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RB J.K. Dobbins, LAC (5 Viewers)

tangfoot said:
Are you basing this on anything other than your gut?
Click to expand...


I found this article interesting even though it is from 2015.  How have RBs fared their first season back, since 2015, compared to pre-injury?

https://www.fantasylabs.com/articles/do-most-running-backs-fully-recover-from-acl-tears/

"I looked at running back ACL tears since 1999 to see how backs have responded in the year after tearing their knee. The numbers show the average stats for the running backs in the year before and the year after the ACL tear.

As expected, touchdowns decrease substantially. But take a look at YPC. The gap appears small, but it’s actually 4.51 YPC before the injury and 4.17 YPC after it—the difference between a Pro Bowl-caliber running back and one slightly worse than league-average. YPC wouldn’t be affected (much) by total games played, so that’s a meaningful result.

What we really want to know, though, is whether or not a post-ACL running back is playable in fantasy leagues when he returns to the field, whenever that might be. The most effective way to gauge that is of course total fantasy points per game.

Again, analyzing things on a per-game basis helps control for missed time. And in terms of overall production, it’s not even close; the running backs coming off ACL tears have been significantly worse in their first season back.

Take a look at the percentage drop in running back stats post-ACL.

I looked at running back ACL tears since 1999 to see how backs have responded in the year after tearing their knee. The numbers show the average stats for the running backs in the year before and the year after the ACL tear.

One of the issues here is that the sample is already limited, but it’s cut down even more because some backs coming off of ACL tears aren’t ready by the start of the following season; it all depends on when the injury occurred. At least partially because of that, the average games played by backs coming off ACL tears is down from the year prior to the injury.

As expected, touchdowns decrease substantially. But take a look at YPC. The gap appears small, but it’s actually 4.51 YPC before the injury and 4.17 YPC after it—the difference between a Pro Bowl-caliber running back and one slightly worse than league-average. YPC wouldn’t be affected (much) by total games played, so that’s a meaningful result.

What we really want to know, though, is whether or not a post-ACL running back is playable in fantasy leagues when he returns to the field, whenever that might be. The most effective way to gauge that is of course total fantasy points per game.

Again, analyzing things on a per-game basis helps control for missed time. And in terms of overall production, it’s not even close; the running backs coming off ACL tears have been significantly worse in their first season back.

Take a look at the percentage drop in running back stats post-ACL.

The smallest dip appears to be in YPC, but that’s a little misleading since there’s already such a small deviation in running back efficiency. Remember, the decline we see in post-ACL running back efficiency is equivalent to dropping from an elite back to an average one.

The fantasy points category is again on a per-game basis, and the drop of just under 30 percent is very significant. Since 1999, running backs coming off ACL surgery have produced right around two-thirds of the fantasy points on a per-game basis as compared to their pre-ACL selves. That’s a serious drop.

Recent Success

There’s a general sentiment that running backs coming off knee tears have been able to return faster and more effectively in recent seasons, due to a combination of superior surgeries and rehab. I think there’s probably some merit to that idea. In the past few seasons, we’ve seen Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, and Knowshon Moreno put up top-tier numbers after ACL surgery.

However, we also need to note that there are some unique circumstances surrounding the backs who have rebounded from knee tears in the recent past. In regards to AP, he’s just a freak who almost shouldn’t even be analyzed alongside other players. He responded from an ACL tear in a way that we’ve never witnessed and he’s so ridiculously talented that we’re probably justified in separating the running backs into “human” and “Peterson” categories.

Charles also seemed to defy the odds in 2012, but despite his big numbers, he still regressed from the year prior to the 2011 knee tear; his total yards, touchdowns, and YPC all declined. Still, he produced at a Pro Bowl-caliber level, so we can’t really knock him.

The third example—Moreno—didn’t actually rebound in the year directly following his ACL tear. In Year N+1, he averaged 3.8 YPC and was pretty awful in Denver. He broke out in Year N+2 (2013), but I’d argue that had far more to do with Peyton Manning than Moreno’s ability.

