Great, now I gotta sell Preston Williams.
It'd be nice if either of them could jump over a double A battery.
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WR Tee Higgins, CIN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
It'd be nice if either of them could jump over a double A battery.
az_prof
Footballguy
I have learned over the years that these physical metrics are among the least likely to correlate with future success. Higgins is supposedly not a jumper but watch his tape and you see him high pointing jump balls and aggressively pulling the ball down over DBs. Some guys can run and jump in running shorts but they don't do the same on the football field and other guys run faster with their football gear on, or so it seems.
tombonneau
Footballguy
I just re-watched career highlights:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBg_iKV4-xE
I mean yeah of course they are highlights, but come on. This kid just goes up and gets the ball. A QB's best friend.
As far as circumstances, what WR in this draft is stepping into a better scenario? If Burrow is even at the Stafford/Dalton level of competence Higgins is set up to be a very good WR1 for years. The path is there. He just needs to actually deliver the goods.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bauQfZ8OmLkI just re-watched career highlights:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBg_iKV4-xE
I mean yeah of course they are highlights, but come on. This kid just goes up and gets the ball. A QB's best friend.
As far as circumstances, what WR in this draft is stepping into a better scenario? If Burrow is even at the Stafford/Dalton level of competence Higgins is set up to be a very good WR1 for years. The path is there. He just needs to actually deliver the goods.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Well yes that was my caveat. Of course every first round bust WR has a fantastic highlight reel. But funny you post a Treadwell reel where he displays a completely opposite game as Higgins. He is just a bigger dude manhandling players. Even the jump ball early in that clip he isn't high pointing it and doesn't time his jump particularly well.
Just zipping back through Higgins you can see him making NFL caliber high point jump ball grabs like this
https://youtu.be/WBg_iKV4-xE?t=57
and this
https://youtu.be/WBg_iKV4-xE?t=245
and this
https://youtu.be/WBg_iKV4-xE?t=173
Sure, but just because he can high point a ball doesn't really prove much. Doctson, JJAW, Kevin White (to name but a few) all had that trait with better athleticism and still failed.
My problem with Higgins is he's a horrible athlete and meh route-rounner. The NFL tends to eat those guys up pretty quickly. We shall see though.
One of these things is not like the other, unless you are talking about playoff wins.
tombonneau
Footballguy
tombonneau
Footballguy
I'm no amateur scout and I've got plenty wrong but the guy looks the part to me.
End of the day, who are we kidding: It's all a coin flip anyway.
Faust
MVP
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I was disappointed to miss out on Pittman and Jefferson in my most recent rookie draft. Had 2.01. Earlier in the offseason in similar situations I have pulled the trigger on Vaughn instead of Higgins. But had to go Higgins this time. I feel bad I only got one share. Got tons of Pittman and Jefferson, a couple Aiyuks and Edwards.
But I've had Higgins pegged as sort of a sleeper that seems to be under the radar relative to this class and these rookie drafts. I might even consider targeting him in a couple trade offers and see where it goes. I have a couple leagues where I'm loaded at WR and probably need to flip for a RB, but maybe Higgins could be a secondary piece coming back.
But I've had Higgins pegged as sort of a sleeper that seems to be under the radar relative to this class and these rookie drafts. I might even consider targeting him in a couple trade offers and see where it goes. I have a couple leagues where I'm loaded at WR and probably need to flip for a RB, but maybe Higgins could be a secondary piece coming back.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I've been in this thread a bunch, and now that all my rookie drafts are done, I officially have 0 shares of Higgins. Kind of disappointed in that. He just never slipped to me in the positions I was in. Plus I never felt the need to trade up since I could just grab the one or two that always slipped. That was usually Shenault or Edwards. Kind of that early 2nd range before guys like Mims, Shenault, Edwards. Higgins was always the guy to go first of that group, never last like the others. So I have shares of all of those other WR's. Still think he'll be good though.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not to pick nits, but it seems like you’re underrating Stafford & even Andy Dalton a bit here.
Like Matt Stafford’s 2015 season where he completed 67% of his 592 attempts for 4200+ yards, 32 TD/13 Int & even had a RuTD for good measure.
In 2013 Andy Dalton threw 4200+ yards with 32/20.
both of these dudes have been kind of snake bitten. A lot of seasons of bad, imbalanced or injured teams around them, and several seasons where they were hurt.
i don’t disagree with your statement in a literal sense, as yes Higgins could be very good if Burrow plays at that level. But you seem to assert this comparison as a “bare minimum” for competence when these are two very competent QBs, both of whom had their fair share of high levels of play over the years.
