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Dynasty & Redraft: Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins 08.29.21 - MRI confirms torn ACL and Dobbins will miss the 2021 season


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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

Dobbins is my RB1 right now for reasons outlined in the Swift vs Taylor thread 

It's interesting. Perhaps I'm being stubborn, but I still have Swift as my preferred back, with Dobbins second. I'm more and more convinced that Taylor, despite his ADP and skyrocketing relative value (I still can't figure out how he's worth more than pick number one, but that's just me) is going to be a two-down back wherever he goes. I'm sort of trying to shed my 1.01. I couldn't find a taker that had three picks in the first, so I'm resigned to making the 1.01 a pick. I may go WR.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

It's interesting. Perhaps I'm being stubborn, but I still have Swift as my preferred back, with Dobbins second. I'm more and more convinced that Taylor, despite his ADP and skyrocketing relative value (I still can't figure out how he's worth more than pick number one, but that's just me) is going to be a two-down back wherever he goes. I'm sort of trying to shed my 1.01. I couldn't find a taker that had three picks in the first, so I'm resigned to making the 1.01 a pick. I may go WR.

 

 

Try moving back to 1.03 and pick up a 2nd or back to 1.04/1.05 for a 2021 1st after the nfl draft. You don’t have to get 3 firsts if the guy you covet is available a couple picks later and you can afford to move back. You may even find someone willing to overpay for the 1.01 post nfl draft.

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12 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Try moving back to 1.03 and pick up a 2nd or back to 1.04/1.05 for a 2021 1st after the nfl draft. You don’t have to get 3 firsts if the guy you covet is available a couple picks later and you can afford to move back. You may even find someone willing to overpay for the 1.01 post nfl draft.

Yeah, people have said try post-draft. I should say that I didn't try to get three firsts. I tried to get one of them. In the end, I offered 1.01, 2.01, 2.07 for 1.06, 1.10, 2.04, and 2.06. So I would have taken the proverbial bath. And I tried today because I wanted to know what to expect for the draft. The person was interested in keeping the equity and not moving up. Picks, not position for him. Oh well. Then again, he just wrote me and said maybe we could revisit. That'd be swell by me. 

The thing is is that I have a receiver at the top that should not go #1. I should be trading down and picking up extras, but can't seem to find a suitable partner for it.

But this is a wild digression from Dobbins, but it's him vis a vis the state of the draft, I guess.

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, people have said try post-draft. I should say that I didn't try to get three firsts. I tried to get one of them. In the end, I offered 1.01, 2.01, 2.07 for 1.06, 1.10, 2.04, and 2.06. So I would have taken the proverbial bath and still got rejected. I tried today because I wanted to know what to expect for the draft. The person was interested in keeping the equity and not moving up. Picks, not position for him. Oh well.

Sad thing is is that I have a receiver at the top that should not go #1. I should be trading down and picking up extras, but can't seem to find a suitable partner for it.

But this is a wild digression from Dobbins, but it's him vis a vis the state of the draft, I guess.

Still slow season a couple weeks pre draft so a few helpful posts to someone taking the dynasty plunge should be understood- it’s what this place is for, right? See where the players fall, see what your 1st tier looks like, and take what you can get while staying inside that tier, unless you have a clear #1 you covet. 

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10 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

Weber was playing injured 2017, so Dobbins got the bulk. The team wanted to do more of an even split in 2018 and neither of them ever really got into a rhythm. Lots of blame to go around- program dysfunction, poor o line play, but JK said it himself - we just didn't play well. 

I remember being less than impressed with Weber & wondering why he was 1a.  My opinion was they were concerned by Dobbins' youth despite him looking like the better player.   Maybe it was pass pro, maybe it was maturity, maybe it was pecking order, maybe it was coaches' decision or dysfunction.  

