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Dynasty & Redraft: J.K. Dobbins, Ravens


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25 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

He has averaged 130 rushing attempts the last 3 seasons. That is 8 per game so with the extra game 138.

Unless you think his workload will increase because of the new contract and departure of Ingram?

I was thinking his workload would stay the same but that Dobbins opportunity would increase as no Ingram and maybe some Justice Hill or something sprinkled in as well but most of Ingrams work going to Dobbins.

I agree I think his workload will be about the same.  

Ingram leaves 72 vacated carries.  Let's just add them all to Dobbins.  That puts him at 206.  I don't love the volume.  But I think he can have numbers similar to what Aaron Jones did last year.  Granted, Jones only played 14 games.  I had seen him going the 2nd in some mocks.  Looking at ADP data it seems he's going at the start of the 3rd.  

I'm pro-Dobbins.  I just worry what the price is going to be.

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1 minute ago, jm192 said:

I agree I think his workload will be about the same.  

Ingram leaves 72 vacated carries.  Let's just add them all to Dobbins.  That puts him at 206.  I don't love the volume.  But I think he can have numbers similar to what Aaron Jones did last year.  Granted, Jones only played 14 games.  I had seen him going the 2nd in some mocks.  Looking at ADP data it seems he's going at the start of the 3rd.  

I'm pro-Dobbins.  I just worry what the price is going to be.

Yeah I hear you I would like to add Dobbins on teams that dont already have him.

I was reading the Gus Edwards thread and @Uruk-Hai was saying 160 rushing attempts for Edwards and I respect his opinion. He knows all things Ravens better than I do, so I may revise my prognostication to that now.

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44 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

He has averaged 130 rushing attempts the last 3 seasons. That is 8 per game so with the extra game 138.

Unless you think his workload will increase because of the new contract and departure of Ingram?

I was thinking his workload would stay the same but that Dobbins opportunity would increase as no Ingram and maybe some Justice Hill or something sprinkled in as well but most of Ingrams work going to Dobbins.

IMHO, most of Ingram's work will go to Dobbins, and some of Edwards' work will go to Hill. With Ingram out of the mix, I don't see how we don't see some Hill this year...he just won't occupy anywhere near the amount of touches as Ingram or Edwards would in a healthy Dobbins/Ingram/Edwards RBBC...but he'll get a share, on both running and passing downs. I own all 3 here and there, and I like them all as Players, a lot. Great RB room.

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23 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah I hear you I would like to add Dobbins on teams that dont already have him.

I was reading the Gus Edwards thread and @Uruk-Hai was saying 160 rushing attempts for Edwards and I respect his opinion. He knows all things Ravens better than I do, so I may revise my prognostication to that now.

:lol: My memory is failing me in my old age. I'd have to go back and see how I got to 160 attempts for Edwards, but that feels about right. I may have been estimating on the high side when I wrote that, but with Gus just re-upping for two years, I'd guess Baltimore wouldn't hesitate to add a carry or two a game to his workload. He produces. 

Dobbins is the most talented RB on their roster. He'll get the bulk of the RB carries. He has to block better (I think he will) and no one really knows if he can be a receiving weapon (I think that'll improve, also). Maybe 200 carries and 35 receptions?

I think Jackson runs less this year, but I honestly don't know how Hill will take more than a few carries per game. Maybe a couple of catches, too, if Dobbins has butter-fingers.

Edited by Uruk-Hai
because I can't spell
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7 hours ago, jm192 said:

I think Edwards and the coaching staff put a cap on his upside.  I think he'll see ~225 rushes, and he'll be super efficient.  But if we're talking re-draft and he's going in the 2nd round--I'm suddenly iffy.  

It's hard to get excited about. Last year, and the entire RB group combined to give you about 22.5 PPR fantasy points. was a little higher the previous year but still taking a two year total it's averaged out to about 23 a game. Three RB's beat that by themselves last year.

Just not enough points to go around. He can/should be solid,  but at best so long as Gus is healthy a very low end RB1(If he took 70% of that two year average he'd have been RB12 last year).  If you don't want to make a mistake he's an ok option in late round 2, I don't think he'll hurt you, but he's not exactly profiling like a league winner.

