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Dynasty & Redraft: Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins 08.29.21 - MRI confirms torn ACL and Dobbins will miss the 2021 season


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I think he got a few extra snaps late with RG3. He was def involved early though. Ingram looked pretty bad. Not a ton of burst so Dobbins probably got a little extra because of that. The huge surprise was he was in inside the 5 at the expense of Ingram. Never would have seen that happening.

 

edit- to add that the runs inside the 5 were from 2 and 3 Wr sets. And from the 2 and 3 yard lines. They weren’t goal line power runs. That could be Ingram still.

Edited by Cobbler1
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On 9/14/2020 at 4:15 PM, Steeler said:

Was this due to the game script and having a big lead?  Or did that look like the plan from the start?

I am not entirely sure about the game flow aspect of this, I didnt watch the game but here are the snap counts.

P Ricard FB 23 39%

 J Dobbins RB 23 39%

M Ingram RB 21 36%

G Edwards RB 15 25%

No one got more than 40% of the snaps for the first game. Both Dobbins and Ingram were close to 40%

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I’m more excited about Dobbins in 2021.  Anything he does in 2020 is gravy.

I hear you - but why not now? This kid was a horse in college and has shown all of the skills of an elite back. Did you see the patience of him holding on the guards jersey to follow the block? Stats didn’t do his performance justice. Ravens want to win the SB this year. If he gives them the best shot he’ll get the job this year. I say he gets 10-15 carries a week. Ingram will be what he has been most of his career. A very good role player 

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On 9/14/2020 at 5:42 PM, Cobbler1 said:

I think he got a few extra snaps late with RG3. He was def involved early though. Ingram looked pretty bad. Not a ton of burst so Dobbins probably got a little extra because of that. The huge surprise was he was in inside the 5 at the expense of Ingram. Never would have seen that happening.

Do we think this could change next week though? I own both Ingram and Dobbins. Obviously played Ingram week 1. Week 2 I dont know what to do especially with coaches comments a week ago that things could change week to week.

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45 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

I hear you - but why not now? This kid was a horse in college and has shown all of the skills of an elite back. Did you see the patience of him holding on the guards jersey to follow the block? Stats didn’t do his performance justice. Ravens want to win the SB this year. If he gives them the best shot he’ll get the job this year. I say he gets 10-15 carries a week. Ingram will be what he has been most of his career. A very good role player 

Yeah, I noticed when he was a freshman. https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/763051-must-have-in-devy-leagues-jonathan-taylor-rb-wisc-j-k-dobbins-rb-osu/?tab=comments#comment-20630485

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31 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Do we think this could change next week though? I own both Ingram and Dobbins. Obviously played Ingram week 1. Week 2 I dont know what to do especially with coaches comments a week ago that things could change week to week.

Certainly could. Again they weren’t in goal line formations. Is this the lack of a 3rd TE (although Ricard can serve that role)? Or was it because the ball wasn’t quite at the goal line? It is because Cleveland was down several members of the secondary so they stayed 2 and 3 wide to put pressure on those less experienced players? Does Dobbins bring a quickness/vision element over Ingram? The interior of the line is considered a question mark with the retirement of Yanda, maybe they liked getting wide to the strength of the Tackles and TEs. Way too much to draw a conclusion on after just a game. But I was pretty surprised given how easily they played power football with Ingram/Lamar and won in short yardage situations last year.

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15 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Do we think this could change next week though? I own both Ingram and Dobbins. Obviously played Ingram week 1. Week 2 I dont know what to do especially with coaches comments a week ago that things could change week to week.

It's quite likely that both  RBs can thrive in this run-heavy offense.   It certainly worked in New Orleans when Ingram and Kamara were a tandem.   The Ravens will need to show that they will give Ingram goal-line opportunities;  given that he had 15 TDs last year he should see some.  Both guys should get around 15-17 touches a game in competitive matchups.    I think Gus Edwards' touches will be reduced.   

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

FantasyPros says his current dynasty value is worth approximately the same as Antonio Gibson, who is rookie 13 overall.

A 3rd is an insult

No way do you sniff a first rookie pick for Ingram. Fantasy Pros chart? Not a real gauge of value, frankly. He was a two coming into the year, a three about now. 

