normal "guidelines" to be different.  Like I said, sometimes it works, sometimes not.

I can definitely see swapping out Kittle for Ridley (assuming he is priced about the same)  That would cover both your points.

 
Still working on cash, but he is something that I really liked for a gpp.   Obviously ownership and injuries need to be looked at.  

K.Murray - DJohnson/J.Williams - Hilton/Fuller/Kirk/M.Williams - Engram - Indy

I like this a lot if Kirk plays, and like the game and Murray a bit less if he doesn't (and might pivot to a different stack).  Same with Engram.  Also like having Fuller/Hilton going back and forth in that game.  One of the pods was talking up how many more snaps J.Williams has been getting the last time he and Jones have played together, so I am going to look into that a bit more too.  M.Williams seems to be getting a ton of looks the last couple weeks, and is a pivot off a chalky Henry.  :shrug:

 
My first thought's on building a cash lineup

I started with RB's, looked at opportunity and matchup.  Came up with DJ, Dalvin, Mack.  Basically was looking for catches.  Dalvin not so much in the catch department but he's been soooo good this year and relatively steady with a few catches, and no McCaffrey he's the most automatic every week.  Same with Mack and he's underpriced in a likely shootout, after a bye, finally healthy seems to line up nicely for him. Other guys I thought about Fournette and Carson.  There were a few others but they're more GPP plays I think.  Singletary, T. Coleman, Jacobs.  

WR wise I was not a fan sifting through the names as I think the value plays are mostly untrustworthy guys.  With paying up for RB it left me basically under 6k for each WR.  I saw John Brown, Beasley, Boyd, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, Kirk (if healthy), Auden Tate if you risk it a bit, KeeSean Johnson.  All of which leave me a bit uncomfortable so I was trying to find the best of the worst options out of that.  Went with Boyd, Robinson, Beasley.

Then I moved on to find a QB.  Tightly priced so you can really go anywhere.  Goff strikes me as the best cheaper option, although it's road Goff (even though he hasn't been bad this year on the road mostly).  Thought about Brissett or Daniel Jones as well but I'm not so sure about that.  Would much prefer to fiddle more here and find my way up to Lamar.  

Found a cheap defense that's probably a bit risky in Cincinnatti.  

That told me what I could do with TE or how much I could pay, Hunter Henry is the choice with this build.  

 
Zyphros said:
My first thought's on building a cash lineup

I started with RB's, looked at opportunity and matchup.  Came up with DJ, Dalvin, Mack.  Basically was looking for catches.  Dalvin not so much in the catch department but he's been soooo good this year and relatively steady with a few catches, and no McCaffrey he's the most automatic every week.  Same with Mack and he's underpriced in a likely shootout, after a bye, finally healthy seems to line up nicely for him. Other guys I thought about Fournette and Carson.  There were a few others but they're more GPP plays I think.  Singletary, T. Coleman, Jacobs.  

WR wise I was not a fan sifting through the names as I think the value plays are mostly untrustworthy guys.  With paying up for RB it left me basically under 6k for each WR.  I saw John Brown, Beasley, Boyd, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, Kirk (if healthy), Auden Tate if you risk it a bit, KeeSean Johnson.  All of which leave me a bit uncomfortable so I was trying to find the best of the worst options out of that.  Went with Boyd, Robinson, Beasley.

Then I moved on to find a QB.  Tightly priced so you can really go anywhere.  Goff strikes me as the best cheaper option, although it's road Goff (even though he hasn't been bad this year on the road mostly).  Thought about Brissett or Daniel Jones as well but I'm not so sure about that.  Would much prefer to fiddle more here and find my way up to Lamar.  

Found a cheap defense that's probably a bit risky in Cincinnatti.  

That told me what I could do with TE or how much I could pay, Hunter Henry is the choice with this build.  
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One of the pods I was listening to was considering Coleman for cash.  Just wonder a little about the volume, myself.   I feel like with his heavy RZ use someone like K.Johnson is worth a look, but dont know.  