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59 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

These were the top 5. I got it from this podcast:

https://twitter.com/paulie23ny/status/1247907719174139905?s=19

He has a website: www.yardscreated.com but it's not ready yet for 2020 backs 

I had to struggle pretty hard to get past the lisp... 

Interesting. I heard a very similar idea, a few weeks back, I can't recall where, but it had a very different list. It was:

1. Javon Leake

2. Zack Moss

3. JK Dobbins

4. Jonathan Taylor

5. Cam Akers

Which made me think this list was just limited to those 5 RB's.

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Like others with high picks I have overanalyzed the top RBs to death but I keep coming back to the feeling that Dobbins is the one guy I have few doubts about. I don’t know what that’ll mean for what I actually do (I have multiple high picks in one league). With caveats for landing spot aside, he checks boxes that Swift doesn’t (productivity/offensive centerpiece) and that Taylor may not (ppr value). 

Edited by DAG
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Quote

Ravens selected Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins with the No. 55 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

This is suddenly a very crowded backfield between Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and now Dobbins. Of course, the rookie should see a handful of touches per game at a minimum. Dobbins (5’9/209) was a three-year starter who broke the Ohio State rushing record (2,003 yards) as a true junior last season, finishing his collegiate career with a hefty 796 touches from scrimmage. Although he declined to participate in on-field workouts with a lingering ankle injury at Indy's combine, he previously tested as a 99th-percentile SPARQ freak at Nike's 'Opening Finals' drills out of high school. Dobbins led this class in 20-plus yard gains (20) on the ground, finding the end zone a whopping 21 times due to his speed and power as a true three-down bell-cow. He also has proven upside as a receiver given his 22 receptions in all three years with the Buckeyes. An elusive runner in space, Dobbins profiles as an every-down Offensive Rookie of the Year contender if he can surpass Ingram on the depth chart sooner rather than later.

SOURCE: Armando Salguero on Twitter

Apr 24, 2020, 8:49 PM ET

 

 

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Maybe you guys approach this differently, but I rarely draft players with year one in mind. Anyone I draft is not an intended week 1 starter. They're backups. So I'm much more driven by what I think these players will be year 2 than year 1. 

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15 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Maybe you guys approach this differently, but I rarely draft players with year one in mind. Anyone I draft is not an intended week 1 starter. They're backups. So I'm much more driven by what I think these players will be year 2 than year 1. 

Agreed.  But I’m also nervous as hell to spend a top 4-6 pick on a RB that has to sit, even with his late 2nd round draft capital at pick 55.  Think about the price the Rams paid to move up to 70 and grab Darrell Henderson.  A year later it plays out how everyone hopes, Gurley is gone, then the draft hits and poof, Henderson’s value is down the crapper.

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1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

Agreed.  But I’m also nervous as hell to spend a top 4-6 pick on a RB that has to sit, even with his late 2nd round draft capital at pick 55.  Think about the price the Rams paid to move up to 70 and grab Darrell Henderson.  A year later it plays out how everyone hopes, Gurley is gone, then the draft hits and poof, Henderson’s value is down the crapper.

Dobbins isn't gonna sit. He's a substantially better prospect than Henderson. And as much as it pains me to write - the Ravens have history on their side when it comes to the draft. They come in with a plan, adapt to what happens around them, execute, and it works out at a greater rate than their competition. 

I'm not in a draft position to concern myself with it, but I can't imagine I would rank him below #3. 

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5 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Dobbins isn't gonna sit. He's a substantially better prospect than Henderson. And as much as it pains me to write - the Ravens have history on their side when it comes to the draft. They come in with a plan, adapt to what happens around them, execute, and it works out at a greater rate than their competition. 

I'm not in a draft position to concern myself with it, but I can't imagine I would rank him below #3. 

Maybe that’s where my disconnect with Dobbins lies.  Never really got on board with him as anything close to a late 1st/early 2nd prospect.  

But you’re right, I trust the Ravens a bit more than if he had went late 2nd to an organization like the Dolphins.  Still wouldn’t floor me to see that same great organization take a complete game breaker like Etienne late in the 1st next year.

