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Dynasty & Redraft: J.K. Dobbins, Ravens


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Per Pro Football Focus, Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins' 31 runs of 15-plus yards were tops among draft-eligible running backs in 2019.

Dobbins (5'10/217) narrowly edged out Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor in this category. Taylor finished with 30 runs of 15 or more yards this past season. In his most recent mock draft, Bleacher Report's Matt Miller had Dobbins coming off the board as a second-round selection at pick No. 47 to the Falcons. Dobbins could certainly swing a little higher toward the first round if a team falls in love with him, but Round 2 should be viewed as his sweet spot at this juncture.

SOURCE: PFF Draft on Twitter

Feb 3, 2020, 1:42 PM ET

 

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The Athletic's Dane Brugler ranks Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins first on his running back board prior to the combine.

Brugler notes that there's a good chance that there's no running back who goes in the first 20 selections, but there are four who rank in his top 50, starting with Dobbins. He calls the 5-foot-10, 217-pound tailback " very skilled at finding and clearing holes, and he makes it a chore for defenders to finish him, chopping his feet in space, stepping out of tackle attempts and maintaining his balance at contact." He also notes that he is built for the pro game because his vision is so good, and believes Dobbins can be a three-down player. There's certainly competition here, but Dobbins has a chance to be the very first tailback off the board come April.

SOURCE: The Athletic

Feb 8, 2020, 12:08 PM ET

 

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📽️ >>>> Video clip of Dobbins in action

Benjamin Solak@BenjaminSolak

Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins is FUN

  • Vision/decision-making defines the path
  • Mobility in the lower half EXECUTES
  • Instincts help him string moves together

Dobbins' change of direction skills are sneaky awesome, especially for a guy of his density. OILY HIPS #NFLDraft

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On 2/12/2020 at 8:57 AM, Bracie Smathers said:

📽️ >>>> Video clip of Dobbins in action

Benjamin Solak@BenjaminSolak

Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins is FUN

  • Vision/decision-making defines the path
  • Mobility in the lower half EXECUTES
  • Instincts help him string moves together

Dobbins' change of direction skills are sneaky awesome, especially for a guy of his density. OILY HIPS #NFLDraft

This isn't an observation I made watching him. The guy says though Dobbins has "sneaky" change of direction, I must have missed it. For serious, there's a lot to like about Dobbins but he's not juking defenders out of their socks. 

Edited by cloppbeast
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31 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

This isn't an observation I made watching him. The guy says though Dobbins has "sneaky" change of direction, I must have missed it. For serious, there's a lot to like about Dobbins but he's not juking defenders out of their socks. 

See the attached video clip.

Not sure if you see something else because if he's not resetting his feet and adjusting his hips then what do you see?

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5 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

See the attached video clip.

Not sure if you see something else because if he's not resetting his feet and adjusting his hips then what do you see?

First, his vision made the run happen. Impressive he could spot the lane from how the play began. Thats my take away. 

As far as his change of direction, it's hard to judge from the camera behind center (and slow motion). For me anyway, poor frame of reference. I normally watch football from the standard broadcast, side-line or whatever. Having watched a few others this year, he doesn't compare in elusiveness to Swift or Zack Moss; or Miles Sanders, Montgomery last year. 

To be fair, the guy said Dobbins has "sneaky" change of direction. I can agree with this. I wouldn't call it a strength but adequate. He's more of a run forward type without much wasted movement, this is a good thing. But he can slip a defender sometimes, picking oportune moments. Sneaky is a good word for it. 

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3 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

First, his vision made the run happen. Impressive he could spot the lane from how the play began. Thats my take away. 

As far as his change of direction, it's hard to judge from the camera behind center (and slow motion). For me anyway, poor frame of reference. I normally watch football from the standard broadcast, side-line or whatever. Having watched a few others this year, he doesn't compare in elusiveness to Swift or Zack Moss; or Miles Sanders, Montgomery last year. 