About the only thing I am certain I am getting this week is sub 6k Hilton in cash.  

 
Qb. Andy Dalton. Usually has one good game per year. Sooo.

Rb. Todd Gurleys volume play

Rb   Marlon Mack volume play

Wr.  Tyler Boyd. Have to see if Green plays but if not he's in.

Wr.  Auden Tate getting the targets just hoping for more production.

Wr.  DeAndre Hopkins. He's bound to have a good game sooner or later right?  In every lineup

Te.  Evan Engram. He's gonna be in most people's lineups.  I had Hooper in all lineups last week against the Cards switched him out the last second.  Because I listened to some dumb podcast.  Cost me money so never again.  Lesson learned go with ur gut.  In every lineup for me.

Flex.  Gerald Everett. Just a shot in the dark open to suggestions

D.  49ners  should have a good weekend against the Redskins.

 
I was looking at pts allowed/game to the different positions over the last 4 weeks.  Interesting list for WRs going up against Ds allowing the most points to WRs on the main slate:

Rams, Indy, Houst, Az, Giants, Atl  was the list.  :lol:   Maybe we might want to look at these 3 games for WRs and stacks?   Also going against teams allowing the most points to TEs: Giants, Houst, Atl, Rams  

 
I am surprised at how much I liked for gpps this week after looking at stuff.  Not sure how to narrow it down.  

Qb:   Brissett I think will be low owned, and I am wondering about Cousins if they are maybe going to throw a little more?

RB:  T.Coleman/Brieda, J.Williams.      I am still digging into the J.Williams/Jones thing, but it does look like J.Will gets more touches in the games that they both play.  Super cheap and look at the GB injury report - I think all of their WRs are hurt.   Wash is giving up a ton of points to RBs and SF loves to run.   I think all 3 of these guys will be under 5% owned, which might help since the WRs spots are the chalky games.  

WR:  I think a lot of the plays I like will be higher owned.  Ones I wrote down that I like for maybe low ownership were Fuller (not sure about % here), A.Tate, A.Lazard, and Mike Williams.   Maybe some of the secondary plays in the Minn/Det game like M.Jones or Diggs?    

TE:  As I posted above, Houst and Rams have good matchups, and I think guys like Fells and Everett are seeing good volume but are probably going to be lower owned as people smash in the WRs from those games.   In the last 4 weeks, Indy is giving up the exact same DK pts/game as Az is.... 

DT:  When I looked at the adjusted sack rates the top 8 DTs listed were:  Chargers, Giants, SF, NO, Jax, Tenn, Indy, Chic  I am sure when I look at ownership %s later, one or two of those teams will be lower owned.  I do like Indy and NYG as cheap punts though.  

I think so far my favorite gpps plays are:  J.Williams and/or Lazard (Lazard depending on the GB injuries), Mike Williams, and Fells.  I wish Brissett had more options to stack him with.  I like him as a pivot to Watson, but only like Hilton with him. 

 
The more I look at the slate, the more I don't think "jam the RB's in" is the way to play cash this week.  Fournette is cheap enough as is Mack, Gurley (if you're feeling frisky), Henry, Coleman that you can still afford a decent WR core.  This is the epitome week of pay where you want to pay.  You can go Kupp, Hilton and a cheap guy punt TE and get good Rb's still if you wanted.  

I'm not sure which way I'm going yet.  Weird week to see the pricing points and how to get the values into a cash lineup.  It really isn't possible.  

Value WR plays that seem viable include:  Hilton, Golladay, Cooks, Robinson, Boyd, Beasley, Pascal, Keesean.  Would not be comfortable going bottom 3 of that list and paying up for RB elsewhere.  So you have to sacrifice a RB spot basically or not pay for Engram.  That's ok as you can pivot to Hunter Henry save some and go 2 of those top 3 WR's if you want as long as you go Coleman instead of top tier RB.  I don't really know.  Just trying to think out loud a bit.  

I think right now the more appealing lineup consists of 2 stud RB's (Fournette and DJ maybe) and 1 cheaper option (Coleman), along with 2 good WR options (Hilton and Robinson) and 1 cheapy (Beasley).  