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2 hours ago, dcgangstas said:

It's quite likely that both  RBs can thrive in this run-heavy offense.   It certainly worked in New Orleans when Ingram and Kamara were a tandem.   The Ravens will need to show that they will give Ingram goal-line opportunities;  given that he had 15 TDs last year he should see some.  Both guys should get around 15-17 touches a game in competitive matchups.    I think Gus Edwards' touches will be reduced.   

I disagree. The reason it worked in NO is because they threw the ball to their RBs a ton and their QB was a non-factor in the rushing game. Complete opposite of Baltimore.

All of the Ravens RBs combined averaged like 27 touches per game last year, no way will both Ingram and Dobbins get 15-17 touches per game most of the time even if they phase Gus out completely. I also expect plenty of non-competitive games this year, which is probably bad for Ingram and good for Dobbins.

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2 hours ago, humpback said:

I disagree. The reason it worked in NO is because they threw the ball to their RBs a ton and their QB was a non-factor in the rushing game. Complete opposite of Baltimore.

All of the Ravens RBs combined averaged like 27 touches per game last year, no way will both Ingram and Dobbins get 15-17 touches per game most of the time even if they phase Gus out completely. I also expect plenty of non-competitive games this year, which is probably bad for Ingram and good for Dobbins.

Mark Ingrams efficiency stats improved with the Ravens compared to the Saints, so I would say the Ravens offense is more beneficial to him than the Saints offense was. The Saints being a good offense and still good for a RB just not as good as the effect that Lamar Jackson has on a defense which Ingram and the other RB benefit from.

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Mark Ingrams efficiency stats improved with the Ravens compared to the Saints, so I would say the Ravens offense is more beneficial to him than the Saints offense was. The Saints being a good offense and still good for a RB just not as good as the effect that Lamar Jackson has on a defense which Ingram and the other RB benefit from.

That may be true, but we're talking fantasy and we don't get points per efficiency stats. The Ravens throw to their RBs WAY less than NO did, and Lamar sucks up so many carries and TDs, that I don't believe there is room for 2 RBs to thrive like they could in NO.

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2 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

So a 3rd is right in line since Gibson ain't jack yet. Now let's agree to disagree

Gibson was a mid to high 2nd round pick. His value hasn’t dropped to a 3rd just after 1 week. A 2nd would be very appropriate for Ingram, whose value also didn’t drop to a 3rd just after 1 week.

I get it. You try to get the best value you can, and often seem to hold out for way more value than your players/picks really are, based on trades you’ve posted here lately. That can definitely work with some players and leagues, but just because you might get your league to pay your prices, it doesn’t mean that’s the consensus price. A third is way lower than he is really worth. 

 

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24 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

Gibson was a mid to high 2nd round pick. His value hasn’t dropped to a 3rd just after 1 week. A 2nd would be very appropriate for Ingram, whose value also didn’t drop to a 3rd just after 1 week.

I can't fathom a rookie, in a COVID abbreviated off-season, who had very little college experience, on a team loaded with question marks, would go in the second round.

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Just now, DropKick said:

I can't fathom a rookie, in a COVID abbreviated off-season, who had very little college experience, on a team loaded with question marks, would go in the second round.

Sure he did. Gibson went in the second round often. He went 3.4 in ours in May/June (whenever it was) but he was in the second round a lot as the year progressed in the later dynasty rookie drafts.

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4 minutes ago, DropKick said:

I can't fathom a rookie, in a COVID abbreviated off-season, who had very little college experience, on a team loaded with question marks, would go in the second round.

Rookie drafts... since the OP was talking about a trade with rookie draft picks

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

Sure he did. Gibson went in the second round often. He went 3.4 in ours in May/June (whenever it was) but he was in the second round a lot as the year progressed in the later dynasty rookie drafts.

Perhaps my mistake... I thought we were talking redraft with the Ingram references.

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24 minutes ago, DropKick said:

Perhaps my mistake... I thought we were talking redraft with the Ingram references.

Yeah, I think we're on two separate pages. The OP in question is about dynasty, if I'm not mistaken. A second in redraft on Gibson would certainly give one pause and room to wonder, that's for sure.