Despite a few success stories, there are also plenty of examples of running backs regressing in a big way following ACL tears: Rashard Mendenhall, Kevin Smith, Ronnie Brown, Deuce McAllister, Edgerrin James, Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson.

So maybe the rule-of-thumb here is that running backs who aren’t once-in-a-generation sort of talents like AP or Charles are probably going to regress significantly following a serious knee surgery. Part of that might be due to the knee itself, and part could be due to changes in usage. It seems like coaches might be a little timid to throw post-ACL running backs into the fire right away, and when they do see the field, it’s often in a timeshare situation.

When you combine a reduced workload with evidence of reduced efficiency, you get reduced fantasy production, which is my second-least favorite type of reduction. My least favorite is a red wine reduction. I’ve just never been able to get into it."

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Another study from Dec 2021 (I'll just list a summary)  - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356957566_National_Football_League_Wide_Receivers_and_Running_Backs_Have_Decreased_Production_Following_ACL_Reconstruction_An_Evaluation_of_Fantasy_Football_Performance_as_an_Outcome_Measure

Conclusion

QBs did not have a statistically significant decrease in performance following ACL reconstruction based on fantasy football performance. Conversely, both running backs and wide receivers had decreased per game and career performance post-ACL reconstruction based on their fantasy football statistics.

 
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Dobbins has two things working in his favor: 1) youth 2) the injury occurred prior to last season starting so he will have over a year of healing prior to having to play

 
JohnnyU said:
true, but history says he may never be what he could have been.  There are very few who have overcome the ACL to be as good as they were. I'm not saying he won't, but the odds are against him.  He may be an average RB, that is not in question, but he may not be a special one either.  History is not on his side.
Click to expand...
I am not discounting your article but it is 7 years old. Gore, AP, McGahee, James, Charles off the top of my head all came back to have very productive seasons after the injury. I just don’t think it is the nail in the coffin it used to be. There is risk with every player and every injury, but I feel confident enough if I don’t see any setbacks to grab Dobbins early. What we don’t know if how hard guys hit rehab that were injured. From everything I have read about Dobbins he seems like a worker bee so I am confident he put the time in.

 
Isn't he also a lot younger than most of those past incidences being looked at? How many guys tore their ACL at a very young age? I know more than a few that did. It is good info, @JohnnyUand I have had the same take on RBs coming back from this injury for a long time, based on the same stuff. But more and more the trend has changed, IMO. I feel like Adrian Peterson is the demarcation. I wanna see the success/failure rate since his comeback. 

Not that it changes much, I tend to agree that Dobbins comes with much more risk now. In redraft especially. In dynasty, too, but the other risk that remains is what kind of a share Dobbins was either going to get preinjury or what he will now. Even if he blows the doors off his recovery and is ready week 1, his role in a Lamar led rushing attack is still going to be a mystery. I haven't looked at early BB ADP but I have a feeling he will be one of those dead-zone backs. I'm not afraid to draft in there but what I have found is the RBs there are either big hits or big misses.

Anyway in dynasty I am holding and it probably wouldn't take much to pry him away. But I'm not actively shopping him either. I still want to see if he can be special in Baltimore.

 
JohnnyU said:
I found this article interesting even though it is from 2015.  How have RBs fared their first season back, since 2015, compared to pre-injury?

https://www.fantasylabs.com/articles/do-most-running-backs-fully-recover-from-acl-tears/

"I looked at running back ACL tears since 1999 to see how backs have responded in the year after tearing their knee. The numbers show the average stats for the running backs in the year before and the year after the ACL tear.

As expected, touchdowns decrease substantially. But take a look at YPC. The gap appears small, but it’s actually 4.51 YPC before the injury and 4.17 YPC after it—the difference between a Pro Bowl-caliber running back and one slightly worse than league-average. YPC wouldn’t be affected (much) by total games played, so that’s a meaningful result.

What we really want to know, though, is whether or not a post-ACL running back is playable in fantasy leagues when he returns to the field, whenever that might be. The most effective way to gauge that is of course total fantasy points per game.

Again, analyzing things on a per-game basis helps control for missed time. And in terms of overall production, it’s not even close; the running backs coming off ACL tears have been significantly worse in their first season back.