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Dobbins is fighting with Swift for rb3 for me

All I listened to and read this offseason was how many teams may go RB with the intention of letting them sit for 2021, considering 2021 is a weaker class at rb. It came true. 

Detroit, Indy, Baltimore all drafted a RB for 2021. GREAT spots. I couldnt be more excited about this top 4. You honestly couldn't have found better LONG term spots for the top 4 RBs. 

Dobbins was my 1.01 before the draft. He didn't fall, rather 2 RBs landed in exceptional spots. 

I couldn't be more excited to have 2 of these 4 and not really care which 2 I get! 

I really like Dobbins's game. He was number two for me. His landing spot and the others really aren't that great though. Miami and Tampa and KC were the spots to land, IMHO. Clear sailing ahead.  I'm more confused than ever about 1.01, but at least I have six days to figure it out. 

I've got it CEH, Taylor, Swift, Dobbins, though you could switch Swift and Dobbins and I wouldn't argue too much. They're my favorite pure backs in the draft. 

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I love Dobbins and think this was a phenomenal pick by the Ravens but this is a definite RBBC for at least a year and maybe two...Ingram is too good to not play, Edwards is good enough to be a bit of a fantasy nuisance and Hill is a wildcard...while this has BPA written all over it I am going to take this as a reflection that they don't have too much faith in Hill...I really liked him this time last year but he did not look like anything special with his limited touches and with Dobbins now onboard he almost has no path to fantasy relevance...I carried him all last year but right now he is on my dropping block when I have to cut down my roster in late August.

Edited by Boston
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5 minutes ago, Boston said:

I love Dobbins and think this was a phenomenal pick by the Ravens but this is a definite RBBC for at least a year and maybe two...Ingram is too good to not play, Edwards is good enough to be a bit of a fantasy nuisance and Hill is a wildcard...while this has BPA written all over it I am going to take this as a reflection that they don't have too much faith in Hill...I really liked him this time last year but he did not look like anything special with his limited touches and with Dobbins now onboard he almost has no path to fantasy relevance...I carried him all last year but right now he is on my dropping block when I have to cut down my roster in late August.

I would be very surprised if Edwards or Hill factor into this at all. The former may not even make the 53. 

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24 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I would be very surprised if Edwards or Hill factor into this at all. The former may not even make the 53. 

I think Edwards is a great depth back...low money, low mileage, he has had over 700 yards both of his years with a 5.2 and 5.3 YPC...he is definitely behind JKD and Ingram but as I said I believe he is good enough to pull away some stats in 2020 that while not being too big could put a little dent into a situation that may already be a full blown RBBC.

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Ingram has two years left on his contract. I don't know what his cap hit is if he gets cut after the next season but, if Dobbins is as good as advertised, I could see Baltimore letting him go after 2020.

Edwards is signed through the next season. I can't imagine there will be much of a market for him and could see him re-signing with the Ravens.

Hill flashed last year, but he can't block. I think he can be pretty good, but I'm not sure he's a great fit in Baltimore and what they are doing.

Lamar Jackson still has 3 years (2 more plus the 1st round option for a 3rd) left on his rookie contract - that's why the Ravens traded back into the 1st round to get him.  3 of their top 4 WRs are going to be on rookie contracts for at least two more years. Same with Mark Andrews.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that Dobbins has a clear path in about a year to be the #1 RB on a dynamic (& cheap) offense,  meaning the Ravens can spend in FA to plug holes elsewhere - also meaning they'll be good and in just about every game. 

If I were drafting in dynasty, I'd take Dobbins as the #2 RB and not look back.

 

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20 minutes ago, Boston said:

I think Edwards is a great depth back...low money, low mileage, he has had over 700 yards both of his years with a 5.2 and 5.3 YPC...he is definitely behind JKD and Ingram but as I said I believe he is good enough to pull away some stats in 2020 that while not being too big could put a little dent into a situation that may already be a full blown RBBC.

