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RB J.K. Dobbins, LAC (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am not sure about Gus Edwards role being reduced. He is a good blocker and that is an important piece of this spread option offense. I think Justice Hill is a terrific player but he likely doesn't do much now.
Mike Clays projections for the Ravens 2020 was a wet blanket to me as far as how much opportunity is available for Dubbins year one.
I can't argue with his logic that much, he has the Ravens passing the ball a bit more and running the ball a bit less, then he takes a 30-40 rushing attempt slice from Ingram, Edwards and Hill which gets him to 91 rushing attempts for Dobbins.
I do feel that some way some how Dobins does more than that in 2020, but if he does I think those opportunities are coming from Ingram more than Edwards.
Maybe Clay and I are both wrong about that though and Edwards only gets like 40-50 rushing attempts. That does seem possible. I just see Edwards playing a lot of snaps still, and so maybe a reduced but similar number of opportunities.
ets - FWIW the rookie season is the least productive season of a RB first 6 years in the league on average.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Weird I keep winning titles with guys like Kamara, Hunt, Barkley, Sanders, Jacobs and such. The dice roll is that by the time you get to the fantasy playoffs hopefully their role will have grown, weighed against the need to compete strong to start the season. I love pairing a proven stud at RB1 with like 1 or 2 rookie RBs with upside.
I just don't see Edwards as a threat, and think that Dobbins will take from all the other RBs. I would envision something like 45% Ingram, 35% Dobbins, 10% Edwards and 10% Hill if those guys aren't replaced. To start the season, but by the fantasy playoffs it will be more Dobbins. Assuming he isn't a bust. But I wouldn't imagine that even if Dobbins stepped ahead, that it would be much more than 50%. But I will take that in today's RB landscape all day long.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
**FWIW the rookie season is the least productive season of a RB first 6 years in the league on average.**
I've seen that before, but I'd like to see the splits for backs drafted in the top 3 rounds vs those not, and I'd like to see the rookie season(s) split at midseason.
All that said it would still make sense that if a RB does it in their rookie year, that their next season would be even better, so then combine that with the backs that miss, and it makes a lot of mathematical sense to say that their 1st year is their worst, but is that looking deep enough?
I've seen that before, but I'd like to see the splits for backs drafted in the top 3 rounds vs those not, and I'd like to see the rookie season(s) split at midseason.
All that said it would still make sense that if a RB does it in their rookie year, that their next season would be even better, so then combine that with the backs that miss, and it makes a lot of mathematical sense to say that their 1st year is their worst, but is that looking deep enough?
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'll say this, though. The strategy of drafting rookie RBs in redraft has maybe grown in the last few years. It used to be a little easier and cheaper to get these guys, now I think the pendulum is starting to swing a little. But I still love these guys. Dobbins mid 4th of redraft? Depends on my board and first 3 rounds but it seems good to me.
Taylor and CEH are going 2nd round.
Taylor and CEH are going 2nd round.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah that is not to say that rookie RB do not have good seasons, they do. Just that on average their rookie season is the lowest scoring season of the first 6 years of their careers, That is for RB who had at least one good fantasy season.
I was looking at snap counts for the Ravens RB.
Mark Ingram RB 504 45.61%
Gus Edwards RB 397 35.93%
Patrick Ricard FB 342 30.95%
Justice Hill RB 187 16.92%
Its possible I am over estimating the importance of Edwards as a blocker because they also used Patrick Ricard as a FB for a similar number of snaps. Ricard is a converted defensive lineman. So maybe he is in there for blocking still, but they do not use Gus as much.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I believe it's actually the opposite, at least for 1st round rookie running backs. They perform the best while playing under their rookie contract. I don't know about all rookies but if memory serves me correctly going back to 2016 a rookie has finished in the top 5. Josh Jacobs came up short because of injury but at one point during the season he was ranked #3 in our league before he got injured.
Tex
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Oh so you guys don't believe me?
Evidence
For all RB their average VBD is as follows per season in the league
22
31
33
28
31
17
8.3
4 .2
The first season is the lowest scoring on average of their first 6 seasons. There are multiple reasons for that such as rookie RB do not always start or play in all of the games. They get injured. They have to share time with a established starter their first season. They need to improve in pass protection.
For the players who were drafted in the top 13 picks these averages are different.
