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WR Allen Lazard, NYJ (2 Viewers)

Ilov80s said:
I just added him in my main league to get through these bye weeks. I would have preferred to play Lazard but it’s too risky that he gives me a 0.
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Makes sense. Although the Pats linebackers and nickel corners might make life miserable. 

 
irishidiot said:
and our fantasy season started out with such promise.
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He was a late-round flyer?

*groans slightly*

He's no Lazard.

Allison is active, as is MVS, per NFL Network, as has been pointed out.

The magic didn't even get to flash in the pan before it was snuffed by a spell. 

eta* Love how all the cool kids are in the Lazard thread. There's a junkie element to this - like, "Maybe I can win that fourth league if..." 

 
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Leapfrog game for the Lazard King?

If not, he goes down as a 1-week wonder missed by everyone. If so, he likely starts week 8.

 
Despite MVS and Geronimo being active, still think Lazard will have his moments. 

4/48/TD-50%, he has a 6-5 frame and although I believe Jimmy Graham is active, that guy has been unreliable and should Oakland stay in this game I think Lazard would have a better chance to shine if it's close. 

There is a whole other line of thinking that Oakland won't be able to move the football, they just simply will not with nothing at WR, Carr is missing his LT, no time in the pocket and nobody to throw to other than his TE and RB. Green bay might be able to just line up and run the ball withJones and Williams, grind this thing out 20-10 or something and go home happy campers. Does Green bay really want to throw it all over the place and risk an interception that could turn the game around? I see them playing close to the vest, play it safe, they should win easily and if they need Rodgers to do his heroics, they can determine that more at halftime. 

Half Score 13-3 as the Packers figure they can run the ball a lot in the 2nd half. 

I'm not saying that's exactly what happens but I can see that scenario where a few days ago I thought the addition of Zay Jones might help, he's inactive today. This could end up being a low scoring football game. 

 
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lod001 said:
They just said Lazard is working with the 1st team in pregame
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OK that's what I've been waiting to hear...if he is going to get the snaps I think Rodgers will find him. I don't mind him being in 3-WR sets with the other two starters, think he can hold his own...oh boy, 10 minutes before we gotta lock in? 

Cone of Uncertainty

 
Ministry of Pain said:
OK that's what I've been waiting to hear...if he is going to get the snaps I think Rodgers will find him. I don't mind him being in 3-WR sets with the other two starters, think he can hold his own...oh boy, 10 minutes before we gotta lock in? 

Cone of Uncertainty
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Oh man, is this gonna reach Cat 1 or out to sea?    I got my supplies (Duke Williams) not sure if should use them.

 
I'm got starting in a couple of leagues with starter/depth issues.  In another although not starting him, I added him to the bench in place of a "famous" under performing / often injured wr who I am afraid to start even when he is healthy.  What do I think are the odds of Lazard rising? I put it higher than I normally would due to his size, that GB has kept him hanging around when they didn't need to, and that when he got in the game, he caught the stinking ball (unlike some other GB wrs that are cluttering my bench). I'd say perhaps 30-35%.  Enough for me to take a ride on the train

To put my comments in context, I am speaking in regards to dynasty leagues. And the league where I dropped the "famous" we, is a 10-team league where we keep 6, the famous wr was would be a 4th round keeper (I would not keep him there) and Lazard would be a 20th round keeper as an undrafted player.

 
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top NFL QB in Rodgers, great words from him towards Lazard, a WR corp that's continually injured .......... the upside is still there for dang sure. DYNASTY KEEP

 
Stealthycat said:
top NFL QB in Rodgers, great words from him towards Lazard, a WR corp that's continually injured .......... the upside is still there for dang sure. DYNASTY KEEP
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I agree he is still a stash.  But he slid down the pole a bit today.  I'm holding in some of my dyno leagues. In another, I dropped him today (yes, it is one of those - FCFS 24/7 except for dropped players who are put on waivers) to pick up Ty Johnson after seeing that Ty got 4 targets and out touched KJohnson.  I'll admit to not knowing *why* he out touched, but just seeing the touches/targets was enough for me as he's been on the radar waiting for some sign of life.  If a spot opens up on this squad in a week or two, and Lazard is still available I certainly could see myself stashing him again.

 
flapgreen said:
Robinson can't be stopped when Mitch is getting him the ball. Outscored Lizard and it's only first quarter. 
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Robinson can't be stopped when Daniel is getting him the ball. I don't hope for injury, but I hope to see Trubisky replaced sooner rather than later. 

 
barackdhouse said:
I don't see anything saying MVS was upgraded. Why do people think he will play? He missed practice Friday. Isn't it Allison, Lazard and some other scrub at WR3?
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Jake Kumerow, who Lazzard has not been able to leapfrog in the pecking order yet. 