To be fair, the guy said Dobbins has "sneaky" change of direction. I can agree with this. I wouldn't call it a strength but adequate. He's more of a run forward type without much wasted movement, this is a good thing. But he can slip a defender sometimes, picking oportune moments. Sneaky is a good word for it. 

The one thing I question about Dobbins is long speed.  He's not terrible by any means and he gets through the hole in a hurry and has good vision, but I have seen him being caught from behind several times.  Some of those were that the defense had the angle on him, but.......sometimes not.

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2 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

First, his vision made the run happen. Impressive he could spot the lane from how the play began. Thats my take away. 

As far as his change of direction, it's hard to judge from the camera behind center (and slow motion). For me anyway, poor frame of reference. I normally watch football from the standard broadcast, side-line or whatever. Having watched a few others this year, he doesn't compare in elusiveness to Swift or Zack Moss; or Miles Sanders, Montgomery last year. 

To be fair, the guy said Dobbins has "sneaky" change of direction. I can agree with this. I wouldn't call it a strength but adequate. He's more of a run forward type without much wasted movement, this is a good thing. But he can slip a defender sometimes, picking oportune moments. Sneaky is a good word for it. 

I thought he made a great point about him 'flipping his hips' and he shows examples where you see him planting one foot and 'swiveling' his hips to point in a different direction to the defender's hips.

Take a second look and focus in on Dobbins' hips at the start of the run (where its supposed to go) and how the defense reacts.  

You noted his vision so he sees the hole is/will be filled by defenders so at that point he plants his foot and then..........

Watch him change the direction of his hips IN RELATION to the defender.

The defender HAS  NOT planted his foot so the defenders hips are pointing in the original direction.

Dobbins hips are pointing in a different direction at that point.

Vision is great but he shows COD examples.

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2 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

The one thing I question about Dobbins is long speed.  He's not terrible by any means and he gets through the hole in a hurry and has good vision, but I have seen him being caught from behind several times.  Some of those were that the defense had the angle on him, but.......sometimes not.

THIS.

He doesn't have 'great' speed and people aren't sure about his weight.

The Combine is coming up so he'll either bulk up or lose weight and run the forty at the Combine and visa-versa at his Pro Day but speed is not a strength. 

Hoping for a solid forty in the 4.6 range.

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4 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

THIS.

He doesn't have 'great' speed and people aren't sure about his weight.

The Combine is coming up so he'll either bulk up or lose weight and run the forty at the Combine and visa-versa at his Pro Day but speed is not a strength. 

Hoping for a solid forty in the 4.6 range.

His short speed is excellent, but long speed, not so much.  Again, not terrible, just not elite.  His short speed is elite however.  That, along with his other positive traits is all it takes to be very good anyway.   At the end of the day, it doesn't matter who the RB is most of the time, if he lands in a crappy situation (bad OL, bad QB, bad scheme, stud already at the position) I'll probably pass considering the shelf life of RBs in the NFL.

Edited by JohnnyU
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6 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

His short speed is excellent, but long speed, not so much.  Again, not terrible, just not elite.  His short speed is elite however.  That, along with his other positive traits is all it takes to be very good anyway. 

This is very true. Low end is a lot more important for running back. Best case combine scenario is a 10 yard split of 1.50-1.55 but 40 over 4.6 - slow enough to lower his stock. 

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27 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

This is very true. Low end is a lot more important for running back. Best case combine scenario is a 10 yard split of 1.50-1.55 but 40 over 4.6 - slow enough to lower his stock. 

I don't think he will run a slow 40.  Like I said earlier, his speed for 40-60 yards is very good.  It's between 60-70 yards that he seems to slow some, but not terrible.

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44 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

THIS.

He doesn't have 'great' speed and people aren't sure about his weight.

The Combine is coming up so he'll either bulk up or lose weight and run the forty at the Combine and visa-versa at his Pro Day but speed is not a strength. 

Hoping for a solid forty in the 4.6 range.

