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WR Tee Higgins, CIN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
jm192
Footballguy
I really liked him in college. My non-football trained eyes would have put him at 4 behind Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs.
Fantastic landing spot. Green is 32, oft-injured, and won't be in Cincy for much longer. Boyd is a really nice WR but doesn't look like a #1 guy. Obviously Burrow seems like a future star. I think the depth at the position hurts Higgins, and he's not really done much in camp. I'll be ecstatic to snag him in the 2nd round of a rookie draft.
Fantastic landing spot. Green is 32, oft-injured, and won't be in Cincy for much longer. Boyd is a really nice WR but doesn't look like a #1 guy. Obviously Burrow seems like a future star. I think the depth at the position hurts Higgins, and he's not really done much in camp. I'll be ecstatic to snag him in the 2nd round of a rookie draft.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Why do you say this? He’s had back to back 1000 yard seasons with mediocre QB play, much of which while drawing top coverage in Green’s absence.
he’s durable & runs excellent routes, and should be a perfect fit for Burrow playing out of the slot.
i think Boyd still has upside to grow into, and with more consistent QB play (and hopefully other receivers stepping up to draw some attention) he could easily leap into the next tier.
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strong
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy said:
he's solid, but in his 4th year and as the clear #1 on the team, i wanted to see more from him.
he still had solid numbers but for my money, he didn't really take that next step. he was 7th in targets, 22nd in yards, 23rd in standard scoring and... 94th in yards per target. ouch.
the bengals grabbing a WR with WR1 upside in the 2nd suggests the bengals feel the same...
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The QB play had 90% to do with that though, which is seeming why they drafted Burrow.
Boyd’s production doesn’t live in a vacuum.
And Higgins hasn’t been good enough in camp to be listed with the starters so I’m not sure how he’s got “WR1 upside”. He’s been battling a hammy & is said to be a “rotational player” right now.
strong
Footballguy
i agree that the QB suppressed his overall numbers some but several receivers outperformed him with similarly bad QB play.
jarvis landry, allen robinson, DJ moore, devante parker, courtland sutton all outperformed boyd by a wide margin with similarly poor QB play. and only robinson had more targets...
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I'm not sure you're analyzing the data well - lots of apples and oranges happening here. Boyd was called on to play on the outside when AJ Green went down. He then dealt with not just inconsistent QB play but switching from Dalton to Finley, and the OL was decimated with injuries.
I have ARob in dynasty - love the guy. He had a QB who consistently threw behind him, and IMO left a lot of yards on the field. But at least it was consistent. It was the same QB, with a relatively healthy OL.
Judging Boyd's ceiling by 2019 or 2018 seems shortsighted, IMO.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think strong is reading the tea leaves correctly.
Tyler Boyd is a fine slot WR but I dont think he is a #1 WR for a NFL team except out of necessity. I dont think Boyd would have so many targets if the other WR had been healthy. What Boyd did with that opportunity.
As far as the QB play goes Dakton played 13 games last year and he has put up much better numbers prior to last season. So Botd being his primary target didnt help Dalton perform as well as he has with better weapons to work with.
Boyd himself was better in 2018 from a efficiency stand point with AJ Green playing 9 games.
60% catch rate for Boyd in 2019 compared to 70% on 2018. 7.1 yards per target on 2019 compared to 9.5 yards per target in 2018.
The targets should go down and hopefully Boyd's efficiency returns with less attention from the defense and improve QB play.
Boyd certainly valuable for fantasy football but these things do not point to Boyd being an ascending player.
Tyler Boyd is a fine slot WR but I dont think he is a #1 WR for a NFL team except out of necessity. I dont think Boyd would have so many targets if the other WR had been healthy. What Boyd did with that opportunity.
As far as the QB play goes Dakton played 13 games last year and he has put up much better numbers prior to last season. So Botd being his primary target didnt help Dalton perform as well as he has with better weapons to work with.
Boyd himself was better in 2018 from a efficiency stand point with AJ Green playing 9 games.
60% catch rate for Boyd in 2019 compared to 70% on 2018. 7.1 yards per target on 2019 compared to 9.5 yards per target in 2018.
The targets should go down and hopefully Boyd's efficiency returns with less attention from the defense and improve QB play.
Boyd certainly valuable for fantasy football but these things do not point to Boyd being an ascending player.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don't disagree that Boyd is better with a capable outside receiver.
It aligns with what I was saying - his production decreased when he was moved around the field & with poor QB play. I believe we haven't seen Boyd's ceiling, so in that light I disagree he's not an ascending player.
As for Higgins, he will very likely be better than Tate or Ross, both players the Bengals have soured on a little. Will he be the WR1 in Cinci at some point? I have no idea.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
How is Boyd going to get more than 148 targets he had last year?