 
Zyphros said:
The more I look at the slate, the more I don't think "jam the RB's in" is the way to play cash this week.  Fournette is cheap enough as is Mack, Gurley (if you're feeling frisky), Henry, Coleman that you can still afford a decent WR core.  This is the epitome week of pay where you want to pay.  You can go Kupp, Hilton and a cheap guy punt TE and get good Rb's still if you wanted.  

I'm not sure which way I'm going yet.  Weird week to see the pricing points and how to get the values into a cash lineup.  It really isn't possible.  

Value WR plays that seem viable include:  Hilton, Golladay, Cooks, Robinson, Boyd, Beasley, Pascal, Keesean.  Would not be comfortable going bottom 3 of that list and paying up for RB elsewhere.  So you have to sacrifice a RB spot basically or not pay for Engram.  That's ok as you can pivot to Hunter Henry save some and go 2 of those top 3 WR's if you want as long as you go Coleman instead of top tier RB.  I don't really know.  Just trying to think out loud a bit.  

I think right now the more appealing lineup consists of 2 stud RB's (Fournette and DJ maybe) and 1 cheaper option (Coleman), along with 2 good WR options (Hilton and Robinson) and 1 cheapy (Beasley).  
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I get what you are saying and I don't disagree, the trouble I have is I don't like a ton in the top tier of WRs to pay up for either.  Julio and Hopkins are 2nd on their teams for target share.   I do worry a tad about road Goff and therefore Kupp, but I guess he's the safest at the top - but Woods is 1500 cheaper.   Seems like I keep landing in that Hilton/ARob/Chark/Golladay/Woods tier.    So yeah, I guess I agree with the 2nd bolded.   Interesting week for sure.  

 
Almost wish I didn't try it because it looks fun, but not sure if it's optimal in cash.   I was thinking about the GB injuries and the 3K Lazard.  IF I use him in a LU, I was able to also get in:

Ryan, Barkley, Fournette, Cook or DJ, Hilton, Henry.   Also made one punting down farther at TE to Fells and got in A.Robinson as well.  :oldunsure:

 
KarmaPolice said:
Almost wish I didn't try it because it looks fun, but not sure if it's optimal in cash.   I was thinking about the GB injuries and the 3K Lazard.  IF I use him in a LU, I was able to also get in:

Ryan, Barkley, Fournette, Cook or DJ, Hilton, Henry.   Also made one punting down farther at TE to Fells and got in A.Robinson as well.  :oldunsure:
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Was watching NFL network this morning, turns out they're saying sit Allen Robinson.  Thought that was strange, just a note.  

 
Zyphros said:
Was watching NFL network this morning, turns out they're saying sit Allen Robinson.  Thought that was strange, just a note.  
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I think Latimore was crap to start the year, but has been good the last few weeks.  I think the assumption is he will be on ARob.  After I posted that I was thinking that Woods at a similar price might make more sense so I get a piece of that game/offense.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
I think Latimore was crap to start the year, but has been good the last few weeks.  I think the assumption is he will be on ARob.  After I posted that I was thinking that Woods at a similar price might make more sense so I get a piece of that game/offense.  
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I looked into a bit and found this snipped in Matthew Berry's love/hate article, he's on the hate list btw.  Here's the link

"Allen Robinson II, Bears (vs. Saints): The Saints lead the NFL in pressure percentage, and I mention this fun fact because you know who struggles against pressure? Young Mitchell Trubisky. With a shadow from Marshon Lattimore in a game that is expected to be one of the lowest-scoring of Week 7, it's hard to get excited about A-Rob against the Saints' top-10 pass defense the past four weeks."

 
I have no idea how I managed not to cash last week despite being bang-on with the ATL-AZ shootout. I didn't even win my o60.5 at +280 because like an idiot I put it into a parlay.  :wall:

My operating principle this week is fading ATL-LAR in favor of BAL-SEA. Both defenses are living off their reputation much more than actual performance (FO has them ranked 22nd and 18th respectively). I'll have to pay up at QB to make it work, but as Karma mentioned, QB salaries have gotten so compressed on DK that I'm not costing myself much.