Dobbins should easily top 4.6. He was timed at 4.44 as a recruit, but he was 15 pounds lighter at the time. That same workout produced a 4.09 shuttle, and a 43.1 vertical. Dobbins had the best SPARQ score of any RB recruit that year.

I'm not a giant Dobbins fan, because I like RB's that either make lots of guys miss, or are huge mismatches in the passing game, and Dobbins is neither of those, but his vision and athleticism aren't things I'm concerned about. All that said, he's a 3rd rounder in my book, and the #4 RB on my board.

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3 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Dobbins should easily top 4.6. He was timed at 4.44 as a recruit, but he was 15 pounds lighter at the time. That same workout produced a 4.09 shuttle, and a 43.1 vertical. Dobbins had the best SPARQ score of any RB recruit that year.

I'm not a giant Dobbins fan, because I like RB's that either make lots of guys miss, or are huge mismatches in the passing game, and Dobbins is neither of those, but his vision and athleticism aren't things I'm concerned about. All that said, he's a 3rd rounder in my book, and the #4 RB on my board.

OSU listed Denzel Ward with 4.2 speed and  listed Dobbins at 4.3 in August of 2017.

Ward's official forty time at the Combine was >>>>  @MikeMayock ’s No. 1 CB,  @Flash_Ward12 , just clocked a 4.32u!

Great speed but a tad higher than his OSU numbers and listen to Mayock's commentary noting his 'slight' frame at 183 lbs.

I've heard concerns about Dobbins light frame but he's probably got solid 4.5 speed.

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6 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

OSU listed Denzel Ward with 4.2 speed and  listed Dobbins at 4.3 in August of 2017.

Ward's official forty time at the Combine was >>>>  @MikeMayock ’s No. 1 CB,  @Flash_Ward12 , just clocked a 4.32u!

Great speed but a tad higher than his OSU numbers and listen to Mayock's commentary noting his 'slight' frame at 183 lbs.

I've heard concerns about Dobbins light frame but he's probably got solid 4.5 speed.

Not sure I would worry about Dobbins' size.  Even though listed at 5'10" 217, the combine will be the true indicator.  Have said that, he is thick below the waist and that is a good thing.

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Where will Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins be taken in NFL Draft 2020? Updated Feb 05, 2020; Posted Feb 05, 2020

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...NFL teams in general don’t commit early round draft picks to running backs the way they once did. Dobbins, however, put himself in that consideration.

...Dobbins set the single-season Ohio State rushing record with 2,003 yards while scoring 23 total touchdowns. Only Archie Griffin has more career rushing yards than Dobbins, who gave up the chance to pursue the No. 1 spot when he declared his entry into the draft.

Stats that matter: Dobbins averaged 6.65 yards per carry — the highest for any back with 300 or more carries and third-most among backs with 200 or more.

Pro Football Focus credited Dobbins with 1,207 yards after contact — 4.0 per attempt — and said he broke more tackles in 2019 (73) than in his first two seasons combined.

Dobbins also hauled in 22 or more receptions in all three of his OSU seasons, despite splitting time his first two seasons and playing three or fewer quarters in about half his games as a junior.

...“He broke 73 tackles and scored 21 touchdowns with another 78 first-down carries to his credit,” wrote Pro Football Focus. “Proving to be a man among boys at times, Dobbins’ stiff arms were the prettiest in college football, and he did it all with just three fumbles to his name.”

 

Go to the link for the full read.

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

Not sure I would worry about Dobbins' size.  Even though listed at 5'10" 217, the combine will be the true indicator.  Have said that, he is thick below the waist and that is a good thing.

Agreed but I watched a lot of OSU games this past year and his size was mentioned as a possible concern which I did not agree with.  I've seen him listed at 207.   He 'seems' solid enough and has a great stiff arm.  I think he'll prove to be a solid  receiver.

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7 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Agreed but I watched a lot of OSU games this past year and his size was mentioned as a possible concern which I did not agree with.  I've seen him listed at 207.   He 'seems' solid enough and has a great stiff arm.  I think he'll prove to be a solid  receiver.

