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RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC


BigTex

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19 minutes ago, BigTex said:

One of the best articles I've read about CEH with insight from Greg Cosell and Dane Brugler:

https://www.rotostreetjournal.com/2020/04/24/clyde-edwards-helaire-lands-in-fantasy-ppr-rb-heaven-under-andy-reid-in-chiefs-elite-offense/

 

Tex

 

Like this....

Before, though, is a crucial Barrett stat: a target has been worth 2.83 times as much as a carry in PPR leagues. (A reception, obviously, is worth even more than that.)

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15 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Arguing a guy is big because he's really short. That's interesting.

He's big because he's extremely heavy for his height. Absolute weight and height are overrated.

Ray Rice was only 199 pounds at the combine, but ran harder than 217 pound Darren McFadden because of how their weight was distributed (5'8" vs. 6'2"). McFadden was tall and lean while Rice was short and compact. A tall back with an identical BMI to a shorter back will probably run with more functional power (i.e. Peterson, Jackson, Gurley), but in many cases a short back with a high BMI will run harder than a heavier back with a taller and leaner frame.

If Rice and MJD can be enduring three-down backs in the NFL at 199 and 207 pounds then I don't see how size is a legitimate issue for CEH. He's cut from the same mold physically and one look at him shows you that he's built like a bowling ball. Reid has had good success with lighter starters in his coaching career (Westbrook, McCoy, Charles). Clyde is not as fast as McCoy or Charles, but is bigger and more powerful. He has the agility to win in space like Westbrook and McCoy.

Edited by EBF
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1 minute ago, Dr. BD said:

Yeah some guys here don’t like analytics, which is fine, and I’m not trying to change anyone’s mind.

I love analytics and this may explain why I hold the position I do. As I mentioned previously, I am considering taking him 1.01, but I see him as a riskier pick than others

You may all get back to drooling over him now

Its got nothing to with analytics.  It doesn't  answer a relevant question.  The whole premise of the article is the probability a guy has a top 24 season in his career.  I don't care if the analytics are perfectly perfect.  They don't matter in the slightest.

 

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24 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

A great article...

The Case Against CEH

"Players with a YPT greater than 6.8 significantly outperformed their peers (and I didn’t even control for a touch minimum)! Which players from the 2020 class exceeded this threshold? Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, Anthony McFarland, Raymond Calais, and Javon Leake.

Does that mean players like JK Dobbins or CEH won’t be as successful right? No!" <------His disclaimer! This gives him an out (IMHO).

This is the biggest danger of using thresholds for analysis. The performance of the outliers is useful for describing only the outliers – it is not useful for comparing players, especially if a player is just on the other side of the arbitrary threshold we set. Consider if I had bumped the threshold down to 6.4 YPT, Dobbins would now be in our split and look like an outlier."

Is he using his own threshold???????

Is YPT different from YPA because this is what I have from 2019:

Calais 7.8

Leake 7.0

Dobbins 6.7

CEH 6.6

Taylor 6.3

Swift 6.2

Moss 6.0

McFarland 5.4

Akers 4.9

Personally, I'm sold on CEH as this is a no brainer for me.

Tex

 

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He also states:

WHAT ABOUT THE FILM?

I get it. Clyde’s film is intoxicating, and his spin move is absolutely filthy. I’m not going to fault you if you take Clyde Edwards-Helaire at 1.01 in your rookie draft. Certainly, your decision will be supported by some of the best film analysis in the industry (See @RayGQue’s breakdown of JT and CEH below).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5qxZHX9UHI&feature=youtu.be

I follow Ray and he does a great job of breaking down film.

He then says the following:

T’S ABOUT THE RISK

"Ultimately, I’m okay being wrong about CEH because I’m more comfortable when my top-rated player has rave film reviews AND has an outlier production profile AND an outlier athleticism profile. Simply put, my model says players like CEH are riskier bets than players like Taylor, Dobbins, or Akers. As a result, I have CEH slotted in at number 3 in my ranks, behind Taylor and Dobbins."

Tex

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5 minutes ago, BigTex said:

"Players with a YPT greater than 6.8 significantly outperformed their peers (and I didn’t even control for a touch minimum)! Which players from the 2020 class exceeded this threshold? Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, Anthony McFarland, Raymond Calais, and Javon Leake.

Does that mean players like JK Dobbins or CEH won’t be as successful right? No!" <------His disclaimer! This gives him an out (IMHO).

This is the biggest danger of using thresholds for analysis. The performance of the outliers is useful for describing only the outliers – it is not useful for comparing players, especially if a player is just on the other side of the arbitrary threshold we set. Consider if I had bumped the threshold down to 6.4 YPT, Dobbins would now be in our split and look like an outlier."

Is he using his own threshold???????

Is YPT different from YPA because this is what I have from 2019:

Calais 7.8

Leake 7.0

Dobbins 6.7

CEH 6.6

Taylor 6.3

Swift 6.2

Moss 6.0

McFarland 5.4

Akers 4.9

Personally, I'm sold on CEH as this is a no brainer for me.

Tex

 

YPT includes receptions.

Look, this is the problem with most studies and formulas when applied to football.  They start off with a bad hypothesis, focus on the wrong outcomes, or purposefully set the parameters in a way that achieve the desired result (which may be as simple as illustrating merely SOMETHING).