Fading Fournette too, not because I don't love the spot this week, but he'll be the single most owned GPP player IMO.

L. Jackson

Mack, Jacobs - they bottled Kerryon up but GB in general has been pretty soft v. the run. At $5k my only fear is he'll be pretty chalk.

Kupp, Fitz, Metcalf - I may flip from Lamar to Russ in a lineup or two and this lets me do it without major surgery.

Andrews - obvious stack is obvious

Engram - ugh, a 2nd TE, but NYG-AZ has some shootout potential as well

Lions - Cousins shot his wad against the Eagles, he oughta come back down to Earth

 
Good grief - Just looked at ownership stuff.  If that is remotely close to correct, I think a gpp tactic to deploy is to either avoid the Rams/Atl game, or game stack another spot and include a couple pieces of that one.  When I see 2 of the top 3 QBs, an RB in the top 5, 4 of the top 6 WRs and the top TE in that game, that is nutso.  I am sure it's happened, I just can't remember seeing that much ownership jammed into one game like that.  I assume that a lot has to do with the price of guys like Freeman, Woods, Cooks, and Hooper  Easy to jam them all in.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
Good grief - Just looked at ownership stuff.  If that is remotely close to correct, I think a gpp tactic to deploy is to either avoid the Rams/Atl game, or game stack another spot and include a couple pieces of that one.  When I see 2 of the top 3 QBs, an RB in the top 5, 4 of the top 6 WRs and the top TE in that game, that is nutso.  I am sure it's happened, I just can't remember seeing that much ownership jammed into one game like that.  I assume that a lot has to do with the price of guys like Freeman, Woods, Cooks, and Hooper  Easy to jam them all in.  
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I wonder what the real downside of fading the whole game would be.  If it turns out to just be a mundane 24-21 affair, you are playing from ahead right away.

I just don't know what the chances are that happens.  There is a reason it is the chalk this week.

I may do it.  I'm used to losing.  The potential upside might be worth the risk.  And I agree with Mr. Irrelevant.  The Bal-Sea game looks like a great target, but I disagree with fading Fournette completely.  $ for $, a good chance he ends up best value on the slate.  (ETA:  At RB)

 
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Caesar said:
I wonder what the real downside of fading the whole game would be.  If it turns out to just be a mundane 24-21 affair, you are playing from ahead right away.

I just don't know what the chances are that happens.  There is a reason it is the chalk this week.

I may do it.  I'm used to losing.  The potential upside might be worth the risk.  And I agree with Mr. Irrelevant.  The Bal-Sea game looks like a great target, but I disagree with fading Fournette completely.  $ for $, a good chance he ends up best value on the slate.
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As always there is different ways of attacking it, but I was just surprised that basically everybody in that game is projected to be that highly owned.  What - 20-30% of teams will be stacks of that game?  Fading is an option, but not sure I would advocate too hard for that - I am sure I will try one like that.  What I was thinking after I wrote that>:

1.  Lower owned game stack + pieces of the Rams/Atl game.   So something like Watson-Fuller-Hilton + Hooper/Woods.  Could even jam more from that Atl/Rams game . 

2.  Stack the game with "different combos"  Ryan/Ridley/Sanu + Kupp/Everett?   Something like that.  

3.  Take the the chalk stack, but get really different at another position.  Kupp/Woods/Kupp + Julio/Hooper but put in a <5% RB or TE if you see one you like. 

Long story short, it looks like the outcome of that game might determine a lot of the slate.   