My stepson graduated from OSU and I married into an OSU family 23 years ago, so I too watch every OSU game.  I've never heard anything mentioned about his size being an issue.  He's solid as a rock and thick, especially his lower body.  I'm not the least bit worried about Dobbins' size.

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16 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

My stepson graduated from OSU and I married into an OSU family 23 years ago, so I too watch every OSU game.  I've never heard anything mentioned about his size being an issue.  He's solid as a rock and thick, especially his lower body.  I'm not the least bit worried about Dobbins' size.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yWXcNKeM2BE

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On 2/13/2020 at 9:26 AM, cloppbeast said:

First, his vision made the run happen. Impressive he could spot the lane from how the play began. Thats my take away. 

As far as his change of direction, it's hard to judge from the camera behind center (and slow motion). For me anyway, poor frame of reference. I normally watch football from the standard broadcast, side-line or whatever. Having watched a few others this year, he doesn't compare in elusiveness to Swift or Zack Moss; or Miles Sanders, Montgomery last year. 

To be fair, the guy said Dobbins has "sneaky" change of direction. I can agree with this. I wouldn't call it a strength but adequate. He's more of a run forward type without much wasted movement, this is a good thing. But he can slip a defender sometimes, picking oportune moments. Sneaky is a good word for it. 

I agree its great vision as he sees the LB and safety covering the gap up the middle there. He did have a crease and could have hit it inside but he likely only gets 3 yards or so as the 2 defenders are waiting for him there. The cut back is defended as well, but he decides to try that instead. He has to make two guys miss there as well, but he does have a bit more space to work with

Did you notice he was able to run backwards while still presenting a forward profile the defender is reacting to?

That takes a lot of balance and juice to execute real time.

Its just one play. Why would you compare that to all of the other stuff you have watched of these other players?

Seems like you have you mind made up to criticize Dobbins before even watching him.

I have been listening to some podcasts recently and it seems like a pretty popular thing to fade Dobbins right now. I think that tune is going to change after the combine.

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4 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Seems like you have you mind made up to criticize Dobbins before even watching him.

I have been listening to some podcasts recently and it seems like a pretty popular thing to fade Dobbins right now. I think that tune is going to change after the combine.

You'll have to read my posts since. I like Dobbins in fact, he's decisive, quick, displays good vision, and makes a good receiver. I only meant to comment about his 'oily hips'; which imo, is not one of his strengths compared to some of the other running backs in this one and previous drafts.  

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On 2/13/2020 at 9:38 AM, JohnnyU said:

His short speed is excellent, but long speed, not so much.  Again, not terrible, just not elite.  His short speed is elite however.  That, along with his other positive traits is all it takes to be very good anyway.   At the end of the day, it doesn't matter who the RB is most of the time, if he lands in a crappy situation (bad OL, bad QB, bad scheme, stud already at the position) I'll probably pass considering the shelf life of RBs in the NFL.

I don’t think he’s close to elite in anything athletically. I’ve warmed up to him a bit but my first impression was that he’s jag. Seeing how high everyone else is I guess I won’t own him but I think he’s a solid rb, he’s not special when I watch him.

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5 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

You'll have to read my posts since. I like Dobbins in fact, he's decisive, quick, displays good vision, and makes a good receiver. I only meant to comment about his 'oily hips'; which imo, is not one of his strengths compared to some of the other running backs in this one and previous drafts.  

Ah I gotcha.

I haven't watched him enough yet to offer an opinion on that. Maybe his elusiveness is being exaggerated by some, not sure.

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Quote

NFL Media's Lance Zierlein compared Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins to former Houston Texans RB Domanick Williams.

"Dobbins isn't going to be that creative back with the wiggle and juice to create something out of nothing, but he has the efficiency, production and third-down value teams covet," Zierlein writes of the 5-foot-9, 209-pound Ohio State standout. He refers to Dobbins as "more battle axe than buzzsaw," noting that the back's standout attributes come in his "fortitude and toughness." Dobbins does have a theoretical path to a Day 1 selection, but it's a narrow one in a stacked position group. The Athletic's Dane Brugler believes that we might not see a running back off the board in the first 20 picks.