Take a look at the percentage drop in running back stats post-ACL.

I looked at running back ACL tears since 1999 to see how backs have responded in the year after tearing their knee. The numbers show the average stats for the running backs in the year before and the year after the ACL tear.

One of the issues here is that the sample is already limited, but it’s cut down even more because some backs coming off of ACL tears aren’t ready by the start of the following season; it all depends on when the injury occurred. At least partially because of that, the average games played by backs coming off ACL tears is down from the year prior to the injury.

As expected, touchdowns decrease substantially. But take a look at YPC. The gap appears small, but it’s actually 4.51 YPC before the injury and 4.17 YPC after it—the difference between a Pro Bowl-caliber running back and one slightly worse than league-average. YPC wouldn’t be affected (much) by total games played, so that’s a meaningful result.

What we really want to know, though, is whether or not a post-ACL running back is playable in fantasy leagues when he returns to the field, whenever that might be. The most effective way to gauge that is of course total fantasy points per game.

Again, analyzing things on a per-game basis helps control for missed time. And in terms of overall production, it’s not even close; the running backs coming off ACL tears have been significantly worse in their first season back.

Take a look at the percentage drop in running back stats post-ACL.

The smallest dip appears to be in YPC, but that’s a little misleading since there’s already such a small deviation in running back efficiency. Remember, the decline we see in post-ACL running back efficiency is equivalent to dropping from an elite back to an average one.

The fantasy points category is again on a per-game basis, and the drop of just under 30 percent is very significant. Since 1999, running backs coming off ACL surgery have produced right around two-thirds of the fantasy points on a per-game basis as compared to their pre-ACL selves. That’s a serious drop.

Recent Success

There’s a general sentiment that running backs coming off knee tears have been able to return faster and more effectively in recent seasons, due to a combination of superior surgeries and rehab. I think there’s probably some merit to that idea. In the past few seasons, we’ve seen Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, and Knowshon Moreno put up top-tier numbers after ACL surgery.

However, we also need to note that there are some unique circumstances surrounding the backs who have rebounded from knee tears in the recent past. In regards to AP, he’s just a freak who almost shouldn’t even be analyzed alongside other players. He responded from an ACL tear in a way that we’ve never witnessed and he’s so ridiculously talented that we’re probably justified in separating the running backs into “human” and “Peterson” categories.

Charles also seemed to defy the odds in 2012, but despite his big numbers, he still regressed from the year prior to the 2011 knee tear; his total yards, touchdowns, and YPC all declined. Still, he produced at a Pro Bowl-caliber level, so we can’t really knock him.

The third example—Moreno—didn’t actually rebound in the year directly following his ACL tear. In Year N+1, he averaged 3.8 YPC and was pretty awful in Denver. He broke out in Year N+2 (2013), but I’d argue that had far more to do with Peyton Manning than Moreno’s ability.

Despite a few success stories, there are also plenty of examples of running backs regressing in a big way following ACL tears: Rashard Mendenhall, Kevin Smith, Ronnie Brown, Deuce McAllister, Edgerrin James, Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson.

So maybe the rule-of-thumb here is that running backs who aren’t once-in-a-generation sort of talents like AP or Charles are probably going to regress significantly following a serious knee surgery. Part of that might be due to the knee itself, and part could be due to changes in usage. It seems like coaches might be a little timid to throw post-ACL running backs into the fire right away, and when they do see the field, it’s often in a timeshare situation.

When you combine a reduced workload with evidence of reduced efficiency, you get reduced fantasy production, which is my second-least favorite type of reduction. My least favorite is a red wine reduction. I’ve just never been able to get into it."

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Another study from Dec 2021 (I'll just list a summary)  - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356957566_National_Football_League_Wide_Receivers_and_Running_Backs_Have_Decreased_Production_Following_ACL_Reconstruction_An_Evaluation_of_Fantasy_Football_Performance_as_an_Outcome_Measure

Conclusion

QBs did not have a statistically significant decrease in performance following ACL reconstruction based on fantasy football performance. Conversely, both running backs and wide receivers had decreased per game and career performance post-ACL reconstruction based on their fantasy football statistics.
Click to expand...
I have to say, the more stuff like this I read, the more insane it is that Jamal Lewis had a 2000+ season when he came back from his. Just insane. People mocked me when I drafted him. Said I threw away my 3rd round pick. It probably should have been that way. 