2019 is his ceiling. I doubt he ever gets that many targets again. His efficiency decreased with the volume.
If he were to be a #1 WR then why does he need other WR to perform at a higher level? Why is it bad that the Bengals are moving him around and having him play all of the WR positions?
Andy Dalton played 13 of their games. He had his worst year statistically with Boyd as his main weapon.
Do you have any reason why you think Boyd is an ascending player?
I don't really have a strong opinion about Higgins. Some compare him to AJ Green and that seems pretty generous. He wasn't a 1st round pick.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not saying he will. But all targets aren't created equally. I believe he'll produce more with less given quality QB play and a consistent slot role.
Sorry if that was unclear.
i've given several reasons why I believe Boyd is an ascending player. Mostly to do with circumstances around him over the last 2 seasons, where he's produced despite the lack of talent around him rather than, as you seem to assert, because of the lack of talent around him.
If he stays in the slot & Burrow targets him ~125x, I could easily see his yards and TDs being improved, even on fewer receptions.
Like you, I don't know what Higgins is, but if healthy he should be an upgrade over Ross or Tate - at least the Bengals seem to believe that.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Maybe we are talking about different things then. When you say Boyd is an ascending player I think of a player who is improving year over year and not just in terms of gross stats. I also think of a player who is climbing the depth chart and becoming their teams number one WR as well as the money and accolades that come along with that.
For me a WR #1 for a NFL team is a player who is good enough to demand double coverage and performs well anyways. Can win those double teams some times. Boyd got that opportunity and his numbers slipped Boyds aDot was 8 yards which was tied for 162 in the league last year according to this. When you compare Boyds numbers to other WR with similarly low aDot and 100 or more targets like Robert Woods, Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Jamison Crowder, Cole Beasley he is no where close to Woods Kupp and Thomas in terms of efficiency and more similar to Crowder and Beasley. This is kind of what strong was talking about too.
Maybe the difference is independent of Boyd and improved QB play is all it takes for Boyds numbers to be more efficient. Boyd was much better in 2018 from a efficiency stand point and had close to the same yards on 14 fewer receptions, so what you are saying has already happened before with Dalton playing 2 fewer games that season.
When you say ascending player I also think of one who is going to get increased opportunity and that seems unlikely to be the case for Boyd.
The Bengals did sign him to a 4 year extension so he is part of their long term plans. He got a similar contract to Crowder. They didn't pay him like a star WR.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Good call my friend. I am considering him in terms of where he's at and what he's capable of doing statistically.
I am viewing it as a fantasy football asset thing, not a RL WR thing.
I do think he is capable of becoming a better player - I do not believe he will ascend to WR1 for the Bengals, other than a tenancy for some teams/offensive schemes to "feature" the slot guy as a centerpiece of production.
I think he may well have a better season than AJ Green, and that's because of, not in spite of Green's presence.
So I think we were having 2 different discussions there but largely agree about Boyd.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If AJ Green is healthy I expect him to be the Bengals #1 WR and for Boyd to be their #2 in 2020.
Green had all last year to recover. Reportedly could have come back around mid season but why risk it on a lost season? Green should be as fresh and healthy as he can be by now.
If Green does miss games then I would expect Boyd to be the highest targeted Bengals WR again. So in that sense the #1 but this opens the door for Higgins to try to ascend to that position in the pecking order that I do not expect to happen in 2020 but perhaps in 2021 if Green is out of the picture.
Higgins still needs to pass Tate on the depth chart before that could happen, even if Green is unavailable.
Green had all last year to recover. Reportedly could have come back around mid season but why risk it on a lost season? Green should be as fresh and healthy as he can be by now.
If Green does miss games then I would expect Boyd to be the highest targeted Bengals WR again. So in that sense the #1 but this opens the door for Higgins to try to ascend to that position in the pecking order that I do not expect to happen in 2020 but perhaps in 2021 if Green is out of the picture.
Higgins still needs to pass Tate on the depth chart before that could happen, even if Green is unavailable.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
From watching the game, I kept thinking they were throwing to the TE when he would get targeted. I am not sure if it was his big frame, slow movements, or what it was. I think he made some good grabs on the sideline in this game.
-jb-
Footballguy
az_prof
Footballguy
I was glad to see him getting some targets and making some catches. In my experience, when rookies get involved early it is a good sign of future success. Guys who gets injured or can't impress enough in practice to get on the field and get touches often bust. So this is a good first sign and I thought he looked ok. He looked bigger than I thought he looked in the college film.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The Bengals were able to run 92 offensive plays in their game against the Browns. That is like 150% of an average game.