I actually love data.  Have spent an enormous amount of time working with it, which is why its easy for me to recognize issues.  If you show me a study that matters and doesnt have obvious plot holes, I'll be the first one to dig in.  Problem is the vast majority of studies that exist in the industry dont clear these very basic thresholds.

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5 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

There are no luxury picks in the NFL.

 

 Meh....if CHE blows a knee in preseason and never plays a snap ever.....KC is probably still a super bowl fav for the next 12 years or so...

KC had a ton of needs elsewhere and  as long as Mahomes is around...KC game plan will never really give an RB 20+ carries consistently .....CEH is the poster child for a luxury pick...

Edited by Stinkin Ref
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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

I actually think the ones desperate for narrative are posting so much because they have none at all other than he got drafted first and is short and possibly fat for his height.

You've made some good, data-based points in here as I've read along the last few pages and you've done a good job saying your piece, imo. Now I'm not saying you should never post in here again, but I think you're above this particular kind of post which just feels inflammatory for its own sake after the debate that already raged today.

I like reading your posts around here and it's been interesting watching you make the journey into dynasty opinions/analysis more recently. So I hope this doesn't come across as an attack or undue criticism, rock. It's just this post I'm talking about. Don't wanna see you get clipped is all.

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2 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

You've made some good, data-based points in here as I've read along the last few pages and you've done a good job saying your piece, imo. Now I'm not saying you should never post in here again, but I think you're above this particular kind of post which just feels inflammatory for its own sake after the debate that already raged today.

I like reading your posts around here and it's been interesting watching you make the journey into dynasty opinions/analysis more recently. So I hope this doesn't come across as an attack or undue criticism, rock. It's just this post I'm talking about. Don't wanna see you get clipped is all.

Hey ConnSKINS26, thanks for the sober sort of analysis to my posts and demeanor. I'm still not sure how I've come to take a hard line stance on Helaire or what sort of reaction I'm having to certain posts and how they're coming off. I really don't feel so hard line about Helaire's talents. I think he could wind up great despite my posts pointing to contrary evidence. He's a first-rounder in KC. He's not doomed, per se, because of negative attributes. I'm not doing a great job communicating in the thread and should probably just leave it at that.

Thanks for the pull-aside and calm check within reason. Also, some of the stuff I've posted is with tongue planted firmly in cheek. I hope that's not lost, but it seems to be. Anyway, that's enough out of me for a while. Thanks for taking the time, bud. 

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9 hours ago, EBF said:

He's big because he's extremely heavy for his height. Absolute weight and height are overrated.

Ray Rice was only 199 pounds at the combine, but ran harder than 217 pound Darren McFadden because of how their weight was distributed (5'8" vs. 6'2"). McFadden was tall and lean while Rice was short and compact. A tall back with an identical BMI to a shorter back will probably run with more functional power (i.e. Peterson, Jackson, Gurley), but in many cases a short back with a high BMI will run harder than a heavier back with a taller and leaner frame.

If Rice and MJD can be enduring three-down backs in the NFL at 199 and 207 pounds then I don't see how size is a legitimate issue for CEH. He's cut from the same mold physically and one look at him shows you that he's built like a bowling ball. Reid has had good success with lighter starters in his coaching career (Westbrook, McCoy, Charles). Clyde is not as fast as McCoy or Charles, but is bigger and more powerful. He has the agility to win in space like Westbrook and McCoy.

I don't know about height and weight being overrated, you hear a lot about bmi in fantasy circles. Hey, maybe they're all overrated. 

In context here though, CEH is a smaller back. I'm not saying too small or anything, 205 or whatever is fine. When you talk about size/speed score, this is based on his actual mass not his propositions. Even if he's short, he's a smaller back who's slow. I could see where somebody may have some concerns here. Even the midgets you mention, Ray Rice and MJD, while they weren't huge, they were at least pretty fast. 

 

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I have the consensus rookie picks ranked much closer this year compared to years past. Landing spot does make a difference. I have said it before, if CEH lands anywhere else I probably don’t consider him at 1.01. That does not mean I do not think he is a good football player, he just landed in the perfect spot that will potentially maximize his skill set IMO. I do not think he is an elite running back (nor do I think anyone else is in this class). But with the skills he does have (great route running and catching ability, great interior rusher, great lateral movement to gain extra yards) I think he presents great upside in where he was selected. Does that mean he is the right pick.....?

I never understood why we always have to choose one side or another. I agree with parts of both sides and am not 100% if he deserves to be the top pick or not (and nor should anyone really if you are looking at it honestly....speaking to both sides). If CEH swaps draft position with Swift he probably falls to 4-5 on my rankings. But I don’t think there are any running backs in this class with the talent to be immune from a bad landing spot. So in summary, IMO, he is a good enough running back to take advantage of a perfect landing spot for his skill set. We won’t know how that translates to FF points for awhile, but the upside is there.

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7 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

I never understood why we always have to choose one side or another. 

Just like anything in fantasy football nothing is written in stone before it happens. I think CEH is a top talent that landed in an ideal situation. Reasonable people can see things differently on either one of those propositions. Very few players in the history of the NFL draft were bust proof. But the NFL draft is a pretty efficient market and those that ignore it or try to be cute when downplaying it are probably not as smart as they think they are. 

My biggest "beef" in here is that a few posters (well maybe just one) creating false narratives about why people are considering taking CEH at the top of the draft and then mocking and then railing against those false narratives (he/she) created. It's a weird phenomenon acting smug while knocking down statements no one has made. 