ETA wasn't he also in jail for a portion of his rehab?

Insane. 

 
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barackdhouse said:
the other risk that remains is what kind of a share Dobbins was either going to get preinjury or what he will now. Even if he blows the doors off his recovery and is ready week 1, his role in a Lamar led rushing attack is still going to be a mystery. I haven't looked at early BB ADP but I have a feeling he will be one of those dead-zone backs. I'm not afraid to draft in there but what I have found is the RBs there are either big hits or big misses.
Click to expand...


:goodposting:

 
King of the Jungle said:
I am not discounting your article but it is 7 years old. Gore, AP, McGahee, James, Charles off the top of my head all came back to have very productive seasons after the injury. I just don’t think it is the nail in the coffin it used to be. There is risk with every player and every injury, but I feel confident enough if I don’t see any setbacks to grab Dobbins early. What we don’t know if how hard guys hit rehab that were injured. From everything I have read about Dobbins he seems like a worker bee so I am confident he put the time in.
Click to expand...
At the bottom of that post was a recent article (dec 2021).

 
JohnnyU said:
At the bottom of that post was a recent article (dec 2021).
Click to expand...
Yeah, it would be most interesting looking at the cases individually correlated with age. Kupp is a nice recent example of a player that statistically improved after injury (the year after he had a career year and then obviously this last year he blew the doors off). To each their own, I am not saying ignore the injury. But in regards to Dobbins work ethic, age, and how early he suffered the injury last year I am not terribly concerned.

 
King of the Jungle said:
But in regards to Dobbins work ethic, age, and how early he suffered the injury last year I am not terribly concerned.
Click to expand...
I'm less concerned about his recovery, and more about workload. If I knew Dobbins would get 12-15 carries & 3-4 receptions, I'm in. 

From week 7 on, his stats were pretty solid. (averaged 12/70/.8 TD - When they fed him, he produced. But he averaged less than a reception a game, so in games where he's not getting it done on the ground, or if BAL is playing from behind, you may not get much from him.  

I like Dobbins as a player a lot, but I wasn't high on him last year in FF for the same reasons.  I wouldn't mind having him, but would be unlikely to go out and deal for him.

I might take a shot in redraft if I'm feeling particularly masochistic.  lol

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I'm less concerned about his recovery, and more about workload. If I knew Dobbins would get 12-15 carries & 3-4 receptions, I'm in. 

From week 7 on, his stats were pretty solid. (averaged 12/70/.8 TD - When they fed him, he produced. But he averaged less than a reception a game, so in games where he's not getting it done on the ground, or if BAL is playing from behind, you may not get much from him.  

I like Dobbins as a player a lot, but I wasn't high on him last year in FF for the same reasons.  I wouldn't mind having him, but would be unlikely to go out and deal for him.

I might take a shot in redraft if I'm feeling particularly masochistic.  lol
Click to expand...
I was pretty high on him going into last season as there were talks of them increasing his passing game usage. The gong show of running backs they had last year received 70 targets so it is not out of the realm if he does excel in that area they will give him more opps. 

 
King of the Jungle said:
I was pretty high on him going into last season as there were talks of them increasing his passing game usage. The gong show of running backs they had last year received 70 targets so it is not out of the realm if he does excel in that area they will give him more opps. 
Click to expand...
Any updates on Gus Edwards? 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Any updates on Gus Edwards? 
Click to expand...
Have not seen anything. Assume they will have some form of split this season. Ravens would be wise to add a FA or later round pick after last years injuries. The last six healthy games Dobbins played he had at least one touchdown. Never had more than 15 carries. If healthy and gets 12-15 carries/2-3 targets he can be productive.