 

 

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Yeah I'm on again off again with him. I still think 2019 Ingram is his floor and that Dobbins >>> Ingram. And I like Ingram a lot. 

But still, the GL work for Lamar and Gus scares me a lot. And the Ravens in game rotations are really stupid. I'm hoping they really learned some lessons from last year. 

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29 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I think he could be the best pure runner in the league and the Ravens situation sucks for him. Doubtful he will ever be top 5. 

Nick Chubb begs to differ.
 

I do agree though. Dobbins needs to get 15-18 creative touches weekly. The sky is the limit for this kid. 

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My expectations for JK haven't changed. He's the lead guy. There's just an extra game now and it's in every team's best interest to manage their best player's workload during the season so they can unleash them come playoff time assuming he meets expectations and they're all healthy. 

He isn't a top tier option, but I don't see much difference between him and anyone else in tier 2. Market rate may change though. 

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It's funny that Dobbins is being viewed through the lens of whether he's a top-5 or top-10 or top-12 back. I was pretty high on him as a rookie and took him in a few leagues as the rookie RB3 after Taylor and CEH (1 QB leagues). I think it seems people are down on him because of how strong the 2020 class is -- it's likely that those who took Dobbins probably passed on Swift and Akers, and, if we're looking at present value, later picks Jefferson and Lamb (and Herbert in superflex) now have passed Dobbins in value. I think it's clear that, at least after a year, the 2020 first-round class is devoid of a lot of true busts, which is an anomaly. While I would of course prefer that I had Akers or Swift instead of Dobbins right now, Dobbins is still currently a second- or third-round startup pick (depending on format), which I think is a very good return on a rookie pick, even if it was a high first-rounder. In 1 QB leagues, Dobbins is more valuable than every 2019 first-rounder, save for Metcalf and AJ Brown (although Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders did retain value after their first year). I would love if Dobbins turned into a top-12 RB, but I'm even happier that (so far) he's not a Darrell Henderson, Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny or Sony Michel. 

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On 6/8/2021 at 1:22 PM, phandango said:

It's funny that Dobbins is being viewed through the lens of whether he's a top-5 or top-10 or top-12 back. I was pretty high on him as a rookie and took him in a few leagues as the rookie RB3 after Taylor and CEH (1 QB leagues). I think it seems people are down on him because of how strong the 2020 class is -- it's likely that those who took Dobbins probably passed on Swift and Akers, and, if we're looking at present value, later picks Jefferson and Lamb (and Herbert in superflex) now have passed Dobbins in value. I think it's clear that, at least after a year, the 2020 first-round class is devoid of a lot of true busts, which is an anomaly. While I would of course prefer that I had Akers or Swift instead of Dobbins right now, Dobbins is still currently a second- or third-round startup pick (depending on format), which I think is a very good return on a rookie pick, even if it was a high first-rounder. In 1 QB leagues, Dobbins is more valuable than every 2019 first-rounder, save for Metcalf and AJ Brown (although Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders did retain value after their first year). I would love if Dobbins turned into a top-12 RB, but I'm even happier that (so far) he's not a Darrell Henderson, Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny or Sony Michel. 

The way I try to tier rookies for rankings is that a player I have in tier one is a player I think can become a top 12 player at their position for fantasy within their first 3 seasons in the league.

Dobbins is definitely a tier one talent as far as that goes and how these players are valued right now is too much based on 2020 performance than the way that I look at things, which is always in a 3 year moving window. The basis of most of my projections is 3 years as well.

I think Dobbins will have his time in the limelight. Either this season or in 2022.

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41 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

The way I try to tier rookies for rankings is that a player I have in tier one is a player I think can become a top 12 player at their position for fantasy within their first 3 seasons in the league.

Dobbins is definitely a tier one talent as far as that goes and how these players are valued right now is too much based on 2020 performance than the way that I look at things, which is always in a 3 year moving window. The basis of most of my projections is 3 years as well.

I think Dobbins will have his time in the limelight. Either this season or in 2022.

This 100% for me. I drafted him 3rd overall in our rookie draft after CEH and Taylor, and I traded up to do it. I didn't draft him for 2020 (alhough I thought I might get some use out of him later in the year.) I believe a top 12 season is within reach this year. If not, it won't be by much. 

