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Dynasty & Redraft: Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins 08.29.21 - MRI confirms torn ACL and Dobbins will miss the 2021 season


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On 4/25/2020 at 9:48 PM, Hankmoody said:

Not one comment on Lamar vulturing goal-line TD's?  If Jackson weren't there I'd be on board with him as RB3 but Dobbins might not score 6 rushing TD's in a season.

I am very much interested in getting the lead back in the Ravens offense. TD vulture or not. 

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5 minutes ago, massraider said:

I am very much interested in getting the lead back in the Ravens offense. TD vulture or not. 

:goodposting:

The Ravens outscored the 2nd highest offense in 2019 by 42 points. The Ravens typically gave Ingram a 50-60% snap count and around 15 touches/game at a very consistent rate. He scored 12 times and finished as a RB1 despite only breaking two plays over than 30 yards all season.

I think that's Dobbins' floor.

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Dobbins has no workout numbers, but........

Quote

Steve Wiltfong, Director of Recruiting for 247Sports, believes that existing numbers for Dobbins are already more than enough to show NFL scouts, coaches and executives that is one of the most athletic running backs that this class has to offer.

"Dobbins was a unique athlete, the most athletic prospect in his class (out of high school) if you’re going off the Sparq Rating from what was then Nike Football’s The Opening Finals," Wiltfong said. "He laid down a blistering fast 4.45 40-yard dash with a 4.09 shuttle and a 43-1 inch vertical (I’m always suspect of those verticals, but still) at a listed 5-foot-10, 201-pounds.

 

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Yeah I drastically underestimated the size of the Ravens' offense.  So the only real concerns are sustainability and Dobbins' share in the short term.  Even assuming they can sustain that offense, how much of it does Dobbins get over the next 1-3 years?   How long does Ingram keep his ceiling capped?  It seems each of Dobbins, Swift, and Akers have this same question and whoever gets those answers right is gonna win some titles.

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Ingram has been one of my favorite players to own in dynasty. One of the most versatile, efficient and consistent RBs over the last 5 years and has held practically no value with non-owners the entire time.

I think this will be the last year he's startable. To me it has the feel of a 50/50 split to keep Ingram fresh and let Dobbins ease in. I think both will be starting on fantasy teams throughout the year and take turns getting in the end zone week to week.

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33 minutes ago, Apple Juice said:

Ingram has been one of my favorite players to own in dynasty. One of the most versatile, efficient and consistent RBs over the last 5 years and has held practically no value with non-owners the entire time.

I think this will be the last year he's startable. To me it has the feel of a 50/50 split to keep Ingram fresh and let Dobbins ease in. I think both will be starting on fantasy teams throughout the year and take turns getting in the end zone week to week.

Baltimore has easy out on Ingram after this season.

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3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Yeah I drastically underestimated the size of the Ravens' offense.  So the only real concerns are sustainability and Dobbins' share in the short term.  Even assuming they can sustain that offense, how much of it does Dobbins get over the next 1-3 years?   How long does Ingram keep his ceiling capped?  It seems each of Dobbins, Swift, and Akers have this same question and whoever gets those answers right is gonna win some titles.

I expect Taylor and CEH to be taken at 1.02, and to have the above decision to make. 

The stability of the BAL franchise is appealing. 

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Quote

Will Brinson @WillBrinson

Ravens dip into analytics with their running back selection. Every single one of their RBs thrives running out of shotgun.

JK Dobbins 2nd most yards from gun last year in college per @SportsInfo_SIS

260 carries, 1755 yards, 18 TD, 6.8 ypc from shotgun

https://twitter.com/willbrinson/status/1253850995450355712?s=21

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On 4/27/2020 at 4:40 PM, massraider said:

I expect Taylor and CEH to be taken at 1.02, and to have the above decision to make. 

The stability of the BAL franchise is appealing. 

Good posting. I like dobbins, perhaps even as 1.02. I think the Lions will use swift frustratingly just as they used kerryon frustratingly in the past. Dobbins is a safe pick imo, and will split work in year 1. 

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I feel like Dobbins and Taylor are really close in value for many of the reasons stated above. Dobbins was one of my favorite players coming into the draft — worthy of top overall consideration imo based on talent, productivity, and additional ppr value - and he went to a top rushing offense with an elite, young QB. I have the 1.1 and 1.3 in a league where I’m rebuilding. For now I’m pretty set on CEH at 1.1 and expect Taylor to go 2. If he doesn’t and I’m faced with Taylor vs Dobbins I’m honestly going to be torn. 