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, I think we're on two separate pages. The OP in question is about dynasty, if I'm not mistaken. A second in redraft on Gibson would certainly give one pause and room to wonder, that's for sure.

We had a guy take him at 1.02 in a rookie draft (which let me land Taylor & Dobbins) so I know the hype machine can be out of control.

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45 minutes ago, DropKick said:

We had a guy take him at 1.02 in a rookie draft (which let me land Taylor & Dobbins) so I know the hype machine can be out of control.

oh wow yeah that's bad. i was reading through and about to say i got him back in may at 2.04 in a rookie draft and got roasted for it. 1.02 is insane to me. i like him but come on.

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3 hours ago, humpback said:

That may be true, but we're talking fantasy and we don't get points per efficiency stats. The Ravens throw to their RBs WAY less than NO did, and Lamar sucks up so many carries and TDs, that I don't believe there is room for 2 RBs to thrive like they could in NO.

You may be right about that.

One of the efficiency stats that improved for Ingram with Baltimore is his TD.  5 of Ingrams 10 career receiving TD occurred last year with the Ravens. He scored 15 TD in total. Best of his career last year and finished as RB 11 in PPR scoring. He was Rb 6 overall in 2017 with the Saints. He did see double the targets with NO in 3 of his seasons there compared to the 29 he had with the Ravens last season.

I dont think the offense can support two RB for fantasy in the same way as the Saints have before either though. Much of Ingrams fantasy value from last season was because of the 15 TD and if Dobbins continues to be used in these situations that isn't going to happen for him in 2020. 

Ingram had 8.5 yards per target with Jackson last year which is good for a WR and much better than his career ypt of 5.8

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Baltimore fan here.

I wouldn't put much predictive stock in what happened last week.

Cleveland sold out completely to stop the run (seemed like they had 9 guys in the box several times), which was an interesting choice with a banged up secondary. It worked, I guess, as the Ravens' RBs didn't do much yardage-wise. The passing game made them pay for that choice, though, and the game was over at halftime. Baltimore just played footsie the last 30 minutes to end it and go home.

There was no rhythm to the Ravens' run game. Honestly, it seemed like a preseason game. I have no clue what to make of Dobbins getting the GL carries. Again, it was an odd game.

All of that is to say....... who knows? My best guess is that Dobbins is the most talented RB they have, but I don't have a feel yet for his blocking (a must in this system). They already know what they have in Ingram - a smart vet who can still play and knows this is probably his last season on this contract. I suspect the Ravens are going to "load share" Ingram as much as possible.

In a 12 team with somewhere around 16-18 roster spots, both are probably worth rostering at this point but I expect it's going to drive owners crazy for a good part of the year knowing whether to start one of them.

 

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31 minutes ago, Uruk-Hai said:

Baltimore fan here.

I wouldn't put much predictive stock in what happened last week.

Cleveland sold out completely to stop the run (seemed like they had 9 guys in the box several times), which was an interesting choice with a banged up secondary. It worked, I guess, as the Ravens' RBs didn't do much yardage-wise. The passing game made them pay for that choice, though, and the game was over at halftime. Baltimore just played footsie the last 30 minutes to end it and go home.

There was no rhythm to the Ravens' run game. Honestly, it seemed like a preseason game. I have no clue what to make of Dobbins getting the GL carries. Again, it was an odd game.

All of that is to say....... who knows? My best guess is that Dobbins is the most talented RB they have, but I don't have a feel yet for his blocking (a must in this system). They already know what they have in Ingram - a smart vet who can still play and knows this is probably his last season on this contract. I suspect the Ravens are going to "load share" Ingram as much as possible.

In a 12 team with somewhere around 16-18 roster spots, both are probably worth rostering at this point but I expect it's going to drive owners crazy for a good part of the year knowing whether to start one of them.

 

Good info.   Love this kind of analysis 

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He was the perfect trade candidate this week to the Ingram owner who wants to lock up that backfield.

I sent him for Allen Robinson. In 14-16 team leagues it's probably fine to roster both and potentially start both as well I reckon. But he was an easy sell high for me. The optics of his fantasy score don't quite tell the story.

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45 minutes ago, Wigglytuff's Gruff said:

He was the perfect trade candidate this week to the Ingram owner who wants to lock up that backfield.