 
King of the Jungle said:
Not to beat a dead horse but I think his age and having over a year to recover make the odds of success much better.
Click to expand...
1st year is key - very few players are all the way back.  And the team might wasn’t to ramp him up. If Gus is back, between Gus, LJax & Dobbins, touches  might not be bountiful enough. 

2023 maybe a better chance of really busting loose. Or a mid-season 2022 target if things are looking good but he hasn’t broken out yet. 

 
JohnnyU said:
So, no reservations about usage when he’s back from the ACL injury?  History isn’t on his side for players first year after said injury.
Click to expand...
You're correct - first year back can be tough.  But I suspect he stays around the 18-20 touch ceiling. 

 
popeye said:
All in on Dobbins.
Click to expand...
Ditto, I'm not even worried about targets. He'll get a share and make the most of them.

JohnnyU said:
So, no reservations about usage when he’s back from the ACL injury?  History isn’t on his side for players first year after said injury.
Click to expand...
No reservations as I'm realistic. History is fluid to me when it comes to recent technological advancements in the recovery from injuries to the human body. Because of that I'm less concerned than I might have been 10 years ago. Is it likely Dobbins is eased back in? Maybe. As I said, I'm realistic and I'm OK with that if the Ravens take that approach.

Will I hedge my bet(s) and have other viable options in the stable? Absolutely! Well, that's the goal and hopefully my research and homework will make it possible. It usually does.

Disclaimer: I'm approaching this from a mostly dynasty perspective. Even still, I consider Dobbins a top-12 RB in redraft for '22, maybe higher and I wouldn't hesitate to draft him late in the 1st round as my RB1. In dynasty, he's my RB2.

 
Ruffrodys05 said:
Ditto, I'm not even worried about targets. He'll get a share and make the most of them.

No reservations as I'm realistic. History is fluid to me when it comes to recent technological advancements in the recovery from injuries to the human body. Because of that I'm less concerned than I might have been 10 years ago. Is it likely Dobbins is eased back in? Maybe. As I said, I'm realistic and I'm OK with that if the Ravens take that approach.

Will I hedge my bet(s) and have other viable options in the stable? Absolutely! Well, that's the goal and hopefully my research and homework will make it possible. It usually does.

Disclaimer: I'm approaching this from a mostly dynasty perspective. Even still, I consider Dobbins a top-12 RB in redraft for '22, maybe higher and I wouldn't hesitate to draft him late in the 1st round as my RB1. In dynasty, he's my RB2.
Click to expand...
That is very risky IMO.  You're assuming he will be the same pre-injury and be the same as soon as he's ready to play.  History says otherwise most of the time.  Don't be surprised if you are disappointed with those results in 2022.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
1st year is key - very few players are all the way back.  And the team might wasn’t to ramp him up. If Gus is back, between Gus, LJax & Dobbins, touches  might not be bountiful enough. 

2023 maybe a better chance of really busting loose. Or a mid-season 2022 target if things are looking good but he hasn’t broken out yet. 
Click to expand...
This is why I think Dobbins is a better mid season target than a target right now.  If an owner has held on to him through the injury he is likely going to want to see him actually play before moving him for "less".  If he comes out of the shoot with less than stellar performance it might be a time to float a lowish offer and try and get value before he gets back up to speed.  

 
Gally said:
This is why I think Dobbins is a better mid season target than a target right now.  If an owner has held on to him through the injury he is likely going to want to see him actually play before moving him for "less".  If he comes out of the shoot with less than stellar performance it might be a time to float a lowish offer and try and get value before he gets back up to speed.  
Click to expand...
Exactly. To me, that’s the shrewd play. 

 
JohnnyU said:
That is very risky IMO.  You're assuming he will be the same pre-injury and be the same as soon as he's ready to play.  History says otherwise most of the time.  Don't be surprised if you are disappointed with those results in 2022.
Click to expand...
Why would you think I might be surprised if he disappoints? I'm not assuming anything and I have a plan in place should he disappoint. I stated so in my post. I also addressed how I feel about what history tells us with regards to injury recoveries in today's atmosphere vs. 10 years ago. I take risks in this game. I don't play the game to finish in the middle of the pack. 