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Just like anything in fantasy football nothing is written in stone before it happens. I think CEH is a top talent that landed in an ideal situation. Reasonable people can see things differently on either one of those propositions. Very few players in the history of the NFL draft were bust proof. But the NFL draft is a pretty efficient market and those that ignore it or try to be cute when downplaying it are probably not as smart as they think they are. 

My biggest "beef" in here is that a few posters (well maybe just one) creating false narratives about why people are considering taking CEH at the top of the draft and then mocking and then railing against those false narratives (he/she) created. It's a weird phenomenon acting smug while knocking down statements no one has made. 

I agree that the draft process is probably our most efficient method of grading players before they are drafted. A major factor that cannot be equated is work ethic/motivation and ability to improve and learn. There is no way to equate this. If you look at some of the major busts over the years if they had the work ethic/motivation it probably would have been a different result. All of these guys have talent, which one will maximize their talent? CEH also is highly regarded as a worker which I like as well.

And in regards to my statement "I never understood why we always have to choose one side or another", I am talking about being 100% certain on one side or another and not able to let their own stance allow them to see any validity of any points on the other side. 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

I assume you are talking about me. After looking into this a bit more I realized I got message boards confused; I have seen that reason elsewhere, not here. I haven’t been smug or railing at all, just offering something outside of the typical hype. I honestly felt like I had myself dialed back quite well...

I think asking questions can be very healthy in reaffirming your beliefs in a player, and maybe it might even allow you to consider other opinions. That’s one of the points of an online forum... to share ideas, ask questions, gather opinions...

Making up false narratives and then mocking those narratives is pretty smug imo. Maybe you should re-read the last few pages. A differing opinion or asking questions is fine. That's the main point of these boards after all.

Saying things like “But he was a first round pick” seems to be the only thing that matters here - when literally no one has said that, is not productive and comes across as some one trying to act in a condescending manner. That's just one of a few disingenuous statements in the last three pages I can copy and paste - I'll spare the rest.

If that's the way you want to act, that's fine as well, but I do feel like it's a bad shtick and may feel the need to call it out just because I'm kind of big on fairness and justice.

And I do get there are some things that should give pause to people looking to draft CEH, but in my personal opinion the potential reward far outweighs those risks. Others could easily make a point that the risk is much greater than I see it and not be "wrong" - so it's not about disagreement is about being genuine in your disagreement.

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7 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

I honestly don’t feel like raving about all of the positives that have been repeated by several different posters adds anything to the thread. I have 1.01 and I am weighing the options. CEH is very much a possibility. Part of my process is to get all the negative information about a prospect and either confirm, debunk, or gather some possible explanations. If you all prefer me to just talk about his lateral agility, Brian Westbrook comp, and Mahomes then I guess... I just don’t think that helps anyone see both sides to the CEH coin (and there are two sides to this coin).

I haven’t been too pleased with the counter arguments from some (“that’s garbage” “that doesn’t matter” “that’s a dumb article” okay... explain? Because some well respected writers say otherwise) however others have been quite good (thank you). 
 

Perhaps I’m over thinking it, but that’s what I do. This is a better behaved forum than others I frequent, but even this place has been edgy lately... (or perhaps just a small handful of posters)

I did.  You just created another false narrative and got annoyed by it.  Good stuff.

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9 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

I haven’t been too pleased with the counter arguments from some (“that’s garbage” 

Well I said that but it was in response to Johnny U's statement I’m sure that is a Debbie Downer for a lot of CEH owners.

I was not attacking rockaction for posting it in the first place.

That blurb did not scare me off because there was a lot of garbage in there (talking about other RBs getting carries) - I also laid out in subsequent posts what I felt was false. The only useful part of it was the speed score discussion because there is validity to that metric. I'm not convinced his combine 40 time is truly indicative of his speed though based on watching him run against SEC defenders. A guy like Montgomery last season actually looked slow on the football field - Helaire does not (but that is opinion of course).

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2 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Why do you (Or anyone else) think speed score doesn’t matter? I find this discussed a lot by at podcasters and in articles, referencing that it does matter 

Re-read what I wrote before I accuse you of creating another false narrative. ;):P

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2 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Why do you (Or anyone else) think speed score doesn’t matter? I find this discussed a lot by at podcasters and in articles, referencing that it does matter 

I liked you better when you were just "Dan"

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1 hour ago, Dr. BD said:

Not annoyed at all actually. I don’t let message boards get to me emotionally- there are a lot of very unhappy people looking to “kick the cat” online to make them feel better. Won’t be me. 
 

Assuming you went to the link the moment I posted it, it took you less than 8 minutes to read the entire thing, look at the data, and come back here to post about it (without any context). I seriously doubt it and didn’t really take a thing you said very seriously because of it. 
 

I’d love for someone to refute the actual data and explain why what he said doesn’t matter for CEH. Breakout Finder actually has a pretty good method and history. But perhaps I am asking too much

I'm honestly not sure what you are talking about, but the data in that article is meaningless.  Is anyone wondering whether CHE will post a single top 24 season in his career?  Would anyone be happy with it if he did?  We are analyzing a potential 1.01 pick and trying to determine if he will become a stud that can carry our fantasy teams to a few championships.  We are not wondering if he will justify a roster spot by performing just well enough, one single time in his career, to call himself one of the top 75% of starting RBs in the league.  The formula would be useful if it were analyzing low end guys, perhaps UDFAs and players drafted after the 4th round.  THOSE are players we would be interested in knowing whether they will post a top 24 season just once in their career.  But the author doesn't do that and the most likely reason why is because there isn't a meaningful result in that pool of data to confirm the point he wanted to make.