SOURCE: NFL.com

Feb 25, 2020, 2:40 PM ET

 

 

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3 minutes ago, ex-ghost said:

Who the F is Domanick Williams?

Domanick Davis, he changed his name to Williams toward the tail end if his career. 

Its not a bad comp really. He was pretty solid RB in the early-mid 2000's, who just couldn't stay healthy.

I was surprised how small Dobbins was. I was expecting closer to 220. 

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2 hours ago, travdogg said:

I was surprised how small Dobbins was. I was expecting closer to 220. 

My guess is he wanted to weigh in lighter to blaze the 40.  If he doesn't big warning signs go up in my book.  I was expecting 5'10 minimum and 215 minimum.  He got to neither of those marks.  He better run a sub 4.45 at that weight.  Same goes for Swift but Swift doesn't have that expectation because people know he's not a fast guy.  Dobbins is.  

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

My guess is he wanted to weigh in lighter to blaze the 40.  If he doesn't big warning signs go up in my book.  I was expecting 5'10 minimum and 215 minimum.  He got to neither of those marks.  He better run a sub 4.45 at that weight.  Same goes for Swift but Swift doesn't have that expectation because people know he's not a fast guy.  Dobbins is.  

Agreed. I've had Dobbins as a late 2nd, early 3rd type prospect(about the same as Miles Sanders) but that was with the expectation that he was close to 220, and ran 4.4. 

I've had Moss as the #1 RB all along, but if Dobbins can't break 4.45, and Swift isn't any faster than Moss, I think others might come around on that bandwagon...or Taylor will run a 4.3, and people will pivot to him maybe, despite his Venus De Milo hands.

I'm sticking with Jeudy/Lamb as my rookie picks 1.1/1.2, and unless Lamb runs like a 4.6(or Moss surprises and runs under 4.5) I don't anticipate that changing for me.

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9 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

not a lot of buzz here on this guy. some peoples' 1.01. good at everything great at nothing kind of back- although one could say he is great at athelticism 

Sounds like the consensus opinion of Josh Jacobs last year, and I think that’s the comp I’ve heard most frequently for him. 

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

Sounds like the consensus opinion of Josh Jacobs last year, and I think that’s the comp I’ve heard most frequently for him. 

I don't like that comp at all. Jacobs was a 4.6 guy, Dobbins is likely a 4.4, and Jacobs in his limited work, was known for his tackle breaking, and ability to make guys miss. Dobbins got plenty of work, and rarely made guys miss, but hit more big plays. 

Jacobs was a better prospect in my opinion, but if he goes to a perfect spot(KC/Hou) Dobbins could have a similar rookie year fantasy wise. 

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9 hours ago, travdogg said:

 

I've had Moss as the #1 RB all along, but if Dobbins can't break 4.45, a

10 hours ago, Zyphros said:

  He better run a sub 4.45 at that weight.

 

If Dobbins can't break a 4.45 current history suggest it's likely means next to nothing.

Using official NFL combine results were applicable.

8 of the top 10 rushers last year(omitting Lamar) ran at the combine. Not one of them ran 4.45.  The two that did not run were Mixon and Jacobs. We know for sure Jacobs could not run a 4.45. Mixon hit 4.45 exactly at his pro day, which was we often now those times tend to be a tad faster then combine results.

I went ahead and kicked this back to top 15 runners. Lindsay likely would have run sub 4.45 but was not invited, but got to think his 4.39 pro day would have got under 4.45 at combine. He also weighed 184 pounds.  So he's probably the only RB among top 15 runners last year who would have hit 4.45 at the combine.

Putting this in perspective looking at top 15 RB runners last year. 12 of them ran at the combine. Not ONE single one of them ran for 4.45 in the 40. If you include pro day you get Lindsay who I would concede is a sub 4.45 guy and then you got Mixon which is trickier because he ran 4.45 but I'd guess would have been just a tad higher in Indy.