Thanks for lookin out though.

 
Ruffrodys05 said:
Why would you think I might be surprised if he disappoints? I'm not assuming anything and I have a plan in place should he disappoint. I stated so in my post. I also addressed how I feel about what history tells us with regards to injury recoveries in today's atmosphere vs. 10 years ago. I take risks in this game. I don't play the game to finish in the middle of the pack. 

Thanks for lookin out though.
Click to expand...
In my original post I posted a link at the bottom dated Dec 2021, not 10 years ago.  It has some important information in that link, not something I want to ignore.

 
King of the Jungle said:
Dalvin Cook is another example as he tore his ACL his rookie year and progressed into one the leagues best backs.
Click to expand...
Cook tore his ACL in 2017.  In 2018 he only had 615 yards and 2 TDs in 11 games.  Looks like the first year back history still hold true for Dalvin Cook.

 
JohnnyU said:
In my original post I posted a link at the bottom dated Dec 2021, not 10 years ago.  It has some important information in that link, not something I want to ignore.
Click to expand...
Ok, I didn't read your link. My reasoning is that it doesn't matter to me. The 10 year comment was solely based on how I feel about injury recovery now vs then, not whatever historical trend is highlighted by the article linked. I don't feel this is a situation, for me, where I have to be risk averse. It's fine if you want to be, I understand where you are coming from and I respect that. I'm taking a different approach. I'm not trying to convince anyone to take my approach either, simply stating this is how I'm dealing with Dobbins this year. I'm not discounting the fact there may be risk involved, I just don't believe it's as high as you might. I also believe my contingency plan minimizes whatever risk there may be. So, I'm all in on Dobbins for '22.

 
JohnnyU said:
Cook tore his ACL in 2017.  In 2018 he only had 615 yards and 2 TDs in 11 games.  Looks like the first year back history still hold true for Dalvin Cook.
Click to expand...
He also averaged 4.6 ypc and caught 40 balls, not too shabby for 11 games. Cook tore his ACL in the 4th regular season game and Dobbins tore his in preseason.

 
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King of the Jungle said:
He also averaged 4.6 ypc and caught 40 balls, not too shabby for 11 games. Cook tore his ACL in the 4th regular season game and Dobbins tore his in preseason.
Click to expand...
615 yards and 2 TDs the next season after tearing his ACL shows a slow return to normal the next season, regardless of 4th game or preseason.  4th game is still early in the year.

 
JohnnyU said:
615 yards and 2 TDs the next season after tearing his ACL shows a slow return to normal the next season, regardless of 4th game or preseason.  4th game is still early in the year.
Click to expand...
Time will tell with Dobbins. I personally will not have any reservations about drafting him unless there is talk of a setback. 

 
JohnnyU said:
615 yards and 2 TDs the next season after tearing his ACL shows a slow return to normal the next season, regardless of 4th game or preseason.  4th game is still early in the year.
Click to expand...
That was week 4 of his rookie season. There was barely any *normal* or *baseline* to compare against once he came back.

And I frankly think it is misleading to say he had 615 yards and 2 TDs. He also caught 40 balls for 305 and 2 more TDs. In 11 games as someone who is barely more than a rookie that is pretty good. Over 80 yards from scrimmage per game.

To be clear I really do agree with your premise that expectations should be tempered and that coming back from this injury is no given. In terms of role, in terms of health, all of it. Just not sure Cook is the best example here.

 
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barackdhouse said:
That was week 4 of his rookie season. There was barely any *normal* or *baseline* to compare against once he came back.

And I frankly think it is misleading to say he had 615 yards and 2 TDs. He also caught 40 balls for 305 and 2 more TDs. In 11 games as someone who is barely more than a rookie that is pretty good. Over 80 yards from scrimmage per game.

To be clear I really do agree with your premise that expectations should be tempered and that coming back from this injury is no given. In terms of role, in terms of health, all of it. Just not sure Cook is the best example here.
Click to expand...
Plus he averaged 4.6 a tote. It doesn’t seem like performance was an issue.

 
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