I truly thought all of this was obvious.  I needed about 8 seconds to notice it and I spent the other 7 minutes and 52 seconds reading the article just to make sure I wasn't missing anything- which I wasn't.

 

ETA: Here is a link to another article by this Keeley fella.  His second sentence states it more plainly: https://breakoutfinder.com/keeneys-running-back-model-coin-flipping-with-zack-moss-and-darrynton-evans/

Edited by Vandelay
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19 hours ago, Dr. BD said:

No RB takes 100%, but to justify taking CEH 1.01 I would want more than just a pass catching specialist. Goal line is a concern along with other things. I don’t doubt CEH is going to have a role in the offense, but to take him 1.01 you should be pretty confident you’re getting a stud; can’t screw that pick up. The general tone in here about CEH is that 2020 will be limited due to Williams, but watch out in 2021; stud. But... if CEH can’t play well enough or be versatile enough to sit Williams down, what changes in 2021, is my question there. I’m criticized for speculating he could be overrated, but no one questions the speculation that feeds the hype...

Player A

132 carries
557 yards rushing
3 TD

Player B

303 carries
1539 yards rushing
16 TD

Who do you think scored more in PPR?

 

 

 

 

Trick question, it was Derrick Henry outscoring Ekeler (RB6 on the year) by a whopping .328 points per game.  Gimmie 19.3 all day long at 1.01.  James White has produced multiple RB1/2 seasons as well.  Guys like this have awesome floors in full PPR leagues and can spike very quickly.  Cohen was RB29 rushing for 64/213/0.  Freeman RB19 at 184/656/2.  44/171/2 for Hunt as a freaking handcuff got you RB24.  And of course we all know what happens if he becomes CMc, Kamara, or Cook.

CEH is a no-brainer 1.01 in this format and he's a tossup at worst with JT for .5 leagues.

Edited by Hankmoody
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34 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

I understand the point you’re making here, and I understand that targets are worth way more than carries for fantasy purposes, but, with all due respect, your examples show that these types of RBs are quite volatile, not dependable
Considering weeks of1-17, PPR, excluding anyone who played less than 8 games, these are where those guys finished in PPG:

Ekler: 51 (2017), 26 (2018), 6 (2019, 92 receptions)

James White - going back only 5 years to leave out his rookie season: 22 (2019), 10 (2018 with 97 receptions), 34 (2017), 34 (2016), 33 (2015). Is 2 seasons really “multiple”? I guess it’s more than 1...

Tarik Cohen- 35 (2019), 15 (2018), 38 (2017)

 

2 of these 3 followed up a spike season with a dud. Ekler is TBD. I did not run Freeman’s stats. I don’t think he fits the same mold as these 3. If the wide belief is that CEH Should be 1.01 because he can be a dependable top 24 RB, sure I can get on board there; although I’d want slightly higher expectations for 1.01. Many here and/or elsewhere are saying top 10, top 5 on a consistent basis, which I’m not sure about that.

 

I can absolutely recognize the value of targets, but when that’s all you depend on you can see it can be quite volatile. Many here don’t think CEH will be a pass catcher only, but if he is, this lowers his floor quite a bit. 
 

Sure he could become a CMC, Kamara, Cook... but to focus on your claim that these types of RBs have “awesome floors”- I think I would disagree based on the above. Ekler is the only one we can maybe make that claim, but I would give him an “incomplete” grade until we get a 2020 data point. To be a Kamara, CMC, Cook, you need to “be the guy” (maybe not as much to be a Kamara), which many here believe he will be and that’s fine, but the narrative appears (to me) to be even if he isn’t he has a very high floor... I’m not sure I agree with that 100%

If he gets a situation like CMC, Kamara, Cook where he is the lead dog, then he does have a very high floor. At this point that is not a certainty. I can certainly agree that a team that spends a 1st round pick on a player will typically have plans to use them in a large capacity, so he has that going for him at least

Isn't this what were speculating about all of these rookies...what they could become? Is Taylor more immune to a two down thumper than CEH is a pass catching specialist? What if Ingram plays two more good years keeping Dobbins at bay like Hill was last year?

I think overall they all carry similar risk. I just happen to like the upside potential that CEH has in an offense that appears catered to his skillset. Again, it is on him to maximize that. But the Chiefs took a chance on him so I don't think it is unreasonable for me to do so as well. 

BTW I appreciate your points and am not attacking, I just think CEH carries as much risk if not less than the other prospects. They all have question marks and I have them graded pretty closely. 

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3 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

A major factor that cannot be equated is work ethic/motivation and ability to improve and learn. There is no way to equate this. If you look at some of the major busts over the years if they had the work ethic/motivation it probably would have been a different result.

And of course another major reason for busts is injuries and we can't know that either.