As for Higgins, he has a crowded path to success. If AJ Green had departed I’d like his chances of being relevant for 2020 a lot more than with Green & Boyd In the way. I expect he’ll be the WR3 ahead of Ross, but Ross is the burner, so (assuming he’s still there) will still have a role, probably at the expense of some of those Higgins snaps. Not sure what happens to Ross & Tate - one will likely be a casualty in this.
2021 is when i would realistically hope for fantasy-relevant season for Higgins assuming he & Boyd are the top 2 WRs on the team at that point. His highlight reel is impressive. He’s long and could be a legit RZ target at 6’r”.. But as I understand it he was a day 2 pick because he lacks burst & his route running isn’t great. The latter can be improved. The former might be the difference between being a guy who can get open or being JAG.
I’m interested in seeing how things play out in Cinci. Higgins is an interesting part of it, but he has to be able to get off the line for him to live up to these lofty comps to all-pro WRs.
he’s getting lots of love in those links Faust provided, but then, lots of players get lots of love before they’ve played for the team that drafted them. Time will tell with Higgins,.
Johnny B. Goode
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s the expectation of FF owners, sure.
Boyd will undoubtedly have a large target share, and assuming Green is back to health, he will also command a large target share. And Cinci throws to the TE, too.
I’m not sure how realistic folks are with expectations about Higgins for 2020. You’re clearly optimistic. I want to see how he develops and whether he can get better burst off the line.
basically the exact things that made him a day 2 pick are his biggest risks. If his route running improves & his burst is better than expected he certainly has the size & ability to be a good WR in the NFL. I’m not knocking the dude. I just think he has some challenges.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Ross has been a big dissapointment, so I wouldn't call that much of a battle. Barring injury of course.
I'll knock him. He's a very subpar athlete and not an advanced route runner to balance that out. Two very good receivers ahead of him, as well as Ross who flashed last year when healthy.
Treadwell 2.0.
az_prof
Footballguy
I'm not an expert but I re-watched his highlight reels yesterday and what I noticed was that he ran the full tree route. How people actually judge "good routes" is a bit obtuse to me but he certainly is multi-dimensional and can run every type of route. I also was impressed by how he fought for jump balls and by his great hands. I do agree that he doesn't have the kind of speed to be a great RAC guy after the catch but I see a very high floor and a good, albeit it not elite, celing.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I believe they were trying to trade Ross. That said, he is a burner who has speed off the line and can get deep in a hurry. So while I don’t think it’s necessarily a battle between Higgins and Ross, I do think they will eat into each other snaps.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I am not a route running expert… I just know what I read from people who gave evaluations of Higgins after the draft.. What seemed like a more immediate concern was his inability to get off the line quickly.
that one seems like a big hurdle for college players transitioning to the NFL.
players can improve on that like they can improve on anything… But from what I had read, that’s why he was a second a receiver.
that said, as the third receiver, he may face subpar coverage which could lessen the impact of this. So again, I’m going to hold out judgment until I’ve seen him play.
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Johnny B. Goode
Footballguy
I’ve actually read his routes are very well run. He may struggle with the shorter route due to potential separation issues with press coverage, which needs to improve. He has enough speed at the line, and bulk to work through it, so it’s an opportunity that he can overcome with some work. Many WRs selected higher than him struggle worse at this.
I was just surprised you said he would have difficulty seeing the field. Everything I read says he will be in the starting outside role. Boyd stays in the slot and AJ Green on the other side.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'm skeptical that AJ Green will bounce back to form. I think there is more opportunity for Higgins to be FF relevant in 2020 than most people think.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
that may be the case. We’ll see what he looks like when games start.
that may be because I didn’t say that. So honestly I’m surprised to hear that I said that too.
I have read that he’s expected to start on the outside.
i also know for certain Boyd will be in the slot & Green on the outside as the #1-2 receivers.
and I’ve read that Ross, and to some degree Tate, will also get looks. I speculate that Tate & Ross’s looks will not come at the expense of Green or Boyd, which leaves Higgins.
So what I see as an already lower (WR3) target share could still be lower if they’re rotating in other players. At this time, that seems to be what’s in the tea leaves. I don’t claim to have some special speed dial to the coaches or to be clairvoyant. It’s just how it looks to me.