 
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KarmaPolice said:
As always there is different ways of attacking it, but I was just surprised that basically everybody in that game is projected to be that highly owned.  What - 20-30% of teams will be stacks of that game?  Fading is an option, but not sure I would advocate too hard for that - I am sure I will try one like that.  What I was thinking after I wrote that>:

1.  Lower owned game stack + pieces of the Rams/Atl game.   So something like Watson-Fuller-Hilton + Hooper/Woods.  Could even jam more from that Atl/Rams game . 
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So, basically, you are just thinking about fading the QB position from that game.  Which makes sense because if they are looking at 20-30% ownership, that's going mean almost half of the players on the slate will have one of those two QBs.  If Jackson or Watson or Wilson goes off and puts up bigger numbers, then you are playing with the advantage from the QB spot.  The problem is, those guys are all more expensive than Ryan or Goff, so you could be playing from a disadvantage elsewhere.

I think to fade that game, you really need to find that diamond in the rough that could end up in a shootout and sprinkle in the Rams/Falcons.   And I am talking GPP, to be clear.  

Maybe its the place to go with Jones/Engram or Tate and bring back with Fitz.... or a Dalton/Boyd Stack to bring back with Fournette or Chark.  Both of these games I can see going into higher scoring territory.  

I don't know.  Fading a good QB value to pay for a more expensive QB seems like you are adding more risk.  I know its not a ton of money but $500 is the difference between having Devo Freeman or TY Hilton in the flex spot.  

Whaddya think?

 
KarmaPolice said:
As always there is different ways of attacking it, but I was just surprised that basically everybody in that game is projected to be that highly owned.  What - 20-30% of teams will be stacks of that game?  Fading is an option, but not sure I would advocate too hard for that - I am sure I will try one like that.  What I was thinking after I wrote that>:

1.  Lower owned game stack + pieces of the Rams/Atl game.   So something like Watson-Fuller-Hilton + Hooper/Woods.  Could even jam more from that Atl/Rams game . 

2.  Stack the game with "different combos"  Ryan/Ridley/Sanu + Kupp/Everett?   Something like that.  

3.  Take the the chalk stack, but get really different at another position.  Kupp/Woods/Kupp + Julio/Hooper but put in a <5% RB or TE if you see one you like. 

Long story short, it looks like the outcome of that game might determine a lot of the slate.   
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I have this in a $1 SE gpp

Goff, Fournette,Coleman,Ridley,Woods,Davis,Hooper, Lockett,Jags

A mix of chalk and lower owned guys in Coleman and Davis who can put up yards and have 2+ TD potential.

 
Caesar said:
So, basically, you are just thinking about fading the QB position from that game.  Which makes sense because if they are looking at 20-30% ownership, that's going mean almost half of the players on the slate will have one of those two QBs.  If Jackson or Watson or Wilson goes off and puts up bigger numbers, then you are playing with the advantage from the QB spot.  The problem is, those guys are all more expensive than Ryan or Goff, so you could be playing from a disadvantage elsewhere.

I think to fade that game, you really need to find that diamond in the rough that could end up in a shootout and sprinkle in the Rams/Falcons.   And I am talking GPP, to be clear.  

Maybe its the place to go with Jones/Engram or Tate and bring back with Fitz.... or a Dalton/Boyd Stack to bring back with Fournette or Chark.  Both of these games I can see going into higher scoring territory.  

I don't know.  Fading a good QB value to pay for a more expensive QB seems like you are adding more risk.  I know its not a ton of money but $500 is the difference between having Devo Freeman or TY Hilton in the flex spot.  

Whaddya think?
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I am going to build a few LUs to see what I like during lunch.  Its just that I usually try to find low owned guys at WR, and there is not that option in that game, so it was a gut reaction on being a tad surprised about just how high everybody was projected to be at.  That is compounded with guys I thought would pretty low owned at RB like Mixon not projected to be that way, so I that takes out doing something I had written down like Rams/Falcon game stack with chalk + Mixon.   There is also not a <3% DT I love either, so I am struggling finding those couple under 5% players that I like this week.   I am not doing too many gpps this week, but what I am leaning towards right now is either stacking that game using Ridley and Everett for lower owned plays in a chalk game, or find another low owned game stack (Houst/Indy, Minny/Det?) and put in 2-3 guys from the Rams/Atl game with it.  

