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Devy & Redraft: Clyde Edwards-Helaire: KC IT IS!!!


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Shut this message board down - these things aren’t even debateable.

I don't know about split percentages but I expect CEH to be primary, not only but primary RB on first and second  non obvious passing downs when not inside the opposing teams 10 yard line. I expect Be

Put me down as saying I do not care one iota about speed score, athletic score, or any of that kind of stuff.  I actually find it laughable people think they unlocked some kind of cheat code, that a g

Rotoworld take:

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Clyde Edwards-Helaire has become the Chiefs' clear lead back following Damien Williams' opt out. 

The No. 32 overall pick was obviously already in line for a big role, but he now lacks real competition on early downs. Free agent addition DeAndre Washington has never been more than replacement-level between the tackles, while neither Darrel Williams nor Darwin Thompson have distinguished themselves. Ex-Jet Elijah McGuire is on the outside looking in of a 53-man roster spot. In a perfect world, diminutive CEH would be eased in on early downs, but 2020 is not going to be a perfect football world. He is now in a commanding position for monstrous workloads in the league's most dangerous offense. He is a clear RB1, the degree of which will be hotly debated all August. 

Jul 29, 2020, 5:52 PM ET

 

 

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1 hour ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Wondering if this changes the CEH/JT 1.01 debate. The profile hasn’t changed. Just the competition

I’m willing to bet KC signs someone before the season. You can’t tell me Drew Rosenhaus isn’t calling there right now discussing Freeman 

I was agonizing over CEH and JT in a dynasty rookie draft....I have Mahomes so really wanted to diversify...but with this news hes the clear #1 rookie IMO

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4 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

Correct, the discussion has not changed.  CHE was and is the clear 1.01.

Can't believe I am saying this as a Chiefs fan about a player of ours but JT is the superior talent in a great situation

In 0.5 PPR or standard he is still my 1.01

It is just so much easier to find successful players of JT's archetype than it is to find RB hits who are slow and small but build their game around pass catching and elusiveness

Both will be great (I need them to--I sold a ton of assets to move up and draft both CEH/JT) but JT is safer with a comparable ceiling

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What is the Fantasy Impact of Damien Williams' Opt-Out?

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From a fantasy perspective, owners will see a meteoric rise for rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire in all drafts. The rookie will now move from a mid-third to early fourth round ADP into immediate first round consideration playing in arguably the most explosive offense in the NFL. He also will see his ADP skyrocket in Dynasty Leagues as well.

The LSU product is a dynamic dual-threat and now becomes the most sought after rookie running back in fantasy football drafts. He has excellent hands and will fit in perfectly catching passes out of the backfield and taking handoffs from Patrick Mahomes. 

Andy Reid is probably already adding another page to his extensive play sheet (exclusively catered to the rookie's talents) after hearing word from the Williams’ camp of his opt-out. The Chiefs were able to win their first Super Bowl in 50 years by employing a committee approach to the backfield last season but that changes with the Williams opt-out. 

Edwards-Helaire will now become the bell-cow back spelled at times by Darrell Williams, Darwin Thompson and DeAndre Washington.

 

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44 minutes ago, Kiddnets said:

I was agonizing over CEH and JT in a dynasty rookie draft....I have Mahomes so really wanted to diversify...but with this news hes the clear #1 rookie IMO

If you’re playing for 2020 then yes CEH is likely the 1.01, however the profiles still put JT on top and CEH as a landmine

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40 minutes ago, KChusker said:

Can't believe I am saying this as a Chiefs fan about a player of ours but JT is the superior talent in a great situation

In 0.5 PPR or standard he is still my 1.01

It is just so much easier to find successful players of JT's archetype than it is to find RB hits who are slow and small but build their game around pass catching and elusiveness

Both will be great (I need them to--I sold a ton of assets to move up and draft both CEH/JT) but JT is safer with a comparable ceiling

Agree

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1 hour ago, KChusker said:

Can't believe I am saying this as a Chiefs fan about a player of ours but JT is the superior talent in a great situation

In 0.5 PPR or standard he is still my 1.01

It is just so much easier to find successful players of JT's archetype than it is to find RB hits who are slow and small but build their game around pass catching and elusiveness

Both will be great (I need them to--I sold a ton of assets to move up and draft both CEH/JT) but JT is safer with a comparable ceiling

Nope.  

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35 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

Nope.  