It’s possible that Ross or Tate could be “camp casualties” (so to speak. There may not be “camp”) and AJ Green could certainly get hurt again. Heck no guarantee Boyd stays healthy, opening up the door for more targets for Higgins, if Higgins impresses in game action. Players often do often earn more targets / touches. I concede that any of that could happen.
also possible is Burrow is a 1st year bust, hurting all Cinci WRs. I think this is a low probability outcome since he looks to be an NFL-ready QB, but I’ve been wrong about that with QBs before.
as of now Higgins seems like a 40-50 reception/600 yard/4-5 TD kind of guy. If I were a Higgins owner and got that production in 2020 I’d be thrilled, as it would bode well for 2021 & beyond.
best of luck to Higgins shareholders.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This is, in my opinion, the clearest path to Higgins success in 2020.
the challenge with this is if AJ Green does go down or is a shell of his former self, how will Higgins do against top tier NFL DBs?
for his development I think it would be better if Green & Boyd were both healthy/competent to take the pressure off.
I own a Higgins share and I expect Ross to start over him most, if not all of the season. Ross plays a field stretching role that Higgins cannot dream of. Think of Ross as Will Fuller and AJG as DeAndre Hopkins.
Higgins will challenge AJG, then be the 2021 replacement for Green unless Ross is downright brutal.
Higgins will challenge AJG, then be the 2021 replacement for Green unless Ross is downright brutal.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
You give John Ross too much credit. I'll throw out his rookie year. The last two years he has 49 receptions and 716 yards. Let's not forget, while he had 7 TDs in 2018 he only had 21 receptions and 210 yards in 13 games. I fully expect AJG and Higgins to start with Boyd in the slot.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
sorry, you expect Ross to start over Boyd? That would be a very odd development, so I just want to make sure I’m understanding you correctly here.
Ross was a guy the Bengals were reportedly trying to deal, so I don’t feel like they’re that invested him already.
Sorry, I’m a bit confused as to what you’re saying here. Why would Boyd’s ascension to WR1 have anything to do with whether Ross is brutal or not?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Pretty sure I’d read that the bengals expect this too.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Yes, and I don't get the reasoning why someone would think Ross would start over Boyd.Pretty sure I’d read that the bengals expect this too.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Same. If Ross is still part of the team I believe he’ll have a role, as a deep shot specialist. I don’t see why that would come at the expense of the slot receiver.
Johnny B. Goode
Footballguy
It was something your words seemed to suggest. Classic “those weren’t my exact words” response, but it was basically what you were saying- that he would have a difficult 2020 due to the guys surrounding him.that may be because I didn’t say that. So honestly I’m surprised to hear that I said that too.
I can see you’re just here to argue and take both sides so I will let you argue on both sides
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Oh crap I accidentally wrote Boyd when I meant to write Higgins. My bad fellassorry, you expect Ross to start over Boyd? That would be a very odd development, so I just want to make sure I’m understanding you correctly here.
Ross was a guy the Bengals were reportedly trying to deal, so I don’t feel like they’re that invested him already.
Sorry, I’m a bit confused as to what you’re saying here. Why would Boyd’s ascension to WR1 have anything to do with whether Ross is brutal or not?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Man, this was such a harmonious topic too.
what I said & what you said I said were 100% different things. I’m here to engage in discussion, not “argue both sides“ (whatever that means)
I offered a pretty detailed explanation as to what I thought the target share in Cinci should look like, which you summarized as somehow saying he won’t see the field
i fail to see why you’d get bent out of shape like this, but I do see that I was wrong to take you off ignore. My bad. Won’t happen again.
Have a nice day.
Johnny B. Goode
Footballguy
ClassicMan, this was such a harmonious topic too.
what I said & what you said I said were 100% different things. I’m here to engage in discussion, not “argue both sides“ (whatever that means)
I offered a pretty detailed explanation as to what I thought the target share in Cinci should look like, which you summarized as somehow saying he won’t see the field
i fail to see why you’d get bent out of shape like this, but I do see that I was wrong to take you off ignore. My bad. Won’t happen again.
Have a nice day.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
This is where I was. That next tier of Pittman, Aikuk, and Edwards plus IDP's always seemed like such a strong consolation prize I actually ended up trading down a bunch and not feeling the need to trade up, every time missing Higgins.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I probably like Pitman more. And from what I’m hearing lately Ayuk as well, but that’s probably a coin flip with Higgins.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don’t disagree that he’s likely not going to be putting up huge numbers as a rookie but this is the second time you’ve called him a “day 2 pick” to downplay him. While that is technically true he was the first pick of round 2, so it’s a bit disingenuous.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It wasn’t disingenuous at all. He fell behind quite a few other receivers. My understanding is that it was because of two factors (off the line burst & route running)
you're reading into that way too much. I could have as easily said “why he fell behind (list of WRs taken before him)” but that’s too much to type.
i didn’t say it to denigrate him, just a statement of fact. You’re getting way too deep in assuming there was anything to that but a factual statement.
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