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Doesn’t Lamar’s lack of desire to dump the ball off limit his ceiling? When the first and sometimes second read isn’t there, Lamar just takes off. Granted, I’m not a Ravens expert but this would keep me from placing him anywhere other than a mid RB2. 

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1 hour ago, -jb- said:

Doesn’t Lamar’s lack of desire to dump the ball off limit his ceiling? When the first and sometimes second read isn’t there, Lamar just takes off. Granted, I’m not a Ravens expert but this would keep me from placing him anywhere other than a mid RB2. 

100%

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5 hours ago, -jb- said:

Doesn’t Lamar’s lack of desire to dump the ball off limit his ceiling? When the first and sometimes second read isn’t there, Lamar just takes off. Granted, I’m not a Ravens expert but this would keep me from placing him anywhere other than a mid RB2. 

Last year part of it was play calling (RBs weren't out in many routes), part of it was that the interior OL was awful (no time and the RBs having to stay in to block), and part of it was Jackson getting skittish (or wanting to play hero ball) because of the other two parts. 

Throwing to the RBs is supposed to be a point-of-emphasis at this year's OTAs and TC. We'll see how much is lip service, but reports are that Dobbins has been more involved in receiving routes.

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10 hours ago, -jb- said:

Doesn’t Lamar’s lack of desire to dump the ball off limit his ceiling? When the first and sometimes second read isn’t there, Lamar just takes off. Granted, I’m not a Ravens expert but this would keep me from placing him anywhere other than a mid RB2. 

It limits his receiving upside for sure, just like any other running QB. He won't get those quick dump offs most times like he would if he played with a guy like Brees. They'll have to be designed pass plays to Dobbins for him to get a good amount of receptions, IMO.

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All very good pts on both sides regarding Dobbins outlook. I watched his usage very closely last year and can understand the frustration. My take, Dobbins is a very real talent. His ranking this year is dependent on how creative the Ravens can get with his touches, as well Lamar NEEDS to learn how to check down. I saw countless times Dobbins open in the flat for what would be good gains and LJ doesn’t even look at him. I think Harbaugh knows this is what this offence needs to take the next step up. All this negativity about how Lamar is so bad for Dobbins outlook though needs to be re-examined. We cannot overlook how much attention Lamar demands on those RPO’s and the space Dobbins has in front of him to run because of this.
 

Potential outcomes IMO
 

1. We continue to see more of the same this year as last and Dobbins on efficiency alone finishes a mid to strong RB2.  Possible 

2. Baltimore based on their draft starts to become more Buffalo, wants to pass and the running game is somewhat phased out and Dobbins becomes a frustrating RB3. Not likely

3. The Ravens travel to Vegas and play the Raiders on Monday night of opening weekend and show us a new version of themselves. We see Lamar doing most of his usual stuff but added are some screens and check downs and high percentage passes designed to utilize the strengths of some of these other players. In turn Dobbins puts up 117 yards on the ground and another 38 through the air along with 2 total TDs. 4 weeks later we are all asking ourselves how the hell we doubted picking him in the 3rd round along the likes of Jacobs, Montgomery, and Gaskin while he’s putting up strong RB1 numbers. Quite possible and IMO very likely

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  • 2 weeks later...


 

Quote

Jamey Eisenberg @JameyEisenberg

On Dobbins: “Ravens coaches have been vocal about their desire to get the running backs more involved in the passing game, and Dobbins has shown this offseason that he’s capable of contributing … he’s giving the coaching staff plenty of reasons to keep him on the field more.”

https://twitter.com/jameyeisenberg/status/1406941959130845184?s=21

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  • 2 weeks later...
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The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec said Ravens coaches believe J.K. Dobbins is "capable of more and would like to get him more involved in the passing game."

Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have said they want their running backs to see more targets in 2021, which would require a radical change in an offense that had the second fewest running back receptions in 2020. Following sporadic usage in the first half of his rookie year, Dobbins saw much more playing time in the season's final month and a half. Zrebiec said the Ravens offense "hit another level offensively last season after Dobbins was thrust into a prominent role." Dobbins' redraft ADP will be suppressed by the looming threat of Gus Edwards, who has drawn praise from Roman as a 1B sort of committee back. 

RELATED: 

Gus Edwards

SOURCE: The Athletic 

Jul 6, 2021, 8:05 AM ET

 

 

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