 
I know he has a ton of amazing measurables but that horrendous drop in the 2nd quarter does not speak well for him.

You can't be more wide open and you can't expect a better placed throw. 

Not a lot to go on yet but that drop made me think that Troy Williamson had a lot of amazing measurables too. 

 
Chaka said:
I know he has a ton of amazing measurables but that horrendous drop in the 2nd quarter does not speak well for him.

You can't be more wide open and you can't expect a better placed throw. 

Not a lot to go on yet but that drop made me think that Troy Williamson had a lot of amazing measurables too. 
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Yeah, that was awful. You have to catch that with your hands and he tried to body catch it.

 
Allen Lazard caught 3-of-4 targets for 42 yards in the Packers' Week 7 win over the Raiders.

Even with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison active, Lazard paced the Packers' receiver corps in snaps. Unfortunately, his missed connection was a brutal drop. MVS, Aaron Jones and Jake Kumerow provided the big plays in the passing game. Lazard was a good Week 6 story but especially with Davante Adams (toe) getting closer to a return, it's hard to see Lazard carving out sustained value in either season-long or DFS.

Oct 20, 2019, 7:04 PM ET
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Allen Lazard played 51-of-60 snaps (85%) in the Packers' Week 7 win over the Raiders.

His 85% snap share led all Packers wideouts, and Lazard also paced the group with 27 routes. However, it didn't translate to a big game in the box score, as Lazard was held to a scoreless 3-42 line on four targets while Jake Kumerow and Marquez Valdes-Scantling scored long touchdowns along with Geronimo Allison also visiting the paint. Lazard was essentially the only one to NOT do something in Aaron Rodgers' six-touchdown game. Lazard's usage was still promising coming off his big Week 6. He's someone to own in dynasty, but his redraft appeal is bleak with Davante Adams (toe) likely coming back soon.

SOURCE: John Daigle on Twitter

Oct 21, 2019, 7:46 PM ET
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I mean, sort of. 

cancellation is kind of a myth tho. The only time it really works is if they’re the last two players in the night game & neither gets hurt. and it’s PPR & all your opponents TDs go to your dude. 

for the 1st time in decades this happened to me this year where my opponent had Wilson & I had Lockett & Carson. 

but really you just need your WRX to outscore his WRX, and your QB to outscore his QB.

otherwise it’s kind of irrelevant that he has ARod & you have Lizard King.

It probably hurts you more than hedges that he has ARod.
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Late to the discussion, but cancellation/hedging definitely is a thing.

The crux of the thing is variance... whoever is the underdog wants to maximize variance, and whoever is the favorite wants to minimize variance.

So if you've got two WRs that have roughly the same projection, but one is a Crowder type with a high floor and low ceiling, and the other is a Marvin Jones type with low floor, high ceiling, which one you should put in your lineup depends on whether you want to increase or decrease variance that week.

Cancelling out the other guy's QB by starting one of his WRs is another way to decrease variance, so it makes sense to do it if you think you're the favorite that week.

This theory is all built into the algorithms FBG uses in the myFBG app.  There's documentation on it somewhere.

 
davearm said:
Late to the discussion, but cancellation/hedging definitely is a thing.

The crux of the thing is variance... whoever is the underdog wants to maximize variance, and whoever is the favorite wants to minimize variance.

So if you've got two WRs that have roughly the same projection, but one is a Crowder type with a high floor and low ceiling, and the other is a Marvin Jones type with low floor, high ceiling, which one you should put in your lineup depends on whether you want to increase or decrease variance that week.

Cancelling out the other guy's QB by starting one of his WRs is another way to decrease variance, so it makes sense to do it if you think you're the favorite that week.

This theory is all built into the algorithms FBG uses in the myFBG app.  There's documentation on it somewhere.
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This is actually something they put into their Matchup Dominator, this variance. There's a negative and positive correlation to the variance and whether or not it benefits the underdog or the favorite going into the match-up. The problem I think people are making fun of is when you willy-nilly start a cancelling player regardless of who you can substitute rather than the actual math itself. 

Variance is one of the first concepts you learn in statistics. It's pretty valid as a concern. 

 
rockaction said:
This is actually something they put into their Matchup Dominator, this variance. There's a negative and positive correlation to the variance and whether or not it benefits the underdog or the favorite going into the match-up. The problem I think people are making fun of is when you willy-nilly start a cancelling player regardless of who you can substitute rather than the actual math itself. 

Variance is one of the first concepts you learn in statistics. It's pretty valid as a concern. 
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Right, this stuff starts to matter when you've got two or more options that are pretty similar in their projection.  You don't sit Julio Jones for Allen Lazard. 

