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Percent Chance You Think Trump Will Be Impeached? Removed? 12.2.19 (1 Viewer)

What Percent Chance Do You Think President Trump Will Be Removed?

  • 91-100% He Will Be Removed

    Votes: 2 1.3%

  • 81-90% He Will Be Removed

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 71-80% He Will Be Removed

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 61-70% He Will Be Removed

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 51-60% He Will Be Removed

    Votes: 1 0.7%

  • 41-50% He Will Be Removed

    Votes: 6 4.0%

  • 31-40% He Will Be Removed

    Votes: 3 2.0%

  • 21-30% He Will Be Removed

    Votes: 7 4.7%

  • 11-20% He Will Be Removed

    Votes: 16 10.7%

  • 0-10% He Will Be Removed

    Votes: 115 76.7%
  • Total voters
    150
Joe Bryant

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
Trying to get a current pulse on where folks are.

And to be clear, this is not a "Do you he SHOULD" thing. It's a "Do you think he WILL" thing. 

 
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My feelings now are exactly the same as when I posted in September's thread on the topic:

[scooter] said:
60% he's impeached.

50% chance Mitch McConnell allows a trial.

0.0% chance he's removed from office.

And that applies to all current, former, and future crimes committed by Trump.
Click to expand...
 
Can't imagine that its not pretty close to 100% impeached as simply holding public hearing is pretty much a point of no return.  And I'd think it is close to 0% for removal at this point.  I think removal still requires something new (not necessarily more). 

 
Impeached yes

50/50ish in removal but I think something will give eventually, perhaps whatever he does next, and Republicans will start to break with him. If the dam breaks it will be a deluge.

 
He will be impeached but almost zero chance he is removed by the Senate. I’m hopeful that one of the key figures that have ignored subpoenas testifies or some of the documents being withheld get released and it forces the Senate to re-evaluate 

 
Weebs210 said:
Could we get a link for current crimes committed. TIA.
Click to expand...
Don't forget, you don't have to commit a crime to be impeached. Even if one was necessary, we've got plenty to pick from. Below is from a link Maurile posted in another thread:

Senate Republicans are setting a dangerous precedent that threatens the republic itself. I'm not naive enough to think they would hold Democratic presidents to the low standard they've applied to Trump, but all future presidents will be able to point to Trump to justify:

a. Soliciting foreign attacks on our elections;
b. Using federal appropriations or other resources to pressure foreign governments to help them win reelection;
c. Implementing an across-the-board refusal to comply with any congressional oversight at all;
d. Firing the heads of the government's top law enforcement agencies for allowing investigations of the president;
e. Retaliating against whistleblowers and witnesses who testify before Congress;
f. Investigating investigators who investigate the president;
g. Attempting to retaliate against American companies perceived as insufficiently supportive of the president;
h. Attempting to award the president's own company federal contracts;
i. Using personal devices, servers or applications for official communications;
j. Communicating secretly with foreign leaders, with foreign governments knowing things about White House communications that our own government doesn't know;
k. Abandoning steadfast allies abruptly without prior warning to Congress to cede territory to Russian influence;
l. Destroying or concealing records containing politically damaging information;
m. Employing white nationalists and expressing empathy for white nationalists after an armed rally in which one of them murdered a counter protester and another shot a gun into a crowd;
n. Disseminating Russian disinformation;
o. Covering for the murder of a journalist working for an American news outlet by a foreign government that is a major customer of the president's private business;
p. Violating human rights and international law at our border;
q. Operating a supposed charity that was forced to shut down over its unlawful activities;
r. Lying incessantly to the American people;
s. Relentlessly attacking the free press;
t. Spending 1/4 of days in office visiting his own golf courses and 1/3 of them visiting his private businesses;
u. Violating the Emoluments Clauses of the U.S. Constitution;
w. Misusing the security clearance process to benefit his children and target perceived enemies;
x. Drawing down on government efforts to combat domestic terrorism in order to appease a segment of his base;
y. Refusing to aggressively investigate and build defenses against interference in our election by Russia, after the country helped him win an election;
z. Engaging in a documented campaign of obstruction of a Special Counsel's investigation.
aa. Lying about a hush money payoff and omitting his debt to his attorney for that payoff from his financial disclosure report (which is a crime if done knowingly and willfully);
bb. Coordinating with his attorney in connection with activities that got the attorney convicted of criminal campaign finance violations;
cc. Interfering in career personnel actions, which are required by law to be conducted free of political influence;
dd. Refusing to fire a repeat Hatch Act offender after receiving a recommendation of termination from the president's own Senate-confirmed appointee based on dozens of violations;
ee. Calling members of Congress names and accusing them of treason for conducting oversight;
ff. Attacking states and private citizens frequently and in terms that demean the presidency (see Johnson impeachment);
gg. Using the presidency to tout his private businesses and effectively encouraging a party, candidates, businesses and others to patronize his business;
hh. Causing the federal government to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars at his businesses and costing the American taxpayers well over $100 million on boondoggle trips to visit his properties;
ii. Hosting foreign leaders at his private businesses;
jj. Calling on the Justice Department to investigate political rivals;
kk. Using the presidency to endorse private businesses and the books of various authors as a reward for supporting the president;
ll. Engaging in nepotism based on a flawed OLC opinion;
mm. Possible misuse of appropriated funds by reallocating them in ways that may be illegal;
nn. Repeatedly criticizing American allies, supporting authoritarian leaders around the world, and undermining NATO; and
oo. etc.