I just think of a guy like Guice and he was like the anti-draft capital pick at 2 or 3 where he always went because after Barkley you still had 2 first round RB's, three high second round RB's still on the board and Guice was a few picks from being a third. If you drafted Guice high, and I did, it's because you liked what you saw on tape. Period. The combine was solid but really no other reason to pick him at 2 or 3 except your scouting eye or putting confidence in someone else's scouting eye you trust. Two years into it no matter how right people may have been on his talent and how much work he put in if you drafted him and still have him he's been a major net negative as a roster/IR spot taker due to health.

From that same class you had Michel. He's been a bust but I don't think his knee has been right since he got into the league. I can't prove that of course but he looked explosive in college. We got credible reports before we drafted he had arthritic knee that could shorten his career. But what I did not expect that the possibility of getting banged up his second to last game in college, needing his knee drained in his first camp and missing first few weeks all leading to fact his knee had already declined. I can't prove that, that guy just does not look like he has same juice or explosion he had near the end of his college days.

And also from that class you got Penny who is a combo of issue of both work ethic and injuries. Year one was a little of both, year two the injuries took him out might again for most or all of this year.

Zero way to predict that stuff.

 

 

 

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The big one for me is Justin Blackmon. What a player at OSU. Saw him live in the Fiesta Bowl vs. Stanford and he was unstoppable. I think he had some very minor off-field stuff in college, but nothing that seemed too serious compared with what most college kids are getting up to. Then he gets to the NFL and just falls apart. No motivation to play. You can see that the talent is off the charts because he has some monster games when he's healthy and not suspended, but he can't keep it together. Takes his paychecks and bails. Rashaun Woods was the same, except without the same immediate success. The motivation to play football was not there.

This has nothing to do with CEH specifically, but is just a general reason not to get too carried away with an incoming class. After the NFL season ends, people spend the next 3-4 months studying the draft class and start to fall in love with the prospects, envisioning the best-case scenario while underplaying all the many things that can go wrong. There are so many ways these guys can underwhelm. Let's consider this RB cluster of CEH/Swift/Taylor/Akers/Dobbins/Dillon/Vaughn/Moss/Evans. When we look back on this class in a few years, there will probably be 1-2 legitimate stars from that group, a couple guys who had pockets of utility, and a few guys who fell completely off the face of the Earth.

Every now and then you get an amazing group like 2008 that yields a bevy of viable FF players (McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, CJ2K, Rice, Charles), but there are so many potholes these guys trip over. They can get hurt, get in trouble, unexpectedly get RBBCed by a draft pick, lose their motivation to play, or simply bust because their talent isn't up to par. You take guys who offer a solid risk/reward value and hope for the best. As far as Clyde goes, I'm fine with his startup/rookie ADP, but you can't really say he's insane value unless he becomes a perennial top 4-5 FF RB because he's already going ~RB10 in startups. It seems like a solid compromise between risk/reward, but not an amazing buy given that he's already not cheap.

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11 hours ago, Dr. BD said:

Why do you (Or anyone else) think speed score doesn’t matter? I find this discussed a lot by at podcasters and in articles, referencing that it does matter 

Hey Doc, for me it's not the speed score in of itself. The speed score was presented in this thread as the "end all be all" when we all should know that speed in the 40 is over-rated. People used speed to down play Dalvin Cook and we see how that turned out. The reason is simply because some players react differently when the lights come on. Watching CEH play, he seems to be one of those players.

Now if the speed score in question was used in conjunction with other data points then ok then we have something like pass blocking.....ok. That's a concern but that same concern applies to Taylor as well. So my point being that taking one point (speed score) and simply calling a player out for that one (IMHO flawed data point is just not a good stance to take).

Besides, he a shorter player with tree trunk legs, what were we expecting him to run and based on what? At the end of the day my friend, he's a baller. He ran through the SEC which is full of NFL caliber players.

Stay safe,

Tex

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The 40 time is always the headline of a combine workout, but look at what he did in the jumps.

Vertical Leap - 39.5"

Broad Jump - 10'3"

These are very good numbers.

When I used to spend a lot of time on combine data, I noticed that tall guys seemed to do better in the broad jump. Those massive 11' leaps typically come from those long-frame types like Justin Hunter, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, etc. It seems that their taller frame is a raw mechanical advantage in that particular drill. 11' is a freaky result, but 10' was roughly the cutoff for what I considered a "good" jump, and the number becomes more impressive the shorter the prospect.

For a stubby 5'7" guy like Clyde to pop a 10'3" is pretty impressive. Other short backs like Ray Rice, MJD, and Sproles were well behind that mark.

The vertical is meant to roughly measure lower body burst/explosive strength, whereas the broad jump seems related to stride length and north-south explosion. The 10'3" mark in this drill suggests that Clyde has some straight-line explosiveness despite the middling 40 time. Doesn't guarantee success (see: Abdullah), but it's yet another box you can check with this guy. To characterize him as a guy who's only being touted because of his landing spot is misguided, IMO. There are some nice things here from multiple angles: production, film, draft slot, workout profile. It's almost like the 40 time is the only thing he doesn't have, because he checks a lot of boxes.

Is he perfect? No, but if you whittle your list down to only include the perfect prospects, you might have 1-2 names in an entire draft class if you're lucky. Everyone that isn't Saquon, Luc, or Calvin has warts of some sort, and part of the challenge is deciding which ones are fatal and which ones don't really have to mean anything.