In terms of weight out of that of that  top 15 you got you got the following players that were within 5 pounds of being over Dobbins 209 or under:  CMC at 202, Aaron Jones at 208, Dalvin at 210, Marlon Mack at 213, and of course Lindsay at 184. Mark Ingram at 215 missed by a pound.

Now if you extend this to top 20 runners it does look a tad better but one is kind of hard to gauge and that one is Peterson who by far has fastest combine time of any top 20 rusher from last year at 4.41 but that was so long ago and I'm pretty sure he's not a sub 4.45 guy. But if you extend this to top 20 you at least get to include Barkely at 4.4(fastest combine time of any to 20 running back other then Peterson)  and Miles Sanders at 4.49.

If a guy runs a 4.65 we are getting into concerning times. If a player runs a 4.6+, tests poorly in 3 cone, jumps and 10/20 yard splits we got a problem.

But I just can't being to emphasize enough how little bearing the actual 40 time in and of itself matters. At least matters for me and what appears to be the actual results on the field.

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23 minutes ago, menobrown said:

If Dobbins can't break a 4.45 current history suggest it's likely means next to nothing.

Using official NFL combine results were applicable.

8 of the top 10 rushers last year(omitting Lamar) ran at the combine. Not one of them ran 4.45.  The two that did not run were Mixon and Jacobs. We know for sure Jacobs could not run a 4.45. Mixon hit 4.45 exactly at his pro day, which was we often now those times tend to be a tad faster then combine results.

I went ahead and kicked this back to top 15 runners. Lindsay likely would have run sub 4.45 but was not invited, but got to think his 4.39 pro day would have got under 4.45 at combine. He also weighed 184 pounds.  So he's probably the only RB among top 15 runners last year who would have hit 4.45 at the combine.

Putting this in perspective looking at top 15 RB runners last year. 12 of them ran at the combine. Not ONE single one of them ran for 4.45 in the 40. If you include pro day you get Lindsay who I would concede is a sub 4.45 guy and then you got Mixon which is trickier because he ran 4.45 but I'd guess would have been just a tad higher in Indy.

In terms of weight out of that of that  top 15 you got you got the following players that were within 5 pounds of being over Dobbins 209 or under:  CMC at 202, Aaron Jones at 208, Dalvin at 210, Marlon Mack at 213, and of course Lindsay at 184. Mark Ingram at 215 missed by a pound.

Now if you extend this to top 20 runners it does look a tad better but one is kind of hard to gauge and that one is Peterson who by far has fastest combine time of any top 20 rusher from last year at 4.41 but that was so long ago and I'm pretty sure he's not a sub 4.45 guy. But if you extend this to top 20 you at least get to include Barkely at 4.4(fastest combine time of any to 20 running back other then Peterson)  and Miles Sanders at 4.49.

If a guy runs a 4.65 we are getting into concerning times. If a player runs a 4.6+, tests poorly in 3 cone, jumps and 10/20 yard splits we got a problem.

But I just can't being to emphasize enough how little bearing the actual 40 time in and of itself matters. At least matters for me and what appears to be the actual results on the field.

Its not so much a Dobbins can't have success if he doesn't run 4.45, its that I think he'll fall in the draft, because of a lower than expected size/speed combo. Also, speed is a trump card he has over guys like Moss and Swift. If he can't outrun them, it calls to question why he'd get drafted over them, since Moss is a much better tackle breaker, and Swift is a better receiver. Taylor needs a better time too, as he doesn't add anything as a pass catcher. 

Despite where they finished fantasy wise, I don't think anyone would call Marlon Mack or Philip Lindsay top-15 NFL RB's. Maybe I'm posting in the wrong thread, but this time of year, I'm not really concerned with fantasy value, so much as NFL value, and with that in mind, the point is, the RB class is pretty tightly grouped, and 40 time could very well make a big difference in separating who gets drafted highest.