 
I think the ATL WR choice comes down to one thing. Does Ramsey play? I could only imagine that if he does in fact play, the only coaching he got was "shadow Julio all game". 

Now, Julio is a monster who can go off in any game, we all know that. But if that is the rams plan, I'll have more  exposure to Ridley, Hooper and a little Sanu. If Ramsey doesn't play this game, I think Julio puts on a clinic and goes absolutely bonkers against that sieve of a secondary. 

 
jerseys finest said:
I think the ATL WR choice comes down to one thing. Does Ramsey play? I could only imagine that if he does in fact play, the only coaching he got was "shadow Julio all game". 

Now, Julio is a monster who can go off in any game, we all know that. But if that is the rams plan, I'll have more  exposure to Ridley, Hooper and a little Sanu. If Ramsey doesn't play this game, I think Julio puts on a clinic and goes absolutely bonkers against that sieve of a secondary. 
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My problem with Julio is for whatever reason his target share keeps trending down.  He is at 21% for the season (which isn't amazing for that price - OBJ/Hopkins/M.Thomas/Kupp all have 27%+), but the last 3 weeks it's only 17% and Ridley has almost the exact same stats as far as target share, air market share, and Ridley's aDot is better.  Even if Ramsey is not playing, I THINK I am more inclined to try Ridley at 2K cheaper and 1/2 the ownership.  

Atlanta seems very content to spread the ball around this year  

 
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2 I threw together on break with ideas from Rams/Atl, but I think with some low % pivots:>

Watson - Fournette/J.Williams - Fuller/Hilton/Woods/Ridley - Hooper - Giants

Looking like J.Williams and Fuller might be going under the radar.   Still not sure how much I like that Houst/Indy game.  

Goff - Fournette/T.Coleman - Kupp/Ridley/Chark/Golladay - Everett - Chicago

Rams/Atl game stack with lower owned Everett in there, and really like the gpp upside of Chark and Golladay.  Could do Hilton as well.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
My problem with Julio is for whatever reason his target share keeps trending down.  He is at 21% for the season (which isn't amazing for that price - OBJ/Hopkins/M.Thomas/Kupp all have 27%+), but the last 3 weeks it's only 17% and Ridley has almost the exact same stats as far as target share, air market share, and Ridley's aDot is better.  Even if Ramsey is not playing, I THINK I am more inclined to try Ridley at 2K cheaper and 1/2 the ownership.  

Atlanta seems very content to spread the ball around this year  
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I’m just saying, Julio is due a “big game” this far into the season. Ramsey can slow that this game if his job is to just shadow Julio. (Who has been seeing plenty of double+ coverage all year, leading ATL to try and spread it around more) If not, their secondary is Just as bad, if not worse than the eagles. I’m not fading the others in ATL, I’d just temper my expectations in this scenario. 

 
Looks like Ramsey is going to play. Obviously we don’t know the game plan, but I still assume it’s “shadow Julio”. Bumping exposure to hooper in all game types and Ridley in gpps. Ridleys low floor still worries me in cash. Ramsey still hasn’t played in over a month. Julio is still Julio.
 

I honestly think freeman may be the best falcon to own. Heavily involved the last few weeks. No threat at backup. I dunno if I have the balls to put him in cash (I’d rather go Coleman at this price point) but I’ll have him mixed into some gpps for sure 

 
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In gpp, I'm looking at Stafford this week. He's my kind of contrarian pick. His ownership should be next to zero and his history against the Vikings is pedestrian at best. The Vikes have sacked him more times than any other Lions opponent and held the Lions to 18 combined pts last year. There's really no reason to expect a big game out of him, but it's certainly more than possible that it could happen. On DK he offers the 6th highest QB FPPG on the main slate, but is only 18th in salary. He'll definitely be in a few lineups for me.