Edited by EBF
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The speed score was presented right along with the pass protection as the very next post. I'm not sure what people want in terms of posting. It looks they just want to circle wagons around a belief in a consensus about a flawed candidate. Happens in politics and in other walks of life, too. People that aren't very good thrust into positions of greatness are often given a free pass rather than the withering eye, depending on one's disposition. This sort of gang-up on posters to the dissenting side is silly, and Vandelay chasing Dr. BD around these forums is bad form, and it keeps going on in other threads. 

I don't like this thread, nor that. 

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13 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

D'Andre Swift is 5'8"... :scared:

We know, and it gave me public pause. He had been listed at about 5'9" until the combine. While height isn't the only thing to consider when looking at a running back, it is a thing, outliers to the contrary. 

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52 minutes ago, rockaction said:

The speed score was presented right along with the pass protection as the very next post. I'm not sure what people want in terms of posting. It looks they just want to circle wagons around a belief in a consensus about a flawed candidate. Happens in politics and in other walks of life, too. People that aren't very good thrust into positions of greatness are often given a free pass rather than the withering eye, depending on one's disposition. This sort of gang-up on posters to the dissenting side is silly, and Vandelay chasing Dr. BD around these forums is bad form, and it keeps going on in other threads. 

I don't like this thread, nor that. 

What are you talking about?  I'm new here and he posts a lot.  Far as I can see we've had a discussion about AJ Brown now this, both times discussing analytics.  Am I breaking some kind of code by reply to things?  I'm honestly asking.

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Just now, Vandelay said:

What are you talking about?  I'm new here and he posts a lot.  Far as I can see we've had a discussion about AJ Brown now this, both times discussing analytics.  Am I breaking some kind of code by reply to things?  I'm honestly asking.

I don't think so. I thought you'd intimated you'd been here before and took umbrage with him. If you're new, then carry on. Yes, debate is exactly what people want. Not a silent cloister of like-minded individuals. Carry on. 

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

I don't think so. I thought you'd intimated you'd been here before and took umbrage with him. If you're new, then carry on. Yes, debate is exactly what people want. Not a silent cloister of like-minded individuals. Carry on. 

I definitely did not.  I've read the forum for most of the offseason but thats it.  

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24 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Eh, it’s pretty obvious to me who it is, but it doesn’t matter. Not worth de-railing over

 

Everyone can carry on

Huh?  Is this what you were saying earlier today?  

I'm just going to reply to the stuff that interests me and I guess is anyone has an issue with that, they can let me know.

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

The speed score was presented right along with the pass protection as the very next post. I'm not sure what people want in terms of posting. It looks they just want to circle wagons around a belief in a consensus about a flawed candidate. Happens in politics and in other walks of life, too. People that aren't very good thrust into positions of greatness are often given a free pass rather than the withering eye, depending on one's disposition. This sort of gang-up on posters to the dissenting side is silly, and Vandelay chasing Dr. BD around these forums is bad form, and it keeps going on in other threads. 

I don't like this thread, nor that. 

How can the speed score be resented "right along with" the pass protection yet you state that it was in the "very next post"????? This is an oxymoron.  LOL, you're reaching and I was answering a legitimate question that was asked in this thread. I asked you to explain the "speed score" which you were too excited to post and yet you ignored it.

Not every posted about the speed score is a slight at you. 

Tex

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Just now, BigTex said:

How can the speed score be resented "right along with" the pass protection yet you state that it was in the "very next post"????? This is an oxymoron.  LOL, you're reaching and I was answering a legitimate question that was asked in this thread. I asked you to explain the "speed score" which you were too excited to post and yet you ignored it.

Not every posted about the speed score is a slight at you. 

Tex

You're getting into semantics here. The post after the speed score was the Pass Pro post from PFF. It was this or another thread. The speed score has been explained, I thought. I cut and pasted and linked to an article. Perhaps this is a different thread then.

And I know not every post about the speed score is a slight at me. Nor did I think Andy or Dr. Octopus were personalizing it. Nor did I think they were complaining about the speed score stat. They weren't. I think you're reading into a lot of what I'm saying.

I'm beginning to think that I'm really not conveying it very well. I can read. I know it's not a personal attack. I also know that people were genuinely using speed score wrong or not understanding what it meant. 

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Now I see it's back on page 12 that you asked for speed score. It's this article and this paragraph. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/speed-score-2020

Created by Bill Barnwell and introduced in Pro Football Prospectus and ESPN Insider back in 2008, Speed Score is one of Football Outsiders' metrics for evaluating running back prospects. It's built on the simple idea that smaller backs tend to run faster than larger backs, so we should be more impressed by a 4.5-second 40-yard dash from a 220-pound back than the same clock reading from a 170-pound back. As such, Speed Score incorporates a back's official time in the 40-yard dash with his weight to produce a measure of his speed given his size using this formula:

(Weight * 200)/(40 time^4)

The average running back who makes it to the NFL will have a Speed Score around 100.0, with most prospects at the position falling between 85.0 and 110.0.

Speed Score measures speed in the context of strength and power. It doesn't measure agility, receiving ability, or any of the other aspects related to the position. It does not claim that a larger player with a higher 40 time is somehow faster than a smaller player with a lower 40 time thanks to the power of exponentiation. Speed Score is useful because it's beneficial for a running back to be both fast and large.

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I think it is certainly an outlier that most running backs are not 5’7”. In fact it is an outlier at most positions and really most sports. The Spud Webb’s of the world typically do not make it to the finish line. It almost intrigues me more. CEH had an uphill climb all the way through and continued to make it until he was drafted at the end of the first round. Makes sense that he has been doubted and will continue to be until he produces at the final test. I understand the hesitation based on his size. He is an outlier.