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7 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Its not so much a Dobbins can't have success if he doesn't run 4.45, its that I think he'll fall in the draft, because of a lower than expected size/speed combo. Also, speed is a trump card he has over guys like Moss and Swift. If he can't outrun them, it calls to question why he'd get drafted over them, since Moss is a much better tackle breaker, and Swift is a better receiver. Taylor needs a better time too, as he doesn't add anything as a pass catcher. 

Despite where they finished fantasy wise, I don't think anyone would call Marlon Mack or Philip Lindsay top-15 NFL RB's. Maybe I'm posting in the wrong thread, but this time of year, I'm not really concerned with fantasy value, so much as NFL value, and with that in mind, the point is, the RB class is pretty tightly grouped, and 40 time could very well make a big difference in separating who gets drafted highest.

Regarding the bolded:

I don't think the real actual NFL decision makers put nearly as much stock in the 40 time as some of you do. I mean we just saw a RB run a 4.62 pro day go in round one as first RB off the board last year.

I don't think I mentioned fantasy one time in my post so not sure why you keep saying all that stuff. That was actual simply the actual NFL rushing leaders I was referencing.

 

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11 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I don't think the real actual NFL decision makers put nearly as much stock in the 40 time as some of you do. I mean we just saw a RB run a 4.62 pro day go in round one as first RB off the board last year.

This is a huge point.  I think the people who are making NFL-level decisions understand the difference between running in pajamas and running in full pads on an actual field.

For several years now it has been my belief that the NFL Combine is a way for savvy teams to trick the ####ty teams into thinking that these drills matter.

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15 minutes ago, travdogg said:

My mistake, when you said top-15, I assumed you meant fantasy wise. 

No problem.

Just trying to point out I don't think the 40 is a very big deal in general. Either in terms of success or NFL draft capital. I even looked at stuff like runs over 20+ yards and could see zero correlation to speed.

Now I do think when you are exceptionally slow or exceptionally fast it makes a difference in how league views you. If you run a 4.68 40 you probably see your stock dip and evidence of success is way smaller. If Taylor comes out and runs a 4.35 or something like that I think that will increase his stock a little.  I just don't think teams in general put a lot of stock in it unless you are exceptionally or unordinarily fast or slow. For the RB position anyway.

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54 minutes ago, menobrown said:

No problem.

Just trying to point out I don't think the 40 is a very big deal in general. Either in terms of success or NFL draft capital. I even looked at stuff like runs over 20+ yards and could see zero correlation to speed.

Now I do think when you are exceptionally slow or exceptionally fast it makes a difference in how league views you. If you run a 4.68 40 you probably see your stock dip and evidence of success is way smaller. If Taylor comes out and runs a 4.35 or something like that I think that will increase his stock a little.  I just don't think teams in general put a lot of stock in it unless you are exceptionally or unordinarily fast or slow. For the RB position anyway.

I completely agree, but 4.45 is what he ran at the Opening as a 17 year old at 201 pounds.  If he's only 209 at his weigh in, and people thought he'd be heavier, then he kind of has to do better otherwise it's a knock.  

The average 40 time for a top10 fantasy RB in FFPC format 2016-2018 was 4.545.  It's not a bad thing if he is a bit slower than 4.45, but it does strike concerns for me.

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10 hours ago, menobrown said:

No problem.

Just trying to point out I don't think the 40 is a very big deal in general. Either in terms of success or NFL draft capital. I even looked at stuff like runs over 20+ yards and could see zero correlation to speed.

Now I do think when you are exceptionally slow or exceptionally fast it makes a difference in how league views you. If you run a 4.68 40 you probably see your stock dip and evidence of success is way smaller. If Taylor comes out and runs a 4.35 or something like that I think that will increase his stock a little.  I just don't think teams in general put a lot of stock in it unless you are exceptionally or unordinarily fast or slow. For the RB position anyway.

There is a correlation in 40 times and draft capital with RBs.

Tex

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