WR snap counts and utilization
T Boyd WR 78 85% 8 targets 7 receptions 72 yards 10.3 ypr 1 TD
T Higgins WR 60 65% 6 targets 3 receptions 35 yards 11.7 ypr
A Green WR 57 62% 13 targets 3 receptions 29 yards 9.7 ypr
M Thomas WR 32 35% 4 targets 4 receptions 31 yards 7.8 ypr 1 TD
J Ross WR 28 30% 2 targets 0
A Erickson WR 8 9%
Higgins played the 2nd most snaps of the WR and Green does not seem to be his former self.
WR snap counts and utilization
T Boyd WR 78 85% 8 targets 7 receptions 72 yards 10.3 ypr 1 TD
T Higgins WR 60 65% 6 targets 3 receptions 35 yards 11.7 ypr
A Green WR 57 62% 13 targets 3 receptions 29 yards 9.7 ypr
M Thomas WR 32 35% 4 targets 4 receptions 31 yards 7.8 ypr 1 TD
J Ross WR 28 30% 2 targets 0
A Erickson WR 8 9%
Higgins played the 2nd most snaps of the WR and Green does not seem to be his former self.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
John Ross INACTIVE coaching decision.
Higgins has gotten a high percent of snaps.
Pick him up if he's available because he won't in a few weeks.
Higgins has gotten a high percent of snaps.
Pick him up if he's available because he won't in a few weeks.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Nice game by Higgins. I’m glad I started Burrow - I think my skepticism was misplaced in Higgins 2020 prospects. That said, AJG looks kinda washed, so that has to help.
GoBirds
Footballguy
I-ROK
Footballguy
I respect your rankings a lot and I appreciate you making it public. I found myself trying to trade up everywhere this offseason in round 2 to get him. Missed in one league and ended up trading Henderson for him (Henderson looks pretty darn good now, but I am happy with Higgins’ upside) and in the other league he fell to me anyways in round 2. Stoked to see him arrive today. He looks so good. I get the same feeling I got watching AJ Brown play last year
I-ROK
Footballguy
In this offense, with Burrow and if they can get an OL/rushing game- top 10. Not saying he fill finish top 10 as a rookie but without AJG, and with some offensive line improvements he could be a superstar
Zyphros
Footballguy
Truebluey
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
tombonneau
Footballguy
The Frankman
Footballguy
More snaps than AJ Green, the guy whose role he should cannibalize. Yeah, I'm on Higgins now and if Burrow is going to throw 40+ times a game others should be also.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
AJ has aged quickly. I think for dynasty Higgins has WR #1 potential.
Right now it looks like he has earned goal line snaps/scores.
I really like the kid especially with 'Gun-Slinger' Joe at QB.
They have potential to form a classic QB/WR combo going forward.
Honestly, with no major targets being pushed to RB/TE, I think the Bengals could have 3 WR's in the top-40. I'm not sure Higgins will cannibalize Green, so much as just have his own thing. The pie could have 4,500+ yards in it, which is probably more than even the biggest Burrow fans were expecting in year 1.
Right now I'd say Green and Boyd are WR3s, and Higgins is a WR5, but there is upside for more for all 3.
ETA: Dynasty wise, Higgins has sky high upside, and is the Bengals WR I'd want most.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'm usually leery of rookies in Redraft but I'm making an exception and as a WR6 on my bench, just the kind of upside you are looking for from a spot that's not likely to start often for me. Don't think folks in my league have caught on that AJ is declining and I was more of the opinion AJ was a buy low until I saw Higgins and just the natural progression he is making.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Judging from last week it looks like Boyd and Higgins are the guys to have among those receivers.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes, definitely. But as bad as AJG has looked, it still might take an AJG injury for the ceiling to get higher.Efritch4 said:
I claimed him in the 1st waiver run this week & hope for good things down the stretch. I do have a suspicion that the Bengals D will gel a little more. I thought that they were an improving unit, and they have underachieved to date (and against not amazing competition at times so...).
I also believe it’s a good buy-low window on Mixon. At some point some of these shots they take will result in DPI/1st & goal situations. That should lead to some cheap TDs. And if as mentioned the D comes together a little more, they should be in positive game scripts.
that said, AJG looks slow and very coverable these days. The games I’ve seen, he’s been abused by opposing DBs and can’t get separation. This leaves the door wide open for Boyd & Higgins to dominate catches. We may be witnessing the end of AJG as a dominant player in real time.
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tombonneau
Footballguy
Has he already added more muscle to his frame?
https://youtu.be/MOnhJ4UAmMk
Looks sturdier than he did in his college tape but I might be misremembering.
https://youtu.be/MOnhJ4UAmMk
Looks sturdier than he did in his college tape but I might be misremembering.