At this point I have read so many things I can’t remember where it came from. But in regards to pass protection I believe the Chiefs were at the bottom of the league in asking their running backs sit in pass pro on passing plays (percentage wise). For what it is worth.

The guy is not a perfect prospect. But I feel he presents the most upside in the class along with Taylor. But both guys need things to fall their way (like in most cases in order to succeed). Another pre-draft video if anyone is bored explaining the strengths and weaknesses of the prospect that I liked:

Right here

* I am a fan of Taylor for comparison (also like Dobbins). My concerns about Taylor is he is not as good of a receiver as the Doc’s ratios make him out to be, the 18 or so fumbles he had, and the pass pro issues as well. As a runner he is tops in the class and certainly worth the gamble at 1.01. I just think CEH is also worth the gamble. Wouldn’t bat an eye at anyone taking Taylor, CEH, Dobbins or Lamb there to be honest.

Edited by King of the Jungle
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1 hour ago, King of the Jungle said:

I think it is certainly an outlier that most running backs are not 5’7”. In fact it is an outlier at most positions and really most sports. The Spud Webb’s of the world typically do not make it to the finish line. It almost intrigues me more. CEH had an uphill climb all the way through and continued to make it until he was drafted at the end of the first round. Makes sense that he has been doubted and will continue to be until he produces at the final test. I understand the hesitation based on his size. He is an outlier.

Another pre-draft video if anyone is bored explaining the strengths and weaknesses of the prospect that I liked:

Right here

I really, really don't want to make height too big a data point. I don't believe in that. It was just another reason to double-take. I know that small guys are okay in the NFL at times. That's not lost on me.

Nice video. Every time I see him, I want to retract what I've what I've said, but then I hesitate again. But I'd be happy to have him if I drafted him. I can see both sides of the argument. Enough said out of me. Please don't quote me or draw me back into the thread, and I think it will be a better thread for it. Less backpedaling, more evidence-based opinions.  

Edited by rockaction
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I like the back and forth because I am on the fence. Lucked into trading for a pick that ended up number one and am struggling on who to pick. See the videos like I posted and feel CEH is the pick. Look at the prototypical size, production and metrics and think Taylor Is the pick. Go with my gut and take Lamb because undecided on the RBs which is not great value. Anyway, thank you for everyone’s input. 

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Yeah, the problem with suggesting issues is that some tend to get on your case about it as if you are saying “because of this, the prospect will bust.” It’s always just a piece of the puzzle. Some prospects have more concerning pieces than others. Some don’t think it’s even a piece and that’s their choice. I think people tend to get too defensive when they are invested into a particular player, with an opinion or shares in fantasy football. I tend to side with CEH being more risky than he is being made out to be by many. The least risk running back for me is Dobbins, actually 

Edited by Johnny B. Goode
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11 minutes ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Yeah, the problem with suggesting issues is that some tend to get on your case about it as if you are saying “because of this, the prospect will bust.” It’s always just a piece of the puzzle. Some prospects have more concerning pieces than others. Some don’t think it’s even a piece and that’s their choice. I think people tend to get too defensive when they are invested into a particular player, with an opinion or shares in fantasy football. I tend to side with CEH being more risky than he is being made out to be by many. The least risk running back for me is Dobbins, actually 

I agree about Dobbins. Seems to be the back with the least questions and falls into a great organization and quarterback much like CEH. Patience will be needed with the stable they have but in five years I wouldn't bet against everyone looking back and thinking Dobbins was the best choice out of all of them from this class. 

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Just as an aside to all of this, I saw mentioned that Indy is basically as good a situation as KC which I strongly disagree with.

For starters, Reich has seemed to prefer to have a pass catching back while Reid has preferred to have a clear lead back that gets receptions, rushes, and goaline carries.  Marlon Mack was a decent receiver in college but Reich can't get him off the field in favor of a specialist fast enough in passing situations.

Also the ONLY thing that currently makes Indy a good situation is that they have a very strong O-line.  But O-line strength is VERY volatile year to year.  Just look at the Rams who had the highest graded O-line in NFL history in 2018, then were garbage in 2019.  A year before that the Cowboys had this young dominant line that was poised to go down as one of the all-time greats in NFL history with everyone young and under contract and now they are decidedly average.

O-lines are like fantasy defenses.  Somewhat consistent in season.  Wildly volatile year to year.  KC is a good spot because of the system and Indy is a good spot because of the O-line.  I have FAAAAAAR more confidence in KC/Mahomes remaining an elite system going forward than I have in Indy remaining an elite O-line.

Again, I've been high on CEH all along and think his talent is far underrated by many but I just wanted to take this quick aside and not let it slip past like we can assume the situations are similarly good.  2 years from now the situation in KC will likely still be one of the best in the NFL while in Indy I wouldn't be at all surprised if it was considered in the bottom 10 while they search for a QB with a coach that prefers a pass catching specialist and a line that inevitably regresses mightily.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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Before the draft I had CEH between 3 and 5 at RB, with Vaughn and Moss my 6 and 7 in a much lower tier. I figured CEH would stay at 5 in ADP rankings and that I'd have to spend a late 1st to get him, unless he went to a good landing spot and then I could see bumping him all the way. Vaughn, who I had basically one notch below him, also ended up landing in a great spot.