I sent him for Allen Robinson. In 14-16 team leagues it's probably fine to roster both and potentially start both as well I reckon. But he was an easy sell high for me. The optics of his fantasy score don't quite tell the story.

If redraft I don't blame you, but if it's a dynasty league you made a bad move IMO

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1 hour ago, Uruk-Hai said:

Baltimore fan here.

I wouldn't put much predictive stock in what happened last week.

Cleveland sold out completely to stop the run (seemed like they had 9 guys in the box several times), which was an interesting choice with a banged up secondary. It worked, I guess, as the Ravens' RBs didn't do much yardage-wise. The passing game made them pay for that choice, though, and the game was over at halftime. Baltimore just played footsie the last 30 minutes to end it and go home.

There was no rhythm to the Ravens' run game. Honestly, it seemed like a preseason game. I have no clue what to make of Dobbins getting the GL carries. Again, it was an odd game.

All of that is to say....... who knows? My best guess is that Dobbins is the most talented RB they have, but I don't have a feel yet for his blocking (a must in this system). They already know what they have in Ingram - a smart vet who can still play and knows this is probably his last season on this contract. I suspect the Ravens are going to "load share" Ingram as much as possible.

In a 12 team with somewhere around 16-18 roster spots, both are probably worth rostering at this point but I expect it's going to drive owners crazy for a good part of the year knowing whether to start one of them.

 

I agree.  way too small of a sample size in 1 game.

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On 9/15/2020 at 3:54 PM, Biabreakable said:

I am not entirely sure about the game flow aspect of this, I didnt watch the game but here are the snap counts.

P Ricard FB 23 39%

 J Dobbins RB 23 39%

M Ingram RB 21 36%

G Edwards RB 15 25%

No one got more than 40% of the snaps for the first game. Both Dobbins and Ingram were close to 40%

I wonder if this was due to the lack of an offseason and more about getting the guy’s legs under them to start. This could become a  more concentrated RB game moving forward. 

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11 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

You may be right about that.

One of the efficiency stats that improved for Ingram with Baltimore is his TD.  5 of Ingrams 10 career receiving TD occurred last year with the Ravens. He scored 15 TD in total. Best of his career last year and finished as RB 11 in PPR scoring. He was Rb 6 overall in 2017 with the Saints. He did see double the targets with NO in 3 of his seasons there compared to the 29 he had with the Ravens last season.

I dont think the offense can support two RB for fantasy in the same way as the Saints have before either though. Much of Ingrams fantasy value from last season was because of the 15 TD and if Dobbins continues to be used in these situations that isn't going to happen for him in 2020. 

Ingram had 8.5 yards per target with Jackson last year which is good for a WR and much better than his career ypt of 5.8

There's no doubt that being on the Ravens has some positives for Ingram, but again, I was responding to someone who said it's quite likely that both RBs can thrive in this offense like they did in NO. I disagree for the reasons already given.

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1 hour ago, humpback said:

@jeffzrebiec

22m

Greg Roman on dividing RB carries: "There's no exact science there. It's going to be different every week. We like to keep people guessing so it will happen the way it happens."

"We always want to be two steps ahead of our opponents. For instance, if we're at 1st-and-goal then the other team is likely thinking we're gonna put our best RB in the game. But we know that's what they're thinking so we won't do that... We'll just put in Ingram."

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1 hour ago, humpback said:

@jeffzrebiec

22m

Greg Roman on dividing RB carries: "There's no exact science there. It's going to be different every week. We like to keep people guessing so it will happen the way it happens."

Why would the other team give up crap which running back will play?  Seems like a useless detail if they all are capable.

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4 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

Agreed.   

 

Only thing I could think of to defend that statement would be that by putting Dobbins in last week near the GL and RUNNING both times, teams may not be able to assume a pass play is the likely play call based on which RB is in the lineup.  In other words, teams will have to treat both RB equally as far as guessing run v. pass.  IDK, just guessing here.

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4 hours ago, Mongidig said:

I wonder if this was due to the lack of an offseason and more about getting the guy’s legs under them to start. This could become a  more concentrated RB game moving forward. 

It certainly wasn't concentrated last season.  Snaps and touches got spread around amongst three RBs then too.  Ingram got almost all the TDs though.