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Mike Clay hates himself some JK All Day has him #11 on the dynasty rookie ranking list

 

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/28828241/2020-fantasy-football-top-80-rookie-rankings-dynasty-leagues

 

Top 80 Rookies For Dynasty Leagues

 

1. Clyde Edwards-HelaireRBLSURB1KC21-4

2. Jerry JeudyWRAlabamaWR1DEN21-4

3. CeeDee LambWROklahomaWR2DAL21-5

4. Jonathan TaylorRBWisconsinRB2IND21-7

5. Henry Ruggs IIIWRAlabamaWR3LV21-7

6. D'Andre SwiftRBGeorgiaRB3DET21-7

7. Tee HigginsWRClemsonWR4CIN21-7

8. Brandon AiyukWRArizona StateWR5SF22-5

9. Justin JeffersonWRLouisiana StateWR6MIN21-2

10. Jalen ReagorWRTCUWR7PHI21-8

11. J.K. DobbinsRBOhio StateRB4BAL21

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2 hours ago, Dez said:

Mike Clay hates himself some JK All Day has him #11 on the dynasty rookie ranking list

 

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/28828241/2020-fantasy-football-top-80-rookie-rankings-dynasty-leagues

 

Top 80 Rookies For Dynasty Leagues

 

1. Clyde Edwards-HelaireRBLSURB1KC21-4

2. Jerry JeudyWRAlabamaWR1DEN21-4

3. CeeDee LambWROklahomaWR2DAL21-5

4. Jonathan TaylorRBWisconsinRB2IND21-7

5. Henry Ruggs IIIWRAlabamaWR3LV21-7

6. D'Andre SwiftRBGeorgiaRB3DET21-7

7. Tee HigginsWRClemsonWR4CIN21-7

8. Brandon AiyukWRArizona StateWR5SF22-5

9. Justin JeffersonWRLouisiana StateWR6MIN21-2

10. Jalen ReagorWRTCUWR7PHI21-8

11. J.K. DobbinsRBOhio StateRB4BAL21

And Akers behind that. He obviously values wr in dynasty more. 

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3 hours ago, Dez said:

Mike Clay hates himself some JK All Day has him #11 on the dynasty rookie ranking list

 

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/28828241/2020-fantasy-football-top-80-rookie-rankings-dynasty-leagues

 

Top 80 Rookies For Dynasty Leagues

 

1. Clyde Edwards-HelaireRBLSURB1KC21-4

2. Jerry JeudyWRAlabamaWR1DEN21-4

3. CeeDee LambWROklahomaWR2DAL21-5

4. Jonathan TaylorRBWisconsinRB2IND21-7

5. Henry Ruggs IIIWRAlabamaWR3LV21-7

6. D'Andre SwiftRBGeorgiaRB3DET21-7

7. Tee HigginsWRClemsonWR4CIN21-7

8. Brandon AiyukWRArizona StateWR5SF22-5

9. Justin JeffersonWRLouisiana StateWR6MIN21-2

10. Jalen ReagorWRTCUWR7PHI21-8

11. J.K. DobbinsRBOhio StateRB4BAL21

CEH - talented player, first rb drafted, perfect situation, perfect scheme fit

Jeudy - could be the best player in the 2020 draft. 

Lamb - neck and neck with jeudy and paired with a nice young qb. Lot of moths to feed but his yac ability will make him an immediate producer.  

Taylor - talented,  but not enough to go in the first or even with the earlier of colts second round picks. Could share with mack.  Line is awesome but qb potentially unsettled going forward. 

Ruggs - could be tyreek without the baggage. Could be Derrius Heyward Bey. Should be their wr1 by default. 

Swift - name the last great lions running back for fantasy.  Add a head coach that likes committees and comes from the belichick coaching tree. If he's going to reach his full potential he will have to do it on his own

Higgins - talent, draft pedigree, paired with 1.1 and steps into a role where he will likely be the true wr1 long term.  

Aiyuk - underrated talent who could vault past deebo. Not my choice here - or close- but i know people are high on him.  

Jefferson - perfect spot to develop as their wr2 and emerge as their wr1 soon. Diggs gone thielen aging 

Raegor - might be their best wide receiver by October playing with a good young quarterback 

Dobbins - good talent, drafted to be their rb of the future. Sorry, i meant justice hill. Dobbins, on the other hand, is a good talent, drafted to be their rb of the future.  