But If you're choosing between Lazard and another fringey guy (or Jones and another stud), then this variance/correlation stuff definitely factors into the decision.

 
Allen Lazard caught five passes for 42 yards in Week 8 against the Chiefs.

Lazard had an expanded role for the second straight week. He played 45 snaps, ahead of both Marquez Valdes-Scantling (41) and Geronimo Allison (42). It’s been a solid two-game stretch for Lazard, but with Davante Adams potentially returning next week, Lazard’s targets are going to take a hit.

Oct 28, 2019, 12:01 AM ET
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Lizard King been quietly solid the last two weeks, following his breakout 4th qtr three games ago. Barely came up short at the goal line last week, else there'd be way more hype on him right now. Even with Adams' return seemingly imminent, I think Lazard's role could still be very good ROS. Holding for as long as my itchy waiver finger allows. Ideally want to see LK and DA in the lineup together for the next two weeks before deciding what to do with him. Adams' presence may actually do more good than harm. Let's watch.

 
LawFitz said:
Lizard King been quietly solid the last two weeks, following his breakout 4th qtr three games ago. Barely came up short at the goal line last week, else there'd be way more hype on him right now. Even with Adams' return seemingly imminent, I think Lazard's role could still be very good ROS. Holding for as long as my itchy waiver finger allows. Ideally want to see LK and DA in the lineup together for the next two weeks before deciding what to do with him. Adams' presence may actually do more good than harm. Let's watch.
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Agreed

 
Loomba said:
He has flashed at times, but not much recently.  What do we think about his prospects for 2020?  I'd like to stash him for next year.  
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He's losing some snaps, but im definitely going to hold on to him in dynasty to see what happens.  The other WR in town have done very little with their opportunities, and I think being on the same page with Rodgers is the key to success in Green Bay. 

Rodgers looks washed compared to his former self though, however I think that is mostly because his entire game hinged on precise timing routes that he can't seem to execute at all with his current WR corps.  He also would get big yards extending plays outside the pocket, but that isn't working as well either. 

 
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Allen Lazard caught 3-of-3 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' Week 13 win over the Giants.

Lazard’s first reception was a 43-yard bomb that Aaron Rodgers’ No. 2 WR corralled with a pretty diving catch. His touchdown featured some smooth route running to get free on a deep post from 37 yards out. This is still a crowded passing game that featured each of Davante Admas (10 targets), Aaron Jones (6) and Jamaal Williams (4) ahead of Lazard, but the second-year WR has gained at least 40 receiving yards in five of the Packers’ last seven games. Treat him as a boom-or-bust WR4 ahead of next week’s potential smash spot against the Redskins at home.
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I'm finding it very difficult to hold on to him in dynasty leagues.  Have to make room for draft picks.  I'm thinking it gets very difficult to keep him in Devy leageus for sure and in some dynasty leagues where you have several 1st and 2nd rd picks, with roster limits of either 22 or 24.

 
JohnnyU said:
I'm finding it very difficult to hold on to him in dynasty leagues.  Have to make room for draft picks.  I'm thinking it gets very difficult to keep him in Devy leageus for sure and in some dynasty leagues where you have several 1st and 2nd rd picks, with roster limits of either 22 or 24.
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Its really hard to know...he seems like the posession/3rd down option along with Adams...but doesn't seem to be getting more than a 50-75 yard a game type of thing.  And not much attention in the redzone with how well Jones has played in the run game this year.

This time last year, it looked like MVS and he just never built on his rookie year...will Lazard build on this year or just be another guy who gets passed by the next option next year?

I wouldn't blame anyone for looking for more upside elsewhere in dynasty.

 
JohnnyU said:
I'm finding it very difficult to hold on to him in dynasty leagues.  Have to make room for draft picks.  I'm thinking it gets very difficult to keep him in Devy leageus for sure and in some dynasty leagues where you have several 1st and 2nd rd picks, with roster limits of either 22 or 24.
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Yeah its tough this time of year.  I try to consolidate value so I don't get squeezed and have to drop... 

Lazard is a must keep for me.  He could easily happen upon that last 1st round valuation that MVS found himself having a little less than a year ago.  The snaps show Lazard is as deserving of that as MVS was last year.

 
Even if Funchess was theoretically a challenger to Lazard position/role wise, he was never (IMO) going to win that battle since Lazard is just better. So shouldn't change much value-wise for Lazard. He's one of those guys anyway that the believers believe and those who don't often don't even know who he is. 

 
Thanks for pointing out the slot usage. If I look at his snap count last season and production and then increase his snap counts to be more full time then I project him to be 180 points in ppr. This is low end wr3.
 

This all sounds great until we hear Antonio Brown to Green Bay. 😀

 
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