So, why am I bumping CEH to 1.01 and not Vaughn much higher? Or why not Taylor or Dobbins at 1.01 who also landed in what I think are good spots and who I had ranked higher initially?

Because it's a dance between where I have someone ranked, how I see their landing spot and opportunity, and what I think the market will require of me to pay to get them. In this case, I think the landing spot simply doesn't get any better than for CEH, and I had him in the same top RB tier to begin with. But the market basically requires me to pay 1.01 or 1.02, whether I would bump him there or not. For me I'd pay it, and have. Guys like Swift and Akers landed in terrible spots, IMO, so I am not willing to pay what the market is asking.

Does that mean I *rank* Vaughn higher? Sort of. I wouldn't pay Swift/Akers prices for Vaughn but I also wouldn't draft those first two. It's a dance.

Anyway it's not crazy for some of us to bump CEH even though we weren't necessarily banging the drum for him before. This is the most special offense we've maybe ever seen and it's young. 

Edited by barackdhouse
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4 hours ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Yeah, the problem with suggesting issues is that some tend to get on your case about it as if you are saying “because of this, the prospect will bust.” It’s always just a piece of the puzzle. Some prospects have more concerning pieces than others. Some don’t think it’s even a piece and that’s their choice. I think people tend to get too defensive when they are invested into a particular player, with an opinion or shares in fantasy football. I tend to side with CEH being more risky than he is being made out to be by many. The least risk running back for me is Dobbins, actually 

I think his outcomes are fairly even so this by definition limits his risk but that isn't necessarily the best way to look at it.  If you don't need a RB to play this year and you can have patience then he has some upside for future years but for this year he is basically a roster spot taker unless Baltimore gets the injury bug. 

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Just as an aside to all of this, I saw mentioned that Indy is basically as good a situation as KC which I strongly disagree with.

For starters, Reich has seemed to prefer to have a pass catching back while Reid has preferred to have a clear lead back that gets receptions, rushes, and goaline carries.  Marlon Mack was a decent receiver in college but Reich can't get him off the field in favor of a specialist fast enough in passing situations.

Also the ONLY thing that currently makes Indy a good situation is that they have a very strong O-line.  But O-line strength is VERY volatile year to year.  Just look at the Rams who had the highest graded O-line in NFL history in 2018, then were garbage in 2019.  A year before that the Cowboys had this young dominant line that was poised to go down as one of the all-time greats in NFL history with everyone young and under contract and now they are decidedly average.

O-lines are like fantasy defenses.  Somewhat consistent in season.  Wildly volatile year to year.  KC is a good spot because of the system and Indy is a good spot because of the O-line.  I have FAAAAAAR more confidence in KC/Mahomes remaining an elite system going forward than I have in Indy remaining an elite O-line.

Again, I've been high on CEH all along and think his talent is far underrated by many but I just wanted to take this quick aside and not let it slip past like we can assume the situations are similarly good.  2 years from now the situation in KC will likely still be one of the best in the NFL while in Indy I wouldn't be at all surprised if it was considered in the bottom 10 while they search for a QB with a coach that prefers a pass catching specialist and a line that inevitably regresses mightily.

Great point.  Marlon Mack had 65 receptions in college and wasn't thought of as a bad pass catcher coming into the league.

Even with Macks pass catching capability, Reich still leans on the 'specialists' in this case instead of riding the one back.

 

15 hours ago, EBF said:

The 40 time is always the headline of a combine workout, but look at what he did in the jumps.

Vertical Leap - 39.5"

Broad Jump - 10'3"

These are very good numbers.

When I used to spend a lot of time on combine data, I noticed that tall guys seemed to do better in the broad jump. Those massive 11' leaps typically come from those long-frame types like Justin Hunter, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, etc. It seems that their taller frame is a raw mechanical advantage in that particular drill. 11' is a freaky result, but 10' was roughly the cutoff for what I considered a "good" jump, and the number becomes more impressive the shorter the prospect.

For a stubby 5'7" guy like Clyde to pop a 10'3" is pretty impressive. Other short backs like Ray Rice, MJD, and Sproles were well behind that mark.

The vertical is meant to roughly measure lower body burst/explosive strength, whereas the broad jump seems related to stride length and north-south explosion. The 10'3" mark in this drill suggests that Clyde has some straight-line explosiveness despite the middling 40 time. Doesn't guarantee success (see: Abdullah), but it's yet another box you can check with this guy. To characterize him as a guy who's only being touted because of his landing spot is misguided, IMO. There are some nice things here from multiple angles: production, film, draft slot, workout profile. It's almost like the 40 time is the only thing he doesn't have, because he checks a lot of boxes.

Is he perfect? No, but if you whittle your list down to only include the perfect prospects, you might have 1-2 names in an entire draft class if you're lucky. Everyone that isn't Saquon, Luc, or Calvin has warts of some sort, and part of the challenge is deciding which ones are fatal and which ones don't really have to mean anything.

On player profiler CEH has an 89th percentile burst score because of his explosiveness in the Vertical Leap and Broad Jump.

That's what CEH is; he's an explosive player with elite lateral agility and elite vision.  As others in this thread have pointed out, he just may not have that elite top end speed.

I really like the arguments you bring to the table as they are always well thought out EBF.  Thanks for your contributions to the board.

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