Akers (not listed) - immediately one of the top 3 running backs for the rams. Remember how excited people were about Henderson.  Sometimes those guys pan out in year 2. Brown has had his moments.  Akers was not an early pick.  People are too high on him. 

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I like Mike Clay and I think he does really good work. I am guessing his updated projections for 2020 will look different than this ranking of the rookie players does.

I think he is wrong about Dobbins and should have him higher than that.

eta- Nope Clay has projected for the rookies already.

 

He has Dobbins with 90 rushing attempts and 18 receptions.

He has Ingram with 176 rushing attempts and 23 receptions.

Gus Edwards with 95 rushing attempts and 7 receptions.

Justice Hill 15 rushing attempts 7 receptions.

376 RB runs

Lamar Jackson 161 rushing attempts.

537 total rushing attempts.

Last season the Ravens had 420 RB runs and 576 total rushing attempts. 176 of those by Jackson.

The main difference I see here is that Clay has Lamar Jackson throwing the ball 60 more times than 2019 and running the ball 40 times less.

Edited by Biabreakable
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2020 NFL Draft: Varying QB philosophies among lessons learned

Excerpt:

Quote

Baltimore Ravens: RB J.K. Dobbins. It's hard to upgrade a running game that's already viewed as the best in the business, but Dobbins will give the Ravens' offense a little more explosiveness in the backfield. The 5-foot-9, 209-pound workhorse is a dynamic runner with exceptional vision, balance and body control. He finished his Ohio State career as the second-leading rusher in school history on the strength of a junior campaign that culminated in a 2,000-yard season while leading the Buckeyes into the College Football Playoffs. Despite the presence of Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and Justice Hillin the backfield, the addition of a blue-chip runner to a read-option attack spearheaded by the reigning MVP (Lamar Jackson) could make the Ravens' running game downright scary to defend in 2020.

 

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30 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Dobbins is insane. Easily RB3 this draft and had potential to be RB1 if he participated in the combine. His spot is more ideal than CEH's IMO

The more I watched of Dobbins run, the more I was pretty sure he was at least vying for the best back of the draft. I think I was wrong about CEH, too, so that's not a knock on him. Dobbins is just freakish.

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

The more I watched of Dobbins run, the more I was pretty sure he was at least vying for the best back of the draft. I think I was wrong about CEH, too, so that's not a knock on him. Dobbins is just freakish.

I agree.  The more I watch him, I think I'm returning him to the #2 behind Swift in my rankings.  I'm leery of guys who skip the combine.  I think if we had an athletic profile of guys like Trent Richardson and Devante Booker, they wouldn't have been over-drafted. However, when I watch Dobbins, I can't imagine him having a poor combine.  

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Taylor was one of the most successful college running backs in history and had a great Combine on top of it. He is the best RB prospect in this class. Also, IND has a great OL.  He can catch but Wisconsin doesn't ask backs to do that much.

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12 minutes ago, az_prof said:

Taylor was one of the most successful college running backs in history and had a great Combine on top of it. He is the best RB prospect in this class. Also, IND has a great OL.  He can catch but Wisconsin doesn't ask backs to do that much.

In spite of Taylor's college success and great combine, two RB prospects were drafted ahead of him.  For fantasy, I agree with those two prospects (CEH and Swift) and I'll add a third - J.K. Dobbins.  Taylor is #4 for me.

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1 hour ago, az_prof said:

Taylor was one of the most successful college running backs in history and had a great Combine on top of it. He is the best RB prospect in this class. Also, IND has a great OL.  He can catch but Wisconsin doesn't ask backs to do that much.

I get what you're saying but the pro scouts and those that did it for a living felt a little differently in their evaluations. A lot of it is catching the football, too. I'm not sure where they stand on these guys as pure ball carriers because they're not saying anything about it. Who's gonna denigrate him when they have to face him or, worse, possibility denigrate their own guy by saying something? We won't know exactly what they thought until they get fired.

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1 hour ago, az_prof said:

Taylor was one of the most successful college running backs in history and had a great Combine on top of it. He is the best RB prospect in this class. Also, IND has a great OL.  He can catch but Wisconsin doesn't ask backs to do that much.

Phillip Rivers does. So my guess is he outperforms a lot of people's expectations in PPR.