 
TwinTurbo said:
In gpp, I'm looking at Stafford this week. He's my kind of contrarian pick. His ownership should be next to zero and his history against the Vikings is pedestrian at best. The Vikes have sacked him more times than any other Lions opponent and held the Lions to 18 combined pts last year. There's really no reason to expect a big game out of him, but it's certainly more than possible that it could happen. On DK he offers the 6th highest QB FPPG on the main slate, but is only 18th in salary. He'll definitely be in a few lineups for me.
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Good luck- I see this going the same as the last couple Lions games (but hopefully with a win for my lions.) Something like 20-23, mostly defensive game. I like cook here, and Kyle Rudolph- is have to look but it seems he’s caught a td vs Detroit like each of the last few times we’ve played them. The defense seems better at defending tes than in the past though. Ugh Ed Dickson last year vs Seattle....

 
KarmaPolice said:
Still surprised to see so many Josh Allen cash lineups posted.  Interesting week for sure.  
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My guess is that people are relying on that floor he presents with the rushing ability, but I'm not sure I see that for this week.  I'm staying away.

 
Snorkelson said:
I’ve thought the same thing especially with Ryan and Goff both cheaper, among other options. I may have to see where I can improve if I drop down 
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I get that approach, as I usually gravitate to L.Jackson every week.  I guess my hesitation with Allen is of the options at the top he is the least likely to have a back and forth game, and is coming off a wicked hit.  Just don't know how much Buffalo would really want him running around this week either.  

 
Still working on cash, but when I was looking at stuff trying to decide about RBs for cash, a couple things kept sticking out for gpp ideas.  There are a couple teams that kept coming up:

Buff, Oak, SF.  

Looking at schedule adjusted points/game allowed to rbs: Buff, SF, and Oak have top 5 matchups.  Looking at the RG rush potential (OL vs. DL):   Buff is 1, Oak is 2, SF is 3.    Looking at teams who rush the most in the RZ, and guess what - Buff is 3, SF is 4, and Oak is 5 for the slate.  

I think people are on Jacobs a bit, but because Buff and SF seem to be time shares, I think the ownership will be rock bottom there.  However, looking even deeper, it looks like Brieda gets 0% of the RZ carries, so that put me on Coleman more.   In Buff, Gore is just not a dude that I like to play in gpps, so I think I will take a couple shots with Singletary.  

Looking at all that stuff also made Cook and Fournette pop out a bit for cash, so I think I am leaning that way at least to start my core.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
I get that approach, as I usually gravitate to L.Jackson every week.  I guess my hesitation with Allen is of the options at the top he is the least likely to have a back and forth game, and is coming off a wicked hit.  Just don't know how much Buffalo would really want him running around this week either.  
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Audible!

ryan

cook

murray

fournette

cooks

hilton

Ridley

hockenson

packers

 
Current cash lineup-

Ryan, Fournette,Carson,Kupp,Lazard,Hilton,Hooper,Coleman,Bears

Craziest 25cent gpps

Trubisky,Mack, Henry,Robinson,Julio,Hopkins,Everett,Cooks,Colts

Rogers,Jones, Freeman,Hopkins,Kumero, Ridley,Graham,Golladay,Bills

 
Right now in my cash LU I am at a point where it's this 2v2:

Kupp + 5.1K for a RB (K.Johnson?)

or

6K for Wr (thought about Chark, but have Fournette in)  + Carson

 
I put this in the fan duel thread as well, but his value screams on both sites. Thoughts on the lizard king, aka Lazard in GB? I think he's an obvious GPP play with 3-4x ability at his cost.  Cash play if both MVS and Allison are out? Still a cash play if both play injured? I'm torn on this. Looking for some input from y'all. 

Definitely a $$ saver wherever he gets played. I just want that 10-15 point floor for my cash games. I'm leaning towards him getting it, but still have some doubts. AROD does have a way of coming through for ya after he pimps one of his players. Did it with Adams earlier this year too and Adams put up a huge game. 🤷‍♂️

 
Right now I have him locked in my cash game, but not gpps.  I am torn because I seem to get burnt on the 3k crappers lately.  

I try not to play people I dont think can honestly get 20+pts in a game in gpps, so I am torn on him in that format.  I think I would rather pay up a little for guys like Metcalf or M.Wiiliams, but :shrug: . 

 
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