None of the Republican Senators defending Trump could say with a straight face that they would tolerate a Democratic president doing the same thing. But, given this dangerous precedent, they may have no choice if they ever lose control of the Senate. Is that what they want?

And this is only what Trump did while the remote threat of Congressional oversight existed. If the Senate acquits him, he will know for certain there is nothing that could ever lead to Congress removing him from office. And what he does next will similarly set precedents.

At this point, I would remind these unpatriotic Senators of the line "you have a republic if you can keep it," but a variation on this line may soon be more apt when Trump redoubles his attack on our election: You have a republic, if you can call this a republic.

 
There are two reasons he might not be impeached:

1. Health issues may cause him to resign before he's impeached.
2. The Ari Fleischer deal may come to fruition.

I'd say they have a combined chance of ~5% (nearly all of it in the health category), so that leaves a 95% chance of impeachment.

There's a 0% chance he'll be removed on currently likely articles. There's maybe a 3% chance that some new smoking gun will arise that even Republicans will think warrants removal.

So put me down for 95% impeachment, 3% removal.

 
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0% impeached, Pelosi doesn’t want a partisan impeachment vote losing some Democrats to the Republican side. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
Can you please elaborate on what you mean there?
Click to expand...
Civil political discourse has been dead, buried and decomposed for some time now, a large majority of people view politics as "us vs. them" with no chance at compromise, the news outlets are a joke because of how slanted they are, and honestly, I feel as though this nation is teetering on some type of cliff, and while some are trying to pull us back, far too many have gotten out to push.

 
Kal El said:
Civil political discourse has been dead, buried and decomposed for some time now, a large majority of people view politics as "us vs. them" with no chance at compromise, the news outlets are a joke because of how slanted they are, and honestly, I feel as though this nation is teetering on some type of cliff, and while some are trying to pull us back, far too many have gotten out to push.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree those are some legit problems there. Hoping we can overcome but I hear you. 

 
Likely impeached.  Zero chance he gets removed.  
 

Rudy could testify at the senate hearing that Trump told him to tell Zelensky he’s not getting the money until he announces the investigations.  He could have tapes of it.   And this Senate would still not remove him.  

 
I say there’s a 5% chance of removal. Only chance is Mitt Romney cobbling a few republican votes together covertly. 

 
FF Ninja said:
Don't forget, you don't have to commit a crime to be impeached. Even if one was necessary, we've got plenty to pick from. Below is from a link Maurile posted in another thread:

Senate Republicans are setting a dangerous precedent that threatens the republic itself. I'm not naive enough to think they would hold Democratic presidents to the low standard they've applied to Trump, but all future presidents will be able to point to Trump to justify:

a. Soliciting foreign attacks on our elections;
b. Using federal appropriations or other resources to pressure foreign governments to help them win reelection;
c. Implementing an across-the-board refusal to comply with any congressional oversight at all;
d. Firing the heads of the government's top law enforcement agencies for allowing investigations of the president;
e. Retaliating against whistleblowers and witnesses who testify before Congress;
f. Investigating investigators who investigate the president;
g. Attempting to retaliate against American companies perceived as insufficiently supportive of the president;
h. Attempting to award the president's own company federal contracts;
i. Using personal devices, servers or applications for official communications;
j. Communicating secretly with foreign leaders, with foreign governments knowing things about White House communications that our own government doesn't know;
k. Abandoning steadfast allies abruptly without prior warning to Congress to cede territory to Russian influence;
l. Destroying or concealing records containing politically damaging information;
m. Employing white nationalists and expressing empathy for white nationalists after an armed rally in which one of them murdered a counter protester and another shot a gun into a crowd;
n. Disseminating Russian disinformation;
o. Covering for the murder of a journalist working for an American news outlet by a foreign government that is a major customer of the president's private business;
p. Violating human rights and international law at our border;
q. Operating a supposed charity that was forced to shut down over its unlawful activities;
r. Lying incessantly to the American people;
s. Relentlessly attacking the free press;
t. Spending 1/4 of days in office visiting his own golf courses and 1/3 of them visiting his private businesses;
u. Violating the Emoluments Clauses of the U.S. Constitution;
w. Misusing the security clearance process to benefit his children and target perceived enemies;
x. Drawing down on government efforts to combat domestic terrorism in order to appease a segment of his base;
y. Refusing to aggressively investigate and build defenses against interference in our election by Russia, after the country helped him win an election;
z. Engaging in a documented campaign of obstruction of a Special Counsel's investigation.
aa. Lying about a hush money payoff and omitting his debt to his attorney for that payoff from his financial disclosure report (which is a crime if done knowingly and willfully);
bb. Coordinating with his attorney in connection with activities that got the attorney convicted of criminal campaign finance violations;
cc. Interfering in career personnel actions, which are required by law to be conducted free of political influence;
dd. Refusing to fire a repeat Hatch Act offender after receiving a recommendation of termination from the president's own Senate-confirmed appointee based on dozens of violations;
ee. Calling members of Congress names and accusing them of treason for conducting oversight;
ff. Attacking states and private citizens frequently and in terms that demean the presidency (see Johnson impeachment);
gg. Using the presidency to tout his private businesses and effectively encouraging a party, candidates, businesses and others to patronize his business;
hh. Causing the federal government to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars at his businesses and costing the American taxpayers well over $100 million on boondoggle trips to visit his properties;
ii. Hosting foreign leaders at his private businesses;
jj. Calling on the Justice Department to investigate political rivals;
kk. Using the presidency to endorse private businesses and the books of various authors as a reward for supporting the president;
ll. Engaging in nepotism based on a flawed OLC opinion;
mm. Possible misuse of appropriated funds by reallocating them in ways that may be illegal;
nn. Repeatedly criticizing American allies, supporting authoritarian leaders around the world, and undermining NATO; and
oo. etc.

None of the Republican Senators defending Trump could say with a straight face that they would tolerate a Democratic president doing the same thing. But, given this dangerous precedent, they may have no choice if they ever lose control of the Senate. Is that what they want?

And this is only what Trump did while the remote threat of Congressional oversight existed. If the Senate acquits him, he will know for certain there is nothing that could ever lead to Congress removing him from office. And what he does next will similarly set precedents.

At this point, I would remind these unpatriotic Senators of the line "you have a republic if you can keep it," but a variation on this line may soon be more apt when Trump redoubles his attack on our election: You have a republic, if you can call this a republic.
Click to expand...
Wont go over this list point by point, but just some of the items listed here are absurd enough to discredit the entire thing.

Things like: 

s. Relentlessly attacking the free press;

t. Spending 1/4 of days in office visiting his own golf courses and 1/3 of them visiting his private businesses;

These are not close to impeachable...Yet they made the list.  And this is one big reason why the left looks silly and are embarrassing themselves with this kind of approach.

 
supermike80 said:
Wont go over this list point by point, but just some of the items listed here are absurd enough to discredit the entire thing.

Things like: 

s. Relentlessly attacking the free press;

t. Spending 1/4 of days in office visiting his own golf courses and 1/3 of them visiting his private businesses;

These are not close to impeachable...Yet they made the list.  And this is one big reason why the left looks silly and are embarrassing themselves with this kind of approach.
Click to expand...
On their own...are they impeachable?  No, not sure anyone was making the case that on its own they were.

The left looks silly because someone on a message board mentioned it in a list of things he has done that are pretty awful?