Edited by barackdhouse
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If you like Swift I'd wait a year and try to get him at a discount from his owner as I don't see big things from this year. I also don't have a lot of faith in Patricia, he is a patriot after all and we know how those backfields have turned out. They're great in best ball if you have the whole pie but a guessing game most of the time.

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On the Taylor/Dobbins debate I've been back and forth but tentatively have Dobbins as my #2 RB and Taylor as my #3. To me there's a razor thin margin between them. I only play in ppr so my thinking goes to targets as a dividing line but I'm not sure if there will be much of a difference there. From what I can tell off a quick scan of Roman's history as an OC he doesn't target RBs very often. I trust that there will be more RB targets in the IND offense, but I think Hines will siphon a decent number of those; he had 81 targets in 2018 and 58 last year, and I can see him remaining a 3rd down specialist.

Dobbins looks to have the better long-term picture with Jackson and an offense ideally suited for him. Taylor gets an elite offensive line, an excellent offensive head coach, but an aging declining Rivers and then some questions marks at QB moving forward. It's really close, but Dobbins in BAL is really appealing to me. 

Edited by DAG
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18 hours ago, rockaction said:

I get what you're saying but the pro scouts and those that did it for a living felt a little differently in their evaluations. A lot of it is catching the football, too. I'm not sure where they stand on these guys as pure ball carriers because they're not saying anything about it. Who's gonna denigrate him when they have to face him or, worse, possibility denigrate their own guy by saying something? We won't know exactly what they thought until they get fired.

If I'm asking myself which of these guys could have a HOF career, a multi-year Pro Bowler--there is only one--Taylor--that one could even entertain that question. His ceiling is so much higher.  And I would argue his floor is very solid too because Mack is no threat and IND has a great offensive line. 

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25 minutes ago, az_prof said:

If I'm asking myself which of these guys could have a HOF career, a multi-year Pro Bowler--there is only one--Taylor--that one could even entertain that question. His ceiling is so much higher.  And I would argue his floor is very solid too because Mack is no threat and IND has a great offensive line. 

Then we respectfully disagree. He may be a wonderful pro. I just don't think he looks that great, but what do I know? I'm no scout. 

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Interesting to me that CEH's selection solidified 1.1 overall, which I don't argue with, but Dobbins' spot doesn't lock him in the top 3. Because of Ingram? Anyone remember when Chubb fell because he was in a share with Hyde? This is eerily similar to me. 

DIfference is, Chubb was playing for the Browns. Dobbins landed on the Ravens. There's, ummm, a lot of fantasy points to be had in BAL.

Furthermore, if the Chiefs had drafted Duvernay, how bug would the discussion be? I feel like people aren't excited enough about BAL offense. 

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2 hours ago, massraider said:

Interesting to me that CEH's selection solidified 1.1 overall, which I don't argue with, but Dobbins' spot doesn't lock him in the top 3. Because of Ingram? Anyone remember when Chubb fell because he was in a share with Hyde? This is eerily similar to me. 

DIfference is, Chubb was playing for the Browns. Dobbins landed on the Ravens. There's, ummm, a lot of fantasy points to be had in BAL.

Furthermore, if the Chiefs had drafted Duvernay, how bug would the discussion be? I feel like people aren't excited enough about BAL offense. 

As a raging OSU homer it is very clear to me - Carlos Hyde has never been able to hold Ingram's jock.

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2 hours ago, massraider said:

Interesting to me that CEH's selection solidified 1.1 overall, which I don't argue with, but Dobbins' spot doesn't lock him in the top 3. Because of Ingram? Anyone remember when Chubb fell because he was in a share with Hyde? This is eerily similar to me. 

DIfference is, Chubb was playing for the Browns. Dobbins landed on the Ravens. There's, ummm, a lot of fantasy points to be had in BAL.

Furthermore, if the Chiefs had drafted Duvernay, how bug would the discussion be? I feel like people aren't excited enough about BAL offense. 

I think it's because the Baltimore offense is unorthodox and Ingram is there. I mean, the offense is great but you have to worry about Dobbins not getting receptions in PPR (Jackson runs instead of throwing to backs) and Duvernay is a slot guy, and Lamar doesn't throw underneath like that a ton. He tends to air it out a bit. His aDOT was 8th in the league last year.