Succinct response

I am certainly hoping the CEH is better due to having him on my real life and fantasy teams, but it isn't hard to look at their college careers and come to the conclusion that Taylor is a superior talent in a pretty great situation (though not as great as KC), or that very few RBs who are both small AND slow (you can be one or the other--but both is rough) have turned into RB1s (Brian Westbrook being the only one I can think of immediately)

I do think CEH will with Andy+Mahomes, but I certainly consider an athletic monster with a sparkling production profile behind a great line with a really good organization/coaching staff to be the safer pick--even if neither is "wrong" or "bad"

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How Damien Williams’ choice to opt-out affects fantasy football

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Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a must-own player.

Those who were selecting Clyde Edwards-Heliare in the first three rounds of fantasy drafts are laughing, as he won’t see that value again. Edwards-Helaire instantly vaults up to a late 1st-round or early 2nd-round pick in upcoming drafts.  

The list of players who I would take over Edwards-Helaire is a small one: Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook.

I think that is about it during a PPR draft and who I would take ahead of Edwards-Helaire. When scoring is changed to 0.5 PPR or even standard, Derrick Henry becomes a much tougher choice, due to volume. The opportunities that Edwards-Helaire is going to see this year in such a high powered offense give him a ceiling that puts him into a different category. While I think players like Joe Mixon or even Henry are better running backs purely on talent, they don’t have the upside, so they slide behind him for me. 

While I need to go in and tweak my fantasy football rankings given Damien Williams’s decision, my first impressions are Edwards-Helaire is now my RB6 heading into drafts. For Dynasty, given its longer approach, the conversation between him and Jonathan Taylor is still up for debate. I am on Team Taylor, but for 2020, the debate is over.

Over the last 15 years, the RB1 in an Andy Reid offense has averaged 18ppg in fantasy. Adding in that Edwards-Helaire is the first running back ever drafted in the first round by Reid should tell you all you need to know about his confidence level in his new backfield weapon. 

 

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32 minutes ago, KChusker said:

or that very few RBs who are both small AND slow (you can be one or the other--but both is rough) have turned into RB1s (Brian Westbrook being the only one I can think of immediately)

 

I've got Edwards-Helaire at a BMI of 31.8. I guess you could call him small based on his height, but the guy is built and explosive. 

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5 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I've got Edwards-Helaire at a BMI of 31.8. I guess you could call him small based on his height, but the guy is built and explosive. 

Which is why I am not discounting him and in fact have him in a clear top tier with Taylor (well ahead of Dobbins and Swift), but height is a factor too--as is his production through college

I can understand not beating out a high recruit and top prospect like Guice when CEH was a sophomore but not beating Nick Brossette in 2018 is a bit of a head scratcher

 

He did land in the perfect system though and is clearly very talented so I am hopeful--just more saying that he has more holes as a prospect than Taylor does

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21 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

Smart money is on McCoy.

They could just stay put with Washington, Thompson, and the other Williams. 

Side note, has a team ever had their QB/RB/WR/TE all go in the first 20 picks of a fantasy draft? Because that seems very possible, if not even probable.

ETA: The only one that is coming to mind for me is maybe Manning/Addai/Wayne/Clark, but I'm not sure if Addai/Clark overlapped as top-20 picks, or if Clark really ever was.

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4 minutes ago, travdogg said:

They could just stay put with Washington, Thompson, and the other Williams. 

Side note, has a team ever had their QB/RB/WR/TE all go in the first 20 picks of a fantasy draft? Because that seems very possible, if not even probable.

Maybe Denver 2014?

Manning after his MVP year, Montee Ball hype with Knowshon Moreno gone, Demaryius Thomas, maybe Julius Thomas

Probably more like top 30 than top 20 though

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1 hour ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Updated Mike Clay projections for KC RBs.

Go to LINK to see graph.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

About 240 points in ppr.  I'd easily take the over if they were going to play a full season, but they're not.

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

If I drew pick 3 in a startup  I'd probably poke around at moving back and if I found no takers I'd happily draft CEH.

Interesting.  Over guys like Zeke and Mahomes?

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Fantasy Football Impact: Damien Williams Opts Out Due to COVID-19

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1) Where are you now ranking Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and which running backs would you now draft CEH ahead of?

I’ve moved Clyde Edwards-Helaire up to RB5 in Half PPR with the news. It may seem a bit overeager, but there is virtually zero chance he doesn’t get the workhorse duties from Week 1 unless they bring in a Lamar Miller or Devonta Freeman, and even so, he probably still would. We saw with Kareem Hunt in his rookie season that an electric young back can step right into this offense and dominate from day one. I’d grab him just ahead of Dalvin Cook (until the contract dispute ends), Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, and Miles Sanders.
– Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)