You picked out 2...out of about 40 things...and its the left that are embarrassing themselves and not Trump?

 
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supermike80 said:
Wont go over this list point by point, but just some of the items listed here are absurd enough to discredit the entire thing.
Click to expand...
Sorry, but that's an asinine assertion. You can disagree with those two items you listed below, but claiming that two items you disagree with means you have to ignore the entire list is just absurd.

supermike80 said:
Things like: 

s. Relentlessly attacking the free press;

t. Spending 1/4 of days in office visiting his own golf courses and 1/3 of them visiting his private businesses;

These are not close to impeachable...Yet they made the list.  And this is one big reason why the left looks silly and are embarrassing themselves with this kind of approach.
Click to expand...
You don't think that conduct is clearly out of bounds? Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.

 
NREC34 said:
I say there’s a 5% chance of removal. Only chance is Mitt Romney cobbling a few republican votes together covertly. 
Click to expand...
FWIW, they only need 3 Republicans in order to do a blind vote. I would hope IF that happened, some Senators would stand up for democracy and do the right thing rather than keep up this party over country crap. I mean, it's already sad they wouldn't do that in an open vote, but at least a blind vote would crack the door for those afraid to openly oppose corruption and the desecration of the constitution... smh.

 
supermike80 said:
I don't agree with you, even a little bit.  It's embarrassing.  Stop with the "But Trump is mean" angle.
Click to expand...
But it goes beyond being mean.  It has created a dangerous mistrust in the media and intelligence community.  Much of which is completely unfounded.  A huge part of the divide in this country is being pushed by him.  Im not sure how that can even be denied at this point.  He pushes completely false ideas, and calls other things fake just because they are critical of him.  That is not healthy for the country at all.

 
sho nuff said:
But it goes beyond being mean.  It has created a dangerous mistrust in the media and intelligence community.  Much of which is completely unfounded.  A huge part of the divide in this country is being pushed by him.  Im not sure how that can even be denied at this point.  He pushes completely false ideas, and calls other things fake just because they are critical of him.  That is not healthy for the country at all.
Click to expand...
It obviously goes beyond the hes mean angle.

So stay on that, the rest of it is hurting the argument and is utterly distracting

 
supermike80 said:
It obviously goes beyond the hes mean angle.

So stay on that, the rest of it is hurting the argument and is utterly distracting
Click to expand...
I don't think it hurts the other arguments at all.  But understand its what some will fixate one because the other things can't be refuted.

 
supermike80 said:
I do.  The republicans tee off on it...
Click to expand...
What Republicans do doesn't make an argument invalid.  Republicans do a lot of things...like claim Crowdstrike is an issue and owned by a Ukranian.  Completely spread actual lies...somehow doesn't hurt their argument...but correctly calling out Trump's actions invalidates legitimate concerns.  Its quite an interesting thing going on.

 
sho nuff said:
What Republicans do doesn't make an argument invalid.  Republicans do a lot of things...like claim Crowdstrike is an issue and owned by a Ukranian.  Completely spread actual lies...somehow doesn't hurt their argument...but correctly calling out Trump's actions invalidates legitimate concerns.  Its quite an interesting thing going on.
Click to expand...
Not invalid.....embarrassing.   Takes focus away from the real issues.  Trump being mean isn't a real issue.

 
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I'd be curious in a poll asking something like "If Senate Republicans are presented with indisputable evidence that Trump did something for which he should definitely be removed from office, will they vote to remove him?" I'm thinking they wouldn't. 

 
VandyMan said:
I'd be curious in a poll asking something like "If Senate Republicans are presented with indisputable evidence that Trump did something for which he should definitely be removed from office, will they vote to remove him?" I'm thinking they wouldn't. 
Click to expand...
You should do that here..cause what this board is seriously lacking is a poll regarding trump's impeachment.

 
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sho nuff said:
But it goes beyond being mean.  It has created a dangerous mistrust in the media and intelligence community.  Much of which is completely unfounded.  A huge part of the divide in this country is being pushed by him.  Im not sure how that can even be denied at this point.  He pushes completely false ideas, and calls other things fake just because they are critical of him.  That is not healthy for the country at all.
Click to expand...
This is not a phenomenon of Trump.  He may play into it, but these entities have done the heavy lifting themselves during and before Trump was ever a candidate.