So it's probably situational why guys aren't as excited as they should be. I'd be excited but for...

they seem to be saying. And a large part of that is nobody wants to wait a year. The values of assets always depreciate over a year. 

Edited by rockaction
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14 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I think it's because the Baltimore offense is unorthodox and Ingram is there. I mean, the offense is great but you have to worry about Dobbins not getting receptions in PPR (Jackson runs instead of throwing to backs) and Duvernay is a slot guy, and Lamar doesn't throw underneath like that a ton. He tends to air it out a bit. His aDOT was 8th in the league last year.

So it's probably situational why guys aren't as excited as they should be. I'd be excited but for...

they seem to be saying. And a large part of that is nobody wants to wait a year. The values of assets always depreciate over a year. 

That's very fair about Ingram. Lot can change in a year. Chubb owners, like myself, couldn't foresee Kareem Hunt appearing.  Whoever replaces Ingram matters more than Ingram there for a year. 

I know there is regression in Lamar's future, history says so. And if that regression comes from Lamar running less, that might mean a fairly large increase in yards and TDs elsewhere.  

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4 minutes ago, massraider said:

I know there is regression in Lamar's future, history says so. And if that regression comes from Lamar running less, that might mean a fairly large increase in yards and TDs elsewhere.  

He is not going to throw for the same attempts/TDs rate, that's for sure. And to keep himself on the field, he's going to have to pick his spots to run a little bit more than he does now. But I don't see the leopard changing spots, so to speak. That said, you're likely right, and there will less Lamar en toto offense, but there won't be as much total offense in terms of points either. He'll regress, and the fantasy distribution yards will indeed come from somewhere, even if he isn't as efficient with his opportunities to put up raw team point totals. In other words, runs down, yards up passing, not as many points for the Ravens as this will expose inefficiencies in his game to an extent.

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16 minutes ago, massraider said:

That's very fair about Ingram. Lot can change in a year. Chubb owners, like myself, couldn't foresee Kareem Hunt appearing.  Whoever replaces Ingram matters more than Ingram there for a year. 

I know there is regression in Lamar's future, history says so. And if that regression comes from Lamar running less, that might mean a fairly large increase in yards and TDs elsewhere.  

Dobbins is replacing Ingram if you ask me.  It will be Dobbins and Gus Edwards going forward.

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Ingram caught 26 balls and had 5 receiving TDs last year, so I think RB passes are perhaps more of the Ravens redzone package than people realize.  Only another 15 receptions to Edwards and Hill, but I think it's fair to pencil Dobbins in for ~30/year once Ingram is out of the picture. The TD upside in this offense is absurd and I'm still surprised I was able to get him. I have no doubt that his ceiling is capped this year, but that might change by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around. Happens with rookie RBs all the time. But with the TD upside I think he will be startable even with Ingram having a role. I think it's fair to say Edwards and Hill will be mostly afterthoughts.

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1 minute ago, Nero said:

Dobbins is replacing Ingram if you ask me.  It will be Dobbins and Gus Edwards going forward.

Not this year he isn't.  Ingram will definitely be the 1A in 2020.  Also, I believe Justice Hill will eventually be Dobbins' back up, not Gus Edwards.

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

Not this year he isn't.  Ingram will definitely be the 1A in 2020.  Also, I believe Justice Hill will eventually be Dobbins' back up, not Gus Edwards.

Ingram may hold onto the 1A for this year, though I think he'll be 1B by year's end.  I had high hopes for Justice Hill, but I don't think he plays much at all this year.  Edwards has proven himself as a very good runner and I don't Hill will overtake him.

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8 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Ingram caught 26 balls and had 5 receiving TDs last year, so I think RB passes are perhaps more of the Ravens redzone package than people realize.  Only another 15 receptions to Edwards and Hill, but I think it's fair to pencil Dobbins in for ~30/year once Ingram is out of the picture. The TD upside in this offense is absurd and I'm still surprised I was able to get him. I have no doubt that his ceiling is capped this year, but that might change by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around. Happens with rookie RBs all the time. But with the TD upside I think he will be startable even with Ingram having a role. I think it's fair to say Edwards and Hill will be mostly afterthoughts.

I didn't know you got him. You should be happy you did. He looks awesome and will have a clearer path next year provided things work out for him and Baltimore doesn't bring Ingram back.

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  • Faust changed the title to Dynasty & Redraft: Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins 08.29.21 - MRI confirms torn ACL and Dobbins will miss the 2021 season

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