Clyde Edward-Helaire jumps 11 spots in my rankings up to RB8 in 1/2 PPR leagues. Even with the usual hesitations that come with a rookie running back with this bizarre offseason, there’s just no way to keep him outside of the RB1 range. But, I admit that I’m not ready to vault him into top-5 status at this stage. Andy Reid continued to give LeSean McCoy carries last year well after he showed that he had little to offer, and there are still plenty of other names in the Kansas City backfield who can gather up touches. For now, I still have him behind the likes of Dalvin Cook and even Joe Mixon, but I’d draft him before Nick Chubb, Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders, and Josh Jacobs.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire has now been moved up to RB6 in my 1/2 PPR rankings. He’s tied to the most dynamic offense in the league, and he’s a phenomenally talented player. He’s going to be a factor in the passing game out of the backfield, and there’s no reason to doubt that he could finish in the top 10 at the position this season with Damien Williams now out for the year. I’m ranking him above guys like Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, and Nick Chubb in any form of PPR.
– Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)

 

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2 hours ago, Deamon said:

Interesting.  Over guys like Zeke and Mahomes?

Yes,  but not Superflex as it relates to Mahomes.

And really it's not that much of a bump from where I had him before DWILL checked out.

I got a friend of mine who was in a startup several weeks ago, FFPC, and he took CEH at 4. I was looking at his draft board and came to realization I probably would have done the same thing. I just think Elliot has had way to much wear and tear. Elliot, Kamara and Dalvin are all 25 and are on or will soon be on their dreaded RB second contracts. These are elite players and it's fair to say CEH has proven nothing but I'll take the shot because in RB life spans the 4 year age gap he has those other players is almost a career. I would not want to walk out of a dynasty start up drafting using a top 5 pick on a 25 year old RB, I would feel better about a 21 year old whose best trait is probably what he offers as a receiver paired with that coach and QB. We talk about risk and some would say it's risky taking an unproven player that high but I think it's a greater risk taking a RB 4 years older. That's my philosophy but understandably not for everyone.

So I was in this range before DWILL, who I did absolutely think was in the way this year of CEH hitting his upside so it's certainly an easier call now.

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34 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Yes,  but not Superflex as it relates to Mahomes.

And really it's not that much of a bump from where I had him before DWILL checked out.

I got a friend of mine who was in a startup several weeks ago, FFPC, and he took DWILL at 4. I was looking at his draft board and came to realization I probably would have done the same thing. I just think Elliot has had way to much wear and tear. Elliot, Kamara and Dalvin are all 25 and are on or will soon be on their dreaded RB second contracts. These are elite players and it's fair to say CEH has proven nothing but I'll take the shot because in RB life spans the 4 year age gap he has those other players is almost a career. I would not want to walk out of a dynasty start up drafting using a top 5 pick on a 25 year old RB, I would feel better about a 21 year old whose best trait is probably what he offers as a receiver paired with that coach and QB. We talk about risk and some would say it's risky taking an unproven player that high but I think it's a greater risk taking a RB 4 years older. That's my philosophy but understandably not for everyone.

So I was in this range before DWILL, who I did absolutely think was in the way this year of CEH hitting his upside so it's certainly an easier call now.

You mean he took CEH. 

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14 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

@Chad Parsons does the Williams news move the needle on CEH for you at all? 

Sounds like he is still a hater to me.

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2020-repercussions-damien-williams-opt-out

Chad Parsons

One of my firm takes regarding opt-outs, August injuries, or say a COVID-19 designation for a player soon is that the reaction for the remaining depth chart will in general be an overreaction. This is especially true with running backs. In these cases, teams will have time to pivot and address the situation, which is far different than the typical fall-out once the season is rolling along. Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller are fully functional veteran running backs seeking employment. They are circling depth charts like the proverbial vultures for an opportunity as a 1A or 1B back. I have concerns about the profile of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and more early opportunities would not change those as they are player-centric, not situation-centric. Also, I would add DeAndre Washington is an underrated NFL talent and Darrel Williams has some Alfred Blue to his game where I can see him sticking around the NFL for far longer than nearly all would project from this point forward. I was already out on Edwards-Helaire's price and this shift would certainly keep him on that side of the 2020 fence.

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1 hour ago, Dez said:

Sounds like he is still a hater to me.

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2020-repercussions-damien-williams-opt-out

Chad Parsons

One of my firm takes regarding opt-outs, August injuries, or say a COVID-19 designation for a player soon is that the reaction for the remaining depth chart will in general be an overreaction. This is especially true with running backs. In these cases, teams will have time to pivot and address the situation, which is far different than the typical fall-out once the season is rolling along. Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller are fully functional veteran running backs seeking employment. They are circling depth charts like the proverbial vultures for an opportunity as a 1A or 1B back. I have concerns about the profile of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and more early opportunities would not change those as they are player-centric, not situation-centric. Also, I would add DeAndre Washington is an underrated NFL talent and Darrel Williams has some Alfred Blue to his game where I can see him sticking around the NFL for far longer than nearly all would project from this point forward. I was already out on Edwards-Helaire's price and this shift would certainly keep him on that side of the 2020 fence.