Ingram 2019:

53% of Ravens' RB touches

55% of Ravens' RB yards

79% of Ravens' RB TDs

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37 minutes ago, chad in Indy said:

Only thing I could think of to defend that statement would be that by putting Dobbins in last week near the GL and RUNNING both times, teams may not be able to assume a pass play is the likely play call based on which RB is in the lineup.  In other words, teams will have to treat both RB equally as far as guessing run v. pass.  IDK, just guessing here.

I hear you man but I really dont think other NFL coaches are going to that inception level of detail when they are game planning.  Seems like a complete waste of valuable time.

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1 hour ago, pantherclub said:

I hear you man but I really dont think other NFL coaches are going to that inception level of detail when they are game planning.  Seems like a complete waste of valuable time.

Trying to make inferences on play type based on the personnel on the field is inception level detail??  :lmao:  :lmao:  

Yeah, these coaches who spend 18-20 hrs at the facility going over game film and trying to find any slight edge, they just can't be bothered with something as silly as that.

Good lord dude.

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4 minutes ago, coyote5 said:

Trying to make inferences on play type based on the personnel on the field is inception level detail??  :lmao:  :lmao:  

Yeah, these coaches who spend 18-20 hrs at the facility going over game film and trying to find any slight edge, they just can't be bothered with something as silly as that.

Good lord dude.

 

1 hour ago, Wigglytuff's Gruff said:

Redraft my man. 

I like the trade for you,  but there’s a slight chance Dobbins takes over this season and goes bananas. 

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6 minutes ago, coyote5 said:

Trying to make inferences on play type based on the personnel on the field is inception level detail??  :lmao:  :lmao:  

Yeah, these coaches who spend 18-20 hrs at the facility going over game film and trying to find any slight edge, they just can't be bothered with something as silly as that.

Good lord dude.

It’s fine the disagree but no need to be a 🔧

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11 hours ago, One said:

 

I like the trade for you,  but there’s a slight chance Dobbins takes over this season and goes bananas. 

There is indeed. But my stable doesn't look any less formidable without him and needed the WR depth.

My plan when I drafted him was always to flip him for a receiver which I was unable to obtain earlier on in the draft due to loading up on runners.

I personally think that backfield remains murky all season without an injury. Frustrating having to gamble on it being 'your guys' week. Much better for an Ingram owner to have Dobbins and start them both.

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Quote

J.K. Dobbins rushed two times for 48 yards, catching one ball for 13 yards in Baltimore's Week 2 win over the Texans.

Dobbins was out-carried 10 to 2 by Gus Edwards and 9 to 2 from Mark Ingram but still averaged 20.3 yards per touch on his limited work. His lone highlight was a 44-yard sprint up the middle as Baltimore simply gashed Houston to cruise to 2-0 on the season. We expect Dobbins to be used more as a thin FLEX play in Baltimore's Week 3 showdown against the Chiefs.

Sep 20, 2020, 9:03 PM ET

 

 

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1 hour ago, massraider said:

Little bummed by his snaps. I drafted him to be Lamar's 1A RB for next 5 years, but got a little greedy.

Any injury by either of these guys, and the other back might win some leagues. 

A lot of people did.    I took Ingram in the 5th round and Dobbins in the 7th in my 12-team league to solidify the hold on that backfield.   

It appears that just like in Indy, it's going to take an unfortunate injury to someone to clear this cluster up.    Dobbins is so explosive though;  he darned near took that long 44-yard run to the house, making a great one-cut.   

Edited by dcgangstas
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8 minutes ago, dcgangstas said:

A lot of people did.    I took Ingram in the 5th round and Dobbins in the 7th in my 12-team league to solidify the hold on that backfield.   

It appears that just like in Indy, it's going to take an unfortunate injury to someone to clear this cluster up.    Dobbins is so explosive though;  he darned near took that long 44-yard run to the house, making a great one-cut.   

it's just a matter of time until Dobbins either plays himself into the role, an injury....they aren't going to be able to keep that skill down all season.  The lopsided game scripts haven't helped his cause either.  

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  • Faust changed the title to Dynasty & Redraft: Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins 08.29.21 - MRI confirms torn ACL and Dobbins will miss the 2021 season

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