Finding room for 4 backs on a 53 is difficult. His not providing any value in the passing game is why I think he could be a bubble candidate. 

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Just now, MAC_32 said:

Finding room for 4 backs on a 53 is difficult. His not providing any value in the passing game is why I think he could be a bubble candidate. 

I can see that and if it happens I think it helps the fantasy situation here...he is a back that every time I watch I like and is making squat (and this is a team committed to the run)...nothing special but he always gets positive yards...as for Hill it is probably too early for the Ravens to give up on him but I was highly unimpressed with him last year and he was a guy I really targeted going into the season.

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I have Dobbins and Taylor basically even.  Mack seems less of a barrier than Ingram though only by a bit. As mentioned above Ingram could be cut before his contract expires and he’s starting to age out a bit. The fact that IND moved up for Taylor, has seemed hesitant to extend Mack, and has an elite offensive line are all big pluses. At the same time how long does Rivers have left (and how good is he going to be)? And Hines may get a lot of 3rd down duty. 
 

Dobbins and CEH are the two RBs who went to excellent franchises with young elite QBs and both add ppr value. For me there’s not really a wrong choice among CEH/Taylor/Dobbins. 

Edited by DAG
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6 minutes ago, DAG said:

I have Dobbins and Taylor basically even.  Mack seems less of a barrier than Ingram though only by a bit. As mentioned above Ingram could be cut before his contract expires and he’s starting to age out a bit. The fact that IND moved up for Taylor, has seemed hesitant to extend Mack, and has an elite offensive line are all big pluses. At the same time how long does Rivers have left (and how good is he going to be)? And Hines may get a lot of 3rd down duty. 
 

Dobbins and CEH are the two RBs who went to excellent franchises with young elite QBs and both add ppr value. For me there’s not really a wrong choice among CEH/Taylor/Dobbins. 

FWIW Mack is a free agent after the season. 

Edited by MAC_32
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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I currently rank the RBs

Taylor / Standard/  CEH PPR

CEH / Standard / Taylor PPR

Dobbins - lIke his long term possibilities over Swift and Akers

Swift

Akers

 

I'm with you. 

When I started writing out my rankings I came up with the same rankings as you have here. 

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8 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I currently rank the RBs

Taylor / Standard/  CEH PPR

CEH / Standard / Taylor PPR

Dobbins - lIke his long term possibilities over Swift and Akers

Swift

Akers

 

Kind of where I am right now but I loved Swift and it’ll be hard for me to pass him over. The draft made them all a lot closer together than 2 months ago for me. 

Edited by voiceofunreason
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29 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Not one comment on Lamar vulturing goal-line TD's?  If Jackson weren't there I'd be on board with him as RB3 but Dobbins might not score 6 rushing TD's in a season.

How are you ranking the RBs? I’ve been struggling with all these guys.

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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

Not one comment on Lamar vulturing goal-line TD's?  If Jackson weren't there I'd be on board with him as RB3 but Dobbins might not score 6 rushing TD's in a season.

Mark Ingram scored 15 total TD's last year

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1 hour ago, Dez said:

Mark Ingram scored 15 total TD's last year

Beat me to it.  Not to mention, one would think that Lamar will ideally run less and less as he keeps growing as a passer and to also extend his career some.  He will still run a lot and vulture TDs but if that offense is clicking on all cylinders, plenty of food to go around.  

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7 minutes ago, Pipes said:

Yes.  Mainly because I hate Swifts landing spot.

I have to agree.

While he ranks #3 to me in this class, it would not surprise me at all if in 3 years Dobbins is the #1 back in this group. Ravens are totally stacked and Ingram's got some miles on him.

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  • Faust changed the title to Dynasty & Redraft: Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins 08.29.21 - MRI confirms torn ACL and Dobbins will miss the 2021 season

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