He makes a good point; if you didn’t like the profile of CEH and were moving him down your boards due to that, his situation improving shouldn’t affect your outlook of him. 

Williams wasn’t a major obstacle, let’s be honest. Many people felt he would be a factor just enough to make it annoying. Him opting out doesn’t change much. 
I have similar reservations about the profile, but both sides have been debated enough at this point. 

I think CEH will be a good fantasy back, but there are two with a higher ceiling in my opinion. This is a good RB class. 

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6 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

He makes a good point; if you didn’t like the profile of CEH and were moving him down your boards due to that, his situation improving shouldn’t affect your outlook of him. 

Williams wasn’t a major obstacle, let’s be honest. Many people felt he would be a factor just enough to make it annoying. Him opting out doesn’t change much. 
I have similar reservations about the profile, but both sides have been debated enough at this point. 

I think CEH will be a good fantasy back, but there are two with a higher ceiling in my opinion. This is a good RB class. 

2? I get Taylor but no way can I take Dobbins or Swift over a 1st round pick in Kansas City

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3 minutes ago, KChusker said:

2? I get Taylor but no way can I take Dobbins or Swift over a 1st round pick in Kansas City

I like Dobbins a lot. I actually think he could be the best fantasy back out of this class. I wouldn’t take him over CEH, but I’d trade down if I could so I could have Dobbins

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Watching someone with multiple accounts flip flop between them commenting and liking their own posts is the saddest thing I've seen this month.  I'd extend it to this year but, we're living in 2020.

Anyway, CHE >>> Taylor and its not really close to me.  Different type athlete but if you're looking for the next Kamara in terms of production, its Helaire.  Maybe better.

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14 hours ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Updated Mike Clay projections for KC RBs.

Go to LINK to see graph.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

That's a huge dropoff in the rushing numbers compared to last year, when they didn't exactly have a formidable running back.

It would be pretty shocking if the Chiefs only rushed for 1200 yards as a team this year.  They've never rushed for less than 1500 under Reid and are typically slightly under the 2000 mark.

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20 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

That's a huge dropoff in the rushing numbers compared to last year, when they didn't exactly have a formidable running back.

It would be pretty shocking if the Chiefs only rushed for 1200 yards as a team this year.  They've never rushed for less than 1500 under Reid and are typically slightly under the 2000 mark.

I figured it was because they see CEH as a bigger receiving threat than rushing threat. 

One thing is for sure, if he doesn’t produce he has no excuse. A pretty safe bet to get volume. I don’t see a super star, but I don’t see a bust. 

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2 minutes ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

I figured it was because they see CEH as a bigger receiving threat than rushing threat. 

One thing is for sure, if he doesn’t produce he has no excuse. A pretty safe bet to get volume. I don’t see a super star, but I don’t see a bust. 

Compared to Damien Williams, who has a career high of 498 rushing yards?

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Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

Compared to Damien Williams, who has a career high of 498 rushing yards?

In 6 starts

I’m not sure how CEH’s talent transitions to the NFL. I’ve seen great rushers bust and “meh” guys surprise. On paper and in college it’s not even a discussion of who is better. I would expect CEH to do much better his rookie year than Williams ever has, but again I’m not sure I see a super star that so many others do. 

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Just now, Vandelay said:

Lol...shrug. Didnt say anything other than the truth.

The whole point of this forum is to wade through different opinions and consensus. Putting laughing emojis next to reasonable opinions does everyone a disservice and makes you look bad. But that's par for the course, I guess.

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12 minutes ago, rockaction said:

The whole point of this forum is to wade through different opinions and consensus. Putting laughing emojis next to reasonable opinions does everyone a disservice and makes you look bad. But that's par for the course, I guess.

Oh, cool.  I thought it was to make multiple accounts and like ones own posts to bolster ones own arguments.  I guess I stand corrected.  

(LOL no, not really)

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11 hours ago, menobrown said:

Yes,  but not Superflex as it relates to Mahomes.

I've never done a start up dynasty draft so I guess I don't really know.  I'm a wait-on-qb guy, but the thought of having Mahomes locked in as my fantasy QB for the next 15 years just seems super appealing.

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6 hours ago, rockaction said:

The whole point of this forum is to wade through different opinions and consensus. Putting laughing emojis next to reasonable opinions does everyone a disservice and makes you look bad. But that's par for the course, I guess.

I’m not sure what he’s talking about but I apparently said something funny. It seems people have gotten quite touchy on their takes and opinions. Seems to go in line with how things are these days with millennials... 

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