43
39
38
30
36
52
39
26
19
9
So for rookies selected this high the rookie season is their 2nd best scoring year on average.
Dobbins was selected with pick 55
The group that was drafted pick 47 to pick 73 had these numbers as the average
23.7
53.1
36.85
33.9
29.6
26.7
9.7
Dobbins is a 21 year old rookie and that group performed above the average for the first 6 seasons except for year 4.
Evidence
For all RB their average VBD is as follows per season in the league
22
31
33
28
31
17
8.3
4 .2
The first season is the lowest scoring on average of their first 6 seasons. There are multiple reasons for that such as rookie RB do not always start or play in all of the games. They get injured. They have to share time with a established starter their first season. They need to improve in pass protection.
For the players who were drafted in the top 13 picks these averages are different.
43
39
38
30
36
52
39
26
19
9
So for rookies selected this high the rookie season is their 2nd best scoring year on average.
Dobbins was selected with pick 55
The group that was drafted pick 47 to pick 73 had these numbers as the average
23.7
53.1
36.85
33.9
29.6
26.7
9.7
Dobbins is a 21 year old rookie and that group performed above the average for the first 6 seasons except for year 4.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
As that, what is your take on Dobbins as an RB prospect (not factoring in NFL landing spot)? The more I watch the more I like. He seems to possibly be the most complete back and has some explosiveness to his game.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Is he a top notch handcuff this year? Obviously in dynasty and rookie drafts he'll be more eventually but in redraft, handcuff?
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have no idea why you or anyone would think that.Dr. BD said:I thought you didn't like using historical trends to predict future performance
I have been talking about this stuff for over 20 years now on this forum.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If I thought you were doing that correctly I wouldn't have criticized it.
I made several constructive suggestions to help you improve that study. If you have fixed the math now I think it can be pretty useful. It has already been done though by Shawn Seagle and so on back in 2014.
Milkman
Footballguy
Good/Great prospect with nowhere to go for meaningful touches. He's sharing with Ingram and Edwards. He has a rushing QB that will steal rushing TDs and doesn't dump it down to RB much.
He'll be good/great in 2 years when Ingrams contract is up. Until then you can't start him.
He'll be good/great in 2 years when Ingrams contract is up. Until then you can't start him.
Faust
MVP
Agree to disagree. Baltimore was the top rushing team in the NFL last year and it was by a significant margin. They supported three rushers in the top 28 last year (yards rushing) and I think that it is highly likely that Dobbins can displace Edwards as soon as he proves himself as trustworthy in pass protection. He’s already a better pass catching option than Gus Edwards is and he will also be a better pass catching option than Mark Ingram is.
2019 NFL Rushing
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Milkman
Footballguy
But Lamar doesn't really throw to his backs......they had 52 targets combined. That's a huge red flag. His ceiling for targets is super low.
massraider
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah but Mark Ingram is still there. Thats the other problem.
He's basically the starting 3rd down back on a team that doesn't throw to their backs, has an established 1st/2nd down thumper, and the best running QB in the league.
People that draft him are going to sit on him for 2 years until Ingram leaves.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
History tells us most QBs don’t run for a 1000 yards for multiple years. The organization will want Lamar to grow as a passer and not take as many hits. I think that evolution will lend to more yards for RBs whether it is on the ground or through the air.
massraider
Footballguy
We already know Lamar doesn't throw to his backs, huh? Well, OK.
Milkman
Footballguy
The game is changing but it's not going that way. It's moving more towards running QBs not away from them.
So history tells us nothing here.
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Milkman
Footballguy
They might be dead last in the league.
Upon further review Baltimore was in fact dead last in targets to RBs.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
If that is the case this year then he will be on the buy low radar. Why burn a 2nd rounder on an asset you have no intention of using over the next few years? He is much more complete back than Hill and will add an explosive factor to the running game that Ingram doesn’t have. He will see the field.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
In Baltimore last year maybe, don’t see that as a trend around the league. Pass catching backs are a nightmare for defenses. Running quarterbacks don’t last, that is the historical trend.
higgins
Footballguy
Spotrac shows BAL has an easy “out” after this year — it’s obviously not a guarantee but Ingram may very well be gone after this season.
Milkman
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
- Ingram is already old. He might be 1B this year. Backs his age have a less than awesome track record. Dobbins taking the lead spot from him is compltely within the range of outcomes.