 
FF Ninja said:
a. Soliciting foreign attacks on our elections;
Click to expand...
🙄

Knowing bad things about the Clinton campaign was not an attack on our elections.  The Clinton campaign's promotion of Donald Trump in the primary, and the DNC's heavy-handedness against the Sanders campaign, were far greater "attacks on our elections" than the publication of emails. 

Damaging, true information about politicians is not attacks on our elections.  True information isn't an attack on anything.  It's just the truth.  Stop stigmatizing it as an "attack".  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
VandyMan said:
I'd be curious in a poll asking something like "If Senate Republicans are presented with indisputable evidence that Trump did something for which he should definitely be removed from office, will they vote to remove him?" I'm thinking they wouldn't. 
Click to expand...
I think that if the rumored Russian fun time tapes were released today they would be shrugged off. I bet they'd drop out of the headlines in a week tops.

 
sho nuff said:
I don't think it hurts the other arguments at all.  But understand its what some will fixate one because the other things can't be refuted.
Click to expand...
I think it badly damages the entire argument when a list is presented and some of the things listed are wrong. And it has nothing to do with anything that can't be refuted.

That's just how things work. 

If I'm looking at a "Top 10 BBQ Restaurants In The US" list and 2 of the spots listed I know are awful, I discount the entire list and the author of the list loses my trust. I think it's how lists work. :shrug:  

The reality is the author hurt himself. For no other reason than being sloppy. They could have made a much stronger argument cleaning up the list. But when the list is clearly wrong, people lost faith in the entire list. Be it football or politics or movies or whatever. 

 
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Joe Bryant said:
Do you mean the media is overly friendly to Trump?
Click to expand...
I mean that at this point I think it would be just another scandal to add to the pile and the public would move on to the next shocking development in a relatively short amount of time.

 
Joe Bryant said:
I think it badly damages the entire argument when a list is presented and some of the things listed are wrong. And it has nothing to do with anything that can't be refuted.

That's just how things work. 

If I'm looking at a "Top 10 BBQ Restaurants In The US" list and 2 of the spots listed I know are awful, I discount the entire list and the author of the list loses my trust. I think it's how lists work. :shrug:  

The reality is the author hurt himself. For no other reason than being sloppy. They could have made a much stronger argument cleaning up the list. But when the list is clearly wrong, people lost faith in the entire list. Be it football or politics or movies or whatever. 
Click to expand...
Agreed. He exceeded the alphabet with reasons to impeach. Might as well stick with only the strongest cases when there are more than ten legitimate reasons. 

 
I'm in the 91-100% group that think the Dems vote for impeachment.

However - I'm in the 41-50% group on the chances for removal. Weird huh?

So odd to submit my votes and then see how much more likely I think removal is than the anti-Trump majority here. After all, I'm having daily debates that there isn't enough right now to lead to his removal. But I definitely think there's a decent enough chance that something could come out to turn the tide. People here really are cynical. Most in this forum are dead set in favor of impeachment AND removal. Yet most give it virtually no chance of happening. Take my word (I know most won't), if something stronger is uncovered in terms of evidence than what has come out so far, Trump will be removed from office. I also know that many here think what's been presented so far should be enough and that since it's not, that nothing to come will ever be enough. Trump's removal is still a very real possibility. Without more though, we're right where we should be - which is not enough for removal.

 
Joe Bryant said:
I think it badly damages the entire argument when a list is presented and some of the things listed are wrong. And it has nothing to do with anything that can't be refuted.

That's just how things work. 

If I'm looking at a "Top 10 BBQ Restaurants In The US" list and 2 of the spots listed I know are awful, I discount the entire list and the author of the list loses my trust. I think it's how lists work. :shrug:  

The reality is the author hurt himself. For no other reason than being sloppy. They could have made a much stronger argument cleaning up the list. But when the list is clearly wrong, people lost faith in the entire list. Be it football or politics or movies or whatever. 
Click to expand...
My point Joe entirely.  Thank you for articulating it in a much better manner than I did. 

 
unckeyherb said:
This is not a phenomenon of Trump.  He may play into it, but these entities have done the heavy lifting themselves during and before Trump was ever a candidate.
Click to expand...
Maybe not all his...but he has pushed it further than anyone...to the point that people believe his lies before believing those entities.  And no, its not those entities fault.

 
0% for both.

It was crazy when the results popped up and 90-100 was leading.

 
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