- You list Gus Edwards as a negative, as in: Ravens have some carries carved out for Edwards, so Dobbins will have to look elsewhere. I say LOL to that. Every team has three RBs, Edwards isn't Todd Gurley over here.
- Ingram has two years left on his deal. The most likely outcome is Ingram is a cap casualty after this year, and the Ravens replacing him with someone less talented than Dobbins. Paying a 31-year old back 6.3 million seem likely to you?
- Were you in the McCaffrey threads, telling all of us that Cam wasn't accurate enough to use CMC correctly?
massraider
Footballguy
Wow.
Milkman
Footballguy
That's some impressive mental gymnastics. The opportunity isn't there this year and decent chance Ingram there next year and you are stuck holding Dobbins for 2 years before you can start him. That's an eternity in FF.
Facts
They don't throw to their RB.
Jackson is the most dynamic rushing QB the league has ever seen.
They have a older established RB ahead of Dobbins and another RB that isn't nothing there too.
Dobbins is a rookie.
All I'm saying is that's not super awesome in my book even though I like Dobbins I'm shying away.
massraider
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Lol I avoid situations like this unless I see special. I see good. Not special.
They threw the ball to their RB like 3 times a game bro. I mean come on. They had a great offense last year that destroyed people. They are going to change that all up? Why? For a rookie RB? They were the SB favorite at the end of the regular season. Why would they change it all up?
It's more likely the offense stays the same and they pepper Dobbins in with 5-10 carries and 1.5 ish target(s) a game.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
In regards to my concern about Gus Edwards still being involved in the offense, it comes from me thinking about triple option plays where there are two RB on the field at the same time.
According to this the Ravens only had 2 RB on the field 13% of their plays. I was thinking it may have been more than that.
So Edwards was used as a traditional RB for most of his plays rather than what I was thinking of as a FB for their read option.
So based on this I'm comfortable giving 50 more Edwards carries to Dobbins than Clay did.
According to this the Ravens only had 2 RB on the field 13% of their plays. I was thinking it may have been more than that.
So Edwards was used as a traditional RB for most of his plays rather than what I was thinking of as a FB for their read option.
So based on this I'm comfortable giving 50 more Edwards carries to Dobbins than Clay did.
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Faust
MVP
It’s a good debate and it is nice to have arguments for both sets of viewpoints in this discussion.
It seems that several solid evaluators (on this board and elsewhere) view Dobbins as a good but not special athlete. To me he just popped off the screen in college, so I've been a little surprised at that. Its tough to say for sure because we have a significant gap in formal athletic testing between his SPARQ testing coming out of HS (where he measured at the top of the incoming class) and pre-draft evaluations since he sat out the combine drills and OSU's pro day was cancelled due to COVID-19. To be clear, I'm not holding up SPARQ as anything definitive but he came into CFB with an elite athletic profile and backed it up with great production, especially in his freshman and junior years (last year especially he just shredded top competition).
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I thought you were posting this one: https://247sports.com/Player/JK-Dobbins-37847/
Another
https://twitter.com/TheOpening/status/751488254562537472?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^751488254562537472&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rotoviz.com%2F2020%2F01%2Fj-k-dobbins-looks-like-a-future-rb1-a-2020-nfl-draft-prospect-profile%2F
Tex
massraider
Footballguy
Eric DeCosta, you have any thoughts on the matter?
I think he's a solid flex by mideseason.
Faust
MVP
A nice big summary in Dobbins here .
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/gfdayf/should_we_be_valuing_jk_dobbins_at_the_same_tier/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/gfdayf/should_we_be_valuing_jk_dobbins_at_the_same_tier/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I liked that article but there's no way that it makes a case for Dobbins over CEH or JT in year 1, year 2 and beyond. I read the article that it cited from baltimoreravens.com and it's very, very clear that year 1 all four running backs will be used. I like Dobbins, IMHO he'll do some great things but I'm not seeing the picture that the author of reddit is trying to paint here.
Tex
Milkman
Footballguy
Reading through the Sutton thread I realized something. I like Dobbins talent but don't like his landing spot for immediate help. Just like Sutton. He's still a good pick for someone sitting in the top 5 picks of this years draft. Just dont expect to much this year and maybe next.
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